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The Future of the Professions: How Technology Will Transform the Work of Human Experts
This book predicts the decline of today's professions and describes the people and systems that will replace them. In an Internet society, according to Richard Susskind and Daniel Susskind, we will neither need nor want doctors, teachers, accountants, architects, the clergy, consultants, lawyers, and many others, to work as they did in the 20th century.
The Future of the Professions explains how 'increasingly capable systems' -- from telepresence to artificial intelligence -- will bring fundamental change in the way that the 'practical expertise' of specialists is made available in society.
The authors challenge the 'grand bargain' -- the arrangement that grants various monopolies to today's professionals. They argue that our current professions are antiquated, opaque and no longer affordable, and that the expertise of their best is enjoyed only by a few. In their place, they propose six new models for producing and distributing expertise in society.
The book raises important practical and moral questions. In an era when machines can out-perform human beings at most tasks, what are the prospects for employment, who should own and control online expertise, and what tasks should be reserved exclusively for people?
Based on the authors' in-depth research of more than ten professions, and illustrated by numerous examples from each, this is the first book to assess and question the relevance of the professions in the 21st century.
The Future of the Professions explains how 'increasingly capable systems' -- from telepresence to artificial intelligence -- will bring fundamental change in the way that the 'practical expertise' of specialists is made available in society.
The authors challenge the 'grand bargain' -- the arrangement that grants various monopolies to today's professionals. They argue that our current professions are antiquated, opaque and no longer affordable, and that the expertise of their best is enjoyed only by a few. In their place, they propose six new models for producing and distributing expertise in society.
The book raises important practical and moral questions. In an era when machines can out-perform human beings at most tasks, what are the prospects for employment, who should own and control online expertise, and what tasks should be reserved exclusively for people?
Based on the authors' in-depth research of more than ten professions, and illustrated by numerous examples from each, this is the first book to assess and question the relevance of the professions in the 21st century.
368 pages, Hardcover
First published August 25, 2015
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3599 people want to read
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August 22, 2018
One of the most interesting books by Richard Sennett I’ve read is The Craftsman. It is too easy to think of a craftsperson as someone who is very skilled, that is, to focus on their skills, while what they really are is someone who takes flawed and particular materials and knows how to accommodate, to work around those flaws so as to make something virtually perfect. This is an incredibly important idea and so I’m going to stress it a bit since this bespoke notion of the craftsperson is central to the idea of what a professional is in this book. A craftsperson is someone who applies their skill to the particularity of the circumstances they are confronted with – the grain of the stone, the maturity of the wood, the coarseness of the fibres – and they are then able to make a bespoke product from these materials, adjusting their technique to the requirements and limitations of the materials at hand. Now, this is the opposite of the way products are manufactured in industry. The division of labour requires ‘standardised inputs’. If a craftsperson is able to produce a product that incorporates and embraces the flaws in the raw materials it is required to deal with, industrial manufacture is universal because it standardises these inputs so as to also standardise the outputs.
Repeatedly throughout this book the authors stress that the key unifying idea of a professional is that they provide bespoke solutions to their clients’ problems. Some of this depends on a professional’s access to knowledge that is difficult to acquire, and since we all live in a complex society, it is important that some of us specialise in acquiring that knowledge. Often this isn’t explicit knowledge that you pay for, but rather tacit knowledge – that is, the professional can’t tell you how they know, but they still know all the same. This might sound like professionals trying to justify their advantages and hide the source of those advantages, but actually, tacit knowledge is a very important human skill. Tacit knowledge comes out of experience, in fact, enough experience that we are often unable to put into words what it is we ‘just do’. And since we find it impossible to describe or even know we are using this tacit knowledge, it is difficult to see how we could program a computer to do it.
And that is the interesting thing about this book. They repeatedly make the point that AI doesn’t have to do things in the same way that humans do them to get the same or even better results. The point out that humans can’t beat a computer at chess, but not because the computer plays chess like a human – it really doesn’t – it plays chess like a computer – crunching millions of combinations via brute computational force. And so, the Turing test overstates the problem – even if we know the computer is a computer it can still be, in effect, more intelligent than we are. That is, in much the same way that industrial manufacture isn’t the same as craft manufacture, it isn’t that the output needs to be identical to the output of a craftsperson, but it does matter that the output is fit for purpose. That is, knowing the difference between a handcrafted lampshade and a manufactured one doesn’t necessarily mean I’m going to always choose the handcrafted one.
The authors tell one of those management stories that they use to explain this idea early in the book – where some management consulting firm is talking to a meeting of executives from a power tool company and they show the executives some photos of a drill and ask, ‘is this what you sell to your customers?’ The executives assume this is some sort of trick, but eventually agree that it is – to which the consultants say, ‘no, you sell the hole in the wall, the drill is just your latest way of making that hole’. Yeah, yeah. But the authors make good use of this story as they go on – so, what is the hole that professions sell their clients? And to what extent will technology be able make that ‘hole’ in ways that will not require professionals to work or engage with their clients in the ways that they do today?
A point they make is that there is likely to be latent demand in the economy. That is, people, who would like to go see a doctor or a lawyer or one of any other groups of professionals, but who can’t simply because such bespoke services from professionals are insanely expensive. And that the extreme expense of professional services makes these services remarkably unevenly distributed in society, which in turn works against our society being fair or democratic. As such, the shift towards redesigning these services so that they can be provided by information systems is likely to provide huge benefits for a wide number of people across society. And that this democratising of access to professional advice is going to be hard to stop as communication technology becomes increasingly all-pervasive.
They also make the point that professional workers generally seek to stress the bespoke aspects of their work – you know, the accountant who needed to do the accounting version of a triple back summersault with a pike to ensure the maximum tax return for their client – whereas, in reality and overall, most of the tasks associated with their job are routine and fairly simple. That is, the authors aren’t saying that all professional jobs will necessarily disappear in the next few years, but what they are saying is that a great many of the tasks that professionals do are able to be taken from them by network design, AI, process re-engineering and so on. As such, the work that professionals do is likely to change significantly and even if this doesn’t eliminate their jobs entirely, it will significantly change those jobs, probably to the point where they are barely recognisable.
Basically, this book provides us with a vision into the future presenting a kind of Fordist reshaping of professional work. A lot of what I’ve been reading lately has stressed that most of the jobs that are about to disappear due to automation are those in the middle – that is, the paraprofessionals, rather than the professionals. The reasoning being that paraprofessionals generally do routine work professionals avoid. However, this book thinks paraprofessionals may have more going for them than we imagine. They are cheaper than professionals, they are highly trained in the specific tasks they perform – in much the same way that the division of labour in factories broke down complex craft skills into smaller and simpler ones – and they are also often required to have more interpersonal skills than the ‘content knowledge specialists’ who are the true professionals. This level of simplification of work roles and specialisation of individual tasks is exactly what the Fordist industrial revolution brought for us at the turn of the last century in turning crafts into a division of labour – and so it isn’t clear why it wouldn’t do much the same when it is being applied to professional work.
This book provides a useful discussion of what a professional is, it gives a history of the development of professions and also compelling visions of how they are likely to change over the coming decades. This is a seriously interesting book.
Repeatedly throughout this book the authors stress that the key unifying idea of a professional is that they provide bespoke solutions to their clients’ problems. Some of this depends on a professional’s access to knowledge that is difficult to acquire, and since we all live in a complex society, it is important that some of us specialise in acquiring that knowledge. Often this isn’t explicit knowledge that you pay for, but rather tacit knowledge – that is, the professional can’t tell you how they know, but they still know all the same. This might sound like professionals trying to justify their advantages and hide the source of those advantages, but actually, tacit knowledge is a very important human skill. Tacit knowledge comes out of experience, in fact, enough experience that we are often unable to put into words what it is we ‘just do’. And since we find it impossible to describe or even know we are using this tacit knowledge, it is difficult to see how we could program a computer to do it.
And that is the interesting thing about this book. They repeatedly make the point that AI doesn’t have to do things in the same way that humans do them to get the same or even better results. The point out that humans can’t beat a computer at chess, but not because the computer plays chess like a human – it really doesn’t – it plays chess like a computer – crunching millions of combinations via brute computational force. And so, the Turing test overstates the problem – even if we know the computer is a computer it can still be, in effect, more intelligent than we are. That is, in much the same way that industrial manufacture isn’t the same as craft manufacture, it isn’t that the output needs to be identical to the output of a craftsperson, but it does matter that the output is fit for purpose. That is, knowing the difference between a handcrafted lampshade and a manufactured one doesn’t necessarily mean I’m going to always choose the handcrafted one.
The authors tell one of those management stories that they use to explain this idea early in the book – where some management consulting firm is talking to a meeting of executives from a power tool company and they show the executives some photos of a drill and ask, ‘is this what you sell to your customers?’ The executives assume this is some sort of trick, but eventually agree that it is – to which the consultants say, ‘no, you sell the hole in the wall, the drill is just your latest way of making that hole’. Yeah, yeah. But the authors make good use of this story as they go on – so, what is the hole that professions sell their clients? And to what extent will technology be able make that ‘hole’ in ways that will not require professionals to work or engage with their clients in the ways that they do today?
A point they make is that there is likely to be latent demand in the economy. That is, people, who would like to go see a doctor or a lawyer or one of any other groups of professionals, but who can’t simply because such bespoke services from professionals are insanely expensive. And that the extreme expense of professional services makes these services remarkably unevenly distributed in society, which in turn works against our society being fair or democratic. As such, the shift towards redesigning these services so that they can be provided by information systems is likely to provide huge benefits for a wide number of people across society. And that this democratising of access to professional advice is going to be hard to stop as communication technology becomes increasingly all-pervasive.
They also make the point that professional workers generally seek to stress the bespoke aspects of their work – you know, the accountant who needed to do the accounting version of a triple back summersault with a pike to ensure the maximum tax return for their client – whereas, in reality and overall, most of the tasks associated with their job are routine and fairly simple. That is, the authors aren’t saying that all professional jobs will necessarily disappear in the next few years, but what they are saying is that a great many of the tasks that professionals do are able to be taken from them by network design, AI, process re-engineering and so on. As such, the work that professionals do is likely to change significantly and even if this doesn’t eliminate their jobs entirely, it will significantly change those jobs, probably to the point where they are barely recognisable.
Basically, this book provides us with a vision into the future presenting a kind of Fordist reshaping of professional work. A lot of what I’ve been reading lately has stressed that most of the jobs that are about to disappear due to automation are those in the middle – that is, the paraprofessionals, rather than the professionals. The reasoning being that paraprofessionals generally do routine work professionals avoid. However, this book thinks paraprofessionals may have more going for them than we imagine. They are cheaper than professionals, they are highly trained in the specific tasks they perform – in much the same way that the division of labour in factories broke down complex craft skills into smaller and simpler ones – and they are also often required to have more interpersonal skills than the ‘content knowledge specialists’ who are the true professionals. This level of simplification of work roles and specialisation of individual tasks is exactly what the Fordist industrial revolution brought for us at the turn of the last century in turning crafts into a division of labour – and so it isn’t clear why it wouldn’t do much the same when it is being applied to professional work.
This book provides a useful discussion of what a professional is, it gives a history of the development of professions and also compelling visions of how they are likely to change over the coming decades. This is a seriously interesting book.
December 2, 2015
I really wanted to like this book, but I found it disappointing. Like too many popular non-fiction books, it takes 350 pages to express an interesting idea that could have been fully developed in 35 pages. I was intrigued by the basic premise that as computers become faster and faster and more and more complex and as networks become ever more connected, we will get to a place in the not too distant future where complex tasks that are performed today by highly paid professionals will be done by machines and semi-skilled lower paid paraprofessionals. I think that this is probably right, although my particular profession of entertainment law is likely to lag behind the trend by a few years, and I will be long retired by the time my job is obsolete. The problem with the book is that the author never really develops the idea in an interesting or insightful way. He tells us a lot of things that we already know and speaks of the future in vague generalities. I have always enjoyed being on the bleeding edge in my job, working in new areas and finding new ways to do my job better, even when it has not made me more money, so I was hoping that this book would give me some pointers as to how move the business to next level. Unfortunately it didn't, so I'll have to look to some other source for inspiration.
January 27, 2016
Richard and Daniel Susskind are a father and son team. Between them they have written 8 previous books focusing on the future of the legal profession in a technological age. In The Future of the Professions they turn their attention more widely to the professions in general.
Their overall conclusion, rather stark for anyone working in the professions, but which the Susskind's regard as a very positive outcome:
"Increasingly capable systems will bring transformations to professional work that will resemble the impact of industrialisation on traditional craftsmanship [...] giving birth to new ways of sharing practical expertise. In the long run [ ...] our professions will be dismantled incrementally."
To declare an interest, I'm an actuary, one of the professions that falls within their scope. Although they point out frequently that many professionals "argue that what we say applies right across the professions except in one field - their own", so I will resist that temptation, albeit I frequently found myself falling into the trap.
By far the strongest part of the book is the first 40 pages (Chapter 1), an excellent summary of what the professions are, the reason for their existence and the "grand bargain" with society.
