The other day, a couple of my friends who are currently unemployed but experienced software engineers in the Silicon Valley, lamented to me about not being able to land a senior position in any company now. They were told that their 'branding' is unimpressive and so it is not good for the company to hire them in senior roles. On my travels in Europe, often the managers of hotels where I stay, ask me to post a review of their hotels on Tripadvisor because I am a satisfied customer. They say that reviews are posted mostly by dissatisfied customers resulting in low ratings for their hotels and that they would like me to help them balance it. One can feel the pressure of what the authors of this book call 'the Reputation Economy' acting on individuals and businesses alike nowadays. The advent of social media over the past ten years has put pressure on all of us to become 'phonies' to some extent by trying to 'manage' our image like the politicians or film stars or media personalities. It is a sad state of affairs for humanity if all of us have to behave as if we are on a 24/7 reality show on the internet. But authors Michael Fertik & David Thompson make a convincing case that this is what the future looks like and we better get busy on managing it whether we like it or not.
The book presents an image of the new world in the likeness of a closed village community. In small communities, removed from the larger world, you are constantly under pressure to conform and abide by the rules, irrespective of whether you agree with them or not. Similarly, today and in future, in the world of Big Data and Big Analysis, your online image and reputation are important assets to be created, nurtured and constantly updated and maintained. This may become more important than concrete assets like money and other things. So, we must pay attention to what we do with our phones, laptops, tablets and other net-connected devices at home and work so that they present a consistent positive image. We need to act as though we are being watched all the time. The authors say that in obtaining loans, renting an apartment, finding a job, finding a date or life partner and in many other activities of importance in our lives, it would be the online reputation that would be the tipping point between success and failure. In short, in a DAMM world (Decisions Almost Made by Machines), racking up as many credentials as possible that can be digitized, quantified and measured will be crucial to launching a successful carrier in any field.
In spite of all the enthusiastic arguments of the authors, I am not convinced that we are that close to such an Orwellian world. Silicon Valley is over the top about Big Data and its possibilities. But a lot of social media data is unreliable, irrelevant and biased. In dating sites or job sites, people describe their own personalities, capabilities, goals, likes and dislikes. We all know how objective we are about ourselves but when a computer uses it to generate a composite picture of a person, it runs the risk of 'garbage in , garbage out'. There is also a lot of misinformation on the net on people and brands by their detractors. The book itself quotes a major effort by Greenpeace in successfully maligning Shell Oil through disinformation. Even though Shell managed to clear its name, the information simply stays on the internet and a search still shows up all the disinformation. So, such an excessive worship of Big Data is also harmful. It is what is termed 'Big Data Hubris' or 'Automated Arrogance' in the media.
Another thing about Big Data is that mostly its successes are only touted loudly but not the failures. Let us look at a couple of dampeners. The NSA is an example of this excess in collecting data about everyone in the world from all the devices mentioned above. According to a Senate committee report, NSA could not point to a single instance of preventing a terror act based on the data collected by the pervasive snooping of US citizens. This is because AI has not advanced enough to process all this data automatically to provide real value and it is simply impossible to manually look through it either. So, they are back to looking for some human lead to narrow down the search. In the same way, Silicon Valley was overjoyed when Google search results were put through Big Data Analysis to announce flu trends earlier than the Center for Disease Control did a few years ago. This was widely published, but what was not widely known was that a couple of years later, the same approach failed. Big Data Analysis overestimated the prevalence of flu in the US by more than 50% and over-predicted its prevalence in 100 out of 108 weeks. The obvious conclusion would be that big data, in order to be really an useful tool, must be processed alongside other forms of conventional data analysis. Only by combining them together we get a true picture of the world as it really is. I feel that after all the initial euphoria dies down, the tech industry will gradually come to treating the 'online reputation' with a pinch of salt and take it as just another input in making their decisions rather than leave everything to computer algorithms. As things stand today, if we leave everything to automated algorithms, we are likely to miss out on the Outliers which are the ones that often make the crucial difference. Perhaps, AI would advance far in future that we could depend totally on algorithms to run our lives. But, it doesn't look to be round the corner.
The book is a good read to appraise oneself of where we are today, even though it is somewhat celebratory in tone about Big Data and Analysis. For the average, non-techie, it is even scary to see this future and it may simply turn them all off completely from posting another message on Facebook or Twitter.