'Gripping . . . packed with fascinating detail' – Financial Times ‘Indispensable – brilliantly grounded in first-hand experience. Compelling’ – Rory Stewart, author of Politics on the Edge ‘Anyone interested in geopolitics should read it’ – Anne Applebaum, author of Autocracy, Inc
How do states actually exercise power in an age of chaos?
From top defense analyst Dr Jack Watling, Statecraft reveals the hidden mechanics of global influence. While we watch the headlines, Watling takes us inside the bunkers and wood-panelled offices where the real decisions are made.
In this urgent analysis, you will
The Iran How a sanctioned nation controls global energy prices despite US military might.The Russia-Ukraine Why a superpower struggled against a smaller neighbor in the opening months of the invasion.The Aircraft Carrier Why the UK spends billions on hardware it can barely support at sea.The Future of What the shifting ‘rules of power’ mean for the next great flashpoint.Middle How do smaller countries build leverage and stay off the menu? Whether it’s economic alliances, sea power, or the latest military technology, Watling provides a powerful new lens to understand a world that feels increasingly out of control.
Dr Jack Watling is Senior Research Fellow for Land Warfare at the Royal United Services Institute. Jack works closely with the British military on the development of concepts of operation, assessments of the future operating environment, and conducts operational analysis of contemporary conflicts.
Jack is the author of The Arms of the Future: Technology and Close Combat in the Twenty First Century. Jack's PhD examined the evolution of Britain’s policy responses to civil war in the early twentieth century. He has worked extensively with the Ukrainian Armed Forces during Russia's full-scale invasion, across NATO, and in Iraq, Mali, Rwanda, on Yemen and further afield.
Saggio interessantissimo di Jack Watling che, da una prospettiva soprattutto britannica, analizza e interpreta lo scenario internazionale attuale, andando a delineare le principali arene di confronto e gli attori (statali e non) che ne sono protagonisti. Sinceramente consigliato
Watling treats states as entities with coherent thoughts and goals. This works descriptively, in that he can create plausible narratives about clashes of interests and the signalling effects on each party.
The greatest challenge that arises from burden sharing, however, is that a partner’s political interests can change rapidly and unexpectedly, and much faster than a country can reconfigure its forces.
Watling does make concessions to the internal workings of each party, perhaps implicitly with the comment above, and more explicitly in relation to the prewar intelligence Russia was receiving from the corruption of individual Ukrainians, Trump’s wandering mind, and difficulties with the US Congress passing aid to Ukraine. However, it’s not a deep dive – one level this is fine, on another it does make it harder to read the book from a prescriptive perspective.
This is less intuitive than it may appear as Statecraft is full of prescriptive comments!
Therefore, it is important to consider how strategies must be tested in terms of both how they will be perceived and how those perceptions will drive a response to them, among both friends and adversaries.
…and that’s good – but when I look at the information flowing behind the decision marking in the political sphere, things appear less clear than Statecraft is making it, and then I wonder if the descriptions are “fitting the curve” of events. The points start to sound trite, being self-evident in retrospect because they are, well, in retrospect. We are called onto assume certain things, such as the wasted potential for reordering of the Middle East following Soleimani’s assassination.
However, I don’t want to be too hostile to the model of thinking that Watling creates. He does distil matters to the most obvious points – harder than it seems:
One can think about the seven years between these assessments and the eventual NATO withdrawal and Afghan collapse as a long period filled with activity. But if the reasons for the collapse were evident from 2014, and nothing had been done to address them, it can also be said that practically nothing meaningful was done over this period. Most activity was aimed at buying more time before defeat, but no action was taken to alter the trajectory.
Clarity of thought is something – even if it is hard to turn into clarity of action.
Diplomacy and geopolitics for the Man on the Clapham Omnibus.
This is really interesting stuff. Some of the chapters are amazing, and one feels as if one needs a highlighter pen at hand to cement some of the points in one's mind. This is sometimes dense stuff, but the author has a light touch, so it keeps you invested in the idea of it. Some of the sections I found really insightful were Insight, Choke Points and Values.
The book is very quotable. I liked the idea that 'Reality has no plot, no timeline or sense of drama.' I liked the passage IIRC 'History is a terrible teacher, who beats you over the head with hindsight at every opportunity.'
Donald should read this book. But that would necessitate him having to read something longer than a McDonalds menu.
Čia yra TA knyga, kurią reikia skaityti jeigu norisi suprasti kas dedasi šių laikų politinėje erdvėje, tarpvalstybiniuose santykiuose. Nuo Ukrainos iki Taivano, nuo sankcijų iki geografinių ribojimų. Autorius pats buvęs nemažai vietų ir turi stiprių insiderio žinių apie diskusijas, kurios nevyksta viešai. Klausiau, bet reikės parsisiųsti ir fizinę kopiją.
This book covers diverse intl conflicts (Ukraine, Mali, Iraq, Yemen etc), but with the aim of understanding Western foreign policy. Instead of organising the book by conflict, the chapters focus on individual aspects of statecraft like dependence, choke points, values etc. This allows Watling to draw on a diverse lens on an issue (military, economic, diplomatic etc).
