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The Probability of Murder
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25 days and 05:32:31
100 copies available
U.S. only
The wrong answer can cost everything.
When brilliant math professor Ivy Reeves receives a cryptic note bearing her name at a crime scene, she's drawn into a deadly game where probability becomes a matter of life and death.
Thirteen victims. Complex mathematical puzzles. A killer who understands that some games are designed to be lost.
As Detective Vaughn Ryan races against the clock, he needs Ivy's genius to decode the twisted logic behind each murder. But the closer they get to the truth, the more personal the game becomes. The killer knows Ivy's past—the fire that destroyed her family, the secrets she's buried, the father she visits wearing a mask over his melted skin.
Every number has meaning. Every equation points to the next victim. And time is running out.
From New York Times bestselling author J.D. Barker and Patrick Logan comes a pulse-pounding thriller where mathematics meets murder, and one wrong answer means death.
When brilliant math professor Ivy Reeves receives a cryptic note bearing her name at a crime scene, she's drawn into a deadly game where probability becomes a matter of life and death.
Thirteen victims. Complex mathematical puzzles. A killer who understands that some games are designed to be lost.
As Detective Vaughn Ryan races against the clock, he needs Ivy's genius to decode the twisted logic behind each murder. But the closer they get to the truth, the more personal the game becomes. The killer knows Ivy's past—the fire that destroyed her family, the secrets she's buried, the father she visits wearing a mask over his melted skin.
Every number has meaning. Every equation points to the next victim. And time is running out.
From New York Times bestselling author J.D. Barker and Patrick Logan comes a pulse-pounding thriller where mathematics meets murder, and one wrong answer means death.
416 pages, Paperback
Expected publication June 2, 2026
15 people are currently reading
2613 people want to read
About the author
J.D. Barker
49 books7,061 followersJ.D. Barker is the New York Times and international best-selling author of numerous novels, including DRACUL and the wildly popular 4MK series. He is currently collaborating with James Patterson. His books have been translated into two dozen languages, sold in more than 150 countries, and optioned for both film and television. Barker resides in coastal New Hampshire with his wife, Dayna, and their daughter, Ember.
A note from J.D.
As a child I was always told the dark could not hurt me, that the shadows creeping in the corners of my room were nothing more than just that, shadows. The sounds nothing more than the settling of our old home, creaking as it found comfort in the earth only to move again when it became restless, if ever so slightly. I would never sleep without closing the closet door, oh no; the door had to be shut tight. The darkness lurking inside needed to be held at bay, the whispers silenced. Rest would only come after I checked under the bed at least twice and quickly wrapped myself in the safety of the sheets (which no monster could penetrate), pulling them tight over my head.
I would never go down to the basement.
Never.
I had seen enough movies to know better, I had read enough stories to know what happens to little boys who wandered off into dark, dismal places alone. And there were stories, so many stories.
Reading was my sanctuary, a place where I could disappear for hours at a time, lost in the pages of a good book. It didn’t take long before I felt the urge to create my own.
I first began to write as a child, spinning tales of ghosts and gremlins, mystical places and people. For most of us, that’s where it begins—as children we have such wonderful imaginations, some of us have simply found it hard to grow up. I’ve spent countless hours trying to explain to friends and family why I enjoy it, why I would rather lock myself in a quiet little room and put pen to paper for hours at a time than throw around a baseball or simply watch television. Don’t get me wrong, sometimes I want to do just that, sometimes I wish for it, but even then the need to write is always there in the back of my mind, the characters are impatiently tapping their feet, waiting their turn, wanting to be heard. I wake in the middle of the night and reach for the pad beside my bed, sometimes scrawling page after page of their words, their lives. Then they’re quiet, if only for a little while. To stop would mean madness, or even worse—the calm, numbing sanity I see in others as they slip through the day without purpose. They don’t know what it’s like, they don’t understand. Something as simple as a pencil can open the door to a new world, can create life or experience death. Writing can take you to places you’ve never been, introduce you to people you’ve never met, take you back to when you first saw those shadows in your room, when you first heard the sounds mumbling ever so softly from your closet, and it can show you what uttered them. It can scare the hell out of you, and that’s when you know it’s good.
jd
A note from J.D.
As a child I was always told the dark could not hurt me, that the shadows creeping in the corners of my room were nothing more than just that, shadows. The sounds nothing more than the settling of our old home, creaking as it found comfort in the earth only to move again when it became restless, if ever so slightly. I would never sleep without closing the closet door, oh no; the door had to be shut tight. The darkness lurking inside needed to be held at bay, the whispers silenced. Rest would only come after I checked under the bed at least twice and quickly wrapped myself in the safety of the sheets (which no monster could penetrate), pulling them tight over my head.
