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The Fate of the World: An urgent polemic about the history and politics of climate change
What past climate change can tell us about our a warning and a rallying-cry
Why winding the clock back 50 million years is a bad idea
The Fate of the World is a 4.6 billion-year history of the earth, which shows the deep roots of our current climate crisis. It puts contemporary global heating in the context of millennia of global history to seek out what past climate change can tell us about our future climate. It shows how what’s happening to our climate now compares with what happened in the geological past.
McGuire reveals that our climate already matches that of the last interglacial period – the Eemian – when sea levels were 6 to 9m higher, and is on track to mimic the Pliocene climate as soon as the 2030s, and the early Eocene hothouse later this century. We are rapidly rewinding the climate back 50 million years in a couple of centuries – and without urgent preparation, our civilization is very poorly placed to survive.
Nonetheless, this is a hopeful book. The geological record informs us that the future will be forbidding, but every ton of carbon we can stop being emitted and every fraction of a degree temperature rise we can prevent, will contribute towards making it less so.
If you read just one book on the climate crisis, make it this one.
Why winding the clock back 50 million years is a bad idea
The Fate of the World is a 4.6 billion-year history of the earth, which shows the deep roots of our current climate crisis. It puts contemporary global heating in the context of millennia of global history to seek out what past climate change can tell us about our future climate. It shows how what’s happening to our climate now compares with what happened in the geological past.
McGuire reveals that our climate already matches that of the last interglacial period – the Eemian – when sea levels were 6 to 9m higher, and is on track to mimic the Pliocene climate as soon as the 2030s, and the early Eocene hothouse later this century. We are rapidly rewinding the climate back 50 million years in a couple of centuries – and without urgent preparation, our civilization is very poorly placed to survive.
Nonetheless, this is a hopeful book. The geological record informs us that the future will be forbidding, but every ton of carbon we can stop being emitted and every fraction of a degree temperature rise we can prevent, will contribute towards making it less so.
If you read just one book on the climate crisis, make it this one.
- GenresClimate ChangeScience
286 pages, Kindle Edition
Published May 21, 2026
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Displaying 1 - 3 of 3 reviews
May 21, 2026
The science behind climate change has been well covered, including in Bill McGuire's own Hothouse Earth, but I've not before seen a book that doesn't just use model predictions, but looks back at what we know about the state of the climate in different periods of the past, and what caused it, to help get a feel for the reality of the impact likely occur from various levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
McGuire starts with an exploration of solar variation - something that climate change deniers frequently bring up as an alternative explanation for global warming - pointing out that it definitely has an effect, but that's irrelevant to the clear and massive impact of our greenhouse gas emissions. He then takes us through various aspects of past climate variation, from ice ages to huge sea level rises, with a clear warning on the ease with which the climate can undergo relatively sudden changes when a tipping point is reached.
Along the way, McGuire is dismissive of attempts to mitigate climate change - while I agree that their impact is insufficient to allow us to carry on the way we are, it surely is still a good idea, for example, to go ahead with direct air capture, planting trees and so on. But fundamentally he emphasises our biggest hope is to cut back on fossil fuel use as fast as possible - and at the moment our governments simply don't make that easy enough. (A shame also he doesn't mention that biofuels are even worse than fossil fuels.)
I only have two small issues with the book. One's tiny, but irritating: McGuire refers to 'global heating' rather than 'global warming' - they both mean the same thing, and it feels like posturing to change the words, so it grates every time. It's also the case that there's rather too much detail on the historical events. At times I did skip read a few pages, because I didn't need all that detail on specific events and exactly what happened. The big picture is a brilliant idea that really captured my imagination, but it is possible to lose your audience with too much detail.
The front cover has a quote from Chris Packham that says 'Read it and weep, or read it and win.' Unfortunately, Chris seems not to have read the conclusion. I think a more realistic tag line would be 'Read it and despair, or read it and weep.' In the end, McGuire presents us with three possible outcomes from where we are now. That we don't cut back enough and enter a dire future where life is pretty much impossible to continue within a couple of hundred years, that we cut back fast enough that the impact will only be really bad, or that society collapses and as a result we cut back and things are only really bad. There is no 'win' here.
This is probably one of the most depressing books I've ever read - McGuire convinces me that things are going to be far worse for future generations than most of us imagine. I only hope that at least his portrayal will lead to the second option where we cut back sufficiently that things will only be really bad - but with experience of politics, I somehow doubt it. Even so, the best climate book I've read in ages.
McGuire starts with an exploration of solar variation - something that climate change deniers frequently bring up as an alternative explanation for global warming - pointing out that it definitely has an effect, but that's irrelevant to the clear and massive impact of our greenhouse gas emissions. He then takes us through various aspects of past climate variation, from ice ages to huge sea level rises, with a clear warning on the ease with which the climate can undergo relatively sudden changes when a tipping point is reached.
