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Nowe zimne wojny. Chiny, Rosja i wyzwanie rzucone Ameryce
Jak Ameryka rozgrywa ryzykowną rywalizację z dwoma innymi mocarstwami jądrowymi – Chinami Xi Jinpinga i Rosją Władimira Putina
David E. Sanger, zdobywca Nagrody Pulitzera, ujawnia, w jaki sposób Stany Zjednoczone zaangażowały się w rywalizację z dwoma głównymi rywalami. Przez lata USA były przekonane, że Rosja i Chiny dołączą kiedyś do zachodniego świata. Okazało się, że były to mrzonki.
Dziś te trzy mocarstwa biorą udział w rywalizacji o dominację militarną, gospodarczą, polityczną i technologiczną. Stawka jest wysoka, a państwa na całym świecie zmuszone są opowiedzieć się po jednej ze stron.
Opierając się na ogromnej liczbie wywiadów z wysoko postawionymi przedstawicielami administracji pięciu różnych prezydentów, amerykańskich agencji wywiadowczych, zagranicznych rządów i firm technologicznych, Sanger przedstawia pasjonującą opowieść skupioną wokół kluczowych pytań tej epoki:
• Czy błędy popełnione przez Putina podczas inwazji na Ukrainę będą oznaczać jego koniec i zmuszą go do sięgnięcia po arsenał jądrowy?
• Czy bezprecedensowo krótki czas uwagi Zachodu poświęcony wojnie w Ukrainie przełoży się na porażkę Kijowa?
• Czy Xi dokona inwazji na Tajwan?
• Czy przywódcy Chin i Rosji zacieśnią więzi, by wspólnie przełamać amerykańską dominację?
• I czy politycznie podzielona Ameryka wciąż jest w stanie przewodzić światu?
To podróż od pól bitew w Ukrainie do siedzib tajwańskich przedsiębiorstw produkujących najbardziej zaawansowane układy scalone, tworząca wyjątkowy obraz powrotu Stanów Zjednoczonych do konfliktu między supermocarstwami i konsekwencji, jakie ten konflikt ze sobą niesie.
David E. Sanger, zdobywca Nagrody Pulitzera, ujawnia, w jaki sposób Stany Zjednoczone zaangażowały się w rywalizację z dwoma głównymi rywalami. Przez lata USA były przekonane, że Rosja i Chiny dołączą kiedyś do zachodniego świata. Okazało się, że były to mrzonki.
Dziś te trzy mocarstwa biorą udział w rywalizacji o dominację militarną, gospodarczą, polityczną i technologiczną. Stawka jest wysoka, a państwa na całym świecie zmuszone są opowiedzieć się po jednej ze stron.
Opierając się na ogromnej liczbie wywiadów z wysoko postawionymi przedstawicielami administracji pięciu różnych prezydentów, amerykańskich agencji wywiadowczych, zagranicznych rządów i firm technologicznych, Sanger przedstawia pasjonującą opowieść skupioną wokół kluczowych pytań tej epoki:
• Czy błędy popełnione przez Putina podczas inwazji na Ukrainę będą oznaczać jego koniec i zmuszą go do sięgnięcia po arsenał jądrowy?
• Czy bezprecedensowo krótki czas uwagi Zachodu poświęcony wojnie w Ukrainie przełoży się na porażkę Kijowa?
• Czy Xi dokona inwazji na Tajwan?
• Czy przywódcy Chin i Rosji zacieśnią więzi, by wspólnie przełamać amerykańską dominację?
• I czy politycznie podzielona Ameryka wciąż jest w stanie przewodzić światu?
To podróż od pól bitew w Ukrainie do siedzib tajwańskich przedsiębiorstw produkujących najbardziej zaawansowane układy scalone, tworząca wyjątkowy obraz powrotu Stanów Zjednoczonych do konfliktu między supermocarstwami i konsekwencji, jakie ten konflikt ze sobą niesie.
632 pages, Paperback
First published April 16, 2024
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September 15, 2024
“This is a book about a global shock that took Washington by surprise: the revival of global superpower conflict. In Washington, London, and Berlin, many government officials today insist that they had seen this all coming. If so, neither the United States nor its Western allies acted as if they had. For more than thirty years – from the fall of the Berlin Wall to the invasion of Ukraine – there was a sense of certainty that the greatest byproduct of America’s undeniable victory in the Cold War was something like a permanent era of peace among the world’s nuclear superpowers… ‘What we may be witnessing,’ American political scientist Francis Fukuyama famously wrote in 1989, ‘is not just the end of the cold war, or a passing of a particular period of postwar history, but the end of history as such: that is, the end point of mankind’s ideological evolution and the universalization of western liberal democracy as the final form of government…’ Fukuyama had his doubters at the time, of course…[T]he warning signs that this optimism was deeply misplaced have only accelerated: the invasion of Georgia and then Crimea; cyberattacks launched from Moscow and Beijing; Putin’s move into Syria and his effort to influence an American presidential election and destabilize the country; Xi’s determination to use the Belt and Road Initiative…to wire Europe, Africa, and Latin America with Chinese-made 5G networks to spread Beijing’s influence. But America was distracted – by two misbegotten wars in the Middle East that cost thousands of American lives and trillions of dollars and blurred our focus on bigger strategic threats…”
- David E. Sanger, New Cold Wars: China’s Rise, Russia’s Invasion, and America’s Struggle to Defend the West
The world is rapidly moving into a new, uncertain era, if we are not already there. The United States – which began the twenty-first century uniquely situated as the sole global superpower – is in the midst of domestic turmoil that has created an uncertain foreign policy. China has not only risen to be an American competitor, but – for a while at least – appeared capable of claiming the top spot. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin’s Russia has been working to reclaim the lost pieces of the former Soviet Union. All of this came to a boil when, in February 2022, Russia invaded neighboring Ukraine.
David E. Sanger’s New Cold Wars is one of a slew of recent books that seeks to make sense of these tectonic shifts. Sanger is the White House and National Security Correspondent for The New York Times, and he has based New Cold Wars on decades of his own reporting, talking to seemingly every vital player. It starts all the way back at the end of the Cold War, when the world seemed new and full of possibility. It ends in early 2024, on a much darker note, with one war still going, and others threatening to break out.
Overall, New Cold Wars is a fantastic book, even though capturing a fluid moment in time is like making a daguerreotype of an Olympic track meet. It works because its primary concern is not what’s going to happen – which is just guesswork masquerading as prophecy – but in how we got here. As such, even though this is a work of journalism, it has the heft of history, and retains some value even though parts of it will become outdated by the time I finish this sentence, and my be entirely outdated by the time you read it.
***
New Cold Wars tells a three-pronged tale that unfolds over many years. The first involves America’s mistakes when it found itself with almost unfettered power and no peer constraints following the Soviet Union’s crackup. Sanger attributes much of the problem to the intense, post-9/11 focus on the War on Terror, at the expense of everything else. While we spent trillions of dollars – and most of our moral capital – upending the Middle East, China and Russia began stockpiling hypersonic missiles, refining the art of cyberattacks, and looking to expand.
The second prong concerns China’s remarkable ascent as an economic and military heavyweight, and the many ways it projected its enormous power. A good deal of space details President Xi Jinping’s ambitious Made in China 2025 policy, transforming itself from a manufacturer of cheap goods into a technological leader.
The final prong traces the evolution of Putin from a wary Western ally to an outright enemy, culminating in the aforementioned invasion of Ukraine.
Broadly speaking, New Cold Wars proceeds chronologically, but Sanger also separates the material by theme. Though this means that there is a bit of jumping back and forth in time, the structure works really well. Despite the many things happening all at once, all over the place, Sanger delivers a great deal of information with clarity and coherence.
***
Unsurprisingly, the two central events of New Cold Wars are the invasion of Ukraine, and the potential invasion of Taiwan. Both of these are handled exceptionally well. With regard to the Russo-Ukrainian War in particular, Sanger manages to explain Putin’s goals, the West’s belated awareness of his threat, and the tangled politics and shifting policies of American aid to Ukraine, while also providing a really taut narrative of the war itself. Having read a few books on the as-yet-unfinished conflict in Ukraine, this is probably my favorite. Sanger does a really nice job balancing all the elements of a complex, ever-shifting situation.
