Caught between wars raging in both Eastern Europe and the Middle East, Greece is an island of relative stability. Popularly considered the cradle of Western civilisation, this is a Christian Orthodox state on the edge of the Islamic world. And, after a half-century of integration into NATO and the EU, Greece is now reabsorbing into the Near East, as the West fractures and new Middle Eastern powers rise. The country’s importance as a cultural and geopolitical hybrid is growing.
Travelling through the region, Sean Mathews explores at ground level the tectonic shifts reshaping Europe and the Middle East. He meets the last Greek merchants in Cairo, and hears from Istanbul’s remaining Greeks about Turkey’s break with the West. In Jerusalem, he discovers a budding alliance between Greece and Israel; and in a faded Ottoman port, he encounters football hooligans loyal to a Russian oligarch.
This bold reappraisal of Greece as a Near Eastern nation uncovers its Byzantine and Ottoman past as a key to survival in today’s chaotic, shrinking world.
Is Greece the new rising Middle Eastern power that nobody is talking about? Sean Mathews’ The New Byzantines: The Rise of Greece and Return of the Near East makes the bold case that the Hellenic state is reembracing its Middle Eastern roots and is an emerging power who is playing a crucial role in dealing with a ‘revisionist’ Turkyie, America’s wavering commitment to NATO, Israel’s search for new allies and throwing its weight behind Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi.
Mathews makes interesting arguments about why Athens is a growing regional power; however, some of the reasons he cites that account for the rise also risk stalling it and it may be the case that we will look back on this period as what Greece could have been.
For some the claim Greece is reembracing its Middle Eastern roots might seem jarring as it is a Christian country, member of NATO & EU and we tend to think of Ancient Greece as the birthplace of Western civilisation. Over the course of the 20th century, Greece has consciously moved towards being more integrated into Europe and dissociating itself from its Eastern roots. As Mathews argues, if you scratch beneath the surface, you will find Greek culture is still deeply entwined with the Middle East. The notion Greece is part of the West is a recent one, 19th and 20th century travel writers, who visited Greece saw it as very much an Eastern country.
The New Byzantines is partly a historical travel journal as Mathews tries to demonstrate that Greece is ‘returning’ to its Middle Eastern roots. What is fueling Greece’s geopolitical return to the Middle East is the sense that the West is in decline; the European Union is less reliable; America might withdraw from NATO; Turkish expansionism; Russia’s militarised foreign policy; and growing Middle Eastern investments in Greece. The post-Arab Spring fallout has led to instability, but as Mathews argues, Greece has benefitted from the regional conflicts of the 2010s. He points out the Greek economy is one of the best performing in the bloc and it is growing at twice the rate of the European average.
This is partially due to the influx of Middle Eastern capital with Lebanese, Israelis, Turks, Gulf Arabs are others buying up luxury property. Reliance on tourism and real estate might seem a risky strategy, Mathews asserts, ‘Yet, in a world of trade wars, Greece’s reliance on these industries is becoming an asset, compared to, say, heavy industrial production.’
Greece’s stability and the relatively low cost of living is an attractive proposition to many fleeing instability and repression in the Middle East. Athens is being transformed and turned back into an eastern city, where it always belonged, according to Mathews.
However, the influx of foreign capital adds challenges to the Greek people, the book acknowledges foreigners buying up real estate has priced many Athenians out of the market. Salaries are low, to raise a family requires at least double the estimated 1,500 euros monthly income.
Further, there is little social and economic mobility while the middle classes are being hollowed out. Many commentators would question the long-term stability of this model and assume some kind of political backlash might follow. I think here is where Mathews makes his most ambitious argument, ‘Spain and Italy might talk about cracking down on foreign homebuyers and real estate speculation.
Greece is too Eastern not to embrace the trend. I suspect the coming years will see a divide emerge in the Mediterranean, where the western half imposes more regulations on foreign investment, while Greece continues to court outsiders.’ In other words, Greece’s cultural orientation will likely mean it will remain open to foreign investment and this is a key factor for Athens economic and geostrategic position.
The cultural orientation is also why Greece has not followed the populist trend seen elsewhere; the Mediterranean country’s Orthodox Christian faith is at the heart of it. ‘This is a religion that has neither tried to accommodate nor confront modernity. Instead, it rises above it…Because the Orthodox faith is so conservative, it rises above the cultural conflicts ranging in the West.’ I find this part of the argument the most challenging because Mathews’ idea of culture is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. He is not necessarily arguing that Greece is immune to populist politics in the future, but based on what he has observed so far, there is reason to think it will resist the populist urge.