Watling's point is that the policy establishment fails at strategic thinking and implementation. Instead they veer from one crisis to the next, investing resources after outcomes are largely decided. Strategic reviews are diluted down by inter-governmental processes. He thinks leaders need to re-orient towards statecraft in order to positively influence the world.
I thought this was an unusual book, but it worked. The details on each conflict weren't lost in the ambition of the book, possibly because of Watling's background in journalism. It also illustrates the theories very well as they're discussed with regards to 5 different conflicts.
That said, the following didn't work for me: - It was sometimes hard to follow exactly what happened in the less well known conflicts when they were last discussed 5 chapters ago. It mostly did a good job of providing the necessary context at the time of writing, but occasionally I lost the thread. - Although the analysis is compelling, it's hard to see how it can be applied to actually shape strategy. It's hard to know which lens is important at any point in time. To put it in scientific language, the framework has too many free variables.
Still, I'd definitely recommend this book to anyone interested in foreign affairs.
In Statecraft, Watling analyses contemporary conflicts through the perspectives of states. Statecraft consists of 12 chapters, each on a different topic (values, arms, time, etc.) and Watling synthesises events across Ukraine, the Middle East, Africa, US-China relations etc to rationalise and understand how states behave and protect their interests. Statecraft is peppered with journalistic prose of Watling’s experiences as a defence analyst—where we get an insider peek on the forefront of military planning.
The really cool thing is how Watling distils all his experiences into coherent narratives and insights. While many of the less known conflicts were initially difficult to follow, the book is able to translate events such as the successive US failures in intervention in the global south and turn it into principles; e.g. the need to find common ground with parties and the failure of lumping groups as “international terrorist organisations” impeding any attempt at diplomacy.
Overall, the book frequently touches on the failures of democracies and bureaucracies particularly in Europe but also in the US. Watling posits that politicians in democracies are often guided to prevent “worst possible outcome” rather than achieve long-term goals, hence leading to a highly reactionary “putting out fires” approach. Bureaucracies on the other hand plan military strategies out far in advance, but are unable to adapt and leverage on inflection points. Governments, democratic institutions and bureaucracies have to be aligned to always have clearly defined objectives, to have long-term plans but also be agile and prepared to take advantage of inflection points.
A recurring topic is also that across states, collaboration and negotiation is incredibly difficult even when there are strong mutual benefits. Statecraft analyses this dynamic between allies (e.g. failed efforts such as the US’s provision of F-16s to ukraine) and between adversaries (fundamental differences in how russia and the US view military escalation leading to unnecessary tension). Never has it been more important, in a multi-polar world, to understand the culture and perspectives and thus hidden agendas each state or actor may have, whether friend or foe.
Statecraft is full of these little tidbits of knowledge that almost make it feel like a contemporary art of war, complete with principles that can be used in life. As someone who vaguely keeps up with modern conflicts its refreshing to have a synthesised and digestible way to look at how states behave and maybe understand a bit more about how humans behave.
sidenote i think this is also v refreshing cause with so much media on the world being run by billionaires this book illustrates a very different perspective on power
I read this book in three days, averaging about 12-14 hours total reading time. It was an easy read, popularly accessible, and contemporaneously relevant in geopolitical terms. I would challenge the subtitle, I do not feel that author introduced any evidence that there are "new" rules of power in any sense of the imagination. The clearest indication in political reality testing suggests that we are returning to the "old" rules in a classical sense, that the status quo of the Post-WW2 system has fantastically degraded to such an extent that the world has become divided to such a degree as to disabuse any good faith commentator that history had effectively ended with the preeminence of liberal-democracy, that the leadership in the West is either competent or interested in ruling effectively in relation to human nature or current constraints on our shared political reality, is capable of competing against adversarial or participatory orders, and the sooner we can cease and desist from re-inventing the proverbial political wheel, the sooner we can get our constituencies back on track and driving towards achievable strategic outcomes. I didn't mind the book, it does help paint a recent picture in the same lines that Hal Brands' "The Eurasian Century," David Kilcullen's "The Dragons and the Snakes," or Robert Kaplan's "The Tragic Mind" approach the early 21st century situation. Beyond the author's anecdotal case histories, which I can appreciate as being contributory to adding valuable perspective, I did enjoy his structuring of the foreign policy and national security topic, his thematic divisions, and pragmatic prescriptions sprinkled throughout the book. I may have some particular disagreements at points and did scribble in the margins interspersed with longer uninterrupted reading and simple notations for importance or relevance, I do agree with his general characterization and conclusion towards reforming Western leadership practices, effectively advocating multilateral rationalism and what I will continue to call proconsularship, or delegated command teams from a grand strategic central authority that can adapt and evolve through this period, overcome the stasis of 20th century norms and expectations, and mature sufficiently to avoid serious socio-political setbacks or defeats in the decades to come - my own personal mission perhaps, but one that I don't mind sharing. I think the book was good enough to recommend, although it might not have fit the bill of my own reading campaign, it could have been much worse and so I will remain positive overall with this title.
