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The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice
Freakonomics
for criminal justice
, The Science of Second Chances
presents a groundbreaking approach to criminal justice reform, revealing how small-scale interventions can reduce people’s chances of reoffending and break the incarceration cycle.
When criminal justice expert Jennifer Doleac thinks about reform, she’s not just hopeful, she’s optimistic that second chances are possible—for the justice-involved population and the system as a whole. In The Science of Second Chances, she reveals her powerful approach to reducing crime and incarceration. Drawing on cutting-edge economic research and real-world experiments, the book presents a blueprint for reform that runs all the way through the system. Doleac shows how economists like herself approach big, complicated problems as if they were scientists in a lab, carefully testing different approaches and following the data to maximize impact. She explains how shifting the incentives people face can produce dramatic changes in the decisions they make, significantly reducing the number of people cycling through the prison system. From DNA databases that increase the likelihood of catching reoffenders to leniency programs for first-time defendants, she reveals a series of surprising interventions that actually work, along with cautionary tales about great ideas that never panned out.
Doleac doesn’t have a “burn it all down” mentality but seeks to empower readers with practical, achievable solutions. She demonstrates that we can have both public safety and a smaller, less intrusive justice system—without waiting for big, structural reforms that might never come. By shifting focus from the enormity of the problem to the power of small, evidence-based changes, she offers a transformative approach to prosecution and punishment. The Science of Second Chances is essential for anyone seeking data-driven strategies to revolutionize the criminal justice system and create the society we want and need.
When criminal justice expert Jennifer Doleac thinks about reform, she’s not just hopeful, she’s optimistic that second chances are possible—for the justice-involved population and the system as a whole. In The Science of Second Chances, she reveals her powerful approach to reducing crime and incarceration. Drawing on cutting-edge economic research and real-world experiments, the book presents a blueprint for reform that runs all the way through the system. Doleac shows how economists like herself approach big, complicated problems as if they were scientists in a lab, carefully testing different approaches and following the data to maximize impact. She explains how shifting the incentives people face can produce dramatic changes in the decisions they make, significantly reducing the number of people cycling through the prison system. From DNA databases that increase the likelihood of catching reoffenders to leniency programs for first-time defendants, she reveals a series of surprising interventions that actually work, along with cautionary tales about great ideas that never panned out.
Doleac doesn’t have a “burn it all down” mentality but seeks to empower readers with practical, achievable solutions. She demonstrates that we can have both public safety and a smaller, less intrusive justice system—without waiting for big, structural reforms that might never come. By shifting focus from the enormity of the problem to the power of small, evidence-based changes, she offers a transformative approach to prosecution and punishment. The Science of Second Chances is essential for anyone seeking data-driven strategies to revolutionize the criminal justice system and create the society we want and need.
304 pages, Hardcover
Published February 24, 2026
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Displaying 1 - 23 of 23 reviews
November 8, 2025
I love me some data! Luckily for me, there is plenty of that in Jennifer Doleac's The Science of Second Chances. No emotions, no arguments, just cold, hard data. My favorite!
Doleac looks at various experiments which have been conducted around the world to improve the criminal justice system. The first question anyone may have is how partisan is it. It's not at all. Doleac even points out repeatedly that she won't ask questions which have value based responses. How long should someone be in jail for it to be considered justice by society? Totally immaterial. Instead, the author may explain an experiment where we look at how more usage of ankle monitoring devices affect recidivism.
What I found most interesting is that while Doleac focuses mostly on experiments with positive effects, there are a slew of examples where you would expect one thing and get another. This is not an anomaly either. As with most data driven science, Doleac explains that the vast majority of theses will fail. It's a feature, not a bug.
This book is best for folks who want to see unambiguous (when the data supports it) and unbiased looks at various criminal justice reforms. There isn't any anecdotes where the author pulls on your heartstrings. This is all about the science. I loved it.
(This book was provided as an advance reader copy by Henry Holt.)
Doleac looks at various experiments which have been conducted around the world to improve the criminal justice system. The first question anyone may have is how partisan is it. It's not at all. Doleac even points out repeatedly that she won't ask questions which have value based responses. How long should someone be in jail for it to be considered justice by society? Totally immaterial. Instead, the author may explain an experiment where we look at how more usage of ankle monitoring devices affect recidivism.
