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Goliath's Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse
A vast and unprecedented survey of societal collapse—stretching from the Bronze Age to the age of silicon—that digs through the ruins of fallen societies to understand the root causes of their downfall and the most dire consequences for our future
Stepping back to look at our precariously interdependent global society of today—with the threat of nuclear war ever present and the world heating up faster than it did before the Great Permian Extinction, which wiped away 80–90 percent of life on Earth—one couldn’t be blamed for Will we make it?
Addressing this question with the seriousness it demands, Cambridge scholar Luke Kemp conducts a historical autopsy that stretches across five millennia, and more than 440 societal lifespans, from the first Egyptian dynasty to the modern-day United Kingdom, using the latest discoveries from archaeology and anthropology to reveal profound and often counterintuitive insights into why exactly societies fail.
While books like Jared Diamond’s Collapse zoom in on only a few case studies, Kemp’s embrace of a “deep systems” approach, availing himself of the largest dataset possible, allows him to discover the broader trends, and deeper causes, of collapse that pose future risks—without abandoning the gripping historical narratives that bring these pages alive.
Goliath’s Curse is a stark reminder that there are both bright and dark sides to societal collapse—that it is not necessarily a reversion to chaos or a dark age—and that making a more resilient world may well mean making a more just one.
Stepping back to look at our precariously interdependent global society of today—with the threat of nuclear war ever present and the world heating up faster than it did before the Great Permian Extinction, which wiped away 80–90 percent of life on Earth—one couldn’t be blamed for Will we make it?
Addressing this question with the seriousness it demands, Cambridge scholar Luke Kemp conducts a historical autopsy that stretches across five millennia, and more than 440 societal lifespans, from the first Egyptian dynasty to the modern-day United Kingdom, using the latest discoveries from archaeology and anthropology to reveal profound and often counterintuitive insights into why exactly societies fail.
While books like Jared Diamond’s Collapse zoom in on only a few case studies, Kemp’s embrace of a “deep systems” approach, availing himself of the largest dataset possible, allows him to discover the broader trends, and deeper causes, of collapse that pose future risks—without abandoning the gripping historical narratives that bring these pages alive.
Goliath’s Curse is a stark reminder that there are both bright and dark sides to societal collapse—that it is not necessarily a reversion to chaos or a dark age—and that making a more resilient world may well mean making a more just one.
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Published September 23, 2025
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August 10, 2025
Thorough, timely, and readable; made for the present moment.
Given the broad general interest in the history of societal collapse and potential lessons for humanity’s future, it’s surprising how few good books there are on the subject. There’s Joseph Tainter’s The Collapse of Complex Societies (1988), but that’s primarily academic, speaks at best indirectly to today’s challenges, and offers a conclusion (societies collapse due to diminishing returns on societal complexity) that, while insightful, still seems somewhat incomplete. There’s Jared Diamond’s Collapse (2005), but this bases its conclusions on a surprisingly small number of case studies, and subject matter specialists as well as more recent data have called into question many of the analyses (e.g. regarding Easter Island). What we’ve long needed is a book that’s at once thorough (surveying collapse throughout the vast span of human history, with a large number of case studies from different places), readable, and that also ties the lessons from past collapses smoothly into a detailed analysis of our present-day predicament (not only climate change, but also other issues such as nuclear weapons and the rapid development of AI). In Goliath’s Curse, Luke Kemp more or less provides us with exactly this book.
I’ll not spoil the book and its conclusions too much, but I’ll say a few more things. In my view Kemp does a remarkable job at explaining the history in detail while keeping the text clear, engaging, and even gripping. He engages deeply with the latest research (some of which he was personally involved in), including decades’ worth of more recent archaeological results and new large-scale data compilations which neither Tainter nor Diamond had access to. In identifying the entity that is collapsing not as “society” but rather as a “Goliath” (read the book to find out what the latter is), Kemp not only provides a compelling theory but also neatly manages to resolve some conceptual tensions that have long plagued the field of collapse research (see e.g. the conflict between Diamond and the authors of the 2009 book Questioning Collapse). Finally, he connects all this into a clearly outlined view of the present-day human predicament. He explains more clearly than most where the risks we face today are actually coming from, and, while overall pessimistic, presents clear prescriptions for how we might still turn the wheel around.
Beyond collapse specifically, the book also does well as a general “big history” book. I’d say it very much holds its own against heavy hitters like Diamond’s Guns, Germs, and Steel and Graeber and Wengrow’s The Dawn of Everything, and the story it tells about the history of humanity is arguably more compelling --- and certainly more timely --- than both.
5/5.
Given the broad general interest in the history of societal collapse and potential lessons for humanity’s future, it’s surprising how few good books there are on the subject. There’s Joseph Tainter’s The Collapse of Complex Societies (1988), but that’s primarily academic, speaks at best indirectly to today’s challenges, and offers a conclusion (societies collapse due to diminishing returns on societal complexity) that, while insightful, still seems somewhat incomplete. There’s Jared Diamond’s Collapse (2005), but this bases its conclusions on a surprisingly small number of case studies, and subject matter specialists as well as more recent data have called into question many of the analyses (e.g. regarding Easter Island). What we’ve long needed is a book that’s at once thorough (surveying collapse throughout the vast span of human history, with a large number of case studies from different places), readable, and that also ties the lessons from past collapses smoothly into a detailed analysis of our present-day predicament (not only climate change, but also other issues such as nuclear weapons and the rapid development of AI). In Goliath’s Curse, Luke Kemp more or less provides us with exactly this book.
I’ll not spoil the book and its conclusions too much, but I’ll say a few more things. In my view Kemp does a remarkable job at explaining the history in detail while keeping the text clear, engaging, and even gripping. He engages deeply with the latest research (some of which he was personally involved in), including decades’ worth of more recent archaeological results and new large-scale data compilations which neither Tainter nor Diamond had access to. In identifying the entity that is collapsing not as “society” but rather as a “Goliath” (read the book to find out what the latter is), Kemp not only provides a compelling theory but also neatly manages to resolve some conceptual tensions that have long plagued the field of collapse research (see e.g. the conflict between Diamond and the authors of the 2009 book Questioning Collapse). Finally, he connects all this into a clearly outlined view of the present-day human predicament. He explains more clearly than most where the risks we face today are actually coming from, and, while overall pessimistic, presents clear prescriptions for how we might still turn the wheel around.
Beyond collapse specifically, the book also does well as a general “big history” book. I’d say it very much holds its own against heavy hitters like Diamond’s Guns, Germs, and Steel and Graeber and Wengrow’s The Dawn of Everything, and the story it tells about the history of humanity is arguably more compelling --- and certainly more timely --- than both.
5/5.
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December 16, 2025Existential risks seems to be fashionable area of academic studies at the moment. The reason is obvious. I wanted to understand what a specialist in the area has to say to the wider public. This book has quenched by thirst so to speak, but left me ambivalent. It was an easy read as it is well written. But I did not learn much more about those proverbial existential risks compared to what I've already absorbed through osmosis. The most interesting part was the author's view on a long history of humanity as a the context of evolving hierarchical structures that he refers to as 'Goliath' that culminated in states. Broadly the story he tells is well known. But he widens it with global perspective (a lot of information of native American societies and institutions was interesting and new to me); also there are new tools like a database of different states through a few millenniums and their collapses that the author widely uses. Also he uses a different terminology borrowed from psychology and some of his terms I guess have been developed either by him or in his field.
Briefly, the story is that the humans were very nice to each other, egalitarian and did not have any steady hierarchies at all when they were hunters/gatherers. Occasionally an evolution would produce someone with a 'dark triad' personality (*). This person would try to grab power but would be swiftly removed or sometimes just killed by friendly and amiable egalitarian majority. However, somehow, nonone knows exactly how and why, the humanity has developed agriculture that has lead to all sorts of disasters for health, but has created an additional surplus product, population growth and a result - wealth inequality. Here all of this is told with slightly different spin: surplus is called 'lootable resources'. It could be anything of a value not only grain: any substance that is mobile, can be stored and easy to steal. In general, what has created stable hierarchical structures was 'Goliath fuel' (author's term) : Lootable resources, monopolizable weapons, and 'caged' land (borders and private ownership of land I guess). Due to all of this 'evolutionary backsliding: from Our egalitarianism' has unfortunately happened and still with us. A status has become important, states evolved as raider's tools according to the author. 'That wasteful consumption to gain and signal status easily becomes a preoccupation with growth. And people possessing 'dark triad' have become the reach and powerful accordingly.
The wars started, and External threats change our brains in another way. They make us more open to being dominated. Authoritarianism – obedience to high-status authorities and the desire to punish rule-breakers – increases when individuals face a threat to their safety and security.
