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The Long Depression: Marxism and the Global Crisis of Capitalism

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Setting out from an unapologetic Marxist perspective, The Long Depression argues that the global economy remains in the throes of a depression. Making the case that the profitability of capital is too low, and the debt built up before the Great Recession too high, leading radical economist Michael Roberts persuasively presents his case that this depression will persist until the profitability of capital is restored through yet another slump.

360 pages, Paperback

First published April 7, 2015

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About the author

Michael Roberts

5 books35 followers
Michael Roberts has worked as an economist for over thirty years in the City of London financial center.

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Displaying 1 - 27 of 27 reviews
Profile Image for Alexander.
200 reviews216 followers
December 7, 2021
With every new crisis of capitalism comes a renewed interest in the question of economics. What is this system under which we all live, and how does it work? Since the crash of 2008, and now almost three years into a world economy beset by Covid, the overwhelming sense that ‘something isn’t right’ clearly lingers even among the most optimistic of us all. Yet what is the nature of the problem, really? For every person, nearly a different answer: too much debt, say the champions of austerity; not enough liquidity, say the central bankers; central banks themselves, retort the Austrians, as they call for their disbanding; ‘too much finance, not enough investment!’ cry the Keynesians, who proscribe the medicine of interminable spending. This to say nothing of the charges against ‘the elite’ and ‘the globalists’, too greedy for the rest of us, paying the price for their avarice.

For Michael Roberts these answers are excuses: if they serve to explain anything, they do so by taking our eye off the malformed ball that is capitalism itself. A stalwart defender of Marx’s thesis of ‘the tendency of rate of profit to fall’ (TRPF), Roberts finds the failings of capitalism intrinsic to its operation: its crises are ‘endogenous’ and generated from within, and not – as many would have it – shocks from the outside, or results of the ills of bad management. As Marx put it: the limit to capital is capital itself. Or one last time in Clintonese: it’s the profits, stupid. Marshalling an impressive array of data to make the point, Roberts makes his case on (almost) purely empirical grounds: if the falling rate of profit is to blame, the proof is in the profit pudding, whose ‘falling rate’ has more or less tracked its crises all through its history.

Although devoting a pair of chapters to the depressions of 1880 and 1930 respectively, it’s to our most recent – and ongoing – depression that Roberts spends the bulk of his efforts. Indeed, that the depression is in fact ongoing is central to Roberts’ narrative, for whom the superficial signs of economic recovery have been just that – superficial. For, when attending to the world rate of profit, the story is simply one of a non-recovery. Instead what we have are ‘zombie companies’, propped up on debt and low interest rates, along with the spectacular rise of financial and real estate speculation, all of which serves – only just – to keep the world economy treading above water, even as the profit rate wallows at world historical lows. Although this was written in 2016, followers of Roberts’ blog (@thenextrecession) will find that he still holds to this line, and that, at least as of this review, the long depression continues its longevity.

And for then as for now, Roberts’ prognosis remains chilling: without another drastic economic slump that would clear away the ‘deadwood’ of unprofitable and inefficient companies, we will remain mired in this depression, until time unforeseen. Hence the choice offered by the book’s end: either let capitalism’s ‘creative destruction’ purge its system of its crumbling elements – with all the misery that will entail – or else reignite the search for system beyond the limits of capitalism, free from its perpetual cycles of self-engendered crises. That the stakes are so sharply drawn is perhaps the best part of The Long Depression. For all the many diagnoses of our ills that exist, Roberts’ uncompromised hewing to a world beyond this one puts into sharp relief the many complaints about ‘financialization’ (Mazzucato) and even inequality (Pikkety) – to take two popular, recent examples – as so many attacks on symptoms rather than causes. Time to get to the causes.
Profile Image for Emma Caterine.
Author 2 books12 followers
July 23, 2016
First, here is my blog entry about the book. It is mostly about the US laws that effect the economic phenomenons that Roberts describes in the book.

As to the book itself, Roberts provides an exhaustive quantification of Marx's law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall, as well as concluding the book with his proposal for a profit cycle (henceforth called Roberts cycle) and his projections for the immediate and long term future.

Roberts's analysis goes chronologically, starting with the long depression in 1873, then the Great Depression, the neoliberal period, and the Great Recession (which he also argues is a long depression). Particularly in the neoliberal period and the Great Recession, Roberts's analysis is notable for its important international approach, looking at not only the EU countries but also Japan, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey, China, and others.

