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China and Taiwan
Relations between Taiwan and the People s Republic of China have oscillated between outright hostility and wary detente ever since the Archipelago seceded from the Communist mainland over six decades ago. While the mainland has long coveted the island, Taiwan has resisted - aided by the United States which continues to play a decisive role in cross-strait relations today.
In this comprehensive analysis, noted China specialist Steven Goldstein shows that although relations between Taiwan and its larger neighbor have softened, underlying tensions remain unresolved. These embers of conflict could burst into flames at any point, engulfing the whole region and potentially dragging the United States into a dangerous confrontation with the PRC
Guiding readers expertly through the historical background to the complexities of this fragile peace, Goldstein discusses the shifting economic, political and security terrain, and examines the pivotal role played by the United States in providing weapons and diplomatic support to Taiwan whilst managing a complex relationship with an increasingly powerful China. Drawing on a wealth of newly declassified material, this compelling and insightful book is an invaluable guide to one of the world s riskiest, long-running conflicts.
In this comprehensive analysis, noted China specialist Steven Goldstein shows that although relations between Taiwan and its larger neighbor have softened, underlying tensions remain unresolved. These embers of conflict could burst into flames at any point, engulfing the whole region and potentially dragging the United States into a dangerous confrontation with the PRC
Guiding readers expertly through the historical background to the complexities of this fragile peace, Goldstein discusses the shifting economic, political and security terrain, and examines the pivotal role played by the United States in providing weapons and diplomatic support to Taiwan whilst managing a complex relationship with an increasingly powerful China. Drawing on a wealth of newly declassified material, this compelling and insightful book is an invaluable guide to one of the world s riskiest, long-running conflicts.
- GenresChina
200 pages, Paperback
First published May 29, 2015
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May 24, 2018
This book attempts to shed light on the very complex triangular relationship between China, Taiwan, and the United States. It had its moments, but for the most part, I didn't like it. This is because the book is presented essentially as a series of factual statements - X happened, then Y happened, then Z happened, making it extremely boring to read. I like history books that don't just tell you what happened but also why - putting you inside the heads of the major players so that you can understand their thought processes and strategies behind their actions. Another criticism I have is that very little background was given on the Chinese civil war, which would make it tough going for somebody who wasn't already familiar with the topic. The book is essentially a series of factual statements without context.
That being said, I did learn a few new things. One issue that is explored is how it is not just China that Taiwan returned to it, there are also politicians in Taiwan who want reunification with the motherland, and how these people (on both sides of the strait) have attempted to ease towards reunification. From what I remember, the basic idea was to achieve "economic integration" first and then focus on the more difficult issue of political integration. Economic integration was fairly successful, and the economies of the two countries are now highly intertwined. However, in attempting to move on to political reunification, they ran against a brick wall. From what I remember, the most they were able to accomplish was a 1992 consensus between the Chinese Communist party and the (then in power) Guomintang, agreeing that "there is but one China, and Taiwan is a part of it", but in which both sides agreed to disagree about what the legitimate government of that one China was. This consensus was then overturned by the Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party when it defeated the Guomintang in the next election.
In fact, politics in Taiwan is a very complex issue. You have both a strong independence movement and a strong anti-independence movement. I ran into the latter by accident one day, and I took some pictures of their signs because I found them hilarious.
Since I can't seem to include pictures in my review, I'll describe them instead. In the first picture, the current leader of Taiwan, 蔡英文, is given a Hitler moustache and also appears to be hanging from a noose. Next two her are the characters 拔菜 - which mean "to pull up vegetables" - a play on words. 蔡英文's last name, 蔡, is a homonym for 菜, which means "vegetables". (Another play on words: 蔡英文's first name, " 英文 ", literally means "English" and since the character 菜 can also mean "poor" or "lacking", 蔡英文's name sounds like "poor English").
The second picture again shows 蔡英文 with the Hitler moustache and hangman's noose along, but this time features the characters 反獨 - meaning "oppose independence".
To be fair, one reasonably legitimate reason for opposing independence is that since normalization between China and the USA began in the 70s, China has consistently refused to rule out the use of force if Taiwan proclaims independence.
Another thing that the book talks about at length is the effect of Taiwan's transition to democracy on the three-way relationship between Taiwan, China, and the United States. Democracy has essentially made an already very tense situation much worse, because with the leadership changing every couple of years, Taiwan's actions become far less predictable and the probability of it doing something that would nudge China into military action goes up.