Given how important this will be for the future of Greece’s economy and geopolitical future, if we follow Mathews’ logic here, Greece could falter as a Near Eastern power if it succumbs to populist politics. The lack of economic diversity in the sense of major industries and productions also makes this problem more acute.
Turkiye is ever present throughout the book as almost every development the book explores from internal tensions in western Thrace, tension with Bulgaria, growing outreach to Israel, maritime demarcation lines and Russia/Ukraine war, concerns about Turkish power and influence drive a lot of decision making in Athens. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is seen as seeking to disrupt the international system and poses a security challenge to Greece.
Fear of Ankara is coupled with concerns the United States is pulling back from Western alliances, Athens hopes reinserting itself into the Middle East will keep Washington engaged and view Greece as a useful partner. Egypt represents one of Greece’s biggest gambles, ‘Egypt gives Greece a Muslim and Arab ally to counter Erdogan. Greece can’t give Egypt what it needs most, money, but it has become a staunch defender of Cairo in the European Union and United Nations, working to stamp out criticism of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah-Sisi’s horrendous human rights record.’
The relationship between Athens and Cairo deepened after Sisi seized power in 2013, concerns about regional chaos, Islamism and Turkiye led to Greece throwing its weight behind President Sisi. Mathews points out that while Greek-Turkish tensions are not new, in the past, every time tensions heated up, the US would intervene to deescalate, but if the US is pulling back, tensions might boil over into war. A key source of tension is the maritime dispute, where Greece lays claim to thousands of islands that under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, would give Athens a maritime zone of up to 200 miles of the coastlines off these islands. That would mean these waters are free for Greece to exploit for natural gas exploration, Turkiye rejects Athens claim as it would box them in and exclude Ankara from energy exploration in the region.
As Turkiye is less dependent on the West and is bigger than Greece, the balance of power would favour it in the Eastern Mediterranean including in this maritime dispute, if the US pulls back. Enter Egypt, where both militaries hold regular exercises together, diplomats from both countries work closely on the world stage and a possible cooperation over natural gas. While Egypt offers Greece an important ally, the Arab country has major economic difficulties and if Sisi doesn’t hold onto power, a new administration could come into power in Cairo that is hostile to Athens and open to Ankara. This could harm Greece’s ambitions to be a Middle Eastern power.
The New Byzantines makes for a compelling read and Mathews takes us from port to port to explore the new Greece. He rightly challenges us to rethink what Greece is and the potential it offers. He fuses together history, reportage, travel and geopolitics sprinkled with personal anecdotes and meeting people both in Greece and around the Middle East. There are many interesting threads to follow including Russia’s influence in Greece, how Syrian businessmen are transforming Athenian neighbourhoods, why some Istanbul Greeks have a favourable view of the Turkish president and how Greece’s culture makes it a natural fit into the Middle East. The book offers plenty of food for thought and much to explore, it will definitely be something people who are interested in Greece, US withdrawal, populism and the emerging world order, will have much to debate over. However, the central thesis that Greece is an emerging Middle Eastern power, while it has merit to the claim, a number of factors could harm or curtail Athens’ ambitions.
It feels like Greek power hinges on a lot of things that seem fragile, whether it’s the alliances it is trying to build, the economic model it is pursuing and if we don’t see a major backlash in Greece to some of the changes taking place in the country. It could well be that Mathews has correctly identified a great emerging power, but it remains to be seen whether they will fully develop into one in the long term.
Written by a Greek American, who has lived in the Middle East, and now Greece itself, for the past decade, this book argues that Greece is properly part of the Middle East, specifically, a refuge for Middle Eastern Christians (as Israel is a refuge for Middle Eastern Jews). The first half of the book looks at the history of Greeks in the Ottoman Empire, as well as their War of Independence, and subsequent developments in Greece. Much of the book looks at the Greeks (and other Christians) who were expelled from Anatolia when the Ottoman Empire fell, and how they fared when they reached Greece (for those who chose to emigrate there). This is really interesting history. I was familiar with it, but I think the author does the best job that I've seen of explaining the background behind Greek independence, as well as the role that modern Greece has played in the world subsequently (both the actual country of Greece, and the idea of ancient Greece).
