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A Macat Analysis of Tversky's Judgment Under Uncertainty
Published in 1974 in the journal Science, the article Judgment Under Uncertainty had a profound impact across the social sciences. Two relatively young Israeli psychologists were challenging the leading ideas about human thought. For decades, social scientists had used a mythical figure to describe how humans make homo economicus. Homo economicus was logical and conscientious. To make a decision, he would evaluate all the options open to him, before choosing the course of action calculated to be to his best advantage.
While several thinkers had pointed out that this character wasn't representative of real human behavior, no one had come up with a better model to explain how humans make decisions. Then along came Tversky and Kahneman. In Judgment Under Uncertainty, they explained how the brain processes information at a subconscious level, profoundly affecting our decision-making without us even being aware of it. Their findings transformed the way we think about decision-making today.
While several thinkers had pointed out that this character wasn't representative of real human behavior, no one had come up with a better model to explain how humans make decisions. Then along came Tversky and Kahneman. In Judgment Under Uncertainty, they explained how the brain processes information at a subconscious level, profoundly affecting our decision-making without us even being aware of it. Their findings transformed the way we think about decision-making today.
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Published July 28, 2016
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