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The Probable Son: A Novel

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A mother secretly believes she’s raising the wrong son, mistakenly switched at birth. But secrets unravel in a gripping and affecting novel about parental love, impossible choices, and what it means to truly be there for someone.

For fourteen years, teacher Elsa Vargas has hidden her belief that she’s mothering the wrong child, accidentally switched at birth. Her beloved son Bird is not like the rest of the family. He’s the introvert among extroverts, the optimist among skeptics. But Elsa knows love is more important than truth, and the best way to keep Bird is to leave well enough alone.

Then the odds catch up with her. A student named Thomas in Elsa’s math class is suddenly uncannily familiar, an older version of Bird’s little brother. When she realizes Thomas shares a birthday with Bird, Elsa has a terrible Thomas is probably her long-lost son.

Soon Elsa is on a clumsy journey to get to know Thomas—and to confirm the truth. Testing the bonds of family, friendship, and even community will surely all be worth it if she gains a son. But what if she loses Bird, the boy she has loved and mothered since his first days of life?

252 pages, Kindle Edition

Published December 2, 2025

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3568 people want to read

About the author

Cindy Jiban

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5 stars
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 91 reviews
Profile Image for Shelley's Book Nook.
530 reviews2,091 followers
October 27, 2025
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Too much gleek and not enough heft.

Elsa is a high school teacher with a fourteen-year-old son. She has always believed he was switched at birth, but no one believes her, so she plays along. Then one day, a new student named Thomas shows up at the school, and he looks a lot like Elsa's family members and has the same birthday. This brings her fears to the forefront of her mind and starts her on a search for the truth. Will she risk the son she raised and loves for the boy she thinks is her biological one?

This should have been a moving story of a mother's love and what defines the word. I love family dramas, especially those with secrets and a mystery attached. BUT the writing in this one seemed clumsy, for lack of a better word. It felt forced and disjointed. It was a slow-paced slog to get through, and it was only 255 pages! I didn't feel any tension, and I found the main characters' decisions frustratingly stupid and inconsistent, so I didn't feel invested at all. The emotions I should have been feeling never came; the ending was underwhelming and felt rushed. What could have been a powerful story of family ended up feeling convoluted and forgettable.

Thank you to NetGalley and the publisher for the ARC.
Profile Image for theliterateleprechaun .
2,519 reviews211 followers
August 24, 2025
4.5 ⭐

The Probable Son, Cindy Jiban’s debut novel, is a fantastic, thought-provoking family drama that explores the possibility that two babies were switched at birth.

I’ve never had children, but I can imagine the gamut of emotions Elsa Vargas vacillated between as her doubt about her baby grew. Jiban placed me in the hospital ward with the Hamiltons at Bird’s birth, so I watched her insecurity develop and was therefore on Elsa’s side from the beginning. Knowing that she’d been through so much already, I wanted her to be wrong. Needing the answers as much as she needed them kept me turning pages. Jiban’s skill at showing readers both sides of the question added to my enjoyment of this book.

I absolutely loved this fantastic debut that questions if seeking the truth is worth the risk of losing something you treasure and explores what it means to ‘be there’ for someone.

The topic of ‘gleeking’ became a heated and laughter-filled discussion around the dinner table for a couple of nights.

I’d recommend this one! It doesn't read like a debut.

I was gifted this copy and was under no obligation to provide a review.
Profile Image for Jo Lee.
1,184 reviews24 followers
November 16, 2025
3.5 🌟.

A debut that brought something a bit different to the table and really made me think. Elsa has believed for 14 years that she brought the wrong son home from the hospital. A middle grade maths teacher, teaching 8th grade, making her class the same age as that son. When she presents a maths problem one day she discovers that a child in her class shares the same birthday as her boy, but there’s more than that, she observes lots of family communalities in Thomas, and becomes entirely convinced that he is hers, and she needs to prove it.

Lots of twists turns, truths and drama come flooding out and leave Elsa’s family and career in a tailspin!

Great narration, I’ll look forward to more from the author.

