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What to Expect When No One's Expecting: America's Coming Demographic Disaster
Look around you and think for a Is America too crowded?
For years, we have been warned about the looming danger of people jostling for space on a planet that’s busting at the seams and running out of oil and food and land and everything else.
It’s all bunk. The “population bomb” never exploded. Instead, statistics from around the world make clear that since the 1970s, we’ve been facing exactly the opposite people are having too few babies. Population growth has been slowing for two generations. The world’s population will peak, and then begin shrinking, within the next fifty years. In some countries, it’s already started. Japan, for instance, will be half its current size by the end of the century. In Italy, there are already more deaths than births every year. China’s One-Child Policy has left that country without enough women to marry its men, not enough young people to support the country’s elderly, and an impending population contraction that has the ruling class terrified.
And all of this is coming to America, too. In fact, it’s already here. Middle-class Americans have their own, informal one-child policy these days. And an alarming number of upscale professionals don’t even go that far—they have dogs, not kids. In fact, if it weren’t for the wave of immigration we experienced over the last thirty years, the United States would be on the verge of shrinking, too.
What happened? Everything about modern life—from Bugaboo strollers to insane college tuition to government regulations—has pushed Americans in a single direction, making it harder to have children. And making the people who do still want to have children feel like second-class citizens.
What to Expect When No One’s Expecting explains why the population implosion happened and how it is remaking culture, the economy, and politics both at home and around the world.
Because if America wants to continue to lead the world, we need to have more babies.
For years, we have been warned about the looming danger of people jostling for space on a planet that’s busting at the seams and running out of oil and food and land and everything else.
It’s all bunk. The “population bomb” never exploded. Instead, statistics from around the world make clear that since the 1970s, we’ve been facing exactly the opposite people are having too few babies. Population growth has been slowing for two generations. The world’s population will peak, and then begin shrinking, within the next fifty years. In some countries, it’s already started. Japan, for instance, will be half its current size by the end of the century. In Italy, there are already more deaths than births every year. China’s One-Child Policy has left that country without enough women to marry its men, not enough young people to support the country’s elderly, and an impending population contraction that has the ruling class terrified.
And all of this is coming to America, too. In fact, it’s already here. Middle-class Americans have their own, informal one-child policy these days. And an alarming number of upscale professionals don’t even go that far—they have dogs, not kids. In fact, if it weren’t for the wave of immigration we experienced over the last thirty years, the United States would be on the verge of shrinking, too.
What happened? Everything about modern life—from Bugaboo strollers to insane college tuition to government regulations—has pushed Americans in a single direction, making it harder to have children. And making the people who do still want to have children feel like second-class citizens.
What to Expect When No One’s Expecting explains why the population implosion happened and how it is remaking culture, the economy, and politics both at home and around the world.
Because if America wants to continue to lead the world, we need to have more babies.
242 pages, Kindle Edition
First published February 5, 2013
44 people are currently reading
1224 people want to read
About the author
Jonathan V. Last
8 books46 followersJonathan V. Last is a senior writer at The Weekly Standard in Washington. His writings have been featured in The Wall Street Journal, The Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, The Philadelphia Inquirer, The New York Post, The Claremont Review of Books, First Things, The Week, Salon, Slate, TV Guide, and elsewhere.
He lives in Virginia with his wife and two children.
He lives in Virginia with his wife and two children.
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 166 reviews
July 1, 2013
According to the subtitle this book is about America's coming demographic disaster. According to Last, the fact that people are now having fewer babies than they used to will be terrible for America, and, indeed, the rest of the world.
As I went through this book I got a growing feeling that Last and I would not be friends if we met. He seems rather more right-wing than I am, I suspect he is not a dog person, he is rather obsessed with racial differences, he flat-out disagrees with abortion and towards the end of the book he uses the phrase “typical European silliness.” On the other hand, he does point out that immigrants have been upholding the birth rate for the past couple of generations, so at least someone in the US likes us.
The book begins with some facts and figures about America's falling birth rate. He convinces me completely of a trend towards falling birth rates in America and lots of other countries. The book has lots of interesting facts, some related to this subject, some not so much. He suggests the laws requiring children to be in a safe car seat are anti-family. He says anti-family, I say progress, tomay-do, tomato.
Actually, that is where I disagree with him on so much. The lower fertility rate is either part of, or a consequence of, progress. Women are having fewer babies later in life because we finally have the chance to get an education and use it to do jobs that better the world in various ways, other than just producing more people (which is obviously also an important job). He is not happy that we are marrying later in life and therefore having children later in life (which leads to there being less eggs available therefore less babies) what with all this university and career and having a life of our own and so on maybe some of us do not meet the love of our life until later on, so that can't be helped.
I think Last might be a Christian. He quotes the statistic that couples who go to church more often a) get married earlier b) stay married and c) have more babies. I get the impression that he sees causation here, rather than correlation. Personally I see no value in staying in a relationship that makes me unhappy, and no amount of church-going could have helped me to stay with some of my exes. I also disagree with his suggestion that outlawing abortion would help avert this “demographic disaster,” when has forcing a woman to have a child that she did not want ever helped anyone?
He discusses the difference in fertility rate by the mother's race and level of education level. As a general rule, the fairer your skin and the more highly educated you are, the less offspring you will produce. This is partly the fault of the Pill (three cheers for the Pill). Though he tells us several times that he is not pushing his politics on us, it certainly feels that way sometimes.
Here is my main issue with this book; I think it's short-sighted. I see that in the short-term both Last and I will suffer due to this lower birth rate. There will be less able-bodied young folk out there in the work force to pay for my pension when I am old and retired. But he fails to convince me that in the long-term we need an ever-growing number of people on the planet. He dismisses the environmental issues of overcrowding, and I consider that a very real issue. He also does not mention quite what we need all these people for. Along with this trend of more women in the work force we have seen huge technological developments that have put many humans out of a job, this can only increase as we go forward. More women in the workforce, many social and technological improvements - correlation or causation? Well, maybe we deserve more than a couple of generations of giving it a try to find out.
click here to read the rest of my reviews
As I went through this book I got a growing feeling that Last and I would not be friends if we met. He seems rather more right-wing than I am, I suspect he is not a dog person, he is rather obsessed with racial differences, he flat-out disagrees with abortion and towards the end of the book he uses the phrase “typical European silliness.” On the other hand, he does point out that immigrants have been upholding the birth rate for the past couple of generations, so at least someone in the US likes us.
The book begins with some facts and figures about America's falling birth rate. He convinces me completely of a trend towards falling birth rates in America and lots of other countries. The book has lots of interesting facts, some related to this subject, some not so much. He suggests the laws requiring children to be in a safe car seat are anti-family. He says anti-family, I say progress, tomay-do, tomato.
Actually, that is where I disagree with him on so much. The lower fertility rate is either part of, or a consequence of, progress. Women are having fewer babies later in life because we finally have the chance to get an education and use it to do jobs that better the world in various ways, other than just producing more people (which is obviously also an important job). He is not happy that we are marrying later in life and therefore having children later in life (which leads to there being less eggs available therefore less babies) what with all this university and career and having a life of our own and so on maybe some of us do not meet the love of our life until later on, so that can't be helped.
I think Last might be a Christian. He quotes the statistic that couples who go to church more often a) get married earlier b) stay married and c) have more babies. I get the impression that he sees causation here, rather than correlation. Personally I see no value in staying in a relationship that makes me unhappy, and no amount of church-going could have helped me to stay with some of my exes. I also disagree with his suggestion that outlawing abortion would help avert this “demographic disaster,” when has forcing a woman to have a child that she did not want ever helped anyone?
He discusses the difference in fertility rate by the mother's race and level of education level. As a general rule, the fairer your skin and the more highly educated you are, the less offspring you will produce. This is partly the fault of the Pill (three cheers for the Pill). Though he tells us several times that he is not pushing his politics on us, it certainly feels that way sometimes.