Not all was bad and we have achieved some progress. But it is not a teleology: any achievement was fought by progressive part of the population. The progress has to be won. Anyway here we are. And we face a number of existential risks: nuclear, climate and AI. All of it mainly due to the Goliath. But we can fight it collectively as it is not our fate.
And the most disappointed bit was the author's proposed plan of actions. Or rather there is no proposed plan. Maybe it was very naive of me to expect something more concrete. But his broad brush ideas in this areas sounds not simply common sense, but almost impotent apart from a rhetorical flame at least in a way how it is written on the page. I can understand that this might not be the main purpose of the book. However if the author decided to include it, it would be nice to have something a bit more concrete, even example from his personal experience that might be beneficial.
This is the closest it gets to something concrete:
We must use technology to help us run open democracy at scale (with widespread use of deliberative assemblies and juries) and keep inequality in check. Those who are worried about the rise of populism need to start listening to the anger of the people around them rather than vilifying them. They need to offer a path that is more appealing than an authoritarian impulse fed by scapegoating minorities, protestors, and immigrants. That is not one based on bland pleas for hope or growth. It requires real, concrete change: introduce wealth taxes and progressive taxation; crack down on corruption (including banning legalized bribery like the revolving door between politics and industry); and give people a genuine direct say in government and workplaces through open democracy. Such changes are eventually likely to be embraced and celebrated. When people speak of ‘making America great again’ they are thinking of the 1950s, a time when the tax on the highest income bracket was over 90 per cent, unionization was high, and wealth inequality was low. When people think of the glory of Classical Greece, they are usually thinking of Athenian democracy and its egalitarian culture. Now we have the opportunity to build societies without the patriarchy and racism of the 1950s US, or the slavery of Athens, and with far greater material comfort and well-being.'
I have had a few problems with 1) 'Those who are worried about the rise of populism need to start listening to the anger of the people around them rather than vilifying them.' I sounds quite outdated. People were talking like that in 2016 maybe. Since then every single party and every politician makes a point of 'listening and not vilifying' that has actually lead to some policies that might at the end hurt the most those people who are 'listened' to. Brexit is a good example as well as what is going on in America. 2)' introduce wealth taxes and progressive taxation; crack down on corruption (including banning legalized bribery like the revolving door between politics and industry); and give people a genuine direct say in government and workplaces through open democracy' - apart from taxation the populists everywhere use the same slogans and the same language. But they mean something that might be different was this author means. As far as the voter is concerned fight with corruption and freedom does discriminate between the rhetorics of right and left.
But there rest what the author has to say is even less powerful:
'First, I propose a simple pledge to not be a dick. This is a pledge to not work for, invest in, or support any firm, institute, or individual that significantly contributes to global catastrophic risk. Don’t work for an Agent of Doom, whether it is an AGI lab, a fossil-fuel company, or an arms manufacturer. The idea that you are going to change an Agent of Doom from the inside is nonsense, and the excuse of ‘if I don’t do it someone else will’ is the sort of bullshit used by guards at concentration camps. Hold yourself to a higher standard. Stopping arms races, status races, and races to the bottom begins when each of us refuses to get trapped in them.
Corporations can and should reorganize themselves to be more internally democratic and minimize the pay discrepancies between the CEO and interns (who should be paid).
It is time to say ‘enough’. It is time to realize the bright and terrifying truth: no gods, kings, heroes, or masters are going to save us. Slaying Goliath and avoiding evolutionary suicide is, like all great achievements, going to be a collective action. It is on us. It is going to take the thankless, unglamorous work of having difficult conversations with your friends, giving up power, trusting your fellow citizens rather than a strongman leader when you’re scared, going into the streets even when you are comfortable at home, and taking an ethical stand even if it might cost you your job. Each of those little acts is another stone flung at Goliath, and each crack in its skull is a doorway to freedom. The stand will be worth it. A world free of nuclear weapons, carbon emissions, killer robots, and the threat of collapse, one full of genuine democracy and economic equality, is no utopia.'
I look forward to a moment when the corporations would reorganise themselves to avoid hierarchical structures and do the right thing. As far as the rest, I think I complied already: I am not a 'dick' in his definition and I've been having a 'difficult conversation' over here in this review.
(*)
Dark triad: Narcissism is characterized by grandiosity, pride, egotism, and a lack of empathy. Machiavellianism is characterized by manipulativeness, indifference to morality, lack of empathy, and a calculated focus on self-interest. Psychopathy is characterized by continuous antisocial behavior, impulsivity, selfishness, callous and unemotional traits, and remorselessness - Wiki).
Briefly, the story is that the humans were very nice to each other, egalitarian and did not have any steady hierarchies at all when they were hunters/gatherers. Occasionally an evolution would produce someone with a 'dark triad' personality (*). This person would try to grab power but would be swiftly removed or sometimes just killed by friendly and amiable egalitarian majority. However, somehow, nonone knows exactly how and why, the humanity has developed agriculture that has lead to all sorts of disasters for health, but has created an additional surplus product, population growth and a result - wealth inequality. Here all of this is told with slightly different spin: surplus is called 'lootable resources'. It could be anything of a value not only grain: any substance that is mobile, can be stored and easy to steal. In general, what has created stable hierarchical structures was 'Goliath fuel' (author's term) : Lootable resources, monopolizable weapons, and 'caged' land (borders and private ownership of land I guess). Due to all of this 'evolutionary backsliding: from Our egalitarianism' has unfortunately happened and still with us. A status has become important, states evolved as raider's tools according to the author. 'That wasteful consumption to gain and signal status easily becomes a preoccupation with growth. And people possessing 'dark triad' have become the reach and powerful accordingly.
The wars started, and External threats change our brains in another way. They make us more open to being dominated. Authoritarianism – obedience to high-status authorities and the desire to punish rule-breakers – increases when individuals face a threat to their safety and security.
Not all was bad and we have achieved some progress. But it is not a teleology: any achievement was fought by progressive part of the population. The progress has to be won. Anyway here we are. And we face a number of existential risks: nuclear, climate and AI. All of it mainly due to the Goliath. But we can fight it collectively as it is not our fate.
And the most disappointed bit was the author's proposed plan of actions. Or rather there is no proposed plan. Maybe it was very naive of me to expect something more concrete. But his broad brush ideas in this areas sounds not simply common sense, but almost impotent apart from a rhetorical flame at least in a way how it is written on the page. I can understand that this might not be the main purpose of the book. However if the author decided to include it, it would be nice to have something a bit more concrete, even example from his personal experience that might be beneficial.
This is the closest it gets to something concrete:
We must use technology to help us run open democracy at scale (with widespread use of deliberative assemblies and juries) and keep inequality in check. Those who are worried about the rise of populism need to start listening to the anger of the people around them rather than vilifying them. They need to offer a path that is more appealing than an authoritarian impulse fed by scapegoating minorities, protestors, and immigrants. That is not one based on bland pleas for hope or growth. It requires real, concrete change: introduce wealth taxes and progressive taxation; crack down on corruption (including banning legalized bribery like the revolving door between politics and industry); and give people a genuine direct say in government and workplaces through open democracy. Such changes are eventually likely to be embraced and celebrated. When people speak of ‘making America great again’ they are thinking of the 1950s, a time when the tax on the highest income bracket was over 90 per cent, unionization was high, and wealth inequality was low. When people think of the glory of Classical Greece, they are usually thinking of Athenian democracy and its egalitarian culture. Now we have the opportunity to build societies without the patriarchy and racism of the 1950s US, or the slavery of Athens, and with far greater material comfort and well-being.'
I have had a few problems with 1) 'Those who are worried about the rise of populism need to start listening to the anger of the people around them rather than vilifying them.' I sounds quite outdated. People were talking like that in 2016 maybe. Since then every single party and every politician makes a point of 'listening and not vilifying' that has actually lead to some policies that might at the end hurt the most those people who are 'listened' to. Brexit is a good example as well as what is going on in America. 2)' introduce wealth taxes and progressive taxation; crack down on corruption (including banning legalized bribery like the revolving door between politics and industry); and give people a genuine direct say in government and workplaces through open democracy' - apart from taxation the populists everywhere use the same slogans and the same language. But they mean something that might be different was this author means. As far as the voter is concerned fight with corruption and freedom does discriminate between the rhetorics of right and left.
But there rest what the author has to say is even less powerful:
'First, I propose a simple pledge to not be a dick. This is a pledge to not work for, invest in, or support any firm, institute, or individual that significantly contributes to global catastrophic risk. Don’t work for an Agent of Doom, whether it is an AGI lab, a fossil-fuel company, or an arms manufacturer. The idea that you are going to change an Agent of Doom from the inside is nonsense, and the excuse of ‘if I don’t do it someone else will’ is the sort of bullshit used by guards at concentration camps. Hold yourself to a higher standard. Stopping arms races, status races, and races to the bottom begins when each of us refuses to get trapped in them.