Huge thanks to Brilliance publishing and NetGalley for the opportunity to review this ALC 🎧
Profile Image for Bre.
415 reviews358 followers
December 4, 2025
Thank you to NetGalley, Cindy Jiban and Brilliance Publishing for this ARC copy. The following is my honest review.
I picked up The Probable Son because the premise sounded intriguing: a story of identity, memory, and the impact of secrets on families (with the sense of mystery that I hoped would draw me in). As a debut by a Minnesota author, I was genuinely excited to read it.
I found the pacing extremely slow, to the point where I struggled to follow the direction or intention behind the story. It often felt like the plot was dragging without building toward anything, and that made it difficult to stay connected.
I do wonder if part of my struggle comes from the book leaning much more into literary fiction territory than the mystery/suspense angle I was expecting. Readers who love quiet, introspective narratives may find more to hold onto here, but that shift definitely impacted my experience.
I did end up setting the book down with plans to finish (ARC responsibility and all), but every time I thought about picking it back up, I felt myself resisting. At a certain point I had to accept it wasn’t happening.
Profile Image for plantsandpageturners.
154 reviews23 followers
December 16, 2025
Thank you to NetGalley and Brilliance Publishing for the ARC copy.

The concept of this book and the description really hooked me! The emotional weight of motherhood, identity, and doubt is heavy and compelling and I appreciated how much time the story spends sitting with those uncomfortable feelings.
That said, the pacing lagged for me at times especially with how much of the story lives inside the protagonist’s head. Some sections felt repetitive and I didn’t fully connect with the emotional payoff the way I hoped.

Overall this was a solid, thoughtful read with a strong premise and moments that really worked (even if the execution didn’t completely land for me) Totally worth picking up if you enjoy emotional character driven stories.
Profile Image for Bridget Sadenwater.
66 reviews6 followers
August 28, 2025
A Probable Son is a thought-provoking book that explores family, motherhood, and relationships. The story follows Elsa, a middle school teacher and mother of two, who has long carried the unsettling belief that the baby she gave birth to 14 years ago was switched in the hospital nursery. Her husband and sister dismissed her concerns as confusion, but Elsa never quite shook the feeling. When a student in her class who happens to share her son’s birthday begins to resemble her youngest, her suspicions resurface and intensify.

At times I found Elsa frustrating, as she handled situations differently than I might have, but that also made her feel more real and complex. I could understand her struggle even when I disagreed with her choices. The book kept me engaged, raising fascinating questions about truth, perception, and maternal instinct. A strong and compelling debut.

Thank you to the publisher and NetGalley for providing the arc in exchange for an honest review.
Profile Image for Michelle Combs.
19 reviews1 follower
September 1, 2025
I was sucked into the story right from the beginning, feeling for this woman who was certain that her son was switched with another while she rested after giving birth. It took some turns that I did not expect, which I love about books, and I am so glad that the end turned out like it did. I was a little worried for the characters for a bit! I read every free minute that I had to know how this family’s story turned out. I will definitely be sharing this with friends and my book club!
Profile Image for Alenna Burleson.
231 reviews23 followers
November 25, 2025
After Elsa had a still birth her world turned upside down, her whole life revolved around her deceased daughter and it plagued her mind. When she got pregnant again with her son she thought it was going to be a new beginning for her and her family. When she gave birth she looked at her beautiful baby boy, she had passed out but when she woke up the baby they handed her was not the child she saw before. 14 years later she’s convinced her baby boy still isn’t hers, but she may have found out which baby was hers.

This was such a good story about grief manifested in anxiety and ocd. I really enjoyed this novel, the author did a fantastic job as this is their debut.

There are themes in here which can be a bit much, A decent about of child sexual abuse is being thrown around and themes like that. It was a whirlwind of emotions regarding someone who never felt heard or seen and had everyone consistently thinking the worst.

Elsa’s character was seriously judged and brought through the wringer which makes the reader super uncomfortable and attached at the same time.
I really enjoyed this book, Thank you Net Galley for sending this over.
Profile Image for Heather.
34 reviews1 follower
November 13, 2025
This book tells the story of a middle school math teacher, Elsa, who experienced a significant trauma after her daughter died at birth. She suspects that her son, born several years after, was switched in the hospital.

While some of the plot points seemed a bit coincidental and convenient, I was drawn into the story and couldn’t wait to find out what happened to Elsa and her son. Several reviewers alluded to a twist in the story—it surprised me and was not what I would have predicted.

I thought that the writing was good—I really liked the character development of Elsa’s sons and the insider baseball of a middle school. It was a page-turner for me, and as someone who has to steal short periods of time throughout the day to read, I also appreciated the short chapters.

