The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump: What the Trade War Means for the World

by Philip Coggan

'One of the best new books on economics' - Financial Times

'This book is a tour de force' - David Miles, Professor of Financial Economics at Imperial College

Why the Trump tax is a disaster for the US and the world - from award-winning journalist Philip Coggan

Economic policy set at the whim of one man.

Tariffs up one day and down the next.

Businesses bewildered, consumers alarmed.

As Donald Trump wages his trade war, what will become of a global economy dependent on close trading links?

Leading financial journalist Philip Coggan lifts the lid on Trump's economic gamble, why it's a universal threat and how we can make sense of this new 'age of chaos'. This is his clear-sighted and powerful rallying cry in defence of global trade - and why it matters for the world.

Genres: Economics, Nonfiction, Politics

Kindle Edition

Published July 17, 2025

About the author

Philip Coggan is a British columnist and author of books on economics. He currently writes for The Economist. Previously, he worked for the Financial Times for 20 years.

Reviews

[Dory Donatelli · Rating 5 out of 5]

Excellent analysis. Love hearing an outside perspective on current American affairs

Shout out to the little old British lady on my flight who stopped in the aisle to chat with me about it

[Juliette Imbert · Rating 4 out of 5]

4.5 stars. I thought economics would bore me to death, but I was actually very engaged for most of the book. It’s excellently and clearly written - my one issue is that Coggan got a bit lost in technicalities especially at the beginning of the book, and I would have found those sections a lot easier to follow if he had explained certain economic terms (or just used a glossary/a few diagrams) rather than assuming economic knowledge in his reader.

Coggan does a really great job of dismantling arguments in favour of tariffs (hilarious analysis of the formula that was very badly used to calculate tariffs, resulting in a useless denominator of 1). He shows how utterly nonsensical tariffs are in the context of the international trade system - shifting sourcing back to the US is an overly simplistic and unattainable (at least in the short-term) goal that takes no account of the prohibitive costs and time commitment required (eg need to build new factories or retrain workers). Quoting Adam Posen: “it is wildly reckless not to ensure alternate suppliers or adequate domestic production before cutting off trade.” Effectively, Trump’s tariffs are a domestic tax on consumption: US consumers will end up having to pay more for the same goods, because domestic businesses will not be able to make all the necessary goods themselves in a timely fashion and so will continue to source goods from abroad - but they will be unable to absorb all the extra costs from the tariffs and will have to pass those costs on to consumers. That’s the best-case scenario. Worst-case scenario is the shutting down of certain US businesses and/or shortages of certain basic consumer goods in the US.

Coggan’s arguments are interspersed with wryly scathing one-liners, such as the quoting of a letter sent by the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America to the president: “[even if the industry wanted to shift sourcing back to the US] there is also a reciprocal tariff on the machinery and materials needed to make footwear in the US.” Lol. Further evidence that the tariff idea has not been thought through in the slightest: the idea that tariffs could reinvigorate the manufacturing sector in the US fails to consider the fact that automation, not trade, is the main raison for the slow decline in US manufacturing jobs over the past few decades.

Coggan argues that there is no correlation between the sluggish rise in US living standards and the trade deficit - rather, income inequality in the US is driven by domestic political choices that include minimal social intervention and spending (although sometimes he draws perhaps overly simplistic comparisons between countries).

He ends with a very interesting section on the loss of US soft power in the face of Trump’s erratic decisions - leading to a decline in tourism and declining sales of eg Tesla cars in Europe - and also argues that a loss of international investor confidence will lead to higher borrowing costs for the US government (via a spike in bond yields), which will trickle down to affect US companies and homeowners through their mortgages (and this issue will only be made worse by the administration’s decision to cut taxes for the rich, which in the past has only served to increase the budget deficit).

Coggan’s argument can essentially be summarised by this one very cheerful sentence on page 112: “Greater inequality will be one of the economic consequences of Mr Trump.”

[Joseph O’Connor · Rating 4 out of 5]

A concise account of the damage that the Trump administration is inflicting on the world. This shows that there is very little to be gained through high tariffs and so much to be lost, including soft power. The tariffs aren’t a way of generating more jobs or growing the American economy but a way of flexing his authoritarian muscles against smaller countries such as Lesotho that rely on importing to America. Cuts to Medicaid, food banks, and the tariffs that will be passed down to consumers will overwhelmingly affect lower and middle income families. I am not an economist so some of the more technical jargon slightly passed me by but a really interesting read.

[Thomas Ryan · Rating 5 out of 5]

A must read for all Americans. I read this in paperback form but reading it on a device would allow for highlighting the many important stats; for example the production of an iPhone depends on “187 suppliers across 28 countries”. Just a stunningly good and important book.

[Michael Van · Rating 4 out of 5]

Philip Coggan’s book is an engaging read. Coggan presents the key economic arguments against Trump’s trade policies in a clear and accessible way.

The difficulty lies in its intended audience. Those who are anti-trade and sympathetic to authoritarianism are unlikely to pick it up in the first place. Meanwhile, readers who are already pro-trade and anti-authoritarian may find they don’t really need this book at all.

[Adnda Ssm · Rating 5 out of 5]

An insightful summary of the impact of Trump’s trade policies on the US and the global economy. A few technical parts were challenging, but the book remains an interesting and informative read. I enjoyed the book.

[Bryony · Rating 5 out of 5]

A must read for anyone who is interested in current affairs and the going on in the world.

[Rashika · Rating 5 out of 5]

An excellent read! Very digestible, witty and truly insightful

[Oliver · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book is a good high level overview of why tarrifs are bad. It's useful for non economists but doesn't add much if you already know why tarrifs are bad.