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China's Coming War with Asia
China's ambition is to rise peacefully. Avoiding fierce conflicts with its Asian neighbors is essential to this goal. Jonathan Holslag makes a brilliant case for the geopolitical dilemma facing the rising China, and his argument that China will likely enter into major conflict with Asia is compelling and thoughtful. Both Chinese experts and decision-makers will find this book illuminating reading.
Asia is set for another great power war. As China's influence spreads beyond its territorial borders and its global aspirations gain momentum, so tensions with its neighbors are reaching breaking point. In this clear-sighted book, Jonathan Holslag debunks the myth of China's peaceful rise, arguing instead that China's policy of shrewd intransigence towards other Asian countries will inevitably result in serious conflict.
China's ambitions are not malicious. But what China wants ? namely to maximize its security and prosperity ? will lead to a huge power imbalance, where China towers above her neighbors, impels them into unequal partnerships, and is increasingly able to seize disputed territory. At present, China's focused and uncompromising pursuit of its own interests is bearing fruit. Many of China's neighbors are still too weak to counter Beijing's influence, and China has ably exploited divisions between them to divide and rule. But several regional powers are now joining forces to stop China. With the PRC unlikely to back down and nationalism riding high, China's coming war with Asia is already in the making.
Asia is set for another great power war. As China's influence spreads beyond its territorial borders and its global aspirations gain momentum, so tensions with its neighbors are reaching breaking point. In this clear-sighted book, Jonathan Holslag debunks the myth of China's peaceful rise, arguing instead that China's policy of shrewd intransigence towards other Asian countries will inevitably result in serious conflict.
China's ambitions are not malicious. But what China wants ? namely to maximize its security and prosperity ? will lead to a huge power imbalance, where China towers above her neighbors, impels them into unequal partnerships, and is increasingly able to seize disputed territory. At present, China's focused and uncompromising pursuit of its own interests is bearing fruit. Many of China's neighbors are still too weak to counter Beijing's influence, and China has ably exploited divisions between them to divide and rule. But several regional powers are now joining forces to stop China. With the PRC unlikely to back down and nationalism riding high, China's coming war with Asia is already in the making.
176 pages, Hardcover
First published March 16, 2015
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About the author
Jonathan Holslag
14 books101 followersJonathan Holslag is a professor of international politics at the Free University of Brussels, where he teaches diplomatic history and international politics. He also lectures on geopolitics at various defence academies in Europe and the Nato Defence College. He was invited as a guest lecturer to various universities, including the Central Party School of China, the Harvard Kennedy School, and Sciences Po, Paris.
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Displaying 1 - 7 of 7 reviews
June 17, 2015
Acknowledging the “Elephant in the Room” …
This book was reviewed as part of Amazon's Vine program which included a free copy of the book.
With America’s global dominance being challenged and even usurped both internally and externally, it is hard to ignore China’s steadily growing presence on the world stage, let alone the shadow it’s casting over its Asian neighbors. Jonathan Holslag’s provocatively titled CHINA’S COMING WAR WITH ASIA draws attention to the collision course being created by China’s planned growth and the negative impact it will likely impose on bordering nations … with force, if necessary.
Holslag postulates an eventual diplomatic/economic/military logger-head in Asia due to China’s fulfillment of four “great aspirations” (author’s term): adding frontier land, recovering lost territory, strengthening its population’s faith in the Communist state and garnering respect for its authority (both locally and globally). While China claims to be achieving its growth peacefully (and has done so to this point), the massive investment in modernizing and strengthening the military indicates force as being an available option. Holslag’s provocative scenario of China using its growing military might as a bargaining tool doesn’t totally mesh with the alarming sentiment of war that book’s title indicates (including a cover featuring a ticking clock with a missile and military jet for hands). But, it is certainly hard to ignore the logic of China using its military as a tool to achieve its goals … especially when disputing territory with a nuclear power like India or nearby nations backed by the US (Japan, for example).
The book kept reminding me of a familiar 20th century theme of hegemonic expansion exhibited by Germany and Japan to achieve similar “aspirations”. While the author states China’s rise is centered more on security than hegemony, I felt the supporting data somewhat marginalizes China’s long (dynastic) history and a general principle of communism … ideological expansion. With onetime ally Russia no longer retaining “superpower” status, the US and its strong economic and military presence in Asia seems to be the biggest issue for China. Without directly saying so, Holslag appears to illustrate an escalating proxy war in Asia between China and the US, both economically and militarily (the author even refers to the military situation as being Cold-War like). Holslag doesn’t venture into predicting the outcome of the “coming war”.
CHINA’S COMING WAR WITH ASIA is certainly provides food-for-thought, but I felt the book was a little narrow in focus and/or somewhat incomplete. While it is hard to disagree with many of the issues Holslag presents, I was somewhat bothered by what ingredients weren’t added to the mix. How do a billion+ Chinese people factor into this scenario, what about Europe and its connections to Asia and most notably, what about North Korea (an unstable, bordering nuclear power that has presented a host of problems for China over the years)?
