Jump to ratings and reviews
Rate this book

Will College Pay Off?: A Guide to the Most Important Financial Decision You'll Ever Make

Rate this book
The decision of whether to go to college, or where, is hampered by poor information and inadequate understanding of the financial risk involved.

Adding to the confusion, the same degree can cost dramatically different amounts for different people. A barrage of advertising offers new degrees designed to lead to specific jobs, but we see no information on whether graduates ever get those jobs. Mix in a frenzied applications process, and pressure from politicians for "relevant" programs, and there is an urgent need to separate myth from reality.

Peter Cappelli, an acclaimed expert in employment trends, the workforce, and education, provides hard evidence that counters conventional wisdom and helps us make cost-effective choices. Among the issues Cappelli analyzes

What is the real link between a college degree and a job that enables you to pay off the cost of college, especially in a market that is in constant change?
Why it may be a mistake to pursue degrees that will land you the hottest jobs because what is hot today is unlikely to be so by the time you graduate.

Why the most expensive colleges may actually be the cheapest because of their ability to graduate students on time.
How parents and students can find out what different colleges actually deliver to students and whether it is something that employers really want.

College is the biggest expense for many families, larger even than the cost of the family home, and one that can bankrupt students and their parents if it works out poorly. Peter Cappelli offers vital insight for parents and students to make decisions that both make sense financially and provide the foundation that will help students make their way in the world.

224 pages, Hardcover

First published April 7, 2015

Loading...
Loading...

About the author

Peter Cappelli

46 books13 followers
George W. Taylor Professor of Management Director of the Center for Human Resources

Ratings & Reviews

What do you think?
Rate this book

Friends & Following

Create a free account to discover what your friends think of this book!

Community Reviews

5 stars
9 (9%)
4 stars
34 (36%)
3 stars
36 (38%)
2 stars
14 (14%)
1 star
1 (1%)
Displaying 1 - 27 of 27 reviews
Profile Image for Bryan Alexander.
Author 5 books318 followers
October 6, 2015
A very useful, hard-headed, and focused book, Will College Pay Off? covers exactly what that title promises. Peter Cappelli looks deeply into higher education as an economic proposition for would-be students. As such, this should be handy for a lot of people, at least in the United States.

The answer to that titular question is: it depends (that's actually the subtitle for chapter 3). Cappelli is serious enough and well grounded in the literature to not offer flip answers. "[C]ollege per se isn't a clear pathway to a good job." (172) To an extent it depends on major, but also on the job market following graduation. Liberal arts degrees (as in well-rounded and interdisciplinary, not necessarily humanities degrees) are one good way to maximize value, he argues, since they often lead to higher lifetime earnings (lower in the first job, but better in the second and following).

One major theme of the book is that many of our discussions about college's benefits stem from a specific historical moment, whose time is now passing. Cappelli notes that the idea of companies hiring graduates for the skills they learned in college is really a post-WWII development (12-15), depending on the huge postwar expansion of higher ed, and its relatively low cost. High ed has ballooned since then into something much larger, and is now increasingly expensive. This observation helps explain a lot of intergenerational tension over higher education, by the way.

"We can understand why politicians don't want to say it, but unfortunately, education is just not a panacea for the difficulties that individuals now face in the job market." (187; emphasis added)

Another, wonkier theme is that the college premium may not be all it's cranked up to be. That term refers to the likely lifelong earnings boost one gets from having completed colleges (as opposed to sticking with, say, a high school diploma). Some studies find this premium to add up to a half million dollars for men, which makes even high student debt seem like a good deal. But Capelli thinks the premium is inflated, especially because of a recent development, whereby college grads compete with non-college grads for jobs that don't require a BA/BS (93). Moreover, the types of people who tend to achieve an undergraduate degree often have "advantages before he or she even starts college as compared to the average high school graduate" (93) - i.e., they have better K-12 schooling and/or more social capital and/or are wealthy or otherwise privileged. On top of that, the college premium research is based on a different historical moment (see preceding paragraph).

