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A Century of Plenty: A Story of Progress for Generations to Come
“This book is as persuasive as it is useful. Well-written and accessible, yet the research is excellent.”—Joel Mokyr, 2025 Nobel laureate in Economic Sciences
Can you imagine even the poorest country in the world achieving the prosperity and quality of life of today's Switzerland—by 2100? Seems crazy, doesn't it? After all, we live in uncertain times. But we have pulled off marvels before. Human advances over the past 100 years have been unprecedented. Can we achieve another century of progress?
This book, a major research effort from the McKinsey Global Institute, explores the advances of the past century and what drove them—what we call the progress machine. It then investigates the possibility of a world of plenty by 2100 in which every person lives at, or above, the levels of prosperity enjoyed by Switzerland today. Such a future would require the global economy to be eight times bigger than it is today. Is this realistic? Will we have enough energy, food, metals and minerals? Can we keep innovating quickly enough? Can we deliver plenty while protecting our planet?
We ran the numbers, and the answer is yes.
But progress is a choice. Making what is possible probable needs a new narrative. A story in which growth is good, plenty is achievable, and people are inspired to innovate and build. Again and again, optimists have been on the right side of history. We believe they will be once more.
About the authors
Sven Smit is a McKinsey senior partner and the former chair of the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI). During his 35-year McKinsey career he also led the firm's European region and the Strategy and Corporate Finance Practice. He is based in Amsterdam.
Chris Bradley is a McKinsey senior partner and director of MGI. Along with Sven, he was a coauthor of the best-selling book Strategy Beyond the Hockey Stick. He is based in Sydney.
Nick Leung is a McKinsey senior partner and director of MGI. In his 33 years at the firm, he was chairman of McKinsey's Greater China region for over a decade, and leader of the Corporate Finance Practice in Asia. He is based in Hong Kong.
Marc Canal is an MGI senior fellow and leads research on global progress, with a focus on productivity, demographics, human capital, and technology. He is based in Barcelona.
The McKinsey Global Institute is McKinsey's independent research arm, established in 1990. This book draws on that long heritage, and on the specific contributions of our coauthor Janet Bush, MGI executive editor; Sherlyn Chen, engagement manager; Suhayl Chettih, MGI fellow; and MGI partners Jan Mischke and Jeongmin Seong.
Can you imagine even the poorest country in the world achieving the prosperity and quality of life of today's Switzerland—by 2100? Seems crazy, doesn't it? After all, we live in uncertain times. But we have pulled off marvels before. Human advances over the past 100 years have been unprecedented. Can we achieve another century of progress?
This book, a major research effort from the McKinsey Global Institute, explores the advances of the past century and what drove them—what we call the progress machine. It then investigates the possibility of a world of plenty by 2100 in which every person lives at, or above, the levels of prosperity enjoyed by Switzerland today. Such a future would require the global economy to be eight times bigger than it is today. Is this realistic? Will we have enough energy, food, metals and minerals? Can we keep innovating quickly enough? Can we deliver plenty while protecting our planet?
We ran the numbers, and the answer is yes.
But progress is a choice. Making what is possible probable needs a new narrative. A story in which growth is good, plenty is achievable, and people are inspired to innovate and build. Again and again, optimists have been on the right side of history. We believe they will be once more.
About the authors
Sven Smit is a McKinsey senior partner and the former chair of the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI). During his 35-year McKinsey career he also led the firm's European region and the Strategy and Corporate Finance Practice. He is based in Amsterdam.
Chris Bradley is a McKinsey senior partner and director of MGI. Along with Sven, he was a coauthor of the best-selling book Strategy Beyond the Hockey Stick. He is based in Sydney.
Nick Leung is a McKinsey senior partner and director of MGI. In his 33 years at the firm, he was chairman of McKinsey's Greater China region for over a decade, and leader of the Corporate Finance Practice in Asia. He is based in Hong Kong.
Marc Canal is an MGI senior fellow and leads research on global progress, with a focus on productivity, demographics, human capital, and technology. He is based in Barcelona.