This book was reviewed as part of Amazon's Vine program which included a free copy of the book.
With America’s global dominance being challenged and even usurped both internally and externally, it is hard to ignore China’s steadily growing presence on the world stage, let alone the shadow it’s casting over its Asian neighbors. Jonathan Holslag’s provocatively titled CHINA’S COMING WAR WITH ASIA draws attention to the collision course being created by China’s planned growth and the negative impact it will likely impose on bordering nations … with force, if necessary.
Holslag postulates an eventual diplomatic/economic/military logger-head in Asia due to China’s fulfillment of four “great aspirations” (author’s term): adding frontier land, recovering lost territory, strengthening its population’s faith in the Communist state and garnering respect for its authority (both locally and globally). While China claims to be achieving its growth peacefully (and has done so to this point), the massive investment in modernizing and strengthening the military indicates force as being an available option. Holslag’s provocative scenario of China using its growing military might as a bargaining tool doesn’t totally mesh with the alarming sentiment of war that book’s title indicates (including a cover featuring a ticking clock with a missile and military jet for hands). But, it is certainly hard to ignore the logic of China using its military as a tool to achieve its goals … especially when disputing territory with a nuclear power like India or nearby nations backed by the US (Japan, for example).
The book kept reminding me of a familiar 20th century theme of hegemonic expansion exhibited by Germany and Japan to achieve similar “aspirations”. While the author states China’s rise is centered more on security than hegemony, I felt the supporting data somewhat marginalizes China’s long (dynastic) history and a general principle of communism … ideological expansion. With onetime ally Russia no longer retaining “superpower” status, the US and its strong economic and military presence in Asia seems to be the biggest issue for China. Without directly saying so, Holslag appears to illustrate an escalating proxy war in Asia between China and the US, both economically and militarily (the author even refers to the military situation as being Cold-War like). Holslag doesn’t venture into predicting the outcome of the “coming war”.
CHINA’S COMING WAR WITH ASIA is certainly provides food-for-thought, but I felt the book was a little narrow in focus and/or somewhat incomplete. While it is hard to disagree with many of the issues Holslag presents, I was somewhat bothered by what ingredients weren’t added to the mix. How do a billion+ Chinese people factor into this scenario, what about Europe and its connections to Asia and most notably, what about North Korea (an unstable, bordering nuclear power that has presented a host of problems for China over the years)?
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February 7, 2017German Edition: Frieden auf Chinesisch: Warum in Asien Krieg droht.
August 28, 2024
And now I am 100% sure Holslag is a China-Hugger. Way to uninformed and positive about China. He really should travel around in China more speak to people and listen to their problems. Every time I go there (and it will soon be my 16th time) I only hear about problems. The extremely high educational demands that more and more kids drive to insanity, depression and suicide, corruption, food safety problems, the desire from anyone with a little bit of money to immigrate, the endless estates with half completed buildings that no-one wants to buy, pollution, lack of any form of justice system, the medical system in general, declining economy, more and more companies, shops and businesses that go bust. Holslag would have done better to integrate this in his narrative as only then it becomes visible on what dangerous grounds the country is dealing.
No matter how successful China economically is. It is a system that is slowly collapsing under its own foundations because it is a totalitarian regime. The country has so much problems internally that Holslag never takes in consideration. He talks about internal policy but doesn't really give a concrete answer as to referring to the title. Will it or not ? As such the title is misleading.
People that really want understand the China after Mao are much better off reading China After Mao from Frank Dikotter instead. He gives a much more realistic picture of what is really going especially because he talks a lot about the internal problems. In the book he also warns for the so called 'China watchers' and not to trust them. Here I can see why.
No matter how successful China economically is. It is a system that is slowly collapsing under its own foundations because it is a totalitarian regime. The country has so much problems internally that Holslag never takes in consideration. He talks about internal policy but doesn't really give a concrete answer as to referring to the title. Will it or not ? As such the title is misleading.
People that really want understand the China after Mao are much better off reading China After Mao from Frank Dikotter instead. He gives a much more realistic picture of what is really going especially because he talks a lot about the internal problems. In the book he also warns for the so called 'China watchers' and not to trust them. Here I can see why.
August 3, 2015
Na zijn boek over Europa, ‘De kracht van het paradijs’, keert Jonathan Holslag terug naar China. Na zijn indrukwekkende studie over Europa blijft dit nieuwe boek iets achter bij de misschien te hoge verwachtingen. Holslag beschrijft de opmars van China als Aziatische macht in een heldere en lezenswaardige studie. De eerste hoofdstukken, die meer historisch zijn, stellen teleur. Holslags bronnen zijn daar soms verouderd, zijn analyse wat oppervlakkig. Op dreef komt hij pas naarmate hij over de laatste twee decennia en het heden schrijft.