A major takeaway is that choosing a major for post-graduation job prospects is often a losing game. All too often too many other students make the same decision, which then depresses wages and/or reduces the number of available jobs in that field. It's a regular boom/bust cycle. (44)
The efforts to press public universities and colleges to turn out more students in the fields that employers say they want... is a fool's errand...
[T]rying to predict what will be hot in the labor market several years in the future is almost impossible.(157)
In fact, majoring in a seemingly lucrative field only to see opportunities wither upon graduation can lead one straight to a second career, and hence the strength of liberal arts programs. Cappelli insists that companies say "what they want from recent graduates is less about classroom knowledge and more about experiences outside the classroom" (186).

Another takeaway: colleges and universities aren't necessarily well skilled at preparing students for employment. Some - many - don't publish useful data about post-graduation careers (72), with the notable exception of St. Olaf College. Not all offer a comprehensive support network, including tutoring and testing for course placement (76). A few hundred schools offer science master's programs and other co-op programs, which Cappelli finds to be actually really useful.

Will College Pay Off? is almost wistful in its admiration for what sounds like old-school schooling. Listen to this conclusion:
Maybe the appropriate alternative is to let college do what it is good at, which is educating rather than training, focusing on knowledge and life skills rather than job skills, and to find connections into the job market through other paths.(173)
But Cappelli immediately follows that with "Those paths might be low-paid, entry-level jobs, possibly boot camps or practical skills taught elsewhere, or even unpaid internships."

Another useful bit of advice to students: maximize job experience while at college, including internships and summer jobs (52, 160). Employers often complain about new hires lacking basic job survival skills. Cappelli thinks we need more apprenticeships - which can reduce the amount of postsecondary education, and are also lamentably thin on the American ground (65). Plus aim for grants, which tend to lead to better academic results than loans or work-study (132).

I did enjoy Cappelli's dry sense of humor. This appears right from the start: "The problem is, none of those people saying that more kids should go to college are offering to pay for it." (5) Or:
The famous Ivy League is actually an athletic league bound together by a set of principles that effectively limit the role of sports on campus. (129-130)

And this: "For a majority of colleges, the annual return on the investment in attending has been around 7%, which may sound great, about what the stock market earns, but the interest rate on unsubsidized student loans is also about 7%." (180)

So what's not to like? Cappelli's narrow focus sometimes leads him to miss some really useful point. He just touches on competency-based programs (86), which seem to have a lot of potential for improving one's passage through universities. He addresses policy implications late in the book, and doesn't cover them enough. His advice for academic institutions is scant.

That said, Will College Pay Off? is a fine book for parents of prospective students, and those students. Policymakers and campus leaders might find this a bracing inspiration.
Profile Image for Amy.
845 reviews51 followers
December 8, 2015
At heart I am still secretly a higher ed dork. I don't follow the field as obsessively as I once did, but in a past life I was reading everything I could about who goes to college, how they get there, and what happens once they leave.

In part, this book scratched that itch with lots of data and stories. And in part I came away feeling like this book was lacking.

I'll also confess that I aggressively skimmed this one, looking for the little nuggets to take home with me.

My TL;DR on this book is that it significantly questions commonly held assumptions about how degrees, particularly degrees in STEM, play out not only in the short-term job market (first gig out of school) but on the long-term job market as well. The liberal artist in me is happy that somebody has a data-rich argument calling shenanigans on the convenient narrative that STEM always equals better.

Some of my issues:

Quality of research presented. Some of Cappelli's work cites well-known studies by economists and researchers of higher ed, research that's undergone a peer review process. But that research stands alongside surveys conducted by industry associations with no comment on the different levels of scrutiny a casual reader might apply to one source of evidence over another.

Repetition and organization/ College can be everything from Harvard to the sketchy place that advertizes on the subway, and I felt like this divide was so obvious to Cappelli but his presentation tended to mix and muddle definitions. I would have much rather he organized chapters around highly selective colleges, tech schools, trade schools, and then a general chapter how degree creep affects all of these places in different ways. Or something like that. At the same time, arguments like the impossibility of predicting the future job market as a college freshman were repeated multiple times and not the more compelling for the repetition.