Here is my main issue with this book; I think it's short-sighted. I see that in the short-term both Last and I will suffer due to this lower birth rate. There will be less able-bodied young folk out there in the work force to pay for my pension when I am old and retired. But he fails to convince me that in the long-term we need an ever-growing number of people on the planet. He dismisses the environmental issues of overcrowding, and I consider that a very real issue. He also does not mention quite what we need all these people for. Along with this trend of more women in the work force we have seen huge technological developments that have put many humans out of a job, this can only increase as we go forward. More women in the workforce, many social and technological improvements - correlation or causation? Well, maybe we deserve more than a couple of generations of giving it a try to find out.
click here to read the rest of my reviews
April 10, 2013
I just finished this book, and settled on three stars for two primary reasons; first, I felt that Mr. Last's casual and humorous writing style, while entertaining, detracts from the seriousness of his subject matter. Second, while the book seemed well-researched, with the requisite citations to support his premise (that populations in several industrialized countries have been decreasing overall for more than a century, and because we're less serious and our goals have shifted from having children, will probably continue to do so), I was left with some conflicting thoughts: countries that espouse nationalism (xenophobia) do so at their own peril, but that several European leaders have acknowledged the societal failure of multiculturalism, and "America should keep that in mind while simultaneously welcoming future tides of immigrants..."(p. 169). He does acknowledge that the birth rate of immigrants often exceeds that of natural-born citizens. So what's wrong with immigration? Aren't the majority of us immigrants, or descendants of immigrants? He cuts to the chase in the last chapter "How to Make Babies" and offers his solutions to the problem of decreasing birth rates (with the disclaimer that they aren't meant to be definitive solutions): reform social security, re-examine the need for college education, utilize telecommuting, temper immigration with integration to preserve nationalism (how?), more state (national) support of religion (such as in the Republic of Georgia), but what religion, and where do you draw the line, and what about separation of church and state? He presents an interesting argument; the book is definitely thought-provoking, but there are no real or easy solutions, and I felt that he fell back on worn conservative talking-points in the end.
April 16, 2013
This will definitely be on the Best Books of 2013 list. I can't believe how America is still in the dark ages, as far as understanding what's really going on. Let me just say this once: There's no such thing as a "population explosion". If anything, we're teetering on the very of a world-wide collapse because there aren't enough babies being born.
In other places besides the US, they are well aware of this. In German state of North Rhine-Westphalia, the government is actually re-training prostitutes to care for their elderly. Russia is basically committing national suicide - consider this: in addition to all the other factors affecting their population, they have 30% more abortions than births. This is...horrifying. Holocaust-level horrifying. Japan is doing so badly, population-wise, that the government is invoking increasingly more and more desperate measures to try to convince their citizens to reproduce before it's too late. Even India is barely producing above replacement levels. (This I looked up myself, as it isn't in the book.) And that level is dropping rapidly, not rising.
It's a good thing I already know that humanity is not going to go extinct, or I'd be seriously worried after reading this book. Crazy, how we're spoon-fed "information" (like population explosion) that is the exact opposite of the truth, and people just swallow it down. Maybe this book will open a few eyes.
Also appreciate that in the end, he gives some solid answers on how to improve matters. I particularly loved the section on colleges - so great!
In other places besides the US, they are well aware of this. In German state of North Rhine-Westphalia, the government is actually re-training prostitutes to care for their elderly. Russia is basically committing national suicide - consider this: in addition to all the other factors affecting their population, they have 30% more abortions than births. This is...horrifying. Holocaust-level horrifying. Japan is doing so badly, population-wise, that the government is invoking increasingly more and more desperate measures to try to convince their citizens to reproduce before it's too late. Even India is barely producing above replacement levels. (This I looked up myself, as it isn't in the book.) And that level is dropping rapidly, not rising.
It's a good thing I already know that humanity is not going to go extinct, or I'd be seriously worried after reading this book. Crazy, how we're spoon-fed "information" (like population explosion) that is the exact opposite of the truth, and people just swallow it down. Maybe this book will open a few eyes.
Also appreciate that in the end, he gives some solid answers on how to improve matters. I particularly loved the section on colleges - so great!
May 28, 2023
Discusses trends and statistics in abortion, cohabitation, the birth control pill, marriage, divorce, birth rates, and women in the work force.
As a journalist, Last has a knack for engaging sentences and a smart sense of humor.
I wish he would have spent more time, even a full chapter, explaining why a dropping birth rate is bad for a country. He skips around it a bit, briefly describing a city in Germany which was half empty (from what I remember). But I wanted fleshed-out details: what are the long-term affects on housing, crime, GDP, new products and services in the economy, the job market, imports and exports, politics, religion, everything. He says it's bad, but I wanted a picture of how and why it's bad. More extrapolation.
As a journalist, Last has a knack for engaging sentences and a smart sense of humor.
I wish he would have spent more time, even a full chapter, explaining why a dropping birth rate is bad for a country. He skips around it a bit, briefly describing a city in Germany which was half empty (from what I remember). But I wanted fleshed-out details: what are the long-term affects on housing, crime, GDP, new products and services in the economy, the job market, imports and exports, politics, religion, everything. He says it's bad, but I wanted a picture of how and why it's bad. More extrapolation.
March 20, 2013
I give it three stars based on the breezy and easy reading/ writing style. For logic and reasoning I'd give it half a star. Mr. Last is a writer for the Weekly Standard. For some reason, Conservatives have glommed onto the coming dearth of births in the first world as a crisis. Their primary concern, as one might expect, is economic and border line racist. At times Mr. Last's personal prejudices come through both explicitly and through politically charged word choice. If one were to completely ignore resource depletion, pollution, overcrowding and a whole host of other problems associated with overpopulation, Mr. Last's arguments might make sense. Conveniently, Mr. Last does exactly that. There is some passing mention of global warming and its "controversial" conclusions. He mentions Paul Ehrlich's "Population Bomb" and The Club of Rome's "Limits to Growth" only to poo-poo their overpopulation prescriptions without any discussion of the issues either book actually addresses (other than a winking aside that "Limits to Growth" supposedly claimed an exhaustion of the world's oil supply by 1992). As if it would be perfectly hunky-dory for the world population to reach 10-12 billion, he breezily continues that its decline after that point is what we really have to worry about. And what are the dire consequences of this declining birth rate crisis Mr. Last is warning us of; some nebulous claim, without any real evidence or even reasoning, that our Civilization will decline if our population doesn't continue to grow, and that Granny and Gramps won't get their Social Security and Medicare checks. His only evidence of the imminent decline of our Civilization is some Conservative echo chamber regurgitation that some other Conservative's book claims that Sparta disappeared because of falling birth rates. He might as well be claiming his Uncle Bill told him so. He makes another flimsy assertion that declining population will harm the economy through lack of entrepreneurship due to the declining and aging population. This is just laughable. I guess what he is saying is that old people just get dumber and dumber and that there is some kind of youth population percentage critical mass that has to be maintained for entrepreneurship to occur. Somehow in 1960, when the world only had 3 billion people and most of today's technologies had their genesis, we were just crying for creativity. Such rubbish. As for the old folks government checks, you wouldn't think a good arch-conservative like Mr. Last would have any worries on that account. After all, he undoubtedly regularly votes for people who would like to privatize/abolish both programs. Undoubtably, both of these programs will need to be modified over the coming decades, but the claim that this is some sort of crisis is overblown and largely unsubstantiated by Mr. Last. Bottom line, I think Mr. Last and his Conservative cohorts have two real worries about the coming demographic crisis. They are worried the brown people are outbreeding them. And, more importantly, those brown people don't seem to want to vote for Conservatives.