Corporations can and should reorganize themselves to be more internally democratic and minimize the pay discrepancies between the CEO and interns (who should be paid).
It is time to say ‘enough’. It is time to realize the bright and terrifying truth: no gods, kings, heroes, or masters are going to save us. Slaying Goliath and avoiding evolutionary suicide is, like all great achievements, going to be a collective action. It is on us. It is going to take the thankless, unglamorous work of having difficult conversations with your friends, giving up power, trusting your fellow citizens rather than a strongman leader when you’re scared, going into the streets even when you are comfortable at home, and taking an ethical stand even if it might cost you your job. Each of those little acts is another stone flung at Goliath, and each crack in its skull is a doorway to freedom. The stand will be worth it. A world free of nuclear weapons, carbon emissions, killer robots, and the threat of collapse, one full of genuine democracy and economic equality, is no utopia.'
I look forward to a moment when the corporations would reorganise themselves to avoid hierarchical structures and do the right thing. As far as the rest, I think I complied already: I am not a 'dick' in his definition and I've been having a 'difficult conversation' over here in this review.
(*)
Dark triad: Narcissism is characterized by grandiosity, pride, egotism, and a lack of empathy. Machiavellianism is characterized by manipulativeness, indifference to morality, lack of empathy, and a calculated focus on self-interest. Psychopathy is characterized by continuous antisocial behavior, impulsivity, selfishness, callous and unemotional traits, and remorselessness - Wiki).
August 17, 2025
4.5/5 rounding down for Goodreads.
Mix of world history and current+future politics. Out of 450 pages (excluding notes) its roughly 3oo pages historical and 150 current day. Writing style is good anc clear in my opinion, and the notes section is very extensive. It's fairly on the left in tone as well.
Historical - On the historical side the book covers societal collapses across the world starting in the Bronze Age and going onto the fall of the European colonial empires. Kemp's main theory is that the cause of societies collapsing is a mix of increasing wealth inequality, causing ordinary people to either leave or rebel, and elite status competition which led to civil wars, coups, corruption etc. These weaken a society so when a problem arrives (mainly climatic like a drought or an earthquake, or outside invaders like the Spanish arriving in the Americas) that society can't survive it. In Kemp's view societies that are more equal and democratic are more likely to survive a crisis.
Kemp's other main theory is for the vast majority of people historically societal collapse wasn't that bad, maybe even a positive. Kemp is very positive about the lifestyles of nomadic hunter gatherers and pre-agricultural life (personally I think he over eggs it a bit). The main point is that since empires and kingdoms extracted more and more wealth from ordinary people (while helping the elite with things like tax breaks) them collapsing meant people tended to be better off. If for example you were a rural farmer the empire/kingdom you were in collapsing during the Bronze Age Collapse mainly meant the tax man showed up less and fewer soldiers rounding you up to do some forced labour for the king. In Kemp's view most of the violence in a societal collapse is from a small number of people trying to re-establish power and become the new top dog, not banditry or panic. (Speaking as a 21st century Brit, I find Kemp's view of societal collapse to be a bit too positive)
Current day/future - Here Kemp is quite doomer about the future. Mainly due to the larger nature of the threats (AI, climate change, nuclear weapons) and the the increasingly interconnected and concentrated nature of the world. His predications are either global societal collapse, an increasingly unequal autorcratic world backed up by ever stronger surveillance (probably the most likely imo), or least likely, actually solving the problems. Kemp's solutions are mainly more democracy, more transparency in politics, attempting to deal with wealth inequality with things like higher taxes and regulations on big business etc.
Mix of world history and current+future politics. Out of 450 pages (excluding notes) its roughly 3oo pages historical and 150 current day. Writing style is good anc clear in my opinion, and the notes section is very extensive. It's fairly on the left in tone as well.
Historical - On the historical side the book covers societal collapses across the world starting in the Bronze Age and going onto the fall of the European colonial empires. Kemp's main theory is that the cause of societies collapsing is a mix of increasing wealth inequality, causing ordinary people to either leave or rebel, and elite status competition which led to civil wars, coups, corruption etc. These weaken a society so when a problem arrives (mainly climatic like a drought or an earthquake, or outside invaders like the Spanish arriving in the Americas) that society can't survive it. In Kemp's view societies that are more equal and democratic are more likely to survive a crisis.
Kemp's other main theory is for the vast majority of people historically societal collapse wasn't that bad, maybe even a positive. Kemp is very positive about the lifestyles of nomadic hunter gatherers and pre-agricultural life (personally I think he over eggs it a bit). The main point is that since empires and kingdoms extracted more and more wealth from ordinary people (while helping the elite with things like tax breaks) them collapsing meant people tended to be better off. If for example you were a rural farmer the empire/kingdom you were in collapsing during the Bronze Age Collapse mainly meant the tax man showed up less and fewer soldiers rounding you up to do some forced labour for the king. In Kemp's view most of the violence in a societal collapse is from a small number of people trying to re-establish power and become the new top dog, not banditry or panic. (Speaking as a 21st century Brit, I find Kemp's view of societal collapse to be a bit too positive)
Current day/future - Here Kemp is quite doomer about the future. Mainly due to the larger nature of the threats (AI, climate change, nuclear weapons) and the the increasingly interconnected and concentrated nature of the world. His predications are either global societal collapse, an increasingly unequal autorcratic world backed up by ever stronger surveillance (probably the most likely imo), or least likely, actually solving the problems. Kemp's solutions are mainly more democracy, more transparency in politics, attempting to deal with wealth inequality with things like higher taxes and regulations on big business etc.
September 16, 2025
Throughout history, the average lifespan of a state is 326 years. Large states that cover over a million square kilometres are more fragile lasting an average of 155 years.
This fascinating book examines history, from the ancient Akkadian empire through to modern times, to find out why states (Goliaths) rise and fall. Without going into detail, there are a myriad of reasons, but the one that the author focused on the most is wealth inequality.
The book argues that if a society doesn't collapse due to invasion, climate change, resource depletion, or plague, then it will likely collapse due to civil unrest caused by wealth inequality. As inequality rises, the competition between the wealthy 'elite' intensifies as they start to fight over extracting wealth from an increasingly immiserated society. The result is corruption and oligarchy, which eats away at the institutional fabric of society.
Another interesting factoid from the book: until about 150 years ago, living under a state wrecks the health and happiness of the average individual. Life in a neolithic society is far healthier. As an indicator, not until the second half of 20th century was the average height of a person comparable to our pre-agricultural revolution ancestors. You can also measure it in terms of life expectancy and hours spent in leisure.
The author makes the interesting point that the health and wealth of the average person after societal collapse is generally improved. This is due the levelling of societal equality and the weakened power of governing elites, which means less wealth extraction and exploitation from the population. The book uses post-Roman Britain and post-Han Dynasty China as key examples.
The book finishes by drawing parallels with today, where the richest 1 percent of the world own almost half its wealth, 'while just eighty-one billionaires possess more wealth than the poorest half of humanity' and 'the share of global wealth for the top 1 percent swelled from 25-30 percent in the 1980s to approximately 40 percent in 2022'. Good to know.
I am usually sceptical about broad brushstroke global history books, like Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs and Steel, but there is something to be said about zooming out and analysing overarching historical trends while acknowledging there are exceptions to every rule. I enjoyed this book because the author recognised this, and noting the focus on exploitative elites causing societal collapse, I think the book perfectly fits the contemporary zeitgeist of cost-of-living issues and rising wealth inequality causing political polarisation and extremism. This book is a warning call if nothing else.
This fascinating book examines history, from the ancient Akkadian empire through to modern times, to find out why states (Goliaths) rise and fall. Without going into detail, there are a myriad of reasons, but the one that the author focused on the most is wealth inequality.
The book argues that if a society doesn't collapse due to invasion, climate change, resource depletion, or plague, then it will likely collapse due to civil unrest caused by wealth inequality. As inequality rises, the competition between the wealthy 'elite' intensifies as they start to fight over extracting wealth from an increasingly immiserated society. The result is corruption and oligarchy, which eats away at the institutional fabric of society.
Another interesting factoid from the book: until about 150 years ago, living under a state wrecks the health and happiness of the average individual. Life in a neolithic society is far healthier. As an indicator, not until the second half of 20th century was the average height of a person comparable to our pre-agricultural revolution ancestors. You can also measure it in terms of life expectancy and hours spent in leisure.
