Tajwan. Krótka historia małej wyspy i jej wpływ na losy świata

by Kerry Brown, Paweł Szadkowski (Translator)

Tajwan jest kwitnącą demokracją z prężnie działającą gospodarką. Jedna z tajwańskich firm odpowiada za 90% produkcji półprzewodników na świecie. Z Tajwanu pochodzi też znany na całym świecie przysmak – bubble tea.
W oczach Stanów Zjednoczonych i Zachodu Tajwan stanowi bastion wolności powstrzymujący nieustępliwą politykę Chin. Mimo to pozostające pod rządami Xi Jinpinga Chiny coraz wyraźniej podkreślają, że Tajwan jest częścią ich terytorium i musi powrócić pod chińskie panowanie.

Kim są Tajwańczycy, jak wygląda ich życie i jak definiują swoją tożsamość? Jak wygląda ich relacja z Chińczykami? Jaki wpływ na nią miała skomplikowana historia tej małej wyspy?

Dzięki niedostępnym dla innych kontaktom z przywódcami politycznymi Tajwanu oraz drobiazgowej wiedzy o historii i kulturze wyspy profesor Kerry Brown oferuje nowe spojrzenie na Tajwan, na dwadzieścia trzy miliony ludzi, które go zamieszkują, oraz na sposób, w jaki Tajwańczycy unikają wpadnięcia w klincz geopolitycznego pojedynku.

Tajwan to pulsująca hybryda, która nie należy ani do Zachodu, ani do Chin. Ta książka jest dla każdego, kto chce lepiej poznać wyjątkową historię tej niewielkiej wyspy.

Genres: History, Nonfiction, Politics, China, Audiobook, Asia, Economics

280 pages, Paperback

First published November 7, 2024

About the author

Kerry Brown is an author, columnist, Professor of Chinese Studies and Director of the Lau China Institute at King's College, London.

*From Kerry's Website.*: Prior to this he was the Professor of Chinese Politcs and Director of the China Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. He led the Europe China Research and Advice Network(ECRAN) funded by the European Union from 2011 to 2014. He is an Associate Fellow on the Asia Programme at Chatham House, London. His main interests are in the politics and society of modern China, in its international relations and its political economy.

Educated at Cambridge (MA), London (Post Graduate Diploma in Chinese with Distinction) and Leeds Universities (Ph D), he worked in Japan and the Inner Mongolian region of China,before joining the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) in London in 1998. He worked in the China Section and then served as First Secretary, Beijing, from 2000 to 2003, and Head of the Indonesia East Timor Section at the FCO from 2003 to 2005.

Kerry Brown has been published in most major newspapers, commenting on China and Asia, including the New York Times, The Guardian, the Daily Telegraph, the Australian Financial Review, the Australian, the South China Morning Post, and the Financial Times. He has also been interviewed since 2006 by the BBC, Al Jazeera, CNN, Bloomberg, ABC and other outlets. He had undertaken consultancy for Mizuho Bank, BP, Oxford Analytica, Hakluyt, Tesco and other corporates.

Reviews

[Deniz · Rating 4 out of 5]

Star Rating: 🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟 (4/5)

Read the full review on my blog!

A non-democratic Taiwan would be ignored. A democratic one cannot be sacrificed. Values and ideals means it's an indispensable ally. Its defeat by China would not just a be a territorial and economic catastrophe, but an ideological and moral one

TLDR
Overall, the book provided an insightful and accessible introduction to Taiwan’s history and its current geopolitical challenges. It’s a great choice for anyone looking to understand Taiwan, whether for travel or general interest.

Synopsis
Kerry Brown’s Why Taiwan Matters offers a concise yet comprehensive exploration of Taiwan’s historical, political, and cultural evolution, emphasizing its pivotal role in contemporary geopolitics. From its origins as a colonial outpost to its rise as a democratic and economic powerhouse, the book highlights Taiwan’s unique identity shaped by Eastern and Western influences. Brown examines the relationship between Taiwan, the People’s Republic of China, and the United States, emphasizing the island’s strategic importance due to its semiconductor dominance and democratic values.

With Beijing’s increasing assertiveness and Taiwan’s quest for global recognition, the book underscores the geopolitical tensions and potential for conflict that could escalate into a global crisis. Brown provides historical context, avoiding prescriptive solutions, and stresses the need for patience and prudence to prevent catastrophic outcomes, making the book an essential primer for understanding Taiwan’s significance in global affairs.