What I found most interesting is that while Doleac focuses mostly on experiments with positive effects, there are a slew of examples where you would expect one thing and get another. This is not an anomaly either. As with most data driven science, Doleac explains that the vast majority of theses will fail. It's a feature, not a bug.
This book is best for folks who want to see unambiguous (when the data supports it) and unbiased looks at various criminal justice reforms. There isn't any anecdotes where the author pulls on your heartstrings. This is all about the science. I loved it.
(This book was provided as an advance reader copy by Henry Holt.)
February 28, 2026
This book is SO GOOD. I hope you like data and analysis because everything here is data driven. I used to be a fan of Van the box, but not only does it not help, it actually makes things worse. But there is good news! She gives you so many actionable ideas that are proven to work and make a difference. Huge fan of this book. Highly recommend to anyone remotely interested in a better criminal justice system. It’s not getting 5 stars because it is pro-capitalism and a bit neo-liberal, but for the times we are in this is a step in the right direction. 4.3 stars
March 16, 2026
Incredibly insightful!
This book challenged some of my own assumptions about what I thought I understood about supporting people who need a second chance. Doleac’s perspective as an economist, and her emphasis on using high-quality research and data to guide policy solutions is especially compelling.
This book challenged some of my own assumptions about what I thought I understood about supporting people who need a second chance. Doleac’s perspective as an economist, and her emphasis on using high-quality research and data to guide policy solutions is especially compelling.
October 10, 2025
I was so excited when I saw that Jennifer Doleac had written this book. I think she's the perfect person for this type of exploration of the data we have on criminal justice interventions. She touches on aspects of criminal justice ranging from supervised release to the impact of pollution exposure on impulsivity and subsequent incarceration.
I think this is critical reading for policymakers at all levels. I'll certainly be calling Erik Bottcher's office and recommending he read this when it comes out. I think policymakers and practitioners should especially pay attention to Doleac's conclusion. Failure isn't unexpected, and it's better to fail fast and know that a program isn't working than to drag out programs that have adverse impacts.
My only critique of the book is that there are parts that get repetitive. She explains the quasi-experimental setup and how it approximates randomness each time she introduces a non-RCT study. This isn't necessarily bad! I believe her audience is one she's trying to train into thinking about evidence. However, I wonder if her intended audience really understands why RCTs are the gold standard. I think this book would benefit from a chapter offering a crash course on casual inference. It could be framed as optional reading and it could even be placed at the back. However, I think a section folks could reference to understand why randomization is the gold standard (and perhaps something that does a quick overview of the intuition of commonly used quasi-experimental methods) could be really useful to practioners and policymakers without much experience thinking about what makes research reliable.
Thank you to NetGalley and the publishers for the ARC.
I think this is critical reading for policymakers at all levels. I'll certainly be calling Erik Bottcher's office and recommending he read this when it comes out. I think policymakers and practitioners should especially pay attention to Doleac's conclusion. Failure isn't unexpected, and it's better to fail fast and know that a program isn't working than to drag out programs that have adverse impacts.
My only critique of the book is that there are parts that get repetitive. She explains the quasi-experimental setup and how it approximates randomness each time she introduces a non-RCT study. This isn't necessarily bad! I believe her audience is one she's trying to train into thinking about evidence. However, I wonder if her intended audience really understands why RCTs are the gold standard. I think this book would benefit from a chapter offering a crash course on casual inference. It could be framed as optional reading and it could even be placed at the back. However, I think a section folks could reference to understand why randomization is the gold standard (and perhaps something that does a quick overview of the intuition of commonly used quasi-experimental methods) could be really useful to practioners and policymakers without much experience thinking about what makes research reliable.
Thank you to NetGalley and the publishers for the ARC.
March 25, 2026
Demonstrating how communities can intervene to prevent criminal behavior, academic researcher Jennifer Doleac’s draws on the criminology and economics literature to show how even small shifts in incentives can produce large behavioral effects. With a keen eye for the latest research and an accessible writing style, Doleac argues that targeted interventions can be just as effective as sweeping structural reforms in enabling second chances for people who become involved in the criminal justice system. Armed with this evidence, Doleac makes the case for policies that foster more productive interactions with the system, reduce recidivism, and support successful reentry after incarceration. As she writes, “Time and again, relatively small interventions and policy changes have had big impacts on people trying to find their way into a better life.”