I would never go down to the basement.
Never.
I had seen enough movies to know better, I had read enough stories to know what happens to little boys who wandered off into dark, dismal places alone. And there were stories, so many stories.
Reading was my sanctuary, a place where I could disappear for hours at a time, lost in the pages of a good book. It didn’t take long before I felt the urge to create my own.
I first began to write as a child, spinning tales of ghosts and gremlins, mystical places and people. For most of us, that’s where it begins—as children we have such wonderful imaginations, some of us have simply found it hard to grow up. I’ve spent countless hours trying to explain to friends and family why I enjoy it, why I would rather lock myself in a quiet little room and put pen to paper for hours at a time than throw around a baseball or simply watch television. Don’t get me wrong, sometimes I want to do just that, sometimes I wish for it, but even then the need to write is always there in the back of my mind, the characters are impatiently tapping their feet, waiting their turn, wanting to be heard. I wake in the middle of the night and reach for the pad beside my bed, sometimes scrawling page after page of their words, their lives. Then they’re quiet, if only for a little while. To stop would mean madness, or even worse—the calm, numbing sanity I see in others as they slip through the day without purpose. They don’t know what it’s like, they don’t understand. Something as simple as a pencil can open the door to a new world, can create life or experience death. Writing can take you to places you’ve never been, introduce you to people you’ve never met, take you back to when you first saw those shadows in your room, when you first heard the sounds mumbling ever so softly from your closet, and it can show you what uttered them. It can scare the hell out of you, and that’s when you know it’s good.
jd
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Displaying 1 - 24 of 24 reviews
March 5, 2026
This review is of an advance reading copy from NetGalley
This is my first experience with this author, but I will be looking at their other works! The Probability of Murder is a grab you from the start, fast paced thriller that will keep you engaged until the last page.
Our FMC is Dr. Ivy Reeves, the youngest tenured math professor at Princeton, who is following in the footsteps of her brilliant mathemetician father, Dr. Eugene Reeves. Ivy is a brilliant young woman who gets pulled into a serial murder investigation that is stumping Detectives Vaughn and Darnell with, you guessed it, math riddles.
There are definitely a few elements of the story that could fall apart if you overthink them, but this thriller delivered on all of the thriller elements you would expect to find-suspense, fast pacing, tension, plot twists, short chapters, lots of action, and let's not forget murder...it is all here. I thought I had things figured out, and was happy to see that I did not. While the ending wrapped things up, it left the story open enough for the reader to fill in their own blanks.
4.5 stars, but I rounded up. If you like thrillers, I would recommend this one without hesitation!
Thank you NetGalley, J.D. Barker, Hampton Creek Press, and Simon and Schuster for the ARC
This is my first experience with this author, but I will be looking at their other works! The Probability of Murder is a grab you from the start, fast paced thriller that will keep you engaged until the last page.
Our FMC is Dr. Ivy Reeves, the youngest tenured math professor at Princeton, who is following in the footsteps of her brilliant mathemetician father, Dr. Eugene Reeves. Ivy is a brilliant young woman who gets pulled into a serial murder investigation that is stumping Detectives Vaughn and Darnell with, you guessed it, math riddles.
There are definitely a few elements of the story that could fall apart if you overthink them, but this thriller delivered on all of the thriller elements you would expect to find-suspense, fast pacing, tension, plot twists, short chapters, lots of action, and let's not forget murder...it is all here. I thought I had things figured out, and was happy to see that I did not. While the ending wrapped things up, it left the story open enough for the reader to fill in their own blanks.
4.5 stars, but I rounded up. If you like thrillers, I would recommend this one without hesitation!
Thank you NetGalley, J.D. Barker, Hampton Creek Press, and Simon and Schuster for the ARC
Review of advance copy received from Publisher
Review Copy
Do you like murder mysteries? Then you will love THE PROBABILITY OF MURDER. The main character is a Princeton math professor whose father was also a math professor. He was trying to prove a theorem when he was killed in a fire.
Warning! This is a very fast book that will keep you going back for more, And it's not over until you run out of pages. There are revelations and turns twisted until the very last page.
I love me some J.D. Barker and am always anxious to read his next book, but this is worth a re-read, maybe taken a little slower next time.
You are sure to enjoy this.
Do you like murder mysteries? Then you will love THE PROBABILITY OF MURDER. The main character is a Princeton math professor whose father was also a math professor. He was trying to prove a theorem when he was killed in a fire.
Warning! This is a very fast book that will keep you going back for more, And it's not over until you run out of pages. There are revelations and turns twisted until the very last page.
