Jump to ratings and reviews
Rate this book

The Probability of Murder

Not yet published
Expected 2 Jun 26
Rate this book
The wrong answer can cost everything.

When brilliant math professor Ivy Reeves receives a cryptic note bearing her name at a crime scene, she's drawn into a deadly game where probability becomes a matter of life and death.

Thirteen victims. Complex mathematical puzzles. A killer who understands that some games are designed to be lost.

As Detective Vaughn Ryan races against the clock, he needs Ivy's genius to decode the twisted logic behind each murder. But the closer they get to the truth, the more personal the game becomes. The killer knows Ivy's past—the fire that destroyed her family, the secrets she's buried, the father she visits wearing a mask over his melted skin.

Every number has meaning. Every equation points to the next victim. And time is running out.

From New York Times bestselling author J.D. Barker and Patrick Logan comes a pulse-pounding thriller where mathematics meets murder, and one wrong answer means death.

373 pages, Kindle Edition

Expected publication June 2, 2026

16 people are currently reading
3294 people want to read

About the author

J.D. Barker

49 books7,202 followers
J.D. Barker is the New York Times and international best-selling author of numerous novels, including DRACUL and the wildly popular 4MK series. He is currently collaborating with James Patterson. His books have been translated into two dozen languages, sold in more than 150 countries, and optioned for both film and television. Barker resides in coastal New Hampshire with his wife, Dayna, and their daughter, Ember.

A note from J.D.
As a child I was always told the dark could not hurt me, that the shadows creeping in the corners of my room were nothing more than just that, shadows. The sounds nothing more than the settling of our old home, creaking as it found comfort in the earth only to move again when it became restless, if ever so slightly. I would never sleep without closing the closet door, oh no; the door had to be shut tight. The darkness lurking inside needed to be held at bay, the whispers silenced. Rest would only come after I checked under the bed at least twice and quickly wrapped myself in the safety of the sheets (which no monster could penetrate), pulling them tight over my head.

I would never go down to the basement.

Never.

I had seen enough movies to know better, I had read enough stories to know what happens to little boys who wandered off into dark, dismal places alone. And there were stories, so many stories.

Reading was my sanctuary, a place where I could disappear for hours at a time, lost in the pages of a good book. It didn’t take long before I felt the urge to create my own.

I first began to write as a child, spinning tales of ghosts and gremlins, mystical places and people. For most of us, that’s where it begins—as children we have such wonderful imaginations, some of us have simply found it hard to grow up. I’ve spent countless hours trying to explain to friends and family why I enjoy it, why I would rather lock myself in a quiet little room and put pen to paper for hours at a time than throw around a baseball or simply watch television. Don’t get me wrong, sometimes I want to do just that, sometimes I wish for it, but even then the need to write is always there in the back of my mind, the characters are impatiently tapping their feet, waiting their turn, wanting to be heard. I wake in the middle of the night and reach for the pad beside my bed, sometimes scrawling page after page of their words, their lives. Then they’re quiet, if only for a little while. To stop would mean madness, or even worse—the calm, numbing sanity I see in others as they slip through the day without purpose. They don’t know what it’s like, they don’t understand. Something as simple as a pencil can open the door to a new world, can create life or experience death. Writing can take you to places you’ve never been, introduce you to people you’ve never met, take you back to when you first saw those shadows in your room, when you first heard the sounds mumbling ever so softly from your closet, and it can show you what uttered them. It can scare the hell out of you, and that’s when you know it’s good.

jd

Ratings & Reviews

What do you think?
Rate this book

Friends & Following

Create a free account to discover what your friends think of this book!

Community Reviews

5 stars
36 (43%)
4 stars
35 (42%)
3 stars
10 (12%)
2 stars
2 (2%)
1 star
0 (0%)
Displaying 1 - 30 of 68 reviews
Profile Image for Monica.
726 reviews296 followers
March 25, 2026
As always, Barker writes the best stories!! Keeps you guessing until the very end - 💯 recommend!! Even learn a little math and statistics just for fun! 🤩

Thanks to NetGalley and publishers for the ARC in exchange for my honest review.
Profile Image for Laura Superczynski.
10 reviews
March 5, 2026
This review is of an advance reading copy from NetGalley

This is my first experience with this author, but I will be looking at their other works! The Probability of Murder is a grab you from the start, fast paced thriller that will keep you engaged until the last page.

Our FMC is Dr. Ivy Reeves, the youngest tenured math professor at Princeton, who is following in the footsteps of her brilliant mathemetician father, Dr. Eugene Reeves. Ivy is a brilliant young woman who gets pulled into a serial murder investigation that is stumping Detectives Vaughn and Darnell with, you guessed it, math riddles.

There are definitely a few elements of the story that could fall apart if you overthink them, but this thriller delivered on all of the thriller elements you would expect to find-suspense, fast pacing, tension, plot twists, short chapters, lots of action, and let's not forget murder...it is all here. I thought I had things figured out, and was happy to see that I did not. While the ending wrapped things up, it left the story open enough for the reader to fill in their own blanks.