[Wick Welker · Rating 5 out of 5]

Strategic Ambiguity

Taiwan matters. A lot. If you want to be even half way informed about current geopolitics, you have to understand why Taiwan matters and this is the perfect start book to read. It gives a brief history, the political events that have led up to today as well as the crucial existence of this small island. As the author argues, and where I tend to agree, Taiwan could be even more of a geopolitical flashpoint than Palestine if the right conditions come about. A conflict in Taiwan could lead to major conflict between the world’s now super powers, China and the US, which could ensnare the world in another world war.

Taiwan is an island with about 25 million people on it. The right wing Nationalist party, or the KMT led by Chiang Kai-shek, retreated to Taiwan after a civil war with Mao. The KMT initially unified China from a warlord state and was the sole ruling party of China from 1928-1949 but lost control after fighting the Empire of Japan in the Second Sino-Japanese war. The KMT eventually retreated to Taiwan in 1949, thus creating the problem that still exists today.

The issue is that Taiwan itself remains ill defined. It’s not an independent country of China—or is it? Depends on who you ask, in what settings and at what time. The CCP of course still claims Taiwan. Since 1949, Taiwan moved from the authoritarian control of the KMT into a more democratic society and government in the 1990s, which courted the support of the US and western liberal democracies. During this time, Taiwan focused on education and technology development and now has become a strategic micro processor manufacturer for basically the entire world through the company TSMC. Nobody does it better. So, it’s now an even more coveted asset to China and also a strategic ally to the US. The difference now is that China is a super power and has the means to actually take control of Taiwan in deed, not just in word. If this were to happen, very bad things could ensue depending on how the US reacts.

The author recommends strategic ambiguity. Keeping Taiwan in cryogenic geopolitical stasis has worked for the country and the world for at least 40 years, so the author argues that this should be continued. Taiwan’s sovereignty should remain ambiguous to keep the coping status quo. The missing part from this book is that TSMC will open a plant in Arizona. I would love to know what the author would think about this development.

[Lucia · Rating 4 out of 5]

If anyone wants to understand what makes the topic of Taiwanese sovereignty such a powder keg on the world stage, you should read this book.

As someone who has traveled to China and Taiwan, I understood there was tension but not the the reasoning behind the strained relationship between these two bodies and the U.S. In just over 200 pages, Kerry a Brown explains at a high level Taiwanese identity today, the history of the island and its relationship to China, how it became a democracy, the power of its economy, how the U.S. became involved, the possibility of escalations to warfare, and how to possibly cool the tensions.

Brown offers an unbiased look at the entirety of the situation and educates me better than any resource I've had so far. Its obviously not as in depth as gaining a political science degree, but for your average person like myself who wants to be educated on such an important topic, this is a great resource.

[Jason Furman · Rating 3 out of 5]

This was just the short primer I needed on Taiwan, with a bit of history, politics, economics, current international relations, speculation about what a Chinese invasion would look like, and analysis of various diplomatic options. There was nothing earth shattering original but it seems highly reliable, sympathetic and balanced. Ultimately it is written from the perspective of a diplomat who believes deeply in all sides talking and being reasonable--but a diplomat without a lot of illusions but who thinks playing for time could result in a better configuration of options than there are at present.

[Madison ✨ (mad.lyreading) · Rating 4 out of 5]

Why Taiwan Matters is an easy read for a beginner who understands there is conflict but not why. I found this topic to be extremely interesting, though I will say that the book is only half history, with the other half about current political issues concerning Taiwan. The author self-narrates, and I didn't really love his narration. The book itself, however, was straightforward and simple to understand, without handwaiving overly complex issues out of the picture. This is a great introductory read for someone who wants to know more about this topic.

Thank you to NetGalley and Macmillan Audio for an audio ARC in exchange for an honest review.

[Keen Reader · Rating 3 out of 5]

2.5 Stars!

“In the 130 years since 1895, Taiwan island only formed part of a unified China for little over four of them.”

China is like a controlling and possessive ex-who just can’t seem to except that it’s over and that Taiwan no longer want to be with them, like all big bully nations (USA, Russia et al) it resorts to acting like a big, spoiled, overfed child throwing tantrum after tantrum when it doesn’t get what it think it deserves.

Brown gives a decent history, background and account of Taiwan from its origins right up to its ever precarious position. From the 1970s it became one of the Four Asian Tigers (Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea being the others). He also touches on some of the other major political occurrences since WWII from The 228 Event (1947) to the Kaohsiung Incident (1979), as well as the impact of US politicians such as Nixon and Kissinger right up to Nancy Pelosi had on the island.

Apparently between 1951 and 65 the US gave $11.4 billion to the country, which Chiang Kai-Shek used to actually improve the economic conditions of the nation. But also this is the same man who from 1949 imposed a harsh period of martial law which the Taiwanese people endured for 38 years, before matters began to turn around.