A vigorous advocate for evidence-based policymaking—including through her podcast Probable Causation—Doleac surveys a wide range of research demonstrating how incentives shape criminal behavior and improve outcomes. She highlights studies showing that adding individuals charged with felonies to DNA databases can reduce future offending, and that “warm-touch handoffs” to mental health services upon release lower rates of rearrest. Research also convincingly shows that targeted tools such as random drug and breathalyzer testing can meaningfully change behavior and improve life outcomes.
At the same time, Doleac challenges conventional wisdom and does not shy away from counterintuitive findings. Intensive probation and strict enforcement of supervision conditions, she finds, often have little effect on reoffending. She examines sentencing practices, showing that leniency—especially for first-time offenders, including deferred adjudication—can lead to lower crime and higher labor force participation. She discusses evidence that the possibility of parole reduces disciplinary infractions during incarceration and lowers recidivism relative to systems without parole. She reviews evidence suggesting that “ban-the-box” policies may reduce employment opportunities for Black men, particularly those who are most disadvantaged. In some cases, Doleac even points to evidence that incarceration can have limited positive spillover effects, such as reducing the likelihood that children of justice-involved parents engage in crime—though such findings are nuanced and context-dependent.
Across these examples, Doleac consistently returns to a central theme: carefully designed incentives, second chances, and evidence-based policies can meaningfully reduce criminal behavior without relying on broad or punitive reforms. For readers interested in the research underpinning this “revolution,” The Science of Second Chances offers a clear and compelling introduction.
A vigorous advocate for evidence-based policymaking—including through her podcast Probable Causation—Doleac surveys a wide range of research demonstrating how incentives shape criminal behavior and improve outcomes. She highlights studies showing that adding individuals charged with felonies to DNA databases can reduce future offending, and that “warm-touch handoffs” to mental health services upon release lower rates of rearrest. Research also convincingly shows that targeted tools such as random drug and breathalyzer testing can meaningfully change behavior and improve life outcomes.
At the same time, Doleac challenges conventional wisdom and does not shy away from counterintuitive findings. Intensive probation and strict enforcement of supervision conditions, she finds, often have little effect on reoffending. She examines sentencing practices, showing that leniency—especially for first-time offenders, including deferred adjudication—can lead to lower crime and higher labor force participation. She discusses evidence that the possibility of parole reduces disciplinary infractions during incarceration and lowers recidivism relative to systems without parole. She reviews evidence suggesting that “ban-the-box” policies may reduce employment opportunities for Black men, particularly those who are most disadvantaged. In some cases, Doleac even points to evidence that incarceration can have limited positive spillover effects, such as reducing the likelihood that children of justice-involved parents engage in crime—though such findings are nuanced and context-dependent.
Across these examples, Doleac consistently returns to a central theme: carefully designed incentives, second chances, and evidence-based policies can meaningfully reduce criminal behavior without relying on broad or punitive reforms. For readers interested in the research underpinning this “revolution,” The Science of Second Chances offers a clear and compelling introduction.
May 15, 2026
This is a phenomenal book that brings data to good intentions to find actual solutions to lowering recidivism and avoiding entry into the criminal justice system. I can’t wait to see what more this author writes in the future!
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March 6, 2026Criminal justice is a minefield, but economists running experiments keep finding that rare and beautiful thing: free lunches, or interventions that improve public safety and reduce incarceration. Intuition and good intentions are grossly insufficient, and Doleac encourages rigorous experimentation and following the evidence rather than the party line. She discusses studies and policies clearly, pragmatically, and honestly. I learned a lot about the criminal justice system in the US, left feeling hopeful, and hope other fields do work in the same spirit.
April 30, 2026
If you listen to Probable Causation the books brings no surprises but I appreciate Doleac’s breakdown of how people assume that most good ideas will work.
April 8, 2026
I'm old enough to remember the 1960s, when there was still quite a bit of optimism that the criminal justice system would be able to rehabilitate criminals and give them a second chance. In subsequent decades, however, as crime rates rose and offenders became repeat offenders, I remember that optimism changing to pessimism that anything would prevent crime other than locking up criminals for a very long time. Now, thanks to recent research, we are starting to get a better understanding that some programs actually do work, and, just as importantly, what programs don't work to break the incarceration cycle, improve lives, and give people a second chance.