The McKinsey Global Institute is McKinsey's independent research arm, established in 1990. This book draws on that long heritage, and on the specific contributions of our coauthor Janet Bush, MGI executive editor; Sherlyn Chen, engagement manager; Suhayl Chettih, MGI fellow; and MGI partners Jan Mischke and Jeongmin Seong.
572 pages, Kindle Edition
Published January 13, 2026
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Displaying 1 - 12 of 12 reviews
January 18, 2026
There Is A Great Future For All
This book is tremendously uplifting. Rooted in historical fact and coupling that with current advancements, the book presents a realistic assessment that we can build an even better world for all. My take away is threefold. 1. The best time to be alive is now. 2. The opportunity exists for us, if we choose, to create an even better, more sustainable world for the generations that follow us. 3. We must be deliberate in taking the necessary steps to make this vision a reality.
This book is tremendously uplifting. Rooted in historical fact and coupling that with current advancements, the book presents a realistic assessment that we can build an even better world for all. My take away is threefold. 1. The best time to be alive is now. 2. The opportunity exists for us, if we choose, to create an even better, more sustainable world for the generations that follow us. 3. We must be deliberate in taking the necessary steps to make this vision a reality.
October 1, 2026
Published by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) partly to mark the 100th anniversary of McKinsey & Company, A Century of Plenty began with a question from Ian Davis, a former McKinsey managing partner: What had MGI learned about the past hundred years? The four lead authors, senior MGI figures supported by a wider team including Janet Bush, Sherlyn Chen, Suhayl Chettih, Jan Mischke and Jeongmin Seong, answered that question and then asked a bolder one: Where could progress go from here?
Their answer is a vision of plenty, defined as a world by 2100 in which every person lives at or above the level of prosperity Switzerland enjoys today.
The first part of the book looks back at the century from 1925 to 2025. Over that 100-year span, global income per capita rose sixfold. The authors pair data on income, poverty, education and democracy with family histories of people who worked on the book, giving the numbers context and warmth. The stories carry a central theme: our grandparents lived through depression, war, disease and dislocation without knowing that it would all add up to an extraordinary century of human progress. They simply got on with it.
Yet the authors are careful not to declare victory. By MGI's measure, the world is only about halfway toward empowering everyone to achieve their potential. The story of the past century is therefore one of stunning progress as well as substantial unfinished business.
The second part examines what the authors call the "progress machine." Rather than relying on the economist's tidy model of capital, labor and innovation, they devote chapters to skills, workers, investment and invention, but also to urbanization, trade and markets. Again, they illustrate these forces through people and places rather than theory alone.
Progress emerges as a winding and sometimes grubby climb. The authors take on the hardest objections directly, including emissions, environmental damage and inequality. Their conclusion is unapologetic but evidence based: growth has been worth it, and continued growth is essential to extending prosperity to everyone.
The challenge is that the world in which the next century begins looks very different from the one in which the last century ended. The post Cold War era of globalization, a unipolar order, cheap money, favorable demographics and abundant energy has given way to multipolarity, aging populations, intense competition for energy and electricity, and slower economic growth almost everywhere. The book's claim is that plenty remains achievable in this new world, not just the old one.
The final part stress tests that aspiration. The authors argue that plenty is physically possible. There can be enough energy, food, metals and minerals. Innovation can move fast enough. And it can be accomplished while protecting the planet.
Their energy scenario illustrates the scale of the challenge. A world of plenty could require up to three times more energy and twelve times more electricity, supplied roughly 40 percent by nuclear power, 40 percent by renewables and 20 percent by everything else. Importantly, the authors rely primarily on technologies that already exist rather than on speculative breakthroughs, treating AI and robotics largely as potential upside.
The Swiss benchmark is deliberately provocative. Swiss income per capita, about $82,000 by the authors' measure, corresponds roughly to the income level enjoyed by today's global top 1 percent. Their aspiration is therefore extraordinary: bring everyone on earth to a level of prosperity now enjoyed by only a tiny fraction of humanity.
The authors conclude that the biggest obstacles are not physical but political, institutional and imaginative. Pessimism is a threat because it can be self-fulfilling. People who doubt the future are less inclined to invest, build or have children. Yet the authors also recognize that optimism has to be earned. Rather than simply asserting that the future will be better, they methodically lay out the arguments of the skeptics and respond to them with data and analysis.