I love me some J.D. Barker and am always anxious to read his next book, but this is worth a re-read, maybe taken a little slower next time.
You are sure to enjoy this.
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
This is an advance copy from NetGalley
This was a fast paced, fun thriller that was different than a lot of thrillers out there. It was just a little all over the place, with multiple side stories, so keeping them all straight was a little annoying. The ending also was unsatisfying, though that may have been on purpose if there are to be more in a series.
Overall, enjoyable read
This was a fast paced, fun thriller that was different than a lot of thrillers out there. It was just a little all over the place, with multiple side stories, so keeping them all straight was a little annoying. The ending also was unsatisfying, though that may have been on purpose if there are to be more in a series.
Overall, enjoyable read
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
My Rating: 4⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ this is a generous rating but I do enjoy a bit of J.D Barker!!
The wrong answer can cost everything.
When brilliant math professor Ivy Reeves receives a cryptic note bearing her name at a crime scene, she's drawn into a deadly game where probability becomes a matter of life and death.
Thirteen victims. Complex mathematical puzzles. A killer who understands that some games are designed to be lost.
As Detective Vaughn Ryan races against the clock, he needs Ivy's genius to decode the twisted logic behind each murder. But the closer they get to the truth, the more personal the game becomes. The killer knows Ivy's past—the fire that destroyed her family, the secrets she's buried, the father she visits wearing a mask over his melted skin.
Every number has meaning. Every equation points to the next victim. And time is running out.
Ok so the minute I saw J.D Barker I hit request, I didn’t actually even have to request as such as I was emailed by the publisher offering me a copy of this which I was more than happy to take up!! I loved the 4MK Thrillers and while none of J.Ds books have ever reached those heights for me again he is on my list of I will give it a go.
This is another one where he has teamed up with an author I haven’t heard of and these duos have had various degrees of success for me. This one was pretty good… I liked the story it was unique and something different. Honestly though I think it was tame for J.D Barker. The thrills weren’t as violent as I am used to which is of course ok… but I reckon go hard!! That’s what we are here for 🤣
I enjoyed the FMC Ivy and her secret that I wasn’t entirely expecting so many twists about… that was cool and I did enjoy her little relationship with the copper Detective Vaughan Ryan. There was a lot going on in terms of backstories for the characters and I appreciate that we can get a feel for who they are and why they do what they do.
This was a pretty stock standard thriller, there’s a baddie and there’s a Detective and there is a FMC but the Ivy factor is where it get unique with the maths and the secrets… I liked it.
Will i read more of JDs books… hell yeah I will… I will almost always sign up for his books. The only time you see me sitting one out is when they are supernatural and I always appreciate that they are very clearly labelled no secret ghosts for this gal.
Overall, I don’t have anyone in mind to recommend this too… perhaps you Carol I think you might like it and Kristy… but otherwise if you like the sound of it and you are a fan then give it a go. Like I said they can be hit and miss but this one was mostly hit for me.
Thank you to NetGalley, Hampton Creek Press and the authors for an advanced copy in exchange for my honest review.
The wrong answer can cost everything.
When brilliant math professor Ivy Reeves receives a cryptic note bearing her name at a crime scene, she's drawn into a deadly game where probability becomes a matter of life and death.
Thirteen victims. Complex mathematical puzzles. A killer who understands that some games are designed to be lost.
As Detective Vaughn Ryan races against the clock, he needs Ivy's genius to decode the twisted logic behind each murder. But the closer they get to the truth, the more personal the game becomes. The killer knows Ivy's past—the fire that destroyed her family, the secrets she's buried, the father she visits wearing a mask over his melted skin.
Every number has meaning. Every equation points to the next victim. And time is running out.
Ok so the minute I saw J.D Barker I hit request, I didn’t actually even have to request as such as I was emailed by the publisher offering me a copy of this which I was more than happy to take up!! I loved the 4MK Thrillers and while none of J.Ds books have ever reached those heights for me again he is on my list of I will give it a go.
This is another one where he has teamed up with an author I haven’t heard of and these duos have had various degrees of success for me. This one was pretty good… I liked the story it was unique and something different. Honestly though I think it was tame for J.D Barker. The thrills weren’t as violent as I am used to which is of course ok… but I reckon go hard!! That’s what we are here for 🤣
I enjoyed the FMC Ivy and her secret that I wasn’t entirely expecting so many twists about… that was cool and I did enjoy her little relationship with the copper Detective Vaughan Ryan. There was a lot going on in terms of backstories for the characters and I appreciate that we can get a feel for who they are and why they do what they do.
