Drawing on more than sixty on-the-record interviews with all the major players, Triumph and Demise is full of remarkable disclosures. It is the inside account of the hopes, achievements and bitter failures of the Labor Government from 2007 to 2013. Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard came together to defeat John Howard, formed a brilliant partnership and raised the hopes of the nation. Yet they fell into tension and then hostility under the pressures of politics and policy.
Veteran journalist Paul Kelly probes the dynamics of the Rudd–Gillard partnership and dissects what tore them apart. He tells the full story of Julia Gillard’s tragedy as our first female prime minister - her character, Rudd’s destabilisation, the carbon tax saga and how Gillard was finally pulled down on the eve of the 2013 election.
Kelly documents the most misunderstood event in these years - the rise of Tony Abbott and the reason for his success. It was Abbott’s performance that denied Rudd and Gillard the chance to recover. Labor misjudged Abbott and paid the price.
Kelly writes with a keen eye and fearless determination. His central theme is that Australian politics has entered a crisis of the system that, unless corrected, will diminish the lives of all Australians.
Australian political journalist who is currently editor-at-large at The Australian and was previously its editor-in-chief. He has written numerous books on Australian politics and political history.
Could have done without the author's personal opinions being shown through the running commentary. Overall, a very comprehensive retelling of the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd government and the political landscape both before and after this reign.
Kelly's book is not a patch on his classic The End of Certainty, but he does recognise an unresolved and worsening crisis of Australian politics as underlying the problems of the political class. His insights into the internal political logic of the Coalition, and how that led to the improbable elevation of Tony Abbott as leader, are very revealing and put the issue of climate change in a more understandable context (a political one, rather than something to do with policy).
The ALP's problems are less well delineated although he doesn't fall into the pro-Gillard narrative that the 2010 leadership coup was unavoidable. He doesn't grasp how Rudd's ability to position himself as above the union-ALP nexus was such a plus, and he cannot really explain why the machine took back its party. He probably misses just how effective an internal operator Gillard was, and just how much this was a negative for the party in public political terms.
Finally, the ordering of the narrative betrays Kelly's inability to get his head around the insider-outsider dynamic that gave Rudd three years of historically high popularity despite his alleged internal dysfunction, and which killed Gillard. So he gives way too much store to asylum seekers, stimulus spending, the mining tax and "pink batts" being issues that independently shifted opinion against Rudd, and thereby downplays the centrality of climate change as an agenda that Rudd used against the "old politics", and therefore how when he was pushed to drop it he had few other cards left to play.
You need to tolerate Kelly's own ideological preferences to get the most out of the book, but he (as usual) has gained rare access to the main players and so for anyone trying to understand the rolling crises of the last few years this is a better place to start than many of the self-serving memoirs doing the rounds.
i really expected better from this book. kelly has a hell of a reputation as one of australia's best political writers so i was hoping for something fantastic, instead we have this.
this is two books almost seamlessly welded together. the first is a documentary history which discusses the events of the rudd/gillard years with relevant context, supplemented by exhaustive interviews with the relevant people a la anthony seldon. this book is fantastic, takes up about 3/5ths of the book, and is a 5/5 star book. the writing is serviceable if rarely outright good, but in political history you are rarely well served by having the writing take centre stage.
regrettably there is another book here and it is a tedious, poorly argued polemic about how everyone who sees the world differently to paul kelly is an idiot. kelly can't help but force his ideological beliefs into the book constantly, and will often drag the book to a halt so that he can outline an alternate path that the prime minister should have taken but didn't, invented entirely by paul kelly and completely ignorant of the political realities of the situation. an example:
labor decides to refuse a recommendation that they stop protecting the australian book industry through protectionist legislation. they want to keep the (heavily unionised) australian publishing industry protected because... well, that's what labor historically does. it is hardly surprising that the labor party would want to keep a unionised industry protected, but kelly seems genuinely baffled that they would do so. he says "Rudd as prime minister could have turned this issue if he had had the inclination. That meant defying the jungle drum of the culture tribe and much of the Left in caucus; Rudd was not such a leader."
sorry, what the fuck do you mean? rudd didn't go against the idea because he was pro the idea. what you are suggesting is that he go against his own beliefs and party specifically to create an outcome that he didn't want so that.... what? so that paul kelly thinks that kevin rudd is cool? beyond this, it's completely incoherent with a core theme of the book, that rudd was willing to go against labor orthodoxy and the unions and thats part of why he was so easily removed. it's like kelly dislikes rudd so much that he can't let anything pass without taking potshots at him, regardless of how idiotic it might turn out
this mindset infects otherwise good parts of the book. kim carr and rudd wanted to keep the domestic car market going but because it is not strictly profitable to do so, this is seen as inestimable folly. of course looking back in 2026 it doesn't seem like maintaining sovereign production of something as critical as car manufacturing is a bad idea, let alone the lost institutional knowledge and supply chains. but of course, if a simple reduction to a profit/loss calculation ends with a negative number, there are no other facets to consider and it can be safely jettisoned. surely our relationship with america will never change!