Though Ukraine and Taiwan are the obvious flashpoints, New Cold Wars has much more on its mind, and covers a variety of fascinating topics. For instance, there is a discussion of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a massive – and controversial – investment project begun by President Xi in 2013. As Sanger notes, the Belt and Road Initiative has been championed as a way to promote the economies of underdeveloped regions. However, it can also be seen as a form of debt-trap diplomacy, increasing China’s political leverage over nations that owe China a lot of money.
This is only one item on a long list. Sanger also covers the so-called “chip wars,” concerning the manufacture of vital semiconductors; the reemerging threat of nuclear war, sparked by Russia’s explicit threats, and China’s growing arsenal; advances in military technology, especially hypersonic weapons and drones; and cyberwarfare, including Russian and Chinese efforts to interfere with American elections, and China’s covert attempts to slip malicious code into U.S. systems, to shut them down in event a war breaks out. There is even a trip to the Solomon Islands – location of the famed World War II battle of Guadalcanal – where China and America are vying for the attentions of this tiny oceanic nation. At almost 450 pages of text, this is a pretty good-sized book, and I found almost every page to be interesting.
***
The writing in New Cold Wars is crisp and engaging. Sanger has the experienced journalist’s knack of capturing a scene with immediacy. The sequence detailing America’s final flights out of Kabul – to take one example – is quite vivid. Storytelling is important to me, and Sanger does it well.
New Cold Wars is also deeply reported. As noted above, Sanger has been at this for years, and he clearly has a lot of access. More importantly, he uses that access for a purpose. Sanger not only talks to powerful or important people, but the information he elicits contains true insights.
***
I can only imagine the challenges Sanger faced in producing New Cold Wars, with the flow of events ceaseless and evolving. As recently as a couple years ago, China’s upward arc seemed a certainty. Now, they face numerous economic and demographic challenges that confuse their long-term outlook. In the meantime, the United States’s foreign policy has veered wildly, from interventionism to isolationism and back again. No one knows where it’s going to be in a few months. All the while, the course of the Russo-Ukrainian War can change by the week, or even the hour. Sanger does a good job capturing the big picture, while acknowledging that it’s simply impossible to know how this particular age on earth is going to end.
New Cold Wars cannot – and does not – say what is going to happen in the immediate or intermediate future. However this all plays out, though – whether for good, for ill, or somewhere in between – this book is valuable in explaining the why of it all.
- David E. Sanger, New Cold Wars: China’s Rise, Russia’s Invasion, and America’s Struggle to Defend the West
The world is rapidly moving into a new, uncertain era, if we are not already there. The United States – which began the twenty-first century uniquely situated as the sole global superpower – is in the midst of domestic turmoil that has created an uncertain foreign policy. China has not only risen to be an American competitor, but – for a while at least – appeared capable of claiming the top spot. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin’s Russia has been working to reclaim the lost pieces of the former Soviet Union. All of this came to a boil when, in February 2022, Russia invaded neighboring Ukraine.
David E. Sanger’s New Cold Wars is one of a slew of recent books that seeks to make sense of these tectonic shifts. Sanger is the White House and National Security Correspondent for The New York Times, and he has based New Cold Wars on decades of his own reporting, talking to seemingly every vital player. It starts all the way back at the end of the Cold War, when the world seemed new and full of possibility. It ends in early 2024, on a much darker note, with one war still going, and others threatening to break out.
Overall, New Cold Wars is a fantastic book, even though capturing a fluid moment in time is like making a daguerreotype of an Olympic track meet. It works because its primary concern is not what’s going to happen – which is just guesswork masquerading as prophecy – but in how we got here. As such, even though this is a work of journalism, it has the heft of history, and retains some value even though parts of it will become outdated by the time I finish this sentence, and my be entirely outdated by the time you read it.
***
New Cold Wars tells a three-pronged tale that unfolds over many years. The first involves America’s mistakes when it found itself with almost unfettered power and no peer constraints following the Soviet Union’s crackup. Sanger attributes much of the problem to the intense, post-9/11 focus on the War on Terror, at the expense of everything else. While we spent trillions of dollars – and most of our moral capital – upending the Middle East, China and Russia began stockpiling hypersonic missiles, refining the art of cyberattacks, and looking to expand.
The second prong concerns China’s remarkable ascent as an economic and military heavyweight, and the many ways it projected its enormous power. A good deal of space details President Xi Jinping’s ambitious Made in China 2025 policy, transforming itself from a manufacturer of cheap goods into a technological leader.
The final prong traces the evolution of Putin from a wary Western ally to an outright enemy, culminating in the aforementioned invasion of Ukraine.
Broadly speaking, New Cold Wars proceeds chronologically, but Sanger also separates the material by theme. Though this means that there is a bit of jumping back and forth in time, the structure works really well. Despite the many things happening all at once, all over the place, Sanger delivers a great deal of information with clarity and coherence.
***
Unsurprisingly, the two central events of New Cold Wars are the invasion of Ukraine, and the potential invasion of Taiwan. Both of these are handled exceptionally well. With regard to the Russo-Ukrainian War in particular, Sanger manages to explain Putin’s goals, the West’s belated awareness of his threat, and the tangled politics and shifting policies of American aid to Ukraine, while also providing a really taut narrative of the war itself. Having read a few books on the as-yet-unfinished conflict in Ukraine, this is probably my favorite. Sanger does a really nice job balancing all the elements of a complex, ever-shifting situation.
Though Ukraine and Taiwan are the obvious flashpoints, New Cold Wars has much more on its mind, and covers a variety of fascinating topics. For instance, there is a discussion of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a massive – and controversial – investment project begun by President Xi in 2013. As Sanger notes, the Belt and Road Initiative has been championed as a way to promote the economies of underdeveloped regions. However, it can also be seen as a form of debt-trap diplomacy, increasing China’s political leverage over nations that owe China a lot of money.
This is only one item on a long list. Sanger also covers the so-called “chip wars,” concerning the manufacture of vital semiconductors; the reemerging threat of nuclear war, sparked by Russia’s explicit threats, and China’s growing arsenal; advances in military technology, especially hypersonic weapons and drones; and cyberwarfare, including Russian and Chinese efforts to interfere with American elections, and China’s covert attempts to slip malicious code into U.S. systems, to shut them down in event a war breaks out. There is even a trip to the Solomon Islands – location of the famed World War II battle of Guadalcanal – where China and America are vying for the attentions of this tiny oceanic nation. At almost 450 pages of text, this is a pretty good-sized book, and I found almost every page to be interesting.
***
The writing in New Cold Wars is crisp and engaging. Sanger has the experienced journalist’s knack of capturing a scene with immediacy. The sequence detailing America’s final flights out of Kabul – to take one example – is quite vivid. Storytelling is important to me, and Sanger does it well.
New Cold Wars is also deeply reported. As noted above, Sanger has been at this for years, and he clearly has a lot of access. More importantly, he uses that access for a purpose. Sanger not only talks to powerful or important people, but the information he elicits contains true insights.
***
I can only imagine the challenges Sanger faced in producing New Cold Wars, with the flow of events ceaseless and evolving. As recently as a couple years ago, China’s upward arc seemed a certainty. Now, they face numerous economic and demographic challenges that confuse their long-term outlook. In the meantime, the United States’s foreign policy has veered wildly, from interventionism to isolationism and back again. No one knows where it’s going to be in a few months. All the while, the course of the Russo-Ukrainian War can change by the week, or even the hour. Sanger does a good job capturing the big picture, while acknowledging that it’s simply impossible to know how this particular age on earth is going to end.
New Cold Wars cannot – and does not – say what is going to happen in the immediate or intermediate future. However this all plays out, though – whether for good, for ill, or somewhere in between – this book is valuable in explaining the why of it all.
May 2, 2024
It was kind of nice going through the recent history of how Russia and China have become more apparent in their opposition to USA. It is definitely a book from US point of view. Here in Estonia where I live, we had quite better understanding on Russia specifically, but seems like Estonia doesn't exist at all for people in this book, or maybe as one of the NATO lands-to-be-protected. The West is blind to that, and so it won't believe USA's published spy reports about start of Ukraine war (which was more of a ramp-up than start, anyway).
It was novel for me to see the political theatre around China, which has been further from my attention. Still, I knew main points of it from the news and it was good to see it as a narrative.
I was surprised that it actually goes so far that it even talks about Israel-Gaza war a bit. It hasn't been so long and publishing usually takes some time.