Roberts has that rare talent of making his uncompromisingly empirical approach entertaining and accessible. While a certain understanding of economics (and not just Marxist economics, but also Keynesian, monetarist, Austrian, even Ricardian) does help to get through the book, it is certainly not required and Roberts lays out the meanings of all the jargon so that readers who are not well-versed don't get left behind.

This data-based approach makes this a great book to share with the STEM minded person in your life who will find the numerous graphs and calculations much more familiar than dialectics.
Profile Image for Avery.
184 reviews92 followers
January 15, 2023
Very clearly and plainly written analysis of the 2008 recession and its place in the history of global capitalism. Very compelling explanations and although I'm agnostic on a lot of these questions I found myself nodding along throughout.
Profile Image for Rhys.
904 reviews139 followers
June 29, 2017
Clear writing, detailed statistics, convincing thesis: profit is all that matters in a capitalist economy, and the tendency for the falling-rate-of-profit suggests an ever-increasing rate of exploitation combined with greater capitalization (automation, robotics, AI). Roberts concludes that there is no determinism for the failure of capitalist economies, that is, until people chose (and fight for) another, more sustainable, more humane, system.

"Such a path of economic development is hugely wasteful of human life and time, as it involves not just the loss of potential output or use values to society but also loss of employment and livelihood of hundreds of millions of working people and their families at recurrent intervals. It breeds social inequality and instability and frequent wars. Unless the working class seizes political power and replaces the capitalist system with another, the figure suggests that capitalism will find a way out. There is no permanent crisis in the sense of total endogenous breakdown" (p.251).
Profile Image for Joe Xtarr.
277 reviews24 followers
August 25, 2016
I'm not even sure where to begin in my praise of this book. It set out to prove Marx's theory of the falling rate of profit over time, and boy did it do that! It will be nearly impossible to not understand this concept by the final chapter. Complete with charts and hard data, a precise and effective analysis has been made upon the mechanism of our Capitalist economy. Some of the figures and concepts become redundant throughout the book, but every solid theory and analytical framework should be dry and repetitive in order to remain effective.

I would advise that you have a good grasp of the formula s/c+v and the organic composition of capital prior to reading this. Roberts spends only a short chapter on the actual explanation of these concepts, and your understanding of them is absolutely critical to the development and comprehension of the core message of the work.

Well done! The world needs this book right now.
19 reviews5 followers
March 17, 2020
Michael Roberts reminds us that scientific analysis of the economy is not only possible, but absolutely necessary if we want to know whether it will recur in the future, how it will recur, and what its effects may be. In contrast to mainstream economists — not only apologists for capitalism, but thoroughly incapable of explaining capitalist crisis — Roberts sets out to show the empirical operation of Marx's law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall (LTRPF), and its role in determining investment and capitalist crisis.

Roberts is clear (anything remotely resembling jargon is explained in simple terms), methodical and diligent. He compares his conclusions and scientific, empirical methods to those of the mainstream economists to demonstrate the real workings of the LTRPF in the global capitalist economy.

This is an excellent text for anyone who wants to brush up on their grasp of Marxist economics, and unleash its unparalleled explanatory power of the capitalist economy.
Profile Image for Martin Empson.
Author 19 books168 followers
November 9, 2016
I've focused in this review on what I consider to be the key part of The Long Depression - it's systematic explanation of the cause of slump and the importance of a Marxist approach. There is much more here. Readers of Michael Robert's blog will know that the has discussed the question of robot and AI technology and whether this will lead to a rosy future or a dystopian nightmare. Again he puts the question of profitability at the heart of this, showing that a completely robotic knowledge economy in the future is impossible. The chapters that look at the economic prospects for particular countries and regions are also interesting, if sobering, accounts of the bleak future for most working people unless they fight back.
Full review on the blog: http://resolutereader.blogspot.co.uk/...
Profile Image for Michal Lipták.
99 reviews78 followers
February 10, 2020
Fast-forward overview of various explanations of capitalist crisis - including the Great Recession which Roberts argues should be called Long Depression. The argument is made in favour of Marx's LTRPF as best explanation for the crisis; therefore Great Recession is entirely endogenous to capitalism and we're not getting out unless either a significant devaluation of fixed capital - or its physical destruction - takes place (i.e. a change in organic composition of capital is required). Roberts argues that this have not happened yet (in 2016, that is, but if you follow his blog you know this holds for 2020, still) and we still have long way to go. Capitalism can restore itself, but it requires even more brutal slump, or war. However, a man-made climate change - also interpreted as endogenous to capitalism - may get us first, although this line of thought is not followed in depth here.