They don't attempt a rigorous definition of profession, but do identify four overlapping similarities:
1. Specialist knowledge
2. Admissions depends on credentials
3. Activities are regulated - both granted exclusivity by law, and internal standards and codes of conduct
4. Bound by a common set of values
[Although oddly one of the examples they most commonly use to illustrate their point are the "professional services" firms, including management consultancy, which seems to be not to feature many of these points.]
And they explain the contract with society thus:
"In acknowledgement of an in return for their expertise, experience, and judgement, which they are expected to apply in delivering affordable, accessible, up-to-date, reassuring and reliable services, and on the understanding that they will curate and update their knowledge and methods, train their members, set and enforce standards for the quality of their work, and that they will only admit appropriately qualified individuals into their ranks, and that they will always act honestly, in good faith, putting the interests of clients ahead of their own, we (society) place our trust in the professions in granting them exclusivity over a wide range of socially significant services and activities, by paying them a fair wage, by conferring upon them independence, autonomy, rights of self-determination and by according them respect and status."
Interestingly, they point out there are other ways this could have been achieved, quoting Andrew Abbott (The System of Professions) "the generalised expertise of the imperial civil services, the lay practitioners of certain religious groups, the popular diffusion of expertise characteristic of micro computing" [NB this quote dates from 1998, hence the language in the last example].
The remainder of the book sets out what the authors perceive as the problems with this model and their vision for the opportunity in the 21st Century. As other reviewers have noted, this part shares the common failings of many similar books - saying in 250 pages what could easily have been said in 30, largely to pad out the book to the length that justifies the cover price. For example Chapter 2 consists of a tedious 50 page dump of almost any current example they can find across different fields of systems encroaching on the professions.
They also talk a lot about "research" and "the evidence we have uncovered", although a lot of this seems to be "reflecting on the writings of others" and anecdotal information from discussions.
However, the kernel of their hypothesis is worth study, as they argue:
1. Professions are purely a means to an end, not the end itself, and simply "an artefact that we have built to meet a particular set of needs on a print-based industrial society" i.e. the best way for providing "practical expertise" (which they define as formal-knowledge+know-how+expertise+experience+application skills) .
While the availability of printed books "gave rise to an explosion in the quantity and complexity of recorded information", this actually gave rise to the professions to "make sense of, manage, and apply" this knowledge. But in the fourth wave of information (oral to script to print to information technology), the same set-up is no longer necessarily appropriate.
2. "Our primary need is only for a reliable outcome ... Were it not for recipients' limited understanding and corresponding need for knowledge, there would be no trust required, no reassurance desired, no quality to control, no services or behaviours to regulate."
I.e. the whole professional ethos itself is merely a means to an end. They are particular harsh on the "shroud of mystery [that] is thrown over certain institutions, protecting them from challenge and change. And those who mystify use language, custom, clothing, and rhetoric as the tools of their trade"
3. But "levels of access and affordability to the practical expertise that the professions provide fall short of acceptable." Hence there is a moral imperative to widen this access and transform (even end) the professions.
4. Knowledge unlike physical goods can be consumed by many people ("non-rival") indeed its re-use often makes it more valuable. This overcomes a lot of issues with wider sharing of this practical expertise that otherwise arise ["the tragedy of the commons" (Garrett Hardin)].
5. Information technology offers increasingly better, and different, ways to disseminate practical expertise other than via the professions. And this isn't simply a case of automating what they do and making professionals more efficient, but bypassing them altogether "not by copying high-performing people but by exploiting the distinctive capabilities of new technologies, such as massive data-storage capacity and brute-force processing."
They regard this attempt to computerise human thinking as a failing of the first wave of expert systems from the 1980s, with which they themselves were involved ("in the professions certaintly, thirty years on, there are far fewer operational expert systems of the sort we had developed than we expected"). They quote Robert Winston "There are lots of ways of being smart that aren't smart like us", and Richard Feynman "it is not necessary to understand the lever system in the legs of a cheetah, in order to make an automobile with wheels that goes very fast."
They aren't forecasting change overnight, but are forecasting that when (and in their view it is when, not if) change comes, it will be fundamental:
"We regard the professions as likely to last longer in their current form than most other occupations...we cannot emphasize strongly enough that we are not predicting that the professions will disappear over the next few years. We are looking decades ahead...[but] we foresee that, in the end, the traditional professions will be dismantled"
The several different models they envisage include:
- networked experts
- para-professionals
- knowledge engineering
- communities of experience
- embedded knowledge
- machine-generated expertise
Overall the authors regard this future not as a negative, but as a good think, spreading the practical expertise currently generated by the professions (in law, tax, audit, actuarial work, education etc) much more freely. They do raise some concerns of their own e.g. that "somehow, in some circumstances, it feels inappropriate, or wrong, to abnegate responsibility and pass it along to a machine, no matter how high-performing.". But they argue such cases are very rare and represent only a fraction of what we would regard today as professional work.
The other, tangentially related, issue which they touch on briefly, but I suspect not enough, is the strong preference humans still seem to have for experts over algorithms. A recent Wharton paper covered this [my own reference, not referenced in the book]:
https://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/m...
"Research shows that evidence-based algorithms more accurately predict the future than do human
forecasters. Yet when forecasters are deciding whether to use a human forecaster or a statistical
algorithm, they often choose the human forecaster. This phenomenon, which we call algorithm aversion, is costly, and it is important to understand its causes. We show that people are especially averse to algorithmic forecasters after seeing them perform, even when they see them outperform a human forecaster. This is because people more quickly lose confidence in algorithmic than human forecasters after seeing them make the same mistake. In 5 studies, participants either saw an algorithm make forecasts, a human make forecasts, both, or neither. They then decided whether to tie their incentives to the future predictions of the algorithm or the human. Participants who saw the algorithm perform were less confident in it, and less likely to choose it over an inferior human forecaster. This was true even among those who saw the algorithm outperform the human."
Overall a thought provoking book.
Their overall conclusion, rather stark for anyone working in the professions, but which the Susskind's regard as a very positive outcome:
"Increasingly capable systems will bring transformations to professional work that will resemble the impact of industrialisation on traditional craftsmanship [...] giving birth to new ways of sharing practical expertise. In the long run [ ...] our professions will be dismantled incrementally."
To declare an interest, I'm an actuary, one of the professions that falls within their scope. Although they point out frequently that many professionals "argue that what we say applies right across the professions except in one field - their own", so I will resist that temptation, albeit I frequently found myself falling into the trap.
By far the strongest part of the book is the first 40 pages (Chapter 1), an excellent summary of what the professions are, the reason for their existence and the "grand bargain" with society.
They don't attempt a rigorous definition of profession, but do identify four overlapping similarities:
1. Specialist knowledge
2. Admissions depends on credentials
3. Activities are regulated - both granted exclusivity by law, and internal standards and codes of conduct
4. Bound by a common set of values
[Although oddly one of the examples they most commonly use to illustrate their point are the "professional services" firms, including management consultancy, which seems to be not to feature many of these points.]
And they explain the contract with society thus:
"In acknowledgement of an in return for their expertise, experience, and judgement, which they are expected to apply in delivering affordable, accessible, up-to-date, reassuring and reliable services, and on the understanding that they will curate and update their knowledge and methods, train their members, set and enforce standards for the quality of their work, and that they will only admit appropriately qualified individuals into their ranks, and that they will always act honestly, in good faith, putting the interests of clients ahead of their own, we (society) place our trust in the professions in granting them exclusivity over a wide range of socially significant services and activities, by paying them a fair wage, by conferring upon them independence, autonomy, rights of self-determination and by according them respect and status."
Interestingly, they point out there are other ways this could have been achieved, quoting Andrew Abbott (The System of Professions) "the generalised expertise of the imperial civil services, the lay practitioners of certain religious groups, the popular diffusion of expertise characteristic of micro computing" [NB this quote dates from 1998, hence the language in the last example].
The remainder of the book sets out what the authors perceive as the problems with this model and their vision for the opportunity in the 21st Century. As other reviewers have noted, this part shares the common failings of many similar books - saying in 250 pages what could easily have been said in 30, largely to pad out the book to the length that justifies the cover price. For example Chapter 2 consists of a tedious 50 page dump of almost any current example they can find across different fields of systems encroaching on the professions.
They also talk a lot about "research" and "the evidence we have uncovered", although a lot of this seems to be "reflecting on the writings of others" and anecdotal information from discussions.
However, the kernel of their hypothesis is worth study, as they argue:
1. Professions are purely a means to an end, not the end itself, and simply "an artefact that we have built to meet a particular set of needs on a print-based industrial society" i.e. the best way for providing "practical expertise" (which they define as formal-knowledge+know-how+expertise+experience+application skills) .
While the availability of printed books "gave rise to an explosion in the quantity and complexity of recorded information", this actually gave rise to the professions to "make sense of, manage, and apply" this knowledge. But in the fourth wave of information (oral to script to print to information technology), the same set-up is no longer necessarily appropriate.
2. "Our primary need is only for a reliable outcome ... Were it not for recipients' limited understanding and corresponding need for knowledge, there would be no trust required, no reassurance desired, no quality to control, no services or behaviours to regulate."
I.e. the whole professional ethos itself is merely a means to an end. They are particular harsh on the "shroud of mystery [that] is thrown over certain institutions, protecting them from challenge and change. And those who mystify use language, custom, clothing, and rhetoric as the tools of their trade"
3. But "levels of access and affordability to the practical expertise that the professions provide fall short of acceptable." Hence there is a moral imperative to widen this access and transform (even end) the professions.
4. Knowledge unlike physical goods can be consumed by many people ("non-rival") indeed its re-use often makes it more valuable. This overcomes a lot of issues with wider sharing of this practical expertise that otherwise arise ["the tragedy of the commons" (Garrett Hardin)].
5. Information technology offers increasingly better, and different, ways to disseminate practical expertise other than via the professions. And this isn't simply a case of automating what they do and making professionals more efficient, but bypassing them altogether "not by copying high-performing people but by exploiting the distinctive capabilities of new technologies, such as massive data-storage capacity and brute-force processing."
They regard this attempt to computerise human thinking as a failing of the first wave of expert systems from the 1980s, with which they themselves were involved ("in the professions certaintly, thirty years on, there are far fewer operational expert systems of the sort we had developed than we expected"). They quote Robert Winston "There are lots of ways of being smart that aren't smart like us", and Richard Feynman "it is not necessary to understand the lever system in the legs of a cheetah, in order to make an automobile with wheels that goes very fast."
They aren't forecasting change overnight, but are forecasting that when (and in their view it is when, not if) change comes, it will be fundamental:
"We regard the professions as likely to last longer in their current form than most other occupations...we cannot emphasize strongly enough that we are not predicting that the professions will disappear over the next few years. We are looking decades ahead...[but] we foresee that, in the end, the traditional professions will be dismantled"
The several different models they envisage include:
- networked experts
- para-professionals
- knowledge engineering
- communities of experience
- embedded knowledge
- machine-generated expertise
Overall the authors regard this future not as a negative, but as a good think, spreading the practical expertise currently generated by the professions (in law, tax, audit, actuarial work, education etc) much more freely. They do raise some concerns of their own e.g. that "somehow, in some circumstances, it feels inappropriate, or wrong, to abnegate responsibility and pass it along to a machine, no matter how high-performing.". But they argue such cases are very rare and represent only a fraction of what we would regard today as professional work.
The other, tangentially related, issue which they touch on briefly, but I suspect not enough, is the strong preference humans still seem to have for experts over algorithms. A recent Wharton paper covered this [my own reference, not referenced in the book]:
https://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/m...
"Research shows that evidence-based algorithms more accurately predict the future than do human
forecasters. Yet when forecasters are deciding whether to use a human forecaster or a statistical
algorithm, they often choose the human forecaster. This phenomenon, which we call algorithm aversion, is costly, and it is important to understand its causes. We show that people are especially averse to algorithmic forecasters after seeing them perform, even when they see them outperform a human forecaster. This is because people more quickly lose confidence in algorithmic than human forecasters after seeing them make the same mistake. In 5 studies, participants either saw an algorithm make forecasts, a human make forecasts, both, or neither. They then decided whether to tie their incentives to the future predictions of the algorithm or the human. Participants who saw the algorithm perform were less confident in it, and less likely to choose it over an inferior human forecaster. This was true even among those who saw the algorithm outperform the human."
Overall a thought provoking book.
April 1, 2017
We're used to hearing how technology is going to replace the jobs of those doing mechanistic jobs - but this book takes on the impact that technology will have on the professions.
I've only given the book three stars as it feels rather too much like a textbook (admittedly a well-written textbook), it's fairly repetitious and there's limited coverage of the science and technology behind the move. However this doesn't detract from the fascinating aspects of the book.
One of these is simply addressing the professions at all. According to the authors there's a fair amount of literature on this - but it's stuff us ordinary mortals are unlikely to have seen. A starting point is deciding just what the professions are. The book primarily focuses on the traditional professions such as medicine, accountancy, the law, journalism and religion - though they admit that the concept, essentially one where it is necessary to have specialist knowledge and there is often regulation and/or certification, is now a lot wider. (In practice, though religion gets passing mentions, it's largely sidelined, which is probably sensible in the context.)
