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Coming Convergence: Surprising Ways Diverse Technologies Interact to Shape Our World and Change the Future
Imagine direct communication links between the human brain and machines, or tailored materials capable of adapting by themselves to changing environmental conditions, or computer chips and environmental sensors embedded into everyday clothing, or medical technologies that eliminate currently untreatable conditions such as blindness and paralysis. Now imagine all of these developments occurring at the same time. Far-fetched?
Not So. These are actually the reasonable predictions of scientists attempting to forecast a few decades into the future based on the rapid pace of innovation.
Author Stanley Schmidt – a physicist, a writer, and the editor of Analog: Science Fiction and Fact – explores these and many more amazing yet probable scenarios in this fascinating guide to the near future. He shows how past convergences have led to today’s world, then considers tomorrow’s main currents in biotechnology, cognitive science, information technology, and nanotechnology. Looking even further downstream he foresees both exciting and potentially dangerous developments:
Longer, healthier lives
Cheap, generally available food, energy, and technology
Reduced pollution and environmental stress
Economic disruption during transitional periods
Excessive power in too few hands
Increased vulnerability from overdependence on technology.
Schmidt notes that even a routine technology such as the CAT scan is the result of three wholly separate innovations started many decades ago which recently converged: the X-ray, the computer, and advances in medicine. On a more ominous note, he also observes that the 9/11 terrorist attack on the World Trade Center was made possible by the malicious convergence of two separate trends in modern engineering and technology: the concentration of people in high rises within cities and the success of the passenger airline industry.
The message is clear: the choices we make now will converge to create a near and distant future that will be almost unbelievably wonderful or unimaginably catastrophic, or both. This knowledgeable, fascinating glimpse into the future is a must read for everyone interested in technology, upcoming innovations in business, science fiction, and the future.
Not So. These are actually the reasonable predictions of scientists attempting to forecast a few decades into the future based on the rapid pace of innovation.
Author Stanley Schmidt – a physicist, a writer, and the editor of Analog: Science Fiction and Fact – explores these and many more amazing yet probable scenarios in this fascinating guide to the near future. He shows how past convergences have led to today’s world, then considers tomorrow’s main currents in biotechnology, cognitive science, information technology, and nanotechnology. Looking even further downstream he foresees both exciting and potentially dangerous developments:
Longer, healthier lives
Cheap, generally available food, energy, and technology
Reduced pollution and environmental stress
Economic disruption during transitional periods
Excessive power in too few hands
Increased vulnerability from overdependence on technology.
Schmidt notes that even a routine technology such as the CAT scan is the result of three wholly separate innovations started many decades ago which recently converged: the X-ray, the computer, and advances in medicine. On a more ominous note, he also observes that the 9/11 terrorist attack on the World Trade Center was made possible by the malicious convergence of two separate trends in modern engineering and technology: the concentration of people in high rises within cities and the success of the passenger airline industry.
The message is clear: the choices we make now will converge to create a near and distant future that will be almost unbelievably wonderful or unimaginably catastrophic, or both. This knowledgeable, fascinating glimpse into the future is a must read for everyone interested in technology, upcoming innovations in business, science fiction, and the future.
- GenresNonfiction
270 pages, Hardcover
First published April 1, 2008
19 people want to read
About the author
Stanley Schmidt
505 books7 followersStanley Schmidt is an American science fiction author. Between 1978 and 2012 he served as editor of
Analog Science Fiction and Fact
magazine.
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Displaying 1 - 7 of 7 reviews
July 16, 2011
Wide-ranging and thought-provoking. The title sounds kind of new-age-ish, but the content is actually firmly grounded in current science and engineering: the term convergence, as used here, refers to the synergistic impacts that become possible with the combination of advances in two or more kinds of technology - a positive example would be medical advances like PET, MRI, fMRI, and other imaging systems combining different types of electromagnetic energy with powerful computers; a stark negative example noted by the author is the combination of jet airliner technology with skyscraper engineering and architecture that made the 9/11 atrocity possible.