„Statecraft- The New Rules of Power in a Divided World”, Jack Watling, Macmillan, 2026 „Pentru Europa, ceea ce a ieșit din subsolurile din Bucha, Izium și Herson este revelația morală că războiul nu era unul al unui stat împotriva altui stat, sau chiar pentru dreptul de a te apăra împotriva agresiunii, ci un război al binelui cu răul”. p.92 Te-ai întrebat de ce portavioane de miliarde de dolari pot deveni irelevante într-o lume în care influența se măsoară în pârghii economice și reziliență tehnologică? În volumul „Statecraft: The New Rules of Power in a Divided World”, Jack Watling demontează mecanismele puterii moderne și îți oferă o perspectivă lucidă asupra modului în care statele navighează prin haosul geopolitic actual. Watling este un analist cu experiență directă în zone de conflict din Ucraina până în Mali. El transformă teoria politică într-o investigație a buncărelor și birourilor unde se decide soarta lumii. Artai guvernării nu este aici simplă forță militară. Ci o capacitate de a anticipa și de a schimba premisele unui conflict. Watling analizează eșecurile strategice ale Occidentului și insistă asupra necesității unei noi viziuni asupra ordinii internaționale, unde statele mici pot modela evenimente globale. Iar investiția în strategie devine vitală pentru supraviețuire. „Aceasta e perioada în care investițiile pot înregistra cel mai rapid progres spre rezultatul dorit”. p.302 https://youtu.be/drGqFhmq5Yw
leitura fundamental para os estudantes de geopolítica e estratégia contemporânea, escrito por um dos principais teóricos atuais da evolução tecnológica da guerra. o livro acusa os decisores políticos ocidentais de falharem em produzir estratégias capazes de responder às questões du jour, sendo demasiado reativas e constrangidas por cortes orçamentais ou prioridades mais eleitoralmente apelativas. para além da guerra russo-ucraniana, também são abrangidos pelo livro os conflitos no iémen, mali, iraque e outros, revelando aquilo que qualquer pessoa atenta conclui, que a nobre mentira da ordem liberal assente em regras já não se aplica e que os governos, se querem sobreviver no novo mundo em construção, devem conseguir articular os seus meios com modo a atingir fins definidos e saber reequilibrar a balança em seu favor sempre que o timing o permita.
Interesting deep dive into geopolitics especially about the Russia-Ukraine conflict. I was apprehensive reading the book after seeing the notorious Anne Applebaum's wholesome praise of it. However I was pleasantly surprised the balanced approach that eschews the typical activist analysis that takes a black or white perspective.
Need to be cognizant that the writer is well connected looking at his access to people and information. He analysis is balanced and facts based. However, it still fall short as he somehow misses some key events / facts about the Russia Ukraine war. Not sure it was intentional or due to being fed false information or a honest oversight.
Nevertheless a well written and deeply researched work that provides the layman great insights into some of the hottest geopolitical issues today.
An excellent if depressing read. It paints a coherent and compelling picture of a world where no one really knows what’s going on, it’s a grand game where different “my truths” deeply influence what actually happens in nations and war and brutal murder is a natural consequence of the modern world we live in. It also has the added benefit of making you realise just how ‘not up to the task’ the current set of “leaders” we have in positions of political power.
There are some attempts at optimism, but they mostly come from an accurate diagnosis of the multi factorial problems, rather than by way of practical solutions. Food for thought.
Halfway through this book I gave up. If international affairs, political science or geopolitics is your background you’ll find very few new things here.
To be fair, there’s a lot of effort from the author in this book, the chapters are also finely organized and they make lots of sense. The book itself is worth reading, the process however is painful.
The book mixes lots of unnecessary anecdotes, burdensome detail and lengthy phrases that just make it difficult to read. I am not a native English speaker, nor am I unfamiliar with complex texts but this one really, really needs editing if they want to reach wider a wider audience.
Statecraft by Jack Watling is a good book about a topic that is rarely written about: how states make decisions, as opposed to how we do as individuals. That makes the book exceptional, albeit a bit dry at times. If anyone believes the world is run by billionaires (and trillionaires), they should definitely read it to find out how completely different real statecraft is from that idea.
Great primer for understanding what’s happening in contemporary international politics. The insider-analyst narrative style would benefit from more figures/illustrations.
"Another factor in Ukraine's assessment of the situation was that the Russian troops themselves appeared unprepared for an invasion. ..it was cold and dark, and the soldiers spent a lot of time on mobile phones chatting with friends, with family, on dating apps and recording and filming one another. This large body of unencrypted traffic was surveyed and analysed by Ukrainian agencies.. Ukraine had good analysts, but ultimately lacked the underlying collection capability to build a proper picture."
Insightful, clearly presented, skilled analysis - a timely book that should be read by everyone, most especially those in positions of power in their countries. Be forewarned if you have little power to change world events, as this book will terrify. Read it anyway - it's that informative and that well written. It helps make sense of current geopolitical situations. And this book may inspire one to take steps to change things for a better future.