The author makes the interesting point that the health and wealth of the average person after societal collapse is generally improved. This is due the levelling of societal equality and the weakened power of governing elites, which means less wealth extraction and exploitation from the population. The book uses post-Roman Britain and post-Han Dynasty China as key examples.
The book finishes by drawing parallels with today, where the richest 1 percent of the world own almost half its wealth, 'while just eighty-one billionaires possess more wealth than the poorest half of humanity' and 'the share of global wealth for the top 1 percent swelled from 25-30 percent in the 1980s to approximately 40 percent in 2022'. Good to know.
I am usually sceptical about broad brushstroke global history books, like Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs and Steel, but there is something to be said about zooming out and analysing overarching historical trends while acknowledging there are exceptions to every rule. I enjoyed this book because the author recognised this, and noting the focus on exploitative elites causing societal collapse, I think the book perfectly fits the contemporary zeitgeist of cost-of-living issues and rising wealth inequality causing political polarisation and extremism. This book is a warning call if nothing else.
August 17, 2025
Reads as a very long academic paper with exhaustive examples of past societal collapses. I gained a better understanding of how the world works today. Essentially we're doomed. Luke finished by offering suggestions on how we minions may be able to influence the future and resist the Goliath's who dominate our lives.
Apart from the content, the audio book was very hard-going. It would have benefited from a professional reader.
Apart from the content, the audio book was very hard-going. It would have benefited from a professional reader.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
October 28, 2025
I loved this book. I'm trying to keep confirmation bias out of it, but if knowing the label made blind spots go away, we'd have a lot less of them, so this is my upfront acknowledgement. I've thought for years that hierarchy was the root of all of our social and environmental problems; I wrote a post a year or two ago about how it isn't greed or money that's the root of all evil, but hierarchy. And, well, here's a book that agrees with me and backs me up pretty comprehensively. So there.
It is pretty validating, especially since he references the relationship between hierarchy in empires and the Dark Triad -- sociopathy, narcissism and Machiavellianism -- which also seemed pretty common sense to me but I'd never heard or seen anyone say before. Double so there.
Anyway. Kemp's basic thesis is that Empires Are Bad, and not only in the ways you know about already (colonialism, violence, slavery, environmental degradation, etc.), but also in ways you didn't. Example: Did you know that heights generally decreased for even citizens of empires as they grew, because the people who lived in them had worse diets and worse health? that their life expectancy declined? That when empires collapsed, while things got a lot worse for the elites who ran them -- obviously, the common people who survived generally improved their economic situation, physical health and happiness? That collapse has, generally, been a positive thing for most people throughout most of human history?
Me either, but it sure makes sense. Of course, it's the elite record of collapse we have now in our written records, so it's not the message we've been given.
I also learned that what predicts collapse isn't environmental degradation or collapsing treasuries, but inequality: the bigger the gap between the elites and the rest of the empire's citizens, the more likely it's collapse and the worse that collapse is likely to be.
This cheerier view of collapse does not extend to our current situation for a few reasons: 1) what he calls the 'rungless ladder' -- the more we 'develop,' the more we lose our prior skills, and the less we have to fall back on if our societies no longer provide the services we rely on; 2) there is nowhere for most of us to escape to as our states and the empires they belong to effectively cover the globe. So he does not suggest that we passively sit around and await the next collapse to release us from the current system, nor does he suggest stockpiling canned goods and ammunition, since those who have survived previous collapses have been those who invested in their relationships and communities, not those who had the best bunkers. Also, as others have previously argued, he points out that we have used up our easily accessible fossil fuels and it's not clear that the world could re-industrialize without them, if the collapse was significant. Rather, he lists some ideas for working against dominance and hierarchy and towards equality and democracy to make the current system and the goods it provides more sustainable and less damaging.
It's a good argument and very persuasive.
A few minor caveats:
1) He misses human exceptionalism almost entirely, but that's a big part of this.
2) He argues that states/empires no longer engage in the brutal practice of putting heads on pikes or draping human skins over walls to remind citizens of what happens when they step out of line. While technically accurate, I think this overlooks the role of homelessness, which does much the same thing. Despite all the handwringing over homelessness and the various programs meant to address it (and the non-profits, who mean what they say and actually do good work), elites and governments benefit from the visual reminder of what can happen to citizens when they don't play by the rules. Walk by a city park these days and you can see exactly what could happen to you if you don't stay in your place and do what you're told.
That aside, it's a fantastic book and I think everyone should read it, not least because I could go around saying "I told you so" for the rest of my life.
It is pretty validating, especially since he references the relationship between hierarchy in empires and the Dark Triad -- sociopathy, narcissism and Machiavellianism -- which also seemed pretty common sense to me but I'd never heard or seen anyone say before. Double so there.
Anyway. Kemp's basic thesis is that Empires Are Bad, and not only in the ways you know about already (colonialism, violence, slavery, environmental degradation, etc.), but also in ways you didn't. Example: Did you know that heights generally decreased for even citizens of empires as they grew, because the people who lived in them had worse diets and worse health? that their life expectancy declined? That when empires collapsed, while things got a lot worse for the elites who ran them -- obviously, the common people who survived generally improved their economic situation, physical health and happiness? That collapse has, generally, been a positive thing for most people throughout most of human history?
Me either, but it sure makes sense. Of course, it's the elite record of collapse we have now in our written records, so it's not the message we've been given.
I also learned that what predicts collapse isn't environmental degradation or collapsing treasuries, but inequality: the bigger the gap between the elites and the rest of the empire's citizens, the more likely it's collapse and the worse that collapse is likely to be.
This cheerier view of collapse does not extend to our current situation for a few reasons: 1) what he calls the 'rungless ladder' -- the more we 'develop,' the more we lose our prior skills, and the less we have to fall back on if our societies no longer provide the services we rely on; 2) there is nowhere for most of us to escape to as our states and the empires they belong to effectively cover the globe. So he does not suggest that we passively sit around and await the next collapse to release us from the current system, nor does he suggest stockpiling canned goods and ammunition, since those who have survived previous collapses have been those who invested in their relationships and communities, not those who had the best bunkers. Also, as others have previously argued, he points out that we have used up our easily accessible fossil fuels and it's not clear that the world could re-industrialize without them, if the collapse was significant. Rather, he lists some ideas for working against dominance and hierarchy and towards equality and democracy to make the current system and the goods it provides more sustainable and less damaging.
It's a good argument and very persuasive.
A few minor caveats:
1) He misses human exceptionalism almost entirely, but that's a big part of this.
2) He argues that states/empires no longer engage in the brutal practice of putting heads on pikes or draping human skins over walls to remind citizens of what happens when they step out of line. While technically accurate, I think this overlooks the role of homelessness, which does much the same thing. Despite all the handwringing over homelessness and the various programs meant to address it (and the non-profits, who mean what they say and actually do good work), elites and governments benefit from the visual reminder of what can happen to citizens when they don't play by the rules. Walk by a city park these days and you can see exactly what could happen to you if you don't stay in your place and do what you're told.
That aside, it's a fantastic book and I think everyone should read it, not least because I could go around saying "I told you so" for the rest of my life.
October 20, 2025
Luke Kemp is an Australian academic with a PhD in international relations; his current role is as a research associate at the University of Cambridge in the Centre of the Study of Existential Risk, quite salient to the title of his 2025, nearly-600 page, book Goliath's Curse. The majority of the book is a recapitulation of thousands of years of human civilization, highlighting common factors that led to societies, dynasties, empires, and eventually nation-states' collapse. His thesis is that what he calls "Goliath fuel" -- the conditions that spawn hierarchical societies, like lootable resources, weapons, and technology -- is a double-edged sword that inevitably leads to collapse of said societies once the fuel sources run dry and/or inequality increases. The last few chapters of the book are dedicated to our current era, the anthropocene, and how the seeds of our collapse are allegedly already sown, with climate change likely being a driving force.
This book was interesting at times but also a slog to get through; Kemp's writing is witty and incisive which prevents this book from reading like a textbook, though it's certainly of textbook/PhD dissertation length -- and in fact, per Google it appears this book was indeed spawned by Kemp's PhD dissertation.
That being said, I have a fair degree of skepticism for Goliath's Curse and books of a similar ilk that 1) spend hundreds of pages regurgitating human history through specific lenses, hoping that sheer volume will be evidence enough of veracity, perhaps through audience exhaustion, 2) have a relatively slim section dedicated to 'future directions', and 3) claim that if XYZ happened many times in the past, XYZ will inevitably happen again, so we're doomed regardless. History can be predictable but it can also be surprising; the most pressing problems of, and existential threats to, the global 'Goliath' of today aren't necessarily the same as the ones that led to prior collapses, and even if they are, the world of 2025 may have solutions or bypasses that weren't available then.
