Dennis Ross, the insider’s insider when it comes to Arab-Israeli negotiations, has written an amalgam of history, analysis, and memoir in the wonderfully titled Doomed to Succeed, which rigorously traces the roller-coaster ride of the U.S.-Israel relationship from Truman to Obama.
Ross, who has held key negotiating roles in every administration from Reagan on, weaves three separate themes: a very specific strategic argument about peace negotiations; a detailed narrative of official U.S.-Israeli relations from 1947 to the present; and a close-up account of what actually goes on in the negotiating rooms when leaders from the U.S. and the Middle East gather. (It’s not always pretty, but don’t look for intimate gossip or dishing; Ross is too sober a commentator to indulge in such matters. He does note that just about every American president has exploded in frustration at one time or another during negotiations.)
In an arena where polemics is a blood sport, Ross is refreshingly fair, uninterested in scoring easy debating points or indulging in false outrage. This is diplomatic prose at its best, even if it sometimes lacks bite.
Ross’s central argument: the tactic of “distancing” the U.S. from Israel to gain leverage with the Arabs is invariably counter-productive and misperceives the Middle East reality, which is that countries like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan will always place their safety and security needs ahead of their support for the Palestinians. The historical evidence he cites makes this point almost unassailable. American officials constantly worried that support for Israel would cost the country politically or economically. It rarely did, for the simple reason that Arab nations calibrated their relations with the U.S. first, before responding to Palestinian interests. (The 1973 oil embargo might be one exception.)
If there is a weakness in Ross’s argument, it is what he leaves out. Just as distancing from Israel didn’t strengthen our position in the Arab world, then standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Israel – “with no daylight” – doesn’t necessarily motivate Israel to support U.S. peace initiatives.
After all, Jimmy Carter had a notoriously difficult relationship with Menachem Begin and often expressed strongly negative views about Israeli policy. Yet Camp David stands as an enduring diplomatic monument on an otherwise bleak political landscape. The reason: Egypt’s Anwar Sadat, who may have been a fallible politician, was still someone willing to take genuine risks for peace. Without such a partner, U.S. policy, no matter how inventive or patient, cannot succeed. Later, President Clinton found such partners in Israeli leaders Yitzhak Rabin and Ehud Barak, but Yasser Arafat proved unwilling to reach an agreement. As Ross observes, Arafat couldn’t end the conflict because it defined him.
Ross reminds us that today’s close strategic alliance with Israel was hardly the norm. Truman, for example, recognized the new state of Israel over the vehement objections of his senior advisors, including Secretary of State George Marshall. Eisenhower maintained a chilly relationship with Israel, one that turned confrontational over the Sinai invasion in 1956. (Although Eisenhower forced Britain, France, and Israel out of the Suez Canal and Sinai, his actions hardly helped us with Egypt’s Nasser, who had his own anti-Western nationalist agenda.)
The U.S. first sold weapons directly to Israel under the Kennedy Administration, but the close strategic partnership we see today really dates from the Reagan years. (Again, the security elements of the partnership succeeded, but Reagan could no more achieve a peace agreement than Bush 41, following the Gulf War, when U.S. power and prestige were at their height.
Ross concludes with an typically judicious assessment of the Obama years. Obama has been a true friend of Israel, he argues, and the security relationship has deepened significantly during his presidency. At the same time, Obama fell into the trap of “distancing” from Israel – on issues such as settlements that have bedeviled so many other presidents – without gaining commensurate leverage from the Palestinian side. He cites Obama’s observation that Benjamin Netanyahu was too strong and Mahmoud Abbas too weak to make peace.
Ross, operating within a largely diplomatic cocoon, doesn’t really tackle the massive political shifts that have occurred in recent decades, notably the failure of the Arab Spring, the agony of Syria – and perhaps most significantly – a conservative Netanyahu government more focused on expanding settlements and security walls than finding a genuine two-state solution.
Even if the Palestinian conflict ended, Ross concludes, “The lesson here is that with key Arab friends of the United States, there will be a floor below which they will not allow the relationship to go, and a ceiling above which it cannot rise.”
As for the beleaguered “peace process?” Perhaps we’ll have to wait for another generation to produce a new Sadat or Rabin – leaders willing to make the great leap to a lasting peace. I hope Dennis Ross will be in the room when that happens.