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The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump: What the Trade War Means for the World
'One of the best new books on economics' - Financial Times
'This book is a tour de force' - David Miles, Professor of Financial Economics at Imperial College
Why the Trump tax is a disaster for the US and the world - from award-winning journalist Philip Coggan
Economic policy set at the whim of one man.
Tariffs up one day and down the next.
Businesses bewildered, consumers alarmed.
As Donald Trump wages his trade war, what will become of a global economy dependent on close trading links?
Leading financial journalist Philip Coggan lifts the lid on Trump's economic gamble, why it's a universal threat and how we can make sense of this new 'age of chaos'. This is his clear-sighted and powerful rallying cry in defence of global trade - and why it matters for the world.
'This book is a tour de force' - David Miles, Professor of Financial Economics at Imperial College
Why the Trump tax is a disaster for the US and the world - from award-winning journalist Philip Coggan
Economic policy set at the whim of one man.
Tariffs up one day and down the next.
Businesses bewildered, consumers alarmed.
As Donald Trump wages his trade war, what will become of a global economy dependent on close trading links?
Leading financial journalist Philip Coggan lifts the lid on Trump's economic gamble, why it's a universal threat and how we can make sense of this new 'age of chaos'. This is his clear-sighted and powerful rallying cry in defence of global trade - and why it matters for the world.
Kindle Edition
Published July 17, 2025
About the author
Philip Coggan
19 books29 followersPhilip Coggan is a British columnist and author of books on economics. He currently writes for The Economist. Previously, he worked for the Financial Times for 20 years.
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Displaying 1 - 21 of 21 reviews
November 2, 2025
4.5 stars. I thought economics would bore me to death, but I was actually very engaged for most of the book. It’s excellently and clearly written - my one issue is that Coggan got a bit lost in technicalities especially at the beginning of the book, and I would have found those sections a lot easier to follow if he had explained certain economic terms (or just used a glossary/a few diagrams) rather than assuming economic knowledge in his reader.
Coggan does a really great job of dismantling arguments in favour of tariffs (hilarious analysis of the formula that was very badly used to calculate tariffs, resulting in a useless denominator of 1). He shows how utterly nonsensical tariffs are in the context of the international trade system - shifting sourcing back to the US is an overly simplistic and unattainable (at least in the short-term) goal that takes no account of the prohibitive costs and time commitment required (eg need to build new factories or retrain workers). Quoting Adam Posen: “it is wildly reckless not to ensure alternate suppliers or adequate domestic production before cutting off trade.” Effectively, Trump’s tariffs are a domestic tax on consumption: US consumers will end up having to pay more for the same goods, because domestic businesses will not be able to make all the necessary goods themselves in a timely fashion and so will continue to source goods from abroad - but they will be unable to absorb all the extra costs from the tariffs and will have to pass those costs on to consumers. That’s the best-case scenario. Worst-case scenario is the shutting down of certain US businesses and/or shortages of certain basic consumer goods in the US.
Coggan’s arguments are interspersed with wryly scathing one-liners, such as the quoting of a letter sent by the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America to the president: “[even if the industry wanted to shift sourcing back to the US] there is also a reciprocal tariff on the machinery and materials needed to make footwear in the US.” Lol. Further evidence that the tariff idea has not been thought through in the slightest: the idea that tariffs could reinvigorate the manufacturing sector in the US fails to consider the fact that automation, not trade, is the main raison for the slow decline in US manufacturing jobs over the past few decades.
Coggan argues that there is no correlation between the sluggish rise in US living standards and the trade deficit - rather, income inequality in the US is driven by domestic political choices that include minimal social intervention and spending (although sometimes he draws perhaps overly simplistic comparisons between countries).
He ends with a very interesting section on the loss of US soft power in the face of Trump’s erratic decisions - leading to a decline in tourism and declining sales of eg Tesla cars in Europe - and also argues that a loss of international investor confidence will lead to higher borrowing costs for the US government (via a spike in bond yields), which will trickle down to affect US companies and homeowners through their mortgages (and this issue will only be made worse by the administration’s decision to cut taxes for the rich, which in the past has only served to increase the budget deficit).
Coggan’s argument can essentially be summarised by this one very cheerful sentence on page 112: “Greater inequality will be one of the economic consequences of Mr Trump.”