I give this book four stars instead of five only because the author, in my opinion, glosses over the problems of resource depletion too casually by assuming we can use nanotechnology to shift our economy, culture, and lifestyle to one in which we recycle nearly everything - he notes that we don't yet have the technology to do so, but seems to treat its near-future availability as almost a given, and although he mentions the economic impact of the huge numbers of jobs and whole professions that would be both eliminated and created, he also skims over that huge challenge.
Beyond that, he doesn't give nearly enough attention to the problems of climate change and aging, deteriorating infrastructure that are already starting to drag the developed world's standard of living downward; and, finally, he mentions but doesn't seriously address the problem of the abuse of information technology by authoritarian governments, not to mention rogue businesses and criminals, to victimize people.
Still, this is well worth reading, and I wish more people would educate themselves on these matters and keep them in mind when voting and making major life decisions.
I give this book four stars instead of five only because the author, in my opinion, glosses over the problems of resource depletion too casually by assuming we can use nanotechnology to shift our economy, culture, and lifestyle to one in which we recycle nearly everything - he notes that we don't yet have the technology to do so, but seems to treat its near-future availability as almost a given, and although he mentions the economic impact of the huge numbers of jobs and whole professions that would be both eliminated and created, he also skims over that huge challenge.
Beyond that, he doesn't give nearly enough attention to the problems of climate change and aging, deteriorating infrastructure that are already starting to drag the developed world's standard of living downward; and, finally, he mentions but doesn't seriously address the problem of the abuse of information technology by authoritarian governments, not to mention rogue businesses and criminals, to victimize people.
Still, this is well worth reading, and I wish more people would educate themselves on these matters and keep them in mind when voting and making major life decisions.
June 26, 2008
Book Review
The Marriage of Inventions
The Coming Convergence: The Surprising Ways Diverse Technologies Interact to Shape Our World and Change the Future by Stanley Schmidt. Prometheus Books. 2008. 336 pages. $27.95
It is eighteenth-century France; Joseph Marie-Jacquard has just invented a mechanical loom that uses punch cards to weave cloth in a set pattern, a device that—when eventually combined with electronics—will lead to the invention of the PC. Two hundred fifty years later, the tech bubble pops, sending the prices of overhyped computer and Internet companies tumbling.
In 1896, Orville Wright tests the hypothesis that a machine heavier than air can fly, so long as the wings are shaped a certain way and there is sufficient propulsion. The experiment is a success. About 100 years later, thanks to innovations in building construction as well as flight technology, terrorists steer hijacked aircraft into the World Trade Center and U.S. Pentagon, killing thousands in a matter of minutes and setting off a series of events affecting many millions more for years to come.
Jacquard and Wright never imagined their inventions would cause such disasters. They could not have anticipated how other inventions or innovations would merge with their own creations to produce new technologies, opportunities, and perils. In The Coming Convergence, physicist, science-fiction writer, and Analog editor Stanley Schmidt argues that, as the pace of technological discovery accelerates, the world will witness more rapid and startling convergences over the next 50 years.
Schmidt begins by outlining key technological comminglings that have occurred throughout history, and their mixed results. The invention of the microphone made possible the amplification of “quiet” instruments like the guitar, leading eventually to the electric guitar and to rock and roll. The same technology, combined with the piano, produced the synthesizer and eighties New Wave—a bold step forward or an unfortunate one, depending on your affinity for that particular genre.
The technology of X-ray diffraction, which can be used to analyze the molecular nature of an object being X-rayed, led to the science of genetics and the mapping of the human genome. In the years ahead, genetic science will propel biotechnology to ever higher plateaus, helping researchers find cures for diabetes and even certain types of cancer. But genetics is also allowing millions of parents practicing in vitro fertilization to select the sex of their offspring and even screen for conditions like autism, fulfilling, in part, Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World scenario.
What discoveries and innovations will create the convergences of the coming decades? In 2002, the National Science Foundation published Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance, a report that identified key technologies likely to shape the future; chief among them were nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology, and cognitive science.
