Ten Billion to One

by M.E. Tilburn

Morgan Fox thought he was training for disaster relief. He was wrong.

When the global population hits ten billion, Zero-Day begins—a countdown that marks certain children for removal.

Morgan’s job? Enforce it.

But one assignment forces him to confront the truth behind Zero-Day—and the fear he sees in a mother’s eyes changes everything. The system he serves isn’t saving humanity.

It’s destroying it.

Now Morgan has 72 hours to help Anna Barr and her marked daughter escape, before his former partner arrives to finish what he started.

One mother. One baby. One chance to defy the regime that wants them dead.

In a world where love is a liability and every birth could be a death sentence, how far would you go to save a life that doesn’t count?

A gripping dystopian thriller about the cost of compliance... and the courage to resist.

Perfect for fans of The Handmaid’s Tale, Children of Men, and Black Mirror.

120 pages, Kindle Edition

Published January 23, 2026

About the author

I am a UK-based writer of fiction, mixing psychological tension with near-future speculation, exploring memory, identity, and the fragile balance between control and freedom - at least, that is the hope.

When not writing, I'm usually being outsmarted by my two daughters, or trying (and failing) to keep on top of the washing.

Ten Billion to One will be my first novella, with more projects in progress , including flash fiction experiments and a novel in the works too.

Most recently, I won the Andromeda Magazine Flash-Fiction contest for October 2025 🏆

Reviews

[Stacy40pages · Rating 5 out of 5]

Ten Billion to One by ME Tilburn. Thanks to the author for the gifted copy ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

Morgan’s job is to enforce Zero Day, a countdown marking children for removal for population control. One assignment forces him to confront the truth about his job and help the mother.

This was an exciting dystopian thriller novella that I read in just one morning. It flies by and you’re hooked immediately. A lot of dystopian novels can be hard to understand, especially as novellas with limited space for backstory, but this one made complete sense and was explained as part of the story. Some news series the main characters would see would help to explain it as well. I loved Morgan’s character and the author did a great job of adding a “bad guy” simply by his sadism alone, without a heavy backstory.

“That was what we were preparing for - population control disguised as mercy.“

Read if you like
-Novellas
-Dystopian thrillers
-Escaping government control
-Maternal love overpowering

Ten Billion to One comes out 1/23.

[Shattered Anthologies · Rating 5 out of 5]

Ten Billion to One completely pulled me in from the very first pages. It’s rare for such a short book to create this much tension and emotional weight so quickly. I thought I’d read a few chapters, and ended up finishing it in one sitting.

The story takes place in a dystopian future where population control has reached terrifying extremes. We mainly follow Morgan, part of the enforcement system, who slowly discovers what “Zero-Day” truly means. His internal struggle is one of the strongest parts of the book. He’s not some perfect, fearless hero, he’s someone caught inside a brutal system, forced to choose between obedience and doing what’s right.

What hit me the hardest was the emotional intensity. The fear, especially from the mother, feels raw and deeply unsettling, in a way that’s clearly intentional. It’s not an easy read, and it’s definitely not comforting. It’s oppressive, tense, and at times heartbreaking. But that’s exactly why it works. It makes you feel something.

For a novella (just over 100 pages), it delivers incredible impact. The pacing is sharp, the multiple POVs never feel confusing, and the writing makes it effortless to fall into this tightly controlled, surveillance-heavy society.

Yes, it’s dark. Yes, it’s uncomfortable. But beneath all of that, there’s a powerful message about courage and the weight of one brave decision. Even in a world built on control and fear, humanity still fights back.

This book may be short, but it leaves a lasting mark. It’s gripping, emotional, thought-provoking, and incredibly effective in what it sets out to do.

Verdict: A gripping, emotional, and disturbingly realistic dystopian read that packs a massive punch in a short format. Dark, thought-provoking, and deeply human. This one stays with you long after the final page.