Further reading: existential threats
The Big Nine: How the Tech Titans and Their Thinking Machines Could Warp Humanity by Amy Webb
AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order by Kai-Fu Lee
Pathogenesis: A History of the World in Eight Plagues by Jonathan Kennedy
Ends of the Earth: Journeys to the Polar Regions in Search of Life, the Cosmos, and Our Future by Neil Shubin
My statistics:
Book 320 for 2025
Book 2246 cumulatively
This book was interesting at times but also a slog to get through; Kemp's writing is witty and incisive which prevents this book from reading like a textbook, though it's certainly of textbook/PhD dissertation length -- and in fact, per Google it appears this book was indeed spawned by Kemp's PhD dissertation.
That being said, I have a fair degree of skepticism for Goliath's Curse and books of a similar ilk that 1) spend hundreds of pages regurgitating human history through specific lenses, hoping that sheer volume will be evidence enough of veracity, perhaps through audience exhaustion, 2) have a relatively slim section dedicated to 'future directions', and 3) claim that if XYZ happened many times in the past, XYZ will inevitably happen again, so we're doomed regardless. History can be predictable but it can also be surprising; the most pressing problems of, and existential threats to, the global 'Goliath' of today aren't necessarily the same as the ones that led to prior collapses, and even if they are, the world of 2025 may have solutions or bypasses that weren't available then.
Further reading: existential threats
The Big Nine: How the Tech Titans and Their Thinking Machines Could Warp Humanity by Amy Webb
AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order by Kai-Fu Lee
Pathogenesis: A History of the World in Eight Plagues by Jonathan Kennedy
Ends of the Earth: Journeys to the Polar Regions in Search of Life, the Cosmos, and Our Future by Neil Shubin
My statistics:
Book 320 for 2025
Book 2246 cumulatively
October 5, 2025
This is essential reading for anyone concerned about where humanity is headed. Kemp's prose is clear and direct, his research is exceptional, and his message is urgent without being paralyzing. I strongly recommend.
I transitioned my career into the existential risk field this year, so I was eager to read "Goliath’s Curse" to gain a better understanding of the global catastrophic risks we face. Also, for full transparency, I love history books. I minored in history in college for funsies, so I’m partial to historical reads which, let’s be honest, can be dense and dry. That said, this was not that. This book engaged and fascinated me throughout. It's academically rigorous without being a slog, combining scholarly depth with genuinely accessible storytelling.
The book opens with historical vignettes — like the emptying of the prehistoric megacity Chatalhoyuk and Roman peasants unaware their empire was crumbling around them — before building to data-driven analysis. It’s about two-thirds detailing historical patterns followed by one-third examining our current predicament (and then a ton of notes). This structure grounds the abstract concepts we’re grappling with today in human experiences from the past, and builds a foundation for his conclusions on evidence spanning millennia.
The central premise is that "Goliaths" are hierarchical societies built on domination and wealth extraction that ultimately lead to their own destruction. Analyzing hundreds of civilizations across thousands of years, Kemp identifies inequality and extraction by elites as the consistent drivers of collapse. Corrupt ruling classes more concerned with protecting their own power and ability to loot the people (which eventually becomes a competition between them as lootable resources become more scarce), weakened their empires/states to reduce the risk of coups, creating vulnerabilities that cemented their fates. Psychopaths.
The data show states last an average of 326 years, and the largest ones are even more fragile, collapsing after just 155. But here's the twist: Collapse tends to not be devastating for ordinary people the way we’ve been made to believe. Archaeological evidence shows populations often emerged from collapses with improved health and quality of life, freed from taxation, oppression, and forced labor.
Key takeaway: More democratic societies prove more resilient, while extreme inequality consistently precedes failure. Who could have imagined?
Now we get to the doom and gloom of our current moment. Maybe sit down for this part. The Goliaths today are not independent monoliths but deeply intrenched systems. We live in a single, interconnected global network where the failure of one Goliath could cause a complete system collapse that would be swift, global in scope, and potentially irreversible. “Too big to fail” gets bandied about a lot in reference to capitalist systems (think the corrupt U.S. financial system), but that doesn’t mean they can’t fail; rather it means catastrophe if they do.
So, what are we facing? Nuclear weapons, engineered pandemics, artificial general intelligence (or artificial general cognition, as Kemp prefers), and climate change (Earth is heating faster now than before the Great Permian Extinction that wiped out around 85% of life). Altogether, we currently face unprecedented existential risk. Fuck. Also, modern populations lack survival skills, and we have nowhere to flee — unless you’re on the access list for Peter Thiel’s massive New Zealand bunker. Fuuuuck.
Still, despite these dire warnings, Kemp ends with some hope and a call to action. He argues humans are fundamentally egalitarian. We lived in fluid, cooperative societies for hundreds of thousands of years before agriculture enabled extraction-based hierarchies. Our path to survival involves democratic control of our modern Goliaths, reducing inequality, and building resilience through justice. For individuals, Kemp’s request: "Don't be a dick." A philosophy I have aimed to live by.
Final plea: Don’t support the companies, politicians, and billionaires who imperil us. Speak with your feet, your wallet, and your votes. Demand your government take action to protect "We the People" and our planet. It’s not too late to make our world more resilient, we just need to understand what we’re facing and fight it together. Or we don't and killer robots take us out. We have options, is what I'm saying.
I transitioned my career into the existential risk field this year, so I was eager to read "Goliath’s Curse" to gain a better understanding of the global catastrophic risks we face. Also, for full transparency, I love history books. I minored in history in college for funsies, so I’m partial to historical reads which, let’s be honest, can be dense and dry. That said, this was not that. This book engaged and fascinated me throughout. It's academically rigorous without being a slog, combining scholarly depth with genuinely accessible storytelling.
The book opens with historical vignettes — like the emptying of the prehistoric megacity Chatalhoyuk and Roman peasants unaware their empire was crumbling around them — before building to data-driven analysis. It’s about two-thirds detailing historical patterns followed by one-third examining our current predicament (and then a ton of notes). This structure grounds the abstract concepts we’re grappling with today in human experiences from the past, and builds a foundation for his conclusions on evidence spanning millennia.
The central premise is that "Goliaths" are hierarchical societies built on domination and wealth extraction that ultimately lead to their own destruction. Analyzing hundreds of civilizations across thousands of years, Kemp identifies inequality and extraction by elites as the consistent drivers of collapse. Corrupt ruling classes more concerned with protecting their own power and ability to loot the people (which eventually becomes a competition between them as lootable resources become more scarce), weakened their empires/states to reduce the risk of coups, creating vulnerabilities that cemented their fates. Psychopaths.
The data show states last an average of 326 years, and the largest ones are even more fragile, collapsing after just 155. But here's the twist: Collapse tends to not be devastating for ordinary people the way we’ve been made to believe. Archaeological evidence shows populations often emerged from collapses with improved health and quality of life, freed from taxation, oppression, and forced labor.
Key takeaway: More democratic societies prove more resilient, while extreme inequality consistently precedes failure. Who could have imagined?
Now we get to the doom and gloom of our current moment. Maybe sit down for this part. The Goliaths today are not independent monoliths but deeply intrenched systems. We live in a single, interconnected global network where the failure of one Goliath could cause a complete system collapse that would be swift, global in scope, and potentially irreversible. “Too big to fail” gets bandied about a lot in reference to capitalist systems (think the corrupt U.S. financial system), but that doesn’t mean they can’t fail; rather it means catastrophe if they do.
So, what are we facing? Nuclear weapons, engineered pandemics, artificial general intelligence (or artificial general cognition, as Kemp prefers), and climate change (Earth is heating faster now than before the Great Permian Extinction that wiped out around 85% of life). Altogether, we currently face unprecedented existential risk. Fuck. Also, modern populations lack survival skills, and we have nowhere to flee — unless you’re on the access list for Peter Thiel’s massive New Zealand bunker. Fuuuuck.
Still, despite these dire warnings, Kemp ends with some hope and a call to action. He argues humans are fundamentally egalitarian. We lived in fluid, cooperative societies for hundreds of thousands of years before agriculture enabled extraction-based hierarchies. Our path to survival involves democratic control of our modern Goliaths, reducing inequality, and building resilience through justice. For individuals, Kemp’s request: "Don't be a dick." A philosophy I have aimed to live by.
Final plea: Don’t support the companies, politicians, and billionaires who imperil us. Speak with your feet, your wallet, and your votes. Demand your government take action to protect "We the People" and our planet. It’s not too late to make our world more resilient, we just need to understand what we’re facing and fight it together. Or we don't and killer robots take us out. We have options, is what I'm saying.
September 6, 2025
An excellent and important book. Well researched, it should be widely read and understood.