This was a pretty stock standard thriller, there’s a baddie and there’s a Detective and there is a FMC but the Ivy factor is where it get unique with the maths and the secrets… I liked it.
Will i read more of JDs books… hell yeah I will… I will almost always sign up for his books. The only time you see me sitting one out is when they are supernatural and I always appreciate that they are very clearly labelled no secret ghosts for this gal.
Overall, I don’t have anyone in mind to recommend this too… perhaps you Carol I think you might like it and Kristy… but otherwise if you like the sound of it and you are a fan then give it a go. Like I said they can be hit and miss but this one was mostly hit for me.
Thank you to NetGalley, Hampton Creek Press and the authors for an advanced copy in exchange for my honest review.
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
The Probability of Murder is a sharp, unsettling thriller that blends intellect and emotion in a way that feels both fresh and deeply absorbing. From the moment Ivy Reeves receives that cryptic note at a crime scene, the story takes on a taut, almost electric energy. She’s brilliant, guarded, and carrying a past that still smoulders beneath the surface, and the novel uses that tension beautifully as the murders grow more intricate and the puzzles more chilling.
There’s something fascinating about watching Ivy navigate a world where numbers are her refuge, yet suddenly become the very thing that threatens her. Each equation feels like a breadcrumb, each pattern a warning, and the authors manage to make the mathematics feel eerie rather than abstract. As Detective Vaughn Ryan pulls her deeper into the investigation, the danger shifts from intellectual to painfully personal, and the emotional stakes rise in a way that feels organic and quietly devastating.
The glimpses into Ivy’s past — the fire, the scars, the father she visits behind a mask — add a haunting layer to the narrative. It’s not just a race against a killer; it’s a reckoning with the parts of herself she’s tried to bury. The killer’s knowledge of her history gives the whole story a claustrophobic edge, as though every step forward tightens the trap.
What stands out most is the pacing: relentless without ever feeling rushed, clever without losing its emotional core. The murders are chilling, but it’s the psychological game — the sense that one wrong answer could cost everything — that lingers long after the final chapter.
A gripping, cerebral thriller that balances heart and horror with impressive precision. Perfect for readers who love their mysteries layered, intelligent, and just a little bit haunting.
With thanks to JD Barker, the publisher and netgalley for the ARC
There’s something fascinating about watching Ivy navigate a world where numbers are her refuge, yet suddenly become the very thing that threatens her. Each equation feels like a breadcrumb, each pattern a warning, and the authors manage to make the mathematics feel eerie rather than abstract. As Detective Vaughn Ryan pulls her deeper into the investigation, the danger shifts from intellectual to painfully personal, and the emotional stakes rise in a way that feels organic and quietly devastating.
The glimpses into Ivy’s past — the fire, the scars, the father she visits behind a mask — add a haunting layer to the narrative. It’s not just a race against a killer; it’s a reckoning with the parts of herself she’s tried to bury. The killer’s knowledge of her history gives the whole story a claustrophobic edge, as though every step forward tightens the trap.
What stands out most is the pacing: relentless without ever feeling rushed, clever without losing its emotional core. The murders are chilling, but it’s the psychological game — the sense that one wrong answer could cost everything — that lingers long after the final chapter.
A gripping, cerebral thriller that balances heart and horror with impressive precision. Perfect for readers who love their mysteries layered, intelligent, and just a little bit haunting.
With thanks to JD Barker, the publisher and netgalley for the ARC
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
I picked this up expecting a standard procedural, but Ivy Reeves isn't your typical "tortured genius" trope. She’s jagged and realistic, living in the shadow of a past that literally scarred her family. The partnership with Detective Vaughn Ryan works because it’s built on desperate necessity rather than instant chemistry. They are two people trying to solve a riddle that hates them, and the tension feels earned, not manufactured.
The mathematical puzzles are clever without being exclusionary. You don’t need a PhD to feel the walls closing in as the "thirteen victims" count starts to tick. What I appreciated most was the lack of easy outs. The authors understand that - in a high-stakes game, people actually lose. The pacing is relentless; it’s the kind of book that makes you resent your morning alarm because you stayed up until 3:00 AM chasing a variable.
There is a coldness to the killer’s logic that mirrors our own modern obsession with data and predictability. We like to think we can calculate our way out of tragedy, but this story suggests that some variables are simply chaotic. It’s an observational look at how trauma dictates our choices long after the initial event. If you want a thriller that treats your brain like an adult, this is the one.