“The report,” says Schmidt, “describes a ‘golden age’ and a ‘renaissance’ but will such a future really be that, or an unprecedented kind of horror—or something in between, with elements of both?... Powerful technologies can be used for powerful benefits or great harm.”
The degree of benefit or harm caused by these new convergences will depend greatly on how nanotechnology advances in the coming years, says Schmidt, stating, “That area, perhaps more than any other, holds the potential to interact so strongly with all others as to produce changes far beyond anything else in human history.”
He forecasts that, while biotechnology, information technology, and artificial intelligence will all advance in the next few decades, the impact of advanced nanotechnology on all three fields could radically transform human existence. Nanomedicine could bring forth in situ replacement organs. Nano-engineered artificial red blood cells (respirocytes) could hold oxygen longer than their organic counterparts, allowing people to hold their breath under water for hours on end. Space vehicles constructed from carbon-walled nanotubes would be both more durable and lighter than those made from titanium, allowing such craft to ferry humans ever deeper into space.
Nano-designed computer processors might show up in cybernetic implants (allowing for higher brain functioning), or in high-performance computers, and eventually massive parallel processing. Nanofactories could reconfigure bulk raw materials at the molecular level, transforming trash into clothes, materials, or even food.
None of these forecasts will be especially new to anyone who has read the work of K. Eric Drexler, Ray Kurzweil, or J. Storrs Hall, whose book Nanofuture (excerpted in the September-October 2005 issue of
THE FUTURIST) Schmidt draws from heavily. But for the uninitiated, Schmidt provides a good summary of the most popular forecasts of the day. Where Schmidt’s book stands out is in the strength of his historical narrative. In his careful retracing of the connections and convergences of the past, he reminds us that innovation— whether manifest in a better machine or a better system—isn’t a static process. It’s a chaotic back and forth between inventors, their creations, and society, a process very much beyond any one person’s control.
—Patrick Tucker
Originally published THE FUTURIST July-August 2008
The Marriage of Inventions
The Coming Convergence: The Surprising Ways Diverse Technologies Interact to Shape Our World and Change the Future by Stanley Schmidt. Prometheus Books. 2008. 336 pages. $27.95
It is eighteenth-century France; Joseph Marie-Jacquard has just invented a mechanical loom that uses punch cards to weave cloth in a set pattern, a device that—when eventually combined with electronics—will lead to the invention of the PC. Two hundred fifty years later, the tech bubble pops, sending the prices of overhyped computer and Internet companies tumbling.
In 1896, Orville Wright tests the hypothesis that a machine heavier than air can fly, so long as the wings are shaped a certain way and there is sufficient propulsion. The experiment is a success. About 100 years later, thanks to innovations in building construction as well as flight technology, terrorists steer hijacked aircraft into the World Trade Center and U.S. Pentagon, killing thousands in a matter of minutes and setting off a series of events affecting many millions more for years to come.
Jacquard and Wright never imagined their inventions would cause such disasters. They could not have anticipated how other inventions or innovations would merge with their own creations to produce new technologies, opportunities, and perils. In The Coming Convergence, physicist, science-fiction writer, and Analog editor Stanley Schmidt argues that, as the pace of technological discovery accelerates, the world will witness more rapid and startling convergences over the next 50 years.
Schmidt begins by outlining key technological comminglings that have occurred throughout history, and their mixed results. The invention of the microphone made possible the amplification of “quiet” instruments like the guitar, leading eventually to the electric guitar and to rock and roll. The same technology, combined with the piano, produced the synthesizer and eighties New Wave—a bold step forward or an unfortunate one, depending on your affinity for that particular genre.
The technology of X-ray diffraction, which can be used to analyze the molecular nature of an object being X-rayed, led to the science of genetics and the mapping of the human genome. In the years ahead, genetic science will propel biotechnology to ever higher plateaus, helping researchers find cures for diabetes and even certain types of cancer. But genetics is also allowing millions of parents practicing in vitro fertilization to select the sex of their offspring and even screen for conditions like autism, fulfilling, in part, Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World scenario.