Huge thank you to the author for reaching out and kindly sending me a free ebook copy for review. I truly appreciate the opportunity to read and share my thoughts. It means a lot to support indie authors and their work!

[Cameron Trost · Rating 5 out of 5]

Ten Billion to One is a dystopian novella that starts and ends with a kick... or rather, with push-ups. The scene is set; a dystopian future where the world population has hit ten billion and certain babies are thus marked for removal. Thematically, we're in the same world as Harry Harrison's "Make Room! Make Room!", upon which the film "Soylent Green" was based, and the very opposite problematic imagined in P.D. James' "The Children of Men". Tilburn sets the scene perfectly, with a literal countdown determining the fate of Anna's baby, and a man who had been trained to mindlessly enforce procedure allows his humanity to lead him to take drastic measures to protect mother and daughter. This is a fast-paced, tense dystopian adventure that you can't help but fear isn't all that far-fetched after all. Tilburn spins his tale deftly, and the skilful prose enhances the atmosphere. One example that stuck with me is this one: "Forty-eight hours to teach a mother how to bury her love beneath protocol". For me, this sentence sums up the dreadful perspective offered by this novella. If you consider yourself a fan of dystopian fiction, you need to cast yourself into The Outlier Chronicles.

[Bree · Rating 4 out of 5]

In a world where loving your child can get them killed, a mother does everything to save her daughter. This is also the story of a man willing to risk his life for what he believes is right. This fast-paced novella keeps you riveted to the end. The author certainly knows how to keep us on the edge of our seats and wanting more. This book tells of the horrors that befall this world but reminds us that there is always hope for a new beginning .

[Addy · Rating 5 out of 5]

Two Billion to One by M.E. Tilburn is a short, dystopian thriller that can easily be read in one sitting. The lovely author reached out to me a while back, and I was more than willing to ARC read for him. Thank you! I loved it. This was a 5-star read!

Going into the book, I went in totally blind. At first, I was a little confused but also extremely invested. The story sucks you in, and it's impossible not to wonder what will occur next! My only thing that I would add is more information on Zero Day and how it came to be. However, I do believe that there is potential for future books within this series! Perhaps in a future book? 👀 Overall, I enjoyed this one, and I'm excited to see what we get in the future from M.E. Tilburn.

[Heidireadsitall · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book hooked me instantly and had me flipping pages like my life depended on it. Morgan Fox starts out following the rules just like everyone else, but the moment he learns the truth behind Zero Day the whole story explodes. I was glued to every chapter as he races to save Anna and her baby while the clock is ticking and danger is everywhere. And I’m not usually a violent person but I wanted to throat punch Trent.

The tension is nonstop, the world building feels uncomfortably real, and the moral stakes hit so hard. I loved how this story shows the power of one brave choice and how far a person will go to protect a life that is not supposed to matter. It is gripping, heartbreaking, and surprisingly hopeful in all the right ways.

If you want a dystopian thriller that keeps your pulse up and your heart in your throat, this one delivers.

[Lisa · Rating 5 out of 5]

I binged "Ten Billion To One" in one sitting because I couldn't put it down. It is a very unique, heart-racing storyline with a Dystopian feel. There are villains and heroes, despair and hope. M.E. Tilburn wrote an amazing book.

[Happily Ellie After · Rating 4 out of 5]

If you loved The Handmaid’s Tale then you will love this debut novella!

At only 107 pages, it made for an easy and action-packed read that I finished in one sitting.

For a short story, this one definitely packed a punch. It was straight to the point, gripping and character driven. I loved the writing style. It was easy to pick up and to get lost in the dystopian society that Tilburn created. Similarly to The Handmaids Tale, this story focuses on the wrongdoings of a society towards women and their new-born babies. A mother who will do anything to protect her child and an inside man, who defies protocol and risks everything to stand up for what’s right. A powerful and emotional short that hits you in all the feels.