Thanks to the author for an ARC; what a great debut novel. Can’t wait to read more from her!!
Profile Image for Ellen Ross.
523 reviews60 followers
July 31, 2025
I received an advance review copy for free, and I am leaving this review voluntarily. Elsa is a teacher and a mother who has always been convinced her son was switched at birth. When she meets a student that looks like he could be her biological son she gets serious about getting to the bottom of it. The chaos and secrets in this book were heart wrenching and this plot was packed with all different emotions I felt as I read. What could happen to the son she thought was hers and has loved for all these years? This book grapple with impossible feelings and really had me pulled in and invested. The plot was genius to begin with but the way the characters were developed and interacted was beautifully done. This is a book to treasure forever.
Profile Image for Gemini.
1,702 reviews
January 15, 2026
Shut the Front Door

The switched at birth plot grabbed my attention. I was so invested in finding out if Bird was really Elsa’s son. I believed her theory. I was so heartbroken for her when the story of losing her first child was relayed. I can’t imagine leaving the hospital with an empty car seat. The story began to go in a direction I didn’t expect when the rumors about Elsa began to swell into a witch hunt. I really wanted the truth to come out then. When the real truth (not the one I suspected) came out, my jaw dropped. It bumped my rating up from 4 to 5 stars. This story was emotional, messy, and thought provoking. I loved it.
Profile Image for Edna Hull.
46 reviews1 follower
August 22, 2025
Initially when I began reading the book I was a bit confused however as the book continued and the prologue began making more sense , I was hooked on the book and I was so eager to finish the book to discover what will happen however the plot twist got me good . Overall a really good debut with a unique plot.
Profile Image for Missy.
2,193 reviews32 followers
December 31, 2025
Book #188 read in 2025

For 14 years, Elsa believes she brought home the wrong baby. She loves the son she brought home but when she meets Thomas, her math student who shares the same birthday as her son, Bird, she thinks she’s finally found her real baby boy.

This was a crazy, twisted tale that involved a lot of angst. In trying to determine if Thomas is actually her son, Elsa takes a lot of foolish risks with her job and her family, and it nearly costs her everything. But I’m not sure I blame her. I would want to know the truth too. Jiban wrote this in such a way that my heart was pounding at each intended point, just like Elsa’s. That ending twist made me gasp. I really look forward to what the author has in store for us next.

Thank you to Lake Union Publishing for the gifted review copy. All opinions are my own. This novel was published on December 2, 2025.
Profile Image for Kimberly.
76 reviews75 followers
November 24, 2025
This book drew me in from the first few pages, and I was eager to see what would happen next. Although the main character was complicated and sometimes frustrating, I connected with her emotions and motivations as a mother, which pulled me into her story. At first, I thought the book was simply about maternal intuition, but it turned out to be so much more. A surprising twist I didn’t see coming kept me turning the pages to see how everything would come together and how the MC would handle this new revelation. At just over 250 pages, this debut is both thought-provoking and engaging. It explores themes of mental health, child loss, and grief, making it both emotional and impactful. I highly recommend it to readers who, like me, enjoy exploring complex family relationships.
Profile Image for Ashley Tovar.
839 reviews2 followers
November 20, 2025
This book is packed with the sort of dry sarcastic humor that I absolutely love. Multiple parts of the book have a palpable underdone of eye rolling with a conspicuous smirk. Elsa is one of the most likable characters I’ve met in a long time, I found myself wishing I could crawl into the book & hang out with her. As for the plot it’s, both deep & simple. This book is so thought provoking & perfect for a book club to chat about!

Big thanks to Netgalley & the publisher for allowing me to enjoy this.
32 reviews2 followers
December 26, 2025
I like this book. I did get a little irritated at Elsa for being so dumb sometimes. I guess not dumb but so single minded that she could realize her predicament. I guess that was the whole point of the story. That grief can blind you to everything but the pain and loss.
Overall I would recommend.
115 reviews
December 24, 2025
Very good

Really interesting novel that keeps you reading long in the night. This is her first novel so I'll be waiting for her next book.
Profile Image for Kelsey Bink.
74 reviews
December 14, 2025
This book was really good! I had it on my TBR and it popped up on my Kindle Unlimited. It was a really good story about a mother struggling to connect with a son who she thinks is not hers. Elsa is a teacher and thinks she has found her son in the school she teaches at.

The ending of this book is definitely not one I saw coming! Such a good read!
Profile Image for Paloma.
572 reviews6 followers
December 3, 2025
Elsa strongly believes that her son is not hers and he was switched at birth. As a math teacher, she begins to notice that a student in her class shares the same birthday as her son. She begins to obsess over anything pertaining to her student. Trying to make that student her long lost son.


