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An Improbable Hypothesis
An Improbable Hypothesis, the debut novel from British–Australian author Dr Ellery Shaw, is a quirky blend of science, mystery, history, and humour, perfect for readers who have ever wondered whether luck is more than coincidence.
In a laboratory in London, PhD student Emily is halfway to becoming a scientist when an accusation of fraud threatens to shatter all she has worked for. Abandoned by those she trusted, she turns to her staunchly unscientific flatmate, Penny, and with just a cheap bottle of wine, a handful of coins, and a reckless indifference to plausibility, they discover why her experiments are behaving so … improbably.
What they uncover draws them deep into Emily’s DNA, through the dusty aisles of the university library, and eventually to the Arctic Circle, where they unearth a family secret hidden since the end of the Second World War – a story of lost love, tragedy, and a flaw in the fabric of chance itself.
But someone else knows what they’ve found. And some secrets are worth killing for.
An Improbable Hypothesis is a smart, inventive story about academia’s darker corners, the bonds of love and friendship, and how things don’t always work out as you’d expect.
“An utterly original delight.”
“A brilliantly off-beat blend of science, secrets, and sheer narrative charm.”
“This quirky story leads you gently through the science and takes you on an unexpectedly moving and thought-provoking journey through the tensions of friendship, life, and missed opportunities.”
“Science, but not science fiction, and a wonderful twist. Absolutely preposterous, but wonderful.”
In a laboratory in London, PhD student Emily is halfway to becoming a scientist when an accusation of fraud threatens to shatter all she has worked for. Abandoned by those she trusted, she turns to her staunchly unscientific flatmate, Penny, and with just a cheap bottle of wine, a handful of coins, and a reckless indifference to plausibility, they discover why her experiments are behaving so … improbably.
What they uncover draws them deep into Emily’s DNA, through the dusty aisles of the university library, and eventually to the Arctic Circle, where they unearth a family secret hidden since the end of the Second World War – a story of lost love, tragedy, and a flaw in the fabric of chance itself.
But someone else knows what they’ve found. And some secrets are worth killing for.
An Improbable Hypothesis is a smart, inventive story about academia’s darker corners, the bonds of love and friendship, and how things don’t always work out as you’d expect.
“An utterly original delight.”
“A brilliantly off-beat blend of science, secrets, and sheer narrative charm.”
“This quirky story leads you gently through the science and takes you on an unexpectedly moving and thought-provoking journey through the tensions of friendship, life, and missed opportunities.”
“Science, but not science fiction, and a wonderful twist. Absolutely preposterous, but wonderful.”
- GenresHumor
313 pages, Paperback
Published December 3, 2025
About the author
Ellery Shaw
1 book2 followersI was originally from the UK, where I went to university in Manchester and London, which figure heavily in my book(s). When I'd just finished my PhD and was starting my first real job in academia, the HR person took one look at me and said, "You're not a scientist!"
It took me a while to work out she was right, and I was much too easily distracted to be a research scientist. Also, I was born to live in bare feet, not a lab coat, let alone a suit.
So I dropped out of academia, packed my bags and moved to the beach in Australia. For 10 years or so, I've been a freelance science writer, zipping between my office and the surf in my elderly VW kombi.
Having written hundreds of papers and articles about science, I started writing my first novel – An Improbable Hypothesis – during the pandemic lockdowns. Inevitably, I got somewhat distracted, and it went through many iterations and wasn't published until late 2025.
An Improbable Hypothesis is a cosy scientific mystery, if there is such a thing, mixed in with some history, academic politics, British humour, and a bit of love story. There is some science in there, but it's science in fiction and not science fiction.
My second book is on the way and should be published towards the end of 2026, as long as the kombi keeps going and the surf isn't too good.
Ellery
It took me a while to work out she was right, and I was much too easily distracted to be a research scientist. Also, I was born to live in bare feet, not a lab coat, let alone a suit.
So I dropped out of academia, packed my bags and moved to the beach in Australia. For 10 years or so, I've been a freelance science writer, zipping between my office and the surf in my elderly VW kombi.
Having written hundreds of papers and articles about science, I started writing my first novel – An Improbable Hypothesis – during the pandemic lockdowns. Inevitably, I got somewhat distracted, and it went through many iterations and wasn't published until late 2025.
An Improbable Hypothesis is a cosy scientific mystery, if there is such a thing, mixed in with some history, academic politics, British humour, and a bit of love story. There is some science in there, but it's science in fiction and not science fiction.
My second book is on the way and should be published towards the end of 2026, as long as the kombi keeps going and the surf isn't too good.
Ellery
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Displaying 1 - 2 of 2 reviews
March 12, 2026
Academic intrigue, a science mystery, a dastardly plot, a love story, and a secret that could change the world! This book twists and turns elegantly through them all, and then wraps them together in a beautifully unexpected finale.
You can tell that Ellery Shaw was a scientist and academic as he leads the reader gently through the arcane politics of academia and research. I particularly liked the flippancy of some of the characters, not at all like the cliched stuffy scientists we're usually presented with.
The science – which starts plausibly but takes an unexpected twist – is fascinating and easy to understand.
The female protagonists are an absolute riot and offer some comic relief, and the art versus science subtext is an interesting perspective that you might not expect from an ex-scientist.
An Improbable Hypothesis is perfect for fans of Matt Haig, Garmus Bonnie, and Natasha Pulley. Fans of Richard Osman would love it too – despite the science, the core of the story is a cosy mystery, with the same affection for the characters and British humour that Richard Osman shows in his books.
This is an exciting debut from a new author, and I look forward to seeing what scientific wonders Dr Ellery Shaw comes up with in the future!
You can tell that Ellery Shaw was a scientist and academic as he leads the reader gently through the arcane politics of academia and research. I particularly liked the flippancy of some of the characters, not at all like the cliched stuffy scientists we're usually presented with.
The science – which starts plausibly but takes an unexpected twist – is fascinating and easy to understand.
The female protagonists are an absolute riot and offer some comic relief, and the art versus science subtext is an interesting perspective that you might not expect from an ex-scientist.
An Improbable Hypothesis is perfect for fans of Matt Haig, Garmus Bonnie, and Natasha Pulley. Fans of Richard Osman would love it too – despite the science, the core of the story is a cosy mystery, with the same affection for the characters and British humour that Richard Osman shows in his books.
This is an exciting debut from a new author, and I look forward to seeing what scientific wonders Dr Ellery Shaw comes up with in the future!
March 14, 2026
A very witty and well-written book. It takes the idea of a "luck gene" and runs with it, exploring its consequences, advantages and drawbacks, and delivers a very plausible history for it. And a convincing mechanism, which is no small philosophical achievement.
The prose is delightfully wry ("the odds of a revelation this late in the wine seemed against the odds") and the protagonists are highly sympathetic. If you happen to have an academic background, you will inevitably cast the book with colleagues and students of your acquaintance. This is especially true of the antagonist!
The prose is delightfully wry ("the odds of a revelation this late in the wine seemed against the odds") and the protagonists are highly sympathetic. If you happen to have an academic background, you will inevitably cast the book with colleagues and students of your acquaintance. This is especially true of the antagonist!
Displaying 1 - 2 of 2 reviews