Coggan does a really great job of dismantling arguments in favour of tariffs (hilarious analysis of the formula that was very badly used to calculate tariffs, resulting in a useless denominator of 1). He shows how utterly nonsensical tariffs are in the context of the international trade system - shifting sourcing back to the US is an overly simplistic and unattainable (at least in the short-term) goal that takes no account of the prohibitive costs and time commitment required (eg need to build new factories or retrain workers). Quoting Adam Posen: “it is wildly reckless not to ensure alternate suppliers or adequate domestic production before cutting off trade.” Effectively, Trump’s tariffs are a domestic tax on consumption: US consumers will end up having to pay more for the same goods, because domestic businesses will not be able to make all the necessary goods themselves in a timely fashion and so will continue to source goods from abroad - but they will be unable to absorb all the extra costs from the tariffs and will have to pass those costs on to consumers. That’s the best-case scenario. Worst-case scenario is the shutting down of certain US businesses and/or shortages of certain basic consumer goods in the US.
Coggan’s arguments are interspersed with wryly scathing one-liners, such as the quoting of a letter sent by the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America to the president: “[even if the industry wanted to shift sourcing back to the US] there is also a reciprocal tariff on the machinery and materials needed to make footwear in the US.” Lol. Further evidence that the tariff idea has not been thought through in the slightest: the idea that tariffs could reinvigorate the manufacturing sector in the US fails to consider the fact that automation, not trade, is the main raison for the slow decline in US manufacturing jobs over the past few decades.
Coggan argues that there is no correlation between the sluggish rise in US living standards and the trade deficit - rather, income inequality in the US is driven by domestic political choices that include minimal social intervention and spending (although sometimes he draws perhaps overly simplistic comparisons between countries).
He ends with a very interesting section on the loss of US soft power in the face of Trump’s erratic decisions - leading to a decline in tourism and declining sales of eg Tesla cars in Europe - and also argues that a loss of international investor confidence will lead to higher borrowing costs for the US government (via a spike in bond yields), which will trickle down to affect US companies and homeowners through their mortgages (and this issue will only be made worse by the administration’s decision to cut taxes for the rich, which in the past has only served to increase the budget deficit).
Coggan’s argument can essentially be summarised by this one very cheerful sentence on page 112: “Greater inequality will be one of the economic consequences of Mr Trump.”
August 1, 2025
Excellent analysis. Love hearing an outside perspective on current American affairs
Shout out to the little old British lady on my flight who stopped in the aisle to chat with me about it
Shout out to the little old British lady on my flight who stopped in the aisle to chat with me about it
August 13, 2025
A concise account of the damage that the Trump administration is inflicting on the world. This shows that there is very little to be gained through high tariffs and so much to be lost, including soft power. The tariffs aren’t a way of generating more jobs or growing the American economy but a way of flexing his authoritarian muscles against smaller countries such as Lesotho that rely on importing to America. Cuts to Medicaid, food banks, and the tariffs that will be passed down to consumers will overwhelmingly affect lower and middle income families. I am not an economist so some of the more technical jargon slightly passed me by but a really interesting read.
September 27, 2025
A must read for all Americans. I read this in paperback form but reading it on a device would allow for highlighting the many important stats; for example the production of an iPhone depends on “187 suppliers across 28 countries”. Just a stunningly good and important book.
March 30, 2026
Short, sharp, quick and interesting.
February 7, 2026
I’ve been wanting to know more about tariffs and this book has answered what I’ve been wondering about and yeah it’s a good read
July 17, 2025
A must read for anyone who is interested in current affairs and the going on in the world.
August 22, 2025
An excellent read! Very digestible, witty and truly insightful
Read
July 17, 2026'Apart from all the failed businesses, lost jobs, goods shortages, hits to consumer and business confidence, weakening of the relationship with key allies and decline of the US's international reputation, Trump has a brilliant plan.'
Exactly one year ago Coggan released this pamphlet of the high crimes and misdemeanours done by Trump on the US economy. In it, he neatly and effectively captures the economic policy of the Trump administration, a task he considered as difficult as 'nailing jelly on a wall,' while outlining their negative effects on the economy along with the statistics and expertise that support the idea of Trump's absent fiscal knowledge.