Overall it was a good narrative storytelling of recent history with little reveleations. It argues that there is now cold war on two fronts - Russia+China - and the main objective for USA should be to make sure they won't be too friendly, otherwise it becomes too dangerous.
It was novel for me to see the political theatre around China, which has been further from my attention. Still, I knew main points of it from the news and it was good to see it as a narrative.
I was surprised that it actually goes so far that it even talks about Israel-Gaza war a bit. It hasn't been so long and publishing usually takes some time.
Overall it was a good narrative storytelling of recent history with little reveleations. It argues that there is now cold war on two fronts - Russia+China - and the main objective for USA should be to make sure they won't be too friendly, otherwise it becomes too dangerous.
August 17, 2024
I have a lot of reviews to catch up on, so I'm going to try to make the ones I am behind on (for the most part) relatively brief.
New Cold Wars: China's Rise, Russia's Invasion, and America's Struggle to Defend the West was a decent read, but not quite the page-turning masterpiece some have reported it to be - not for me, anyway. It essentially goes back and forth between the United States and its relationship throughout modern history with its former superpower rival, Russia and current president Vladimir Putin, and the United States' relationship with its new rival superpower, China and current president Xi Jinping.
I think my struggle to really get engaged with this book was due to the fact that it is very American-centric in its view of everything. Yes, that's to be expected to some degree, of course, when you're an American journalist who will always have somewhat of an American bias to their politics, no matter how subconscious. However, I felt as though Sanger really just stuck to the American line and didn't bother much with looking at narratives in Russia and China and their explanations for relations between countries.
Most of it is about how we should have known this was coming - China's rise in the technology sector, Russia's inability to give up on the issue of Ukraine (along with most Russian citizens' POV that Ukraine will always be part of the Russian Empire - its not just the politicians, guys). A little bit too alarmist for my liking when really, I'm not sure that any existential threat was proven by the book and the research that went into it. Perhaps an existential threat of poorer economic relations with China, higher gas prices with Russia. But none that made me feel a nuclear war could start at any moment.
We know that Putin has said repeatedly how he enjoys how the global media - especially in the Western world - paint him out to be this out of control dictator who doesn't have his policies and leadership style together. It's due to Western media hysteria that Putin has largely been able to pursue the agendas he's been told not to - because as it's mentioned, and as Putin already knows - how much can we really rely on NATO, especially when it's a smaller country with not a ton of military and/or economic might behind it? Such as Ukraine? He knew that the U.S., the U.K., France, Germany, etc. - weren't going to risk the fate of their own country and the lives of their own soldiers for Ukraine, just as we didn't we he invaded Georgia (as well as his initial invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea and the Donbas). We knew it, too - or at least, we should have.
I feel like I mostly enjoyed the book because it was a good refresher on a lot of recent policy surrounding our rival powers - not so much because I learned a plethora of new information. While I may be in the minority opinion here, to me it was good, but not an absolute must-read. Therefore, three stars seems perfectly adequate. I don't regret reading it, but it wouldn't be among my top recommendations of books read lately.
June 16, 2024
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991President George Bush Sr. announced a “new world order” as a focal point of American power. This vision was carried out in America’s moment, the defeat of Saddam Hussein forcing Iraq to withdraw from Kuwait and implementing certain policies to control the Iraqi dictator. For Bush and American policy makers these events symbolized the unipolar power structure in the world that would be dominated by the United States. A major premise fostered by the new unipolar world for American policy makers was that since the Cold War was over Russia would experience greater democracy if it could be drawn into the American orbit. Secondly, China could also be democratized if it could be integrated into the liberal economic realm led by Washington. Both suppositions have turned out to be a fantasy.
Today, the reality is clear – the Russian government has evolved into a revanchist regime led by a man who believes the worst event in Russian history was the collapse of the Soviet Union. Vladimir Putin’s main goal is to restore the glory of the Soviet Union and reassemble its empire. In the case of China under the leadership of Xi Jinping any subservience to the United States and the west would not allow China to achieve its rightful place of economic and political leadership in the world. According to the Chinese government any attempt to block Chinese growth would be a humiliation, not to be tolerated.
How did the world balance of power evolve from a unipolar world under American leadership in the post 1991 era to a multipolar power structure today where two major powers, Russia and China have begun to cooperate to offset western economic power and political influence? The answer to this question, if in fact there is one forms the basis of New York Times National Security correspondent, David E. Sanger’s latest book, NEW COLD WARS: CHINA’S RISE, RUSSIA’S INVASION, AND AMERICA’S STRUGGLE TO DEFEND THE WEST.
China’s continuing rise to economic and political influence on the world stage has been and will continue to be fueled by nationalism and a sense of past grievance. The same can be said of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, a decision based on personal ego and exacerbated by Russian nationalism. For Putin, Ukraine is an illegitimate country that has always been part of Russia. Similarly, Xi argues that Taiwan is not a country and has been and will be part of China in the future. These positions by two of the world’s most powerful autocrats creates a dilemma for the United States as to how it should proceed when confronting these new perceived threats.
Putin and Xi had a common interest; “to stand up to the United States, frustrate its ambitions, and speed along what they viewed as its inevitable decline.” After the events of January 6, 2021, the bifurcation of the American political system, the ongoing drama that is Donald Trump, the right wing white supremacist movement in the United States, economic inequality, and immigration issues as the 2024 election approached, all reinforced their view that their rationale was likely to evolve in their favor. The events between the fall of the Berlin Wall and the invasion of Ukraine reflect how western leaders who accepted historian Francis Fukuyama’s analysis of 1989 that we were experiencing the end of history: “that is the end of mankind’s ideological evolution and the universalization of western liberal democracy as the final form of human government” was totally misguided. What Sanger proposes is a dose of reality.
Sanger has written a comprehensive and insightful work of contemporary history that everyone in Congress and the national security establishment should read. He writes with a verve that seemingly offsets any subject that might appear somewhat dry. In arguing his premises his facile mind seemingly encompasses all areas related to the “new Cold War” from a discussion of the history of the microchip and semi-conductors as it relates to China’s quest for world power to the historical “Finlandization” of the Russo-Finish border after World War II and its contribution to Vladimir Putin’s paranoia when it comes to the west. Sanger’s monograph is more than a compilation of autonomous topics concerning the quest on the part of China and Russia to overturn American world dominance. It is a work of synthesis that seems to turn over every rock in his quest to explain the background for his book’s title and where the world balance of power stands today.
Writing at a time that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has entered its third year with Putin and Xi seemingly moving closer together Sanger has done a magnificent job. Sanger’s lengthy career, impeccable knowledge of national security policy and issues, and his access to the major players on the world stage make him the perfect candidate to take on such an important topic. Sanger’s dominant theme is an explanation of how we misjudged what would happen at the end of the Cold War and trying to discern what comes next at a time of maximum peril and increasing threats.
Sanger begins his study by providing intimate details of how and why Putin invaded Ukraine despite American warnings and the tepid European reaction to American intelligence as Russian forces began building up around Ukraine’s borders and what they were about to perpetrate. The European reaction is couched in terms of the American invasion of Iraq and the faulty American intelligence that was disseminated pertaining to Saddam Hussein’s nuclear capabilities in 2003. For Washington policymakers it should have become increasingly clear that steering Putin in an acceptable direction, especially after he made his feelings known at the Munich Security Conference in 2007 was a pipe dream. Events in Georgia, Crimea, eastern Ukraine, the election interference of 2016 should have disabused anyone that Putin would not proceed with his personal agenda, seeing himself as another, “Peter the Great.”
In terms of President Xi the post-Clinton presidencies assumed China’s economic interests would overwhelm its other national objectives – territorial ambitions in the South China Sea, use of cyber tools to steal industrial state secrets and western “intellectual property,” and its desire for greater worldwide influence. The United States totally misread this. The west would wake up as China employed repressive technology against Hong Kong, increased its threats against Taiwan, reinforced its claims to vast areas across the South China Sea and building military bases on prefabricated islands, and trying to make as much of the world dependent upon Chinese technology. With Chinese policies at the outset of the Covid 19 outbreak, China’s reputation suffered a severe hit.
