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No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends
Our intuition on how the world works could well be wrong. We are surprised when new competitors burst on the scene, or businesses protected by large and deep moats find their defenses easily breached, or vast new markets are conjured from nothing. Trend lines resemble saw-tooth mountain ridges.
The world not only feels different. The data tell us it is different. Based on years of research by the directors of the McKinsey Global Institute, No Ordinary The Four Forces Breaking all the Trends is a timely and important analysis of how we need to reset our intuition as a result of four forces colliding and transforming the global the rise of emerging markets, the accelerating impact of technology on the natural forces of market competition, an aging world population, and accelerating flows of trade, capital and people.
Our intuitions formed during a uniquely benign period for the world economy—often termed the Great Moderation. Asset prices were rising, cost of capital was falling, labour and resources were abundant, and generation after generation was growing up more prosperous than their parents.
But the Great Moderation has gone. The cost of capital may rise. The price of everything from grain to steel may become more volatile. The world's labor force could shrink. Individuals, particularly those with low job skills, are at risk of growing up poorer than their parents.
What sets No Ordinary Disruption apart is depth of analysis combined with lively writing informed by surprising, memorable insights that enable us to quickly grasp the disruptive forces at work. For evidence of the shift to emerging markets, consider the startling fact that, by 2025, a single regional city in China—Tianjin—will have a GDP equal to that of the Sweden, of that, in the decades ahead, half of the world's economic growth will come
from 440 cities including Kumasi in Ghana or Santa Carina in Brazil that most executives today would be hard-pressed to locate on a map.
What we are now seeing is no ordinary disruption but the new facts of business life— facts that require executives and leaders at all levels to reset their operating assumptions and management intuition.
The world not only feels different. The data tell us it is different. Based on years of research by the directors of the McKinsey Global Institute, No Ordinary The Four Forces Breaking all the Trends is a timely and important analysis of how we need to reset our intuition as a result of four forces colliding and transforming the global the rise of emerging markets, the accelerating impact of technology on the natural forces of market competition, an aging world population, and accelerating flows of trade, capital and people.
Our intuitions formed during a uniquely benign period for the world economy—often termed the Great Moderation. Asset prices were rising, cost of capital was falling, labour and resources were abundant, and generation after generation was growing up more prosperous than their parents.
But the Great Moderation has gone. The cost of capital may rise. The price of everything from grain to steel may become more volatile. The world's labor force could shrink. Individuals, particularly those with low job skills, are at risk of growing up poorer than their parents.
What sets No Ordinary Disruption apart is depth of analysis combined with lively writing informed by surprising, memorable insights that enable us to quickly grasp the disruptive forces at work. For evidence of the shift to emerging markets, consider the startling fact that, by 2025, a single regional city in China—Tianjin—will have a GDP equal to that of the Sweden, of that, in the decades ahead, half of the world's economic growth will come
from 440 cities including Kumasi in Ghana or Santa Carina in Brazil that most executives today would be hard-pressed to locate on a map.
What we are now seeing is no ordinary disruption but the new facts of business life— facts that require executives and leaders at all levels to reset their operating assumptions and management intuition.
288 pages, Hardcover
First published May 12, 2015
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 46 reviews
December 5, 2015
I've got mixed feelings about this one. While it begins with a bang, explaining how disruption is all around us and coming from unexpected quarters, in the latter part it falls into a familiar trap of viewing everything from slightly dated lenses.
It is no secret that the world is changing. Rapidly. A lot of the younger people in the world come from Asia and Africa. Manufacturing is beginning to move to these shores as well.
However, I don't think the book offers something too 'different' from what detailed analyses and fact-finding missions have already presented to us in the recent past.
Also, a minor quirk - Moore's law is wrongly referenced. Moore only mentioned transistors. It was Intel's David House who said what is mentioned in the book.
Worth reading, but definitely not among my favourite reads of the year.
It is no secret that the world is changing. Rapidly. A lot of the younger people in the world come from Asia and Africa. Manufacturing is beginning to move to these shores as well.
However, I don't think the book offers something too 'different' from what detailed analyses and fact-finding missions have already presented to us in the recent past.
Also, a minor quirk - Moore's law is wrongly referenced. Moore only mentioned transistors. It was Intel's David House who said what is mentioned in the book.
Worth reading, but definitely not among my favourite reads of the year.