The authors' assertion is that these roles can be subject to a kind of production line breakdown of tasks, some parts of which can easily be accommodated by information technology or less qualified individuals. The argument is that not only will this reduce costs where, for example, companies are reluctant to continue paying through the nose for corporate law (bye bye Suits), it also has the potential to open up these services to a much wider clientele that is presently largely excluded or at least has significantly reduced access.
Of course there are plenty of objections (often from those involved in the professions) which the authors largely succeed in knocking out of the way. For example they point out that this move will probably reduce the earnings of many professionals - but as they observe, these roles are not there for the benefit of the professionals but for their clients. Inevitably there is quite a lot of futurology style guesswork here. The authors point out they will often be wrong in detail - but argue convincingly that the professions are going to go through a major upheaval in the next generation.
It's amusing, given the authors' assertion that 'in the professions, knowledge resides in the heads of professionals, in books...', using this as a mark of how out of step the professions are in the internet age... that I should have been reading this in a book, rather than, say, a blog post or electronic magazine article. However this still remains a title of interest to anyone either involved in a profession (traditional or more modern) or interested in the future of the middle class.
I've only given the book three stars as it feels rather too much like a textbook (admittedly a well-written textbook), it's fairly repetitious and there's limited coverage of the science and technology behind the move. However this doesn't detract from the fascinating aspects of the book.
One of these is simply addressing the professions at all. According to the authors there's a fair amount of literature on this - but it's stuff us ordinary mortals are unlikely to have seen. A starting point is deciding just what the professions are. The book primarily focuses on the traditional professions such as medicine, accountancy, the law, journalism and religion - though they admit that the concept, essentially one where it is necessary to have specialist knowledge and there is often regulation and/or certification, is now a lot wider. (In practice, though religion gets passing mentions, it's largely sidelined, which is probably sensible in the context.)
The authors' assertion is that these roles can be subject to a kind of production line breakdown of tasks, some parts of which can easily be accommodated by information technology or less qualified individuals. The argument is that not only will this reduce costs where, for example, companies are reluctant to continue paying through the nose for corporate law (bye bye Suits), it also has the potential to open up these services to a much wider clientele that is presently largely excluded or at least has significantly reduced access.
Of course there are plenty of objections (often from those involved in the professions) which the authors largely succeed in knocking out of the way. For example they point out that this move will probably reduce the earnings of many professionals - but as they observe, these roles are not there for the benefit of the professionals but for their clients. Inevitably there is quite a lot of futurology style guesswork here. The authors point out they will often be wrong in detail - but argue convincingly that the professions are going to go through a major upheaval in the next generation.
It's amusing, given the authors' assertion that 'in the professions, knowledge resides in the heads of professionals, in books...', using this as a mark of how out of step the professions are in the internet age... that I should have been reading this in a book, rather than, say, a blog post or electronic magazine article. However this still remains a title of interest to anyone either involved in a profession (traditional or more modern) or interested in the future of the middle class.
January 15, 2023
Well documented, well written, informative and necessary. Recommended.
April 16, 2016
As a teacher it’s frustrating that we’re forced to prepare kids primarily with the skills needed for jobs that simply won’t exist in the future. With the rise of technology we are witnessing the incremental dismantling of the professions as we know them along with the redundancy of their respective skillsets.
The roles played by doctors, teachers, accountants, architects, the clergy, consultants, lawyers, and many others will as Susskind argues, will look substantially different in the years to come, if they are to exist at all.
I read this along with Ross’ excellent, “Industries of the Future” to get a more specific overview of the transformative effect technology will have on how particular fields will change in the coming years. Most of the conclusions seem intuitive given the evolving trends and pace of industrial innovations, yet most people will be wholly unprepared and most definitely resistant to the unprecedented upheaval the eventual displacement automation will bring.
You’ll need to either race to keep ahead, work alongside, or be made redundant in the Darwinist sense of the word if you fail to keep abreast of the inevitable sea-change that’s to come.
If you think that you currently provide a level of “human-touch” that’s immune to replacement by machines, or believe that there will be an offshoot of jobs created by these new technologies, then you need to read this book to understand why this most definitely WON’T be the case.
“Termination” might not come in the physical sense via a cybernetic organism wearing dark shades and riding a Harley, but will almost definitely happen via an automated email from an automated/outsourced HR department.
“Professions” is a very dry and repetitive read in parts with its academic and textbook-like tone. However, its underlying thesis is timely and prescient; maybe preparing kids for the uncertainty of life in an era of technological unemployment and a near jobless future will require the (re)teaching of basic hunter and gatherer survival skills? Let’s hope the machines treat us nicely.
The roles played by doctors, teachers, accountants, architects, the clergy, consultants, lawyers, and many others will as Susskind argues, will look substantially different in the years to come, if they are to exist at all.
I read this along with Ross’ excellent, “Industries of the Future” to get a more specific overview of the transformative effect technology will have on how particular fields will change in the coming years. Most of the conclusions seem intuitive given the evolving trends and pace of industrial innovations, yet most people will be wholly unprepared and most definitely resistant to the unprecedented upheaval the eventual displacement automation will bring.
You’ll need to either race to keep ahead, work alongside, or be made redundant in the Darwinist sense of the word if you fail to keep abreast of the inevitable sea-change that’s to come.
If you think that you currently provide a level of “human-touch” that’s immune to replacement by machines, or believe that there will be an offshoot of jobs created by these new technologies, then you need to read this book to understand why this most definitely WON’T be the case.
“Termination” might not come in the physical sense via a cybernetic organism wearing dark shades and riding a Harley, but will almost definitely happen via an automated email from an automated/outsourced HR department.
“Professions” is a very dry and repetitive read in parts with its academic and textbook-like tone. However, its underlying thesis is timely and prescient; maybe preparing kids for the uncertainty of life in an era of technological unemployment and a near jobless future will require the (re)teaching of basic hunter and gatherer survival skills? Let’s hope the machines treat us nicely.
August 22, 2020
Huvitav raamat, mis kirjeldab seda, kuidas on võimalik profesionaalse teenuse (arst, jurist, haridus jne) kättesaadavust suurendada. Seda peamiselt selle läbi, et muutub informatsiooni, teadmiste (nn practical expertise edastuse viis. Kõike ei ole vaja edastada profesionaali poolt (kogenud arsti või õpetaja) poolt näost-näkku. Informatsiooni võib edastada ka para-professional, kelle käsutuses olevad infotehnoloogilised lahendused ning olemasoleva kogemuse baasil võimaldab osutada samatasemelist teenust nagu profesionaal. Suure osa tööst on võimalik automatiseerida. Eesti kontekstis ei muretse me tuludeklaratsiooni esitamise pärast üldse, sest enamus tööst on meie eest ära tehtud. Kõige huvitavam koht on see, mil me jõuame aega, kus me suudame ennetada, mitte reageerida õnnetustele. Arsti vaatevinklist võib olla "äge" südameinfarkti ravi - saab südameveresooni avada, patsient on intensiivis jne. Mis siis, kui elaksime maailmas, kus haiglaid ei ole vaja?
February 22, 2016
This is a very thorough investigation into the state of technology and innovation, as they relate to the professions, and to their likely effects in the future. One of the authors has spent years working on the legal profession, but the book ranges widely across all the professions. Wisely, the authors shy away from specific predictions and time frames, but they strongly believe that the day of the "professional" as a fully knowledgeable and protected expert is drawing to a close, and fairly quickly. Still, they are optimistic that the technology-led evolution of professional work can, and should, lead not to fewer jobs, but simply different kinds of jobs within the different professions' spheres of knowledge. At least one other author (Martin Ford, in The Rise of the Robots) is less sanguine, foreseeing complete elimination of various classes of jobs without replacement. With the unbelievable continuing escalation in computer speed and power, the real answer to the question of who is right may come sooner than we think.
If I were reading only one of these books, I would choose The Rise of the Robots", although for a reader particularly interested in the professions, TFOTP is superior. In fact, for a practicing professional in today's world, concerned about the future, I would say it's must reading.
If I were reading only one of these books, I would choose The Rise of the Robots", although for a reader particularly interested in the professions, TFOTP is superior. In fact, for a practicing professional in today's world, concerned about the future, I would say it's must reading.
March 14, 2019
This book definitely tops the list of the most boring books that I have read in my life. This is a text book. This isn't a book for the casual reader. This is the kind of book that would be used in a classroom, where students would be expected to remember the answer to the question.
"What are the seven different ways in which Professions can become extinct in the future, state with appropriate examples" (for seven marks)
Or "Write the framework that the authors have developed to transition societies and industry through the four phases of phasing out professional work" (for five marks)
The book is so boring that it helped me drowse off multiple times!
The book is a 100% true technically, but these authors restrict themselves to traditional professions, i.e. auditors, consultants, teachers, drivers, tax consultants, chartered accountants etc... They carefully avoid talking about future professions, they say that they generate generic principles that can be applied to any industry to determine which parts of their careers are going through different phases as cited in the book. They also talk about industries that generate new professions, during the process, but don't talk about them. They threw a wet blanket on my enthusiasm to find an answer to the question "What are people going to do in the future? Will they be flying search drones in remote valleys of earth or other space colonies?" "Will they be writing AI code that searches deep space to find livable colonies or write code that could write code for itself?" Instead the authors were hell bent on throwing definitions at every chance they got. They developed frameworks to capture the common sense knowledge that anybody reading everyday news could relate to as obvious rational conclusions.
I was extremely disappointed at the size of the book, the book can be be cut in half or one third without losing much of the content. The book is extremely repetitive, The authors repeat the AI fallacy in full swing, at six different places in various chapters. There many such concepts repeated time and again. The book provides a framework or a dictionary/reference book to use in case you want to explicitly map the evolution of a specific profession and its tasks towards automation and to eventual overhaul. This book does not add huge value except - Knowledge Management and Pompous Word Play. The authors have done thorough research but they have not really vetted their work. Or passed it through an editor who would have done it for them. The work lacks any motivation to keep the user engaged. The work is also extremely derivative i.e. they have extracted their theories from hundreds of other books. I would not call that laziness, but I would call it extremely good curation. The book seems to be a cumulation of a few hundred published papers in various scientific magazines, discussion about morality, ethics at some points. The book definitely was a buzz kill.
Here is a list of other Books that are Mentioned in this Work:
System of Professions
Patient will see you now
Learning with big data
We are all Journalists now
The Firm
Future of Employment
GateKeepers
Big Data
Makers - The New Industrial Age
Managing the professional service firm
Second Machine Age
Orality and Literacy
The Information: A history, a theory, a flood
How to create a mind
The Singularity is Near
In the age of smart machine
The New Division of Labour
Affective Computing
The Penguin and the Levithan
Dove Weidman's How
The Checklist Manifesto
Future of Ideas
The Future of Law
The End of Lawyers
What Money Can't Buy
Computer Power and Human Reasoning
Wealth of Nations
Protestant Ethic and the spirit of Capitalism
Super Intelligence
Second Machine Age
The Zero Marginal Cost Society
A Theory of Justice
"What are the seven different ways in which Professions can become extinct in the future, state with appropriate examples" (for seven marks)
Or "Write the framework that the authors have developed to transition societies and industry through the four phases of phasing out professional work" (for five marks)
The book is so boring that it helped me drowse off multiple times!
The book is a 100% true technically, but these authors restrict themselves to traditional professions, i.e. auditors, consultants, teachers, drivers, tax consultants, chartered accountants etc... They carefully avoid talking about future professions, they say that they generate generic principles that can be applied to any industry to determine which parts of their careers are going through different phases as cited in the book. They also talk about industries that generate new professions, during the process, but don't talk about them. They threw a wet blanket on my enthusiasm to find an answer to the question "What are people going to do in the future? Will they be flying search drones in remote valleys of earth or other space colonies?" "Will they be writing AI code that searches deep space to find livable colonies or write code that could write code for itself?" Instead the authors were hell bent on throwing definitions at every chance they got. They developed frameworks to capture the common sense knowledge that anybody reading everyday news could relate to as obvious rational conclusions.
I was extremely disappointed at the size of the book, the book can be be cut in half or one third without losing much of the content. The book is extremely repetitive, The authors repeat the AI fallacy in full swing, at six different places in various chapters. There many such concepts repeated time and again. The book provides a framework or a dictionary/reference book to use in case you want to explicitly map the evolution of a specific profession and its tasks towards automation and to eventual overhaul. This book does not add huge value except - Knowledge Management and Pompous Word Play. The authors have done thorough research but they have not really vetted their work. Or passed it through an editor who would have done it for them. The work lacks any motivation to keep the user engaged. The work is also extremely derivative i.e. they have extracted their theories from hundreds of other books. I would not call that laziness, but I would call it extremely good curation. The book seems to be a cumulation of a few hundred published papers in various scientific magazines, discussion about morality, ethics at some points. The book definitely was a buzz kill.