The book delves into many issues, but all are in some way related to Russia and China. The messy withdrawal from Afghanistan is recounted in detail and its impact on Russia and China. This was not the Biden administration’s finest hour, but after 20 years of US involvement in Afghanistan, Biden had experienced enough, and he was going to withdraw and ignore any advice to the contrary. Perhaps the best books on the topic are Carter Malkasian’s THE AMERICAN WAR IN AFGHANISTAN: A HISTORY; Craig Whitlock’s THE AFGHANISTAN PAPERS: A SECRET HISTORY OF THE WAR and David Lyon’s THE LONG WAR: THE INSIDE STORY OF AMERICA AND AFGHANISTAN SINCE 9/11. Sanger is correct as he points out that “superpowers have limits. America was relearning the lesson that it had failed to learn so many times before: that invading a nation is easier than building one.”
Another fascinating section deals with how the United States went from the world’s leading producers of microchips and semi-conductors in the 1980s to total dependency on Taiwan. It is clear from his portrayal that the supply line which affected all aspects of the US economy could be crippled by China if Beijing moved on Taiwan. It would not require a full scale invasion, but a quarantine/blockade of the island, or cutting underwater cables that linked Taiwan to the United States to accomplish its goals. The problem dates to US technology companies shifting their manufacturing processes overseas to Asia in the name of profits. The situation was exacerbated and highlighted during supply chain issues due to the outbreak of COVID 19 and the reliance on China for technology components. This would lead to the CHIPS ACT of 2022. Sanger warns the reader that it may appear the United States was moving to catch up pumping billions into the construction of modern technology facilities – but the US acted on a political timetable, the Chinese on a commercial one. The Biden administration has tried to overcome the China policies of a number of previous administration in areas of national security, but the problem took years to emerge, and it probably will never be totally solved. What is very interesting is there is a surprising continuity between the Trump and Biden administrations when it comes to China. Biden has largely kept in place Trump’s trade war tariffs on Chinese products, increased export restrictions to impede Chinese technological advances, and increased US rhetoric regarding Taiwan.
Sanger recounts all the major aspects of the war in Ukraine from drone warfare, to threats against the Ukrainian nuclear plant at Zaporizhzhia, Putin’s megalomania, Xi’s goal of a unipolar world led by China, the role of technology creating a new kind of warfare, the “nuclear paradox” and the issues surrounding nuclear deterrence, the “Prigozhin coup,” among numerous topics. In all areas under discussion Sanger and his long time researcher Mary K. Brooks has “has crafted a cogent, revealing account of how a generation of American officials have grappled with dangerous developments in the post-Cold War era — the rise of an enduringly authoritarian China, the return of state-on-state conflict in Europe — that have produced a geopolitical mash-up of old and new…NEW COLD WARS vividly captures the view from Washington. But, as Sanger makes clear, with America no longer an unchallenged hegemon, the fate of the U.S.-led order rests more than ever on the ideas, beliefs and emotions of people far outside the Beltway. One finishes this book wishing for equally comprehensive portraits of the view from elsewhere, especially Moscow and Beijing." *
*Justin Vogt. “Frost Warning.” New York Times, April 13, 2024.
Today, the reality is clear – the Russian government has evolved into a revanchist regime led by a man who believes the worst event in Russian history was the collapse of the Soviet Union. Vladimir Putin’s main goal is to restore the glory of the Soviet Union and reassemble its empire. In the case of China under the leadership of Xi Jinping any subservience to the United States and the west would not allow China to achieve its rightful place of economic and political leadership in the world. According to the Chinese government any attempt to block Chinese growth would be a humiliation, not to be tolerated.
How did the world balance of power evolve from a unipolar world under American leadership in the post 1991 era to a multipolar power structure today where two major powers, Russia and China have begun to cooperate to offset western economic power and political influence? The answer to this question, if in fact there is one forms the basis of New York Times National Security correspondent, David E. Sanger’s latest book, NEW COLD WARS: CHINA’S RISE, RUSSIA’S INVASION, AND AMERICA’S STRUGGLE TO DEFEND THE WEST.
China’s continuing rise to economic and political influence on the world stage has been and will continue to be fueled by nationalism and a sense of past grievance. The same can be said of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, a decision based on personal ego and exacerbated by Russian nationalism. For Putin, Ukraine is an illegitimate country that has always been part of Russia. Similarly, Xi argues that Taiwan is not a country and has been and will be part of China in the future. These positions by two of the world’s most powerful autocrats creates a dilemma for the United States as to how it should proceed when confronting these new perceived threats.
Putin and Xi had a common interest; “to stand up to the United States, frustrate its ambitions, and speed along what they viewed as its inevitable decline.” After the events of January 6, 2021, the bifurcation of the American political system, the ongoing drama that is Donald Trump, the right wing white supremacist movement in the United States, economic inequality, and immigration issues as the 2024 election approached, all reinforced their view that their rationale was likely to evolve in their favor. The events between the fall of the Berlin Wall and the invasion of Ukraine reflect how western leaders who accepted historian Francis Fukuyama’s analysis of 1989 that we were experiencing the end of history: “that is the end of mankind’s ideological evolution and the universalization of western liberal democracy as the final form of human government” was totally misguided. What Sanger proposes is a dose of reality.
Sanger has written a comprehensive and insightful work of contemporary history that everyone in Congress and the national security establishment should read. He writes with a verve that seemingly offsets any subject that might appear somewhat dry. In arguing his premises his facile mind seemingly encompasses all areas related to the “new Cold War” from a discussion of the history of the microchip and semi-conductors as it relates to China’s quest for world power to the historical “Finlandization” of the Russo-Finish border after World War II and its contribution to Vladimir Putin’s paranoia when it comes to the west. Sanger’s monograph is more than a compilation of autonomous topics concerning the quest on the part of China and Russia to overturn American world dominance. It is a work of synthesis that seems to turn over every rock in his quest to explain the background for his book’s title and where the world balance of power stands today.
Writing at a time that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has entered its third year with Putin and Xi seemingly moving closer together Sanger has done a magnificent job. Sanger’s lengthy career, impeccable knowledge of national security policy and issues, and his access to the major players on the world stage make him the perfect candidate to take on such an important topic. Sanger’s dominant theme is an explanation of how we misjudged what would happen at the end of the Cold War and trying to discern what comes next at a time of maximum peril and increasing threats.
Sanger begins his study by providing intimate details of how and why Putin invaded Ukraine despite American warnings and the tepid European reaction to American intelligence as Russian forces began building up around Ukraine’s borders and what they were about to perpetrate. The European reaction is couched in terms of the American invasion of Iraq and the faulty American intelligence that was disseminated pertaining to Saddam Hussein’s nuclear capabilities in 2003. For Washington policymakers it should have become increasingly clear that steering Putin in an acceptable direction, especially after he made his feelings known at the Munich Security Conference in 2007 was a pipe dream. Events in Georgia, Crimea, eastern Ukraine, the election interference of 2016 should have disabused anyone that Putin would not proceed with his personal agenda, seeing himself as another, “Peter the Great.”
In terms of President Xi the post-Clinton presidencies assumed China’s economic interests would overwhelm its other national objectives – territorial ambitions in the South China Sea, use of cyber tools to steal industrial state secrets and western “intellectual property,” and its desire for greater worldwide influence. The United States totally misread this. The west would wake up as China employed repressive technology against Hong Kong, increased its threats against Taiwan, reinforced its claims to vast areas across the South China Sea and building military bases on prefabricated islands, and trying to make as much of the world dependent upon Chinese technology. With Chinese policies at the outset of the Covid 19 outbreak, China’s reputation suffered a severe hit.
The book delves into many issues, but all are in some way related to Russia and China. The messy withdrawal from Afghanistan is recounted in detail and its impact on Russia and China. This was not the Biden administration’s finest hour, but after 20 years of US involvement in Afghanistan, Biden had experienced enough, and he was going to withdraw and ignore any advice to the contrary. Perhaps the best books on the topic are Carter Malkasian’s THE AMERICAN WAR IN AFGHANISTAN: A HISTORY; Craig Whitlock’s THE AFGHANISTAN PAPERS: A SECRET HISTORY OF THE WAR and David Lyon’s THE LONG WAR: THE INSIDE STORY OF AMERICA AND AFGHANISTAN SINCE 9/11. Sanger is correct as he points out that “superpowers have limits. America was relearning the lesson that it had failed to learn so many times before: that invading a nation is easier than building one.”