Jennifer Doleac, the Executive Vice President of Criminal Justice at Arnold Ventures (a philanthropy that supports research on evidence-based policy) is a PhD economist who has done extensive research on criminal justice policy. Why are economists interested in criminal justice?
First of all, crime is economically important. In the United States, federal, state and local governments spent $465 billion in 2024 on police, law courts, and prisons, while the private sector spent a similar amount on things like locks and safes, private security, and cybersecurity. In a 2021 article, David A. Anderson calculated the aggregate cost of crime in the United States, adding in such additional costs as the wages and income forgone by people serving prison sentences, the time people spent securing their property, and the costs of injuries, lives lost, and property lost to crime, and came up with a rather enormous set of estimates. His conservative estimate was $2.9 trillion (about 13% of gross domestic product), while his high-end estimate was twice that much.
The second reason that economists study crime is that, like most human behavior, criminal activity is influenced by costs and incentives, which is the realm that economic models of behavior claim to elucidate.
Third, and most important for this book, is that over the last 30 years empirical economics has undergone a revolution in using natural experiments to separate causality from mere correlation, allowing economists and other researchers to use causal methods to identify policies that have an actual effect on the outcomes that they are intended to impact. This book is a collection of case studies applying causal inference to criminal justice policy.
In the book, Doleac examines ways to intervene at each stage of the criminal justice system to enable better outcomes. She shows examples of how to create effective second chances for people who are arrested and charged with their first offense and explains how to handle people who are on probation for minor offenses. She goes on to examine ways to improve the outcomes associated with prison, enabling people leaving prison to find a job and reenter society. She also looks at how to break the intergenerational cycle of crime that can affect the children of offenders.
Just as interesting as the studies of what works are her notes on what doesn't work. In the introduction she mentions that she encountered backlash when her research showed that certain politically popular approaches are ineffective or even harmful. The examples mentioned include some favorite ideas from both the political right and left. Reading this book, I get the impression that the only political ideology underlying Doleac's policy recommendations is what is demonstrated to work in a cost-effective manner. For her, the evidence that matters is that which is based on randomized field experiments or natural experiments that measure the causal effects of policies. This leads her to an incrementalist approach focusing on small, steady improvements, rather than looking for some grand, overarching model to serve as a panacea.
This book is a great introduction to a topic that all of us should care about. It's well written and is an excellent example of social science working as it should.
Jennifer Doleac, the Executive Vice President of Criminal Justice at Arnold Ventures (a philanthropy that supports research on evidence-based policy) is a PhD economist who has done extensive research on criminal justice policy. Why are economists interested in criminal justice?
First of all, crime is economically important. In the United States, federal, state and local governments spent $465 billion in 2024 on police, law courts, and prisons, while the private sector spent a similar amount on things like locks and safes, private security, and cybersecurity. In a 2021 article, David A. Anderson calculated the aggregate cost of crime in the United States, adding in such additional costs as the wages and income forgone by people serving prison sentences, the time people spent securing their property, and the costs of injuries, lives lost, and property lost to crime, and came up with a rather enormous set of estimates. His conservative estimate was $2.9 trillion (about 13% of gross domestic product), while his high-end estimate was twice that much.
The second reason that economists study crime is that, like most human behavior, criminal activity is influenced by costs and incentives, which is the realm that economic models of behavior claim to elucidate.
Third, and most important for this book, is that over the last 30 years empirical economics has undergone a revolution in using natural experiments to separate causality from mere correlation, allowing economists and other researchers to use causal methods to identify policies that have an actual effect on the outcomes that they are intended to impact. This book is a collection of case studies applying causal inference to criminal justice policy.
In the book, Doleac examines ways to intervene at each stage of the criminal justice system to enable better outcomes. She shows examples of how to create effective second chances for people who are arrested and charged with their first offense and explains how to handle people who are on probation for minor offenses. She goes on to examine ways to improve the outcomes associated with prison, enabling people leaving prison to find a job and reenter society. She also looks at how to break the intergenerational cycle of crime that can affect the children of offenders.