Cappelli is unsure of whether he is writing a how-to guide for the layman or an academic treatise. To the book's credit, it's laden with useful websites and resources for the average parent to use. It has user-friendly call-out texts for the skim-reader. To its detriment, though, it's a little heady, and, as mentioned earlier, hard to navigate for the juice you want.
Profile Image for Bill Sleeman.
803 reviews10 followers
August 18, 2015

Despite my best hopes that this book, of the many like it on the market, will provide the answer to the question that the title raises - Will College Pay Off? A Guide to the Most Important Financial Decision You’ll Ever Make it does not, at least not fully. Author Peter Cappelli does an okay job with the topic and does provide some interesting factoids but as an overall guide (as in the subtitle) it really isn’t that useful. His points, with a little editing, ultimately would have made a good blog post. As a book of 188 pages plus appendix it is very repetitive and not in a way that helps to drive the point of his message home but rather in a dull way that suggests that the author early on ran out of ways to express the same few points (stay in school once you start, top tier schools are not for everyone, avoid loans, Americans do better with STEM than the media tells us, follow your dreams…yadda, yadda, yadda).


Particularly trying for me was the continued use by Cappelli of China as sort of an academic stalking horse while at the same time he admits that the nature of their school system, economic system and labor market all make comparisons to China’s success inappropriate…so why keep referencing it then?? For an educator his language is sometimes imprecise…when he writes that something grew by “twenty years or so” I am left wondering if it was over 19 years, 20 years or more? Does the more (or less) impact the growth rate? I should think so.


As someone who has been reading a great deal about college admissions, the college search process and helping my own child make a sound financial choice I can say that Will College Pay Off? A Guide to the Most Important Financial Decision You’ll Ever Make is despite my complaints above not a bad place to start the process of trying to answer that question; just don’t stop with this book, keep looking because like the X Files the Truth is out There.


Profile Image for Sarah.
406 reviews35 followers
October 19, 2015
The real crux of the book is on page 66: "One of the reasons so many high school graduates now want to go to college is not necessarily because the options associated with college have improved. It is because the options when you don't go have gotten so much worse."

The more educated employees are bumping out the less educated employees. Did you know that you now need a bachelor's degree to be a Produce Manager at the grocery store? I'm not convinced higher education is necessary to stack fruit. But here we are, ready to send our kids off to a lifetime of significantly higher earnings. The catch? College may bankrupt you. It's one of the largest expenses that we will incur, so a plan is necessary.

The author breaks down the history, politics, expense, majors, well basically most of what we should factor before choosing a college. It's too much to go into right now, but here's a quick list of things to think about:

(1) Don't take out loans! (Since student loan debt is now the second highest debt in the country, not too many people are following this advice.)
(2) Get a general major - a really specific major can backfire if you decide to change industries.
(3) Attend the best college as you can afford - but don't think that only the most expensive and exclusive schools are the answer.
(4) You can't time the market, so just get a major in what interests you.
(5) Try for every merit, grant, scholarship you can get. (FYI - athletic scholarships account for less than 1% of all financial aid. So all those years of expensive private league bullsh*t won't make a difference.)

Are you ready? Go get that piece of paper! It does matter, just try and get it as close to free as you can.
Profile Image for Paula Cassin.
6 reviews1 follower
August 29, 2019
It's been a while since I read this book - here's what I came away with:

Good tip about not going TOO FAR down the practical path and choosing a degree that is too specialized - you can dig yourself into a hole. I retained the example of 'casino management degree' - if there is a surplus of jobs in this very narrow category, you will have trouble transferring your knowledge and degree elsewhere.

Good point about how, in the past, higher ed was not expected to produce JOB READY candidates but now it is.
He suggests that corporates are neglecting their responsibilities if they expect candidates to be ready to go straight out of school. I am not convinced it IS entirely the company's responsibility, but in any case I know many tech companies nearby who ABSOLUTELY hire based on potential and then train.