Another fascinating section deals with how the United States went from the world’s leading producers of microchips and semi-conductors in the 1980s to total dependency on Taiwan. It is clear from his portrayal that the supply line which affected all aspects of the US economy could be crippled by China if Beijing moved on Taiwan. It would not require a full scale invasion, but a quarantine/blockade of the island, or cutting underwater cables that linked Taiwan to the United States to accomplish its goals. The problem dates to US technology companies shifting their manufacturing processes overseas to Asia in the name of profits. The situation was exacerbated and highlighted during supply chain issues due to the outbreak of COVID 19 and the reliance on China for technology components. This would lead to the CHIPS ACT of 2022. Sanger warns the reader that it may appear the United States was moving to catch up pumping billions into the construction of modern technology facilities – but the US acted on a political timetable, the Chinese on a commercial one. The Biden administration has tried to overcome the China policies of a number of previous administration in areas of national security, but the problem took years to emerge, and it probably will never be totally solved. What is very interesting is there is a surprising continuity between the Trump and Biden administrations when it comes to China. Biden has largely kept in place Trump’s trade war tariffs on Chinese products, increased export restrictions to impede Chinese technological advances, and increased US rhetoric regarding Taiwan.
Sanger recounts all the major aspects of the war in Ukraine from drone warfare, to threats against the Ukrainian nuclear plant at Zaporizhzhia, Putin’s megalomania, Xi’s goal of a unipolar world led by China, the role of technology creating a new kind of warfare, the “nuclear paradox” and the issues surrounding nuclear deterrence, the “Prigozhin coup,” among numerous topics. In all areas under discussion Sanger and his long time researcher Mary K. Brooks has “has crafted a cogent, revealing account of how a generation of American officials have grappled with dangerous developments in the post-Cold War era — the rise of an enduringly authoritarian China, the return of state-on-state conflict in Europe — that have produced a geopolitical mash-up of old and new…NEW COLD WARS vividly captures the view from Washington. But, as Sanger makes clear, with America no longer an unchallenged hegemon, the fate of the U.S.-led order rests more than ever on the ideas, beliefs and emotions of people far outside the Beltway. One finishes this book wishing for equally comprehensive portraits of the view from elsewhere, especially Moscow and Beijing." *
*Justin Vogt. “Frost Warning.” New York Times, April 13, 2024.
October 18, 2024
Great recap of current state of foreign affairs. A bit lengthy for my taste and not really earth shattering but comprehensive and detailed account of multifaceted cold wars with possible hot fronts.
“For all the present risks, it is worth remembering that one of the most remarkable and little-discussed accomplishments of the old cold war was that the great powers never escalated their differences into a direct conflict. That is an eight-decade-long streak we cannot afford to break.”
“For all the present risks, it is worth remembering that one of the most remarkable and little-discussed accomplishments of the old cold war was that the great powers never escalated their differences into a direct conflict. That is an eight-decade-long streak we cannot afford to break.”
June 25, 2024
Just finished:
"New Cold Wars: China's Rise, Russia's Invasion, and America's Struggle to Defend the West"
By: David E. Sanger
A MUST READ!!!!!!
Sanger's book documents how the the world, and the United States found itself facing a "Great Powers" conflict. The book documents how Putin came to power as well as his desire to restore Tsarist Russia (or his vision of the glory of Peter the Great), China's desire to surpass the United States in global dominance, and how the United States but complacent after the end of the Cold war, assuming that the world would follow the democratic global order.
Written with great detail (he did say the Cuban Missile Crisis happened 50 years instead of 60), Sanger keeps his reader engrossed like a fiction author.
If you want to understand the current world and the challenges the United States faces internationally, you have to read this book.
"New Cold Wars: China's Rise, Russia's Invasion, and America's Struggle to Defend the West"
By: David E. Sanger
A MUST READ!!!!!!
Sanger's book documents how the the world, and the United States found itself facing a "Great Powers" conflict. The book documents how Putin came to power as well as his desire to restore Tsarist Russia (or his vision of the glory of Peter the Great), China's desire to surpass the United States in global dominance, and how the United States but complacent after the end of the Cold war, assuming that the world would follow the democratic global order.
Written with great detail (he did say the Cuban Missile Crisis happened 50 years instead of 60), Sanger keeps his reader engrossed like a fiction author.
If you want to understand the current world and the challenges the United States faces internationally, you have to read this book.
December 31, 2025
This book is seems to attempt to summarize all the geopolitical developments in the last 15 years among US/Russia/China.
I found this book too overwhelming focused on the Ukraine war and too focused on the military and cyber warfare build up. And too focused on recent events (2022-24).
This seems to be driven by the author's (who is a reporter) closeness to covering issues from this aspect. The source material seems to be primarily from "war hawks" in the Biden administration.
There are almost no insights into inscrutable China or Russia.
Trade, business, economics get only brief mentions here and there and no dissection.
For example, the trade balance is not mentioned even once. Tiktok affair barely gets a paragraph where it is just referenced, not analyzed.
The Taiwan issue on the other hand, gets examined in detail.
However, I do think that the trade balance and growing competitiveness of China's tech industry are equally fractious factors in US-China relations.
Overall, I think the author overemphasizes the national security concerns in US-China relations and underemphasizes the "insecurity" that US feels as China matches or exceeds it in many business and economic spheres.
If you have been following the news very closely, then pretty much nothing - either the events or the speculations around them - will be novel.
But it is a good, coherent summarization of the military (and cyber warfare) aspects of the "changing world order" narrative.
I found this book too overwhelming focused on the Ukraine war and too focused on the military and cyber warfare build up. And too focused on recent events (2022-24).
This seems to be driven by the author's (who is a reporter) closeness to covering issues from this aspect. The source material seems to be primarily from "war hawks" in the Biden administration.
There are almost no insights into inscrutable China or Russia.
Trade, business, economics get only brief mentions here and there and no dissection.
For example, the trade balance is not mentioned even once. Tiktok affair barely gets a paragraph where it is just referenced, not analyzed.
The Taiwan issue on the other hand, gets examined in detail.
However, I do think that the trade balance and growing competitiveness of China's tech industry are equally fractious factors in US-China relations.
Overall, I think the author overemphasizes the national security concerns in US-China relations and underemphasizes the "insecurity" that US feels as China matches or exceeds it in many business and economic spheres.
If you have been following the news very closely, then pretty much nothing - either the events or the speculations around them - will be novel.
But it is a good, coherent summarization of the military (and cyber warfare) aspects of the "changing world order" narrative.
June 25, 2024
A well written and mostly bi-partisan account of the last 4 years of world politics. Focusing on China, Russia, and the background of how we have arrived at a "new cold war," David Sanger's account is well written account even if it isn't a particularly revolutionary one. I learned a lot about the inner workings of the thought processes in Washington and how breaking down America's stance on foreign affairs is not as easy as looking at party lines. Sanger is mostly able to maintain an air of unbiased reporting. However, he used the phrase, "Biden being Biden" a few too many times, which when combined with his obvious distain for Trump and various subtextual clues unfortunately keeps this book from being a truly unbiased account. That being said, I do think the book to be a good account of the last years of global turmoil. I enjoyed the book as much as a 4 star, but I can't quite rate as such due to its slightly biased reporting. A solid 3.5 book.
June 8, 2024
The author’s narrative is unabashedly partisan and slanted, which destroys the credibility of the entire book.
May 9, 2024
STRESSFUL
June 18, 2024
An informative book that suffers from hindsight.
You almost think Sanger is writing the voice over for what he thinks should be a blooper reel of mistakes. This book engages in a long tradition of observers of the governing class, which is to criticize the psychic powers of the governing class itself. Of course they don't have these powers, so this is shooting fish in a barrel. One theory from the 90s was that reporters do this out of longstanding rivalries with the same individuals back at the elite colleges they attended.
But whatever the reason, the whole "the government sure didn't see THAT coming!" shtick is a gateway drug to conspiracy theories and doesn't really reflect the banality of the actual decision making, a lot of which depends on public opinion. Sanger is too smart not to know this, which means this is a gimmick.
If you remember the 90s when NATO expansion happened, do you remember much, or any, really, appetite to prepare for a future conflict with the Russians? Even if you had had a group of foreign policy elites pushing hard to finish the job or whatever was there any amount of political capital that would have gotten any traction there? It would have been dismissed as old Cold Warriors. As far as it goes with Kennan's warning, that's what it looked like. It looked like he was fighting the last war. And he probably was. What happened to our relationship with Russia was not a straight line from NATO expansion. If it hadn't been that, it would have been something else. Wounded national pride is a helluva drug.