Taiwan eventually excelled in manufacturing and industry, in particular the likes of semi-conductors. It also helped that they had easy access to well-educated cheap labour. Shek also implemented a series of major land reforms, addressing some of the social imbalances and inequalities, capping rents and allowing tenants to buy public land, with large estates broken up and sold on to individual buyers.

His son, Ching-kuo also boosted the nation from the 70s onwards with his Ten Major Construction Projects, which included a new international airport. By the 1980s they had created over 160 universities or colleges too.

“The Taiwan-US-China nexus is the world’s most consequential triangular relationship. Each party is linked to the others in important but distinct ways.”

Historically the US’s attitude towards Taiwan has been one of “ambiguous neutrality” – a phrase which is as vague, fickle and maddening in reality as it is on paper. We see, depending on their political/economical goals at the time, America can quickly and effortlessly shift allegiances and betray without conscience or consequence when the political conditions suit its global agenda.

Apparently the Korean War played a crucial role in saving and securing the fragile status, preserving its sovereignty for a while longer, as it made the US and the West more wary of China, communism and the possible repercussions. So there you go.

[Owen Hatherley · Rating 4 out of 5]

Another book that isn't so much the story of Taiwan as the story of Taiwan straits geopolitics, but a sensible one, that ends with 30 impassioned pages of 'for god's sake don't do this'.

[Dave Reads · Rating 4 out of 5]

For many years, we have read warnings of China’s ambitions for Taiwan and what military action would mean for the region, the US, and the world. Kerry Brown, an expert on China who has written 20 books on the subject since 2006, provides an excellent primer on the history of Taiwan and its likely future. It adds context to the headlines we read today and will likely hear about in the future.

Most Americans know little about this small island. But its past is full of outside powers fighting to control it—from Japan to China. But today, the fight is not only about territory. It’s about identity, freedom, and power.

Most people in Taiwan now see themselves as Taiwanese, not Chinese. That shift happened over many years. Taiwan became a democracy, embraced free speech, and built a strong economy. Meanwhile, China kept tight control over its people and didn’t allow open debate or elections.
That difference is the heart of the tension. China wants Taiwan back. It says Taiwan has always been part of its nation. Taiwan disagrees. It wants to decide its own future. But making that official could trigger war.

The author says the danger is real. China now has the military strength to act. The U.S. says it supports Taiwan, but its promises are vague on purpose. That’s called “strategic ambiguity.” It’s a way to prevent either side from making the first move. Still, voices in Washington have become louder, saying they’d defend Taiwan if China attacks.

At the same time, Taiwan’s economy is tightly tied to China. That makes the situation even harder. China is both a threat and a top trade partner. Taiwan’s tech industry—especially its world-leading chips—makes it vital to the global economy. That helps it stay safe. But it’s not a sure shield.
For now, the only thing keeping peace is the stalemate. No one wants to start a disaster. But if Taiwan wants to stay free, it must prepare. That means spending more on defense and being honest with its people. Freedom always comes with a cost. Taiwan knows that. The rest of us should pay attention too.

** Top Takeaways From The Book **

Taiwan sees itself as separate from China
Most Taiwanese identify as Taiwanese, not Chinese. The divide in identity has grown stronger over time.

China’s power has grown—and so has the threat
China now has the military and economic strength to pressure or attack Taiwan, something it couldn't do before.

Democracy sets Taiwan apart
Taiwan is a free, diverse, and democratic society. That sharply contrasts with China’s one-party rule and tight control.

The U.S. uses “strategic ambiguity”
America supports Taiwan but avoids clear promises. This is meant to prevent either side from acting rashly.

Taiwan’s tech industry is a global asset
Taiwan makes over 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductors. That gives it global importance—and added risk.

China’s push for reunification is emotional and strategic
For China, Taiwan is tied to national pride and global standing. Losing it feels unacceptable.

The risk of war is rising
Military experts and global leaders worry that conflict over Taiwan could erupt soon—and would be devastating.

Taiwan’s defense spending has lagged
Despite growing threats, Taiwan underfunded its military for years. Only recently has it started to reverse that trend.

The economic ties with China are deep—but risky
Taiwan relies heavily on trade with China. That link brings both profit and vulnerability.

Stalemate may be the safest option—for now
No side wants to back down, but war would hurt everyone. The uneasy balance has kept peace—barely.