Coggan reminds us of the first 100 days of FDR, a man who at least did his most earnest, and the legislature he passed deep in the entrenchment of the Great Depression and the Smoot-Hawley Act by Hoover, which I have mapped out in the margins (no order): Economy Act, Banking Act, Civilian Conservation Corps, Agricultural Adjustment Administration, Federal Emergency Relief Administration, Emergency Farm Mortgage, Tennessee Valley Authority, Securities, Glass-Steagal Act, National Industrial Recovery Act... etc.
Along with this, he gives us a list of notable dates in the history of Trump's war on the economy, such as 1 February (Trump announces 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada alone with 10% on China), 12 March (25% on all steel / aluminum imports), 26 March (25% tariffs on all cars and car parts), 30 May (doubled tariffs on steel / aluminum, a total of 50%), and most importantly 2 April (minimum 10% tariff on all countries except Russia and North Korea, known as the 'trade package') and 9 April (a raise on the Chinese tariff to 145% which was lowered to 30% on China with the Chinese implementing a 10% tariff on the US).
With this great bit of information, we are now primed for unveiling the devious economic journey of Trump's presidency since his inauguration. Coggan explains the formula used to calculate the 2 April trade package which the American Enterprise Institute claimed had 'no foundation in either economic theory or law:' dividing the country's trade balance by the exports of a certain country. This ingenious formula was used to calculate the right amount of tariffs imposed on each country which, to mathematics' demise, his team did not account for elasticity nor logic, and his tariffs were four times higher than calculated. Coggan illustrates how destructive this idiotic math was by presenting the tariff on Bangladesh, a whopping 37% suffocation. Not only did the formula impose abnormal and absurd tariffs for countries who did not deserve such violating, he even tariffed two uninhabited islands, which was followed by Howard Lutnick's coping: 'the islands could be used by foreign countries against America.'
Coggan explains how in the same amount of time it took to devise that formula, which research approximated to be three hours, the administration also began defunding and dissolving civil services and deporting immigrants. Coggan also reminds us trade agreements are not supposed to be hastily made, 'slapdash;' yet speed rather than agility is the motto of the Trump agency. This is proven by the general maxim of the tariff philosophy, that it will make up for the lost money in taxes. It is simply impossible; even an expert later in the book claims to the extent of which the tariff is being used to satisfy macroeconomic ideals, it is aimless and . Instead of having any considerable good qualities they are loaded with disturbing consequences, such as the aftermath of the S&P 500 after 2 April resulting in a total loss of $5tn ($15,000 per US citizen).
Falling share prices, falling bond prices, falling currency. It's no wonder that US producers and consumers are at an all-time apathy, Coggan explaining how businesses planning to increase capital spending dropping 39% individuals in January to just 2% in April. Grim hastings for the American economy: a love for mercantilism and a vendetta against specialization and globalization makes an effective recipe for a desperate, soon-to-be struggling market (as if the US people didn't suffer enough from the ethical aspects of these policies). It seems, after all, that protectionism is what the United States boils down to.
The greatest part of Trump's policy is its irony. His increasing tariffs, erratic behaviour, and worrying arithmetic are beyond troubling for the reputation of the United States and even more disappointing to the people who actually thought he was going to bring back manufacturing jobs and strictly MURICAN products, for the state of America has been so bizarre that many countries have started looking to China for trading opportunities as America continues to prove itself unfit for basic economic principles and manners. Even greater: it's not the government that pays for the trouble ensued by excessive tariffs. Business owners, independent workers, and un/skilled labourers have to share the burden of responsibility with Trump's maltreatment of the economy, almost like global trade is interconnected and countries rely on each other for materials, meaning that all American producers use foreign products, meaning all American producers pay the increased tariffed amount. Funnier: the tariff reparations were paid with the money accumulated by tariffs.
I could go on... but it's really worth buying the book. For the price, it's resourceful, knowledgeable and written with an enjoyable, informed hand. All the more proof that the Trump administration runs entirely on vibes.
Exactly one year ago Coggan released this pamphlet of the high crimes and misdemeanours done by Trump on the US economy. In it, he neatly and effectively captures the economic policy of the Trump administration, a task he considered as difficult as 'nailing jelly on a wall,' while outlining their negative effects on the economy along with the statistics and expertise that support the idea of Trump's absent fiscal knowledge.