Kemp sets out the history of societies and the development of ‘Goliaths’ - usually large scale entities dominating large populations. Using a range of evidence Kemp posits that empires and other entities, while great for the elites, are usually deleterious for the masses; and that collapse usually improves things for the many.
He outlines the current threats to our world and societies and suggests necessary action needed to save humanity from final destruction.
Kemp sets out the history of societies and the development of ‘Goliaths’ - usually large scale entities dominating large populations. Using a range of evidence Kemp posits that empires and other entities, while great for the elites, are usually deleterious for the masses; and that collapse usually improves things for the many.
He outlines the current threats to our world and societies and suggests necessary action needed to save humanity from final destruction.
October 9, 2025
The history of societal collapse is instructive, and Kemp also squarely takes on the current global situation, in which the most serious forms of collapse will affect nearly everyone. Whether authoritarianism, climate, AI, nuclear war, or other combination (or single disaster) ignites the dreaded conflagration, the results are likely to be planet-wide.
But Kemp also walks the reader through all the ways we must work to conquer the new "Silicon Goliath" while we still can. Strongly recommended.
But Kemp also walks the reader through all the ways we must work to conquer the new "Silicon Goliath" while we still can. Strongly recommended.
October 10, 2025
Sure to be a favorite of degrowthers.
My problem is that the author spends half the book making interesting observations and the other half destroying his own credibility with exaggerations and catastrophic projection. The book is filled with the following types of statements that I’m shocked made it past an editor:
“Up to a third, or maybe even half, of the population” so the supported ceiling is 30, but the author randomly says but what if it’s 50?!
“50-95%” if the upper bound is 95 the lower must be 5 but that doesn’t fit the narrative and renders the useless number obviously useless
“Reliable numbers are hard to come by, but the number of deaths MUST have been…” in other words, here is my wholly unreliable guess
“We don’t know, but it could easily be…” or it could easily not be
“Would cost between 20 trillion dollars and 7 thousand trillion dollars” again, just obviously farcical on its face
He constantly writes a somewhat conservative estimate (we're talking about early civilization data) presumably to establish credibility, then just randomly adds “OR EVEN!” and makes up some much worse number to support his narrative.
It’s sort of classic doomer stuff. He cites actual data, extrapolates that data to the worst possible scenario, then writes a long narrative based on his catastrophic conjecture and expects you to forget that the reliable data he started with isn’t actually supporting the end of the world scenario he describes.
Two stars instead of one because it was engaging and entertaining.
My problem is that the author spends half the book making interesting observations and the other half destroying his own credibility with exaggerations and catastrophic projection. The book is filled with the following types of statements that I’m shocked made it past an editor:
“Up to a third, or maybe even half, of the population” so the supported ceiling is 30, but the author randomly says but what if it’s 50?!
“50-95%” if the upper bound is 95 the lower must be 5 but that doesn’t fit the narrative and renders the useless number obviously useless
“Reliable numbers are hard to come by, but the number of deaths MUST have been…” in other words, here is my wholly unreliable guess
“We don’t know, but it could easily be…” or it could easily not be
“Would cost between 20 trillion dollars and 7 thousand trillion dollars” again, just obviously farcical on its face
He constantly writes a somewhat conservative estimate (we're talking about early civilization data) presumably to establish credibility, then just randomly adds “OR EVEN!” and makes up some much worse number to support his narrative.
It’s sort of classic doomer stuff. He cites actual data, extrapolates that data to the worst possible scenario, then writes a long narrative based on his catastrophic conjecture and expects you to forget that the reliable data he started with isn’t actually supporting the end of the world scenario he describes.
Two stars instead of one because it was engaging and entertaining.
December 4, 2025
"Goliath’s Curse" is an ambitious, sweeping examination of societal collapse—what causes it, who benefits from it, and why, time and again, we seem unable to stop the cycle. The book interrogates deeply embedded assumptions about civilization, power, and human nature, beginning with a direct challenge to the Hobbesian worldview that without centralized authority, society inevitably descends into chaos.
Rather than accepting that humans are inherently selfish or violent in the absence of control, the author proposes that inequality—not the absence of authority—is the root of societal breakdown. In more equal societies, when disaster strikes—be it war, famine, or natural calamity—people tend to respond with collective resilience and mutual aid. In contrast, in deeply stratified societies, collapse tends to be followed by rebellion and resentment, often because the existing order is already extractive and oppressive.
At the heart of this book lies a disturbing but compelling idea: human societies naturally gravitate toward egalitarianism, but time and again, power is seized by high-functioning sociopaths—those capable of suppressing empathy in pursuit of control. These individuals construct hierarchies and systems of domination, centralize wealth, and manipulate societal values to uphold inequality.
The book offers a historical lens into how these dynamics emerged—particularly through the cultivation of “lootable resources.” Once groups could accumulate and steal food, land, or gold, power hierarchies developed. Societies evolved into competitive arenas for conspicuous displays of wealth: feasts, jewelry, monuments—all signaling elite status, often at the expense of the broader population.
Over time, this gave rise to a phenomenon the book calls "elite overproduction"—a surplus of ambitious elites fighting for limited spots at the top. As society becomes more stratified, internal elite competition intensifies, destabilizing the system. Ironically, many populist uprisings and revolutions aren’t started by the poor—but by these counter-elites. Think Lenin. Think Castro. Think Caesar. And yes, think Trump—a billionaire who styled himself a voice of the working class.
Modern elites, especially those in Silicon Valley, replicate this pattern. They brand themselves as insurgents or disruptors, not to dismantle the system, but to capture it—undermining institutions like the FTC and antitrust bodies to consolidate more control. It's a familiar game: exploit public anger, claim outsider status, and further entrench elite dominance.
The book highlights how this elite manipulation corrodes institutions and erodes public trust. Media, politics, and public discourse become battlegrounds for narratives designed to maintain inequality while labeling any alternative as “radical.” When candidates like Zohran Mamdani propose policies such as rent freezes, public groceries, or taxing the rich, they are dismissed not on the merits—but because they threaten the fragile center of elite consensus.
And what is this “center” anyway? A place where billionaires buy influence, homelessness rises alongside stock markets, and essential needs like housing and healthcare become luxuries. As the author argues, the "center" is not a neutral space—it's a curated illusion, propped up by media owned by the same class that benefits from the system.
The terrifying conclusion is this: elites are not incentivized to fix broken systems. They are too invested in the status quo to change course, even as it burns around them. Collapse, for them, is preferable to reform—so long as their power remains intact. Whether it's ignoring climate change, resisting democratic reforms, or promoting dangerous techno-utopias like AGI, their decisions often prioritize control over collective survival.
Take the current AI boom. Framed as progress, it’s really a top-down push by elites to restructure the economy in their image—replacing human labor with machine intelligence. The public never asked for this. Most Americans are skeptical or outright hostile to AGI. And yet, here we are—paying for the data centers, the electricity, and the infrastructure with our tax dollars, only to be told that the models built on our data are coming for our jobs.
"Goliath's Curse" reveals a brutal truth: we live in a system not built by or for the people, but for those most ruthless in pursuing power. And if our society continues to reward sociopathy over empathy, extraction over stewardship, and illusion over truth—then collapse isn't just possible. It's inevitable.
4.8 stars
Rather than accepting that humans are inherently selfish or violent in the absence of control, the author proposes that inequality—not the absence of authority—is the root of societal breakdown. In more equal societies, when disaster strikes—be it war, famine, or natural calamity—people tend to respond with collective resilience and mutual aid. In contrast, in deeply stratified societies, collapse tends to be followed by rebellion and resentment, often because the existing order is already extractive and oppressive.
At the heart of this book lies a disturbing but compelling idea: human societies naturally gravitate toward egalitarianism, but time and again, power is seized by high-functioning sociopaths—those capable of suppressing empathy in pursuit of control. These individuals construct hierarchies and systems of domination, centralize wealth, and manipulate societal values to uphold inequality.
The book offers a historical lens into how these dynamics emerged—particularly through the cultivation of “lootable resources.” Once groups could accumulate and steal food, land, or gold, power hierarchies developed. Societies evolved into competitive arenas for conspicuous displays of wealth: feasts, jewelry, monuments—all signaling elite status, often at the expense of the broader population.
Over time, this gave rise to a phenomenon the book calls "elite overproduction"—a surplus of ambitious elites fighting for limited spots at the top. As society becomes more stratified, internal elite competition intensifies, destabilizing the system. Ironically, many populist uprisings and revolutions aren’t started by the poor—but by these counter-elites. Think Lenin. Think Castro. Think Caesar. And yes, think Trump—a billionaire who styled himself a voice of the working class.