** Memorable Excerpts **

Xi is a populist, pursuing the same ‘drain the swamp’ narrative that Donald Trump did in America during his 2016 election campaign. He wants to make China great again. That means bringing back Taiwan. The island has always mattered to Chinese leaders, but today it matters more than ever. The problem for the rest of the world is that, in recent years in China, public confidence in the government – at least in this part of its foreign policy – and the country’s increased military capacity have aligned. To add to the mix, the Chinese authorities are living in a world where, since 2010, regard for the West economically and politically amongst many Chinese has eroded. The election of Trump; the confusion and travails in the European Union with events such as Brexit; the invasion of Ukraine by Russia; and finally the explosion of war in the Middle East and the impact of that on the wider world – all of these have reinforced in the minds of leaders like Xi that they might have their own problems, but the rest of the world is chaotic, unpredictable and declining in power. ‘China the Winner’ is Xi’s theme. And for Taiwan that means offering the island a simple choice: join the winning team today on your terms; or later, on ours. But join you will have to.

China is usually a rational actor. But when it comes to Taiwan, the heart takes charge over the head. The island as a spiritual and symbolic issue matters hugely.

If Xi does decide to do something, we will immediately enter a new world. It will be a terrifying and chaotic one. It will see the US and China pitted against each other in ways they have managed to avoid since the Korean War more than seventy years ago. Everyone on the planet will be affected. Xi will no doubt be aware of this, as he sits, contemplating what he will need to instruct his military to do. The most worrying thought is that he may believe he has no options. Red lines may have been crossed. The irresistible logic of Chinese nationalism and the march to greatness don’t offer easy exit ramps. As with the build-up to the First World War, the globe would have sleepwalked into conflict. But this time it could be terminal. That is why the China–Taiwan issue needs the commitment and attention of the rest of the world.

No matter how much things might appear to have changed in the last few decades, we need to remind ourselves, every day, about why this policy was constructed, why it has worked so long, and why jettisoning or chipping away at it would cause a catastrophe. It might not be much of a defence as we head further into the twenty-first century. But, at the moment, it is the only one we have. To further undermine or even abandon it would be to court disaster.

The New York Times in October 2023 declared that ‘a war between the United States and China over Taiwan could be the most brutal since World War II’.4 Analyst Robert A. Manning, writing in January 2024, stated: ‘Short of a nuclear war, a conflict over Taiwan would unquestionably cause catastrophic economic damage, not only for the United States and mainland China but for the rest of the world.’5 So while there was still some disagreement over whether a war would happen, and how it might pan out if it started, there was broad consensus that any conflict would be serious, and that all involved would suffer calamity. That at least hinted at the imperative for all parties to show some restraint.

[Megan Johnston · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book makes a great argument for strategic ambiguity. It’s probably wise. Sometimes maintaining an awKward trucE built on bordErline childish wordPlay can be necessary. I enjoyed learning more about the recent political history of TAIWAN and I think the author did a Fantastic job of building his case without getting too woRdy. If he dEcidEd to write more on the subject, I would check it out!

[Vicky · Rating 3 out of 5]

3.5/5

Nothing groundbreaking but did a good job running through Taiwanese political history and covering the basics of the impact Taiwan has on global politics and economy. I gained lot more context on the Taiwan-China ongoing conflict.

As a note, I kind of feel like this book explicitly minimizes other conflicts going on in the world (read: Palestine/Israel and Ukraine/Russia) and I feel like that was unnecessary; just not mentioning it would have been fine.

[Zośna · Rating 4 out of 5]

3.8⭐️ czytałam ją milion lat, przegadana trochę

[Jolanta (knygupė) · Rating 3 out of 5]

3,5*

[Richard · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is a scary book. It isn’t the type of scary where creatures jump out at you from dark spaces. Instead, it is more like watching a giant boulder slowly careening down the hill toward your house and family. You know what the danger is but you have absolutely no way to stop the inevitable catastrophe. It is also scary because the author is a sinologist, basically an expert on China and East Asia, and he too seems to feel that there is little to be done. In the author’s words, “The Taiwan-US-China nexus is the world’s most consequential triangular relationship” and further “that the differences between China, Taiwan and the US and its allies over how to achieve security are currently insurmountable.”

One of the main reasons that I picked up this book is that my daughter-in-law is Taiwanese and, therefore, my three grandkids are half Taiwanese. They and other members of the family, travel to Taiwan frequently. I am luckily enough, several years ago, to have had them take me to the island where I was awed by its people, prosperity, and culture.

Taiwan is a thriving island. Their economy is excellent and it is one of the world’s most important supplier of semiconductors; one of which is probably in your computer, cell phone, or tablet. They have a rich culture, a highly educated workforce, and excellent food (their chou doufu or stinky tofu is worth the trip).