Zijn belangrijkste punt is dat het Chinese internationale beleid door een aantal constanten wordt gedreven, die niet veranderd zijn sinds de Volksrepubliek op het internationale toneel verscheen, waaronder het streven naar economische macht om de eigen welvaart te vergroten en teruggave van wat het als de ‘verloren gebieden’ ziet, zoals Taiwan. De legitimiteit van de Communistische Partij is er op gestoeld. China meent dat het zich decennialang uitermate terughoudend heeft opgesteld en begrijpt niet dat het door zijn buurlanden als een bedreiging kan worden gezien: het wil immers slechts herstel van zijn rechtmatige plek in het internationale bestel. Holslag besteedt veel aandacht aan de (agressieve) economische politiek van China en aan het – vooral maritieme – defensiebeleid. Optimistisch is hij niet. Terugvallende economische groei kan de regering dwingen de nationalistische kaart te spelen – iets wat ook de regeringen van Oost- en Zuidoost-Aziatische buren doen. Een bijzonder interessante rode lijn is dat China steeds meer bereid is de dialoog met zijn internationale partners aan te gaan, maar geen enkele bereidheid heeft getoond om op voor China wezenlijke punten enige concessie te doen. Dat van uitstel afstel komt, geldt voor het Chinese leiderschap niet.
Het perspectief van het boek is geheel Chinees en de invalshoek van de buurlanden en de Verenigde Staten ontbreekt vrijwel. Daarmee zou het boek nog aan overtuigingskracht hebben gewonnen, maar daar staat tegenover de Holslag veel Chinese bronnen gebruikt. De laatste hoofdstukken zijn daarmee de beste van het boek.
Zijn belangrijkste punt is dat het Chinese internationale beleid door een aantal constanten wordt gedreven, die niet veranderd zijn sinds de Volksrepubliek op het internationale toneel verscheen, waaronder het streven naar economische macht om de eigen welvaart te vergroten en teruggave van wat het als de ‘verloren gebieden’ ziet, zoals Taiwan. De legitimiteit van de Communistische Partij is er op gestoeld. China meent dat het zich decennialang uitermate terughoudend heeft opgesteld en begrijpt niet dat het door zijn buurlanden als een bedreiging kan worden gezien: het wil immers slechts herstel van zijn rechtmatige plek in het internationale bestel. Holslag besteedt veel aandacht aan de (agressieve) economische politiek van China en aan het – vooral maritieme – defensiebeleid. Optimistisch is hij niet. Terugvallende economische groei kan de regering dwingen de nationalistische kaart te spelen – iets wat ook de regeringen van Oost- en Zuidoost-Aziatische buren doen. Een bijzonder interessante rode lijn is dat China steeds meer bereid is de dialoog met zijn internationale partners aan te gaan, maar geen enkele bereidheid heeft getoond om op voor China wezenlijke punten enige concessie te doen. Dat van uitstel afstel komt, geldt voor het Chinese leiderschap niet.
Het perspectief van het boek is geheel Chinees en de invalshoek van de buurlanden en de Verenigde Staten ontbreekt vrijwel. Daarmee zou het boek nog aan overtuigingskracht hebben gewonnen, maar daar staat tegenover de Holslag veel Chinese bronnen gebruikt. De laatste hoofdstukken zijn daarmee de beste van het boek.
June 24, 2015
The rise of modern China and its ambitions in the 21st century
China's increasing assertiveness in Asia, its dominance in the global economy and confrontation with the United States is a very serious political issue in 21st century: It poses a significant threat to the peace and stability in the world. Author Jonathan Holslag discusses these views in this book with a large focus on China's long term economic strategy, deployment of resources, national defense, and its simmering border disputes with its Asian neighbors. Most threatened are the smaller South East Asian countries which are militarily and geographically at a disadvantage. China has successfully used "cut & divide" strategy to enhance local hostilities among other Asian countries.
China is altering the regional balance of power but it is behind United States. Its military capabilities have been modernized but technologically not superior. Its economy has grown but dangerously unbalanced distancing the rich from its vast poor population by a significant factor. In the long run, the popular uprising for social justice would be powerful enough to force the unfair communist regime to bring social, political and economic reforms.
Holslag's analysis is somewhat flawed in the sense he concentrates exclusively on China's economy and largely ignores how other major countries in the region, especially India and Japan are doing to combat the threat from China. The author's tone is fair but his conclusions are not unexpected.
China's increasing assertiveness in Asia, its dominance in the global economy and confrontation with the United States is a very serious political issue in 21st century: It poses a significant threat to the peace and stability in the world. Author Jonathan Holslag discusses these views in this book with a large focus on China's long term economic strategy, deployment of resources, national defense, and its simmering border disputes with its Asian neighbors. Most threatened are the smaller South East Asian countries which are militarily and geographically at a disadvantage. China has successfully used "cut & divide" strategy to enhance local hostilities among other Asian countries.