March 8, 2013
Last starts the book by pointing out how wrong Paul Ehrlich was in his book "The Population Bomb," which warned readers of a coming population explosion. However, I feel that Last is doing the same type of fear-mongering that Ehrlich did. I have not read Ehrlich's book, but I imagine he had the same numbers and trends to back him up as Last does in this book.
I felt the book was somewhat interesting. It's short, and It's filled with sobering statistics, trends, and anecdotes framing out coming demographic demise. I was turned off by the right-wing slant of the book (demonizing Margaret Sanger and quoting Irving Kristol). Lasts wants us to go back to the good old days of yore, meaning more church, less safety net, and less equality for women. If I were a woman, I'd be deeply offended by this book, as Last seems to be blaming them in multiple fronts for the sinking fertility rate: Legalization of birth control and abortion, women's increased role in the workforce, women's increased education, women cohabiting with partners, and therefore women having children at the tail end of their fertile years or not at all. Also, according to Last, Social Security is not only doomed to go bankrupt due to demographics, it's also the reason we don't have children (we no longer need children to take care of us in old age...). Last seems to long for a bygone time that will, thankfully, not return. The good old days were not good for everyone, and I don't think Last realizes that.
Anyway, you now know my biases. As I said, it was somewhat interesting, and a very short read (~175 pages). I skimmed over the last 10 pages because I sort of lost interest. I wouldn't really recommend it, but it seems to be popular. I don't regret reading it, but I think I need a good piece of fiction to make up for it.
I felt the book was somewhat interesting. It's short, and It's filled with sobering statistics, trends, and anecdotes framing out coming demographic demise. I was turned off by the right-wing slant of the book (demonizing Margaret Sanger and quoting Irving Kristol). Lasts wants us to go back to the good old days of yore, meaning more church, less safety net, and less equality for women. If I were a woman, I'd be deeply offended by this book, as Last seems to be blaming them in multiple fronts for the sinking fertility rate: Legalization of birth control and abortion, women's increased role in the workforce, women's increased education, women cohabiting with partners, and therefore women having children at the tail end of their fertile years or not at all. Also, according to Last, Social Security is not only doomed to go bankrupt due to demographics, it's also the reason we don't have children (we no longer need children to take care of us in old age...). Last seems to long for a bygone time that will, thankfully, not return. The good old days were not good for everyone, and I don't think Last realizes that.
Anyway, you now know my biases. As I said, it was somewhat interesting, and a very short read (~175 pages). I skimmed over the last 10 pages because I sort of lost interest. I wouldn't really recommend it, but it seems to be popular. I don't regret reading it, but I think I need a good piece of fiction to make up for it.
November 25, 2021
From the title, you would assume this book was about the various impacts that will occur after the demographic disaster unfolds. It's for that reason that one of my GR friends saw this book and recommended it to me after one of my Great De-evolution books came out. I was excited to read about the various impacts as fewer people filled the country and planet, which is what my apocalyptic books discuss. Instead, this is almost entirely about WHY people are deciding to have fewer babies. (Strike 1)
The author is also quick to laugh off the notion that there are too many people in the world but never faces the problem of when there will be too many people, since he is adamant that there always have to be more people in subsequent generations for the ponzi scheme to continue. Ignoring this key point is a pretty big deal considering the premise of his book. (Strike 2)
He also has a habit of throwing in a string of facts that are backed up by statistics and then throwing in a random assertion that isn't backed up by anything and often times does nothing but repeat establishment politic talking points. (Strike 3)
Highly recommended if you want to know why people are having fewer babies. Not recommended at all if you want to read about the potential impacts of said decline.
The author is also quick to laugh off the notion that there are too many people in the world but never faces the problem of when there will be too many people, since he is adamant that there always have to be more people in subsequent generations for the ponzi scheme to continue. Ignoring this key point is a pretty big deal considering the premise of his book. (Strike 2)
He also has a habit of throwing in a string of facts that are backed up by statistics and then throwing in a random assertion that isn't backed up by anything and often times does nothing but repeat establishment politic talking points. (Strike 3)
Highly recommended if you want to know why people are having fewer babies. Not recommended at all if you want to read about the potential impacts of said decline.
April 6, 2013
Interesting book-length treatment explaining how European and North American birthrates have fallen, and why, from a conservative writer who thinks that this is a real problem. I disagreed with the author all over the place, but still thought the book was worth reading.
I enjoyed his treatment of the Second Great Transition phenomenon (i.e. the widespread phenomenon of my generation deciding to have fewer or no children). I predictably disagree with much of his interpretation of the trends in cohabitation, birth control use, marriage/divorce and religiosity/secularism because I think it is riddled with false implicit assumptions, but he gives a pretty decent answer for why birthrates have fallen in some places. The book also includes a good description of the societal implications of aging populations with fewer and fewer young people to replace them (i.e. tax base, social security, retirement, medical care). Japan, Germany, Italy and Greece do provide good case studies of the problems that must be sorted out in populations that are shrinking very quickly.
However, the population growth curve is still almost vertical worldwide, and the shrinking population phenomenon is restricted to very specific places. His argument leaves out Africa, South America, and non-Chinese Asia (i.e. the majority of the world's population). He dismisses Ehrlich too breezily (there are currently a billion people living in poverty that don't get enough to eat). It would require the natural resources of multiple earths for the rest of the world's existing peoples (not the 10 or 15 billion we'll have in another 50-100 years) to live like middle-class Americans.
We are in a difficult position where we cannot sustain the current population, let alone twice as many, yet societies and economies are better able to grow than shrink. In the end, I believe that massive population growth is the greater of the two evils. Data like this ought to make people think: http://www.worldometers.info/world-po....
I enjoyed his treatment of the Second Great Transition phenomenon (i.e. the widespread phenomenon of my generation deciding to have fewer or no children). I predictably disagree with much of his interpretation of the trends in cohabitation, birth control use, marriage/divorce and religiosity/secularism because I think it is riddled with false implicit assumptions, but he gives a pretty decent answer for why birthrates have fallen in some places. The book also includes a good description of the societal implications of aging populations with fewer and fewer young people to replace them (i.e. tax base, social security, retirement, medical care). Japan, Germany, Italy and Greece do provide good case studies of the problems that must be sorted out in populations that are shrinking very quickly.
However, the population growth curve is still almost vertical worldwide, and the shrinking population phenomenon is restricted to very specific places. His argument leaves out Africa, South America, and non-Chinese Asia (i.e. the majority of the world's population). He dismisses Ehrlich too breezily (there are currently a billion people living in poverty that don't get enough to eat). It would require the natural resources of multiple earths for the rest of the world's existing peoples (not the 10 or 15 billion we'll have in another 50-100 years) to live like middle-class Americans.
We are in a difficult position where we cannot sustain the current population, let alone twice as many, yet societies and economies are better able to grow than shrink. In the end, I believe that massive population growth is the greater of the two evils. Data like this ought to make people think: http://www.worldometers.info/world-po....
July 22, 2014
I ended up reading every word of a book I only intended to skim because it was surprisingly witty for a book about demography and statistics. Jonathan Last provides compelling data and makes the convincing claim that population decline is quite difficult to recover from and is more fearsome than we may have thought. Of course, I'm an easy audience for this one as I look forward to my third child being born--I'm doing my part! I also come from Last's end of the political spectrum so I wasn't overly critical of his assumptions. I liked that he wasn't overly alarmist or looking for easy blame. He doesn't try to oversimplify the problem but looks at the many different potential contributors to the problem and shows how all these little effects accumulate. My favorite section was the one that explained how we've become so politically polarized and how that relates to reproductive rates. Interesting, data-packed but accessible, witty but thorough, well researched with helpful conjectures--overall, I enjoyed it more than I expected to!