January 15, 2019
On Cyber Monday, December 1, 2014 Americans spent $2.65 billion on line. In November that same year on China’s Singles Day, one on line company, Alibaba recorded sales of $9.3 billion.
No Ordinary Disruption covers four changes that are occurring in the world economy:
-The rise of emerging markets on a scale never before encountered
-The global aging population
-The speed of technological advancements
-The cross border flow of people, goods, capital and ideas
The authors are directors for the McKinsey business consulting group, so their pitch is directed towards the way businesses should and must prepare themselves in order to survive in an uncertain future. It’s a worthwhile read for anyone who is interested in getting a glimpse of what the future holds in store. I enjoyed the first part of the book the best. Our intuition of the world is outdated and the new consumer class (all 3 billion of them) are going to upset the apple cart and eat our lunch unless we pay attention.
No Ordinary Disruption covers four changes that are occurring in the world economy:
-The rise of emerging markets on a scale never before encountered
-The global aging population
-The speed of technological advancements
-The cross border flow of people, goods, capital and ideas
The authors are directors for the McKinsey business consulting group, so their pitch is directed towards the way businesses should and must prepare themselves in order to survive in an uncertain future. It’s a worthwhile read for anyone who is interested in getting a glimpse of what the future holds in store. I enjoyed the first part of the book the best. Our intuition of the world is outdated and the new consumer class (all 3 billion of them) are going to upset the apple cart and eat our lunch unless we pay attention.
October 2, 2015
The book makes some good points about cities that aren't well known being large parts of the economy there are serious issues however.
The authors misstate Moore's Law as doubling of processing power every 18 months. It actually refers to the number of transistors.
The authors fail to include the fact that that the human genome sequencing accelerated during the Human Genome Project and beat original estimates by a large margin. The speed of increase in genome sequencing makes more sense when you consider how fast the research scale project moved let alone how much faster commercial scale is.
The authors also forgot to mention several precursors to the iPhone (Palm Pilot and other PDAs) again failing to place enough data points on the curve.
The authors misstate Moore's Law as doubling of processing power every 18 months. It actually refers to the number of transistors.
The authors fail to include the fact that that the human genome sequencing accelerated during the Human Genome Project and beat original estimates by a large margin. The speed of increase in genome sequencing makes more sense when you consider how fast the research scale project moved let alone how much faster commercial scale is.
The authors also forgot to mention several precursors to the iPhone (Palm Pilot and other PDAs) again failing to place enough data points on the curve.
November 3, 2015
I believe this was recommended by The Economist but I'm not sure it says anything profound and certainly not one of their better recommendations. The premise of the book is everyone in the world is moving to cities, fertility rates are falling and populations are aging, technology and networking are making us more productive. Ok that's fine, but surely everyone knows these facts. This book could be useful to anybody in business. However, if any of the things in this book are a shock to you business is probably not your thing.
February 29, 2016
Unfortunately I have to go with 1 star for this book. My issue is that while it's well written, it simply doesn't offer anything new. Anyone involved in business today or who even watches the news can intuitively arrive at the same findings the author does in this book.
April 13, 2021
Business focused, but not at a useful level. Would be more accurately titled "A list of numbers for current trends." The author also falls for such classics as over-estimating current technological change trends and underestimating conservative social/physical forces (Expert Political Judgement), and dismissing "anomalies" and making no mention of possible unforeseen events such as pandemic, seas rising, or something we haven't even thought of (The Black Swan).
February 3, 2025
Conclusion was only good.
June 7, 2015
Essential reading. Clear arguments and supporting data about why we are entering a period of massive changes in the world.
February 22, 2016
Read this for work. Some interesting ideas about disruptive global forces, but could be summed up in a 10 page paper rather than a 200 page book.
March 4, 2018
I want to give it 3.6 stars but it’s not possible. Interesting book, many exemples and rich data. It’s a wake up call attempt for corporations, gvts, ordinary ppl.
The main idea is that those forces aren’t new but how big and fast they are going is quite bit alarming.
Under the Lines we could notice the Mackenzie Institute bias opinion about China and the big corporations.
The authors missed the black swan event which is the geopolitical disruption. The impact of climate change was also missing in the book. They didn’t mention the inequality in opportunities that is now inherited from generation to generation.the wealth gap between classes didn’t seem to be a big concern for the authors. Additionally, they didn’t elaborate enough about the Future of work and the risk of higher rates of unemployment. Overall, I think that the description of the four disruptive forces was too dramatic.