Thought provoking, heartbreaking and inconceivable are what I felt about this novel. I can feel Elsa's frustration and pain throughout the novel. I was sucked immediately into Elsa and her family drama. I was very invested in finding out if Elsa was right. I couldn't put this books down.

Thank you Netgalley and Lake Union Publishing for this eArc. All opinions are entirely my own.
34 reviews
December 6, 2025
A fun little read with a twist at the end that I probably should have seen coming but didn't. I cringed through the multiple saliva sections but other than that this was quite enjoyable.


Thanks to Brilliance Audio and NetGalley for the ARC.
Profile Image for Kristen.
340 reviews13 followers
September 8, 2025
Rarely do I cheat and skip ahead in a book to find out what happens, but this book had me so invested I had to peak before going back to finish it legit.

Great, unique, and gripping story that keeps you turning pages from the beginning. As a mother, I could feel the terror Elsa, the main character, felt thinking her baby had been switched from the beginning, No spoilers here, but the resolution of the mystery is a twist!

I appreciated the book’s focus on human connections. While I have not found myself in the same situation as Elsa I still identified with her challenges as a mother connecting with her kids, daughter feeling support from her mother, and woman, feeling misunderstood and sometimes disregarded.

Exciting debut novel from Minnesota author Cindy Jiban! Can’t wait to see more from her.
Profile Image for Arianna (ariannasreading).
138 reviews
December 4, 2025
The Probable Son by Cindy Jiban was one hell of a ride. With complex characters, a dark and twisty plot, and an emotional, perhaps at times unreliable narrator, I struggled to decide which side of the fence I was on right up until the bitter end. Absolutely worth the read.
Profile Image for Joel Haskard.
3 reviews1 follower
December 20, 2025
An excellent family drama with a complicated and fun main character. I totally liked Elsa, and was also often thinking, "oh man, I'm not sure that's a great idea..." A great read!
Profile Image for Bookaholic__Reviews.
1,236 reviews155 followers
December 3, 2025
3.5 rounded to 3.

The amount of saliva...gleek...whatever you want to call it was a bit too much for me. Eww. Honestly, If I never hear or read that word again it will still be too soon. Spit aside, the story has good bones and I think it's a solid enough debut.

I can't imagine believing that my child is not my own and then discovering another child that I believe is my actual birth child who was swapped at birth. When it comes to our FMC I honestly ping-ponged between feeling pity for her and being annoyed with some of her actions.

The ending ties everything into a very messy bow because there isn't a true resolution in my opinion. I couldn't just proceed with life as usual after the absolute shit show that went down. But you do you I guess.

I would definitely consider reading more from this author because she did manage to keep my attention and had me fully invested in these families. I also feel like the narrator has a great voice and was a solid pick for this role.

I received a copy in exchange for my honest review.
Profile Image for Kelly Courduff villanueva.
27 reviews1 follower
December 20, 2025
The premise is good the execution left something to be desired.
Elsa Vargas believes her son Bird isn’t really her’s but having suffered a mental break from her first born being still born she can’t convince others to entertain the idea. After finding out that an outgoing student named Thomas was born on the same day as Bird she becomes obsessed with the belief Thomas is her real son.
What could have been in interesting story of a woman’s obsession ends up being a muddled mess of Elsa trying to figure out how to use 23 and me type site to proves her beliefs, a civil liberties fight against a Boy Scouts type organization for forcing atheists say they believe in God, a small town pitch fork carrying crusade against Elsa first for using genetics in a math question and then for more insidious rumors, and a annoying holier then thou PTO presidents affair with the sleazy principal. All this topped with a unsatisfying ending made for a forgettable book.
311 reviews48 followers
December 17, 2025
Thank you to Lake Union Publishing company, Cindy Jiban, and netgalley for allowing me to read a copy. These opinions in my review are my my honest feedback. This book was confusing, to jumpy, and I feel it put educators in the wrong spotlight.
Profile Image for Jude (HeyJudeReads) Fricano.
563 reviews124 followers
February 8, 2026
Thank you @cindyjiban and @lakeunionauthors #partner for this copy of:

The Probable Son by Cindy Jiban
Published: 12/2/25

An expected story right until the end of an impossible situation. This tender story of identify, motherhood, community, siblings and expectations is full of emotion, sacrifice and family bonds. I found it well done, and hard to put down!
Displaying 1 - 30 of 91 reviews

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