Here is a list of other Books that are Mentioned in this Work:
System of Professions
Patient will see you now
Learning with big data
We are all Journalists now
The Firm
Future of Employment
GateKeepers
Big Data
Makers - The New Industrial Age
Managing the professional service firm
Second Machine Age
Orality and Literacy
The Information: A history, a theory, a flood
How to create a mind
The Singularity is Near
In the age of smart machine
The New Division of Labour
Affective Computing
The Penguin and the Levithan
Dove Weidman's How
The Checklist Manifesto
Future of Ideas
The Future of Law
The End of Lawyers
What Money Can't Buy
Computer Power and Human Reasoning
Wealth of Nations
Protestant Ethic and the spirit of Capitalism
Super Intelligence
Second Machine Age
The Zero Marginal Cost Society
A Theory of Justice
February 19, 2020
The two authors of this book are a father-son combination. Richard Susskind is a technology scholar and Daniel, his son, is an economist. Their prior work has concerned the influence of technological innovation on the legal profession. The current book, published in 2015 (and due to be updated later this year) expands their insights gained from the legal profession to a broader look at the impact of technology on “the professions” more broadly.
To understand the analytic path, note that while there is a huge research literature in many disciplines on the professions, there is also a potential for some confusion, since that someone is a “professional” is a different statement from calling some set of firms and individuals and government agencies as related to a particular “profession”. Other observers of this book have made a similar point. The focus of the book is largely, I think, on professions rather than professionals, although there are discussions of both.
An additional point to note is that all the work in a profession (or performed by a professional) is not the same. Rather, it is useful to distinguish between particular jobs and the different tasks that comprise them and that in summary constitute what professionals do. So if we are analyzing the effects of technological change on professions and professionals, then one should recognize that different tasks will be affected in different ways to to different degrees by new technology. Then, the problem becomes who should do what, how should the technologically changed tasks be reorganized, and who should be engaged to perform which tasks. This opens the ways for new professions, paraprofessionals, various “extender” jobs, and other sorts of assistants. In addition, technology may make it possible for consumers to perform tasks that had previously been performed by professionals in the old days.
So what is the future of the professions? It is complex. In the short term, or longer, professions are likely to remain, but more people will be able to get more access to professional services. The advent of new technology will likely be an improvement for consumers and even for the professionals who remain. What else will change? It is hard to summarize but the picture presented makes sense and is even plausible given what we already know about how technology can change people’s lives.
I expected more from the book. If one has kept pace with the popular literature (and some scholarly literature on the professions) there is not much new here, but it is useful to have it all assembled with an editorial direction. The tone and direction errs in the direction of technological optimism with a bit of “gee whiz” from time to time. But the authors are on target and know what they are doing. I grew up in a world where much extra money could be earned as a paralegal in large prestigious firms and that world has completely changed. Now the prospect of attending law school is far from a sure bet for future prosperity. The developments tracked in other professions (consulting and auditing, for example) seem reasonably up to date, although I did not see many lots of insights. The authors are aware of the prospects of “big data” and related developments.
The book is longer than it needs to be. Little sub-arguments are thrown in whether or not they have been already covered and one gets the sense of too much repetition. Again, the book is being updated and I am glad the authors are doing that. I hope the new expanded version is even better.
To understand the analytic path, note that while there is a huge research literature in many disciplines on the professions, there is also a potential for some confusion, since that someone is a “professional” is a different statement from calling some set of firms and individuals and government agencies as related to a particular “profession”. Other observers of this book have made a similar point. The focus of the book is largely, I think, on professions rather than professionals, although there are discussions of both.
An additional point to note is that all the work in a profession (or performed by a professional) is not the same. Rather, it is useful to distinguish between particular jobs and the different tasks that comprise them and that in summary constitute what professionals do. So if we are analyzing the effects of technological change on professions and professionals, then one should recognize that different tasks will be affected in different ways to to different degrees by new technology. Then, the problem becomes who should do what, how should the technologically changed tasks be reorganized, and who should be engaged to perform which tasks. This opens the ways for new professions, paraprofessionals, various “extender” jobs, and other sorts of assistants. In addition, technology may make it possible for consumers to perform tasks that had previously been performed by professionals in the old days.
So what is the future of the professions? It is complex. In the short term, or longer, professions are likely to remain, but more people will be able to get more access to professional services. The advent of new technology will likely be an improvement for consumers and even for the professionals who remain. What else will change? It is hard to summarize but the picture presented makes sense and is even plausible given what we already know about how technology can change people’s lives.
I expected more from the book. If one has kept pace with the popular literature (and some scholarly literature on the professions) there is not much new here, but it is useful to have it all assembled with an editorial direction. The tone and direction errs in the direction of technological optimism with a bit of “gee whiz” from time to time. But the authors are on target and know what they are doing. I grew up in a world where much extra money could be earned as a paralegal in large prestigious firms and that world has completely changed. Now the prospect of attending law school is far from a sure bet for future prosperity. The developments tracked in other professions (consulting and auditing, for example) seem reasonably up to date, although I did not see many lots of insights. The authors are aware of the prospects of “big data” and related developments.
The book is longer than it needs to be. Little sub-arguments are thrown in whether or not they have been already covered and one gets the sense of too much repetition. Again, the book is being updated and I am glad the authors are doing that. I hope the new expanded version is even better.
April 18, 2016
The one thing you shouldn't predict, the old joke goes, is the future.
So this is just one attempt. But it's in line with others. Even though the transformations are seismic in profession after profession, people I know say it can't happen to them.
It probably already is.
What technology did to the skilled and unskilled worker, is now eating up and transforming the middle class professional. With unpredctable social and economic and political consequences.
This is worth reading and thinking about
So this is just one attempt. But it's in line with others. Even though the transformations are seismic in profession after profession, people I know say it can't happen to them.
It probably already is.
What technology did to the skilled and unskilled worker, is now eating up and transforming the middle class professional. With unpredctable social and economic and political consequences.
This is worth reading and thinking about
July 25, 2016
This is strong, fascinating and provocative book. Part polemic, part techno-celebration, this book is valuable for scholars of the internet and scholars of the professions.
Aligning globalization and disintermediation, Richard and Daniel Susskind probe a post-professions future, a world where expertise is distributed widely and digitally.
The weakness of this monograph is that the internet is configured as a panacea, medication, boon and benefit. The strength is that it offers provocations to think about knowledge, teaching and learning in new ways.
Aligning globalization and disintermediation, Richard and Daniel Susskind probe a post-professions future, a world where expertise is distributed widely and digitally.
The weakness of this monograph is that the internet is configured as a panacea, medication, boon and benefit. The strength is that it offers provocations to think about knowledge, teaching and learning in new ways.
May 20, 2018
That technology will transform the way we think, we work and we see the world is a foregone conclusion. what is however of relevance is the role we will play in it, will we as is said, focus on higher order thinking and enjoy leisure while machines handle the redundant tasks or will we become inconsequential and our skills obsolete as machines become sharper and intuitive. Globally this is the discussion that is slowly captivating the mindspace of people and policy makers alike. In a world where the computing powers of machines is increasing at an exponential pace machines are already smarter than most of us, as machines begin developing cognitive skills and start pushing through the turing test limit, the obsolescence of humans is becoming a reality which is not too far off. How we skill up, how we prepare and what we do to equip the current and prospective generations is going to be the absolute key here. Jobs are going to be taken over by machines and new ones will be created but will they be enough for the employable population then or will it be more of what we already have now in terms of jobless growth only to be called as technology induced unemployment. we live in times of great disruptions with ominous repercussions for the future. Both omission and commission of technology will be major steps to ponder over, as none is without risk.
June 18, 2021
Very detailed account of the possibilities of the near and far future replacement of professional labour by machines and AI. Definitely food for thought and worth pouring back over to contemplate. The book is, as most things with AI, slightly out of dare after not so many years, but the case studies are very solid. A must read for people who want to understand the path of society during the slow revolution of AI.
January 13, 2017
Book by two authors who have regularly written on the development of the legal profession – now turning their attention to all professions. The book is engagingly (almost conversationally) written – often whole sections dive into academic theory, but these are explicitly signposted, the conclusions set out in advance and in summary and the reader openly invited to skip them if not interested in the details.
The book begins with a review of the history of the professions – which crucially the authors link to a world of printed text and an explosion of knowledge which no human could in such a world expect to master across and all areas. This introduction culminates in what it calls the grand bargain, that
They then set out what they see as areas where the grand bargain is breaking down, the two most crucial of which are that: most people and organisations can no longer afford the services of first rate professionals; that the bargain rests on (and in fact is entirely based around) increasingly antiquated techniques for creating and sharing knowledge.
They then consider the role of technology and artificial intelligence and argue that people mis-under estimate this role in two key but different ways: technological myopia (for example not seeing the role that empathy could play in future AI systems) and the AI fallacy (that the only way to develop systems is to replicate the thinking process of human specialists – they quote a number of times by contrast Deep Blue and the brute force approach it applied successfully to defeat human chess experts, and argue that similar brute force techniques using Big Data techniques can replace and outperform professional expertise and judgement).
They then set out examples across various professions of where they believe their revolution is already occurring (crowd sourcing, the use of online systems, access to online videos, big data and data mining techniques, expert systems like IBM’s Watson).
This is followed by an excellent section summarising patterns which seem to apply across the professions: the move away from bespoke services, bypassed gatekeepers, the more-for-less procurement challenge, technological transformation (automation and the different concept of innovation) emerging skills (new communication techniques, data mastery, use of technology, diversification), the reconfiguration of work (routinization, disintermediation, decomposition), new labour models (offshoring/arbitrage, para-professionals, flexible self-employment), more options for recipients (online selection and self-help plus open source collaboration), new preoccupations of professional firms (liberalisation, globalisation, specialisation, new business models, fewer partnerships and consolidation) and an overall trend of demystification.
The second section of the book is perhaps the least enjoyable (and best read as reference) – setting out two key sets of background theories on how information/technology and the production/distribution of knowledge have, are and will evolve. The key part of these sections is their conclusion: that technological and economic trends mean that in the full-fledged technology based Internet future, many if not most of the tasks which are currently the exclusive realm of professionals will instead be performed by increasingly capable machines autonomously or by equipping non-specialist users (often the reciepents).
They then consider the consequences of and objections to this thesis – many of these they reject based on a strong view that the professions have increasingly let down their side of the grand bargain and that technology is eroding the very base on which it was struck.
Two interesting areas are: their consideration of how a pipeline of future experts will be maintained (they suggest three ideas: a return to apprenticeship, parallel checking of the work of the automated systems and e-learning); what future skills may replace those of professionals (they argue for a range of roles: craftspeople – the real remaining experts, assistants and para-professionals, empathizers to deliver difficult advise (they argue that few existing professionals have great skills here), R&D workers, knowledge engineers, process analysts, moderators (of on line communities/Wikis), designers, system providers, data scientists, system engineers.
Overall an extremely thought provoking book.
The book begins with a review of the history of the professions – which crucially the authors link to a world of printed text and an explosion of knowledge which no human could in such a world expect to master across and all areas. This introduction culminates in what it calls the grand bargain, that
In acknowledgement of and in return or their expertise, experience and judgement, which they are expected to apply in delivering affordable, accessible, up to date, reassuring and reliable services, and on the understanding that they will curate and updated their knowledge and methods, train their members, set and enforce standards for the quality of their work, and that they will only admit appropriately qualified individuals into their ranks, and that they will always act honestly in good faith, putting the interests of clients ahead of their own; society places its trust in the professions by granting them exclusivity over a wide range of socially significant services and activities, by paying them a fair wage, by conferring upon them independence, autonomy, rights of self-determination, and by according them respect and status.
They then set out what they see as areas where the grand bargain is breaking down, the two most crucial of which are that: most people and organisations can no longer afford the services of first rate professionals; that the bargain rests on (and in fact is entirely based around) increasingly antiquated techniques for creating and sharing knowledge.
They then consider the role of technology and artificial intelligence and argue that people mis-under estimate this role in two key but different ways: technological myopia (for example not seeing the role that empathy could play in future AI systems) and the AI fallacy (that the only way to develop systems is to replicate the thinking process of human specialists – they quote a number of times by contrast Deep Blue and the brute force approach it applied successfully to defeat human chess experts, and argue that similar brute force techniques using Big Data techniques can replace and outperform professional expertise and judgement).
They then set out examples across various professions of where they believe their revolution is already occurring (crowd sourcing, the use of online systems, access to online videos, big data and data mining techniques, expert systems like IBM’s Watson).
This is followed by an excellent section summarising patterns which seem to apply across the professions: the move away from bespoke services, bypassed gatekeepers, the more-for-less procurement challenge, technological transformation (automation and the different concept of innovation) emerging skills (new communication techniques, data mastery, use of technology, diversification), the reconfiguration of work (routinization, disintermediation, decomposition), new labour models (offshoring/arbitrage, para-professionals, flexible self-employment), more options for recipients (online selection and self-help plus open source collaboration), new preoccupations of professional firms (liberalisation, globalisation, specialisation, new business models, fewer partnerships and consolidation) and an overall trend of demystification.
The second section of the book is perhaps the least enjoyable (and best read as reference) – setting out two key sets of background theories on how information/technology and the production/distribution of knowledge have, are and will evolve. The key part of these sections is their conclusion: that technological and economic trends mean that in the full-fledged technology based Internet future, many if not most of the tasks which are currently the exclusive realm of professionals will instead be performed by increasingly capable machines autonomously or by equipping non-specialist users (often the reciepents).
They then consider the consequences of and objections to this thesis – many of these they reject based on a strong view that the professions have increasingly let down their side of the grand bargain and that technology is eroding the very base on which it was struck.
