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160 pages, Paperback
First published February 7, 2015
“The hallmark of a successful theory is that it predicts correctly facts that were not known when the theory was presented, or, better still, which were then known incorrectly. A good theory should have at least two characteristics: it should be in sharp contrast to at least one alternative idea and it should make predictions which are testable.”Molnár makes much the same point:
“[...] A new idea becomes believable when it predicts something that has not yet been measured or explained, especially when the idea is really trying to explain other facts.”The book elaborates on how this triumph of an idea played out. Anyone who had previously looked at a globe for example could see the correspondence in shape between the eastern coast of South America and the western coast of Africa, as if the two continents had once fit together like puzzle pieces. Alfred Wegener was among the first to seriously suggest that this was not mere coincidence, but that the continents had in fact fit together in the past and then drifted apart. Few geologists took the idea seriously before around the year 1958, however, because nobody knew of a mechanism that could push continents across the surface of the Earth. Molnár explains how geologists collected more data after World War II, much of it from under the oceans where tectonic processes such as seafloor spreading and subduction occur. As scientists gained additional power to "see" under the ocean (both instrumentally, and in some cases directly), they found unmistakeable indicators of tectonics. Perhaps the figurative cherry on top came from the introduction of the Global Positioning System (GPS), which for the first time allowed scientists to measure the speeds and directions of land movements directly. The first prototype spacecraft for the GPS project was launched in 1978 and the full constellation of 24 satellites became operational in 1993.
Geology’s greatest impact on society surely derives from resources that the Earth provides, such as oil and gas or iron, aluminum, and copper, as well as rarer metals used in sundry ways. We might ask: Has plate tectonics facilitated the discovery and acquisition of such resources?If he's going to mention geology's impact on society, it boggles the mind that he stays mum on geology's biggest impact of all: enabling humans to destroy Earth's habitable climate, and thereby themselves along with a million other species, largely by burning fossil fuels and dumping the combustion products straight into the atmosphere. At the barest minimum, Molnár ought to mention this problem that geologists facilitated and might help to remedy. He could explain how Nature recycles carbon dioxide back into rocks, and how geologists might find ways to accelerate the process. Natural rock weathering processes might eventually reverse the human-enhanced greenhouse effect (barring a runaway greenhouse effect that transforms Earth into a second scorching Venus and thus literally baking carbon dioxide out of carbonate rocks), but far too slowly to save our current civilization. The fate of humankind might depend on geologists, among many other people, stepping up to the plate. It's a shame that Molnár doesn't acknowledge that, as loudly and insistently as the scale of the impending crisis demands. We're far past the stage where responsible people can pretend climate change is a problem they can safely ignore.