In other words, even if you are right it may not matter. Even if you can show your work, it might not matter. This is hard for certain people to accept. The United States did not naively, stupidly, or conspiratorially bring China into the WTO. All of the risks were talked about at the time, but considering the results with South Korea, Japan, and Germany, it's not like we had never pulled off something like that. And what was the better plan, living with real political constraints of the 1990s and no hindsight? Again, no one had an appetite for a huge military buildup.
Likewise, Putin's breaking bad is not the United States's fault. We're a convenient scapegoat that people like Sanger, who, again, is too smart not to know better, can use to beat up on our government with without learning much from the process.
This is all to bury the important revelations in this book, such as finally some insight into the decision making process in the Biden administration about what weapons to supply to Ukraine, which seemed to be chaotic. It also makes some sense of Biden's China policy.
Sanger may also be too alarmist about "chips." If you talk to enough tech bros, you would think the world would stop without TSMC. But globalism is a double-edged sword. TSMC is just one part of the process, one that could just as easily be replicated elsewhere and is. As the book itself notes, the critical machinery comes from the Netherlands. The designs themselves from elsewhere, primarily the United States. Silicon is abundant (not mentioned in the book).
Over-learning the "lessons" of Covid seems to be something we'll be stepping on rakes with for years. What happened to the supply chain during Covid is nothing like what would happen during a war. A more instructive example might be the Israel/Gaza war and its effect on the Red Sea, but Ukraine works too.
Why? Because Covid was everywhere. These conflicts are much more local. Even if that one spot is where one critical step in chip manufacturing takes place, the adaptation is just different.
What they are really talking about is a decoupling, where the Western democracies more or less stop trading with China. And now here we are back at the beginning, talking about whether trade connections will normalize China. Maybe China didn't democratize like Eastern Europe, but it hasn't turned into a mafia state like Russia, either. And perhaps trade after all will keep it from doing something insane like invading Ukraine.
Then someone will have to write another foreign policy book dunking on the doubters. Time is a flat circle.
You almost think Sanger is writing the voice over for what he thinks should be a blooper reel of mistakes. This book engages in a long tradition of observers of the governing class, which is to criticize the psychic powers of the governing class itself. Of course they don't have these powers, so this is shooting fish in a barrel. One theory from the 90s was that reporters do this out of longstanding rivalries with the same individuals back at the elite colleges they attended.
But whatever the reason, the whole "the government sure didn't see THAT coming!" shtick is a gateway drug to conspiracy theories and doesn't really reflect the banality of the actual decision making, a lot of which depends on public opinion. Sanger is too smart not to know this, which means this is a gimmick.
If you remember the 90s when NATO expansion happened, do you remember much, or any, really, appetite to prepare for a future conflict with the Russians? Even if you had had a group of foreign policy elites pushing hard to finish the job or whatever was there any amount of political capital that would have gotten any traction there? It would have been dismissed as old Cold Warriors. As far as it goes with Kennan's warning, that's what it looked like. It looked like he was fighting the last war. And he probably was. What happened to our relationship with Russia was not a straight line from NATO expansion. If it hadn't been that, it would have been something else. Wounded national pride is a helluva drug.
In other words, even if you are right it may not matter. Even if you can show your work, it might not matter. This is hard for certain people to accept. The United States did not naively, stupidly, or conspiratorially bring China into the WTO. All of the risks were talked about at the time, but considering the results with South Korea, Japan, and Germany, it's not like we had never pulled off something like that. And what was the better plan, living with real political constraints of the 1990s and no hindsight? Again, no one had an appetite for a huge military buildup.
Likewise, Putin's breaking bad is not the United States's fault. We're a convenient scapegoat that people like Sanger, who, again, is too smart not to know better, can use to beat up on our government with without learning much from the process.
This is all to bury the important revelations in this book, such as finally some insight into the decision making process in the Biden administration about what weapons to supply to Ukraine, which seemed to be chaotic. It also makes some sense of Biden's China policy.
Sanger may also be too alarmist about "chips." If you talk to enough tech bros, you would think the world would stop without TSMC. But globalism is a double-edged sword. TSMC is just one part of the process, one that could just as easily be replicated elsewhere and is. As the book itself notes, the critical machinery comes from the Netherlands. The designs themselves from elsewhere, primarily the United States. Silicon is abundant (not mentioned in the book).
Over-learning the "lessons" of Covid seems to be something we'll be stepping on rakes with for years. What happened to the supply chain during Covid is nothing like what would happen during a war. A more instructive example might be the Israel/Gaza war and its effect on the Red Sea, but Ukraine works too.
Why? Because Covid was everywhere. These conflicts are much more local. Even if that one spot is where one critical step in chip manufacturing takes place, the adaptation is just different.
What they are really talking about is a decoupling, where the Western democracies more or less stop trading with China. And now here we are back at the beginning, talking about whether trade connections will normalize China. Maybe China didn't democratize like Eastern Europe, but it hasn't turned into a mafia state like Russia, either. And perhaps trade after all will keep it from doing something insane like invading Ukraine.
Then someone will have to write another foreign policy book dunking on the doubters. Time is a flat circle.
April 22, 2024
This is a very well-researched and readable account of our new foreign policy realities as of April in 2024. Due to the chaotic moment of history we're in, it will likely be dated in a year. Not the post Cold War world anyone hoped for or imagined and not a world an America post WOT disasters and internal political turmoil is all that prepared for. I'm not sure China is either with their demographic realities. We may be looking at the beginning of a rather brief era of Chinese dominance, with India being the stronger long-term player.
April 24, 2024
A really good snap shot of today's strategic security challenges. You may not agree with some of the author's interpretations or conclusions, but the depth of analysis is the strength of the book. Recommended for strategists and military planners.
July 6, 2024
When I picked up this book from the library. I read the back of the book and thought it looked really interesting but in the end I realized it was just the same stuff I knew about already.
April 18, 2024
New Cold Wars, by David E. Sanger; Crown: New York; $33.00
The old Cold War had a Rubicon that was not to be crossed. The Soviets and Americans came to fight proxy wars because nuclear war was too horrible to imagine. Yet now, David E. Sanger, the New York Times’ White House National Security correspondent, demonstrates how the new Cold Wars are even more complex.
Today, China is a mammoth economic power, whose access to computer chips, the source of modern power, is tremendous. They oppose American hegemonism because they see China’s moment in history as dawning in the shadow of the decline of the West. Likewise, Russia is a revenge seeking power, whose belief that their empire was done in at the end of the Soviet era by Western duplicity. Indeed, both of these adversaries of the West feel they are well poised to triumph at the expense of their political, but also economic and international adversaries.
We follow as Xi of China and Russia’s Putin seem to be aligned in an association of convenience, especially in regards to the Ukrainian War. Rogue nations such as Iran and North Korea play their role in seeking advantage from these powers quite consistently. Our former President Trump fostered at the same time a moving away from NATO and what had been one of America’s greatest assets, our international Alliances. All of this came to a head in the Ukraine War which after 2022 magnified the new threats to world peace in a gigantic way. What would the West do to naked aggression against a non-aligned democracy? We discover that the United States is, unlike in the past anti-Soviet conflict, beholden to Chinese supply chain expertise to keep our very economic spheres intact. While Russia still struggles to keep pace, China and its technological know how grows ever more substantial in comparison with the West. So too its military. Whereas before its military under Mao was sheer massive numbers, now its services have gone into modernization in enormous ways, including especially Artificial Intelligence developments. America under Biden has begun huge efforts at chip manufacturing, the better to withstand possible losses which denials by adversaries could effect.
America still retains its appeal for those nations not completely allied with us. Our adherence to the rule of law, fair trade, welcome immigration and open seas are hallmarks of years of history. These very aspects of our ‘soft power’ are being undercut by those seeking to once again close ourselves off by isolation and an unclear foreign policy.
Examples abound in Sanger’s excellent work of all the new and varied aspects of these new Cold Wars. Reading this will enlighten, and make clear so much which we read in the news today.
The old Cold War had a Rubicon that was not to be crossed. The Soviets and Americans came to fight proxy wars because nuclear war was too horrible to imagine. Yet now, David E. Sanger, the New York Times’ White House National Security correspondent, demonstrates how the new Cold Wars are even more complex.