Two interesting areas are: their consideration of how a pipeline of future experts will be maintained (they suggest three ideas: a return to apprenticeship, parallel checking of the work of the automated systems and e-learning); what future skills may replace those of professionals (they argue for a range of roles: craftspeople – the real remaining experts, assistants and para-professionals, empathizers to deliver difficult advise (they argue that few existing professionals have great skills here), R&D workers, knowledge engineers, process analysts, moderators (of on line communities/Wikis), designers, system providers, data scientists, system engineers.
Overall an extremely thought provoking book.
December 12, 2017
Susskind and Susskind make some interesting projections about the way digitization will reorganize knowledge. As they say, we're a while away from their end state. Watching how new companies and new professionals begin to organize their work may give some indication of whether Susskind and Susskind have the right idea.
July 23, 2018
Father and son team, write an extremely well researched book where they try and look into the future. In doing this they explain how we got where we are today, the objections people have to change and why and then based on the patterns we see around us in Technology, Social Media, Artificial Intelligence etc. These are all disruptors to the current profession status quo. Now is the time to stop and think and appraise your current position or get left behind.
Read
March 26, 2023In the event of a crash landing each passenger should ensure that their seat belt is securely fastened and tuck their arms legs and head into their body. Brace for impact.
September 2, 2018
The Future of the Professions: How Technology Will Transform the Work of Human Experts
Richard Susskind, Daniel Susskind
The authors, a father and son team, analyze the fields of law, education, accounting, medicine, architecture, and others, to assess how technology has effected their practice, and how that practice, and the tasks within it, may and will change in the next few decades. Their approach is analytical, understandable, supportable; their results may frighten some and motivate others.
The first third of the book gives one an understanding of legal, ethical, and common needs that lead to what we might call professional practice. Some of the key identifiers of a profession include specialized knowledge, advice to those less knowledgeable, continuing education, a high standard of ethics, and a value to society in general. The authors give examples of how those professions changes over time, and in recent years, how those changes have accelerated.
The next third of this book, titled "Theory", discusses the nature of information, technology, and the means of distributing that information. This is very helpful in assessing trends and the increasing tempo of technology progress. It also helps one understand some of the pressures on the professions to improve their delivery, with respect to cost and breadth. For example, many people cannot afford a lawyer; if they could, then maybe they would be better off, and so would society in general.
The final third of the book deals with the implications of the current trends. We see that parts of these professions can be automated. Once some of the easy pickings are done, then artificial intelligence is better able to pick off more. In the long run, this iteration will/can continue to reduce the role of the professional. For example, the lawyer may not need to personally explain all the details to the client. That may be done by a combination of technology and/or skilled, empathetic briefers/guides.
Is this a fearful future? Yes, for many who think of a job-for-life future. For others, perhaps those with a continual interest in learning and a need for variety, the years ahead may be exciting and rewarding. Learning and adaptability seem more important than ever.
Richard Susskind, Daniel Susskind
The authors, a father and son team, analyze the fields of law, education, accounting, medicine, architecture, and others, to assess how technology has effected their practice, and how that practice, and the tasks within it, may and will change in the next few decades. Their approach is analytical, understandable, supportable; their results may frighten some and motivate others.
The first third of the book gives one an understanding of legal, ethical, and common needs that lead to what we might call professional practice. Some of the key identifiers of a profession include specialized knowledge, advice to those less knowledgeable, continuing education, a high standard of ethics, and a value to society in general. The authors give examples of how those professions changes over time, and in recent years, how those changes have accelerated.
The next third of this book, titled "Theory", discusses the nature of information, technology, and the means of distributing that information. This is very helpful in assessing trends and the increasing tempo of technology progress. It also helps one understand some of the pressures on the professions to improve their delivery, with respect to cost and breadth. For example, many people cannot afford a lawyer; if they could, then maybe they would be better off, and so would society in general.
The final third of the book deals with the implications of the current trends. We see that parts of these professions can be automated. Once some of the easy pickings are done, then artificial intelligence is better able to pick off more. In the long run, this iteration will/can continue to reduce the role of the professional. For example, the lawyer may not need to personally explain all the details to the client. That may be done by a combination of technology and/or skilled, empathetic briefers/guides.
Is this a fearful future? Yes, for many who think of a job-for-life future. For others, perhaps those with a continual interest in learning and a need for variety, the years ahead may be exciting and rewarding. Learning and adaptability seem more important than ever.
November 13, 2015
The Future of Professions really makes you look at how social classes have been changing throughout history, and how professionals now are looked upon compared to professionals before. It also points out how where you go to school, who you know, how good you are can impact professionals, past, present and future with the elitist mentality.
This is an interesting book that really takes a look at the future of a list of professions. I found this intriguing especially since there has been some changes recently impacting jobs like a cashier at McDonald's. Not long after the minimum wage increased to $15, kiosks have been ordered and installed in some areas across the U.S. to replace the cashiers. This is not one of the top careers, but if this can happen here, what other jobs can be replaced by a machine in the future? A kiosk is still a pretty simple machine and will only improve. We are surrounded by smart technology everywhere we go, and it just keeps getting smarter.
Daniel and Richard explain the concept of the grand bargain and how the common people have given over permission and authority to ‘professionals’. The authors explain that this bargain has effectively given the keys to a number of professionals who make a lot of money from society because we are entirely dependent upon them for their knowledge, experience and expertise. They go on to discuss seven different models to make practical expertise available in society. One is the traditional model currently being used, while the others are future possibilities dependent upon technological advances.