March 30, 2013
This is the most interesting, entertaining, and darkly humorous book you will ever read about demographic fertility trends and the decline of humanity. Last's inquisitive nature and anticipation of criticisms blends to give you a response to that nagging question you have at each turn. And what's wonderful is that he doesn't put some ridiculous gloss on the childrearing process in modern America - this is not a Hallmark card - but points out that it's exactly how unbearable and expensive childrearing has become, thanks to public policies you may not even know exist, which leads to further declines and delays in having kids in the first place. This was an eye opening read but also an enjoyable one, and even though it is not really about politics but culture, it may be the most important political book of 2013, charting the ways our nation is changing and will continue to change in the future.
March 14, 2013
This book is really interesting. I grew up fearing overpopulation, but this book examines the coming challenges associated with the worldwide FALL in birthrates.
I thought I might run into moralizing, or anti-feminism, but I found the book refreshingly free of that. Last doesn't claim to have all the answers, but he lays out the problem clearly, and even entertainingly. While he does turn some long-standing dogma on its head, it is not an ideological book.
I thought I might run into moralizing, or anti-feminism, but I found the book refreshingly free of that. Last doesn't claim to have all the answers, but he lays out the problem clearly, and even entertainingly. While he does turn some long-standing dogma on its head, it is not an ideological book.
September 14, 2013
A recent Time Magazine article is what lead me to pick up this book which turned out to be a quick and easy read.
The author did his homework. There's plenty of data and doomsday demographics but taken with a spoonful of sugar to end on a note of hope. Utah natives will be happy to find two or three references to our culture's high fertility rates, the capitol city's shift to a democratic vote, and that BYU is the only American college campus that offers married student housing to encourage proper family formation. Married student housing, a return to religion, restructuring our higher education, and creating more jobs so parents can work from home were the only good ideas the author could think of to reverse this trend of a world gone solo thanks to the revolutionary idea of self actualization from the 60's when the needs of one individual became greater than someone else's like a spouse or offspring.
As a woman I got tired of the author's constant bombardment that the nation's demographic disaster was all my fault. If the feminist movement had never happened and 21st century women weren't dominating the workforce, getting all the bachelor's degrees and living the carefree bachelorette life (in Japan these women have been termed "The Parasite Single" while single young Japanese men are never acknowledged) then women would have more incentive to stay home and procreate. The title is misleading as the author spends several chapters bemoaning the state of first world countries like Japan, Italy, and Russia, where women simply stopped having kids, got on the pill and terminated all unwanted pregnancies. What about the single young men in these countries? What are they doing? The author never shares. Apparently, the only men concerned with this crisis are the government leaders offering incentives that never take off and America needs to pay attention. According to Mr. Last, the whole world is turning into Detroit.
I read this book with the hope that my own suspicions of why I'm no one and not expecting would be validated. I don't take the pill and I've never had an abortion but I agree with the author that good intentions can sometimes go horribly wrong. Alas, the author failed to acknowledge another good intention about to go horribly wrong: the rise of gay marriage. For if two men or two women choose to live together, no babies are being made. And what about the downward trend of youth choosing not to date? For if there's no dating that leads to marriage, again, no babies are being made.
It takes two to tango. I would've liked more data on the sociological behavior of today's 21st century male-his education statistics and lifestyle behaviors over the last, say, fifty years. There's an eerie correlation on the last page of the book, a 1905 quote from Teddy Roosevelt taking able-bodied men to task who choose selfishness over their responsibilities to country and family. Maybe patriarchy wasn't such a bad social organization after all!
The author did his homework. There's plenty of data and doomsday demographics but taken with a spoonful of sugar to end on a note of hope. Utah natives will be happy to find two or three references to our culture's high fertility rates, the capitol city's shift to a democratic vote, and that BYU is the only American college campus that offers married student housing to encourage proper family formation. Married student housing, a return to religion, restructuring our higher education, and creating more jobs so parents can work from home were the only good ideas the author could think of to reverse this trend of a world gone solo thanks to the revolutionary idea of self actualization from the 60's when the needs of one individual became greater than someone else's like a spouse or offspring.
As a woman I got tired of the author's constant bombardment that the nation's demographic disaster was all my fault. If the feminist movement had never happened and 21st century women weren't dominating the workforce, getting all the bachelor's degrees and living the carefree bachelorette life (in Japan these women have been termed "The Parasite Single" while single young Japanese men are never acknowledged) then women would have more incentive to stay home and procreate. The title is misleading as the author spends several chapters bemoaning the state of first world countries like Japan, Italy, and Russia, where women simply stopped having kids, got on the pill and terminated all unwanted pregnancies. What about the single young men in these countries? What are they doing? The author never shares. Apparently, the only men concerned with this crisis are the government leaders offering incentives that never take off and America needs to pay attention. According to Mr. Last, the whole world is turning into Detroit.
I read this book with the hope that my own suspicions of why I'm no one and not expecting would be validated. I don't take the pill and I've never had an abortion but I agree with the author that good intentions can sometimes go horribly wrong. Alas, the author failed to acknowledge another good intention about to go horribly wrong: the rise of gay marriage. For if two men or two women choose to live together, no babies are being made. And what about the downward trend of youth choosing not to date? For if there's no dating that leads to marriage, again, no babies are being made.
It takes two to tango. I would've liked more data on the sociological behavior of today's 21st century male-his education statistics and lifestyle behaviors over the last, say, fifty years. There's an eerie correlation on the last page of the book, a 1905 quote from Teddy Roosevelt taking able-bodied men to task who choose selfishness over their responsibilities to country and family. Maybe patriarchy wasn't such a bad social organization after all!
March 6, 2013
If you haven't read much about demographics and the importance of the total fertility rate of a society, this book is an eye opener. Last examines some of the societal and cultural influences that shape a country's fertility. The increasing secularization of western society has lead inexorably to a declining desire to have children and large families. Once a country's fertility drops below replacement rate, it is difficult if not impossible to reverse the trend. He examines how many countries have recognized the risk of declining population and attempted to "incentivize" having children. The vast majority of these efforts have been in vain. In a culture where maximizing pleasure is highly valued, children will never be a high priority. A quote from the book summarizes the problem faced by countries with declining populations and poor demographic outlook, "in a world where pleasure is the highest value, children will never be attractive. But pleasure is a shallow goal and the well-examined life requires more. It demands seriousness of purpose. Nothing is more serious than having children." A culture that seeks pleasure above all is part of the problem. Other problems that he examines include the distorting effects of government policies, particularly Social Security. Social security has distorted the "market value" of children and actually drives fertility rates down. Social security "crowds out" incentives to raise children. The existing system gives everyone welfare state payouts in old age, regardless of whether they bore the cost of creating the taxpayers who fund the payouts. He suggests a "Parental Dividend" system by which a couple's FICA taxes would be reduced by one-third with the birth of their first child, by two-thirds with the birth of the second, and then eliminated completely with the third (until the children turn 18). Last does an admirable job of keeping the book readable and engaging despite the necessary reliance on copious facts, figures and tables. He makes a pledge in the beginning of the book not to be a "doom sayer" but he doesn't quite achieve that goal in the end.
May 13, 2013
As a Reformed Presbyterian Christian who attends a church with more children (younger than 12 years old) than adults, this book gave me both joy and concern. It gives me joy to know that my fellow believers, with whom I'm covenanted in Christ, have not bought into the Left's assault on the virtue of raising large families. At the same time, I wonder if a new Pharaoh is forming, if God's people will be forced into a new state of servility as God's people were in Egypt prior to the Exodus. It's becoming increasingly clear that the fertile will inherit the earth, but the infertile-by-choice are ensuring the fertile's enslavement to sustaining the welfare system. The fertile will work for the system that the infertile have created and expanded.
