It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over: The Baseball Prospectus Pennant Race Book

by Baseball Prospectus, Steve Goldman

Pennant races are arguably the most important aspect of baseball. Players, teams, and franchises are all after one goal: to win the pennant and get into the post-season. But what really determines who wins? Statistical analyses of baseball abound: different ways of breaking down everyone’s individual performance, from hitters and pitchers to managers and even owners. But surprisingly, team success-what makes some teams winners over an entire season-has never been looked at with the same statistical rigor. In It Ain’t Over ’Til It’s Over, The Baseball Prospectus Team of Experts introduce the Davenport Method of deciding which races were the most dramatic-the closest, the most volatile-and determine the ten greatest races of modern baseball history. They use these key races (and a few others) to answer the main question: What determines who wins? How important are such things as mid-season trades, how much a manager overworks his pitchers, and why teams have winning and losing streaks? Can one player carry a team? Can one bad player ruin a team? Can one bad play ruin a team’s chances? This fascinating and illuminating book will change your perception of the game.

Genres: Baseball, Sports, Nonfiction

480 pages, Paperback

First published August 13, 2007

About the author

Baseball Prospectus is an organization that publishes a website, BaseballProspectus.com, devoted to the sabermetric analysis of baseball. BP has a staff of regular columnists and provides advanced statistics as well as player and team performance projections on the site.

Since 1996 the BP staff has also published a Baseball Prospectus annual as well as several other books devoted to baseball analysis and history.

Reviews

[Javier Anderson · Rating 4 out of 5]

A well written seires of the stories that give the sport of baseball its historic lore, the book centers on some of the most dramatic pennant races that fans have had the pleasure to endure (if endure be the right word) through the years. From the infamous Merkle's Boner of 1908, to an appraisal of the value of the Wild Card system (this is before it was revamped again in 2022), the teams and personalities are certainly worth exploring further, and I would personally venture that another volume with the other pennant races left out would make for a splendid follow up to this page turner.

[Grindy Stone · Rating 3 out of 5]

One thing that the Bill James wannabes overlook is that he is a writer first and a statistician second. This is probably a good book for someone developing a taste for baseball, not so good for advanced students of the game.

[Charles Lovelace, III · Rating 3 out of 5]

I expected a book about all of the close pennant races. Whereas this included a chapter on each one, it also included a chapter based on some obscure statistic of Baseball Prospectus explaining why the other team(s) did not win.

[Todd Stockslager · Rating 4 out of 5]

Review title: Stat geeks feast compares races for the ages
Author listed as: "The Baseball Prospectus Team of Experts"

Baseball Prospectus is part of that intense underworld of baseball statisticans created by Bill James, popularized by Moneyball, and populated by sabremetricians and new young General Managers all around the Major Leagues. Here, the "Team of Experts" braintrust turns its attention to rate the best of the past pennant races and make meaningful statistical statements about who won, who should have, and why.

Along the way, plenty of numbers are bandied about, worked and reworked into comparisons across positions, teams, leagues, and generations. The heaviest statistical explanation is reserved for the end notes, so most baseball fans will be able to follow the math, and find it interesting. Just fair warning, of course, this is a baseball fan's book, not for casual sports fans or those new to the game.

Perhaps the most interesting use of statistics, and the best melding of it with the historical and sociological impact of the game, is the analysis of the impact of

* integration: positive for those teams who adopted it,
* racism: negative for those teams that clung to it,
* league expansion: cause or effect of the expanding talent pool?
* minor league development: overwhelming positive for those teams that pursued it, and
* playoff expansion with the institution of the wild card teams: overwhelmingly lucrative fot the owners.


These overarching themes are more interesting than the individual seasons, and in fact this might have been a higher rated book had the editors pulled these themes out and grouped them into a final longer essay on the place of these societal effects in the game of baseball and how they so directly impact the standings on the field so well described by the statistics here.

[Brett · Rating 2 out of 5]

I loved the baseball prospectus book from the year before, plus the Cardinals are on the cover (2006 World Series Champs!), so I had high expectations. But I found this only so-so. It seemed to be an attempt by the Baseball Prospectus people to show that they have a sentimental side for the game as well. (Baseball prospectus is a group that uses regression analysis to analyze baseball in some new ways, generally called sabermetrics. They will develop new stats and regress data to find new ways to value the contributions of a baseball player occasionally busting long-held beliefs about the game. And they are often accused of trying to reduce the game to just stats, disregarding the human elements and the beauty of the game itself.)

This book was splattered with some of the type of stats and regressions you would expect, but it was more focused on the stories of some of the memorable (nostaglic/exciting) penant races of the past hundred years. It wasn't entirely stat driven but tried to be more narrative and would then interrupt for a little stat shot. This basically just lead to the book not having much of an identity if you ask me. I'd prefer one of the other. And if I'm going to read a baseball narrative, I'd probably stick to someone that writes narratives more frequently than academic type papers. I do however, normally enjoy Baseball Prospectus stuff very much and would recommend the other book by them on my shelf. I think it is called Baseball between the Numbers.

[Patrick Brown · Rating 3 out of 5]

Not a ton of ground-breaking analysis here (and if I have to sit through one more explanation of Davenport translations, I swear to God), but the writing is very nice, and each pennant race makes for a great little short story.

"Years later, [Dressen] told Red Barber that the only thing he would have done differently would have been to put Campanella in to catch despite his injury, "because he would have gotten Newcombe through"--who knows, perhaps with a tissue transplant."

"The Satchel Paige...who was so carefree and confident that he was known to wave his defense off the field and retire the batters without the aid of fielders."

"Revered by Zimmer as a gamer, Hobson played the field despite bone chips that locked up his elbow when he threw and--cringe!--had to be rearranged after each play. He made 43 errors, was 21 runs below average, and fielded .899, becoming the first regular to break the .900 barrier since 1916, when gloves were little more than padded mittens."

[Josh · Rating 4 out of 5]

A very interesting collection of essays on the best pennant races in baseball history. They do a very good job of explaining and justifying their criteria and setting up a very interesting book. The Baker's Dozen they choose to examine in detail get excellent treatments from a variety of gifted writers from Baseball Prospectus, many of whom are only grown greater in their reach and influence (and in the case of Nate Silver far beyond the game).

For some folks this might end up being a little too stat & strategy heavy, but overall there's a good mix of facts and stories, and while there might be some heavier statistical analysis than many books of this ilk, they certainly don't ignore the stories and personalities behind the clubs involved. It also reads very well in chunks, and breaking it up helps the math go down a little easier.

Very good stuff, an essential for the serious baseball fan and intriguing to even a casual fan.

[Darrenglass · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book has the high quality of writing and excellent combination of exposition and stats-geekiness that we have come to expect from the crew at Baseball Prospectus. But I just can't get past the fact that they omitted the "Last Great Pennant Race" -- 1993's contest between the Giants and the Braves.

[Michael · Rating 4 out of 5]

somewhat disappointing

[Mike · Rating 2 out of 5]

Much less interesting than I was hoping. Took me about 18 months to finally finish, which is an obvious sign that it wasn't that gripping

[Dave · Rating 2 out of 5]

Tedious and unclear and hard to read. I mostly skipped around and read the Nate Silver pieces and the chapters about pennant races that I remember (plus the 1951 NL race).