The implications in this book are a little scary to think about, especially how any changes might impact my family.
This is an interesting book that really takes a look at the future of a list of professions. I found this intriguing especially since there has been some changes recently impacting jobs like a cashier at McDonald's. Not long after the minimum wage increased to $15, kiosks have been ordered and installed in some areas across the U.S. to replace the cashiers. This is not one of the top careers, but if this can happen here, what other jobs can be replaced by a machine in the future? A kiosk is still a pretty simple machine and will only improve. We are surrounded by smart technology everywhere we go, and it just keeps getting smarter.
Daniel and Richard explain the concept of the grand bargain and how the common people have given over permission and authority to ‘professionals’. The authors explain that this bargain has effectively given the keys to a number of professionals who make a lot of money from society because we are entirely dependent upon them for their knowledge, experience and expertise. They go on to discuss seven different models to make practical expertise available in society. One is the traditional model currently being used, while the others are future possibilities dependent upon technological advances.
The implications in this book are a little scary to think about, especially how any changes might impact my family.
January 26, 2020
https://book.douban.com/review/10136410/
大交易是什么
大交易实际上将专业人士定位成了守门人——他们拥有大量的知识、经验、专业技能，构成了人类社会和经济活动的基础。这是一笔有着重大意义的交易，整个社会都仰仗着这笔交易正常运作；这也是一种昂贵的制度安排——举例来说，想一想整个国家的医疗服务、教育系统、税务机构以及诉讼机构的总成本。
令人不安的问题
这些专业机构有着六大问题：经济、技术、心理、道德、服务质量及其不可解读性。这些缺陷共同存在，随着时间的推移，越来越成为问题。这些问题理应提醒我们重新修订大交易的条款，在专业机构、国家和社会之间重新寻求新的平衡。
首先，即经济问题。大多数个人和机构无法承担一流专业人士的收费标准；大多数经济体都挣扎着维持支付他们的专业服务，包括教育、诉讼系统以及健康服务。只有富人或者购买了足够保险的人群才能够负担得起最高级的专业人士的服务，包括医生、律师、会计师以及管理咨询师。在许多专业领域中，专业知识通常被看成是一种稀缺资源。专业知识本身的供给并不存在问题，而是能够出现在现场并提供服务的专家数量有限。真正的局限性在于目前组织和交付专业服务的方法，通常需要专家亲临现场，进行面对面的互动。即使对于世界上规模最大的机构来说，专业服务的价格也被认为是过分昂贵的。许多首席执行官和首席财务官都坚信在专业服务上的花销（特别是法律、税务以及咨询）应当被大幅削减。
经济问题其实并不是关于专业机构所提供的服务质量的担忧，它其实是负担能力问题。专家技能没有得到平均分配，这是一种不平等：我们为人类的专业知识搭建了辉煌宫殿，却只有极少数人得到允许，可以进入宫殿。
至今为止，专业工作相关的知识都储存在专业人士的头脑里、书籍里、档案柜里，以及这些机构所制定的标准和系统之中。然而这和技术互联网社会中大多数信息和知识的传播方式并不一致。
大交易的第三个缺陷在于心理因素。不让人们了解自己的问题，阻止他们参与解决的过程，会使人丧气。
在技术互联网社会中，有许多创造和分享知识的新方式，使专业知识变得负担得起、易于获得，而且启用不同方法的益处将远大于坏处。
第五个问题在于专业人士的表现并不合格
各行各业正在发生的改变—医疗
“远程医疗”应用也越来越广泛，这种做法使用互联网视频连接，用以开展远距离医疗工作。
远程手术技术也正在快速发展，通过高级机器人的协助，身处美国的外科医生团队可以取出一个身在法国，距离6000公里以外的女病人的胆囊。
谷歌和欧洲的诺华制药公司（Novartis）联手开发了一种“智能隐形眼镜”来监测血糖水平，替代了原先需要戳破手指提取血样的方式
一个EyeNetra智能手机外接设备的成本大概只有几美金，其功能是一个可移动的眼部测试器件，功效和我们所熟悉的几千美金一台的验光设备一样。
诺贝尔奖得主理查德·费曼七十年前曾预言过我们有一天可能会“吞下外科医生”，这一预言已经成真——已经有微小的纳米机器人能够在我们体内游动、拍摄体内图片、运送药物、精准定向攻击特定的细胞，这些才能让最高明的外科医生都自叹不如。
引自第1页
各行各业正在发生的改变—教育
一个普通学生如果接受一对一辅导，他将来的表现可能超越98%去普通课堂接受教育的普通学生
在《与大数据同行：学习和教育的未来》这本书里，作者描述了传统教育中所使用的为数不多的数据点——测验成绩、报告卡片、出勤记录等——在庞大得多、精彩得多的数据集面前是如何黯然失色的。丰富的数据被收集起来，从学生点击了屏幕哪个位置，到学生回答一个问题花了多长时间。而且成千上万个学生的信息都可以被收集、存储起来。一门新的学科——“学习分析”，正在试图解读收集到的这些信息。
传统意义上的教师、家庭教师、讲师都面临着挑战。社会不再那么需要“讲台上的圣人”，更为需要“身边的向导”
各行各业正在发生的改变—法律
大的律师事务所正在成立新的劳务部门来应对成本压力。律师们把法律工作分解成更加基础的任务，寻找替代性方案来完成那些更加日常和重复性的工作，比如说法律文件审阅、尽职调查、日常性的合同起草，以及基础的法律研究。这样一来，有些法律事务被外包甚至离岸外包，交给律师助理，打散分包，然后向客户收取固定价格。
在众多系统中有一个重要类别，它们的主要功能是系统化地生成法律文件。这些“文件汇编系统”通过和用户进行简单互动沟通后，能够自动起草生成高质量的文件。
大数据技术为系统提供支撑，此类系统能够比诉讼专家更精确地预测庭审判决的结果。法庭也开始受到根本性的挑战。法律专家开始质疑法院所提供的到底是一种服务还是一个场所；产生纠纷的人和机构是否真的需要集结到一个实体法庭上来解决他们的纷争。
一个替代性选项就是虚拟法庭。这种形式已经用在从容易受到攻击的证人身上采集证据或者为刑事案件进行预审，它的形式和传统的法庭没什么两样——律师、涉案各方或者证人——通过某种形式的视频接入出席。
各行各业正在发生的改变—管理咨询
2013年，克莱顿·克里斯坦森在《哈佛商业评论》上发表了一篇文章，谈论“处在被颠覆的风口浪尖的咨询行业”，文中说，咨询行业的变化是“不可避免的”，那些以前帮助别人管理困境的人“即将被颠覆”。
“50年以后，类似麦肯锡这样的管理咨询公司将不复存在”
以前他们公司可能花费了高达80%的时间来进行信息收集。
数字化的流程意味着相比聘用顾问花时间手工统计人数、监控存货、处理各种数据表和数据库，客户将更加愿意自行收集基本的内部数据。
调整相关设定后，IBM的沃森计算机也可以扮演“企业高管顾问”的角色——它扫描各种战略文档，学习消化会议内容，并且针对不同问题根据它的观点提供分析性的建议——比如说，对于给出可供投资的公司的建议。Kensho是高盛投资的一个系统，可以用简明语言回答本来需要大量人工调研的金融问题（例如，如果发生隐私信息恐慌，技术类股票会如何表现等）。
各行各业正在发生的改变—税务与审计
在意大利，税务机构使用“Redditometro”系统，搜索已有的数据，估算某一个特定的纳税人在某一年度可能的开支——如果估算结果比纳税人在申报单上所填的要高出20%以上，他们就会要求纳税人做出解释。
在计算机时代，只有1%的税务工作者是安全的。在他们所审阅的700种职业之中，税务工作被认为是十大“风险最高”的职业之一。目前全球每年有61亿小时被用于税务申报工作，相当于300万个全职工作岗位，因此发生的变化将非常巨大。
各行各业正在发生的改变—建筑
新技术还创造了新的可能性：可以用三维模拟来进行演示、探讨方案、分解方案、重新组合、颠倒上下、放大缩小，并且可以采用不同的形状和结构来进行无数实验。
当项目变得数字化、更加易于分享之后，建筑项目也变得更容易利用各种不同背景的专业人才——建筑师、结构工程师、机械顾问、电力顾问、设计师、承包商、供应商——每个人都有各自的工作模式，收集自己所需要的数据，关注建筑的不同方面。这改变了以前建筑师掌管项目，统筹每项任务的局面。
人们不再需要依赖手工绘图或者CAD草图，这些在线的BIM平台可以把各路人士在同一个项目上互不相干的工作成果整合到一起，组合成一个巨大的、共享的虚拟模型。
另外还有可以解决非常特定设计问题的其他CAD系统，例如Ply Gem的Designed Exterior是一个免费的平台，它帮助用户完成房屋的外部设计（窗户、护墙板、排水系统等）;TimberTech的Deck Designer是另一个免费平台，帮助人们设计户外地板，还有许多仅针对厨房、浴室、书架设计等的设计平台。
把这些系统结合在一起，使得人们很有可能像斯蒂芬·库鲁兹（Steven Kurutz）在《纽约时报》里写的那样，“完全跳过建筑师”。
传统建筑通过手工制作混凝土浇筑使用的模具来得到砖块，这一制造环节构成了混凝土建筑成本的60%。现在，Gramazio & Kohler公司的Mesh-Mould使用一个机器臂，前端装有一个小的3D打印喷头，可以在建设过程中直接“打印”混凝土砖块。
此外，还有一些其他机器人能够完成涂油漆、浇注、打磨、焊接等工作。
2014年，哈佛大学的工程师建造了由1000个机器人组成的群体，它们不需要人为干预，能够通过自行组织，组成一些复杂的二维构造（类似于一群鱼或者一队蚂蚁）。
一个时代的终结
20世纪90年代后期，互联网泡沫盛行之际，人们常说一个“互联网元年”里所发生的明显变化的速度和氛围相当于传统行业在7个普通年度的变化。
人工智能给人来带来的影响
这一章里，专注于探究并回应那些最重大的反对意见和焦虑情绪。八大疑问：
第一，人们担忧将失去值得信赖的机构——没有这些专业机构，我们要如何保护自己免受冒牌专家的欺骗？
第二，专业机构所拥有的道德品质将不复存在——如果所有专业领域都得到解放，我们能否安心让市场和市场价值观占据主导地位？
第三，人们将失去那些老式的行事方式——我们是否需要保护传统的专业技能和手艺？
第四，人们为无法当面接触而感到不自在——保留面对面互动是否重要？
第五，同理心——机器如何与用户产生共鸣？
第六，所剩下的工作将是什么样的——未来是否还存在有意义的、能让人实现抱负的工作？
第七，引入新的模式会让正在学习的专家们无所适从——当机器已经在执行本属于他们的日常工作，他们要如何继续成长下去呢？
第八，未来的角色——未来的专业人士能干什么，我们要把他们往什么方向培养？
关于信任��可靠、准信任
在教育领域，学生信赖可汗学院这样的在线平台，即使这里许多知名的老师都没有经过任何认证；
在新闻领域，享有盛誉的作者在社交媒体上拥有大量信任他们的粉丝（在推特上获得蓝标认证），但他们不需要加入任何报业集团；
在税务方面，人们信赖并使用税务申报软件TurboTax，即便他们从未和注册会计师面对面坐下来，一起研究他们的特定税务问题。这种新的信任关系已经在专业领域发展起来，并且在各个领域不断自我复制着。
关于技艺失传
哲学家朱立安·巴吉尼研究过一种类似的担忧，传统咖啡冲泡技艺正在逐步失传。
历史上，咖啡师的工作是相当花费人工的——打开口袋，咖啡豆柔软的、芬芳的味道扑鼻而来，磨豆机一圈圈地工作，压粉锤轻柔地接触，机器咕噜噜地沸腾，最后把咖啡慢慢倒到杯子里。
过去的几年里自动化胶囊咖啡的普及相当迅速。咖啡冲泡的过程被简化成。咖啡冲泡过程中所有的变量，从温度到水流，到咖啡颗粒的粗细程度，都可以通过实验和研究提前进行优化并固定下来。成果就是足以媲美盲测中顶尖水平且品质始终如一的咖啡。
我们本当重视这些人类的技艺，但是当世界上这么多人都还享受不到法律建议、像样的教育甚至基础医疗，这种对于技艺的偏好（通常出于怀旧）就显得不那么迫切了。我们还处在满足温饱需求阶段，无视成果而选择保护技艺在目前看来是一种无力负担的奢侈
同理心
许多专业人士坚持认为人际互动是他们日常工作的核心——疾病缠身的患者、遇上麻烦的客户、心烦意乱的学生、身处困境的生意人，都至少应该有人和他们进行面对面的接触。这不仅是为了帮助他们找到值得信任的顾问，同样重要的是，具有同理心的专家更容易去理解客户的情绪状态——甚至能感受并分享对方的痛苦和快乐。
令人遗憾的情况是，实际上，许多专家其实非常缺乏同理心。有时候他们甚至需要传达坏消息——疾病无法治愈、大笔税金到期、学生不幸留级、宠物无法救治、责任无法避免
同理心观点的另一个问题在于有证据表明有时人们更希望和机器打交道，而不是直接和同类接触，尤其是涉及敏感或尴尬问题的情况下。
成为专家——我们要把年轻人培养成什么样？
如果专业工作中的工匠手艺已经开始淡出历史舞台，将来由各种专业人士助理、知识工程、经验社区、嵌入式知识、机器生成的经验取而代之，那么有一个重要问题必须得到解答——我们在把这些年轻的生力军培养成什么样？我们担心的是，目前这些精心设计、复杂精细的培训方法和机构都在以20世纪专业人士为模板去培养新人，并没有把技术互联网时代的各种特征，比如在线形式会主导服务领域、日益强大的机器将开始取代人类完成复杂工作等考虑在内。
不仅仅是年轻人所接受的培训可能是不对的，更糟糕的是政策制定机构根本没有意识到这个问题。这些政策制定者大体上都属于老一代，他们通常对根本性的变革持怀疑态度，但又同时负责制定教育政策。
找不到未来的社会角色
我们可以开始尝试性地描述，在后专业时代里人类的角色、应当承担的任务和活动。我们把它们总结为12种未来的“角色”。
手艺人
助手
专业人士助理
同理心提供方
研发人员
知识工程师
流程分析师
网站管理员
设计师
系统提供方
数据科学家
系统工程师
技术对专业工作的影响
我们预计过些时间——专业工作领域的确将发生技术性失业。人类占据优势的那些专业任务类型将会面临增长率不足的问题，因此无法保证多数专业人士能够得到全面就业。我们无法为这三个问题提供确切答案，因此，我们不能预测那时的失业问题的规模。
但是当我们把本书中的研究所得都考虑进来，有三大理由让我们确信失业确实是大势所趋。
理由一，机器变得能干的趋势将持续下去，它们会逐步缩小自己在人类具备优势的那些项目上的差距；理由二，专业人士无法依赖新需求或者潜在需求为他们创造就业，因为机器往往能够更好、更高效地去执行这些新任务；理由三，尽管根据我们的设想，有些任务需要进行道德判断、承担道德责任，而这些任务都必须由人类来完成，但我们并不认为这些任务的数量能够大到维持目前的专业人士就业规模。最能干、最聪明的专业人士才能坚持到最后——他们能够执行那些不能也不应该由机器执行的任务，以及那些我们主动选择留在人类手中的任务。
但所有这些加在一起，都不足以把赚钱轻松的专业人士维持在目前的人数水平上。
我们预测，专业工作在未来几年里将逐渐消失，但所有这些转型都是逐步发生的，并不是一蹴而就的。
与此同时，还有另一件事值得一提。当我们评价一部机器在执行某种任务时具备优势，我们并不仅仅在表扬它具有更高的生产力，它能够利用更少的投入实现更多产出。我们同时也在评价使用机器或人类的相对成本——使用成本有多昂贵。用经济学语言来看问题，我们必须同时考虑量（生产力水平）和价（成本）。今天，许多技术的生产力都特别高，但它们也都十分昂贵，也就是说，启用它们的时机还没到来。