The writing is lean and punchy, stripped of the usual genre bloat. Barker and Logan have a way of describing a crime scene that feels clinical yet horrifying, avoiding the "gore for the sake of gore" trap. It’s an intellectual exercise wrapped in a nightmare. My only minor complaint is that the secondary characters sometimes feel like they’re just there to hold the ladder for Ivy, but when the ladder is this interesting, I can live with it.
The mathematical puzzles are clever without being exclusionary. You don’t need a PhD to feel the walls closing in as the "thirteen victims" count starts to tick. What I appreciated most was the lack of easy outs. The authors understand that - in a high-stakes game, people actually lose. The pacing is relentless; it’s the kind of book that makes you resent your morning alarm because you stayed up until 3:00 AM chasing a variable.
There is a coldness to the killer’s logic that mirrors our own modern obsession with data and predictability. We like to think we can calculate our way out of tragedy, but this story suggests that some variables are simply chaotic. It’s an observational look at how trauma dictates our choices long after the initial event. If you want a thriller that treats your brain like an adult, this is the one.
The writing is lean and punchy, stripped of the usual genre bloat. Barker and Logan have a way of describing a crime scene that feels clinical yet horrifying, avoiding the "gore for the sake of gore" trap. It’s an intellectual exercise wrapped in a nightmare. My only minor complaint is that the secondary characters sometimes feel like they’re just there to hold the ladder for Ivy, but when the ladder is this interesting, I can live with it.
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
This fast paced thriller follows a brilliant math professor, Ivy Reeves, who gets pulled into a serial killer investigation after her name shows up at a crime scene. The killer leaves behind complex mathematical clues tied to each murder, and as she teams up with a detective to decode them, it becomes clear this isn’t random — it’s personal.
The whole concept of math being tied into a deadly game felt different from your typical thriller, and it honestly kept me hooked. I’m not even a math person, but the puzzles didn’t feel overwhelming — they just made everything feel more intense and high-stakes.
Ivy was such an interesting main character — super smart but clearly carrying a lot from her past. I liked that her trauma (the fire, her dad, all of it) actually mattered to the story instead of just being there for drama. You could feel how much this case was digging into old wounds.
This was definitely twisty. I predicted one small plot twist, so I had my little “okayyy I see you” moment, but the big twist at the end? That one actually got me. I did not see it going that way at all, which I love in a thriller.
My only complaint is the ending felt a little too open-ended for me. I like closure lol — I need things wrapped up a bit more neatly. But overall, this was fast-paced, clever, and just different enough to stand out.
Thank you to netgalley & Hampton Creek Press / Simon & Schuster for this ARC!
The whole concept of math being tied into a deadly game felt different from your typical thriller, and it honestly kept me hooked. I’m not even a math person, but the puzzles didn’t feel overwhelming — they just made everything feel more intense and high-stakes.
Ivy was such an interesting main character — super smart but clearly carrying a lot from her past. I liked that her trauma (the fire, her dad, all of it) actually mattered to the story instead of just being there for drama. You could feel how much this case was digging into old wounds.
This was definitely twisty. I predicted one small plot twist, so I had my little “okayyy I see you” moment, but the big twist at the end? That one actually got me. I did not see it going that way at all, which I love in a thriller.
My only complaint is the ending felt a little too open-ended for me. I like closure lol — I need things wrapped up a bit more neatly. But overall, this was fast-paced, clever, and just different enough to stand out.
Thank you to netgalley & Hampton Creek Press / Simon & Schuster for this ARC!
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
Things I liked:
The book has short chapters, and the story keeps moving at frenetic pace. I liked reading about the math aspect behind the killings. The twists make sense and are good.
Things I didn't like:
<< Spoilers Below >>
The whole of Zeke's storyline doesn't make any sense. Yes, Zeke is an asshole, and he has uber rich father. Tristan has found Zeke cheating, and he uses this as leverage to steal the laptop?? He has no leverage in the first place. Remember, his father is Richie Rich. He can make simple allegation like cheating go away. But Zeke bends backwards because he was caught cheating thereby escalating to robbery and murder??
Tristan could lure people, steal the cylinders of H2S, orchestrate the whole barn setups, but couldn't steal a laptop??
Reading about 100 prisoners' problem, Penney's game, Monty Hall problem, Prisoner's dilemma was good. But these are all placed into story for "story's" sake. When all comes to end, Tristan kidnaps 3 people and asks Ivy to reveal where she hid the laptop. He could have done this at the start itself. But just because it's "math" thriller we as readers are made to follow these probability puzzles.
In other thrillers, the killer has a reason for killing or torturing people. Here it's simple, get info out of Ivy. So why don't you go after Ivy from the start??
The book has short chapters, and the story keeps moving at frenetic pace. I liked reading about the math aspect behind the killings. The twists make sense and are good.