I'll finish with a few quotes from the final chapter of the book, which I found to be one of the better ones, and which I think sums up the situation nicely.
"The previous discussion has depicted a cross-strait relationship that embodies a number of contradictory and ambiguous threads. Economic relations have thrived between the two sides for more than two decades, yet efforts to institutionalize that relationship or move it into non-economic areas have encountered difficulties. Beijing has continued to reserve the right to use force should unfavourable trends develop, the egregious of which would be a declaration of independence by the government of Taiwan - this, despite the fact that both major parties in Taiwan have already declared that the ROC [Republic of China, a.k.a. Taiwan] already is a sovereign and independent state (albeit one party says the state includes the mainland and the other does not). The United States stands by President Clinton's formula that the issues between Taiwan and the mainland "must be resolved peacefully and with the assent of the Taiwan people," but insists that it "does not support" the island's independence - a possible choice by the people
These contradictions reflect the reality that, while the three major actors appear to accept the current situation in the Taiwan Strait, they all see it as less than ideal - even potentially damaging to their interests. Peace in the Taiwan Strait is a vulnerable structure that persists only because all sides are forced to accept an unacceptable status quo.
But what if this acceptance is challenged? Suppose the leadership in Beijing concludes that any further continuation of the situation of stalemate will result in Taiwan's permanent separation from the mainland and decides to resolve the situation before it comes to that. Or what if some Future government in Taipei actually provokes Beijing by pursuing policies suggesting a lurch toward independence? If armed conflict results from these circumstances, was would the response of the United States be?
This is a conflict that no side seeks, but it is one for which all sides are preparing. Indeed, as we shall see, the nature of these preparations adds considerable volatility to any future crisis situation. Not only are there signs of an arms race, but the strategic planning regarding the use of those weapons indicates that an conflict there will not only escalate quickly but also expand beyond the cross-strait area into East Asia."
"The Strait is a dangerous place where the fundamental interests of the United States, China, and Taiwan are in sharp conflict. It is clear that none of these actors wants the differences that divide them to spark an armed confrontation. Yet, as we have seen in this chapter, all are preparing for the worst.
For China, an armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait would not only likely lead to a costly conflict with the United States but, win or lose, would damage the nation's international reputation, which has been so assiduously cultivated as China's "peaceful rise." For Taiwan, conflict is nothing less than an existential threat. The island and the waters around it would undoubtedly be a principal battlefield. With a defence strategy that is based on the assumption that the adversary will attack first and that the punishing strikes will continue until help comes (if it does), there is little incentive to provoke confrontation. Finally, for the United States, the growth of the Chinese military in the last decade has considerably changed the calculus regarding not only the possibility of a Sino-American conflict that might develop in the area but also the nature of the conflict. As American analysts openly admit, the asymmetric, anti-access strategy and the Chinese capabilities standing behind it will make any confrontation a dangerous and costly affair that could easily spread beyond the Taiwan Strait and bring about the first large-scale conventional war between two nuclear powers in world history.
And so it is obvious that all three actors in the strategic triangle of the Taiwan Strait have reasons to avoid conflict. However, whether because of concern for the party's legitimacy in China, or the strong distrust of the mainland in Taiwan, or the concern of the United States to ensure the maintenance of peace and stability in Asia, none of the actors seems ready to make the concessions necessary to lift the threat of armed conflict that hangs over the strait."
That being said, I did learn a few new things. One issue that is explored is how it is not just China that Taiwan returned to it, there are also politicians in Taiwan who want reunification with the motherland, and how these people (on both sides of the strait) have attempted to ease towards reunification. From what I remember, the basic idea was to achieve "economic integration" first and then focus on the more difficult issue of political integration. Economic integration was fairly successful, and the economies of the two countries are now highly intertwined. However, in attempting to move on to political reunification, they ran against a brick wall. From what I remember, the most they were able to accomplish was a 1992 consensus between the Chinese Communist party and the (then in power) Guomintang, agreeing that "there is but one China, and Taiwan is a part of it", but in which both sides agreed to disagree about what the legitimate government of that one China was. This consensus was then overturned by the Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party when it defeated the Guomintang in the next election.
In fact, politics in Taiwan is a very complex issue. You have both a strong independence movement and a strong anti-independence movement. I ran into the latter by accident one day, and I took some pictures of their signs because I found them hilarious.