The author does an excellent job of making his case that Greece belongs as part of the Middle East (or at least the Near East), although I think he concentrates on the evidence that will make his case. Along with many other writers, he argues that the Cold War artificially divided the world, and the world that has emerged since the fall of the Berlin Wall is returning to more traditional ways. This puts Greece squarely in the Near Eastern camp. Compared to other travel writing about the region, I thought this book was very rigorous. The author interviewed many people, but also referred to pre-World War II travel writing and historical fiction.
The author also looked at contemporary migration patterns, arguing that many wealthy Middle Easterners were buying second homes in Greece, and poor Middle Easterners were fleeing to Europe (often via Greece) en masse. He looks it great detail at the economic situation in Greece, particularly after the financial crisis of the early 2010s, and how this has impacted migration patterns. This part is very interesting, and opens the door for Greece (once a Balkan backwater) to become a more multiethnic, multireligious state (and how that development is very contested at present). The author argues that Greece's Middle Eastern culture will enable it to better absorb migrants than other parts of Europe. He also argues that Greek diplomats often represent NATO, the EU, or other Western interests with their Middle Eastern counterparts, since they have a better understanding of the region than most Westerners. Finally, he argues that Greece will be more stable than other European countries, because it has come through both a financial crisis and a migration crisis, and has returned to stable, relatively centrist governance. I think this may be true, but the Greek government went through a period of extremes during the early 2010s, which now seem to be being repeated across the West. Hopefully, the rest of the West comes out of it as well as Greece has.
The second half of the book looks at Greece's relationships with three Middle Eastern countries, Egypt, Israel, and Turkey. Chapters look both at Greek diasporas in each country, which are rapidly dwindling, but still exist. The author looks at how the Greek Orthodox Church has kept these diasporas going, and how intermarriage with other Christians in the region (Copts in Egypt, Palestinians in the Holy Land, possibly Armenians in Turkey) has enabled the diaspora to remain longer than expected. The author is negative about the Greek diaspora's long-term prospects, but he doesn't talk very much about the influx of Russians and Ukrainians into the region since the start of the Russia-Ukraine War. He does talk about Russian (and Ukrainian) increased influence in the Holy Land, but doesn't mention it in Turkey (where it is also pretty common). He does lament that Turkey did not try to increase its Greek population during the Greek financial crisis, when many young Greeks wanted to leave the country, and Turkey's economy was doing well. Some Greeks (usually with Ottoman background) did move to Turkey permanently, but it was a small number, and the Turkish government didn't encourage it. He doesn't talk about how the Greeks who moved to Turkey (he argues this could increase if Turkey eventually joins the EU) are integrating with the small diaspora community that has existed since ancient/Byzantine times. He also doesn't talk much about Turkish officials of the early 2000s and 2010s (such as former Foreign Minister and Prime Minister Davutoglu) who sought to build a Neo-Ottoman policy, and how their later marginalization might have undermined overtures to contemporary Greeks.
Finally, the author looks at the Greek government's relationships with contemporary Middle Eastern countries (again, Egypt, Israel, and Turkey), and speculates on future dynamics. This part is well-researched, but he tends to assume that future developments will continue on the same trajectory, and doesn't discuss possibilities for change. He looks at the US relationship, both with Greece, and with the Middle Eastern countries Greece is working more closely with. He argues that the US will probably increase its dealings with Greece, because it offers a low-cost way into the Middle East. Some of this part is written in the language of neo-colonialism, which I don't find as compelling.
The author looks at the role of population, and how growing populations in the Middle East will interact with shrinking Balkan populations (including the Greek). This is certainly true now, and explains the influx of Middle Easterners into the region. However, birth rates are dropping quickly in the Middle East. The question is whether an improved economic situation in the Balkans will increase family formation and childbearing in those countries.
Overall, this is an excellent, comprehensive book that makes its case well. There are only a few areas where I would recommend either a different emphasis, or more information/explanation.
Matthews annoyingly has the habit of dumbing down to prose to make it seem more journalistic. This on occassion makes him say completely inane things, such as that the Suez Canal was the artifical intelligence of the 1870s, or that the European royal families were the 'deep state' of the nineteenth century. This is presumably a verbal tic he picked up from the Economist, which has a similarly slurpy house style.
This is a cracking book, a real page Turner, outlining Greece is importance geopolitically and also it’s ties to the east which have never really diminished. Do yourself a favour have a read of this book.