I admit that this is likely an exaggeration, but there are some similarities between the infertile and Pharaoh and between the fertile and the Hebrews. Like Pharaoh, the infertile left needs the fertile religious right to work and yet hates them and wants them destroyed. Like Pharaoh, the infertile have created a system of dependence for their people supported by the non-dependent and productive religious right. It's another contradiction of the Left: they need the people they hate. And needing the people you hate means servility.
The divide between the infertile managerial elite and the fertile religious producers may be a major point of contention in the next 50 to 100 years. Perhaps a new "exodus" will occur to separate public virtue from public dependency.
What to Expect When No One's Expecting by Jonathan Last reveals the coming calamity in the West and the irrationality and ideology of the Left who fail to see it coming.
I admit that this is likely an exaggeration, but there are some similarities between the infertile and Pharaoh and between the fertile and the Hebrews. Like Pharaoh, the infertile left needs the fertile religious right to work and yet hates them and wants them destroyed. Like Pharaoh, the infertile have created a system of dependence for their people supported by the non-dependent and productive religious right. It's another contradiction of the Left: they need the people they hate. And needing the people you hate means servility.
The divide between the infertile managerial elite and the fertile religious producers may be a major point of contention in the next 50 to 100 years. Perhaps a new "exodus" will occur to separate public virtue from public dependency.
What to Expect When No One's Expecting by Jonathan Last reveals the coming calamity in the West and the irrationality and ideology of the Left who fail to see it coming.
September 18, 2013
Overall a good read, but the author is a bit of a extremist insisting fertility is the cause of every malady mankind has ever encountered. I found it particularly distressing that he determined unrest in the Middle East and wars were caused by too-high populations of young, single, childless men and not, you know, corrupt governments or wealth disparity, but whatever. I enjoyed learning about population demographics related to fertility, but I was consistently annoyed by the author's political and religious overtones, insisting we ban abortion, discourage cohabitation, and start attending church. I was a fan of some of his suggestions to battle the problem of declining fertility, particularly restructuring post-secondary education. Truthfully, I'd like to read a whole book by Jonathan Last on that topic, because I found his certificate system suggestion an interesting solution to a very real problem everyone seems to be ignoring. I wasn't aware of the conundrum we're getting ourselves into by having fewer children, so I really learned a lot from this book. Great information on a topic no one thinks much about!
February 12, 2013
Good, easy-to-read & digest review of the demographic crisis of the West, the programs invented by various national govts to increase births, the failure of those programs and the consequences of low fertility. Well-written and informative; not in any way close to pedantic. Recommend it.
February 27, 2020
At its best What to Expect When No One's Expecting: America's Coming Demographic Disaster does two things. It gives a light introduction to the unfolding demographic transition experienced by developed nations, and it offers a conservative assessment. Unfortunately neither is very deep, nor worth an entire book.
The conservative bona fides are clear. Last only mentions climate change once, in a footnote (31), and to dismiss it outright. He's straight-up anti-abortion (59). Last blames Social Security and Medicare taxes for depressing childbirth rates (45), which is odd, but neatly fits into the anti-social services ideology. He's very pro-marriage and anti people living together (65). He mentions Hungary's government in a sympathetic way, without noting that it's possibly the most right wing in Europe.
There are some interesting insights, like the observation that for some, rearing children is "an indicator of failure" (72). The author recommends Walter Russell Mead's idea of having the federal government offer a kind of GED/GRE exam, letting test takers test out of various undergrad degrees (165). Last is right to pick on the easy target of Paul Erlich's population models.
The style is very breezy and accessible.
At various points What to Expect is just off. Its discussion of higher education is narrow (only covering elite institutions) and very shallow (mentions sticker price only, not covering the reality of discount rates - i.e., what people actually pay). The book makes the strange case that allowing employers to test applicants for IQ would drive down college prices (164).
You can see the results of these problems in the book's conclusion, with recommendations on how to boost childbirth rates. One is to praise religious authority for encouraging marriage and procreation (157-9). Another is to cut Social Security, so as to cut SS taxes, which will somehow egg women on to having more kids (162-3). There's the claim that colleges should become more child-friendly (166), which ignores the huge numbers of parents taking classes. There's a call for more telecommuting, which would increase childbirth (168) - I'm still not seeing this. There's a fuddled call that thee US welcome more immigrants while... not welcoming a lot of immigrants (169). And a stuttering recommendation for more professions of faith without government policy (thanks for that) or... anything else, kind of (170).
So if you're looking for a conservative take on the huge demographic transition we're experiencing, What to Expect When No One's Expecting is a light intro and summary, akin to reading some blog posts.
If you're interested in contemporary demographics, I recommend this book and that one instead. And I blog about the topic, too.
The conservative bona fides are clear. Last only mentions climate change once, in a footnote (31), and to dismiss it outright. He's straight-up anti-abortion (59). Last blames Social Security and Medicare taxes for depressing childbirth rates (45), which is odd, but neatly fits into the anti-social services ideology. He's very pro-marriage and anti people living together (65). He mentions Hungary's government in a sympathetic way, without noting that it's possibly the most right wing in Europe.
There are some interesting insights, like the observation that for some, rearing children is "an indicator of failure" (72). The author recommends Walter Russell Mead's idea of having the federal government offer a kind of GED/GRE exam, letting test takers test out of various undergrad degrees (165). Last is right to pick on the easy target of Paul Erlich's population models.
The style is very breezy and accessible.
At various points What to Expect is just off. Its discussion of higher education is narrow (only covering elite institutions) and very shallow (mentions sticker price only, not covering the reality of discount rates - i.e., what people actually pay). The book makes the strange case that allowing employers to test applicants for IQ would drive down college prices (164).
You can see the results of these problems in the book's conclusion, with recommendations on how to boost childbirth rates. One is to praise religious authority for encouraging marriage and procreation (157-9). Another is to cut Social Security, so as to cut SS taxes, which will somehow egg women on to having more kids (162-3). There's the claim that colleges should become more child-friendly (166), which ignores the huge numbers of parents taking classes. There's a call for more telecommuting, which would increase childbirth (168) - I'm still not seeing this. There's a fuddled call that thee US welcome more immigrants while... not welcoming a lot of immigrants (169). And a stuttering recommendation for more professions of faith without government policy (thanks for that) or... anything else, kind of (170).
So if you're looking for a conservative take on the huge demographic transition we're experiencing, What to Expect When No One's Expecting is a light intro and summary, akin to reading some blog posts.
If you're interested in contemporary demographics, I recommend this book and that one instead. And I blog about the topic, too.
July 16, 2013
I was inspired to read this book after reading Dan Brown's Inferno which warns of the looming danger of overpopulation of our planet and descending into a chaotic environment of flesh overcrowded by more flesh grasping for a limited supply of land, food, and water (Dante's version of Hell).
Jonathan Last believes just the opposite: people are having too few babies and in the next generation our population will begin to shrink. It's already happening in countries like Japan (more adult diapers are purchased than baby diapers) and Italy (more deaths than births each year).
The magic number for fertility is 2.1. At 2.1 children per couple the population will be replaced and remain stable. In 1979 the World's fertility rate was 6.0. Today it is 2.52. The US rate is just under 2.0. Our population would be shrinking if it were not for immigration particulary of Hispanics. Consider Poland's rate is 1.32. By 2100 Poland's population will shrink by 25% to 29 million people.
Last lives in "Yuppie Town" of Old Town Alexandria. Adults enjoy 4 dollar coffees at the yuppie shops and expensive art and Yoga. He noticed recently that his area of town had 4 pet grooming services, but the one child's clothing store went out of business.
Why is this happening?
1) One child policies like that of China
2) Education. The more highly educated a female is the fewer children she is likely to have.
3) Marriage later. IN 1950 the average age of first marriage was 20. In 2007 it was 26.
4) Birth Control.