Since I can't seem to include pictures in my review, I'll describe them instead. In the first picture, the current leader of Taiwan, 蔡英文, is given a Hitler moustache and also appears to be hanging from a noose. Next two her are the characters 拔菜 - which mean "to pull up vegetables" - a play on words. 蔡英文's last name, 蔡, is a homonym for 菜, which means "vegetables". (Another play on words: 蔡英文's first name, " 英文 ", literally means "English" and since the character 菜 can also mean "poor" or "lacking", 蔡英文's name sounds like "poor English").
The second picture again shows 蔡英文 with the Hitler moustache and hangman's noose along, but this time features the characters 反獨 - meaning "oppose independence".
To be fair, one reasonably legitimate reason for opposing independence is that since normalization between China and the USA began in the 70s, China has consistently refused to rule out the use of force if Taiwan proclaims independence.
Another thing that the book talks about at length is the effect of Taiwan's transition to democracy on the three-way relationship between Taiwan, China, and the United States. Democracy has essentially made an already very tense situation much worse, because with the leadership changing every couple of years, Taiwan's actions become far less predictable and the probability of it doing something that would nudge China into military action goes up.
I'll finish with a few quotes from the final chapter of the book, which I found to be one of the better ones, and which I think sums up the situation nicely.
"The previous discussion has depicted a cross-strait relationship that embodies a number of contradictory and ambiguous threads. Economic relations have thrived between the two sides for more than two decades, yet efforts to institutionalize that relationship or move it into non-economic areas have encountered difficulties. Beijing has continued to reserve the right to use force should unfavourable trends develop, the egregious of which would be a declaration of independence by the government of Taiwan - this, despite the fact that both major parties in Taiwan have already declared that the ROC [Republic of China, a.k.a. Taiwan] already is a sovereign and independent state (albeit one party says the state includes the mainland and the other does not). The United States stands by President Clinton's formula that the issues between Taiwan and the mainland "must be resolved peacefully and with the assent of the Taiwan people," but insists that it "does not support" the island's independence - a possible choice by the people
These contradictions reflect the reality that, while the three major actors appear to accept the current situation in the Taiwan Strait, they all see it as less than ideal - even potentially damaging to their interests. Peace in the Taiwan Strait is a vulnerable structure that persists only because all sides are forced to accept an unacceptable status quo.
But what if this acceptance is challenged? Suppose the leadership in Beijing concludes that any further continuation of the situation of stalemate will result in Taiwan's permanent separation from the mainland and decides to resolve the situation before it comes to that. Or what if some Future government in Taipei actually provokes Beijing by pursuing policies suggesting a lurch toward independence? If armed conflict results from these circumstances, was would the response of the United States be?
This is a conflict that no side seeks, but it is one for which all sides are preparing. Indeed, as we shall see, the nature of these preparations adds considerable volatility to any future crisis situation. Not only are there signs of an arms race, but the strategic planning regarding the use of those weapons indicates that an conflict there will not only escalate quickly but also expand beyond the cross-strait area into East Asia."
"The Strait is a dangerous place where the fundamental interests of the United States, China, and Taiwan are in sharp conflict. It is clear that none of these actors wants the differences that divide them to spark an armed confrontation. Yet, as we have seen in this chapter, all are preparing for the worst.
For China, an armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait would not only likely lead to a costly conflict with the United States but, win or lose, would damage the nation's international reputation, which has been so assiduously cultivated as China's "peaceful rise." For Taiwan, conflict is nothing less than an existential threat. The island and the waters around it would undoubtedly be a principal battlefield. With a defence strategy that is based on the assumption that the adversary will attack first and that the punishing strikes will continue until help comes (if it does), there is little incentive to provoke confrontation. Finally, for the United States, the growth of the Chinese military in the last decade has considerably changed the calculus regarding not only the possibility of a Sino-American conflict that might develop in the area but also the nature of the conflict. As American analysts openly admit, the asymmetric, anti-access strategy and the Chinese capabilities standing behind it will make any confrontation a dangerous and costly affair that could easily spread beyond the Taiwan Strait and bring about the first large-scale conventional war between two nuclear powers in world history.
And so it is obvious that all three actors in the strategic triangle of the Taiwan Strait have reasons to avoid conflict. However, whether because of concern for the party's legitimacy in China, or the strong distrust of the mainland in Taiwan, or the concern of the United States to ensure the maintenance of peace and stability in Asia, none of the actors seems ready to make the concessions necessary to lift the threat of armed conflict that hangs over the strait."
January 29, 2017
A very useful summary of how we got to where we are with One China - the policy no one wants but for which there is no obvious alternative. God only knows what it portends in a Trumpian universe, but at least I have a frame.
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