Coggan reminds us of the first 100 days of FDR, a man who at least did his most earnest, and the legislature he passed deep in the entrenchment of the Great Depression and the Smoot-Hawley Act by Hoover, which I have mapped out in the margins (no order): Economy Act, Banking Act, Civilian Conservation Corps, Agricultural Adjustment Administration, Federal Emergency Relief Administration, Emergency Farm Mortgage, Tennessee Valley Authority, Securities, Glass-Steagal Act, National Industrial Recovery Act... etc.
Along with this, he gives us a list of notable dates in the history of Trump's war on the economy, such as 1 February (Trump announces 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada alone with 10% on China), 12 March (25% on all steel / aluminum imports), 26 March (25% tariffs on all cars and car parts), 30 May (doubled tariffs on steel / aluminum, a total of 50%), and most importantly 2 April (minimum 10% tariff on all countries except Russia and North Korea, known as the 'trade package') and 9 April (a raise on the Chinese tariff to 145% which was lowered to 30% on China with the Chinese implementing a 10% tariff on the US).
With this great bit of information, we are now primed for unveiling the devious economic journey of Trump's presidency since his inauguration. Coggan explains the formula used to calculate the 2 April trade package which the American Enterprise Institute claimed had 'no foundation in either economic theory or law:' dividing the country's trade balance by the exports of a certain country. This ingenious formula was used to calculate the right amount of tariffs imposed on each country which, to mathematics' demise, his team did not account for elasticity nor logic, and his tariffs were four times higher than calculated. Coggan illustrates how destructive this idiotic math was by presenting the tariff on Bangladesh, a whopping 37% suffocation. Not only did the formula impose abnormal and absurd tariffs for countries who did not deserve such violating, he even tariffed two uninhabited islands, which was followed by Howard Lutnick's coping: 'the islands could be used by foreign countries against America.'
Coggan explains how in the same amount of time it took to devise that formula, which research approximated to be three hours, the administration also began defunding and dissolving civil services and deporting immigrants. Coggan also reminds us trade agreements are not supposed to be hastily made, 'slapdash;' yet speed rather than agility is the motto of the Trump agency. This is proven by the general maxim of the tariff philosophy, that it will make up for the lost money in taxes. It is simply impossible; even an expert later in the book claims to the extent of which the tariff is being used to satisfy macroeconomic ideals, it is aimless and . Instead of having any considerable good qualities they are loaded with disturbing consequences, such as the aftermath of the S&P 500 after 2 April resulting in a total loss of $5tn ($15,000 per US citizen).
Falling share prices, falling bond prices, falling currency. It's no wonder that US producers and consumers are at an all-time apathy, Coggan explaining how businesses planning to increase capital spending dropping 39% individuals in January to just 2% in April. Grim hastings for the American economy: a love for mercantilism and a vendetta against specialization and globalization makes an effective recipe for a desperate, soon-to-be struggling market (as if the US people didn't suffer enough from the ethical aspects of these policies). It seems, after all, that protectionism is what the United States boils down to.
The greatest part of Trump's policy is its irony. His increasing tariffs, erratic behaviour, and worrying arithmetic are beyond troubling for the reputation of the United States and even more disappointing to the people who actually thought he was going to bring back manufacturing jobs and strictly MURICAN products, for the state of America has been so bizarre that many countries have started looking to China for trading opportunities as America continues to prove itself unfit for basic economic principles and manners. Even greater: it's not the government that pays for the trouble ensued by excessive tariffs. Business owners, independent workers, and un/skilled labourers have to share the burden of responsibility with Trump's maltreatment of the economy, almost like global trade is interconnected and countries rely on each other for materials, meaning that all American producers use foreign products, meaning all American producers pay the increased tariffed amount. Funnier: the tariff reparations were paid with the money accumulated by tariffs.
I could go on... but it's really worth buying the book. For the price, it's resourceful, knowledgeable and written with an enjoyable, informed hand. All the more proof that the Trump administration runs entirely on vibes.
August 28, 2026
Hace falta aclarar que este libro lo compre en Londres hace un año exacto que estaba todo el bollo de trade war y Trump. Medio intente leerlo pero no sabia exactamente porque nunca había visto economía en la universidad. Puedo decir que gracias a Macro y Global Economic Environment lo entendí bien!