I don’t read many novellas as I love getting stuck into a meaty story. But this is one I would definitely recommend and I can’t wait to read whatever comes next from this author.

With thanks to the author for sending me an advanced copy of this novella to read and review. The opinions in this review are entirely my own and have not been influenced in any way.

[Chelsi Warder · Rating 3 out of 5]

✨️ ARC Review ✨️

okay, so, I think that this story has the potential to be a 5 star read for me. I really liked the premise of it. I just wanted more. as it right now, it feels more like the bones of a story that is begging to be fleshed out. more world building, more character development, just more! the author has a great voice, use it!

[Aimee · Rating 4 out of 5]

As a lover of dystopian and political fiction, this was a great short read. The concept is so intriguing and the pace is fast.

My only wish was that it was longer so that I could analyse every minute detail of how this world came about and every unsaid thing between the chapters. Also to immerse myself in it for days and weeks.

[Keon Shore · Rating 4 out of 5]

I read this book on the train while it was stuck and finished in one reading. It was gripping and appalling (which being dystopian I expected it to be) in the right kind of way I guess--I didn't want to put it down. For the length of the novella I found it had the expected depth of characters and breath of story -- not too much and not too little.

The story is about a world-population control method put into practice and the MC is part of the enforcer team. But as the first people become impacted by this new method, the MC feels conflicted and makes a decision to help someone he shouldn't.

For me, as a mom, the theme was a bit too under the skin. The explanation of why this method was even being used also didn't quite hit it for me (it's not about the numbers it's about...) in the sense that, yes, I get it, it's supposed to be dystopian, but does it really make sense?
I'm ok with it not being perfectly sensible--books like the hunger games and others also don't make perfect sense and can also feel depressing, but it still was a bit of a thorn in my side while reading.

Now, while this book was incredibly oppressive and the theme a bit horrifying, it was also a great action story with a hint of... maybe not hope but at least faith in the human spirit (of some of us). This is NOT a happy, comforting read. It's a display of humanity's worst ideas and ideals. And displaying those it does quite well--from oppressive control and surveillance to the small-time bullies being encouraged to do their worst. I can easily see this turned into a movie: think Children of Men, with the opposite premise, but just as hopeless.

I give four stars because it's well written, well designed and slides off the pages and into your mind and under your skin. It's missing one star because personally I couldn't get over what the mothers had to go through, and the torment didn't seem justifiable no matter how I looked at it.

I'll be looking out for more books of this author in the future though. They definitely captured my attention.

[Jade Ford · Rating 5 out of 5]

Ten Billion to One is a powerful dystopian read, that at times I had to pause reading because of how emotional it made me feel reading it.

Featuring a world, where their solution to overcrowding/expoential population growth, is the extreme solution of eliminating "outliers" e.g. infants born after a certain time, it was made far worse by the fact that they allow the children to grow before taking them from their parents. Rather than enforcing strict reproductive rules, they tackle population growth by emotionally breaking individuals so that if they do have children, they're then punished in the worst way and disusaded from doing so again.

I'm feeling utterly wrecked just writing this review and remembering the read! As a mother, my heart broke (and was then stomped on) following the story of Anna and the birth of her "outlier" and I almost stopped reading it because I just felt so devestated. I did however continue, because I was so invested in seeing how it wrapped up, and for those who will find this a hard read - please be reassured that (without spoilers), no harm to the "outliers" happens on page.

(Note that I'm having to write outliers because otherwise i'm gonna get all worked up again!)

For my pure emotive reaction to this read, I have to rate it a solid 5 stars! A bit like Lord of the flies, it was one of those books that just sat with me afterwards.

To top if off, it's actually really well written! It's a novella at 121 pages, and it was surprising at how complete it felt - I felt fully immersed in the dystopian world, and engaged with all of the characters. It was so fast paced, and thrilling, I was devouring the pages as quickly as I could!

