Ten Billion to One

by M.E. Tilburn

Morgan Fox thought he was training for disaster relief. He was wrong.

When the global population hits ten billion, Zero-Day begins—a countdown that marks certain children for removal.

Morgan’s job? Enforce it.

But one assignment forces him to confront the truth behind Zero-Day—and the fear he sees in a mother’s eyes changes everything. The system he serves isn’t saving humanity.

It’s destroying it.

Now Morgan has 72 hours to help Anna Barr and her marked daughter escape, before his former partner arrives to finish what he started.

One mother. One baby. One chance to defy the regime that wants them dead.

In a world where love is a liability and every birth could be a death sentence, how far would you go to save a life that doesn’t count?

A gripping dystopian thriller about the cost of compliance... and the courage to resist.

Perfect for fans of The Handmaid’s Tale, Children of Men, and Black Mirror.

121 pages, Kindle Edition

Expected publication January 23, 2026

About the author

I am a UK-based writer of fiction, mixing psychological tension with near-future speculation, exploring memory, identity, and the fragile balance between control and freedom - at least, that is the hope.

When not writing, I'm usually being outsmarted by my two daughters, or trying (and failing) to keep on top of the washing.

Ten Billion to One will be my first novella, with more projects in progress , including flash fiction experiments and a novel in the works too.

Most recently, I won the Andromeda Magazine Flash-Fiction contest for October 2025 🏆

Reviews

[Stacy40pages · Rating 5 out of 5]

Ten Billion to One by ME Tilburn. Thanks to the author for the gifted copy ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

Morgan’s job is to enforce Zero Day, a countdown marking children for removal for population control. One assignment forces him to confront the truth about his job and help the mother.

This was an exciting dystopian thriller novella that I read in just one morning. It flies by and you’re hooked immediately. A lot of dystopian novels can be hard to understand, especially as novellas with limited space for backstory, but this one made complete sense and was explained as part of the story. Some news series the main characters would see would help to explain it as well. I loved Morgan’s character and the author did a great job of adding a “bad guy” simply by his sadism alone, without a heavy backstory.

“That was what we were preparing for - population control disguised as mercy.“

Read if you like
-Novellas
-Dystopian thrillers
-Escaping government control
-Maternal love overpowering

Ten Billion to One comes out 1/23.

[Happily Ellie After · Rating 4 out of 5]

If you loved The Handmaid’s Tale then you will love this debut novella!

At only 107 pages, it made for an easy and action-packed read that I finished in one sitting.

For a short story, this one definitely packed a punch. It was straight to the point, gripping and character driven. I loved the writing style. It was easy to pick up and to get lost in the dystopian society that Tilburn created. Similarly to The Handmaids Tale, this story focuses on the wrongdoings of a society towards women and their new-born babies. A mother who will do anything to protect her child and an inside man, who defies protocol and risks everything to stand up for what’s right. A powerful and emotional short that hits you in all the feels.

I don’t read many novellas as I love getting stuck into a meaty story. But this is one I would definitely recommend and I can’t wait to read whatever comes next from this author.

With thanks to the author for sending me an advanced copy of this novella to read and review. The opinions in this review are entirely my own and have not been influenced in any way.

[Heidireadsitall · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book hooked me instantly and had me flipping pages like my life depended on it. Morgan Fox starts out following the rules just like everyone else, but the moment he learns the truth behind Zero Day the whole story explodes. I was glued to every chapter as he races to save Anna and her baby while the clock is ticking and danger is everywhere. And I’m not usually a violent person but I wanted to throat punch Trent.

The tension is nonstop, the world building feels uncomfortably real, and the moral stakes hit so hard. I loved how this story shows the power of one brave choice and how far a person will go to protect a life that is not supposed to matter. It is gripping, heartbreaking, and surprisingly hopeful in all the right ways.

If you want a dystopian thriller that keeps your pulse up and your heart in your throat, this one delivers.

[Bree · Rating 4 out of 5]

In a world where loving your child can get them killed, a mother does everything to save her daughter. This is also the story of a man willing to risk his life for what he believes is right. This fast-paced novella keeps you riveted to the end. The author certainly knows how to keep us on the edge of our seats and wanting more. This book tells of the horrors that befall this world but reminds us that there is always hope for a new beginning .