Along the way, McGuire is dismissive of attempts to mitigate climate change - while I agree that their impact is insufficient to allow us to carry on the way we are, it surely is still a good idea, for example, to go ahead with direct air capture, planting trees and so on. But fundamentally he emphasises our biggest hope is to cut back on fossil fuel use as fast as possible - and at the moment our governments simply don't make that easy enough. (A shame also he doesn't mention that biofuels are even worse than fossil fuels.)
I only have two small issues with the book. One's tiny, but irritating: McGuire refers to 'global heating' rather than 'global warming' - they both mean the same thing, and it feels like posturing to change the words, so it grates every time. It's also the case that there's rather too much detail on the historical events. At times I did skip read a few pages, because I didn't need all that detail on specific events and exactly what happened. The big picture is a brilliant idea that really captured my imagination, but it is possible to lose your audience with too much detail.
The front cover has a quote from Chris Packham that says 'Read it and weep, or read it and win.' Unfortunately, Chris seems not to have read the conclusion. I think a more realistic tag line would be 'Read it and despair, or read it and weep.' In the end, McGuire presents us with three possible outcomes from where we are now. That we don't cut back enough and enter a dire future where life is pretty much impossible to continue within a couple of hundred years, that we cut back fast enough that the impact will only be really bad, or that society collapses and as a result we cut back and things are only really bad. There is no 'win' here.
This is probably one of the most depressing books I've ever read - McGuire convinces me that things are going to be far worse for future generations than most of us imagine. I only hope that at least his portrayal will lead to the second option where we cut back sufficiently that things will only be really bad - but with experience of politics, I somehow doubt it. Even so, the best climate book I've read in ages.
Review of advance copy received from Publisher
Review of ‘The Fate of the World: A History and Future of the Climate Crisis’ by Prof Bill McGuire
‘Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,
To the last syllable of recorded time;
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
The way to dusty death.’
Shakespeare’s words, from over 400 years ago, seem shockingly relevant today as we face an existential climate crisis, but we witness no real decisive climate action. We have been brought to this moment- we are the ‘lighted fools’- and appear to have learned nothing from the lessons from our ‘recorded time’.
McGuire’s ‘The Fate of the World’ offers a comprehensive and thorough lesson into our planet’s deep geological time and warns that our climate conditions are close to matching those of the last interglacial period- the Eemian- and could even match the Pliocene conditions, last seen on this planet over 2.5 million years ago. A prehistoric future which needs to be avoided.
Make no mistake- this is a challenging, difficult, and relentless read. On the other hand, ‘The Fate of the World’ should be a necessary and compulsory read, if we are to change the looming future. It is dedicated ‘To all who come after us’,and they will inherit our Earth. What that world looks like then will depend on our actions now. ‘Never have the actions of one generation meant so much for those that follow.’
McGuire urges us to be good ancestors and shake off the short-term shackles which are keeping us prisoner to the fossil-fuel status quo. ‘Yet future generations have no say in what actions we take today, nor do those making decisions in the first quarter of the twenty-first century have to live with the worst of their consequences.’
McGuire does not shy away from giving blunt scientific assessments and his expert climate views are important if we are going to change our current trajectory of economic and capitalist ‘business as usual’,while the planet burns. Or as McGuire comments, ‘It is an insane situation, and it can’t go on.’
McGuire’s ‘history book about the future’ then, details the scientific arguments about the impact on our world of our Sun, how what we see as a ‘constant’ has been anything but in its life cycle, and still has a future of its own to complete. He discusses the varying levels of carbon in the atmosphere over the life of the planet; how the planet has witnessed deep freezes and incredible oceans; how the Earth remains restless, while still giving humans the ‘Goldilocks’ conditions we need to survive, by its place in the solar system; and the real risks involved by a weakened AMOC. ‘It is no exaggeration to say that what happens to the AMOC will play a huge role in determining the course of future climate breakdown.’
McGuire notes and acknowledges that species rise and fall on our planet is inevitable and that humanity’s ego and arrogance is a dangerous combination. ‘Something like three-quarters of a billion species of animals, plants and fungi are thought to have existed since life first emerged on our planet, of which 99.9 per cent are now extinct.’
‘There can be no doubt that our beloved planet, as we have come to know it, is in deep, deep trouble.’