Things I didn't like:
<< Spoilers Below >>
The whole of Zeke's storyline doesn't make any sense. Yes, Zeke is an asshole, and he has uber rich father. Tristan has found Zeke cheating, and he uses this as leverage to steal the laptop?? He has no leverage in the first place. Remember, his father is Richie Rich. He can make simple allegation like cheating go away. But Zeke bends backwards because he was caught cheating thereby escalating to robbery and murder??
Tristan could lure people, steal the cylinders of H2S, orchestrate the whole barn setups, but couldn't steal a laptop??
Reading about 100 prisoners' problem, Penney's game, Monty Hall problem, Prisoner's dilemma was good. But these are all placed into story for "story's" sake. When all comes to end, Tristan kidnaps 3 people and asks Ivy to reveal where she hid the laptop. He could have done this at the start itself. But just because it's "math" thriller we as readers are made to follow these probability puzzles.
In other thrillers, the killer has a reason for killing or torturing people. Here it's simple, get info out of Ivy. So why don't you go after Ivy from the start??
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
This novel is so stinking good! READ THIS NOVEL!
Glad I could get that off my chest because I have been wanting to type that ever since about 25% of the way through this novel and my opinion never once changed.
This is very much a police procedural with a side of Squid Games. It is deliciously diabolical. One of the things that I loved about what the novel did was that everything made sense. None of this the cat was secretly acting like a dog to get close to the victims to kill them after getting them high on catnip. I shouldn’t have typed that because there are several authors that will think, “That is a twist I have never thought of! I’m gonna use it!”
There was a little hiccup at the beginning, to me. It was like reading the writings of a middle school boy (butt cracks and flatulence, excessive F bombs). Fortunately, that didn’t last long. So if that is a turn off to you, just hang tight and hold on because that rocket ship is about to take off.
Thank you to NetGalley and the Publisher for providing an ARC for an unbiased review.
Glad I could get that off my chest because I have been wanting to type that ever since about 25% of the way through this novel and my opinion never once changed.
This is very much a police procedural with a side of Squid Games. It is deliciously diabolical. One of the things that I loved about what the novel did was that everything made sense. None of this the cat was secretly acting like a dog to get close to the victims to kill them after getting them high on catnip. I shouldn’t have typed that because there are several authors that will think, “That is a twist I have never thought of! I’m gonna use it!”
There was a little hiccup at the beginning, to me. It was like reading the writings of a middle school boy (butt cracks and flatulence, excessive F bombs). Fortunately, that didn’t last long. So if that is a turn off to you, just hang tight and hold on because that rocket ship is about to take off.
Thank you to NetGalley and the Publisher for providing an ARC for an unbiased review.
Read
February 28, 2026416 pages
4 stars
A thriller with a different twist. A young woman math professor from Princeton, with numerous honors gets drawn into a murder (many murders)investigation. Two police detectives who don’t get along.
The murders have a mathematical aspect to them. Detectives Ryan and his partner need Ivy’s help solving the confusing and twisted crimes.
The story is action-packed and the tension is high. The plot is tight and the book reads quickly. Ivy’s relationship with her father is described well. The “accident” that mutilated him is horrific. A very good read. I especially liked the odd relationship between the two detectives. For many reasons, they did not like each other. One seeked redemption and the other didn’t want to hear it.
I want to thank NetGalley and Hampton Creek Press - Simon and Schuster - IBPA Members’ Titles for forwarding this book to me. The opinions expressed in this review are solely my own.
4 stars
A thriller with a different twist. A young woman math professor from Princeton, with numerous honors gets drawn into a murder (many murders)investigation. Two police detectives who don’t get along.
The murders have a mathematical aspect to them. Detectives Ryan and his partner need Ivy’s help solving the confusing and twisted crimes.
The story is action-packed and the tension is high. The plot is tight and the book reads quickly. Ivy’s relationship with her father is described well. The “accident” that mutilated him is horrific. A very good read. I especially liked the odd relationship between the two detectives. For many reasons, they did not like each other. One seeked redemption and the other didn’t want to hear it.
I want to thank NetGalley and Hampton Creek Press - Simon and Schuster - IBPA Members’ Titles for forwarding this book to me. The opinions expressed in this review are solely my own.
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
This book has a very well thought out plot and interesting characters that keep the reader engaged and the action moving forward, but I am only giving it three stars because in my opinion it needed a better editor. There are several instances of small plot holes (e.g. the police finding out Tristan’s real name, the police who at the beginning of the book claim not to understand any of the sophisticated math problems/theories are able to note that 1009 is a prime number, etc.) I will note that these are easily overlooked and the reader is able to follow the story along and that the engagement of the reader is not deeply affected by this. I really enjoyed the main characters and the ending included a nice twist that I did not see coming, which is always enjoyable in the thriller genre. Overall, I would recommend this book to those looking to read a thriller with a lot of action and with a good twist ending.