[Chelsi Warder · Rating 3 out of 5]

✨️ ARC Review ✨️

okay, so, I think that this story has the potential to be a 5 star read for me. I really liked the premise of it. I just wanted more. as it right now, it feels more like the bones of a story that is begging to be fleshed out. more world building, more character development, just more! the author has a great voice, use it!

[Lisa · Rating 5 out of 5]

I binged "Ten Billion To One" in one sitting because I couldn't put it down. It is a very unique, heart-racing storyline with a Dystopian feel. There are villains and heroes, despair and hope. M.E. Tilburn wrote an amazing book.

[Keon Shore · Rating 4 out of 5]

I read this book on the train while it was stuck and finished in one reading. It was gripping and appalling (which being dystopian I expected it to be) in the right kind of way I guess--I didn't want to put it down. For the length of the novella I found it had the expected depth of characters and breath of story -- not too much and not too little.

The story is about a world-population control method put into practice and the MC is part of the enforcer team. But as the first people become impacted by this new method, the MC feels conflicted and makes a decision to help someone he shouldn't.

For me, as a mom, the theme was a bit too under the skin. The explanation of why this method was even being used also didn't quite hit it for me (it's not about the numbers it's about...) in the sense that, yes, I get it, it's supposed to be dystopian, but does it really make sense?
I'm ok with it not being perfectly sensible--books like the hunger games and others also don't make perfect sense and can also feel depressing, but it still was a bit of a thorn in my side while reading.

Now, while this book was incredibly oppressive and the theme a bit horrifying, it was also a great action story with a hint of... maybe not hope but at least faith in the human spirit (of some of us). This is NOT a happy, comforting read. It's a display of humanity's worst ideas and ideals. And displaying those it does quite well--from oppressive control and surveillance to the small-time bullies being encouraged to do their worst. I can easily see this turned into a movie: think Children of Men, with the opposite premise, but just as hopeless.

I give four stars because it's well written, well designed and slides off the pages and into your mind and under your skin. It's missing one star because personally I couldn't get over what the mothers had to go through, and the torment didn't seem justifiable no matter how I looked at it.

I'll be looking out for more books of this author in the future though. They definitely captured my attention.

[jenny is reading again · Rating 3 out of 5]

Morgan Fox believes he’s serving humanity, until he learns the truth.
In a near future where a global population cap triggers Zero-Day, certain children are marked for elimination and Morgan’s job is to enforce it. When he’s ordered to remove a baby and sees the terror in her mother’s eyes, he realizes the system isn’t saving the world - it’s erasing it. With just 72 hours, Morgan must betray everything he knows to help a mother and child escape, risking his life to defy a regime that treats love as a crime and survival as a privilege.

This novella is a powerful and emotionally charged dystopian story that delivers intense tension in a short format. Its chilling premise where a system decides which lives no longer count feels disturbingly plausible and the focus on compliance versus conscience gives it real depth. What truly stands out for me is the emotional core. The fear of a mother, the vulnerability of a child and one man’s painful awakening as he chooses humanity over obedience.

The pacing is tight, the stakes are high, and the story lingers long after it ends. It’s gripping as it is, but the world, characters and themes are so compelling that it would be absolutely perfect expanded into a full-length novel.

If you enjoy dystopian fiction that’s fast-paced, emotionally charged and morally unsettling, this novella is absolutely worth reading.

Thank you to M.E Tilburn for trusting me with this ARC! 💜

[Akansha Chauhan · Rating 4 out of 5]

Vibe: Dystopian Thriller, Fast-Paced, High Tension, Emotional Survival

I read Ten Billion to One in a single sitting because once you start, you literally cannot put it down. The concept is terrifyingly plausible: in a future with a global population cap, "Zero-Day" marks the moment where new babies are illegal, and any child born after the countdown is branded an Outlier, and is marked for elimination.

Morgan Fox is an Enforcer who truly believes he is saving humanity by removing these Outlier babies, until he looks into a mother’s eyes and realizes the system is wrong. Watching him switch from a cold follower of rules to someone risking his life to help a mother and child escape was gripping.