可行性问题
“公共资源”，还有其他潜在问题。实践经验的所有权和控制权不再属于少数几个大机构了（比如说，专业机构、公司、政府），而变成了由所有参与者共享。公共资源这种方式可能会引发公众提出三个关于可行性的担忧。
第一种是最基本的——究竟为什么会有个人和机构心甘情愿放弃他们对于价值连城的实践经验的所有权和控制权，情愿把它们变成公共资源分享给大家呢，按照之前提到过的理由，难道他们不希望保留排他性权利吗，这样不就等于放弃了自己盈利的机会吗？
第二种疑虑是担心一旦变成公共资源，实践经验可能被滥用。生态学者格伦特·哈丁，把这种现象称为“公地悲剧”。我们能预料到一旦实践经验成了公共资源，大量只顾着自己利益的用户就会过度使用。
第三种情况是担心实践经验成为公共资源后，其相关的创造活动就会变得不足。当一个机构拥有、控制实践经验时，其维护成本和更新迭代责任也就清楚地落在了他们身上。这是大交易的辩护理由之一，但是当公共资源的所有权和控制权都更加分散，应当由谁来承担这些成本？直觉上可以认为这些费用应当由所有拥有者共同承担。但这本身就提出了一个问题：当人们发现不参与承担费用也并不会使得他们被剥夺公共资源权利时，毕竟不付钱，也不影响他们使用实践经验并从中受益。但是，越多的人拒绝参与承担费用，实践经验的产出也就越少。人们越是依赖于别人的贡献和付出，整个社区的贡献就变得越少，能够合理涵盖相关成本的概率也就越低。
实践经验和实体商品是完全不同的。实践经验并不会因为被使用而损耗，它反而具有累积效应，经过反复使用价值反而会越来越高。哈丁害怕公共资源会导致过度使用，因而造成“悲剧”，但就实践经验而言，过度使用的情况是无须顾虑的。知识不会因为使用而贬值，反而在不断使用中累积增值。
知识成为公共资源并不会变成一出“公地悲剧”，反而可能成为卡罗尔·罗斯（Carol Rose）所描述的“公地喜剧”。
大交易是什么
大交易实际上将专业人士定位成了守门人——他们拥有大量的知识、经验、专业技能，构成了人类社会和经济活动的基础。这是一笔有着重大意义的交易，整个社会都仰仗着这笔交易正常运作；这也是一种昂贵的制度安排——举例来说，想一想整个国家的医疗服务、教育系统、税务机构以及诉讼机构的总成本。
令人不安的问题
这些专业机构有着六大问题：经济、技术、心理、道德、服务质量及其不可解读性。这些缺陷共同存在，随着时间的推移，越来越成为问题。这些问题理应提醒我们重新修订大交易的条款，在专业机构、国家和社会之间重新寻求新的平衡。
首先，即经济问题。大多数个人和机构无法承担一流专业人士的收费标准；大多数经济体都挣扎着维持支付他们的专业服务，包括教育、诉讼系统以及健康服务。只有富人或者购买了足够保险的人群才能够负担得起最高级的专业人士的服务，包括医生、律师、会计师以及管理咨询师。在许多专业领域中，专业知识通常被看成是一种稀缺资源。专业知识本身的供给并不存在问题，而是能够出现在现场并提供服务的专家数量有限。真正的局限性在于目前组织和交付专业服务的方法，通常需要专家亲临现场，进行面对面的互动。即使对于世界上规模最大的机构来说，专业服务的价格也被认为是过分昂贵的。许多首席执行官和首席财务官都坚信在专业服务上的花销（特别是法律、税务以及咨询）应当被大幅削减。
经济问题其实并不是关于专业机构所提供的服务质量的担忧，它其实是负担能力问题。专家技能没有得到平均分配，这是一种不平等：我们为人类的专业知识搭建了辉煌宫殿，却只有极少数人得到允许，可以进入宫殿。
至今为止，专业工作相关的知识都储存在专业人士的头脑里、书籍里、档案柜里，以及这些机构所制定的标准和系统之中。然而这和技术互联网社会中大多数信息和知识的传播方式并不一致。
大交易的第三个缺陷在于心理因素。不让人们了解自己的问题，阻止他们参与解决的过程，会使人丧气。
在技术互联网社会中，有许多创造和分享知识的新方式，使专业知识变得负担得起、易于获得，而且启用不同方法的益处将远大于坏处。
第五个问题在于专业人士的表现并不合格
各行各业正在发生的改变—医疗
“远程医疗”应用也越来越广泛，这种做法使用互联网视频连接，用以开展远距离医疗工作。
远程手术技术也正在快速发展，通过高级机器人的协助，身处美国的外科医生团队可以取出一个身在法国，距离6000公里以外的女病人的胆囊。
谷歌和欧洲的诺华制药公司（Novartis）联手开发了一种“智能隐形眼镜”来监测血糖水平，替代了原先需要戳破手指提取血样的方式
一个EyeNetra智能手机外接设备的成本大概只有几美金，其功能是一个可移动的眼部测试器件，功效和我们所熟悉的几千美金一台的验光设备一样。
诺贝尔奖得主理查德·费曼七十年前曾预言过我们有一天可能会“吞下外科医生”，这一预言已经成真——已经有微小的纳米机器人能够在我们体内游动、拍摄体内图片、运送药物、精准定向攻击特定的细胞，这些才能让最高明的外科医生都自叹不如。
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各行各业正在发生的改变—教育
一个普通学生如果接受一对一辅导，他将来的表现可能超越98%去普通课堂接受教育的普通学生
在《与大数据同行：学习和教育的未来》这本书里，作者描述了传统教育中所使用的为数不多的数据点——测验成绩、报告卡片、出勤记录等——在庞大得多、精彩得多的数据集面前是如何黯然失色的。丰富的数据被收集起来，从学生点击了屏幕哪个位置，到学生回答一个问题花了多长时间。而且成千上万个学生的信息都可以被收集、存储起来。一门新的学科——“学习分析”，正在试图解读收集到的这些信息。
传统意义上的教师、家庭教师、讲师都面临着挑战。社会不再那么需要“讲台上的圣人”，更为需要“身边的向导”
各行各业正在发生的改变—法律
大的律师事务所正在成立新的劳务部门来应对成本压力。律师们把法律工作分解成更加基础的任务，寻找替代性方案来完成那些更加日常和重复性的工作，比如说法律文件审阅、尽职调查、日常性的合同起草，以及基础的法律研究。这样一来，有些法律事务被外包甚至离岸外包，交给律师助理，打散分包，然后向客户收取固定价格。
在众多系统中有一个重要类别，它们的主要功能是系统化地生成法律文件。这些“文件汇编系统”通过和用户进行简单互动沟通后，能够自动起草生成高质量的文件。
大数据技术为系统提供支撑，此类系统能够比诉讼专家更精确地预测庭审判决的结果。法庭也开始受到根本性的挑战。法律专家开始质疑法院所提供的到底是一种服务还是一个场所；产生纠纷的人和机构是否真的需要集结到一个实体法庭上来解决他们的纷争。
一个替代性选项就是虚拟法庭。这种形式已经用在从容易受到攻击的证人身上采集证据或者为刑事案件进行预审，它的形式和传统的法庭没什么两样——律师、涉案各方或者证人——通过某种形式的视频接入出席。
各行各业正在发生的改变—管理咨询
2013年，克莱顿·克里斯坦森在《哈佛商业评论》上发表了一篇文章，谈论“处在被颠覆的风口浪尖的咨询行业”，文中说，咨询行业的变化是“不可避免的”，那些以前帮助别人管理困境的人“即将被颠覆”。
“50年以后，类似麦肯锡这样的管理咨询公司将不复存在”
以前他们公司可能花费了高达80%的时间来进行信息收集。
数字化的流程意味着相比聘用顾问花时间手工统计人数、监控存货、处理各种数据表和数据库，客户将更加愿意自行收集基本的内部数据。
调整相关设定后，IBM的沃森计算机也可以扮演“企业高管顾问”的角色——它扫描各种战略文档，学习消化会议内容，并且针对不同问题根据它的观点提供分析性的建议——比如说，对于给出可供投资的公司的建议。Kensho是高盛投资的一个系统，可以用简明语言回答本来需要大量人工调研的金融问题（例如，如果发生隐私信息恐慌，技术类股票会如何表现等）。
各行各业正在发生的改变—税务与审计
在意大利，税务机构使用“Redditometro”系统，搜索已有的数据，估算某一个特定的纳税人在某一年度可能的开支——如果估算结果比纳税人在申报单上所填的要高出20%以上，他们就会要求纳税人做出解释。
在计算机时代，只有1%的税务工作者是安全的。在他们所审阅的700种职业之中，税务工作被认为是十大“风险最高”的职业之一。目前全球每年有61亿小时被用于税务申报工作，相当于300万个全职工作岗位，因此发生的变化将非常巨大。
各行各业正在发生的改变—建筑
新技术还创造了新的可能性：可以用三维模拟来进行演示、探讨方案、分解方案、重新组合、颠倒上下、放大缩小，并且可以采用不同的形状和结构来进行无数实验。
当项目变得数字化、更加易于分享之后，建筑项目也变得更容易利用各种不同背景的专业人才——建筑师、结构工程师、机械顾问、电力顾问、设计师、承包商、供应商——每个人都有各自的工作模式，收集自己所需要的数据，关注建筑的不同方面。这改变了以前建筑师掌管项目，统筹每项任务的局面。
人们不再需要依赖手工绘图或者CAD草图，这些在线的BIM平台可以把各路人士在同一个项目上互不相干的工作成果整合到一起，组合成一个巨大的、共享的虚拟模型。
另外还有可以解决非常特定设计问题的其他CAD系统，例如Ply Gem的Designed Exterior是一个免费的平台，它帮助用户完成房屋的外部设计（窗户、护墙板、排水系统等）;TimberTech的Deck Designer是另一个免费平台，帮助人们设计户外地板，还有许多仅针对厨房、浴室、书架设计等的设计平台。
把这些系统结合在一起，使得人们很有可能像斯蒂芬·库鲁兹（Steven Kurutz）在《纽约时报》里写的那样，“完全跳过建筑师”。
传统建筑通过手工制作混凝土浇筑使用的模具来得到砖块，这一制造环节构成了混凝土建筑成本的60%。现在，Gramazio & Kohler公司的Mesh-Mould使用一个机器臂，前端装有一个小的3D打印喷头，可以在建设过程中直接“打印”混凝土砖块。
此外，还有一些其他机器人能够完成涂油漆、浇注、打磨、焊接等工作。
2014年，哈佛大学的工程师建造了由1000个机器人组成的群体，它们不需要人为干预，能够通过自行组织，组成一些复杂的二维构造（类似于一群鱼或者一队蚂蚁）。
一个时代的终结
20世纪90年代后期，互联网泡沫盛行之际，人们常说一个“互联网元年”里所发生的明显变化的速度和氛围相当于传统行业在7个普通年度的变化。
人工智能给人来带来的影响
这一章里，专注于探究并回应那些最重大的反对意见和焦虑情绪。八大疑问：
第一，人们担忧将失去值得信赖的机构——没有这些专业机构，我们要如何保护自己免受冒牌专家的欺骗？
第二，专业机构所拥有的道德品质将不复存在——如果所有专业领域都得到解放，我们能否安心让市场和市场价值观占据主导地位？
第三，人们将失去那些老式的行事方式——我们是否需要保护传统的专业技能和手艺？
第四，人们为无法当面接触而感到不自在——保留面对面互动是否重要？
第五，同理心——机器如何与用户产生共鸣？
第六，所剩下的工作将是什么样的——未来是否还存在有意义的、能让人实现抱负的工作？
第七，引入新的模式会让正在学习的专家们无所适从——当机器已经在执行本属于他们的日常工作，他们要如何继续成长下去呢？
第八，未来的角色——未来的专业人士能干什么，我们要把他们往什么方向培养？
关于信任��可靠、准信任
在教育领域，学生信赖可汗学院这样的在线平台，即使这里许多知名的老师都没有经过任何认证；
在新闻领域，享有盛誉的作者在社交媒体上拥有大量信任他们的粉丝（在推特上获得蓝标认证），但他们不需要加入任何报业集团；
在税务方面，人们信赖并使用税务申报软件TurboTax，即便他们从未和注册会计师面对面坐下来，一起研究他们的特定税务问题。这种新的信任关系已经在专业领域发展起来，并且在各个领域不断自我复制着。
关于技艺失传
哲学家朱立安·巴吉尼研究过一种类似的担忧，传统咖啡冲泡技艺正在逐步失传。
历史上，咖啡师的工作是相当花费人工的——打开口袋，咖啡豆柔软的、芬芳的味道扑鼻而来，磨豆机一圈圈地工作，压粉锤轻柔地接触，机器咕噜噜地沸腾，最后把咖啡慢慢倒到杯子里。
过去的几年里自动化胶囊咖啡的普及相当迅速。咖啡冲泡的过程被简化成。咖啡冲泡过程中所有的变量，从温度到水流，到咖啡颗粒的粗细程度，都可以通过实验和研究提前进行优化并固定下来。成果就是足以媲美盲测中顶尖水平且品质始终如一的咖啡。
我们本当重视这些人类的技艺，但是当世界上这么多人都还享受不到法律建议、像样的教育甚至基础医疗，这种对于技艺的偏好（通常出于怀旧）就显得不那么迫切了。我们还处在满足温饱需求阶段，无视成果而选择保护技艺在目前看来是一种无力负担的奢侈
同理心
许多专业人士坚持认为人际互动是他们日常工作的核心——疾病缠身的患者、遇上麻烦的客户、心烦意乱的学生、身处困境的生意人，都至少应该有人和他们进行面对面的接触。这不仅是为了帮助他们找到值得信任的顾问，同样重要的是，具有同理心的专家更容易去理解客户的情绪状态——甚至能感受并分享对方的痛苦和快乐。
令人遗憾的情况是，实际上，许多专家其实非常缺乏同理心。有时候他们甚至需要传达坏消息——疾病无法治愈、大笔税金到期、学生不幸留级、宠物无法救治、责任无法避免
同理心观点的另一个问题在于有证据表明有时人们更希望和机器打交道，而不是直接和同类接触，尤其是涉及敏感或尴尬问题的情况下。
成为专家——我们要把年轻人培养成什么样？
如果专业工作中的工匠手艺已经开始淡出历史舞台，将来由各种专业人士助理、知识工程、经验社区、嵌入式知识、机器生成的经验取而代之，那么有一个重要问题必须得到解答——我们在把这些年轻的生力军培养成什么样？我们担心的是，目前这些精心设计、复杂精细的培训方法和机构都在以20世纪专业人士为模板去培养新人，并没有把技术互联网时代的各种特征，比如在线形式会主导服务领域、日益强大的机器将开始取代人类完成复杂工作等考虑在内。
不仅仅是年轻人所接受的培训可能是不对的，更糟糕的是政策制定机构根本没有意识到这个问题。这些政策制定者大体上都属于老一代，他们通常对根本性的变革持怀疑态度，但又同时负责制定教育政策。
找不到未来的社会角色
我们可以开始尝试性地描述，在后专业时代里人类的角色、应当承担的任务和活动。我们把它们总结为12种未来的“角色”。
手艺人
助手
专业人士助理
同理心提供方
研发人员
知识工程师
流程分析师
网站管理员
设计师
系统提供方
数据科学家
系统工程师
技术对专业工作的影响
我们预计过些时间——专业工作领域的确将发生技术性失业。人类占据优势的那些专业任务类型将会面临增长率不足的问题，因此无法保证多数专业人士能够得到全面就业。我们无法为这三个问题提供确切答案，因此，我们不能预测那时的失业问题的规模。
但是当我们把本书中的研究所得都考虑进来，有三大理由让我们确信失业确实是大势所趋。
理由一，机器变得能干的趋势将持续下去，它们会逐步缩小自己在人类具备优势的那些项目上的差距；理由二，专业人士无法依赖新需求或者潜在需求为他们创造就业，因为机器往往能够更好、更高效地去执行这些新任务；理由三，尽管根据我们的设想，有些任务需要进行道德判断、承担道德责任，而这些任务都必须由人类来完成，但我们并不认为这些任务的数量能够大到维持目前的专业人士就业规模。最能干、最聪明的专业人士才能坚持到最后——他们能够执行那些不能也不应该由机器执行的任务，以及那些我们主动选择留在人类手中的任务。
但所有这些加在一起，都不足以把赚钱轻松的专业人士维持在目前的人数水平上。
我们预测，专业工作在未来几年里将逐渐消失，但所有这些转型都是逐步发生的，并不是一蹴而就的。
与此同时，还有另一件事值得一提。当我们评价一部机器在执行某种任务时具备优势，我们并不仅仅在表扬它具有更高的生产力，它能够利用更少的投入实现更多产出。我们同时也在评价使用机器或人类的相对成本——使用成本有多昂贵。用经济学语言来看问题，我们必须同时考虑量（生产力水平）和价（成本）。今天，许多技术的生产力都特别高，但它们也都十分昂贵，也就是说，启用它们的时机还没到来。
可行性问题
“公共资源”，还有其他潜在问题。实践经验的所有权和控制权不再属于少数几个大机构了（比如说，专业机构、公司、政府），而变成了由所有参与者共享。公共资源这种方式可能会引发公众提出三个关于可行性的担忧。
第一种是最基本的——究竟为什么会有个人和机构心甘情愿放弃他们对于价值连城的实践经验的所有权和控制权，情愿把它们变成公共资源分享给大家呢，按照之前提到过的理由，难道他们不希望保留排他性权利吗，这样不就等于放弃了自己盈利的机会吗？
第二种疑虑是担心一旦变成公共资源，实践经验可能被滥用。生态学者格伦特·哈丁，把这种现象称为“公地悲剧”。我们能预料到一旦实践经验成了公共资源，大量只顾着自己利益的用户就会过度使用。
第三种情况是担心实践经验成为公共资源后，其相关的创造活动就会变得不足。当一个机构拥有、控制实践经验时，其维护成本和更新迭代责任也就清楚地落在了他们身上。这是大交易的辩护理由之一，但是当公共资源的所有权和控制权都更加分散，应当由谁来承担这些成本？直觉上可以认为这些费用应当由所有拥有者共同承担。但这本身就提出了一个问题：当人们发现不参与承担费用也并不会使得他们被剥夺公共资源权利时，毕竟不付钱，也不影响他们使用实践经验并从中受益。但是，越多的人拒绝参与承担费用，实践经验的产出也就越少。人们越是依赖于别人的贡献和付出，整个社区的贡献就变得越少，能够合理涵盖相关成本的概率也就越低。
实践经验和实体商品是完全不同的。实践经验并不会因为被使用而损耗，它反而具有累积效应，经过反复使用价值反而会越来越高。哈丁害怕公共资源会导致过度使用，因而造成“悲剧”，但就实践经验而言，过度使用的情况是无须顾虑的。知识不会因为使用而贬值，反而在不断使用中累积增值。
知识成为公共资源并不会变成一出“公地悲剧”，反而可能成为卡罗尔·罗斯（Carol Rose）所描述的“公地喜剧”。
May 20, 2016
The book begets an important philosophical question: why does one "analyze"?