I must admit, I have a few questions about how the outlier system works. Do the rich/powerful people get a waiver in this world for example? But, I feel this adds to my interest in the story and my eagerness for the sequel. It's been a long time since I found a read, where I've become so intrigued by the whole concept.

I leave you with this quote:

“Tomorrow, you save her life by breaking your heart,”

[jenny is reading again · Rating 3 out of 5]

Morgan Fox believes he’s serving humanity, until he learns the truth.
In a near future where a global population cap triggers Zero-Day, certain children are marked for elimination and Morgan’s job is to enforce it. When he’s ordered to remove a baby and sees the terror in her mother’s eyes, he realizes the system isn’t saving the world - it’s erasing it. With just 72 hours, Morgan must betray everything he knows to help a mother and child escape, risking his life to defy a regime that treats love as a crime and survival as a privilege.

This novella is a powerful and emotionally charged dystopian story that delivers intense tension in a short format. Its chilling premise where a system decides which lives no longer count feels disturbingly plausible and the focus on compliance versus conscience gives it real depth. What truly stands out for me is the emotional core. The fear of a mother, the vulnerability of a child and one man’s painful awakening as he chooses humanity over obedience.

The pacing is tight, the stakes are high, and the story lingers long after it ends. It’s gripping as it is, but the world, characters and themes are so compelling that it would be absolutely perfect expanded into a full-length novel.

If you enjoy dystopian fiction that’s fast-paced, emotionally charged and morally unsettling, this novella is absolutely worth reading.

Thank you to M.E Tilburn for trusting me with this ARC! 💜

[Akansha Chauhan · Rating 4 out of 5]

Vibe: Dystopian Thriller, Fast-Paced, High Tension, Emotional Survival

I read Ten Billion to One in a single sitting because once you start, you literally cannot put it down. The concept is terrifyingly plausible: in a future with a global population cap, "Zero-Day" marks the moment where new babies are illegal, and any child born after the countdown is branded an Outlier, and is marked for elimination.

Morgan Fox is an Enforcer who truly believes he is saving humanity by removing these Outlier babies, until he looks into a mother’s eyes and realizes the system is wrong. Watching him switch from a cold follower of rules to someone risking his life to help a mother and child escape was gripping.

The villain, Trent, is pure evil, maybe a bit one-dimensional in his cruelty, but he makes you want to jump into the pages and fight him yourself. He is that kind of person who has the power to crawl under your skin and getting on your nerves.

This is a novella, only about 107 pages, so the pacing is incredibly tight with no wasted words. It is oppressive and grim at times, showing humanity’s worst ideas, but it also carries a sliver of hope about a parent's love. If you want a quick, heart-racing read for a cold winter evening, this is it.

[Corey Darkwater · Rating 4 out of 5]

Ten Billion to One has a SUPER strong, creepy premise, and it is this alone that sustained me in turning the pages, as I struggled with parts of it. The subtle point of the elimination of Zero-Day and the Outliers, however, actually passes for creepy believable, and those parts where the training of him to implement policies, for example, sandbag "children," a reward for empathy, and the developing understanding of the true purpose of his assignment, were quite gripping. It is with Anna and the baby, however, that the underlying unfamiliar creepiness becomes enlivened with the blood-and-guts familiarity of life.

However, as one reading participant, I do think that I was able to recall more instances where I was negatively affected by reading than positively, even as I was aware that this novel was also a very well-crafted work. The sense of hopelessness extends throughout and is never relenting from beginning through end, offering little respite even to allow the reader to catch its breath. A human proxy representing this particular society, Trent is also an extremely effective foil that is at the same time also one-dimensional; this is certainly one aspect that I was hoping for less. At points, this novel appears to strike every possible chord within the human realm at every possible point – babies, propaganda songs, punishment by violent means – that can come across as a little bit ham-fisted.