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
What a great read! I must admit to not being sure if I would enjoy this one. The story started out a little shaky with the use of choppy writing and some very confusing and complicated math statistics, but once the action kicked in it was a whole different ball game. I sailed through this novel at top speed, captivated by its high-octane energy and interesting game scenarios. And the twists!! I would have never guessed. The characters were somewhat lacking in depth; however, the excitement and suspense of the story made up for that. I also liked having the short chapters and switching between POVs. This left me on the edge of my seat, anticipating what would come next and wanting more. This book was fun and I really enjoyed it! Would definitely recommend.
Thank you to Hampton Creek Press / Simon & Schuster and NetGalley for granting me a digital ARC in exchange for my honest review!
Thank you to Hampton Creek Press / Simon & Schuster and NetGalley for granting me a digital ARC in exchange for my honest review!
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
Thank you to NetGalley for the gifted copy!
This was a sharp, fast-paced thriller that blends intelligence with danger in a really engaging way. The Probability of Murder leans into logic, patterns, and cause-and-effect, turning numbers into something genuinely unsettling. The concept alone pulled me in, but the execution kept me locked in.
The pacing is tight, the tension steadily builds, and the story constantly challenges you to think one step ahead. I especially appreciated how the plot balances its cerebral elements with emotional stakes, making it more than just a clever idea on paper.
If you enjoy thrillers that make you think while still delivering suspense, twists, and urgency, this one is absolutely worth the read.
This was a sharp, fast-paced thriller that blends intelligence with danger in a really engaging way. The Probability of Murder leans into logic, patterns, and cause-and-effect, turning numbers into something genuinely unsettling. The concept alone pulled me in, but the execution kept me locked in.
The pacing is tight, the tension steadily builds, and the story constantly challenges you to think one step ahead. I especially appreciated how the plot balances its cerebral elements with emotional stakes, making it more than just a clever idea on paper.
If you enjoy thrillers that make you think while still delivering suspense, twists, and urgency, this one is absolutely worth the read.
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
What a flipping MASSIVE twist at the end!!
I cannot say I understood all the maths in this book. Yes, I know what a Prime number is, I know that numbers occur throughout nature and the Universe, but some of this was beyond me.
Brilliantly written. Well paced, and twisty. Did I mention that twist at the end?
The MK4 trilogy was what attracted me to JD Barker books, and this one did not disappoint at all.
The reader will be drawn in from the first page to the last and it truly is unputdownable.
Suspenseful, emotional, a little gruesome, twisty, short chapters and a terrific plot.
What more can a reader want?
I cannot say I understood all the maths in this book. Yes, I know what a Prime number is, I know that numbers occur throughout nature and the Universe, but some of this was beyond me.
Brilliantly written. Well paced, and twisty. Did I mention that twist at the end?
The MK4 trilogy was what attracted me to JD Barker books, and this one did not disappoint at all.
The reader will be drawn in from the first page to the last and it truly is unputdownable.
Suspenseful, emotional, a little gruesome, twisty, short chapters and a terrific plot.
What more can a reader want?
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
Collaborative Thriller Gold!
This is an exquisite read! Two prominent authors, J.D. Barker and Patrick Logan, have joined forces to create something truly remarkable. Their combined experience and unique storytelling styles make this collaboration especially exciting!
The storyline is engaging and intriguing. What I enjoyed about this novel was the characters’ interactions. They were believable and sometimes witty. The twists in this book were insane. When you think you have figured out who the culprit is, the authors switch things up. I don’t know what inspired these two authors to collaborate, but I hope they do it again. They’ve struck GOLD with this book!
This is an exquisite read! Two prominent authors, J.D. Barker and Patrick Logan, have joined forces to create something truly remarkable. Their combined experience and unique storytelling styles make this collaboration especially exciting!
The storyline is engaging and intriguing. What I enjoyed about this novel was the characters’ interactions. They were believable and sometimes witty. The twists in this book were insane. When you think you have figured out who the culprit is, the authors switch things up. I don’t know what inspired these two authors to collaborate, but I hope they do it again. They’ve struck GOLD with this book!
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
I would like to thank NetGalley for this advanced reading copy.