The Analysis was interesting but I would say that the prescription was mundane, nothing new, anyone can come up with those vague solutions.
The main idea is that those forces aren’t new but how big and fast they are going is quite bit alarming.
Under the Lines we could notice the Mackenzie Institute bias opinion about China and the big corporations.
The authors missed the black swan event which is the geopolitical disruption. The impact of climate change was also missing in the book. They didn’t mention the inequality in opportunities that is now inherited from generation to generation.the wealth gap between classes didn’t seem to be a big concern for the authors. Additionally, they didn’t elaborate enough about the Future of work and the risk of higher rates of unemployment. Overall, I think that the description of the four disruptive forces was too dramatic.
The Analysis was interesting but I would say that the prescription was mundane, nothing new, anyone can come up with those vague solutions.
June 6, 2019
The book is discussing that any future business disruption will rely upon one of four factors:
1- Utilizing the growth of urbanization - where country side will shrink versus huge growth of urban communities,
2- Acceleration of technology changes,
3- Change of world population demographics as more elder will dominate the workforce in near future,
4- Much more connected world in terms of people and IoT.
I agree with above points. The book provides an overview of future trends of disruption on Macro level (high level directions). But the book did not dig into more details on how to build business models utilizing those trends. However, the book is full of case studies that worth reading. It is worth reading to be connected with other books discussing business disruption.
1- Utilizing the growth of urbanization - where country side will shrink versus huge growth of urban communities,
2- Acceleration of technology changes,
3- Change of world population demographics as more elder will dominate the workforce in near future,
4- Much more connected world in terms of people and IoT.
I agree with above points. The book provides an overview of future trends of disruption on Macro level (high level directions). But the book did not dig into more details on how to build business models utilizing those trends. However, the book is full of case studies that worth reading. It is worth reading to be connected with other books discussing business disruption.
July 19, 2020
Dobbs breathless recounts how global trends are tripping up business leaders and companies with an ethnocentric American or European focus.
Why I started this book: New audio from my library Overdrive that looked interesting.
Why I finished it: Published in 2015, a lot of this information feels dated since it was dealing with the 2008 crisis. To be fair 2020 will make a lot of books, especially prediction books feel dated. People are moving to cities, cities are growing faster than ever, so look for newer midsize cities in China and Africa playing a huge economic role in the coming years. The population is aging, capital liquidity will change... basic.
Why I started this book: New audio from my library Overdrive that looked interesting.
Why I finished it: Published in 2015, a lot of this information feels dated since it was dealing with the 2008 crisis. To be fair 2020 will make a lot of books, especially prediction books feel dated. People are moving to cities, cities are growing faster than ever, so look for newer midsize cities in China and Africa playing a huge economic role in the coming years. The population is aging, capital liquidity will change... basic.
July 12, 2019
I listened to the unabridged audiobook. While much of the work was interesting in discussing global trends and disruptive technologies, the middle of the book dealt with strategies and techniques whose jargon might have made sense to an MBA. It lost me.
It sounded like a “self help” book for large corporations and start ups. I’d do better with the likes of Fareed Zakaria, who has the optimism of these authors, but can explain it to somebody who never went to business school.
It sounded like a “self help” book for large corporations and start ups. I’d do better with the likes of Fareed Zakaria, who has the optimism of these authors, but can explain it to somebody who never went to business school.
September 21, 2020
I was aware that this is a time of drastic technological and social change. Yet, I had no idea of the full depth and dimension of the elements that are clashing in today’s world economy. As a matter of fact, one of the biggest takeaways from this book is that the quantitative dimension of these changes is simply incomprehensibly large for our mind to grasp. That being said, at times the book felt too data-dense and I believe that it could have benefited from a more narrative angle.
September 16, 2021
A futurist look, based on years of research by the directors of the McKinsey Global Institute, at what might disrupt the global market and workforce in the not-so-distant future. This text often reads like an undergrad economic textbook with minor bits of speculation scattered about but it does present some interesting thought points. Worth the read and thought experiments it generates.
May 7, 2017
Yes, the book reads like it was written by a bunch of McKinsey consultants (because it was), but it offers tremendous insights into how the future is unfolding before our eyes and what disruptions we'll have to contend with now and in the years to come.
March 11, 2018
A brief review of what is to come/has come in terms of technology. And their impacts on how companies are, how people work etc.
October 11, 2020
Fantastic read to understand the global forces business owners, governments, executives and consumers must be aware of and prepared for in the economy we are in. Highly recommend.