5) Children are no longer an assett (they use to help Mom and Dad out on the farm) but now a liability ($800 dollar bugaboo strollers, private schools, colleges that cost 29K per year). The perception is that no one can afford children.
6) Social Security. Parents use to count on their kids to look after them socially and financially in their old age. This responsibility has now shifted to the federal goverment.
7) The Fall of Religion..religious families have more kids.
Last is worried that our economic systems will implode. He may have good evidence. In 1940 there were 159 workers to support each retiree (Social Security/Medicare). In 2010 there were 2.9 workers (Me) to support each retiree. This system is not sustainable.
Last wants us "to go forth and multiply"
What are his solutions.
1) Increase tax credits for children and decrease SS taxes for those that have multiple children. Last believes SS decreases fertility by 0.5.
2) Since 1960 the real cost of goods (housing, food, gas) in nearly every sector of American life has dropped in price except college. College tuition has increased 1000%. Make college unnecessary if you can pass certain equivalency tests.
Fascinating read. If you like statisics you will like this book.
Jonathan Last believes just the opposite: people are having too few babies and in the next generation our population will begin to shrink. It's already happening in countries like Japan (more adult diapers are purchased than baby diapers) and Italy (more deaths than births each year).
The magic number for fertility is 2.1. At 2.1 children per couple the population will be replaced and remain stable. In 1979 the World's fertility rate was 6.0. Today it is 2.52. The US rate is just under 2.0. Our population would be shrinking if it were not for immigration particulary of Hispanics. Consider Poland's rate is 1.32. By 2100 Poland's population will shrink by 25% to 29 million people.
Last lives in "Yuppie Town" of Old Town Alexandria. Adults enjoy 4 dollar coffees at the yuppie shops and expensive art and Yoga. He noticed recently that his area of town had 4 pet grooming services, but the one child's clothing store went out of business.
Why is this happening?
1) One child policies like that of China
2) Education. The more highly educated a female is the fewer children she is likely to have.
3) Marriage later. IN 1950 the average age of first marriage was 20. In 2007 it was 26.
4) Birth Control.
5) Children are no longer an assett (they use to help Mom and Dad out on the farm) but now a liability ($800 dollar bugaboo strollers, private schools, colleges that cost 29K per year). The perception is that no one can afford children.
6) Social Security. Parents use to count on their kids to look after them socially and financially in their old age. This responsibility has now shifted to the federal goverment.
7) The Fall of Religion..religious families have more kids.
Last is worried that our economic systems will implode. He may have good evidence. In 1940 there were 159 workers to support each retiree (Social Security/Medicare). In 2010 there were 2.9 workers (Me) to support each retiree. This system is not sustainable.
Last wants us "to go forth and multiply"
What are his solutions.
1) Increase tax credits for children and decrease SS taxes for those that have multiple children. Last believes SS decreases fertility by 0.5.
2) Since 1960 the real cost of goods (housing, food, gas) in nearly every sector of American life has dropped in price except college. College tuition has increased 1000%. Make college unnecessary if you can pass certain equivalency tests.
Fascinating read. If you like statisics you will like this book.
July 23, 2013
This is defiantly one of the best books of 2013. Mr. Last is a brilliant insightful thinker who gives a deep analysis of the decline of fertility. It's really interesting to know all the factors that pay a role in fertility decline. I've read many reviews prior to picking this up,and many people have said Mr Last is subconsciously imposing religious beliefs on his audience. I dont think this is true,I think majority of the factors he discusses are based on what society deems as moral or immoral, and the decisions made by it. I agree with majority of his topics, one being peoples morals have changed since back then(1960's), thus effecting fertility rate. What society deems as moral and immoral changes throughout time, which explains why a lot of people do not agree with majority of the content discussed in this book.He is also comparing the morality from back then to now. The title is not too strong for the content provided, the decline fertility rate in America now is a disaster, but it all depends what people think a disaster is. The overall message that I've gotten from this book is that we as a society have become more selfish. For example women back then thought making/having a family was the most important thing, as opposed to now in society where women think education is more important;the more selfish we are the more the fertility rate declines. Mr Last is just explaining "why" not so much imposing his religious thoughts or political standpoint.
**This reminds me of The Matrix, no one wants to take the red pill and accept the factors that play a role in the decline of fertility.
**This reminds me of The Matrix, no one wants to take the red pill and accept the factors that play a role in the decline of fertility.
July 9, 2013
What happens when people have smaller families? It used to be that people thought the world would be overcrowded, and we SHOULD have smaller families. But in fact the opposite is happening: The world population is due to shrink, it has already started in some countries, and the results are disastrous.
Jonathan Last writes an intriguing book about the facts and consequences of a world where people are having fewer and fewer babies. People are having smaller families, and this causes numerous problems that are only beginning to surface. It affects social and economic issues throughout society. He discusses the numerous possible sources of this shrinkage, some failed attempts that countries have tried to encourage bigger families, and a few solutions for moving forward.
Not all his solutions sound practical, and indeed he admits that it is difficult if not impossible to reverse the trend when the trend for small families gets too out of hand. But it is worth thinking through some possible solutions to try, and he gives it a go.
I would highly recommend this book.
Jonathan Last writes an intriguing book about the facts and consequences of a world where people are having fewer and fewer babies. People are having smaller families, and this causes numerous problems that are only beginning to surface. It affects social and economic issues throughout society. He discusses the numerous possible sources of this shrinkage, some failed attempts that countries have tried to encourage bigger families, and a few solutions for moving forward.
Not all his solutions sound practical, and indeed he admits that it is difficult if not impossible to reverse the trend when the trend for small families gets too out of hand. But it is worth thinking through some possible solutions to try, and he gives it a go.
I would highly recommend this book.
August 15, 2020
White men need to get over themselves. You are a dying breed and you’re pissed about losing power. You don’t care about the population decline, you care about the decline in the number of white babies being born. You don’t want to live in a multicultural/multiracial world and so you whine about advancements women have made, and you’re angry that we don’t all want to marry young and have a family.
June 25, 2017
This book was an interesting look at demographics across the world (including the U.S) and the significant decline in fertility. Our postmodern/secular culture has obviously not given this issue any thought, but many Christians probably haven't either. Either way, the decline in fertility unleashes many problems upon society.
This book is about those problems, and Last doesn't offer many solutions until chapter nine, entitled, "How To Make Babies". Last doesn't reveal his religious influence either way, but he does respect the religious and the many benefits the faithful provide to society. Last's comments are helpful when he states, "it is important we preserve the role of religion in our public square, resisting those critics who see theocracy lurking behind every corner. Our government should be welcoming of, not hostile to, believers-if for no other reason than they're the ones who create most of the future taxpayers" (p.170).
Another helpful comment Last makes is his observation that (like most other problems) more government is not the answer. Last rightly states, "Our best bet, I suspect, is not to try to remake the culture with the levers of government, but to support those who want children and let them engage the culture with their lives" (p.172).
Last's book was not hopeful by any means, so those two comments stood out. I think his book is worth the read so that more people will understand what to expect when no one's expecting.
This book is about those problems, and Last doesn't offer many solutions until chapter nine, entitled, "How To Make Babies". Last doesn't reveal his religious influence either way, but he does respect the religious and the many benefits the faithful provide to society. Last's comments are helpful when he states, "it is important we preserve the role of religion in our public square, resisting those critics who see theocracy lurking behind every corner. Our government should be welcoming of, not hostile to, believers-if for no other reason than they're the ones who create most of the future taxpayers" (p.170).
Another helpful comment Last makes is his observation that (like most other problems) more government is not the answer. Last rightly states, "Our best bet, I suspect, is not to try to remake the culture with the levers of government, but to support those who want children and let them engage the culture with their lives" (p.172).
Last's book was not hopeful by any means, so those two comments stood out. I think his book is worth the read so that more people will understand what to expect when no one's expecting.