Ahora en contenido es muy heavy su POV como tan radical anti-trump, lo cual es ironico porque todo el mundo le votó a el por como habia hecho subir el stock, bond y las empresas, teniendo un gobierno republicano de la misma línea de Ronald Reagan o George Bush. Pero en esta segunda presidencia que no puede reeligirse, es otra persona totalmente diferente. Lo que interprete que era que Trump estaba gobernando para lo que fue USA en los años 50-60s. Hoy en el 2026, es otro juego interno así como un new world trade order sacandolo de Ray Dalio.
Gran libro.
Ahora en contenido es muy heavy su POV como tan radical anti-trump, lo cual es ironico porque todo el mundo le votó a el por como habia hecho subir el stock, bond y las empresas, teniendo un gobierno republicano de la misma línea de Ronald Reagan o George Bush. Pero en esta segunda presidencia que no puede reeligirse, es otra persona totalmente diferente. Lo que interprete que era que Trump estaba gobernando para lo que fue USA en los años 50-60s. Hoy en el 2026, es otro juego interno así como un new world trade order sacandolo de Ray Dalio.
Gran libro.
September 22, 2025
Philip Coggan’s book is an engaging read. Coggan presents the key economic arguments against Trump’s trade policies in a clear and accessible way.
The difficulty lies in its intended audience. Those who are anti-trade and sympathetic to authoritarianism are unlikely to pick it up in the first place. Meanwhile, readers who are already pro-trade and anti-authoritarian may find they don’t really need this book at all.
The difficulty lies in its intended audience. Those who are anti-trade and sympathetic to authoritarianism are unlikely to pick it up in the first place. Meanwhile, readers who are already pro-trade and anti-authoritarian may find they don’t really need this book at all.
January 5, 2026
A good, readable, concise treatment of the Trump tariffs and their stupidity. If you have kept up with political and economic news over the past year, then there won't be much that is new in this book. But it is still worth reading if you want the entire anti-tariff argument concisely laid out by a good, knowledgeable author. Trump changes economic and tariff policy almost daily, but the thesis of the book is still relevant and is not dated.
October 8, 2026
a bit fluffed up with general economic history, otherwise it points at some relevant aspects of Trump's leadership...he's terrible.
i felt that a lot more could have been said about Trump on the topic though. oh, well, as they say, every little bit counts.
i felt that a lot more could have been said about Trump on the topic though. oh, well, as they say, every little bit counts.
December 2, 2025
This book is a good high level overview of why tarrifs are bad. It's useful for non economists but doesn't add much if you already know why tarrifs are bad.
February 1, 2026
read this for an essay but was actually an enjoyable read (or as enjoyable as the depressing economic state of the world rn can be)
March 4, 2026
Informative and concise
March 11, 2026
very relevant
April 20, 2026
Funny and informational book about more ways mr trump sucksss
October 30, 2026
So relevant and, sadly, proven to be absolutely prophetic. Trump's economic policies have been devastating for the US and the world.
December 31, 2025
Hint: they're not good. Worth reading if you want a quick explanation of the negative impact of Trump's economic plan.
March 18, 2026
hugely recommend this but I won’t pretend this is an easy bedtime read.
packs a lot into a relatively short book, explaining some of the basics well but helps to have familiarity with standard macro concepts. a little repetitive in the middle alas my hiatus in reading but the last two chapters bring it back nicely.
also some great stats that should be a lesson to all; individuals have more power than you think, from what you buy to where you travel.
sadly the people that need to read this either won’t or wouldn’t understand it even if they did but even just the final page with its comparison of trump to a monty python sketch and as an example of the dunning-kruger effect at its most sinister, perfectly sums up trumps legacy.
packs a lot into a relatively short book, explaining some of the basics well but helps to have familiarity with standard macro concepts. a little repetitive in the middle alas my hiatus in reading but the last two chapters bring it back nicely.
also some great stats that should be a lesson to all; individuals have more power than you think, from what you buy to where you travel.
sadly the people that need to read this either won’t or wouldn’t understand it even if they did but even just the final page with its comparison of trump to a monty python sketch and as an example of the dunning-kruger effect at its most sinister, perfectly sums up trumps legacy.
Displaying 1 - 21 of 21 reviews