Taiwan’s history is complicated and is reflected in the fact that it is referred to by many different names including; Formosa, Republic of China, and Chinese Taipei. The core issue addressed in this book is whether or not Taiwan is a part of China, or ever was, or is it an independent state. China, or the People's Republic of China, claims that Taiwan is just one of many islands that belong to the mainland. The United States has taken the position that it is a separate, democratic island. When the People's Republic of China (PRC) was established in 1949, the former leader, Chiang Kai-shek, retreated to Taiwan, which he proclaimed as the Republic of China, and from which he planned to retake mainland China. Since his death in 1975 Taiwan has evolved into a democracy, developed a thriving economy, and became an important ally of the United States in this volatile region.

This book centers around the totally divergent positions of to whom the island belongs. Should China try to take it back by force or should Taiwan declare itself an independent nation, the area would become a war zone that could easily evolved into World War III. So, as I said in the beginning, this is a very scary book. It is also one that you should read.

[Rosalyn · Rating 4 out of 5]

" A non-democratic Taiwan would be ignored. A democratic one cannot be sacrificed. Values and ideals means it's an indispensable ally. Its defeat by China would not just a be a territorial and economic catastrophe, but an ideological and moral one."

This sentence sums up the answer to the titular question. For a place that embodies both Eastern and Western values, it both benefits and suffers for it, and their quest for recognition on the global stage depends on the moral fortitude of economically and militarily stronger democracies such as the U.S., to back up an ideology. Which...moral integrity across all nations and people nowadays is on the decline LOL. There is no more knight in shining armor, acting on higher purpose, "defending democracy". Or maybe I'm just a cynic. Taiwan unfortunately lacks the ability to defend itself despite its economic success, which shows that they can't depend on the "silicon shield" they've used to rise the tech ladder. Sure, they hold a microchip monopoly - for now. If that were to go away, as crass as it is to say, would Taiwan be worth defending?

Brown succinctly details Taiwan's journey from an untouched island to colonial outpost to various countries to province to nationhood, and not just from that perspective, but economically, culturally, politically how they've evolved, absorbing influence from different countries over the years. I appreciated that Brown didn't overtly push his own opinion on whether Taiwan should or shouldn't be its own nation, he mostly stuck to historical facts and factors as to how and why Taiwan is in the position it's in now.

The only parts I didn't care for were the rundowns of all the Taiwanese presidents over the years, it was too in the weeds / could've been pared down to just the most notable ones. The political analysis at the end didn't really state anything new / was a non-answer - not that I expected one from such a short book, or for such a predicament, it obviously won't be neatly resolved. This book is great as an introduction into this topic, just enough to get the bullet points and some historical context. I learned a lot!

Thank you to NetGalley and Macmillan for an ARC in exchange for an honest review.

[Tony · Rating 5 out of 5]

With Why Taiwan Matters, Western readers gain a swiftly moving, accessible understanding of the history of China-Taiwan relations, why they matter to us, and what we ought to do about them. Kerry Brown’s answer to that last question — “absolutely nothing” — seems unsatisfying, but Brown ably explains why the alternatives stand to be much, much worse.



Taiwan’s importance to China is twofold. Because Chinese-speaking and -looking people live there, and have done so for centuries, Taiwan is a part of China’s self-assumed identity. And, owing to its geography and its unparalleled semiconductor-manufacturing industry, Taiwan is seen by China as critical to the latter’s security.

How does this tiny oasis of fierce democrats separate itself from its massive authoritarian big brother, with its nuclear arsenal and the People’s Liberation Army, for good? If you have the answer, then you will have solved the riddle that has flummoxed experts since the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949. Brown’s conclusion is that any effort to do so would wreak unthinkable destruction, so best to leave it alone.

Knowing next to nothing about Taiwan before picking this up, I gained an amateur outsider’s grasp on what makes this corner of world so prickly. What more can one ask for from such a tight volume? Just try not to think about it too much when you’re trying to drift off to sleep.

[Dawn Michelle · Rating 3 out of 5]

eBook - 3 Stars

While this is a well-researched, well-written [mostly], excellently narrated book, and I DID learn quite a bit, I have to admit that a good chunk of this book was above my pay-grade [and unfortunately, it also slogs a bit in some parts] and I really struggled with those parts. I will say that it did make me want to learn more about Taiwan and the struggle with China [and then perhaps a re-read of this book when I understand more] as the stuff I understood in this book really impressed on me how we need to keep Taiwan on our side [that seems to be an insurmountable hill given our current administration] and we all need to be prepared for anything. We all should be learning about the relationship [as fraught as it is] between Taiwan and China because that is the ONLY way to banish ignorance and complacency. May we all strive for that.