This is really a kind of broader overview which may not be as persuasive if you're not already familiar with the argument - and to thoroughly familiarize with it, one should go for Andrew Kliman's wonderful Reclaiming Marx's Capital for theoretical justification of logical consistency of LTRPF as the theory of capitalist crisis, and for Failure of Capitalist Production for empirical demonstration that it is operative in current crisis, demonstrated on the basis of data in US, mainly.

In contrast to Kliman's obsessive and painstakingly detailed explanation of how one calculates the rate of profit (which is difficult since the existing data are not designed to easily lend themselves to Marxist divisions of productive/unproductive sectors, or notions of organic composition of capital, and so on - why should they), Roberts frivolously offers rates for various economies and even world rate, but the methods of calculations are not explained. In Appendix I., he comments on Kliman, too, and claims that while he uses historic costs of fixed capital instead of current costs (that is, current costs of replacement of machinery and so on), similarly as Kliman, his results show restoration of ROP between 1982 to 1997 instead of secular decline since 1973 as Kliman shows. How, why? We don't know. Not being an economist myself, and relying on other people's calculations, I'm more sympathetic to Kliman who thoroughly explains to me what he does.

Not that it changes the overall gist of the argument, though, Robert's and Kliman's conclusions on why this crisis happened and where do we go from here are basically similar, irrespective of whether they believe there was or wasn't a slight surge in ROP during "neoliberal revival" from 1982 to 1997. In any case, if I once again engage in some pointless flame war on social media about economics, I'd look to Kliman to back up my arguments to make myself look less a dilettante. Robert's book is entertaining bonus if you're already convinced.
Profile Image for Daniel.
80 reviews19 followers
August 21, 2019
This is a persuasive account of what Roberts describes as the Long Depression - the persistent difficulties which the global capitalist economy has encountered since the Great Recession (the title of another of his books, which I've not read) a little over a decade ago. Roberts does a good job of making his case, which I find convincing, about the primacy of the LTRPF in explaining capitalist crises, and also in showing the inadequacy of Keynesian responses. I was particularly impressed by the book's international scope, covering a wide range of different countries in quite a lot of detail, and making sure to recognise the importance of imperialism.

Equally, I think Roberts could have afforded to be just a touch more complicated. There are times when it's a bit if a who's who of contemporary Marxist or left-wing economists, and that's particularly obvious the further removed from the central thesis Roberts gets - it's a useful set of references to work on inequality or the environment, but I don't think Roberts does enough to incorporate these insights into his own argument about the Long Depression.
Profile Image for William.
546 reviews12 followers
June 4, 2017
Thanks Emma for recommending!
Important to know that there's just about one way out of this, and that's the end of capitalism and the beginning of some sort of shared ownership of production. This is all very consistent with what I've read about automation and the need to decrease the length of the work week--or even the abolition of paid labor and the replacing of it with a Universal Basic Income of some kind--and what I've observed about life. You just boil it down to where it can go and it goes to this: profitability has a downward historical and predictable tendency to fall and is not a sustainable motivation for production of the goods we want and needs we have. Lending to my brother next who'd read that French book that I think is also called "Capital" or something or another.
99 reviews4 followers
July 21, 2021
Michael Roberts supports the falling rate of profit tendency in Marxist theory with an impressive collection of empirical evidence. Using statistical sets from multiple countries, he shows that as investment in productive machines grows in relation to the workers using them, profit rates fall, eventually leading to periodic slumps and recessions, just as Marx hypothesized. The significance of this understanding is that capitalism is a crisis prone system that can never offer smooth, steady development. Of course, periodic crises mostly affect working people, who are thrown out of work and suffer austerity measures during economic downturns. Either way, capitalism is exploiting working people and destroying the biosphere and so it has to go.
25 reviews
June 2, 2025
Every single American should read this RIGHT NOW.
Not having a background on economics is actually fine, the author explains everything pretty clearly
it does help having your Das Capital knowledge but every conclusion you need he gives it to you before he explains the graphics.

There is this tendency that we all feel (specially on our wallets) that in business it gets harder and harder to get profit. Turns out Marx discovered this universal law in 1864. NO one wanted to believe it
and all the economic policies ignored it.

With the failure of neoliberalism, Laissez-Faire free market, and keynesian economics. We understand capitalism profit in disappearing. This book is ideal to read.
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Profile Image for Roberto Yoed.
811 reviews
October 22, 2022
Apply Kondratiev's cycles and Marx's volume 3 of Das Kapital on all crisis and depressions capitalist societies have suffered until now and voilà!: you get this magnificent economic analysis.