They cite Edelman Trust surveys showing that no advanced Western economy has more than 30 percent of people expecting the next generation to be better off, and in France the figure is just 9 percent. Places that have experienced more recent rapid progress, including China and India, remain considerably more hopeful.
A Century of Plenty offers an antidote to that pessimism, but not through wishful thinking. Its optimism is grounded in what human beings have already accomplished and in a careful examination of what remains physically and technologically possible. Nobel laureate Joel Mokyr called the book persuasive, useful and accessible, and praised the quality of its research.
I agree. The book left me with an even more important thought: plenty is possible, but progress is not inevitable. Each generation has to choose to build it.
Their answer is a vision of plenty, defined as a world by 2100 in which every person lives at or above the level of prosperity Switzerland enjoys today.
The first part of the book looks back at the century from 1925 to 2025. Over that 100-year span, global income per capita rose sixfold. The authors pair data on income, poverty, education and democracy with family histories of people who worked on the book, giving the numbers context and warmth. The stories carry a central theme: our grandparents lived through depression, war, disease and dislocation without knowing that it would all add up to an extraordinary century of human progress. They simply got on with it.
Yet the authors are careful not to declare victory. By MGI's measure, the world is only about halfway toward empowering everyone to achieve their potential. The story of the past century is therefore one of stunning progress as well as substantial unfinished business.
The second part examines what the authors call the "progress machine." Rather than relying on the economist's tidy model of capital, labor and innovation, they devote chapters to skills, workers, investment and invention, but also to urbanization, trade and markets. Again, they illustrate these forces through people and places rather than theory alone.
Progress emerges as a winding and sometimes grubby climb. The authors take on the hardest objections directly, including emissions, environmental damage and inequality. Their conclusion is unapologetic but evidence based: growth has been worth it, and continued growth is essential to extending prosperity to everyone.
The challenge is that the world in which the next century begins looks very different from the one in which the last century ended. The post Cold War era of globalization, a unipolar order, cheap money, favorable demographics and abundant energy has given way to multipolarity, aging populations, intense competition for energy and electricity, and slower economic growth almost everywhere. The book's claim is that plenty remains achievable in this new world, not just the old one.
The final part stress tests that aspiration. The authors argue that plenty is physically possible. There can be enough energy, food, metals and minerals. Innovation can move fast enough. And it can be accomplished while protecting the planet.
Their energy scenario illustrates the scale of the challenge. A world of plenty could require up to three times more energy and twelve times more electricity, supplied roughly 40 percent by nuclear power, 40 percent by renewables and 20 percent by everything else. Importantly, the authors rely primarily on technologies that already exist rather than on speculative breakthroughs, treating AI and robotics largely as potential upside.
The Swiss benchmark is deliberately provocative. Swiss income per capita, about $82,000 by the authors' measure, corresponds roughly to the income level enjoyed by today's global top 1 percent. Their aspiration is therefore extraordinary: bring everyone on earth to a level of prosperity now enjoyed by only a tiny fraction of humanity.
The authors conclude that the biggest obstacles are not physical but political, institutional and imaginative. Pessimism is a threat because it can be self-fulfilling. People who doubt the future are less inclined to invest, build or have children. Yet the authors also recognize that optimism has to be earned. Rather than simply asserting that the future will be better, they methodically lay out the arguments of the skeptics and respond to them with data and analysis.
They cite Edelman Trust surveys showing that no advanced Western economy has more than 30 percent of people expecting the next generation to be better off, and in France the figure is just 9 percent. Places that have experienced more recent rapid progress, including China and India, remain considerably more hopeful.
A Century of Plenty offers an antidote to that pessimism, but not through wishful thinking. Its optimism is grounded in what human beings have already accomplished and in a careful examination of what remains physically and technologically possible. Nobel laureate Joel Mokyr called the book persuasive, useful and accessible, and praised the quality of its research.
I agree. The book left me with an even more important thought: plenty is possible, but progress is not inevitable. Each generation has to choose to build it.
