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Elemental: The New Geography of Climate Change and How We Survive It: The first comprehensive account of the geopolitics of climate change
'An extraordinary mastery of geopolitics, combining years on the ground in the most challenging places, a raw instinct for politics and a deep ethical concern for the world in the face of climate catastrophe. A masterpiece.' - RORY STEWART
'A powerful, passionate and utterly convincing book.' - LORD PETER RICKETTS
From the water-stressed mountains of the Arabian Peninsula to the wildfires raging through America's most populated regions, the climate crisis is already affecting the lives of millions. As natural disasters and increased scarcity shake the established world order to its core, Elemental reveals an alternative future is still possible.
Within this century, the new era of extreme weather will threaten India's ability to grow rice, prevent southern Europe's farms from providing the continent with fresh produce, and make building in Saudi Arabia near impossible. While such unprecedented challenges inevitably drive conflict, they will also encourage innovation, upending economies and global power structures to create opportunities for new players and pioneering ways of living.
In this groundbreaking study, Arthur Snell visits rapidly changing societies to show how we can live on a warming planet. He presents a vision in which Africa powers Europe with solar energy, where autocratic oil states are no more, and new shipping routes across the melting Arctic bring Asia, Europe and North America closer than ever before. In Russia, huge areas of highly fertile land will be exposed by the melting ice for whoever can seize it, while China's stranglehold on rare minerals looks set to make it the world's leading superpower.
Through four sections - Earth, Air, Fire and Water - Elemental blends reportage with analysis and interviews with key experts, policymakers and politicians, to reveal the turbulent future we face - and the choices we need to make to avert disaster.
'A powerful, passionate and utterly convincing book.' - LORD PETER RICKETTS
From the water-stressed mountains of the Arabian Peninsula to the wildfires raging through America's most populated regions, the climate crisis is already affecting the lives of millions. As natural disasters and increased scarcity shake the established world order to its core, Elemental reveals an alternative future is still possible.
Within this century, the new era of extreme weather will threaten India's ability to grow rice, prevent southern Europe's farms from providing the continent with fresh produce, and make building in Saudi Arabia near impossible. While such unprecedented challenges inevitably drive conflict, they will also encourage innovation, upending economies and global power structures to create opportunities for new players and pioneering ways of living.
In this groundbreaking study, Arthur Snell visits rapidly changing societies to show how we can live on a warming planet. He presents a vision in which Africa powers Europe with solar energy, where autocratic oil states are no more, and new shipping routes across the melting Arctic bring Asia, Europe and North America closer than ever before. In Russia, huge areas of highly fertile land will be exposed by the melting ice for whoever can seize it, while China's stranglehold on rare minerals looks set to make it the world's leading superpower.
Through four sections - Earth, Air, Fire and Water - Elemental blends reportage with analysis and interviews with key experts, policymakers and politicians, to reveal the turbulent future we face - and the choices we need to make to avert disaster.
384 pages, Kindle Edition
Published March 12, 2026
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Displaying 1 - 5 of 5 reviews
May 23, 2026
Written by a former British diplomat, this fascinating book looks not only at the impacts of man made climate change, which will seriously adversely affect the lives of our children and grandchildren, but also at the geopolitical implications.
The author considers the chaos of Trump makes it unlikely America will ever be able to catch up with the huge lead China has established in renewable energy technologies and the processing of rare earth minerals, and that America’s power, which was built on fossil fuels, will fast decline in the coming decades.
He predicts it will be even worse for the oil reliant producers of the Middle East who will run out of money. Demand for oil will start reducing soon, (and Trump’s war on Iran is accelerating that as it has only served to supercharge the move to renewables).
North Africa could become an energy superpower because of the Sahara’s abundant sunshine.
China will weaken Russia’s grip on Siberia with its need for more agricultural land, initially by Chinese companies running farms there - something they have already started- and ultimately seeking the return of those parts Russia took from China in the 1800s when it was weak.
Water shortages could ignite conflict between India and China, and India and Pakistan, as well as elsewhere.
Many cities could be facing ‘zero day’ in the not too distant future when they literally run out of it. Rising sea levels will wipe others out. Increasing heat will also make many areas uninhabitable due to the ‘wet bulb’ temperature which humans can’t survive.
All in all, quite a depressing read. Time to lessen the scale of disaster heading our way is fast running out, unless voters get rid of the Neanderthal climate change deniers and insist on treating the problem like an existential war which must be won.
The author considers the chaos of Trump makes it unlikely America will ever be able to catch up with the huge lead China has established in renewable energy technologies and the processing of rare earth minerals, and that America’s power, which was built on fossil fuels, will fast decline in the coming decades.
He predicts it will be even worse for the oil reliant producers of the Middle East who will run out of money. Demand for oil will start reducing soon, (and Trump’s war on Iran is accelerating that as it has only served to supercharge the move to renewables).
North Africa could become an energy superpower because of the Sahara’s abundant sunshine.
China will weaken Russia’s grip on Siberia with its need for more agricultural land, initially by Chinese companies running farms there - something they have already started- and ultimately seeking the return of those parts Russia took from China in the 1800s when it was weak.
Water shortages could ignite conflict between India and China, and India and Pakistan, as well as elsewhere.