Just as interesting as the studies of what works are her notes on what doesn't work. In the introduction she mentions that she encountered backlash when her research showed that certain politically popular approaches are ineffective or even harmful. The examples mentioned include some favorite ideas from both the political right and left. Reading this book, I get the impression that the only political ideology underlying Doleac's policy recommendations is what is demonstrated to work in a cost-effective manner. For her, the evidence that matters is that which is based on randomized field experiments or natural experiments that measure the causal effects of policies. This leads her to an incrementalist approach focusing on small, steady improvements, rather than looking for some grand, overarching model to serve as a panacea.
This book is a great introduction to a topic that all of us should care about. It's well written and is an excellent example of social science working as it should.
April 16, 2026
This book offers a small ray of hope in a dark and gritty area of public policy.
This is a thorough and academically rigorous review of how various popular programs of criminal justice reform have succeeded or failed, and, perhaps more importantly, how we can know their impacts. Not every well-intended reform is successful, and we need to get much better at finding ethical ways to evaluate policies that impact generations of families.
I read this book as a pre-release NetGalley because I am interested in criminal justice reform. I am already engaged in this space, and some of the examples and studies were already familiar to me, but many were not, and the text made me reconsider some preconceived ideas. As someone who lives in an area where "ban the box" was touted as a positive intervention, I'm disappointed (but not particularly surprised) about the negative outcomes it can encourage. I'm glad I know now and will try to engage with my local community to find better solutions to make our communities safer.
I appreciate the readable language and well-organized selection of the most popular criminal justice policies that seem to be debated over and over. This is a great book to start conversations at a local level to try to find solutions tailored to the problems of local communities, without feeling that you have to boil the ocean and solve all problems to get any improvement for anyone.
This is a thorough and academically rigorous review of how various popular programs of criminal justice reform have succeeded or failed, and, perhaps more importantly, how we can know their impacts. Not every well-intended reform is successful, and we need to get much better at finding ethical ways to evaluate policies that impact generations of families.
I read this book as a pre-release NetGalley because I am interested in criminal justice reform. I am already engaged in this space, and some of the examples and studies were already familiar to me, but many were not, and the text made me reconsider some preconceived ideas. As someone who lives in an area where "ban the box" was touted as a positive intervention, I'm disappointed (but not particularly surprised) about the negative outcomes it can encourage. I'm glad I know now and will try to engage with my local community to find better solutions to make our communities safer.
I appreciate the readable language and well-organized selection of the most popular criminal justice policies that seem to be debated over and over. This is a great book to start conversations at a local level to try to find solutions tailored to the problems of local communities, without feeling that you have to boil the ocean and solve all problems to get any improvement for anyone.
April 5, 2026
Nice overview of criminal justice reform through the lens of causal inference. Doleac takes more of an incremental approach rather than a systemic one, which I imagine might bother some readers, but I understand the motivation here. She highlights many studies that leverage randomness — RCTs when possible, random assignment to judges, discontinuities around thresholds for eligibility, etc. — to get a cleaner read on the outcome of different interventions. The studies around lead and pollution exposure were particularly interesting. Randomness in wind direction / pollution was a cool one.
I very much agree with her that good intentions are not enough in public policy (eg ban the box) and that it’s important to evaluate ideas empirically to the extent that we can. It’s hard but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try!
The book felt a bit formulaic at times — 1) want to study this intervention but 2) it’s not causal 3) let’s leverage this natural source of variation — but I recognize this is an important point to drive home, especially for people less steeped in causal inference.
PS — I get the motivation, but “Freakonomics for criminal justice” might not be the tagline you want to go with lol.
I very much agree with her that good intentions are not enough in public policy (eg ban the box) and that it’s important to evaluate ideas empirically to the extent that we can. It’s hard but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try!
The book felt a bit formulaic at times — 1) want to study this intervention but 2) it’s not causal 3) let’s leverage this natural source of variation — but I recognize this is an important point to drive home, especially for people less steeped in causal inference.
PS — I get the motivation, but “Freakonomics for criminal justice” might not be the tagline you want to go with lol.