March 18, 2021
This book was okay - I think it’s just dated. Still relevant but not revolutionary.
August 28, 2021
Painfully cliche, when not outright tone-deaf. Not worth reading.
January 14, 2022
"It was ok " is a good description.
For me the issue was that the content, while true, would have been more useful in 2015 when the book came out than in 2022.
For me the issue was that the content, while true, would have been more useful in 2015 when the book came out than in 2022.
November 7, 2023
Abandoned at 60%
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February 28, 2017Location: PTI IRC
Accession No: DL028850
Accession No: DL028850
August 12, 2016
Saya baca buku ini karena rekomendasi dari Prof. Rhenald Kasali di kelas "Change Management" (bisa diakses di IndonesiaX). Bagian depannya sih bagus. Gagasannya menarik, yaitu bahwa memang perubahan di dunia ini banyak didasari oleh empat hal yang dibahas di buku ini. Dengan common sense saja, kita tentu bisa lihat bahwa dunia ini mengalami perubahan. Semakin lama, perubahan-perubahan ini menjadi semakin cepat terjadi.
Adapun empat hal yang dimaksud adalah:
1. Perubahan demografi warga negara dengan usia kerja produktif (kalau dilihat dari skor demografinya, jelas bahwa beberapa negara akan mendapatkan kesulitan untuk memperoleh tenaga kerja produktif. Sebaliknya, Indonesia termasuk negara yang akan mendapatkan bonus demografi karena banyaknya warga negara yang berada di usia produktif).
2. Pergeseran pusat perdagangan (urbanisasi dan berbagai perpindahan lainnya telah membuat negara-negara yang sebelumnya tidak terduga telah menjadi pusat dari perdagangan dunia. Siapa sih di abad sebelumnya yang bisa menduga bahwa roket luar angkasa yang murah itu akan diproduksi di India dan China, dengan kualitas yang baik?)
3. Kemajuan teknologi (semakin maju teknologi, maka semakin cepat juga pertukaran informasi yang ada. Ditambah lagi, teknologi yang baru terus membuat kita bisa memasuki area yang sebelumnya tidak terbayangkan oleh kita).
4. Global Interconnectivity (sekarang siapa yang sudah tidak terhubung dengan orang lain? Tiap negara sudah saling bergantung dengan negara lainnya... bahkan cukup banyak yang memberikan pekerjaan yang bisa dilakukan oleh warga negara lain... di negara asalnya sendiri).
Tapi bagian belakangnya terasa kurang menarik. Kebanyakan kontennya terasa terlalu banyak membahas dari sudut pandang makro(ekonomi), sehingga kurang terasa manfaatnya kecuali jika memang dibaca oleh policy maker.
Overall ini bacaan yang lumayan lah untuk dapat gambaran secara umum mengenai perubahan yang terjadi dalam skala makro. Tapi kalau butuh insight atau wawasan dalam skala yang lebih kecil, mungkin lebih cocok baca buku yang lain.
Adapun empat hal yang dimaksud adalah:
1. Perubahan demografi warga negara dengan usia kerja produktif (kalau dilihat dari skor demografinya, jelas bahwa beberapa negara akan mendapatkan kesulitan untuk memperoleh tenaga kerja produktif. Sebaliknya, Indonesia termasuk negara yang akan mendapatkan bonus demografi karena banyaknya warga negara yang berada di usia produktif).
2. Pergeseran pusat perdagangan (urbanisasi dan berbagai perpindahan lainnya telah membuat negara-negara yang sebelumnya tidak terduga telah menjadi pusat dari perdagangan dunia. Siapa sih di abad sebelumnya yang bisa menduga bahwa roket luar angkasa yang murah itu akan diproduksi di India dan China, dengan kualitas yang baik?)
3. Kemajuan teknologi (semakin maju teknologi, maka semakin cepat juga pertukaran informasi yang ada. Ditambah lagi, teknologi yang baru terus membuat kita bisa memasuki area yang sebelumnya tidak terbayangkan oleh kita).
4. Global Interconnectivity (sekarang siapa yang sudah tidak terhubung dengan orang lain? Tiap negara sudah saling bergantung dengan negara lainnya... bahkan cukup banyak yang memberikan pekerjaan yang bisa dilakukan oleh warga negara lain... di negara asalnya sendiri).