I felt that the gig economy and non-corporate paths were overlooked. With contractor, remote and gig work growing, the skills needed to be able to constantly upskill, network, land a new gig, build a client base or at least land a new job ever year or so - these are not a corporate's responsibility.
Where should young people learn them if not in formal education settings?
Profile Image for Teresa Hartling.
63 reviews7 followers
October 10, 2021
I read this book to prepare to teach an AP microeconomics course. I also happen to have a high school aged daughter. This book makes you consider the true value and the true cost of a degree. It answers the question are elite IvIes worth it? When does a two year degree make sense? It is dated at six years old; however, it’s still worth a read. The references are extensive- and deep research will bring differing findings it is worth a read.
Profile Image for Abby.
153 reviews
September 2, 2021
Here’s the deal: I didn’t even end up finishing the book. I was hopeful that it would show different ways for college to be cheaper or pay off more. But the book repeated the common phrase about whether college is worth it: it depends. There’s no guaranteed answer, no direct thoughts. It was pretty dry and hard to read. And, as I said before, it was extremely repetitive.
640 reviews
November 30, 2019
A solid introduction to the finances of a college education. A bit dated due to copyright date of 2015 but information holds up well. Definitely recommend for any prospective college student and especially any parents who might pay tuition bills.
Profile Image for Dale Jennings.
31 reviews
April 16, 2022
Decent book on a difficult subject. It is pre Covid and written not too long after the financial crisis, so some material is dated. This especially goes for his discussions on the labor market.
Profile Image for Derek.
1,918 reviews148 followers
April 29, 2023
Although a bit dated now, the book provides an excellent overview of complex, surprising, and sometimes contradictory research about the value of a college degree.
447 reviews
November 25, 2015
The book doesn't answer its question, but it does supply a lot of research and discussion on the topic. The answer - it depends. For some people, education pays very well, for many it pays okay (7% increase in pay - about the same as the interest on their student loans), and about 25% of programs have a negative return.

Then there's this: "One of the reasons so many high school graduates now want to go to college is not necessarily because the options associated with college have improved. It is because the options when you don't go have gotten so much worse."

It's not fair to compare outcomes of college graduates to high school graduates and credit the differences to the education. At age 18, those entering college are generally wealthier, have more abilities, have better family/social networks, etc., than those who don't go to college. If these students never went to college, perhaps they'd still do better based on the fact that they are the type that could got accepted and pay for it.

Unlike what we've been led to believe, "students today" in the U.S. aren't doing worse in K-12 school, most people are over educated for their jobs, there isn't necessarily a shortage of graduates with STEM degrees. Engineering is a boom and bust market based on supply/demand. Those with the "hot" degrees are simply lucky to be in the right program at the right time, you can't time the labor market given the years of school it takes to get out. Any hot jobs usually have a flood of graduates several years later depressing wages.

The book really slams highly specific degrees like "Economic Crime Investigation" or "Fire Protection Engineering" or "Hospitality Management", "Health Care Software Administration", these are degree programs? Employers seem to care most about internships and other experiences. They don't seem to care about these very specific majors that seem to lock students out of other jobs if their narrow piece of the economy isn't hiring. They don't value online degrees as much as traditional bachelor's programs and don't value GED's as much as a traditional high school diploma.
Profile Image for Reid Mccormick.
462 reviews5 followers
December 21, 2016
“A career is a marathon, not a sprint.”

The cost of college has been a point of debate for a couple of decades. It is true that tuition at colleges have increased significantly over the past twenty or thirty years. Though some are worried, the response has been the same: college is worth the investment. The narrative is part of American culture: you finish high school, you go to college, you work hard, and you leave college with great job opportunities ahead of you.

Well, things are not as clear as they used to be. The great recession combined with increased globalization and rising costs, the idea that a college degree is a solid investment has become shaky.

Is college worth it?

The simple answer: Yes.

The not-so-simple answer: Yes, but it’s difficult to understand.