March 8, 2019
Last is very engaging in his book. Demographics is not an easy subject to make interesting, but he manages to do it. That being said, I have some complaints.
When I mentioned this to a friend of mine, she said, "You want to know why women don't have kids? I hope he actually asked a woman!" Pretty sure he didn't. Its a bit ironic that this is written by a white man. "I wonder why women aren't having children... It's clearly because we live in a self centered society and also car seats."
He does bring up several interesting points about fertility rates and reasons why they are dropping. They all sound valid although I think a deeper look at some of those studies he cited would have legitimized it more. I was expecting at the end he would have a some possible solutions to address the problem, but like all white men (I kid, I kid) he's happy to point out the problem, but not a viable solution.
It's worth read, but I think some of it should be taken with grain of salt.
When I mentioned this to a friend of mine, she said, "You want to know why women don't have kids? I hope he actually asked a woman!" Pretty sure he didn't. Its a bit ironic that this is written by a white man. "I wonder why women aren't having children... It's clearly because we live in a self centered society and also car seats."
He does bring up several interesting points about fertility rates and reasons why they are dropping. They all sound valid although I think a deeper look at some of those studies he cited would have legitimized it more. I was expecting at the end he would have a some possible solutions to address the problem, but like all white men (I kid, I kid) he's happy to point out the problem, but not a viable solution.
It's worth read, but I think some of it should be taken with grain of salt.
November 4, 2025
a veritable symphony of great replacement dog whistles. more deft and readable than brad wilcox i guess. he’s very “don’t worry i’m the chill kind of anti-abortion guy with a sense of humor!” and then he’ll drop the word “feminist” with so much venom you remember what kind of book you’re reading. includes the infinitely revealing quote “i’m not asking for a yankee version of afghanistan; something like the balance we had in the 1950s would be dandy.”
February 4, 2020
+4 stars : interesting topic
-4 stars : general feeling of being right-wing anti-choice judgmental snarked throughout
+1 pity star : quick easy read
-4 stars : general feeling of being right-wing anti-choice judgmental snarked throughout
+1 pity star : quick easy read
February 20, 2020
This is well-researched, well-thought-out, and well-written. I have some quibbles with JVL’s conclusions - in particular the section about college (bypassing it altogether or making it easier for people to start a family while in college will not help raise the birth rate; too many people go to college for “the college experience”) - but his ultimate ideas are backed by solid data: People as a whole are not having children because they don’t want them, and nothing short of a seismic shift in culture will change that.
January 17, 2015
Demography isn't a sexy topic for someone who isn't a sociologist (or a self-describe would-be-sociologist-librarian). However, population growth (or lack thereof) affects big picture stuff like entitlement solvency, political stability, and a society's rate of innovation. And of course the big picture stuff affects the little picture at the individual.
Last argues our society has gone through demographic transitions as time has passed. The First Demographic Transition (FTD) occurred as we shifted from an agrarian to a more industrialized society. Parents went from desiring (and needing) large families for income and as a push against infant mortality to desiring fewer children. Parents sought to invest more in each child. As infant mortality declined, parents had had less reason to worry they would lose any child that was born. Fewer children also became more desirable because we shifted from a manual labor intensive society to a knowledge-based society. In this new society, you needed mind muscle more than body muscle...hence more education. When parents want to pay for their children to attend higher education, they obviously limit the number of children they have. It should be noted FTD began long before birth control in the 1800s.
The worldwide Second Demographic Transition (STD) shifts from people wanting few children to no children. Children are completely seen as a financial liability, prohibitive to fun, and not so essential to lead a meaningful life. Consider the cost of daycare (or a parent's lost wages to stay home) or college tuition: it is becoming more and more cost-prohibitive for people to have children. Governmental policies like China's One-Child Policy have meant to stilt the population bomb that never was. Now we have gone dangerously far over the precipice of population contraction. Societies that have tried to re-establish total replacement fertility (TRF) have not been success. This has dire implications for entitlements such as Social Security (also consider other public pension systems) and technological innovation rates as societies age.
It's not a five-star because Last uses a shock title about how bad this is, expounds upon how bad this is by offering many interconnected factors have powered the SDT and their consequences, emphasizes how society's attempting to to boost TRF have failed, and then spends the last chapter offering policy solutions. I understand Last wants to be positive and change our course if possible, but the last chapter felt like a walk-back of everything he discussed before. As in: Hey, I know I said it was bad, and we really should make these policy changes to make this better, but hey, don't worry...it's not really THAT bad.
Last gives you LOTS of data....strings of numbers can be dry. Move through them, and you will be rewarded with country anecdotes and illustrations. Overall a very timely book I highly recommend for understanding why population matters to you here and now...and for your entire lifespan...and for your children if you have any.
Last argues our society has gone through demographic transitions as time has passed. The First Demographic Transition (FTD) occurred as we shifted from an agrarian to a more industrialized society. Parents went from desiring (and needing) large families for income and as a push against infant mortality to desiring fewer children. Parents sought to invest more in each child. As infant mortality declined, parents had had less reason to worry they would lose any child that was born. Fewer children also became more desirable because we shifted from a manual labor intensive society to a knowledge-based society. In this new society, you needed mind muscle more than body muscle...hence more education. When parents want to pay for their children to attend higher education, they obviously limit the number of children they have. It should be noted FTD began long before birth control in the 1800s.
The worldwide Second Demographic Transition (STD) shifts from people wanting few children to no children. Children are completely seen as a financial liability, prohibitive to fun, and not so essential to lead a meaningful life. Consider the cost of daycare (or a parent's lost wages to stay home) or college tuition: it is becoming more and more cost-prohibitive for people to have children. Governmental policies like China's One-Child Policy have meant to stilt the population bomb that never was. Now we have gone dangerously far over the precipice of population contraction. Societies that have tried to re-establish total replacement fertility (TRF) have not been success. This has dire implications for entitlements such as Social Security (also consider other public pension systems) and technological innovation rates as societies age.
It's not a five-star because Last uses a shock title about how bad this is, expounds upon how bad this is by offering many interconnected factors have powered the SDT and their consequences, emphasizes how society's attempting to to boost TRF have failed, and then spends the last chapter offering policy solutions. I understand Last wants to be positive and change our course if possible, but the last chapter felt like a walk-back of everything he discussed before. As in: Hey, I know I said it was bad, and we really should make these policy changes to make this better, but hey, don't worry...it's not really THAT bad.
Last gives you LOTS of data....strings of numbers can be dry. Move through them, and you will be rewarded with country anecdotes and illustrations. Overall a very timely book I highly recommend for understanding why population matters to you here and now...and for your entire lifespan...and for your children if you have any.
October 5, 2013
This is a quick, entertaining introduction to one of the most important trends of our time: declining fertility throughout most of the world. In a short time this will profoundly affect social welfare programs everywhere (not enough young people to support things like Social Security and Medicare); not too long after that it will cause actual population decline, with mostly unforeseen consequences, though Jonathan Last tries to outline a few.
Most people are unaware of the 'Gray Tsunami'; those who know about it sometimes like to imagine it as a first-world problem. In fact fertility is declining almost everywhere except tropical Africa. The author of this book is obviously a social conservative, but avoids doctrinaire positions when it comes to the topic at hand. For example, he notes that immigration is really the only thing sustaining population growth in the US; rather than seeing immigration as a threat he believes that in a few years we may be begging for immigrants to sustain our aging population with their labor and taxes. And immigrants may not be easy to find: fertility is declining rapidly in Latin America and Asia.
At times I wished that there were more numbers and graphs in this book, though I realize that it's meant to be a popular introduction to an issue that's hard to present without a lot of charts that many people will be unable or unwilling to spend time on.
