The Taiwan Tinderbox: The Island-Nation at the Center of the New Cold War

by J. Michael Cole

Genres: China

272 pages, Hardcover

First published September 16, 2025

Reviews

[David Frazier · Rating 3 out of 5]

J. Michael Cole has just written an important new book on Taiwan, the Taiwan Tinder Box. I'll admit from the top that it's written more for policy and think tank types than the general reader, but it has a number of important ideas I haven't seen well described elsewhere. Namely:

- Taiwan's blue-green politics is no longer purely a matter of where your grandparents were born and what language they spoke. In other words, the classic divide between China-born waishengren 外省人 and Taiwan-born benshengren is not an absolute marker of political leanings today as it was in the past. One can still make generalizations like most benshengren vote DPP, but on the whole, things are not so clearly clean cut. This began to change in the 2000s-2010s with....

- The rise of Taiwan civil society. Non-government organizations, charities, activist groups, and even to some extent religious groups, focusing on causes like environmentalism, disaster relief, queer rights, etc, brought together Taiwanese from different backgrounds and helped cement the then emerging idea of a shared "Taiwanese" identity. 2nd and 3rd generation waishengren have protested KMT governments and blocked major policies, like a 2014 trade agreement with China that would've eroded Taiwan's sovereignty. At the same time, the majority of Taiwanese businessmen in China are, believe it or not, benshengren. As Beijing pressures them to exhibit loyalty, many have gone in for China-friendly politics that aligns more with the KMT. Tsai Eng-meng is one visible example of a Taiwan-born benshengren who purchased a major newspaper, The China Times, and a cable TV network, CTV, and has imposed a pro-Beijing editorial slant.

That's what I personally found most interesting. But the book covers much more:

- the military / strategic balance between Taiwan, China and the US;

- the rapid changes in the PRC in the last 20 years (not just since Xi came to power)––Cole believes the biggest change and source of the PRC's threats against Taiwan is the vast increase in its military capabilities;

- how Ukraine has changed things;

- what a war (or blockade, or quarantine) might look like;

- what Taiwan, the US and international community can do to avoid war (the answer is not to stop "aggravating" Beijing);

- and ultimately, why Taiwan is important to other nations (especially liberal democracies) strategically, economically and morally.

I have a full review in the Taipei Times:
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/feat...

[Daniel Mcintyre · Rating 4 out of 5]

An excellent primer on the strategic challenges Taiwan faces and there implication for the region and the wider world. Those familiar with Taiwan’s situation will pick up something new, while those unfamiliar will come away with a strong grounding. That said, it’s coverage of the internal dynamics within Taiwan — such as the significant polarisation and constitutional structure, and the role they play in exacerbating Taiwan’s challenges — is a slightly bit light, so readers seeking a fuller picture of the role of domestic politics will have to go elsewhere. This is a little bit regrettable, as the author has written authoritatively about this elsewhere, and an unvarnished treatment of the deeply contested internal political dynamics is often neglected in these types of books about Taiwan. But that aside, this is an articulate and timely update on Taiwan’s international position, and is heartily recommended.

[Liz H · Rating 5 out of 5]

The Taiwan Tinderbox is a compelling and highly relevant exploration of Taiwan’s pivotal role in contemporary global politics.

J. Michael Cole provides a clear and engaging analysis of the political, strategic, and historical factors that have made Taiwan a focal point in the growing competition between major world powers. The book offers valuable context while illuminating the broader implications of regional tensions for international security and stability.

Overall, it is an essential read for fans of geopolitics, international relations, East Asian studies, and thoughtful analyses of the challenges shaping the modern world.

[Bea · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is a political commentator I have followed for many years. His newest book, like his past writing, is sharp and concise. A must read for those trying to catch up on Taiwan politics!