this also comes through in kelly's genuine incomprehension of social justice as a political force. kelly reduces it to its simplest calculation - will this gain or lose votes? is this a sufficient constituency to make it viable? of course, people involved in social justice are not usually doing so in such a mindset and as such it makes them entirely alien to kelly, who seems utterly baffled that people may be behaving in a way that doesn't result in a chart going further up and to the right. it's very obvious that kelly has deeply internalised a "politics as sport" mindset
this mindset is what really sinks the political analysis. gillard was - uniquely in all australian political history - destroyed by the media, with rudd and abbott masterfully using their connections to undercut her. he mentions several times that every time that her government got any momentum it would be undone by leaks or media attacks, but it is never once even considered that the media is in any way responsible for this outcome. the media as a whole is NEVER questioned in its right to retail intentionally harmful or misleading things from politicians for personal gain, and he explicitly mocks the idea that the media needs a regulator outside of the free market
it's not hard to see why he can't criticise them; it would immediately show him as a being as active a participant as everyone else. there's an utterly woeful section in the end where he expounds his views about how reform is now impossible in the australian political context and the key reason is that everyone is too scared of negative coverage to do so. who provides that coverage? is its negative impact outweighing its positive impact? are there changes that could be made? which actors are platforming the unreasonable negative coverage? none of these questions are asked because kelly's view intentionally reduces the entire sphere of meaningful political actions to the economy, which has nice easy answers for governments (free markets and whatever paul kelly thinks)
the cumulative effect is like hearing a serial arsonist complaining about all the soot on the walls and the holes in the roof. "why is everyone partisan and negative" he asks while editing a negative and partisan newspaper, "why is rudd still so relevant" he cries while retailing rudd's leaks against gillard on background. it would almost be comic if it wasn't being delivered in a strident, arrogant, self-righteous tone by one of the primary causes of australia's political discourse being a toxic swamp.
there are a few moments of levity, mostly caused by kelly's incorrect political guesses and weird political biases. according to kelly in 2014
- clive palmer is going to be a real problem - abbott is going to be in for ~2 terms - wayne swan is very silly for saying the right have been americanised - bhp billiton has a standing in australia similar to qantas (what the fuck?)
it's a bit churlish to make fun of guesses like this (and i've certainly made enough that turned out to be wrong) but to be honest, i am a churl and it's one of the few highlights of reading this thing.
the writing in the book is often quite bad, with multiple odd sentence fragments or sentences which simply don't make sense. kelly is a newspaper writer and it shows, he constantly falls back on the same few cliches. there's never an example of something, it's always "witness X". he must use this specific formulation 20 times in the book, it becomes tiresome quickly. he also loves to start a sentence with "Yet", sometimes doing it several times in the same paragraph. generally it feels like the book was rushed out to meet a market interested in the end of the rudd/gillard years and could have used some substantial editing
overall it's a hard book to really recommend. while it does have a lot of good reporting and insight, these parts are swaddled in an often intolerably smug book that can't see that it's contributing to a problem the author is directly responsible for causing. there are a lot of other good sources on the rudd/gillard years (killing season and the book of the same name), i would recommend almost any of them over this one.
chronicle of australia's federal government(s) during the rudd-gillard-rudd years, 2007-13. a competent but incomplete political history of the period (omits gillard's office trying to stage a race riot on australia day). kelly interviews many of the important figures involved in government, civil service, & advocacy groups. those in government during the period are candid but obtuse, determined to learn nothing from the experience. author's judgments are sound but too charitable. this was the worst australian government in a generation: wantonly wasteful, sleazy, captive to interest groups, officious & hectoring, shabby, incompetent, preening, totalizing, shallow, & pre-occupied with 'spin' & 'media management' to a degree unseen before. it bore no relation to the previous hawke-keating labour governments. the parliament of 2010-2013 was the most sordid, venal, & biddable legislative body in living memory. it was a dreadful business.
this book may have received 4 stars but for kelly's limited facility with language which, though serviceable, never rises to elegance. those familiar with australian journalism would expect as much. punctuation is occasionally crazy, employing periods for semi-colons to distinguish clauses.