Jonathan Last tries to be unsensational and hopeful in his exploration of the possible effects of this great demographic transition. But he makes clear that we're really going into historically uncharted terrritory. Some of the short-term effects are understandable and don't look at all good; for many, though, there's just no way to know. Last spends some time on countries' efforts to stop or reverse decline: Japan and Russia, for example, are aware that this is a crisis, but have not been able to affect the trend.
As an Orthodox Christian, I was interested to read that the nation of Georgia was actually able to do something about falling population, through the intervention of Patriarch Ilia, who promised to personally baptize every infant born to a Georgian family that already had two children. I doubt that this would have an effect in many modern countries, though: Georgia is a highly religious country (most young people go to church!); as the author notes, it's hard to think of an intervention by a religious leader that would have the same effect here or in Europe.
All in all, though this is an entertainingly-written book, it ends up being grim reading. I was left with one question whose answer might have cheered me up a bit: while it's obvious that a declining population will have many wrenching effects in the years to come, might it be that a stable, smaller population would be better for all of us once we've gotten there? We don't know, but I would have appreciated some discussion of it here.
Most people are unaware of the 'Gray Tsunami'; those who know about it sometimes like to imagine it as a first-world problem. In fact fertility is declining almost everywhere except tropical Africa. The author of this book is obviously a social conservative, but avoids doctrinaire positions when it comes to the topic at hand. For example, he notes that immigration is really the only thing sustaining population growth in the US; rather than seeing immigration as a threat he believes that in a few years we may be begging for immigrants to sustain our aging population with their labor and taxes. And immigrants may not be easy to find: fertility is declining rapidly in Latin America and Asia.
At times I wished that there were more numbers and graphs in this book, though I realize that it's meant to be a popular introduction to an issue that's hard to present without a lot of charts that many people will be unable or unwilling to spend time on.
Jonathan Last tries to be unsensational and hopeful in his exploration of the possible effects of this great demographic transition. But he makes clear that we're really going into historically uncharted terrritory. Some of the short-term effects are understandable and don't look at all good; for many, though, there's just no way to know. Last spends some time on countries' efforts to stop or reverse decline: Japan and Russia, for example, are aware that this is a crisis, but have not been able to affect the trend.
As an Orthodox Christian, I was interested to read that the nation of Georgia was actually able to do something about falling population, through the intervention of Patriarch Ilia, who promised to personally baptize every infant born to a Georgian family that already had two children. I doubt that this would have an effect in many modern countries, though: Georgia is a highly religious country (most young people go to church!); as the author notes, it's hard to think of an intervention by a religious leader that would have the same effect here or in Europe.
All in all, though this is an entertainingly-written book, it ends up being grim reading. I was left with one question whose answer might have cheered me up a bit: while it's obvious that a declining population will have many wrenching effects in the years to come, might it be that a stable, smaller population would be better for all of us once we've gotten there? We don't know, but I would have appreciated some discussion of it here.
July 14, 2013
Birth rate statistics in hand, Jonathan Last is the most recent journalist (after the liberal-leaning Megan McArdle of the Atlantic and conservative Ross Doubthas of the Times) to posit that the United States is about to experience a population decline in the next 15 years. Against the seemingly illogical predictions of demographic heavyweights like the UN, Last tries to predict in cheerful and unalarmed tones what consequences the declining birth rate will have on the US. The outcomes he predicts are mostly in economic terms, a decline in productivity and innovation and an increased need to tear-down abandoned and useless buildings. These tangible scenarios he derives from industrialized countries already below the population replacement level like Japan and Germany. Seeking the causes of the coming problem, the book is gently critical of trends like the 'Child Free Movement' and the quality vrs. quantity approach to fertility, but definitely not against careers for women or against immigrants as many seem to strangely glean from his praise of Chicano fertility. HOWEVER, the book seems to me to leave out an important part of the picture: delayed fertility and to paint too sharp a distinction between the child haves and nots. As critical demographers have pointed out, Last infers a sudden population shortfall where he should probably see that women are not going childless for all their lives, they are merely giving birth in their 30's instead of their 20's. On the other hand, those same demographers do need to realize that even if Last overlooks this nuance, the upshot is about the same. Less children are being created in any given time period as long as people put off marriage and children. And lets not forget that even when people get around to having children, every indicator shows the average family is still having less kids. Another point Last seems to lose sight of in comparing the child haves and the have-nots' ideological inclinations, is that even many of those who fit the 'have' typology (conservative and religious) are waiting to have children. Though it may seen to those who fit this description that the shortfall of the liberal population around the middle of the century is a positive thing, (particularly accompanied by the lower rate of ideological attrition by 'the child haves' ) this could be a misleading indicator. Last forgets to factor in the thesis by Doubthas in Bad Religion that both the terms conservative and religious mean are more watered down than they used to be evening out the playing field. Finally it seems to me that Last's recommendations for helping those who want to have children, though modest, do not tame the materialism he diagnoses in the culture, rather his solutions seem to play into the problem. It would be too much to expect for Last or most of us to see this though.
April 3, 2013
This book offers a thorough rebuttal to the "population bomb" hype of the last few decades, showing that world population is slowing its growth and, if current trends continue, will enter rapid decline and graying in the latter half of this century. This is the central point, combined with the fact that no historical precedent exists for increasing wealth during a population implosion. Historical reasons for America's declining fertility are well researched and presented clearly. The author includes over 40 pages of citations to various studies and literature for further reading. Yet despite this he keeps the pace moving along on what would ordinarily be a pretty dreary topic.
This isn't an advocacy book for having children. It would be more accurate to say that he is laying out the demographic reality of America's future and letting the facts speak for themselves. This also isn't an advocacy book for abolishing entitlement and safety net programs, though he lays out how those programs contribute to falling fertility rates. To preempt accusations of racism and sexism in a discussion about demographics, readers would serve themselves well to read some house-keeping items from pages 9 and 10:
"Our concern isn't that Hispanic Americans are having too many babies. No, what should worry us is that while recent Hispanic immigrants have large families, their own children are likely to quickly decline toward the national average. The problem with the elevated fertility level of Hispanic Americans is that it isn't likely to last."
"I'd also like to offer a preemptive defense against readers who may take this book to be a criticism of the modern American woman. Nothing could be further from my intent. The constellation of factors that drive the baby-making decisions of couples is so vast that it's often impossible to pinpoint exactly why some women have four children and other women have none. But that should not prevent us from noticing important trends. For example, as we just noted, one of the great predictors of fertility is a woman's level of education. The more educated a woman is, on average, the fewer children she will have. To observe this is not to argue that women should be barefoot, pregnant, and waiting at home for their husbands every night with a cocktail and a smile."
This isn't an advocacy book for having children. It would be more accurate to say that he is laying out the demographic reality of America's future and letting the facts speak for themselves. This also isn't an advocacy book for abolishing entitlement and safety net programs, though he lays out how those programs contribute to falling fertility rates. To preempt accusations of racism and sexism in a discussion about demographics, readers would serve themselves well to read some house-keeping items from pages 9 and 10:
"Our concern isn't that Hispanic Americans are having too many babies. No, what should worry us is that while recent Hispanic immigrants have large families, their own children are likely to quickly decline toward the national average. The problem with the elevated fertility level of Hispanic Americans is that it isn't likely to last."
"I'd also like to offer a preemptive defense against readers who may take this book to be a criticism of the modern American woman. Nothing could be further from my intent. The constellation of factors that drive the baby-making decisions of couples is so vast that it's often impossible to pinpoint exactly why some women have four children and other women have none. But that should not prevent us from noticing important trends. For example, as we just noted, one of the great predictors of fertility is a woman's level of education. The more educated a woman is, on average, the fewer children she will have. To observe this is not to argue that women should be barefoot, pregnant, and waiting at home for their husbands every night with a cocktail and a smile."
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