This one is a razor-sharp thriller that wastes no time pulling you into its gripping web. The pacing is relentless, each chapter escalating the tension and making it nearly impossible to put down. The authors craft a series of twists that feel both shocking and earned, keeping you constantly on edge. What truly elevates the novel, though, is its cast of characters—complex, driven, and emotionally compelling. You find yourself invested in their choices, even as the stakes spiral dangerously high. A thoroughly thrilling read that delivers on every front.
This one is a razor-sharp thriller that wastes no time pulling you into its gripping web. The pacing is relentless, each chapter escalating the tension and making it nearly impossible to put down. The authors craft a series of twists that feel both shocking and earned, keeping you constantly on edge. What truly elevates the novel, though, is its cast of characters—complex, driven, and emotionally compelling. You find yourself invested in their choices, even as the stakes spiral dangerously high. A thoroughly thrilling read that delivers on every front.
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
WOW! I tore through this book so fast my eyes were bleary.😵💫 I read it in one sitting, ignoring texts and emails, racing toward the final page. The plot is convoluted and twisty, leading the reader down one path then completely changing course to another. Several times I thought I had it figured out, but boy was I wrong. The final twist was WILD!🤯 I loved the short chapters with alternating points of view. This format added layers of suspicion with shifting perspectives and subtle clues dropped along the way. I was never really sure who to trust. The main protagonist, Ivy, was likable and I was completely on her side the entire time. If you enjoy psychological thrillers with police procedural drama then this one is definitely for you. I highly recommend that you read this one as soon as you can! A big thank you to Hampton Creek Press via NetGalley for the advance copy. All opinions are my own.
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
I will read anything Barker writes as he's just that good! In this one Ivy is a statistics teacher when she discovers an odd phenomenon where people are dying due to slow leaking hydrogen sulfade gases. But as a professor of numbers, she's even more curious when she realizes it's part of a "game" where each of the numbers--that should be clues--are prime numbers. How are these things linked and why? Prepare for an all-night read if necessary as you won't be able to put this one down!
Thanks to NetGalley for this ARC!
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
The Probability of Murder by J.D. Barker and Patrick Logan. With convoluted twists, complex backstories and fast paced action, Detective Ryan and Mathematics professor, Ivy Reeves work together to solve the cryptic messages left with the murder victims to prevent further killings. Mr Barker and Mr Logan create a unique and innovative suspense thriller that combines mathematical theory with investigative skills to solve the serial killer's murders. Highly recommended.
Thank you to JD Barker and Patrick Logan, Hampton Creek Press and Netgalley for the opportunity to preview the book.
Thank you to JD Barker and Patrick Logan, Hampton Creek Press and Netgalley for the opportunity to preview the book.
Review of advance copy received from NetGalley
This is a review of an advance reading copy (ARC) from Hampton Creek Press, so a big thank you to both Hampton Creek and Netgally for providing it.
I was enjoying the feeling of seeing it coming—until suddenly I didn’t see it coming anymore!
I loved how the narrative misled me several times, with surprises you can only fully uncover at the very end.
I enjoyed the development of the different characters and their relationships. Both the FMC and MMC are great, but the older cop is also an irritating presence that is an absolute must.
Overall, this book was a delightful ride. A must-read for thriller and murder mystery lovers!
For more detailed review, check my my my blog. on publication day.
I was enjoying the feeling of seeing it coming—until suddenly I didn’t see it coming anymore!
I loved how the narrative misled me several times, with surprises you can only fully uncover at the very end.
I enjoyed the development of the different characters and their relationships. Both the FMC and MMC are great, but the older cop is also an irritating presence that is an absolute must.
Overall, this book was a delightful ride. A must-read for thriller and murder mystery lovers!
For more detailed review, check my my my blog. on publication day.
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
Having read some of J D Barker's previous books I was very excited to get to read this and I really enjoyed it. It kept me hooked the whole way through and I was very eager to continue reading to find out what happened next
If you like fast paced, twisty thrillers then I would highly recommend this
Huge thank you to NetGalley, the publisher and the authors for the ARC
If you like fast paced, twisty thrillers then I would highly recommend this
Huge thank you to NetGalley, the publisher and the authors for the ARC
March 15, 2026
4.5⭐️
Well this was a roller coaster. It was incredibly twisty and unpredictable. While I was able to figure out a small piece, I was still surprised by it all. JD Barker never disappoints.
I received this as an ARC through NetGalley.
Well this was a roller coaster. It was incredibly twisty and unpredictable. While I was able to figure out a small piece, I was still surprised by it all. JD Barker never disappoints.
I received this as an ARC through NetGalley.
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
Super fun, pretty smart too, the only thing is that the "twists" became increasingly...forgive me, improbable.
March 17, 2026
I loved how it ended!
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