Today, China is a mammoth economic power, whose access to computer chips, the source of modern power, is tremendous. They oppose American hegemonism because they see China’s moment in history as dawning in the shadow of the decline of the West. Likewise, Russia is a revenge seeking power, whose belief that their empire was done in at the end of the Soviet era by Western duplicity. Indeed, both of these adversaries of the West feel they are well poised to triumph at the expense of their political, but also economic and international adversaries.
We follow as Xi of China and Russia’s Putin seem to be aligned in an association of convenience, especially in regards to the Ukrainian War. Rogue nations such as Iran and North Korea play their role in seeking advantage from these powers quite consistently. Our former President Trump fostered at the same time a moving away from NATO and what had been one of America’s greatest assets, our international Alliances. All of this came to a head in the Ukraine War which after 2022 magnified the new threats to world peace in a gigantic way. What would the West do to naked aggression against a non-aligned democracy? We discover that the United States is, unlike in the past anti-Soviet conflict, beholden to Chinese supply chain expertise to keep our very economic spheres intact. While Russia still struggles to keep pace, China and its technological know how grows ever more substantial in comparison with the West. So too its military. Whereas before its military under Mao was sheer massive numbers, now its services have gone into modernization in enormous ways, including especially Artificial Intelligence developments. America under Biden has begun huge efforts at chip manufacturing, the better to withstand possible losses which denials by adversaries could effect.
America still retains its appeal for those nations not completely allied with us. Our adherence to the rule of law, fair trade, welcome immigration and open seas are hallmarks of years of history. These very aspects of our ‘soft power’ are being undercut by those seeking to once again close ourselves off by isolation and an unclear foreign policy.
Examples abound in Sanger’s excellent work of all the new and varied aspects of these new Cold Wars. Reading this will enlighten, and make clear so much which we read in the news today.
April 30, 2024
Are you looking to understand why the US relationships with China and Russia soured in the last 10 years? Do you want a long-form explanation of complex recent world events that is digestible to the lay person? If you answered "yes" to either of these questions, this book may be for you.
Heavy on explanations of events and lighter on "red vs. blue" politics, I learned a lot and think that others who have been paying attention to world events in the last year will also. Topics include: Spy balloons, the US domestic politics of supporting Ukraine, lessons learned by the Pentagon from the conflict in Ukraine, the tension between economic growth and national security in China, how powerful tech billionaires can shape world events in war, and much more.
I consumed the audio version of this book, which I purchased at retail. The narrator of the bulk of the text, narrated by Robertson Dean,is excellent. But the start and end are read by the author, whose voice isn't as engaging.
This was well worth picking up. It feels like a bit of a "Dad" book to me, but certainly it can be enjoyed by many others as well.
Heavy on explanations of events and lighter on "red vs. blue" politics, I learned a lot and think that others who have been paying attention to world events in the last year will also. Topics include: Spy balloons, the US domestic politics of supporting Ukraine, lessons learned by the Pentagon from the conflict in Ukraine, the tension between economic growth and national security in China, how powerful tech billionaires can shape world events in war, and much more.
I consumed the audio version of this book, which I purchased at retail. The narrator of the bulk of the text, narrated by Robertson Dean,is excellent. But the start and end are read by the author, whose voice isn't as engaging.
This was well worth picking up. It feels like a bit of a "Dad" book to me, but certainly it can be enjoyed by many others as well.
May 22, 2024
It Is Happening
Very good.
Mostly focused on Russia/ Ukraine and Trump, but had some good realizations on China as well.
Definitely a must read to understand the current landscape of foreign policy and global threats.
I got a lot out of it, and found it a great companion book to some of the books I enjoyed, below.
Companion Reads
Books I recommend reading along with this book, to get a full picture
Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology
Silent Invasion: China's Influence In Australia
Claws of the Panda: Beijing's Campaign of Influence and Intimidation in Canada
Wilful Blindness: How a Criminal Network of Narcos, Tycoons and CCP Agents Infiltrated the West
The Great U.S.-China Tech War
The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping's China
4.7/5
Very good.
Mostly focused on Russia/ Ukraine and Trump, but had some good realizations on China as well.
Definitely a must read to understand the current landscape of foreign policy and global threats.
I got a lot out of it, and found it a great companion book to some of the books I enjoyed, below.
Companion Reads
Books I recommend reading along with this book, to get a full picture
Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology
Silent Invasion: China's Influence In Australia
Claws of the Panda: Beijing's Campaign of Influence and Intimidation in Canada
Wilful Blindness: How a Criminal Network of Narcos, Tycoons and CCP Agents Infiltrated the West
The Great U.S.-China Tech War
The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping's China
4.7/5
March 30, 2025
New Cold Wars delivers an engaging and insightful primer on recent U.S. foreign policy, examining the challenges America faces in an increasingly multipolar world. Despite its 500-page length, the book never feels dense—a testament to David Sanger’s compelling narrative, which keeps the pages flying by.
That said, the analysis reflects a distinctly U.S.-centric viewpoint, unsurprising given Sanger’s reliance on current and former U.S. officials as primary sources. A deeper exploration of Chinese and Russian perspectives would have added nuance to the geopolitical tensions at the heart of the book. Nonetheless, New Cold Wars remains a fascinating and highly readable account of today’s most pressing international struggles.
Rounded down from 3.5/5
That said, the analysis reflects a distinctly U.S.-centric viewpoint, unsurprising given Sanger’s reliance on current and former U.S. officials as primary sources. A deeper exploration of Chinese and Russian perspectives would have added nuance to the geopolitical tensions at the heart of the book. Nonetheless, New Cold Wars remains a fascinating and highly readable account of today’s most pressing international struggles.
Rounded down from 3.5/5
August 15, 2024
"New Cold Wars" by Senger is an insightful exploration of the post-Cold War era, written by a historian with a deep understanding of geopolitical dynamics. Sanger’s extensive background as a New York Times White House correspondent and NYT foreign policy correspondent makes him uniquely qualified to tackle this complex subject.
The book meticulously examines the differences between the Cold War and our current global tensions. Sanger effectively argues that our post-Cold War arrogance and naivety led us to believe that we had 'won' and that the rest of the world would simply follow suit. This assumption, as Senger demonstrates, was profoundly misguided.
Through detailed analysis and compelling narratives, Sanger illuminates the shifting power structures and emerging conflicts that characterize the new era. "New Cold Wars" is a crucial read for anyone looking to comprehend the evolving landscape of global politics and the lessons we must learn from our past missteps.
The book meticulously examines the differences between the Cold War and our current global tensions. Sanger effectively argues that our post-Cold War arrogance and naivety led us to believe that we had 'won' and that the rest of the world would simply follow suit. This assumption, as Senger demonstrates, was profoundly misguided.
Through detailed analysis and compelling narratives, Sanger illuminates the shifting power structures and emerging conflicts that characterize the new era. "New Cold Wars" is a crucial read for anyone looking to comprehend the evolving landscape of global politics and the lessons we must learn from our past missteps.
October 21, 2024
A captivating analysis of the challenges the United States will likely face in the near future, due to increased competition from China and Russia.
July 31, 2024
A good commentary on current events
August 6, 2024
Some alarmist tones trail throughout this text but with that said there are some very strong warnings that have already come to life. We need to wake up and as a country get our foreign affairs in order before it might be too late.
June 14, 2024
Mostly a recap of the news. I just don’t learn anything new.
March 21, 2025
A decent book that is likely to be of value to historians of the future looking for materials written at our time. There are, however, a number of problems.
Sanger's explanations of certain technical terms of jarringly clumsy. Heisenberg's inequality is not a "paradox" at all, but is something that one can derive from the foundations of quantum mechanics and is one of the most important predictions of that branch of physics. The Anglo-French Storm Shadow missile is not a "rough equivalent" of the U.S. Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS). The former is an air-launched ground-attack cruise missile whereas the latter is a ballistic missile. Just because they could both be used against ground targets does not mean they are the same thing. Are anti-ship missiles and torpedoes the same thing? This is worse than some journalists calling the German-Swedish Taurus missile as a "version" of the Storm Shadow. It belongs in the same category of air-launched cruise missiles, but does not have the same design.