When you look at all the measurements, many which are presented in Will College Pay Off?, there is no clear cut answer. Let’s look at the job market. You can go online right now and search for the hottest majors in the United States. These lists can guide you to the most profitable careers right now. But what about in four years? Or five years (which is more common for college student)? Employers will always grumble and complain about the scarcity of a qualified work force, but even they lack the foresight to know what the future holds. If employers knew the future, then they manage their own educational programs – except for the fact that it is too expensive for them too run.

Furthermore, there is little correlation between grades and performance, so why would a company do the work to train you. In fact, many companies (especially banks and investing firms) will not hire college grads until they have worked for a rival company for a couple of years. This way the rival company does all the training. This, of course, leads to the problem of entry level workers trying to find years of experience.

Though this is a solid work, I have read better works on the issue of higher education costs. The author skillfully expands on solid arguments for and against colleges. I definitely liked the book, it just doesn’t sit on the top of my list of recommended readings.
Profile Image for Douglas Lord.
712 reviews32 followers
July 1, 2015
The short answer: your mileage will vary. The slightly longer answer recalls one of AA’s many mottos: “It works if you work it.” The prolific Capelli (Why Good People Can’t Get Jobs) provides a reasoned, facts ‘n’ stats–based survey of the cultural phenomenon that is “American college.” Three themes resonate: 1. Caveat emptor; 2. Criticism of institutions shucking and jiving to strapped families with assurances of “good careers” for students who complete their programs; 3. Reminders that most employers care little for tightly focused, “practical, job-oriented majors” (e.g.,”invasive cardiovascular technology,” “casino administration,” etc.); they simply want the kids to do it the company way and are much more likely to underwrite certificate programs than hire for degreed skills. For decades, higher ed has pushed majors presumed to address future market needs, seen higher percentages of part-time students, unapologetically grown endowments, and promoted longer courses of study (e.g., the six-year bachelor’s). Seen as an economic animal, not an intellectual incubator, college is “…for many people the biggest financial decision they will ever make” often paid for with “crippling loans.” Indeed, Cappelli notes that “…the costs of attending college…went up four times faster over the past twenty years or so than the overall cost of living.” The 2015 reality is that neither a liberal arts nor a “very practical, work-based degree” guarantees any payoff whatsoever. Hell, even bankruptcy doesn’t excuse student loans. VERDICT While it won’t answer the titular question, this title will teach readers scads about the industry that is “college” and the book’s central assertion, that money spent on a college education is a risk, is simultaneously refreshing and terrifying.
Find reviews of books for men at Books for Dudes, Books for Dudes, the online reader's advisory column for men from Library Journal. Copyright Library Journal.
Profile Image for Julie.
63 reviews3 followers
May 16, 2015
I received this book as a first reads book giveaway in exchange for an honest review. This book had lots of research information, but I can't say that it answered it's own question of while college pay off? However, I think by reading it I understand that in essence no one knows that answer. Do those who have a degree have lower unemployment, currently yes. However, does that mean college is what made that happen or was it those who were determined to find a job who may have had the drive/determination to do it and more bills (college loans) that forced them to work harder to find a job? The book brought up the fact that there is so many factors in life and that in the US things change that you have to look at a lot of factors to determine for you if it will pay off. Depending on what field you go into and what is in demand plays a major role. It was good to see all the details and all the angles to look at when considering college. For me I will continue to encourage my children to further their education as I believe as I did before I read the book that college or further education beside high school is important. Now, for myself I think a MA is good in one field, but I think an associate in another or a certificate at least might be in my future as I think it will pay off based on cost to get and wages there after.
Profile Image for CaliNativeBalboa.
554 reviews3 followers
April 25, 2016
3.5 As a parent who sent her oldest off the college this fall, Will College Pay Off? really struck a chord. After starry eyed visits to multiple college campuses, the final selection process left me feeling like I'd just stepped away from a car dealership with a bad case of "buyer's remorse".
Capelli has impressive credentials from the Wharton School of Business so it was interesting that an academic was questioning the push for college education for the masses.
Much of Will College Pay Off is commonsense, don't sell the farm to pay for a college degree in a field that may be hot today, but not after four years. He also questions chasing a hot first job that may leave a graduate out in the cold a few years later as employers chase lower priced new graduates in the same field with fresher skills.
Capelli makes the case for a return to basics in college, such as well rounded degrees that teach graduates how to think critically. In addition, years spent in college enable students to mature to the point where they can be responsible, accountable employees.
Not the easiest book to read, it's still thought provoking.
Profile Image for Trey.
98 reviews3 followers
December 10, 2015
The author cites some helpful studies and makes a few good points, but largely repeats those points in a few different ways throughout the book instead of really advancing the ball.