Modern elites, especially those in Silicon Valley, replicate this pattern. They brand themselves as insurgents or disruptors, not to dismantle the system, but to capture it—undermining institutions like the FTC and antitrust bodies to consolidate more control. It's a familiar game: exploit public anger, claim outsider status, and further entrench elite dominance.
The book highlights how this elite manipulation corrodes institutions and erodes public trust. Media, politics, and public discourse become battlegrounds for narratives designed to maintain inequality while labeling any alternative as “radical.” When candidates like Zohran Mamdani propose policies such as rent freezes, public groceries, or taxing the rich, they are dismissed not on the merits—but because they threaten the fragile center of elite consensus.
And what is this “center” anyway? A place where billionaires buy influence, homelessness rises alongside stock markets, and essential needs like housing and healthcare become luxuries. As the author argues, the "center" is not a neutral space—it's a curated illusion, propped up by media owned by the same class that benefits from the system.
The terrifying conclusion is this: elites are not incentivized to fix broken systems. They are too invested in the status quo to change course, even as it burns around them. Collapse, for them, is preferable to reform—so long as their power remains intact. Whether it's ignoring climate change, resisting democratic reforms, or promoting dangerous techno-utopias like AGI, their decisions often prioritize control over collective survival.
Take the current AI boom. Framed as progress, it’s really a top-down push by elites to restructure the economy in their image—replacing human labor with machine intelligence. The public never asked for this. Most Americans are skeptical or outright hostile to AGI. And yet, here we are—paying for the data centers, the electricity, and the infrastructure with our tax dollars, only to be told that the models built on our data are coming for our jobs.
"Goliath's Curse" reveals a brutal truth: we live in a system not built by or for the people, but for those most ruthless in pursuing power. And if our society continues to reward sociopathy over empathy, extraction over stewardship, and illusion over truth—then collapse isn't just possible. It's inevitable.
4.8 stars
November 10, 2025
4.75 In your face Diamond. Dream on Hobbes. Suck it Pinker, "the darker angels of our nature are flying us towards evolutionary suicide."! But fear not, there are paths we can choose that will allow us to emerge from our next collapse and this book is your field guide.
Indeed, Goliath's Curse provides a desperately needed, thoroughly researched, scholarly, accurate (I'm looking at you, peddlers of misinformation named above) history of why societies rise and fall. All too often pundits and historians gleefully remind us that 'humans are violent, greedy, and competitive', and that's just how it has always been, is and always will be. Mr Kemp's book provides one of the most comprehensive rebuttals to this trope that I have read, and I've read a bunch of them.
Let me be clear, the history presented can get downright depressing, especially in the mid to later chapters as the author approaches and dissects our current challenges and existential threats. However, I beg you to hang in there - I promise you, ultimately you will be inspired.
Essentially I came away with this truth seered into my conscious:
"For most of human history we lived in fluid civilizations. These were webs of exchange, mutual aid, and reciprocity that were full of mobile, egalitarian, social individuals with a strong aversion to being dominated. Status competition lurked underneath these arrangements but was kept in check through counter-dominance strategies and sheer environmental circumstances. Collapse occurred only when environmental shocks disconnected populations or severed them from the wider civilization." Mic drop.
Chapter 23 is a magnificent summation of his thesis but only works because he has built the case with thoroughly footnoted historical facts. Despite the realization that presently we are in a dark and brutish period and facing numerous existential threats that could end us, I ultimately felt positive and empowered! Partly because... well, this book made me feel small, and that's a wonderful thing.
I think it's healthy to rebalance our perspective on the scale of human history. At least for me, I find it grounding when confronted by daily news reports of our desperate circumstances and accelerating decline to be reminded that homo sapiens have been at it for 200,000 years. However, I mostly find comfort and empowered because as this book methodically lays out, history is on the side of the masses. Our society and the wealth that has been stolen by the .01% was and is generated by the people.
"The tireless labor and courage of underpaid workers in schools, hospitals, mines, and factories." "...the myriad underpaid and unpaid individuals who provide the data and train the machines." OUR GREATEST ACHIEVEMENTS ARE NOT BECAUSE OF THE 1 PERCENT!
I have wonderful news, there is a path out of the mess we are in and away from the Goliath model and it's not built on hopium. This book provides clear, effective and previously utilized policies, and course corrections that will soften what currently promises to be a very hard if not catastrophic landing. Let's get to work and/or keep on working on slaying Goliath.
PS Trigger warning - if the idea of 'socializing' anything makes you uncomfortable then this book may cause irritation; the good kind. I ask that you carry on reading and keep an open mind. I would be curious to hear your thoughts, once you have completed the book.
Indeed, Goliath's Curse provides a desperately needed, thoroughly researched, scholarly, accurate (I'm looking at you, peddlers of misinformation named above) history of why societies rise and fall. All too often pundits and historians gleefully remind us that 'humans are violent, greedy, and competitive', and that's just how it has always been, is and always will be. Mr Kemp's book provides one of the most comprehensive rebuttals to this trope that I have read, and I've read a bunch of them.
Let me be clear, the history presented can get downright depressing, especially in the mid to later chapters as the author approaches and dissects our current challenges and existential threats. However, I beg you to hang in there - I promise you, ultimately you will be inspired.
Essentially I came away with this truth seered into my conscious:
"For most of human history we lived in fluid civilizations. These were webs of exchange, mutual aid, and reciprocity that were full of mobile, egalitarian, social individuals with a strong aversion to being dominated. Status competition lurked underneath these arrangements but was kept in check through counter-dominance strategies and sheer environmental circumstances. Collapse occurred only when environmental shocks disconnected populations or severed them from the wider civilization." Mic drop.
Chapter 23 is a magnificent summation of his thesis but only works because he has built the case with thoroughly footnoted historical facts. Despite the realization that presently we are in a dark and brutish period and facing numerous existential threats that could end us, I ultimately felt positive and empowered! Partly because... well, this book made me feel small, and that's a wonderful thing.
I think it's healthy to rebalance our perspective on the scale of human history. At least for me, I find it grounding when confronted by daily news reports of our desperate circumstances and accelerating decline to be reminded that homo sapiens have been at it for 200,000 years. However, I mostly find comfort and empowered because as this book methodically lays out, history is on the side of the masses. Our society and the wealth that has been stolen by the .01% was and is generated by the people.
"The tireless labor and courage of underpaid workers in schools, hospitals, mines, and factories." "...the myriad underpaid and unpaid individuals who provide the data and train the machines." OUR GREATEST ACHIEVEMENTS ARE NOT BECAUSE OF THE 1 PERCENT!
I have wonderful news, there is a path out of the mess we are in and away from the Goliath model and it's not built on hopium. This book provides clear, effective and previously utilized policies, and course corrections that will soften what currently promises to be a very hard if not catastrophic landing. Let's get to work and/or keep on working on slaying Goliath.
PS Trigger warning - if the idea of 'socializing' anything makes you uncomfortable then this book may cause irritation; the good kind. I ask that you carry on reading and keep an open mind. I would be curious to hear your thoughts, once you have completed the book.
October 28, 2025
Stark view of future. Made me glad I am old. But I worry for my children and grandchildren. Very well researched and thought out. At the end he provides a prescription for saving the future for human beings but it does seem improbable. Of course we can hope for someone with brilliant insights. It seems population always grows to fill its niche and become threatened. Now the threats are more existential.
September 28, 2025
Very insightful. It gave me hope.
September 7, 2025
Do we not have enough Doom Grifter already?
December 7, 2025
The author has a good grasp on human nature and the development of dominance hierarchies in settled states and empires. Human beings spent over 100,ooo years as highly egalitarian hunter-gatherers and the last 8000 with growing dominance hierarchies of money, power, gender, and race in state societies, or what the author calls Goliath. Goliaths usually arise when a lootable resource that people depend on is under the control of an elite, and escape is not an option for the population. This began to come about during the agricultural revolution and is a mark of most state societies. Golaiths are the empires of history that often called themselves civilized but largely perpetrated genocide, slavery, human sacrifice, and oppression of the poor. For Elites, life might be good, but not for the majority of ordinary people. Often, when goliaths fall, the yoke of oppression is lifted for ordinary people; however, elites write history and are usually horrified at such affairs as people rising up against "their betters".
Now Goliaths in the modern era have nukes, and a rapacious thirst for resources, and are wreaking environmental destruction, and new horrors like new pandemics, serious pollution, and climate change are making the current situation grow dire. Goliath falling this time might be an existential risk for humanity. The author argues for democratization and turning the tide against growing inequality as maybe a way out. It would have to go against currents in the other direction but that would be a way out.
Now Goliaths in the modern era have nukes, and a rapacious thirst for resources, and are wreaking environmental destruction, and new horrors like new pandemics, serious pollution, and climate change are making the current situation grow dire. Goliath falling this time might be an existential risk for humanity. The author argues for democratization and turning the tide against growing inequality as maybe a way out. It would have to go against currents in the other direction but that would be a way out.