Audiobook - 4 Stars
Kerry Brown is an excellent narrator and he made even the tough [and for me, confusing] parts enjoyable [a big feat I think]. Should the author ever want to retire, I would bet that he could have a very popular career as a full-time narrator. I highly recommend this audiobook!!

Thank you to NetGalley, Kerry Brown, St. Martin's Press, and Macmillan Audio for providing the eBook and audiobook ARC's in exchange for an honest review.

[Brian Thorson · Rating 4 out of 5]

The author makes a compelling case for the significance of Taiwan but fails to address whether or not most in the west care, identify with their cause, or that the fate of Taiwan determines the future. Still, a worthwhile read benefitting from historical context and current realities.

[Paula]

Szczerze to liczyłam na więcej półprzewodników

[Nick · Rating 3 out of 5]

The first half of this book is a history of Taiwan as it stands today and its precarious political system over the decades. The latter half talks about Taiwan's contemporary political state and why it is perhaps more precarious today than before. But in doing this, the author comes across as yet another condescending British politico who is part of a long line of damaging British foreign policy.

The author's main point is that we need to keep the status quo because a war would be so costly. In doing this, the author seems entirely apathetic to the actual political status of Taiwanese residents. He briefly touches on their own personal interests and seems dismissive of them. He doesn't care what they want. He basically pushes them to be absorbed into China over time regardless whether they want that.

There's a condescending narrative he tells late in the book about a brute US president who decides to force the issue and triggers a war but doesn't seem to view the equivalent of Chinese leadership as overly bold and risk-taking. Anything China does seems entirely justified yet the US is seen as entirely unwarranted. Peace requires all parties to agree to it and that isn't guaranteed.

So I think the author's desire for the status quo fails to be convincing even as the book's history does show why Taiwan has developed its own, *indepenent*, nation over the decades.

[Jim Welke · Rating 4 out of 5]

The author provides a history of Taiwan and its relationship with China. For the past 500 - 600 years, the island has been under the control of a foreign power or Chinese leaders who were evicted from office and lost control of Mainland China to a new regime. And, of course, the European Powers carved up China, leading to the Opium Wars, leaving China with little control over its own affairs, much less a small island off the coast.

He also evaluates a possible war with the US protecting Taiwan from China. Even though the US forces are technologically out in front of China, the Chinese have made great progress in their aircraft and submarines. China can put more military on the battlefield, in a short amount of time, than the US has on active duty. Two thoughts remain: how much is China willing to pay to take the island, and what will be left of the island when the shooting ends.

[Darlene · Rating 1 out of 5]

After the initial introduction of facts, it became a repetitive and wordy essay.

[William · Rating 4 out of 5]

An interesting treatise on the issues that Taiwan faces

I was initially a bit disappointed when I started reading this book; I expected far more of a history book than one focusing on current affairs. That is my own failure and not one of the book itself. Adjusting my lens, it was a short and compelling read, touching on the history of both the island and the industries (Semiconductors etc.) that ‘protect’ it.

Brown posits that the current system that exists regarding cross-strait relations is pretty much the best we can hope for (while advocating for more co-operation). He showcases how the Taiwan issue has been, and might continue to be even more, exploited by Western politicians to further their own political goals, without thinking how this impacts the security of the island itself. This is a pretty conservative view (in terms of action, not politically conservative), but after reading his explanation I am hard pressed to think of a better alternative that doesn’t rely too much on idealism.

All in all, a good read for modern day Taiwan policy, but this is not a history book, don’t expect much talk on the Japanese occupation or Chiang Kai-Shek. 3.8/5

[Peter A · Rating 4 out of 5]

The subtitle of this book, “A Short History of a Small Island that Will Dictate Our Future,” captures the essence of its content.

But why another book on Taiwan and why it matters, given the recent and past contributions (many, but not all, are listed in this book’s references), by Chou and Harrison, Sullivan and Nachman, Clements (all in 2024) and Riggers (with the same title, 2011) and Manthorpe (2005).

The author would likely argue, much has changed with the world since Rigger’s 2011 book. Consider the three actors:
1. China (under Xi) has become bold and confident (some think arrogant), with a much stronger economy than decades before, a stronger military, and much more nationalists.
2. Taiwanese have increasing grown further from China. Several new generations have grown up, never having lived on the mainland. And in general, China’s belligerence in the region and its failure to keep its promise in Hong Kong have alienated Taiwanese. They see themselves as different from the Chinese. Furthermore, since 2016, the DPP have won the presidency, and pursue policies to build partnerships around the world.
3. The West, led by the US, feels threatened and angered by the major challenge of China and beset by internal division. Furthermore, the mercurial US president does not provide a stable third person in the debate.

