What is Donald Trump trying to achieve and where does Australia end up in all of this? What we do now will affect our destiny for the rest of this century.
Turbulence: Australian Foreign Policy in the Trump Era is an indispensable manual for understanding the present and navigating the future. It addresses the serious challenges Australia faces as Trump upends geopolitical tectonic plates and shows that a shrewd calculus is at work behind the chaos. Trump wants the United States, not China, to define and control the technical standards of the global in finance, telecommunications, space, robotics, bioengineering, nanotechnologies and manufacturing methods. That means full-spectrum rivalry with China. If economic control is not possible, Trump’s plan B is global economic separation from China. For him to achieve these goals, there are three key front Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Taiwan.
In Turbulence, Clinton Fernandes explores the forces at work in each of these front lines, and the implications for Australia. Trump wants to create an illiberal order of reactionary states with undemocratic political systems committed to weakening non-Western international associations that seek a more democratic order. Fernandes investigates how Australia is trying to remain on the winning side of the global confrontation between a US-led West and an increasingly dissatisfied rest of the world, to whom China’s outreach seems enticing.
Written with deep insight and a technical mastery of many disciplines, Turbulence is required reading for all those concerned about the world and Australia’s role in it.
Clinton Fernandes’ analysis is sharp and unsparing. He contends that Australia functions as a “secret democracy”: while the government communicates its stated objectives to the public, it withholds its true strategic aims. He sees this pattern reflected in Canberra’s troubling responses to major issues from the flawed AUKUS agreement and doubts over ever receiving the promised nuclear submarines, to its positioning on tensions involving Israel and Iran, China and Taiwan, and the devastation in Gaza.
According to Fernandes, there is no genuine double standard in Australia’s reactions to human rights abuses, rather, human rights are not the driving force behind its foreign policy. Australia continues to criticise China over the treatment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang, aligning with US efforts to keep Beijing strategically constrained. Yet when it comes to occupied Palestine, official responses are limited to expressions of “grave concern”, “deep concern”, or appeals for “calm” and “diplomacy”, even in the face of repeated Israeli atrocities.
The book feels especially timely amid the recent illegal bombing of Iran by Israel and the United States. Fernandes maintains that Australian intelligence assessments recognise Iran’s nuclear program as primarily deterrent in purpose, not offensive, and note that Iran has neither developed nor flight-tested a long-range ballistic missile capability. Penny Wong’s response to the illegality of these attacks is “I will leave it for the United States and Israel to speak of the legal basis for the attacks” as if they ever been best placed to be accountable for anything! A friend put it bluntly, Wong can "fuck off, her wokeness has aged like sour milk, like just because you're a lesbian, mate".
Ultimately, Australia remains deferential to preserve its standing with the United States. The broader US imperial project continues largely unquestioned. Whether Australians would endorse their country’s role in that project has never been put directly to them, perhaps because the answer would be too unsettling.
Author knows all the “real” motivations of nations to include the benign reasons of Iran and China /s (word frequently used throughout immediately prior to making a policy claim).
More screed than an academically balanced take. Some educational value in author’s facts…if only his analysis weren’t so openly one direction. Makes it less useful as a policy perspective.
This is a pretty easy read and you will absolutely learn while reading it.
However, particularly in the later chapters, the discussion around Australian for a policy is limited and it is repeated several times that it is Australia’s foreign policy to prove its ‘relevance’ to the United States. Whilst I think this is true, as an Australian foreign policy book I would’ve enjoyed to read more about the internal machinations of the Australian state and how policies and politics are being made. I also think it misses very significantly a discussion of the Pacific Islands and how Australia is navigating relationships with them. Without these nuances, the book is becomes very centred on American foreign policy, with the Australian state being an afterthought.
This trope that Australia just follows the United States has been argued against by the likes of Tom O’Lincoln. Yes, you might be able to come to the conclusion that Australia does follow the United States, however without an in-depth understanding of why Australia chooses to do this, you are negating the responsibility of Australia Australian policy makers who chose to follow the United States.
I also thought the first few chapters that more in-depth discuss Donald Trump’s politics to be more interesting compared to those later chapters which barely mentioned him at all.
I did appreciate that in the acknowledgements the author references his mission which is to undertake intellectual self defence to lay the basis from a more meaningful democracy. This is a very valid cause, particularly around the traditionally opaque decision-making process around Australian foreign policy. I did also think that the critical acknowledgement of Australia’s military activities was also refreshing in an error of China-hawkism.
Again, I reiterate that this is a very interesting and well researched book. It just doesn’t exactly do what it says on the tin which is analyse Australian foreign policy and the Trump era.
Less about the relationship between Australia and America than general US foreign policy. I did very much appreciate this new conceptology though, “Donald Trump is not an isolationist who wants to withdraw the United States from world affairs. Rather, he is a sovereigntist. Sovereigntists are not anti-interventionists. They are illiberal, reactionary internationalists… They later campaigned against the United Nations and challenged the legitimacy of the International Court of Justice. Many opposed international sanctions on Rhodesia in the 1960s and South Africa in the 1980s… Today’s sovereigntists aim to weaken non-Western associations that seek a more democratic international order… Under Trump, the United States is at the front of a global wave of illiberal, reactionary political parties in the EU and beyond.”
“Trump is trying to accelerate the pace of the global restructuring. There is less need for US ‘soft power’ now that the neoliberal project is exhausted and the liberal international order as a global project has collapsed.”
Everything you ever wanted to know about the real motives behind each of Australia's foreign policies. For example, the Australian government pretends that AUKUS is all about defending Australia when it's really about helping the US dominate China.
Scary but intriguing read!! I appreciated how there were alternatives provided adjacent to current policy critique, I feel like a lot of books like this don’t provide that.