On multiple occasions, Sanger appears to be overly sympathetic towards the enemy out of an excessive concern for neutrality. His presentation is otherwise fairly balanced and contextual as it is. He also takes the concerns of the so-called "Global South" way too seriously. Given that resources are scarce, foreign policy makers must prioritize; in other words, some countries or regions are more important than others. The world is not flat. But cultural proximity is also important. It is therefore no surprise that Americans are more concerned about events in Europe than in many other parts of the world. Can Africans be faulted for being more worried about Africa than, say, Latin America? Countries normally pursue their own self-interest. But some cannot help but complain when America does it. Even voters who (strongly) disapprove of Donald Trump want their politicians to prioritize them and their country, not carrying water for foreigners who do not share their values and might even look down on them. On the bright side, Sanger is clear-headed enough to realize that these countries are more than happy to play the great powers against each other for their own benefit. This brings into question whether or not American foreign aid actually advances America's national interest or is merely feeding those with anti-American views out of a misguided sense of generosity. For example, are the countries asking for foreign funds to mitigate the effects of climate change actually worried about climate change or are they trying to milk money from wealthy nations?
Sanger opines that the increasingly hostile attitude Americans have towards China is "unchecked xenophobia." He should ask what the Japanese or the Vietnamese think of China. If anything, Americans are pretty moderate, and theirs is the political equivalent of an immune response towards something they know is bad for them, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Furthermore, Sanger should know that under the dictatorship of Xi Jinping, China is mixing ethnonationalism with socialism (with Chinese characteristics). Perhaps this is the next iteration of national socialism?
Sanger also gives an overdue amount of space to the arguments of the far left, who are unapologetically anti-American, anti-Western, and anti-capitalist in outlook. They may not express themselves in such terms, at least not in public or when running for elections, but that is exactly what they are. Anyone familiar with a college campus knows about them. They are actually small in number, and, despite their outspokenness, do not capture the imagination of the general public, who tend to be more centrist in political views, or perhaps mildly conservative, given the results of recent elections. This is one of the factors tarnishing the reputation of higher education in recent years. Why should taxpayers finance those who hate them and might launch a revolution against them? But that is a matter of domestic policy.
Sanger's explanations of certain technical terms of jarringly clumsy. Heisenberg's inequality is not a "paradox" at all, but is something that one can derive from the foundations of quantum mechanics and is one of the most important predictions of that branch of physics. The Anglo-French Storm Shadow missile is not a "rough equivalent" of the U.S. Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS). The former is an air-launched ground-attack cruise missile whereas the latter is a ballistic missile. Just because they could both be used against ground targets does not mean they are the same thing. Are anti-ship missiles and torpedoes the same thing? This is worse than some journalists calling the German-Swedish Taurus missile as a "version" of the Storm Shadow. It belongs in the same category of air-launched cruise missiles, but does not have the same design.
On multiple occasions, Sanger appears to be overly sympathetic towards the enemy out of an excessive concern for neutrality. His presentation is otherwise fairly balanced and contextual as it is. He also takes the concerns of the so-called "Global South" way too seriously. Given that resources are scarce, foreign policy makers must prioritize; in other words, some countries or regions are more important than others. The world is not flat. But cultural proximity is also important. It is therefore no surprise that Americans are more concerned about events in Europe than in many other parts of the world. Can Africans be faulted for being more worried about Africa than, say, Latin America? Countries normally pursue their own self-interest. But some cannot help but complain when America does it. Even voters who (strongly) disapprove of Donald Trump want their politicians to prioritize them and their country, not carrying water for foreigners who do not share their values and might even look down on them. On the bright side, Sanger is clear-headed enough to realize that these countries are more than happy to play the great powers against each other for their own benefit. This brings into question whether or not American foreign aid actually advances America's national interest or is merely feeding those with anti-American views out of a misguided sense of generosity. For example, are the countries asking for foreign funds to mitigate the effects of climate change actually worried about climate change or are they trying to milk money from wealthy nations?
Sanger opines that the increasingly hostile attitude Americans have towards China is "unchecked xenophobia." He should ask what the Japanese or the Vietnamese think of China. If anything, Americans are pretty moderate, and theirs is the political equivalent of an immune response towards something they know is bad for them, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Furthermore, Sanger should know that under the dictatorship of Xi Jinping, China is mixing ethnonationalism with socialism (with Chinese characteristics). Perhaps this is the next iteration of national socialism?
Sanger also gives an overdue amount of space to the arguments of the far left, who are unapologetically anti-American, anti-Western, and anti-capitalist in outlook. They may not express themselves in such terms, at least not in public or when running for elections, but that is exactly what they are. Anyone familiar with a college campus knows about them. They are actually small in number, and, despite their outspokenness, do not capture the imagination of the general public, who tend to be more centrist in political views, or perhaps mildly conservative, given the results of recent elections. This is one of the factors tarnishing the reputation of higher education in recent years. Why should taxpayers finance those who hate them and might launch a revolution against them? But that is a matter of domestic policy.
August 25, 2024
Lengthy look at America’s latest international political crossroads: the tug between superpowers China and Russia on the brink of teaming up. Sanger recounts the Ukraine invasion, Taiwanese/Chinese conflicts, the Israeli/Hamas conflict and America’s role. I learned a lot more about the intricate balance bw Xi, Putin and whichever sitting president (most recently Biden) and how we are interdependent but also not trusting of each other. China is focused on establishing itself as the world’s technology powerhouse, Russia wants to the gang back together (aka USSR). The New Cold Wars hinges on nuclear weapons/military might, economic strength and technological development particularly around AI. Parts of this I found interesting, a lot of it was a retelling of historical events I was already aware. Helps to articulate exactly why China is on the power rise (however they are hobbled by tech innovation and birth rates). Great read if you are a historian or naturally intrigued by current political events - and while political issues absolutely translate into everyday citizen issues - I found this a bit of a slog. Reco audiobooking this one.
Want to read
May 27, 2024Review to read is NY Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/13/bo...
Excerpt:
"Take the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. “Trench warfare!” Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said to Sanger about six months into the war. “For a while we thought this would be a cyber war. Then we thought it was looking like an old-fashioned, World War II tank war. And then, there are days when I thought they are fighting [expletive] World War I.” As Sanger writes: “Milley had put his finger on one of the most unsettling features of the new geopolitical era: It is part 1914, part 1941 and part 2022. All at once.”
High-priority TBR for me.
Excerpt:
"Take the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. “Trench warfare!” Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said to Sanger about six months into the war. “For a while we thought this would be a cyber war. Then we thought it was looking like an old-fashioned, World War II tank war. And then, there are days when I thought they are fighting [expletive] World War I.” As Sanger writes: “Milley had put his finger on one of the most unsettling features of the new geopolitical era: It is part 1914, part 1941 and part 2022. All at once.”
High-priority TBR for me.
April 29, 2025
Great book to help put everything we are seeing today into perspective. Sanger clearly has his opinions, but is humble enough to not throw out certainties in a clearly tumultuous time. Some personal questions I will be looking for during the next few years: How attractive is the West to the average Russian or Chinese person today? Do we see something similar to Soviet Bloc deterioration from the people, or is China's wealth going to make this time different? Does the U.S. sustain nationally funded defense industries in Tech, like they have for 80 years? Who plays the first A.I. assisted "attack"?
July 10, 2024
Wow…this was exceptional. The level of access Sanger has and detail he provides truly blew me away. This is not a guy jotting down some theories on what’s happening from his basement — his sources are as senior in government as one could hope for.
I’m not going to lie, the book was dense. It took me a while to finish and I could not get through large portions at a time. I did skim a few sections around the current conflict in Eastern Europe. That said, I’m glad I stuck with it. I’m not sure there is a better book out there for understanding the current international relations challenges faced by the US and how they all weave together. If this is a topic you’re interested in, I highly recommend reading it.
I’m not going to lie, the book was dense. It took me a while to finish and I could not get through large portions at a time. I did skim a few sections around the current conflict in Eastern Europe. That said, I’m glad I stuck with it. I’m not sure there is a better book out there for understanding the current international relations challenges faced by the US and how they all weave together. If this is a topic you’re interested in, I highly recommend reading it.
June 11, 2024
Perfect. I know everything about the new cold wars now.
August 21, 2024
A Democrats view of recent events. A lot of stuff I agree with . Others I don't. He is clearly friends with the Democrats he talks about so don't expect objectivity. It is worth reading.
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