Extreme weather events around the globe are certainly causing people to realise that something is out of kilter; that our world today is different from that of 50 or 100 years ago. Droughts, floodings, wildfires, extreme heat and sea-level rise are all adding up to a world on the move- desperate to escape climate conditions in their own environment. Climate migration will become a more familiar term in the coming decades. ‘2024 was not only the hottest year on record but probably since the last interglacial period 125,000 years ago. And it won’t stop there. The truth is that, as global heating continues to flourish, 2024 will eventually prove to be one of the coldest years of the twenty-first century.’
McGuire quotes a 2020 report by the Geological Society of London, which stated, ‘The current speed of human-induced CO₂ change and warming is nearly without precedent in the entire geological record.’ An unbelievable indictment of humans as ‘conscious accomplices on the journey towards our own demise.’ McGuire debunks the climate-denying tropes that ‘the Earth has been hotter before’ or that ‘Levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have been higher in the past’, by focusing on the crux of the climate issue- often deliberately missed by deniers- that the rate of change offers humanity little chance of adapting to a new world. ‘And this is the crux of the climate emergency facing us today- not the absolute temperature, nor the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, but the staggering and unprecedented speed with which they are rising.’
The fires of Isengard
To enter into Tolkien’s world, the fossil-fuel fires of Isengard have been burning for far too long. The character of Merry warns, ‘The fires of Isengard will spread. And the woods of Tuckborough and Buckland will burn. And…and all that was once green and good in this world will be gone. There won’t be a Shire.’
McGuire does not go so far as to fall into the ‘doomist paralysis’ narrative. ‘Do we just give in? Absolutely not. The future unravelling of society will be brutal, but it doesn’t negate the need to fight today to keep every tonne of fossil carbon out of the atmosphere.’
He repeatedly urges that drastic global emission cuts can still make a difference to aid with climate resilience. ‘I haven’t completely lost hope, and neither should you. I did not write this book to dismay or dishearten, to foster panic or to feed inertia but to galvanise action to do what needs to be done: to cut emissions as fast as possible; to prepare for a new and much harsher world.’
He repeats this message throughout ‘The Fate of the World’, with his typical pragmatism. ‘All is not lost, however. If we take the urgent action required in the next few decades to rapidly row back on emissions, it may yet be possible to dodge PETM or early Eocene conditions.’
He acknowledges that the will to act quickly, sadly still lies in the hands of politicians and world leaders and that collective action is still sorely missing. ‘We have the means within our grasp- even at this late stage- to head off Armageddon. But we lack the collective will to do what needs to be done.’
‘No fate but what we make’
The map of our world has been redrawn in the past and will be redrawn again in the future. With a best estimate for the global average temperature rise of 2.7℃ by 2100, based on current policies and actions, it feels that our fate has already been sealed.
As McGuire points out, we can no longer hide behind the shield of scientific ignorance- climate scientists have been warning us for decades of the likely track ahead if we continue to allow carbon emissions to rise unchecked. By now we need to ask, why are we doing this on purpose to ourselves and the planet?
‘We can no longer pretend to be sleepwalking into climate catastrophe. We are doing it consciously, with our eyes wide open, and hang the consequences.’
But.
Our future- our fate- is not yet carved in stone.
We can still be a great people, if we wish to be. Our path has been lighted from the past and we now have the light to show the way to climate justice and climate resilience for all.
We all now get to write ‘The Fate of the World’ ourselves. We carry the fate of us all.
‘Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,
To the last syllable of recorded time;
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
The way to dusty death.’
Shakespeare’s words, from over 400 years ago, seem shockingly relevant today as we face an existential climate crisis, but we witness no real decisive climate action. We have been brought to this moment- we are the ‘lighted fools’- and appear to have learned nothing from the lessons from our ‘recorded time’.
McGuire’s ‘The Fate of the World’ offers a comprehensive and thorough lesson into our planet’s deep geological time and warns that our climate conditions are close to matching those of the last interglacial period- the Eemian- and could even match the Pliocene conditions, last seen on this planet over 2.5 million years ago. A prehistoric future which needs to be avoided.
Make no mistake- this is a challenging, difficult, and relentless read. On the other hand, ‘The Fate of the World’ should be a necessary and compulsory read, if we are to change the looming future. It is dedicated ‘To all who come after us’,and they will inherit our Earth. What that world looks like then will depend on our actions now. ‘Never have the actions of one generation meant so much for those that follow.’
McGuire urges us to be good ancestors and shake off the short-term shackles which are keeping us prisoner to the fossil-fuel status quo. ‘Yet future generations have no say in what actions we take today, nor do those making decisions in the first quarter of the twenty-first century have to live with the worst of their consequences.’
McGuire does not shy away from giving blunt scientific assessments and his expert climate views are important if we are going to change our current trajectory of economic and capitalist ‘business as usual’,while the planet burns. Or as McGuire comments, ‘It is an insane situation, and it can’t go on.’