Let's say events are what they are. If an observer meticulously divides those otherwise holistic occurrences into parts, creates categories, provides tags and logically verbalises the recreation to the same events with the same known consequences, is there any value in the exercise despite the novelty of the process?
Susskind explains something we all experience every day in the new world without knowing the theoretical stratifications. There are numerous discussions on how technology is changing the way professionals work and also some relatively straightforward forecasts of where they are headed, but none of this is likely to be radically new to most people. There are many insights if one ponders over the theoretical framework created but all yielding to more theories and constructs without any changed conclusions or even interpretations of the reality.
In the end, the readers who enjoy theory are likely to enjoy this extremely coherent, structured, well laid-out and detailed work. The book is unlikely to evoke similar responses from anyone looking for new data-points or radical prognosis.
Let's say events are what they are. If an observer meticulously divides those otherwise holistic occurrences into parts, creates categories, provides tags and logically verbalises the recreation to the same events with the same known consequences, is there any value in the exercise despite the novelty of the process?
Susskind explains something we all experience every day in the new world without knowing the theoretical stratifications. There are numerous discussions on how technology is changing the way professionals work and also some relatively straightforward forecasts of where they are headed, but none of this is likely to be radically new to most people. There are many insights if one ponders over the theoretical framework created but all yielding to more theories and constructs without any changed conclusions or even interpretations of the reality.
In the end, the readers who enjoy theory are likely to enjoy this extremely coherent, structured, well laid-out and detailed work. The book is unlikely to evoke similar responses from anyone looking for new data-points or radical prognosis.
January 5, 2018
Richard and Daniel Susskind's The Future of the Professions challenges the view that white collar jobs will be immune from the impact of technological advances into the workplace. Indeed, the authors go so far as to detail the road map 'how technology will transform the work of human experts':
with a consequence that
They argue that reform of the professions is not only inevitable, but that it is long overdue.
The role of the professions - the Grand Bargain
At the heart of Susskind and Susskind's argument is a particular understanding of the relationship between society and the professions. 'The professions are responsible for many of the most important functions and services in society' and their fundamental role ‘is to provide access to knowledge and experience that non specialists lack’ (p.268). Society affords the professions protection and status in return for providing these services fairly in an arrangement which they call 'the grand bargain':
Thus the purpose of the professions is to provide solutions to issues which individuals within society commonly face: ill-health, disputes, lack of education, the need for news and navigating the tax system.
The authors believe that the professions are ripe for reform and should lose their privileged status because they have broken this bargain, in that they do not provide these services that are either 'affordable' or 'accessible':
Automation and Transformation of the Professions
The authors outline how automation is likely to come to the professions by examining some of the practices that have been adopted by those in the vanguard of change:
Education
Online learning - Khan Academy etc.
Flipped Blended Learning
Learning Analytics
Law
Document Assembly Systems (e.g. ContractExpress) which can generate high quality documents after interactive consultations with users.
Online Dispute Resolution (e.g. Modria which is behind eBay and PayPal's resolution service)
Tax and Audit
Online computerised tax preparation software (e.g. TurboTax in the US)
Online Accounting software (e.g. Quickbooks)
Computer-Assisted Audit Techniques (e.g. PwC's system, Aura)
Medicine
'Telemedicine' using video links to make diagnoses or to aid with operations from a distance;
Robots assisting surgeons to conduct delicate operations with greater dexterity than is possible by a human;
the rise of online medical platforms and 'GP intelligent monitoring', 'remote monitoring' by smart devices and apps;
Decomposition, Process Analysts, Para-professionals and Delegation
One of the most important observations that Susskind and Susskind make is that when we are talking about the future of the professions, we need to move on from seeing the machine v human debate in binary terms. They are not talking about a robot replacing a lawyer/teacher/doctor in the way that a robot might replace a human worker on the production line of a car manufacturing plant. However when we 'decompose' or break down what lawyers/teachers/doctors do into tasks, we can see there there is scope for some of these to replaced with automated systems - or indeed by lesser qualified human beings.
Leading on from this, the authors argue that one of the key roles for professional organisations in the future is that of the 'process analyst' whose role is 'to identify the level of person best suited for the range of decomposed tasks (p.124).
The delegation to para-professionals may lead to replacement by automated systems:
Decomposition and Para-professionalism in Schools?
This all begs the question of whether or not teaching can be decomposed and the tasks either delegated to a 'Para-Teacher' or performed by the application of technology.
'In the long run, increasingly capable machines will transform the work of professionals giving rise to new ways of sharing practical expertise in society' (p.303)
with a consequence that
'Decades from now, today's professions will play a much less prominent role in society.' (p.271)
They argue that reform of the professions is not only inevitable, but that it is long overdue.
The role of the professions - the Grand Bargain
At the heart of Susskind and Susskind's argument is a particular understanding of the relationship between society and the professions. 'The professions are responsible for many of the most important functions and services in society' and their fundamental role ‘is to provide access to knowledge and experience that non specialists lack’ (p.268). Society affords the professions protection and status in return for providing these services fairly in an arrangement which they call 'the grand bargain':
'In acknowledgement of and in return for their expertise, experience, and judgement, which they are expected to apply in delivering affordable, accessible, up-to-date, reassuring, and reliable services . . . we (society) place our trust in the professions in granting them exclusivity over a wide range of socially significant services and activities, by paying them a fair wage, by conferring upon them independence, autonomy, rights of self-determination, and by according them respect and status.' (p.23)
Thus the purpose of the professions is to provide solutions to issues which individuals within society commonly face: ill-health, disputes, lack of education, the need for news and navigating the tax system.
The authors believe that the professions are ripe for reform and should lose their privileged status because they have broken this bargain, in that they do not provide these services that are either 'affordable' or 'accessible':
'levels of access and affordability to the practical expertise that the professions provide fall short of acceptable. The combination of these two reasons - the importance of what they provide, and the current inadequacy of the provision - overwhelms the case to protect the craft.' (p.247 - also p.269)
Automation and Transformation of the Professions
The authors outline how automation is likely to come to the professions by examining some of the practices that have been adopted by those in the vanguard of change:
Education
Online learning - Khan Academy etc.
Flipped Blended Learning
Learning Analytics
Law
Document Assembly Systems (e.g. ContractExpress) which can generate high quality documents after interactive consultations with users.
Online Dispute Resolution (e.g. Modria which is behind eBay and PayPal's resolution service)
Tax and Audit
Online computerised tax preparation software (e.g. TurboTax in the US)
Online Accounting software (e.g. Quickbooks)
Computer-Assisted Audit Techniques (e.g. PwC's system, Aura)
Medicine
'Telemedicine' using video links to make diagnoses or to aid with operations from a distance;
Robots assisting surgeons to conduct delicate operations with greater dexterity than is possible by a human;
the rise of online medical platforms and 'GP intelligent monitoring', 'remote monitoring' by smart devices and apps;
Decomposition, Process Analysts, Para-professionals and Delegation
One of the most important observations that Susskind and Susskind make is that when we are talking about the future of the professions, we need to move on from seeing the machine v human debate in binary terms. They are not talking about a robot replacing a lawyer/teacher/doctor in the way that a robot might replace a human worker on the production line of a car manufacturing plant. However when we 'decompose' or break down what lawyers/teachers/doctors do into tasks, we can see there there is scope for some of these to replaced with automated systems - or indeed by lesser qualified human beings.
We argue that professional work should be decomposed, that is broken down into constituent ‘tasks’ – identifiable, distinct, and separate modules of work that make it up. Once decomposed, the challenge then is to identify the most efficient way of executing each type of task, constituent with the quality of work needed, the level of human interaction required, and the ease with which the decomposed tasks can be managed alongside one another and pulled together into a coherent offering. (p.212)
Leading on from this, the authors argue that one of the key roles for professional organisations in the future is that of the 'process analyst' whose role is 'to identify the level of person best suited for the range of decomposed tasks (p.124).
On analysis, it is frequently becoming apparent in various disciplines that para-professional who are sufficiently trained, knowledgeable, and equipped can undertake tasks that were previously taken on by senior professionals. (p.124-5)
The delegation to para-professionals may lead to replacement by automated systems:
The features of tasks in the workplace that make them amenable to delegation and para-professionalization - that they are well bounded and can, in part, be captured in standard processes - are precisely those features that render them strong candidates in due course for the application of technology (both automation and innovation). (p.125)
Decomposition and Para-professionalism in Schools?
This all begs the question of whether or not teaching can be decomposed and the tasks either delegated to a 'Para-Teacher' or performed by the application of technology.
March 30, 2016
As a "professional" who charges for my time by the hour and is involved in my professional association, I was really drawn to the title and premise of this book. But unfortunately I didn't get to the end. As other reviewers have noted, it is too long and repetitive, and the key ideas are not expressed clearly and succinctly. It needed a ruthless editor. A self-help business book for worried professionals may have been a more useful format, rather than the extended PhD thesis academic tome. But I will keep thinking about the ideas in the book, particularly acquisition of knowledge, access to knowledge, and the role of experience and judgement.
June 15, 2016
This is one of the most dense and difficult (in some parts boring) but clarifying book I've ever read. I am not gonna have spoilers here, but if you want to open your mind about the professions in all directions, including in the future, then this book is for you. This book is almost an PhD thesis (if it is not!) and because of that everything is very very well grounded, what make some parts very extensive and prolix. Definitely is need much patient to read some parts of it but then comes moments when you need to read everything because make too much sense and you are not going to want to stop.
March 27, 2016
I think the message this book conveys is important: increasingly capable machines will disrupt the professions leading to "technological unemployment". Authors suggest a future where knowledge and expertise, now exclusive to professionals, can be liberated and maintained by the commons, relying heavily on technology. Though I understand the authors were trying to emphasize their point, at times it is very repetitive. The model of how professions evolve also seemed a bit shallow, but interesting nonetheless.
March 2, 2016
The last chapter title says it all, 'After the Professions'
This is a must read for any professional and covers the impact of exponential and transformative technologies on the future, or lack thereof, of professions. Imagine a world without professions? The authors present some interesting perspectives into some possible futures with well-researched trends and implications. We have been tracking these changes in and on the accounting profession for awhile. From new skills to working with machines, not against them to innovation as a must, this book will make you think.
This is a must read for any professional and covers the impact of exponential and transformative technologies on the future, or lack thereof, of professions. Imagine a world without professions? The authors present some interesting perspectives into some possible futures with well-researched trends and implications. We have been tracking these changes in and on the accounting profession for awhile. From new skills to working with machines, not against them to innovation as a must, this book will make you think.
January 8, 2016
Well researched, but boring... As another reviewer stated - it could have been MUCH shorter. Something more along the line of a Harvard Business Review article would have been better. As it is it turns into a scanning exercise. Scan, see something of interest, pause and read. Begin scanning again. I hate to even admit that but there are long stretches that held no interest to me and even in the ones that did it was still too dry and too long. I was expecting more but the final insights are too few and the 'hook' or 'engagement' of the writing... nonexistent.
March 19, 2016
Society is on the brink of a major change when it comes to the concept of professionalism. Thanks to technology, expert knowledge, now digitized and disseminated online, is far more readily available to the layperson. That doesn’t render professionals obsolete, it just means their roles are changing. Professional expertise will always be important, as today’s mass of knowledge cannot be mastered by a single individual alone; technology is the tool that will help us all get ahead.
April 21, 2021
I'm migrating all my reviews to my blog. If you want to read the full review with my raw notes, check it here: https://pothix.com/futureofprofessions/
It is a nice idea and the arguments look valid and make you think about the future.
The book is not easy to follow through and the first 5 chapters are not so interesting. Most part of the book is an introduction to the main subject that is presented on the last chapters.
It is a nice idea and the arguments look valid and make you think about the future.
The book is not easy to follow through and the first 5 chapters are not so interesting. Most part of the book is an introduction to the main subject that is presented on the last chapters.
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