August 30, 2026
Struggled to see what kind of new insight this book brought to light. I found myself impatiently pushing through waiting for the moment the obvious recap would be done and we’d get to the point of the book. Disappointedly, it never came.
The book is more so a summary of quite common or otherwise widely available knowledge, packaged to ultimately provide a “thought experiment” of whether, realistically, given the earth’s resources, the laws of physics and the precedent of history, we could achieve a ‘century of plenty’. I.e. it’s a book wrapped around an economic forecasting model.
The authors introduce the book as a project started to celebrate McKinsey’s 100th anniversary, and indeed I feel this is more of an internal or more academic piece of work than a book meant for the general public. Mainly because, although McKinsey is infamous for always pressing this key question on its employees, this book leaves you wondering: “so what?”.
The book is more so a summary of quite common or otherwise widely available knowledge, packaged to ultimately provide a “thought experiment” of whether, realistically, given the earth’s resources, the laws of physics and the precedent of history, we could achieve a ‘century of plenty’. I.e. it’s a book wrapped around an economic forecasting model.
The authors introduce the book as a project started to celebrate McKinsey’s 100th anniversary, and indeed I feel this is more of an internal or more academic piece of work than a book meant for the general public. Mainly because, although McKinsey is infamous for always pressing this key question on its employees, this book leaves you wondering: “so what?”.
April 13, 2026
Interesting. More optimistic about our future as a species than most things in the press currently.
September 1, 2026
it feels good to read a book reflecting a "can do" attitude and a growth mindset
August 9, 2026
Well documented and finally some optimism!
Good analysis of what you need to believe to be optimistic about the next century. Much more stimulating than pessimistic analyses. Well documented.
Good analysis of what you need to believe to be optimistic about the next century. Much more stimulating than pessimistic analyses. Well documented.
March 11, 2026
Thoughtful, detailed research with an empowering message: physical limits do not constrain us from achieving a world of “plenty” for everyone on earth as long as we keep the progress machine humming.
April 21, 2026
“In this world, the optimists have it, not because they are always right, but because they are positive. Even when wrong, they are positive, and that is the way of achievement, correction, improvement, and success. Educated, eyes-open optimism pays; pessimism can only offer the empty consolation of being right.
The one lesson that emerges is the need to keep trying. No miracles. No perfection. No millennium. No apocalypse. We must cultivate a skeptical faith, avoid dogma, listen and watch well, try to clarify and define ends, the better to choose means.” -David Landes
https://mckinsey.louisa.ai/group/grou...
The one lesson that emerges is the need to keep trying. No miracles. No perfection. No millennium. No apocalypse. We must cultivate a skeptical faith, avoid dogma, listen and watch well, try to clarify and define ends, the better to choose means.” -David Landes
https://mckinsey.louisa.ai/group/grou...
February 19, 2026
This is a tremendously positive story of human achievement and potential. I felt good listening to it in the same way and for the same reasons it felt good to watch Hans Rosling TED talks. It uses facts to elevate us from the temporary struggles and inability to see the hugely positive overall trajectory that we are on. In a similar way, it uses facts to argue why the future has all the prerequisites to be bright if we want it to.
Admittedly, a few of the authors and contributors are friends and old colleagues of mine, and some of the brightest minds I ever came across - hence, I might be a bit biased in my views here. Nonetheless, an amazing story.
Admittedly, a few of the authors and contributors are friends and old colleagues of mine, and some of the brightest minds I ever came across - hence, I might be a bit biased in my views here. Nonetheless, an amazing story.
October 7, 2026
Now you have proof of why you´re an optimist! Often times, I´ve been named an optimist and have felt the disdain or scorn. Those who think of themselves as realists, like to believe in an apocaliptic future. I, for one, am a firm believer in the saying: you create what you believe in. Thank God for other people who believe in what´s possible and have the numbers to prove that we´re closer than we think. A bright future´s ahead and the only thing separating us from it, is what we believe in.
April 7, 2026
Interesante ensayo que resume las grandes áreas de progreso de la humanidad. Podría pasar, más bien, por un informe bastante completo. Pero tiene interés.
September 28, 2026
Excellent overview of the challenges in store as we navigate our way through the coming decades.
Displaying 1 - 12 of 12 reviews