The villain, Trent, is pure evil, maybe a bit one-dimensional in his cruelty, but he makes you want to jump into the pages and fight him yourself. He is that kind of person who has the power to crawl under your skin and getting on your nerves.

This is a novella, only about 107 pages, so the pacing is incredibly tight with no wasted words. It is oppressive and grim at times, showing humanity’s worst ideas, but it also carries a sliver of hope about a parent's love. If you want a quick, heart-racing read for a cold winter evening, this is it.

[Corey Darkwater · Rating 4 out of 5]

Ten Billion to One has a SUPER strong, creepy premise, and it is this alone that sustained me in turning the pages, as I struggled with parts of it. The subtle point of the elimination of Zero-Day and the Outliers, however, actually passes for creepy believable, and those parts where the training of him to implement policies, for example, sandbag "children," a reward for empathy, and the developing understanding of the true purpose of his assignment, were quite gripping. It is with Anna and the baby, however, that the underlying unfamiliar creepiness becomes enlivened with the blood-and-guts familiarity of life.

However, as one reading participant, I do think that I was able to recall more instances where I was negatively affected by reading than positively, even as I was aware that this novel was also a very well-crafted work. The sense of hopelessness extends throughout and is never relenting from beginning through end, offering little respite even to allow the reader to catch its breath. A human proxy representing this particular society, Trent is also an extremely effective foil that is at the same time also one-dimensional; this is certainly one aspect that I was hoping for less. At points, this novel appears to strike every possible chord within the human realm at every possible point – babies, propaganda songs, punishment by violent means – that can come across as a little bit ham-fisted.

Where, finally, the story did continue to work for me, therefore, was in its commitment to its world and its sense of purpose. The feeling of suspense in regards to the compliance checks and the escape mission is really believable, and I was interested enough in Anna, Morgan, and the baby to see what happens in it, even when I was frustrated with all the darkness. I may wind up with more complains than praise, but I don't think it is a bad book – it is a dark, well-written one, and it does exactly what it set out to do, although whether it’s more effective or smothering has a great deal to do with your feelings towards all of this darkness.

The Goods:
- Dystopian series with a great concept involving the Zero-Day and Outlier kids
- Scenes of training, the checks on compliance, and escape scenes done well and with a good immediate feeling
- The core of feeling for Anna, her baby, and Morgan, which gives such large ideas genuine human significance

The Bads:
– The constantly pessimistic context possesses so few points of reprieve in the book, which might make the task of reading the book emotionally draining.
– A fairly monotonous, brutally sadistic big bad who might let down those expecting more complex villains.
- Emotional notes that are a little too obvious in their dealing with impact points by stacking too many of them in the area rather than allowing them to be self-evident.

I can recommend “Ten Billion to One” to those who might get some enjoyment out of viewing their dystopia in a darker, more intense, more thought-provoking form. I might find this book to have some more negative experiences to it, I don’t know, I can definitely realize how well this book is put together, how good this particular idea is, how true, how likely, this particular idea involving “Zero-Day, Outlier, and just people who are just swept up in this situation where they are basically just enforcing something that’s absolutely appalling to think about, this situation that Anna, Anna’s baby, and Morgan find themselves in.”

Every book hits differently for every reader.
Thanks for reading my review.

- Corey

[Micaela · Rating 4 out of 5]

Ten Billion to One is a grim dystopian vision that centres around Enforcers one of whom (Morgan) who is less than enthusiastic about his new job. The story builds on a looming event that involves the collection of “outliers” ; those babies unlucky enough to have been born on the wrong side of the countdown. The countdowns together with the branding of babies and the Enforcer - compliance checks, create a sense of impending trauma that some may find disturbing. The book is well written however due to it being a novella it is light on character development. Overall an enjoyable and stimulating read, perfect for a cold winter’s evening.

[Heather Strachan-Tilburn · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book pulled me in straight away. It’s unusual for a short novel to immerse you in its world so quickly.
I was desperate to read ahead and also terrified to see what might befall Anna and her daughter. It’s tense, engaging and it feels so real that it brought a tear to my eyes. A brilliant read!