Many cities could be facing ‘zero day’ in the not too distant future when they literally run out of it. Rising sea levels will wipe others out. Increasing heat will also make many areas uninhabitable due to the ‘wet bulb’ temperature which humans can’t survive.
All in all, quite a depressing read. Time to lessen the scale of disaster heading our way is fast running out, unless voters get rid of the Neanderthal climate change deniers and insist on treating the problem like an existential war which must be won.
Review of advance copy received from Publisher
Thank you to Wildfire / Headline / Hachette for the advanced reading copy.
I had the pleasure of interviewing Arthur Snell about this book for an author event at Rossiter Books.
Elemental is a fascinating exploration of how geo-politics may play out as climate change impacts us, often in unexpecting ways and not always negatively. It's a bit of a risk assessment of the world based on various aspects of climate change: from food security to migration, energy resources to disappearing countries, and melting ice caps to clean water shortage.
Arthur Snell considers the potential outcomes of some of the efforts to mitigate climate change and how they could or have lead to unintended consequences; for instance our successful global effort in reducing acid rain, which is of course a positive thing, has actually led to increased global temperatures. And how moving away from fossil fuels has led to a race for access to rare minerals and consequently we are creating a world where the power will move away from the West and middle East and into the hands of countries we have previously been more wary of alliancing ourselves with.
And talking of China, their ability to implement more long-term strategies has led to their dominance in many climate change solutions, leaving the West on the back foot as often our democratic processes and short term outlooks can hinder the strategic, and sometimes more authoritarian, thinking that is necessary.
It is abound with facts and science that is really clearly explained. Solar geo-engineering (weather control) and crop modification (changing rice from a C3 structure to a C4 more hardy structure) could be dry subjects potentially but they are written about engagingly and accessibly.
Highly recommended for people who have enjoyed Tim Marshall's Prisoners of Geography books.
I had the pleasure of interviewing Arthur Snell about this book for an author event at Rossiter Books.
Elemental is a fascinating exploration of how geo-politics may play out as climate change impacts us, often in unexpecting ways and not always negatively. It's a bit of a risk assessment of the world based on various aspects of climate change: from food security to migration, energy resources to disappearing countries, and melting ice caps to clean water shortage.
Arthur Snell considers the potential outcomes of some of the efforts to mitigate climate change and how they could or have lead to unintended consequences; for instance our successful global effort in reducing acid rain, which is of course a positive thing, has actually led to increased global temperatures. And how moving away from fossil fuels has led to a race for access to rare minerals and consequently we are creating a world where the power will move away from the West and middle East and into the hands of countries we have previously been more wary of alliancing ourselves with.
And talking of China, their ability to implement more long-term strategies has led to their dominance in many climate change solutions, leaving the West on the back foot as often our democratic processes and short term outlooks can hinder the strategic, and sometimes more authoritarian, thinking that is necessary.
It is abound with facts and science that is really clearly explained. Solar geo-engineering (weather control) and crop modification (changing rice from a C3 structure to a C4 more hardy structure) could be dry subjects potentially but they are written about engagingly and accessibly.
Highly recommended for people who have enjoyed Tim Marshall's Prisoners of Geography books.
May 20, 2026
In the play "Amadeus" by Peter Shaffer, Emperor Joseph II says to Mozart, "My dear young man, don't take it too hard. Your work is ingenious. It's quality work. And there are simply too many notes, that's all. Just cut a few and it will be perfect." The Emperor is cast as a privileged buffoon in contrast to the genius, Mozart. And we are meant to laugh, which we dutifully do. After reading Arthur Snell’s book, this quote came back to me. I felt like saying to Mr Snell, “It’s a very well researched book, and you make some interesting connections between geo-politics and climate change. But there are just too many facts.” I may not have suggested that he cut some, though I might have. My bigger gripe is that they are badly organised. As a consequence, at times, I felt like I was drowning in them.
The overarching structure of the book just doesn’t work. He breaks it down into four sections representing the four elements of ancient Greece, earth, air, fire and water. Hence, the title of the book. The problem is that the facts that he includes in the different sections often seem to have only a very loose connection to the element, and to each other. As a consequence, the narrative does not engage the reader and left me feeling a bit bored.
The overarching structure of the book just doesn’t work. He breaks it down into four sections representing the four elements of ancient Greece, earth, air, fire and water. Hence, the title of the book. The problem is that the facts that he includes in the different sections often seem to have only a very loose connection to the element, and to each other. As a consequence, the narrative does not engage the reader and left me feeling a bit bored.
June 17, 2026
Insightful, fascinating, wide-ranging and highly accessible. A compelling narrative of how the rest of this century might shape up, from a geopolitical standpoint, if we don't address climate change very rapidly. (Spoiler: it won't be pretty....but intriguingly some of today's superpowers may find they have to cede control to those with greater vision and far-sightedness.)
It's a hugely thoughtful and thought provoking book.
It's a hugely thoughtful and thought provoking book.
June 30, 2026
Okay, not great
Mainly a disjointed review of well-known geopolitical aspects of unfolding climate change. Not very well written, and could have benefited from better editing. Not really any new information, or vision for the future.
Mainly a disjointed review of well-known geopolitical aspects of unfolding climate change. Not very well written, and could have benefited from better editing. Not really any new information, or vision for the future.
Displaying 1 - 5 of 5 reviews