"triumph & demise" never aspires to be anything more than 'long journalism'. owing to the confidences kelly has purchased this book will probably become the standard account of the period.
kelly's grand remonstrance (the final & finest chapter of the book) indicts australia as a land of lotos-eaters, carelessly living beyond its means; its governing class polarised, pre-occupied with polls, & perfectly indifferent to the national interest.
I'm deeply torn by this book. It's actually somewhat even-handed as journalism (excepting the author's rather disturbing delusion that The Australian is an objective newspaper), although mostly tossed off as afterthoughts - presumably because more than a token effort at fairness would get in the way of criticising the ALP.
Because make no mistake, that's what this book is about. It's about everything that the Rudd and Gillard governments did wrong, albeit from a fairly right wing perspective. (There's no mention, for example, of the Gillard government's plan to censor the internet, which was a major negative for them on the leftist side of politics.) And poor old Brendan Nelson barely rates a cameo in the book, despite having been one of the Leaders of the Opposition in that era. (Admittedly, he was pretty irrelevant even when he was in the role, but still.) It does give them some credit where credit is due, but the relentless application of 20/20 hindsight gets wearing pretty early on.
Unless you're a serious political history junkie, I would advise skipping to the last chapter, which contains Kelly's thoughts about what's wrong with the political and media culture in this country, and is actually well-thought out and reasonably non-partisan (albeit blissfully unencumbered by an awareness of the irony of a member of the media excoriating the media, or a political insider complaining about insider culture).
This quite large book took me ages to read because I did so alongside my wife, and we've had a crazy last few months, with the perfect culmination being that we should now finish it during isolation after finally succumbing to Covid-19. It seems to have hit me much harder than it hit her, but maybe I'm just more of a baby when it comes to getting sick. But I digress ...
This is an excellent book, researched, structured and written impeccably by Paul Kelly, who is evidently one of Australia's better political writers (up there with Greg Sheridan, another favourite of mine). My wife and I have read many books about the Australian political scene, and while there have been some other great ones (the Quarterly Essays are usually excellent), this was hands-down the best that I have read so far. Even when it seemed I would usually tune out - I am not, to put it mildly, a sucker for fiscal policy, economics or polling data - Kelly somehow managed to make his book absolutely readable almost the whole way through. The occasional, well-placed spot of wry humour didn't go amiss either.
On the whole, he seems to be something of a right-leaning centrist in my view. Ninety-percent of this book - as suggested by the subtitle, The Broken Promise of a Labor Generation - is holding the fairly disastrous Rudd-Gillard-Rudd party to account, and so its easy to come away feeling like he is way too harsh on those two leaders, all while glossing over the blundering onion-muncher that was Tony Abbott when he finally took the mantle and had to actually do something rather than just engage in negative oppositional politics (which is what the conservatives are usually best at).
But on the whole I think Kelly is quite balanced, and he certainly gives more credit where credit is due than I believe a leftist writer would ever concede towards the Right. And I also think his more opinionated approach to covering this era of Australia's governance helped keep the content from becoming too dry.
I will say that while I still respect Kevin Rudd quiet a lot, this book did lessen my opinion of him somewhat. He's a very smart and clever man, but one hell of a conniving, deceitful little shit as well. Julia was treated despicably by a large portion of the country, and as much as I am on the fence with movements like #MeToo, I am certain the populist backlash against her would not have gained the ground it did back then were it to have happened now. Fortunately, her famous misogyny speech has aged very well, and her legacy is finally being reappraised.
Because I'm not a generally a hateful person and try not to be swayed by partisan politics or whatever the mainstream media tells me at the time, I am one of the few who actually confesses to have liked Scott Morrison as I think he and the Coalition did exceptionally well in comparison to most other countries in seeing us through the Pandemic. I also like John Howard. But if we were talking personalities and political integrity (the whole carbon tax issue was never the broken promise the media made it out to be but just a blunder in words), I'd have to say that Julia Gillard is the one I liked the most thus far in my lifetime.
Paul Kelly’s account of the 2007-2013 Labour government is fascinating, especially 10+ years after it left office and Australia has ran through a 9 year coalition government and is currently being administered by another Labor government. I say fascinating because frankly the more time passes, the better the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd government looks by comparison to what succeeded it, both with regards to the 2013-2022 coalition government and the Albanese Labor government.