What discoveries and innovations will create the convergences of the coming decades? In 2002, the National Science Foundation published Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance, a report that identified key technologies likely to shape the future; chief among them were nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology, and cognitive science.
“The report,” says Schmidt, “describes a ‘golden age’ and a ‘renaissance’ but will such a future really be that, or an unprecedented kind of horror—or something in between, with elements of both?... Powerful technologies can be used for powerful benefits or great harm.”
The degree of benefit or harm caused by these new convergences will depend greatly on how nanotechnology advances in the coming years, says Schmidt, stating, “That area, perhaps more than any other, holds the potential to interact so strongly with all others as to produce changes far beyond anything else in human history.”
He forecasts that, while biotechnology, information technology, and artificial intelligence will all advance in the next few decades, the impact of advanced nanotechnology on all three fields could radically transform human existence. Nanomedicine could bring forth in situ replacement organs. Nano-engineered artificial red blood cells (respirocytes) could hold oxygen longer than their organic counterparts, allowing people to hold their breath under water for hours on end. Space vehicles constructed from carbon-walled nanotubes would be both more durable and lighter than those made from titanium, allowing such craft to ferry humans ever deeper into space.
Nano-designed computer processors might show up in cybernetic implants (allowing for higher brain functioning), or in high-performance computers, and eventually massive parallel processing. Nanofactories could reconfigure bulk raw materials at the molecular level, transforming trash into clothes, materials, or even food.
None of these forecasts will be especially new to anyone who has read the work of K. Eric Drexler, Ray Kurzweil, or J. Storrs Hall, whose book Nanofuture (excerpted in the September-October 2005 issue of
THE FUTURIST) Schmidt draws from heavily. But for the uninitiated, Schmidt provides a good summary of the most popular forecasts of the day. Where Schmidt’s book stands out is in the strength of his historical narrative. In his careful retracing of the connections and convergences of the past, he reminds us that innovation— whether manifest in a better machine or a better system—isn’t a static process. It’s a chaotic back and forth between inventors, their creations, and society, a process very much beyond any one person’s control.
—Patrick Tucker
Originally published THE FUTURIST July-August 2008
July 5, 2013
This is a non-fiction book ultimately theorizing about a singularity, where the graph of technological change goes vertical, but it does so by talking about how technology has evolved in the past and may in the future.
I found the central thesis of the book the most interesting thing about it: that big technological changes don't usually come about by advances in a single field, but instead by advances in multiple fields converging together and creating something that couldn't have been foreseen.
I think that's a good point and suggests why futurist prediction is so hard.
I was less enthralled by his look at things that might be just around the corner, like nanotechnology, telepresence, true AI, and much more. But, I think that's because I've heard it all before. Ultimately, I think Schmidt is trying to get the message out to people who haven't thought about what the future might very quickly bring.
I found the central thesis of the book the most interesting thing about it: that big technological changes don't usually come about by advances in a single field, but instead by advances in multiple fields converging together and creating something that couldn't have been foreseen.
I think that's a good point and suggests why futurist prediction is so hard.
I was less enthralled by his look at things that might be just around the corner, like nanotechnology, telepresence, true AI, and much more. But, I think that's because I've heard it all before. Ultimately, I think Schmidt is trying to get the message out to people who haven't thought about what the future might very quickly bring.
March 25, 2015
Solid, thought-provoking summary of the most popular speculations regarding the coming convergence of various technologies, particularly the ways in which nanotechnology might change our lives. I thought the speculative elements would be my favorite parts of the book, but I was wrong: it was in fact Stanley Schmidt's well-researched historical accounts of how computing and other technologies developed that I found most engrossing.
September 10, 2016
Thoughtful analysis. A little dated but still well worth reading. It's heavy on the technology side and light on the social side. What's conspicuously omitted is the convergence between the two. By contrast lost of convergence of technologies is covered.
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April 15, 2010nonfiction,philosophy,technology
October 16, 2011
Very introductory level reading for those not familiar with future concepts.
Displaying 1 - 7 of 7 reviews