Where, finally, the story did continue to work for me, therefore, was in its commitment to its world and its sense of purpose. The feeling of suspense in regards to the compliance checks and the escape mission is really believable, and I was interested enough in Anna, Morgan, and the baby to see what happens in it, even when I was frustrated with all the darkness. I may wind up with more complains than praise, but I don't think it is a bad book – it is a dark, well-written one, and it does exactly what it set out to do, although whether it’s more effective or smothering has a great deal to do with your feelings towards all of this darkness.

The Goods:
- Dystopian series with a great concept involving the Zero-Day and Outlier kids
- Scenes of training, the checks on compliance, and escape scenes done well and with a good immediate feeling
- The core of feeling for Anna, her baby, and Morgan, which gives such large ideas genuine human significance

The Bads:
– The constantly pessimistic context possesses so few points of reprieve in the book, which might make the task of reading the book emotionally draining.
– A fairly monotonous, brutally sadistic big bad who might let down those expecting more complex villains.
- Emotional notes that are a little too obvious in their dealing with impact points by stacking too many of them in the area rather than allowing them to be self-evident.

I can recommend “Ten Billion to One” to those who might get some enjoyment out of viewing their dystopia in a darker, more intense, more thought-provoking form. I might find this book to have some more negative experiences to it, I don’t know, I can definitely realize how well this book is put together, how good this particular idea is, how true, how likely, this particular idea involving “Zero-Day, Outlier, and just people who are just swept up in this situation where they are basically just enforcing something that’s absolutely appalling to think about, this situation that Anna, Anna’s baby, and Morgan find themselves in.”

Every book hits differently for every reader.
Thanks for reading my review.

- Corey

[Megan Janae · Rating 4 out of 5]

Ten Billion To One grabbed me from page one and never let go. This book knows exactly how to hook readers and keep pages turning! From the opening scene, I was completely invested in finding out what would happen next, the tension never wavered.

The terrifying world the author has created is compelling and so vivid. You can feel the stakes in every decision the characters make, and watching them navigate this nightmare while trying to maintain their was genuinely engaging.

My only complaint—and it’s more of a wish than a criticism—is that I wanted so much more. Just as I was getting fully immersed in the characters’ lives and stories, just as I was starting to really understand who they were beyond the immediate crisis, the book ended. I would have gladly spent another hundred pages (or two hundred!) getting lost in this world, diving deeper into each character’s backstory, and exploring the nuances of how they interact with and depend on each other under such extreme circumstances.

Ten Billion To One is an impressive, fast-paced thriller that will keep you glued to the pages. I just wish there were more pages to be glued to.

I received an advance review copy for free, and I am leaving this review voluntarily.

[Katherine · Rating 5 out of 5]

Perfect for people looking for a quick dystopian thriller to finish in one sitting.

For being the author's debit novel, I thought it was really good! He captured the dystopian element eerily well. He did have various POVs, but it didn't come off as distracting or confusing. For the most part, we are seeing the story play out through Morgan's POV and we can feel his moral dilemma once he finds out the true details of Zero-Day much too late and how we uses his power as an enforcer to try and correct it. My only critique is that I wished the book was longer. I could definitely see the characters or scenes more developed.

Overall, this was an enjoyable, quick read and I can't wait to read more from the author!

[Mica · Rating 4 out of 5]

Ten Billion to One is a grim dystopian vision that centres around Enforcers one of whom (Morgan) who is less than enthusiastic about his new job. The story builds on a looming event that involves the collection of “outliers” ; those babies unlucky enough to have been born on the wrong side of the countdown. The countdowns together with the branding of babies and the Enforcer - compliance checks, create a sense of impending trauma that some may find disturbing. The book is well written however due to it being a novella it is light on character development. Overall an enjoyable and stimulating read, perfect for a cold winter’s evening.

[Monica Mil-Homens · Rating 3 out of 5]

An excellent premise, but not such a good execution. Perhaps because this is the author’s first novella and there are always points to improve. I picked up this ARC to read because I was captivated by the blurb, after all I am a big fan of dystopias and end of the world or end of humanity scenarios.