Speaking personally my politics would be to the left of the Australian Labor party(and I can’t know for certain but I’d suspect Paul Kelly’s politics would be slightly to the right of the Labor party though for the most part to his credit, Kelly manages to keep this historical account free from bias aside from the occasional slip or discrepancy, notably that Kelly seems to think Labor delivering for unions is bad in and of itself what with his repeated references to Labor being too effective for unions being regularly raised as a negative, plus he largely describes any collaboration between Labor and the greens as bad, yet he doesn’t seem to assign the same critique to Tony Abbotts denialism of the realities of climate change, something even more shocking given the quasi permanent array of natural disasters which have ravaged Australia both during and since the 2007-2013 Labor government) but reading this account and knowing what comes after, whilst it wasn’t whatsoever a perfect government, the 2007-2013 had a range of achievements which it can take pride in.
The establishment of the NDIS, shepherding the country effectively through the GFC, advancing the the cause of equality through having Australias first female prime minister and making a small but important step towards reconciliation with the Aboriginal Australians through Rudds famous apology.
The main 3 protagonists Rudd, Gillaird and Abbot all have their own qualities and I would argue their successors both liberal and Labor have been inferior. Having said that they are all also obviously deeply, fatally flawed people who’s flaws precipitate the collapse of the Labor government in record time and (though Kelly didn’t realise at the time of writing) the incredibly rapid disintegration of the Abbott government administration.
However these are the ingredients that make for a compelling, Shakespearean account of political history and in the end, with the achievements they realised during their 6 years, the 2007-2013 Labor government can take a degree of pride in having not simply occupied the space but to have made some significant reforms and steps forward for the country they represented even though they simultaneously destroyed themselves and thwarted their own potential. A compelling read.
Gave way a quarter if the way into it. Felt like writer will repeat and repeat and repeat himself. The bits I read were interesting but the constant repetition (plus the writer really seems like a centre-right dude and it bleeds into his work). If I hadn't had so much books I'd like to read and this being a 55% interesting book at best, I'd read all of it.
Once again a gem of political writing, I hope he didn’t stop writing about the fascinating, thrilling world of Australian politics because there are still a lot of gems to excavate. Come on Paul back to your desk !!
(I received a free copy of this book from Net Galley in exchange for an honest review.)
Drawing on more than sixty on-the-record interviews with all the major players, Triumph and Demise is full of remarkable disclosures. It is the inside account of the hopes, achievements and bitter failures of the Labor Government from 2007 to 2013. Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard came together to defeat John Howard, formed a brilliant partnership and raised the hopes of the nation. Yet they fell into tension and then hostility under the pressures of politics and policy. Veteran journalist Paul Kelly probes the dynamics of the Rudd–Gillard partnership and dissects what tore them apart. He tells the full story of Julia Gillard's tragedy as our first female prime minister—her character, Rudd's destabilisation, the carbon tax saga and how Gillard was finally pulled down on the eve of the 2013 election. Kelly documents the most misunderstood event in these years—the rise of Tony Abbott and the reason for his success. It was Abbott's performance that denied Rudd and Gillard the chance to recover. Labor misjudged Abbott and paid the price. Kelly writes with a keen eye and fearless determination. His central theme is that Australian politics has entered a crisis of the system that, unless corrected, will diminish the lives of all Australians.
This book is an interesting history of the Rudd/Gillard government in Australia between 2007-2013. The author goes to some great lengths to get access to some of the major players of the time and their insights are extremely valuable in decoding this story. The motivations of the caucus to try and topple Rudd - which were chaotic, to say the least - to the ensuing chaos that was the Gillard government. It is hard to believe that all this went down only a few years ago.
However, there seems to be missing a balanced view of the period - and that is sad as I would have favoured this book more if that had been the case. I can turn on the TV and see biased reporting every day of the week - I don't want it in my books (naive, I know!!)
This book does leave us with some understanding of what has happened over the last decade or so - and what challenges lies ahead of our country in the near future.
Overall, a decent history of a very troubling time in our political history.
Paul Kelly manages a reasonably even handed account of the chaos and the commitment at the heart of the previous government. I thought the narrative was repetitive and there was sometimes a jump back and forth in the sequence of events. But in the end these faults somehow seemed to emphasise the craziness of the times being described. I had forgotten how very bizarre things were less than two years ago,the non challenge, Bob Carr's resurrection, Gillard's revival of the abortion debate, Rudd's pledges, the second removal of a PM, Rudd's late career conversion to off shore processing and the ban on boat arrivals ever gaining access to Australia. This last innovation had somehow migrated in my thinking to being one of Tony Abbott's ideas, ah memory! For all the outrage over the unfairness of the recent budget and the spluttering bile directed at Tony Abbott by Guardian readers, things are calmer now, a bit boring even...oh wait! Jacqui Lambie!
Kelly's book succeeds in putting the complex events of 2007 to 2013 into a chronology, while his access to key figures of the period is a major strength. His account is let down by occasional resort to reductive binary representations of issues and some argumentative overreach.