McGuire’s ‘history book about the future’ then, details the scientific arguments about the impact on our world of our Sun, how what we see as a ‘constant’ has been anything but in its life cycle, and still has a future of its own to complete. He discusses the varying levels of carbon in the atmosphere over the life of the planet; how the planet has witnessed deep freezes and incredible oceans; how the Earth remains restless, while still giving humans the ‘Goldilocks’ conditions we need to survive, by its place in the solar system; and the real risks involved by a weakened AMOC. ‘It is no exaggeration to say that what happens to the AMOC will play a huge role in determining the course of future climate breakdown.’
McGuire notes and acknowledges that species rise and fall on our planet is inevitable and that humanity’s ego and arrogance is a dangerous combination. ‘Something like three-quarters of a billion species of animals, plants and fungi are thought to have existed since life first emerged on our planet, of which 99.9 per cent are now extinct.’
‘There can be no doubt that our beloved planet, as we have come to know it, is in deep, deep trouble.’
Extreme weather events around the globe are certainly causing people to realise that something is out of kilter; that our world today is different from that of 50 or 100 years ago. Droughts, floodings, wildfires, extreme heat and sea-level rise are all adding up to a world on the move- desperate to escape climate conditions in their own environment. Climate migration will become a more familiar term in the coming decades. ‘2024 was not only the hottest year on record but probably since the last interglacial period 125,000 years ago. And it won’t stop there. The truth is that, as global heating continues to flourish, 2024 will eventually prove to be one of the coldest years of the twenty-first century.’
McGuire quotes a 2020 report by the Geological Society of London, which stated, ‘The current speed of human-induced CO₂ change and warming is nearly without precedent in the entire geological record.’ An unbelievable indictment of humans as ‘conscious accomplices on the journey towards our own demise.’ McGuire debunks the climate-denying tropes that ‘the Earth has been hotter before’ or that ‘Levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have been higher in the past’, by focusing on the crux of the climate issue- often deliberately missed by deniers- that the rate of change offers humanity little chance of adapting to a new world. ‘And this is the crux of the climate emergency facing us today- not the absolute temperature, nor the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, but the staggering and unprecedented speed with which they are rising.’
The fires of Isengard
To enter into Tolkien’s world, the fossil-fuel fires of Isengard have been burning for far too long. The character of Merry warns, ‘The fires of Isengard will spread. And the woods of Tuckborough and Buckland will burn. And…and all that was once green and good in this world will be gone. There won’t be a Shire.’
McGuire does not go so far as to fall into the ‘doomist paralysis’ narrative. ‘Do we just give in? Absolutely not. The future unravelling of society will be brutal, but it doesn’t negate the need to fight today to keep every tonne of fossil carbon out of the atmosphere.’
He repeatedly urges that drastic global emission cuts can still make a difference to aid with climate resilience. ‘I haven’t completely lost hope, and neither should you. I did not write this book to dismay or dishearten, to foster panic or to feed inertia but to galvanise action to do what needs to be done: to cut emissions as fast as possible; to prepare for a new and much harsher world.’
He repeats this message throughout ‘The Fate of the World’, with his typical pragmatism. ‘All is not lost, however. If we take the urgent action required in the next few decades to rapidly row back on emissions, it may yet be possible to dodge PETM or early Eocene conditions.’
He acknowledges that the will to act quickly, sadly still lies in the hands of politicians and world leaders and that collective action is still sorely missing. ‘We have the means within our grasp- even at this late stage- to head off Armageddon. But we lack the collective will to do what needs to be done.’
‘No fate but what we make’
The map of our world has been redrawn in the past and will be redrawn again in the future. With a best estimate for the global average temperature rise of 2.7℃ by 2100, based on current policies and actions, it feels that our fate has already been sealed.
As McGuire points out, we can no longer hide behind the shield of scientific ignorance- climate scientists have been warning us for decades of the likely track ahead if we continue to allow carbon emissions to rise unchecked. By now we need to ask, why are we doing this on purpose to ourselves and the planet?
‘We can no longer pretend to be sleepwalking into climate catastrophe. We are doing it consciously, with our eyes wide open, and hang the consequences.’
But.
Our future- our fate- is not yet carved in stone.
We can still be a great people, if we wish to be. Our path has been lighted from the past and we now have the light to show the way to climate justice and climate resilience for all.
We all now get to write ‘The Fate of the World’ ourselves. We carry the fate of us all.
June 2, 2026
Rooted in science, facts and experience, this is the first book on climate change I've read that doesn't sugarcoat our future. The writing is engaging, empathetic and chilling, but never nihilistic. A history lesson, but one that ties the past (and in this case the distant past) to today and tomorrow. "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."
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