Predictable Winners: A Handbook for Developing, Forecasting, and Launching New Products and Services

by Stuart E. Jackson, Ilya Trakhtenberg, Simon Barber (Narrator)

New product launches are risky. But disciplined innovation practices lead to success rates well above industry benchmarks. Predictable Winners is a comprehensive handbook of best practices for improving the odds of success at every step of the innovation journey - from concept development through commercial launch and beyond. Product leaders, innovation teams, and senior executives will find practical insights to reduce product risk and improve R&D effectiveness and ROI, while delighting customers with a pipeline of compelling new products and services.

The authors' systematic approach is covered step-by-step in twenty-five chapters on topics like assembling the right team, identifying innovation opportunities, conducting a disciplined, data-driven assessment of a new product's revenue potential, making wise investment decisions, and more. Predictable Winners also details how to use quantitative tools to disaggregate and reduce the distinct risks around competing product concepts, customer segments, channels, pricing, and launch planning. Finally, because not all breakthrough innovation comes from internal teams, the authors also explain advanced strategies for improving the odds of balancing organic innovation with external acquisitions or licensing.

The book is published by Stanford Business Books, an imprint of Stanford University Press. The audiobook is published by University Press Audiobooks.

Audible Audio

Published October 30, 2025

About the author

Stuart Jackson is Vice Chair of L.E.K. Consulting, where he focuses on advising clients on management trends and governance issues affecting boards of directors and c-suite leadership teams. Stuart previously served for nine years as L.E.K.’s Global Managing Partner, and has also served as Americas Region Head, Chicago office head, and the firm’s Board of Directors.

In his leadership capacity at L.E.K., Stuart has worked with hundreds of clients in industries such as medtech, manufacturing and consumer products. These clients have enjoyed higher growth, increased their profit margins in existing businesses, added scores of new services and products, and completed more than 100 merger and acquisition transactions — all based in part on Stuart’s advice and concepts. Stuart is a past recipient of Consulting Magazine’s Top 25 Consultants award. He is the author of the highly acclaimed book “Where Value Hides: A New Way to Uncover Profitable Growth for Your Business” and dozens of articles published in journals such as the Wall Street Journal, the Journal of Business Strategy and Harvard Business Review.

Prior to joining L.E.K., Stuart was a manufacturing engineer with British Aerospace. He has a degree in engineering from Cambridge University and won a NATO Fellowship to INSEAD, where he received an MBA with distinction. Stuart currently serves on the board of Quarri Technologies.

Reviews

[Andrew Balyk · Rating 4 out of 5]

Книга про те, як запускати продукти в складних корпоративних середовищах. З одного боку, книга академічна, з посиланнями на моделі та дослідження. З іншого — вона наповнена багатьма класними прикладами і ще й не з "айтішки".

Автори дуже детально розкладають, як оцінювати і зменшувати ризики — від ідеї до вибору ринку і каналу продажів. Приклади Ozempic і Keytruda показують, як стратегічна ясність веде до прориву, тоді як Walmart Health чи Apple Newton нагадують, що навіть гіганти можуть помилятися.

[Joseph Pinto · Rating 5 out of 5]

Interesting read; it sets up a lot of useful frameworks for thinking about product launches, pulls a lot of interesting examples to illustrate its point, and ultimately leaves me feeling like I've learned a bit on how to think about business