Tapi bagian belakangnya terasa kurang menarik. Kebanyakan kontennya terasa terlalu banyak membahas dari sudut pandang makro(ekonomi), sehingga kurang terasa manfaatnya kecuali jika memang dibaca oleh policy maker.
Overall ini bacaan yang lumayan lah untuk dapat gambaran secara umum mengenai perubahan yang terjadi dalam skala makro. Tapi kalau butuh insight atau wawasan dalam skala yang lebih kecil, mungkin lebih cocok baca buku yang lain.
September 17, 2016
The book substantiates with data what you may intuitively know already: emerging markets are growing, technology is disrupting the world, global population is aging, and the world is becoming increasingly connected. If you are looking for interesting stories or literary prose, stay away. If you are looking for facts and numbers to prove these trends, discover exactly where to go looking for the next big change (Kumasi or Tianjin; 3D printing or genomics), and find out when and how much of a change to expect, then this is probably for you.
December 6, 2015
Well written book by a couple McKinsey partners describing the likely and potential after effects of 8-10 mega trends / disruptions already occurring in the world. The beginning chapter or two and the concluding sections are a great summary read if you want to avoid a lot of the academia research process nuances they explain. Trickle down effects like how the proliferation of certain technologies, including social media, are positively lifting the economic standards of living for many "third world" (by today's definition) into legitimate global commerce players. Fascinating read if you're interested in vision casting. The strongest message takeaway for me was the need, almost the imperative, to be willing to cast away business leaders' intuition in decision making given the incredibly accelerated pace of global change. Including rational logic based reasons why it's necessary to do so for business survival. At times a little too heady for me but I'm very glad someone's thinking these thoughts and that they're coming from firms such as McKinsey and Accenture and PWC - since they have extraordinary influence to make things happen with their business clients.
March 13, 2025
Books I read generally fall into one of two categories: ones that entertain me and those that educate me. This book, however, did both of that AND helped my agency team win a couple of new business accounts!
A timely read in the middle of a pandemic, the four global forces discussed in "No Ordinary Disruption" forces businesses (and/or their agency advisors) to deeply consider - and prepare for - each one. The four forces are: the rise of emerging markets, the impact of tech in relation to market competition, an aging world population (especially concerning with COVID-19 affecting many of the elderly), and accelerating flows of trade, data, and of course, people.
Well researched and with a strong focus on observing players or actors commonly ignored on the world stage (e.g., African cities that are poised to deliver massive economic growth), this is a book to pick up if you're interested in the global economy, and to see how truly connected the world is.
A timely read in the middle of a pandemic, the four global forces discussed in "No Ordinary Disruption" forces businesses (and/or their agency advisors) to deeply consider - and prepare for - each one. The four forces are: the rise of emerging markets, the impact of tech in relation to market competition, an aging world population (especially concerning with COVID-19 affecting many of the elderly), and accelerating flows of trade, data, and of course, people.
Well researched and with a strong focus on observing players or actors commonly ignored on the world stage (e.g., African cities that are poised to deliver massive economic growth), this is a book to pick up if you're interested in the global economy, and to see how truly connected the world is.
May 6, 2021
A treasure trove of precious statistics that make the case for 4 (fairly obvious and easily argued) disruptive forces. Surprisingly easy to read, this is a book that you will come to hate - not because it is difficult or wrong, exactly the opposite; because you know that if you could just remember 10% of the stastics and examples you could win every argument for the next few years. A postscript on the effect of Covid and the lesser distraction of Trump corruption and anti-democratic extremism is now necessary, although it might just push out the time horizons rather than changing the central arguments.
March 25, 2016
This book articulates clearly the challenges of our current and future global economy. It's an exceptional treatment of the subject with visibility to opportunities and trends not fully explored in business press. The structure made the content digestible and the adapt strategies were clearly explained.
Most interesting were the workforce challenges discussed with the greying trend and the 24-hour business cycles. Excellent read.
Most interesting were the workforce challenges discussed with the greying trend and the 24-hour business cycles. Excellent read.
August 25, 2016
Not recommended for folks who read econ blogs frequently. Overall good summary of long term secular trends - 1) urbanization 2) technology 3) Aging 4) Globalization. 2 is well covered in media and the blogosphere. 4 is all over the news given Brexit and Trump. Finance folks talk about 3 as well, especially the asset managers (Bob Merton's latest research). 1 receives the lowest attention amongst all. McKinsey research on tier II cities and their economic potential is worth having a look at.
Displaying 1 - 30 of 46 reviews