In shorts, the college wage premium can't be attributed solely to the value of a college education. College education is expensive. There are some ways to help address some of these problems but none is a panacea.

So, the answer to the question in the title is, "maybe, depending on who you are and where the economy is when you graduate." Not all that insightful, though it does point out that "what you study in college" *isn't* what determines, necessarily, whether college will pay off. And that's the main takeaway. Stop viewing college education as vocational training because any degree that focuses narrowly on a particular set of professional skills will generally not pay off. That's an important point, but a book is too many words for that point.
Profile Image for Terry.
990 reviews38 followers
October 10, 2015
A fair, academic overview of issues that factor into answering the titular question. Ultimately, Cappelli comes to the unremarkable conclusion to whether "Will it Pay Off"...depends. If you can get into Princeton, probably. If you're likely to complete a degree in four years, probably. If you'll be saddled with loans at above-market rates, taking seven years to complete the degree, probably not.

If you are looking for a definitive answer, this isn't a good choice. If you're looking for a thoughtful survey of the broad issues, it is good background. It may take some pressure off those looking to find the perfect school, degree program, or career path. Counselors and policy makers will appreciate this more than strapped parents and families.
Profile Image for Austin J Martin.
113 reviews1 follower
July 26, 2015
This book was a insight into the forces that impact the industry of higher education and was also a look at the inner workings of some colleges and universities. What I liked the most was hearing about how outside forces impact the decisions that colleges make especially when it comes to raising the costs of college. This was an eye-opener for me because of the complexity of college institutions and what costs they have to cover. I thoroughly enjoyed reading this book and the issues and factors that influence decisions on college campuses and the reason behind those decisions. Enjoyable book and a great read!
Profile Image for Susan Robertson.
275 reviews
April 11, 2016
A must read for educators, parents, and students. The college wage premium is debunked and return on investment for many colleges particularly for-profit career schools is shown to be terrible. The book includes lots of online resources and the author references a Jon Oliver video on student debt which is hilarious but sadly true. The book does a great job of explaining the challenges that new grads face at graduation. The competition for internships is as intense as that for elite schools. Work experience and soft skills are what matter most to employers rather than actual course work.
Profile Image for Jen.
257 reviews3 followers
September 28, 2015
Interesting material and his takeaway is don't assume that by going to college you will do well. It's hard to predict the job market 4 years from now so he suggests waiting to declare a major until Jr. Year. Not sure how practical that is. Also get job experience in the form of internship or work study since employers no longer expect to train their employees.
Profile Image for Kelley Jansson.
Author 1 book
April 5, 2016
Wow–great read! I didn't just learn something from this book, but rather from every paragraph. Extremely well organized with just the right amount of supporting evidence. I found myself looking up the references as there were so many things that I found fascinating. I disagree with the author's conclusions about STEM, but other than that really valued his many insights.
210 reviews
November 23, 2015
This is a book to read the sections that are most applicable to you. Lots of boring, mundane numbers. Had some insightful sections and good links to resources for looking at colleges. Pushes liberal arts degree.
Profile Image for Tim.
179 reviews12 followers
July 20, 2015
A balanced and thorough exploration of college's rewards and costs. I recommend to anyone thinking of paying or attending college.
7 reviews1 follower
January 1, 2017
I wanted more about the value of elite colleges versus regular and state ones. The author touched on it briefly but that was all.
Displaying 1 - 27 of 27 reviews