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Tides of Fortune: The Rise and Decline of Great Militaries
An ambitious look at how the twentieth century’s great powers devised their military strategies and what their implications mean for military competition between the United States and China
How will the United States and China evolve militarily in the years ahead? Many experts believe the answer to this question is largely unknowable. But Zack Cooper argues that the American and Chinese militaries are following a well-trodden path. For centuries, the world’s most powerful militaries have adhered to a remarkably consistent pattern of behavior, determined largely by their leaders’ perceptions of relative power shifts. By uncovering these trends, this book places the evolving military competition between the United States and China in historical context.
Drawing on a decade of research and on his experience at the White House and the Pentagon, Cooper outlines a novel explanation for how militaries change as they rise and decline. Tides of Fortune examines the paths of six great powers of the twentieth century, tracking how national leaders adjusted their defense objectives, strategies, and investments in response to perceived shifts in relative power. All these militaries followed a common pattern, and their experiences shed new light on both China’s recent military modernization and America’s potential responses.
How will the United States and China evolve militarily in the years ahead? Many experts believe the answer to this question is largely unknowable. But Zack Cooper argues that the American and Chinese militaries are following a well-trodden path. For centuries, the world’s most powerful militaries have adhered to a remarkably consistent pattern of behavior, determined largely by their leaders’ perceptions of relative power shifts. By uncovering these trends, this book places the evolving military competition between the United States and China in historical context.
Drawing on a decade of research and on his experience at the White House and the Pentagon, Cooper outlines a novel explanation for how militaries change as they rise and decline. Tides of Fortune examines the paths of six great powers of the twentieth century, tracking how national leaders adjusted their defense objectives, strategies, and investments in response to perceived shifts in relative power. All these militaries followed a common pattern, and their experiences shed new light on both China’s recent military modernization and America’s potential responses.
1 pages, Audio CD
Published May 6, 2025
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Displaying 1 - 5 of 5 reviews
September 5, 2025
A very coherent argument was presented by the author, the Perceived Relative Power Theory. When a country thinks it’s getting strong, it spends more on expansionist offensive mobile strategy, buying durable weaponry to control overseas territories. When a country thinks it’s getting weak, it spends more on defensive fixed strategy, buying temporary weapons to deny access.
Many examples of Britain, US, Germany and Japan were given, and they all made sense.
This explains why China is now building aircraft carriers. America should use cheap drones to fight China in Asia; new war games showed it would win if this strategy is adopted.
Many examples of Britain, US, Germany and Japan were given, and they all made sense.
This explains why China is now building aircraft carriers. America should use cheap drones to fight China in Asia; new war games showed it would win if this strategy is adopted.
March 21, 2026
A short and sharp book.
Parsimonious and clear realist framework that incorporates perceptions as a key element. Discusses when reality doesn't match theory and introduces some good nuances: domestic coalitions, leadership as a factor, threat perception, sluggishness of adjustment to power trends (especially for declining powers).
Loved the clear language, but disliked the social science-y lists in the first and last chapter. References sometimes are a bit bloated.
Minor gripes is the discussion of the US-China rivalry. It felt slightly pre-2022 in tone. The deeper anti-lessons of that conflict like extreme technological uncertainty, industrial attrition math, and questionable resilience of legacy systems weren't really integrated in the discussion.
Yet, it's one of the better concise strategic reads. If you want a tight, logical toolkit for thinking about military and great power trends, this is it.
Parsimonious and clear realist framework that incorporates perceptions as a key element. Discusses when reality doesn't match theory and introduces some good nuances: domestic coalitions, leadership as a factor, threat perception, sluggishness of adjustment to power trends (especially for declining powers).
Loved the clear language, but disliked the social science-y lists in the first and last chapter. References sometimes are a bit bloated.
Minor gripes is the discussion of the US-China rivalry. It felt slightly pre-2022 in tone. The deeper anti-lessons of that conflict like extreme technological uncertainty, industrial attrition math, and questionable resilience of legacy systems weren't really integrated in the discussion.
Yet, it's one of the better concise strategic reads. If you want a tight, logical toolkit for thinking about military and great power trends, this is it.
July 12, 2026
Pretty short read. The framing for defense policy was pretty straightforward and while I would apply the ebb and flow concept more robustly like interwoven threads within a larger policy framework to separate certain expressions of control or denial, sustainability or expansion, offense or defense across domains, sectors, or theaters; it might work better viewing competing forces practically without compromising from the idea of a rising or declining power - relative to national perceptions. I thought the case studies were good, I don't dislike the overall direction the author takes, nor am I overly stumped by the open-ended prescriptions for a potential Sino-American "trap." I thought it was a good exercise in grouping objectives, strategies, and investments as ends, ways, and means - I would caution any reader to worry about those underlying assumptions driving that relative power theorizing, but I felt it was a decent book and I would recommend it.
March 22, 2026
History should be used for modern policy purposes in mor than just an essay format.
Displaying 1 - 5 of 5 reviews