December 1, 2025
My new favourite book of all time.
Absolutely stupendous, tying everything important together in an absolutely awesome, inspiringly intelligent and coherent way. Did everything I was hoping my masters diss would be, and more, but with the finesse of someone who is a veteran academic in the field of existential risk studies.
While slow to get going, it was so so worth it to persevere, and by halfway through I was flying, picking up and making use of the nuggets that were littered in the earlier parts. Part 3 of the book that focused on the future was majestic (I'm running out of adjectives to express how impressive it was). Looked in depth at many different ways horrifying risks are crystalysing, how it got to this point, very well thought out what could happen next and then what the alternatives to escape it could be. Admittedly I did find some suggestions in the final chapter to be more than a tad naive, but at the same time it was refreshing to see a much more steelmanned collection of suggestions than most futurologists manage to come up with.
Read this book, it is the most important history, politics, futurology and call to action book you will ever read.
Absolutely stupendous, tying everything important together in an absolutely awesome, inspiringly intelligent and coherent way. Did everything I was hoping my masters diss would be, and more, but with the finesse of someone who is a veteran academic in the field of existential risk studies.
While slow to get going, it was so so worth it to persevere, and by halfway through I was flying, picking up and making use of the nuggets that were littered in the earlier parts. Part 3 of the book that focused on the future was majestic (I'm running out of adjectives to express how impressive it was). Looked in depth at many different ways horrifying risks are crystalysing, how it got to this point, very well thought out what could happen next and then what the alternatives to escape it could be. Admittedly I did find some suggestions in the final chapter to be more than a tad naive, but at the same time it was refreshing to see a much more steelmanned collection of suggestions than most futurologists manage to come up with.
Read this book, it is the most important history, politics, futurology and call to action book you will ever read.
November 10, 2025
This is dense and broad, engaging and informative. It examines the collapse of states, but rather than a close-up look of a few examples, Kemp explores global trends of societal collapse. Climate change, invasion, resource depletion, and disease are common causes, and if those don't take down a state, civil unrest due to wealth inequality will do it. It is a bit unsettling seeing the parallels between dozens of ancient collapsed states and modern civilization, but that is Kemp's main point. We're at the tipping point.
October 24, 2025
Acum că am terminat cartea asta…everything makes more sense now. Ce carte!
November 17, 2025
Sobering but hopeful
December 22, 2025
A long book, thought provoking, hopeful but not overly optimistic as to the future of our western, industrial, planet destroying civilization.
October 10, 2025
A thorough review of cultural and population collapse since the beginning of time and an insightful work as to how collapse both works and effects all species, Kemp also offers a pathway for hope as we continue in the warming crisis.
December 16, 2025
There were like 6 or 7 chapters of this book that made me need a shower
October 8, 2025
I read this book whilst listening to the audio version, replaying parts and taking notes.
This book will be something I'll keep returning to.
Excellently written. Well researched.
I'm definitely buying Christmas present copies for family and friends.
This book will be something I'll keep returning to.
Excellently written. Well researched.
I'm definitely buying Christmas present copies for family and friends.
October 2, 2025
I received this book as part of a Goodreads giveaway.
Kemp's book gives a more overarching view of the collapse of societies over time through looking at people and societies over time. Rather than focus on one society or one era this is a view of humanity, the ups and the downs and the inbetweens. Looking at who won and who failed and the differences leads the reader to why some groups rise and some fall and what this may mean for the future. Overall, this is a good read and will leave the reader with new ideas and also new questions to explore.
Kemp's book gives a more overarching view of the collapse of societies over time through looking at people and societies over time. Rather than focus on one society or one era this is a view of humanity, the ups and the downs and the inbetweens. Looking at who won and who failed and the differences leads the reader to why some groups rise and some fall and what this may mean for the future. Overall, this is a good read and will leave the reader with new ideas and also new questions to explore.
November 3, 2025
If you haven’t read Marcel Mauss, David Graeber, or James Scott (and to a lesser extent Robert Putnam) this will likely be a pretty informative and quick read. If you have read these writers, and have waded through the criticisms of them, this book quickly turns into a slog of somewhat incoherent points and confusing ideology. At its worst it is a well written work of either paleoconservatism of anarchoprimitivism which cherry picks points from other books leading to a contradictory mess. At its best it is a somewhat insightful revisionist history which allows one to think of collapse from different class perspectives.
I struggled between two or three stars here because I really did not enjoy this book but I think the main reason for that is because the book was not written for someone who has read the primary sources the author used. In the end I decided on two stars simply because of the tedious nature of writing where even internally there are contradictions; in one chapter the author rails against using the term complexity to describe “civilizational advancement” because non-state societies were just as, if not more complex and then only a few chapters later describes how “simple” state structures developed into more “complex” organizing frameworks that could then administer over larger areas. This is clearly is an issue of the former chapter drawing from one thinker and the latter drawing from a different one, but this leads to a quite confusing and incoherent set of analyses and criticisms.
I struggled between two or three stars here because I really did not enjoy this book but I think the main reason for that is because the book was not written for someone who has read the primary sources the author used. In the end I decided on two stars simply because of the tedious nature of writing where even internally there are contradictions; in one chapter the author rails against using the term complexity to describe “civilizational advancement” because non-state societies were just as, if not more complex and then only a few chapters later describes how “simple” state structures developed into more “complex” organizing frameworks that could then administer over larger areas. This is clearly is an issue of the former chapter drawing from one thinker and the latter drawing from a different one, but this leads to a quite confusing and incoherent set of analyses and criticisms.
Read
October 29, 2025DNF at about 20%.
This book is absolutely firmly in the Rousseauian tradition about how life before civilization was much better before humanity got trapped by sedentary life and status seeking. So I found it frustrating that while this book spent quite a bit of time setting up Hobbes, and some of his fellow travelers in the theory that natural life is nasty, brutish, and short, just to smack his ideas down, there's zero discussion of any of the rich tradition of thinkers that are on the book's side, like Rousseau. That's not all there is to the argument that the book is making, but it is a fundamental part of the claim.
My bigger annoyance was that this is a book that wants to make a lot of big, bold claims about human nature and civilization and society and, to do so, must do a massive survey across essentially all of human history, all the back to when we diverged from chimps/bonobos. And the problem with doing a book like that is that it is impossible to be an expert on all of the necessary aspects, so straight-up inaccuracies and facile simplifications that aren't quite right are bound to creep in. Which they absolutely did in this book. And, while I do know a lot about some of the topics discussed in this book, there's plenty of stuff discussed that I don't know well enough to fact check. So when I notice that there are things that are wrong or there's some legitimate disagreement about the interpretation discussed in the book with no acknowledgement about said controversy, about the topics I know well, I start to seriously doubt what I'm being told about the stuff that's new-to-me. The book in general lost my trust to teach me anything new, and I didn't want to continue. A red flag, to me, is that it approvingly cited Yuval Noah Harari, whose work has the pitfall of having many, many inaccuracies.
This book is absolutely firmly in the Rousseauian tradition about how life before civilization was much better before humanity got trapped by sedentary life and status seeking. So I found it frustrating that while this book spent quite a bit of time setting up Hobbes, and some of his fellow travelers in the theory that natural life is nasty, brutish, and short, just to smack his ideas down, there's zero discussion of any of the rich tradition of thinkers that are on the book's side, like Rousseau. That's not all there is to the argument that the book is making, but it is a fundamental part of the claim.
My bigger annoyance was that this is a book that wants to make a lot of big, bold claims about human nature and civilization and society and, to do so, must do a massive survey across essentially all of human history, all the back to when we diverged from chimps/bonobos. And the problem with doing a book like that is that it is impossible to be an expert on all of the necessary aspects, so straight-up inaccuracies and facile simplifications that aren't quite right are bound to creep in. Which they absolutely did in this book. And, while I do know a lot about some of the topics discussed in this book, there's plenty of stuff discussed that I don't know well enough to fact check. So when I notice that there are things that are wrong or there's some legitimate disagreement about the interpretation discussed in the book with no acknowledgement about said controversy, about the topics I know well, I start to seriously doubt what I'm being told about the stuff that's new-to-me. The book in general lost my trust to teach me anything new, and I didn't want to continue. A red flag, to me, is that it approvingly cited Yuval Noah Harari, whose work has the pitfall of having many, many inaccuracies.
October 25, 2025
Very comprehensive and well researched, brings in works of Jared Diamond, Joseph tainter, David Graeber/Wengrow, Vaclav Smil, Peter Turchin and many others to tell a compelling narrative of the ‘Goliath’.
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