The book’s strengths include:
• Current and very up to date on affairs in Taiwan and China;
• Writing that is easy to digest;
• Summary of the history and current affairs that is balanced;
• Timeline of key events in Taiwan’s history;
• Perspective clear and well argued (it does not mean one has to agree).

The heart of the book is the argument that sanity needs to prevail in this three-or-more-actor interaction.

He worries that as believe more in issues of sovereignty, identity, national pride, and idealistic stances (democracy vs authoritarianism), the reality of an armed conflict and its consequences fade from decision making.

Though China and the world are linked economically, he points to the First World War’s onset with strong economic ties. That did not prevent the war. With all the weapon arsenals today, the consequences would be devastating for the world.

While people dislike the “one China, two-systems” approach, or the US’s strategic ambiguity, he is convinced that TODAY there is no solution to the three parties. The best course would be to accept that this is a long-term issue, and focus on short - term strategies to keep the tensions at a simmer, rather than boiling over into consequences that harm everyone.

So, all three actors need to lower the rhetoric. He is also astounded that with such a potential flashpoint, there are no high-level discussions between China and Taiwan.

Agree or disagree with the author’s bottom line, the author provides a reasoned summary of Taiwan’s history and current role in the China-US-Taiwan dance.

Some comments:
• George H. Kerr was a key figure in Taiwan in the early days of Taiwan’s retrocession from Japan to the Republic of China. His book, Formosa Betrayed, is an eyewitness account of the terror in Taiwan in March 1947. While the author and the book are referenced (p 240) correctly, in the text (pages 43 and 53) and Index (page 246), George Kerr is referred to as Gordon Kerr. This is NOT correct. PLEASE CORRECT THIS!
• The summary level of the book is great for first-time readers of Taiwan’s history. Yet, it obscures the pain of the events from March 1947, 38 years of state-sponsored terror, and the triumph emergence of a peace transition to democracy. Hopefully, readers will learn more about Taiwan.
• Too often in Taiwan’s history, the will of the Taiwanese has not been involved. In the original Treaty of Shimonoseki, China ceded Taiwan to Japan, without any input from the Taiwanese. At the end of WWII, was again administered by the Republic of China, again without any input from the Taiwanese. This was meant to be a short-term solution until the Allies decided the fate of Taiwan. It never happened.
o Thus, the fact that the author places Taiwan as an actor with agency in the future is important.
o While the author's approach is balanced (China-Taiwan, within Taiwan), his perspective is less from the Taiwanese than in the book by Chou and Harrison.

Finally, it seems the author has spent time in both China and Taiwan, has many colleagues in both places. The book’s balance may be an attempt to thread a very difficult needle of acquaintances.

FB: A thoughtful, well-argued, and readable book. A contribution to perspective about Taiwan. With a balanced perspective, the author argues that while pressures drive for clarity for Taiwan, “for today, the strenuous defense of the stalemate is all that we can meaningfully do. Anything else is insanity.”


Books Referenced

Chou, Catherine Lila and Mark Harrison. Revolutionary Taiwan: Making Nationhood in a Changing World Order. Amherst, NY, Cambria Press.2024.
Clements, Jonathan. Rebel Island: The Incredible History of Taiwan. Victoria, Australia, Scribe, 2024.
Sullivan, Jonathan and Lev Nachman. Taiwan: A Contested Democracy Under Threat. Newcastle upon Tyne, Agenda Publishing Limited, 2024.

Rigger, Shelley. Why Taiwan Matters: Small Island, Global Powerhouse? Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc., 2011.
Manthorpe, Jonathan. Forbidden Nation: A History of Taiwan. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2009. Originally published 2005.

[djcb · Rating 3 out of 5]

Booklet about Taiwan -- it's history, esp. the road to democracy and the political ebb and flows since. And of course, the dealings with the mainland.

Overall interesting read, though perhaps a bit of inflated magazine article. Including an unlikely-sounding "what if" scenario with a loud-mouth American president who won the election with Taiwanese independence as a key-part of his message.

[Edward Bush · Rating 3 out of 5]

Speaks in more broad terms than other books like The Avoidable War by Kevin Rudd, which lays out more concrete and detailed reasons for the current situation getting to where it is today, and how to confront it. Brown's analysis at the end of the different schools of thought in the West on how to deal with the Taiwan situation is the best part of the book in my opinion.

[cc · Rating 4 out of 5]

audio-ARC from NetGalley.

What is there to say about nonfiction such as this except that I was utterly fascinated. The sheer magnitude of what could happen if Taiwan & China's perilous relationship breaks down is frightening. Excellent audio.