China is altering the regional balance of power but it is behind United States. Its military capabilities have been modernized but technologically not superior. Its economy has grown but dangerously unbalanced distancing the rich from its vast poor population by a significant factor. In the long run, the popular uprising for social justice would be powerful enough to force the unfair communist regime to bring social, political and economic reforms.
Holslag's analysis is somewhat flawed in the sense he concentrates exclusively on China's economy and largely ignores how other major countries in the region, especially India and Japan are doing to combat the threat from China. The author's tone is fair but his conclusions are not unexpected.
March 14, 2015
Superbly researched and written. Jonathan Holslag exams whether China's peaceful rise can continue give its four great aspirations that have been the foundation of China's grand strategy for two thirds of a century (integration of frontier lands, recognition and respect of sovereignty, popular support for the Chinese Communist Party, recovery of lost territory) and a newer, but no less fervent, aspiration of becoming a rich country (as opposed to its current middle-income status). Jonathan argues that China has successfully managed a domestic policy of constant growth and internal control, a foreign policy of limited concessions and conflict avoidance while modernizing and expanding its military, both policies of which are combined with a state-guided, assertive and enlightened economic policy that has leveraged China's inherent strengths and exploited its neighborhood's desires and vulnerabilities. But, China's operational approach of maximizing economic power and military power while not refusing to renounce or concede its territorial concerns has a put China on a path of collision with the other major Pacific power, the U.S., and its neighbors. There's a lot more here than I can summarize that is worthwhile for any student of China or international relations.
April 13, 2017
Na het recente bezoek van de Chinese president Xi aan zijn Amerikaanse collega Trump, sprak de media van een ommezwaai van het Amerikaanse beleid. Een week ervoor had professor Holslag gewaarschuwd voor een conflict tussen beide landen.
De these van zijn boek - verschenen vóór de verkiezing van Trump - ligt in lijn met zijn geponeerde stelling vorige week. De strategische doelstellingen van China (grootste economie, behoud van Tibet & Xinjiang, offensief richting Taiwan en de eilanden in de Zuid-Chinese Zee) zijn immers onverenigbaar met die van de VS en haar buurlanden en zullen dus vroeg of laat tot een uitbarsting leiden.
Akkoord, er is bijkomende economische samenwerking en China maakt sinds een tijd deel uit van de Wereldhandelsorganisatie. Maar economische integratie is geen garantie op een conflictvrije wereld (cf. WO I). China aarzelt niet om Noord-Korea nog de hand boven het hoofd te houden, het water van de rivier Brahmaputra als pasmunt te gebruiken tegenover India of exportquota op haar zeldzame aardmetalen te zetten. De uitbreiding van China (en bij uitbreiding van de ganse Zuid-Oost-Aziatische regio (cf Kaplan)) gaat in versneld tempo voort.
Er liggen nog meerdere gevaren voor China richting haar strategische einddoelen. Het land is de facto nog steeds een ontwikkelingsland dat worstelt met sociale en etnische onrust, een zeepbel in vastgoed en dreigende schaduwbanken. Ook milieu en de uitdaging om van een investeringseconomie naar een consumenteneconomie om te schakelen, liggen nog voor de boeg.
De these van zijn boek - verschenen vóór de verkiezing van Trump - ligt in lijn met zijn geponeerde stelling vorige week. De strategische doelstellingen van China (grootste economie, behoud van Tibet & Xinjiang, offensief richting Taiwan en de eilanden in de Zuid-Chinese Zee) zijn immers onverenigbaar met die van de VS en haar buurlanden en zullen dus vroeg of laat tot een uitbarsting leiden.
Akkoord, er is bijkomende economische samenwerking en China maakt sinds een tijd deel uit van de Wereldhandelsorganisatie. Maar economische integratie is geen garantie op een conflictvrije wereld (cf. WO I). China aarzelt niet om Noord-Korea nog de hand boven het hoofd te houden, het water van de rivier Brahmaputra als pasmunt te gebruiken tegenover India of exportquota op haar zeldzame aardmetalen te zetten. De uitbreiding van China (en bij uitbreiding van de ganse Zuid-Oost-Aziatische regio (cf Kaplan)) gaat in versneld tempo voort.
Er liggen nog meerdere gevaren voor China richting haar strategische einddoelen. Het land is de facto nog steeds een ontwikkelingsland dat worstelt met sociale en etnische onrust, een zeepbel in vastgoed en dreigende schaduwbanken. Ook milieu en de uitdaging om van een investeringseconomie naar een consumenteneconomie om te schakelen, liggen nog voor de boeg.
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