Roberts doesn't stop on the economic analysis and sometimes gives some political insights about socialist nations and revolutions. Also, he loves to bully Keynes and his sectarian followers so you don't get bored between so much numbers and percentages.

Of course the book isn't perfect (missing some philosophical views on my opinion), but to be honest I don't think an economic analysis can get better than this.
Profile Image for John.
Author 4 books28 followers
December 25, 2018
The book I'd been looking for: a clear explanation of contemporary economic events through a socialist lens without being too dense with jargon. There are some treatments of competing theories that may be too inside baseball for a new reader. Whether the 2008 Recession was due to insufficient demand (some Marxists) or inherent cycles in the law of profitability (other Marxists) only matters if you're talking to Marxists.

If you have a classical education in economics that you've been looking to unwind and reconstruct over the last 10 years, this is the one to read.
Profile Image for A L.
591 reviews42 followers
Read
February 9, 2020
Even when recessions are triggered in the finance sector, the root cause is the falling rate of profit from an increasing organic composition of capital; and the excessive debt in modern economies makes it even harder for profitability to recover because productive investments are too risky for the returns they offer. Roberts is a very clear writer, and there's a lot of statistical evidence to illustrate Marxist theories of profitability and crisis, though I wonder if the organization of the book could be better.
Profile Image for Keith Dodds.
6 reviews4 followers
December 5, 2018
An indepth and convincing account of the Long Depression (2008 until now) with a historical backdrop on previous capitalist downturns. Makes the overwhelmingly convincing case that it's the overall declining rate of profit that produces these recessions/depressions and debunks other schools of classical and neo-liberal economics which are at a complete loss in trying to explain why capitalism works the way it does.

His blog is very good as well.
14 reviews20 followers
July 5, 2018
Nice clear writing, plenty of good points; I'm a layman so I'm not sure the figures he's using -- economy wide data from the NIPA, rather than company-by-company data, like SP500 charts -- are the best measure of profits, and therefore whether his defense of Marx's theory of falling profits really holds up. Plenty of good Marxists (as Roberts notes) dispute/disregard it.
22 reviews1 follower
January 20, 2021
A brilliant Marxist analysis of the causes of depressions, focusing on the role of the profitability cycle, explaining how crisis in capitalism is inevitable and explaining the context as to why this particular depression is so much worse than the downturns that have come before it
561 reviews2 followers
Read
May 20, 2025
Already outdated in only 5 years, and in many ways a summation of Roberts' blog posts; nevertheless, it's useful to see the ways in which our current economic reality is shaped by changes to the rate of profit.
Profile Image for Joe Pickert.
141 reviews1 follower
January 25, 2022
Interesting and novel analysis delivered through subpar writing
353 reviews26 followers
January 31, 2018
A useful and interesting analysis of the long view of capitalism over the last hundred years and the incidence of crisis. Roberts takes apart orthodox economics explanation of crisis and seeks to demonstrate that standard theories are inadequate. Instead he asserts the Marxist view that a long term tendency for the rate of profit to decline means that the likely return on investment is simply too low for companies to invest, and also drives the move to pursue profit through financial assets rather than productive investment.

In Roberts view is this long term trend which has driven what he depicts as the "long depression" of the title since the 2007-8 financial crisis. It is a well written and convincing argument, although well within the 'orthodox' Marxist tradition.

Late on there is an interesting segment on the various cycles in capitalism, including Kondratiev long waves, although I'm not sure it's entirely clear how this is driven by a declining rate of profit.

I picked up some of these points in a post on "financialisation" here https://marxadventure.wordpress.com/2...

In short a modern and comprehensive restatement of the tendency of the rate of profit to decline and the influence of 'countervailing' factors which create the cycle of capitalism and where it might be leading us.
Profile Image for Jason Schulman.
30 reviews11 followers
December 26, 2016
Clearly written and thoroughly convincing. Provides the best argument available that socialism isn't just an ethical ideal or a desirable option but a genuine necessity. Capitalism offers nothing but class exploitation, persistent crises and ecological devastation.
Profile Image for Ietrio.
6,949 reviews24 followers
April 15, 2019
When your knowledge is built up on newspaper headlines, yea, this is a long depression. I have no idea if Roberts is that ignorant or he is just another populist playing the market. Frankly I don't think there is much of a difference anyway.
Profile Image for John Passant.
Author 4 books4 followers
December 3, 2016
A great book, and one that helps us understand clearly what is happening in the global economy today.
Profile Image for Nicholas Driscoll.
16 reviews
April 17, 2017
Roberts analyses the current world economic situation in its historic context. Using as a basis Marx's hypothesis of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall. A thought provoking book well written.
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