[Chengkai Xie · Rating 4 out of 5]

Informative and up-to-date

[Caiti Beans · Rating 3 out of 5]

Fine. Relevant

[BenAbe · Rating 3 out of 5]

The books serves as a good introduction to the Taiwan issue as it stands today. The author presents the history and political evolution of Taiwan primarily through the lens of its people. While he doesn’t offer an exhaustive historical account, the past of the island is invoked as a reference to frame Taiwan’s emerging identity and its Shakey relationship with mainland China. Brown shows how Taiwan’s democratic journey evolved from decades of martial law into one of Asia’s most vibrant democracies. The narrative follows the gradual opening of political space, first the toleration of opposition parties, then their participation in elections, and finally, the achievement of universal suffrage and peaceful transfers of power. All of this happens under the ever present shadow of a belligerent northern neighbor (China).
The China–Taiwan relationship is one of unilateral assertion from the PRC, and increasing rejection on the part of many in Taiwan. While Beijing sees Taiwan as an inseparable part of its historical and cultural self, Taiwan has steadily developed its own identity,even though this identity is anything but uniform(there are variations) but the trend is clear: most Taiwanese today either identify exclusively as Taiwanese or as both Taiwanese and Chinese. Those identifying as only Chinese constitute a very small minority (making it effectively negligible). One key reason for this identity shift is generational change: younger Taiwanese have no memory of a "home" in the mainland, unlike older generations who fled with the KMT after the Civil War. Another factor is Beijing’s aggression, its military drills, threats, and political messaging have backfired, strengthening the island’s desire to remain distinct. The divergence between Taiwan and China has become so great that Brown characterizes the two societies as increasingly diametrically opposed. Though both sides once operated under the framework of the 1992 Consensus(agreeing there is “One China” but with differing interpretations of what that means)this consensus effectively broke down after the 2016 election of a DPP government in Taiwan (The DPP rejects the consensus and advocates a more independent line).
The U.S. role is also central. While it officially acknowledges China’s claim over Taiwan, it does not endorse it. Through strategic ambiguity, the U.S. maintains a delicate balance: it deters China from attacking and Taiwan from declaring formal independence, without making any firm commitments either way. The author warns, however, that this ambiguity is starting to erode, as U.S. rhetoric becomes more confrontational.
The author's conclusion is essentially one of pragmatic patience. He advocates for preserving the status quo because the stakes are simply too high. Taiwan is crucial not just geopolitically, but economically, especially as the heart of global semiconductor production. Any conflict would be catastrophic. His remedy is to avoid disruption at all costs, keep dialogue open if possible, and (essentially )wait it out until circumstances change.

A decent guide to help navigate the outlines of what may (or may not) impose itself upon us in the near future (the year 2027 was thrown around alot whether here or elsewhere).

Rate: 3/5

[Alex Arriaga · Rating 2 out of 5]

This was a decent book on the history of the island of Taiwan, diving into various essential topics such as the identity of the people who reside on the island, its road to its current democratic government, and why the US has essentially guaranteed its safety from the People's Republic of China. It starts strong and reads like an academic paper when discussing Taiwan's history, but eventually devolves into a series of wordy ideas and opinions from the author.

Based on the book's title, I expected this work to be mainly fact-driven, focusing on how international events have led to Taiwan's current status and its impact on the global economy, rather than being heavily influenced by Brown's biases in the latter sections and, at times, naivety.

"Taiwan needs to be wary of engaging with adventurist politicians driven more by their own domestic agenda than a sincere desire to contribute to the sustainable management of the island's situation."

The above quote is part of an excerpt of a 'What if?' chapter near the conclusion, where a hypothetical future US president is elected due to their stance of actively supporting Taiwanese independence. First of all, what politicians, outside of Taiwan or China, would make Taiwan's safe transition to independence a priority, based solely on goodwill? When has the US or any other modern government intervened in another nation's affairs where the reasoning behind it wasn't transactional at best or exploitative at worst in nature? If today's politicians and governments simply operated on goodwill, then the war in Ukraine would be over, and the UN Security Council would be actively ending the current genocide in Sudan.

The author also portrays the situation in Taiwan as the most significant conflict (or potential conflict) at the time of publication. Yet their solution is to wait, hope the situation somehow improves, and do nothing in the meantime. Sometimes it is better to say nothing than to present no meaningful insight. It would have been more impactful for Brown to discuss more facts and numbers, such as when he mentioned that Taiwan's defense spending per GDP had fallen from 1988 to 2019, but did not list reasons why or even monetary figures, given that Taiwan's economy has grown significantly since then due to TSMC and Foxconn.

Overall, I would instead recommend the Wikipedia article on Taiwan and researching the global importance of TSMC to anyone interested in learning the basics about its precarious sovereignty.