The takeaways from the course were pretty much what one might get from general reading on climate change. While there’s some natural variation over thousands of years, the human contribution to climate change since 1750 (industrial age) has been huge, risking the earth’s health and ours. Figure 12 (from the course guidebook) displays the “human influence on climate,” which shows an especially dramatic increase since the mid-1960s. Wolfson estimates that the danger zone for the earth is “a doubling of pre-industrial atmospheric carbon dioxide. The pre-industrial concentration was about 280 parts per million; therefore, a doubling would be 560 parts per million. Today, we’re at around 390 ppm, climbing by about 2 ppm per year.”
By far, the human impact on global climate (the addition of greenhouse gases, primarily CO2, and the resultant heating of the Earth) comes from fossil fuels (“stored sunlight”), 85% of which comes from coal, oil and natural gas.* In the United States, energy consumption is expended in four main sectors (transportation, industry, household, and commercial). Each person on earth, Wolfson says, consumes about 20 times more energy than what is required to maintain the body, but this energy consumption is spread unevenly over the globe. Heavily industrialized countries use more than “undeveloped” countries; and some industrial countries are more efficient energy users than others.
Wolfson notes that, compared to natural processes that add greenhouse gases, the human contribution is relatively small. But that small amount has dramatic effects because the human-added carbon to the atmosphere is not recycled (via a “heat” pump effect – energy from the sun is absorbed mainly by water or reflected away from the earth), and thus remains in the atmosphere for a very long period of time.**
Wolfson draws on ice-core information to make the statement that “the present-day CO2 concentration is unprecedented over hundreds of thousands of years. Indirect evidence suggests that it is unprecedented in 20 million years. Quantitatively, today’s CO2 concentration is some 30% higher than anything the planet has seen in such long times.” He refers to Figure 11, which shows a graph that displays CO2 concentrations over the last 400,000 years. How that matches up with his statement that CO2 is “unprecedented over hundreds of thousands of years” or “unprecedented in 20 million years” is not clear. What that figure does show is a dramatic spike in CO2, but only since 1750.*** Wolfson adds elsewhere that “Today’s atmospheric CO2 concentration is nearly 40% above its pre-industrial value and is far above anything the planet has seen for nearly a million years and probably longer.” Though he tempers 20 million years by a factor of 20, Wolfson seems to be going beyond the data, at least as presented in this course. And, later, he again refers to a 30% rise in CO2 that is “higher than anything the planet has seen in hundreds of thousands to perhaps millions of years.” So Wolfson’s range here runs from “hundreds of thousands” to 20 million years, which suggests some amount of speculation.
What is interesting about Wolfson’s Figure 11 is that it shows significant spikes in temperature-CO2 over the last 400k years. Figure 5 indicates these are five “interglacial periods” involving a significant warming in what could be viewed as an aberration from significant “ice age” events. We are in one of those interglacial periods now and have been since 12-14,000 years ago, just as humans began their long emergence from their hunter-gatherer days and, eventually, to the post-1750 industrial revolution. It’s been said by other experts that given the pattern over the last 400,000 years this interglacial period is due to end and another cold spell will take its place. (In the 1950s, experts were warning of a global cooling.) Presumably, a cooling will have a more than significant impact on the Earth’s climate. How it impacts human life, which has taken off only during the last interglacial period, would be a main concern.****
The main reason for my interest in this course was an answer to this question: What is the relationship between anthropogenic effects on climate when seen in the context of recent geological time and these patterns of ice-age events?***** Surprisingly, Wolfson skirts over this question. These glacial ages have something to do with the earth’s tilt and its orbit around the sun. Wolfson only notes that “These records show a cyclic pattern of brief (10,000- to 20,000-year) warm spells called interglacials, separated by longer cold spells (ice ages). For the past half million years, this cycle has repeated on roughly 100,000-year intervals. This pattern results from subtle changes in Earth’s orbit and tilt, along with complex feedback effects in the climate system.” This is pretty much it. A key question regarding climate change is left unanswered.
This is my second Wolfson course. He is far too detailed for my taste. It’s easy to get lost in the weeds.
* Wolfson notes that 8% of Earth’s energy comes from nuclear power and 3% comes from hydro power; solar, wind and thermal power is less than 1%. These figures may be dated from this 2007 course.
**Wolfson writes: “The carbon cycle involves rapid cycling of carbon between atmospheric carbon dioxide and the biosphere, soils, and ocean surface waters. Carbon added to this system stays there for centuries to millennia and adds to the atmospheric carbon content.”
***And, interestingly, figure 12 shows that between 1900-1965, the natural and anthropogenic contributions to temperature rise were roughly parallel. It's only since 1965 that the human contribution splits off and starts to spike.
****See, for example, Brian Fagan's "The Long Summer: How Climate Changed Civilization."
*****Beyond the cyclic ice ages and interglacials, Wolfson adds that there "is also evidence of as many as four snowball Earth phases, when the planet may have frozen solid. These occurred between 750 and 580 million years ago and were followed by rapid thawing associated with changes in the atmosphere due to gaseous emissions from volcanoes." This type of scenario is less likely to repeat, I presume, than the ice age and interglacials that Wolfson references.