I feel like it left me wanting more, that I needed to know more about the characters, more about this world whose masses and rulers want to get rid of children born after the population reached 10 billion people, what led them to be the way they are, and I needed to feel more connected. It is indeed a story with a lot of potential, and I truly hope it gets a continuation, that this is the first of a series of books based on this narrative. The author has potential and I want to read more.

I received an advance review copy for free, and I am leaving this review voluntarily.

[Vicki Stephens · Rating 5 out of 5]

Ten Billion to One is the first book in the Outlier Chronicles Series which takes place in a dystopian overpopulated world which has disaster agent Morgan participating in the Zero-Day activity. He realizes that his world has lied and Zero-Day actually eliminates life instead of saving it. He decides to help Anna and her daughter by helping them to flee to safety. This intense dystopian read has secrets, thrilling suspense, ethical decision making, great world building, and complex characters.

I received a free copy of this book via Booksprout and am voluntarily leaving a review.

[Amy Nolan · Rating 4 out of 5]

This was one hel of a dystopian read.
It was powerfull, to the point and really packed a punch.
The characters were so well written. They were easy to connect to and understand. Even the bad guys had gritt and depth.

ME Tilburn knows how to write a good novella, I read it on mere hours. I couldn't put it down. And the best part there is another book to come, I am looking forward to seeing how the two main characters survive the run.

Thank you Books sirens and ME Tilburn for allowing me to reading ARC this book.

[Shieliene Raines · Rating 5 out of 5]

Dark, quick, and totally gripping

Ten Billion to One pulled me in right from the start. I love dystopian stories and this one was a great fast read that kept the tension high the whole way through. The world is intense, the rules are terrifying, and the emotional stakes hit hard. I was thinking about the characters even after I finished, which is always the sign of a good book for me. If you like dark, high stakes sci fi that sticks with you, this one is worth picking up.

[Heather Strachan-Tilburn · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book pulled me in straight away. It’s unusual for a short novel to immerse you in its world so quickly.
I was desperate to read ahead and also terrified to see what might befall Anna and her daughter. It’s tense, engaging and it feels so real that it brought a tear to my eyes. A brilliant read!

[Bethany · Rating 5 out of 5]

A fast paced dystopian thriller that had me hooked. I read in an a couple of hours because I couldn’t put it down and needed to know where it went and what happened. The characters are very well written that you feel for them, and want to learn more about them.

It’s a tense and dark book that grips you and leaves you wanting more and to explore this style of life as uncomfortable as it is.

[Terry · Rating 5 out of 5]

This was so good.
A countdown to birth & too many mouths to feed. Dystopian and spine tingling.
A quick read, but disturbing in its tale.
It started as it went, no niceties and easy lead, just this is where we are and here we go.
A great fast read.

Taster of next one at the back, roll on that coming out too

[Staci · Rating 4 out of 5]

I have been wanting to read more dystopian books this year and this short Novella really hit the spot. Clear concise, with a wonderful storyline that I can't wait to continue in the next story. What happens when the world population gets too big... How will governments deal with it...

[Jackie Elton · Rating 4 out of 5]

An intriguing premise for a story about an unsettling future world. Will look forward to reading more.

[Liv · Rating 5 out of 5]

⋆｡°✩ Spoiler Free Reviews ⋆｡°✩

This is a dystopian novella, 109 pages in physical format, I saw it on Threads and immediately wanted to read it.

The plot of this one was so fast paced, so immersive and out there. The tension and suspense really clutches you and refuses to let go. I wanted to skip to the end to see how it played out because I was SO worried for the characters.

Despite it being shorter, there is so much character development, scene setting and just overall the vibes and emotions of the scenes were present in a way I haven’t seen in a while!

I’d love to tell you I’m gaining something from writing such a complimentary review but I’m not, I genuinely was just blown away by how well written & engaging it was.