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
The biggest takeaway I had from listening to this audiobook was how important it is to base societal change on evidence-based data supported by appropriate statistical analysis. This message feels especially relevant, as people often support ideas that reinforce what they want to believe or think should work, rather than what the evidence actually shows. A lot of the criminal justice reform research that was discussed in this book I had heard about before, but I did learn about some new viable ideas for change. This book does not discuss the psychological understandings or racial disparities of criminal justice besides some very surface level statements. I will have to read something else to fill my desire to read something touching on those (if anyone has recommendations).
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
This was a fascinating listen that gave me great hope for not just our criminal justice system but so many of our social systems. The drama and politics and agendas that get in the way of actual solutions could and should be pushed aside in light of solid research. Doleac makes a great case for it, demonstrating clear ways to use data that already exists to research what is working and what is not. I hope this book finds a wide audience. I felt so hopeful after finishing The Science of Second Chances, and am already trying to look for the right questions to ask and the data that exists to untangle issues I care about. Inspiring read! Thanks to Net Galley and the publisher for the opportunity to read (listen) and review.
March 23, 2026
This was a great read that looks at criminal justice through the lens of behavioral economics. The author provides a lot of fantastic research showing how behavior and incentives affect the criminal justice system. She discussed how implementing certain changes can have a significant reduction in crime and recidivism. One thing that stood out was the data about how people age out of crime. There are certain groups at a higher risk, but the risk drops off after 35.
Another thing was determinate sentences. The author discussed modifying sentences for certain offenses so that a person has an incentive to improve their behavior. For instance, if a person has a 20 year sentence without parole, she argues they won't have much of an incentive to turn their life around. However, by giving that person a shorter sentence with the possibility of parole, they are more inclined to change.
There are some limitations to this book. The author discusses a lot of studies, but the problem is, like most social sciences, its that studies in the social sciences are difficult to replicate. The data can also be inconsistent.
Another thing was determinate sentences. The author discussed modifying sentences for certain offenses so that a person has an incentive to improve their behavior. For instance, if a person has a 20 year sentence without parole, she argues they won't have much of an incentive to turn their life around. However, by giving that person a shorter sentence with the possibility of parole, they are more inclined to change.
There are some limitations to this book. The author discusses a lot of studies, but the problem is, like most social sciences, its that studies in the social sciences are difficult to replicate. The data can also be inconsistent.
April 30, 2026
The Science of Second Chances by Jennifer Doleac presents a data driven and practical approach to criminal justice reform.
The book highlights how small, evidence based interventions can significantly reduce recidivism while improving both public safety and fairness within the system.
Overall, it’s an insightful and accessible read for anyone interested in policy, economics, and meaningful reform in the justice system.
The book highlights how small, evidence based interventions can significantly reduce recidivism while improving both public safety and fairness within the system.
Overall, it’s an insightful and accessible read for anyone interested in policy, economics, and meaningful reform in the justice system.
February 23, 2026
This was fascinating! As a sociology girlie at heart at times it was almost a little frustrating but that’s just because I also wanted these same topics from a sociology lens, this book is not sociology, it’s economics. I really appreciate all the research and study that went into this. Really well written and enjoyable to listen to!
Thanks Libro.fm, the publisher, and author for the ALC :)
Thanks Libro.fm, the publisher, and author for the ALC :)
February 26, 2026
hot DAMN do I love a good book that shows up to a policy issue with DATA. and real data, that cares about actually capturing the confounders and the nth order impacts, not just p-hacked feel good weak evidence, but well designed studies, bluntly (for good or bad) analyzed. I'm going to be handing this out to so many people <3
April 12, 2026
As a framework for how to evaluate the applicability of policy proposals, this isn't so bad. But it frequently reads as a pitch for the author and her services. It's useful to acknowledge and answer criticism, but not to spend so much time on it that your book sounds more like a grievance than an explanation.
March 6, 2026
Really awesome book that I hope is widely read. We can do better and it doesn’t have to be a partisan football
March 7, 2026
I’m probably not the typical audience for this, however I won it in a Goodreads giveaway and gave it a shot! I really appreciate the approach and clear data. It was very informative.
March 23, 2026
Lots of data. Here’s hoping the right people can use it to make things better.
March 28, 2026
A good reference book to today’s society. This was a Goodreads giveaway winner.
Review of advance copy received from Goodreads Giveaways
It was a good read.
Displaying 1 - 23 of 23 reviews