4.5 stars, but I rounded up. If you like thrillers, I would recommend this one without hesitation!

Thank you NetGalley, J.D. Barker, Hampton Creek Press, and Simon and Schuster for the ARC
Profile Image for Dozelina 666.
326 reviews8 followers
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
March 26, 2026
I absolutely ate this book up from beginning to end.

The whole concept with math, probabilities, puzzles and murder? Yes, yesss please. As a math girly, this was right up my alley and I loved how those elements were woven into the investigation. It made the story feel different and really engaging.

Ivy was a great main character, no complaints there. I also really liked Vaughn and I’m not going to lie… I was kind of rooting for something to happen between them.

The pacing was just right, not too slow, not too fast and very easy to binge. The twists were good too. I had a feeling something was off, especially with the hints about Ivy’s father’s past, but I didn’t fully see it coming.

And now…(aheeem)... about the ending.

Excuse me Sir... but WHAT WAS THAT????

I’m sorry but I NEED to talk about it. I was staring at my screen like ??? that’s it??? I even triple checked to see if this was part of a series because I genuinely couldn’t believe it ended like that. At the same time, I had to laugh in disbelief a little because… wow. I really did not see it coming like that.

So yes, I loved the journey, but the ending? I’m still recovering.

⭐4.5 stars

Thank you NetGalley, Hampton Creek Press & Simon & Schuster Group for the ARC.
Profile Image for Lacy.
64 reviews3 followers
April 11, 2026
Thank you NetGalley, Hampton Creek Press, Barker and Logan for this advanced copy!

If JD Barker writes a novel, I am guaranteed to read it! This was another thriller written in true Barker fashion. The way this dude’s brain works is just mind blowing to me.

Complicated storytelling. Lots of twists and turns that you don’t see coming. Main characters you root for. It had it all. Easy 5 stars.
Profile Image for Jillian.
258 reviews2 followers
March 15, 2026
4.5⭐️
Well this was a roller coaster. It was incredibly twisty and unpredictable. While I was able to figure out a small piece, I was still surprised by it all. JD Barker never disappoints.

I received this as an ARC through NetGalley.
Profile Image for Mommacat.
625 reviews31 followers
Review of advance copy received from Publisher
March 3, 2026
Review Copy

Do you like murder mysteries? Then you will love THE PROBABILITY OF MURDER. The main character is a Princeton math professor whose father was also a math professor. He was trying to prove a theorem when he was killed in a fire.

Warning! This is a very fast book that will keep you going back for more, And it's not over until you run out of pages. There are revelations and turns twisted until the very last page.

I love me some J.D. Barker and am always anxious to read his next book, but this is worth a re-read, maybe taken a little slower next time.

You are sure to enjoy this.
Profile Image for Brittany Wren.
40 reviews5 followers
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
March 4, 2026
This is an advance copy from NetGalley

This was a fast paced, fun thriller that was different than a lot of thrillers out there. It was just a little all over the place, with multiple side stories, so keeping them all straight was a little annoying. The ending also was unsatisfying, though that may have been on purpose if there are to be more in a series.
Overall, enjoyable read
71 reviews
March 29, 2026
Thank you to netgalley for providing me an advanced copy of this book. I love JD Barker. This book was very suspenseful. I thought I had it figured out and was very wrong. I love when it's a surprise. The story was great and keeps you guessing. Would definitely recommend.
Profile Image for Sandra.
280 reviews3 followers
April 19, 2026
Unputdownable

This book starts with 10 bodies and a math related riddle and never stops. Between the plots, the sub plots, the math, and the many multifaceted characters, I found myself reading far later than I should have. Thanks to Goodreads, I got a copy of this book early and I am so glad I did. Nothing in the plot is predictable. The characters, whether the police or the consultants, are beautifully flawed. This book is as twisted as the way math is used to commit murder. The character’s choices both propel the plot forward and handicap it. I kept turning the pages because I couldn’t wait to find out what happened next. I also devoured the book because of the characters. They may be flawed, but as a reader, I honestly liked them all. After I finish this. review, I’m going to reread the book. It’s that good.
Profile Image for Donavon Davis.
15 reviews1 follower
April 29, 2026
Fantastic! I've been hooked on J.D. Barker since the first page that I read of his a decade ago. His standalone books are amongst my favorites from "new" authors and I consistently recommend him to any other book nerds I have in my life. As often as he hits literary home runs with his solo books, I think he has hit a few seeing-eye singles and doubles when it comes to collaborations with other authors not named James Patterson. I don't know the process that authors use when they collaborate with other authors, and I'm sure it is as varied as other human interactions. Lots of give and take, and maybe some compromises to the story or characters that wouldn't exist if it was a solo project. I don't know. Maybe these collaboration books wouldn't happen at all if they weren't collaborations. For that, I'm grateful that he does them. More J.D. Barker books is always a good thing, and I will always read every word he writes (or collaborates on).
This Probability of Murder collaboration with Patrick Logan is a grand slam. I loved the characters. The detectives were immediately believable, the dialogue was exactly what I would expect between detectives, and their progression and actions through the different twists were natural. The other main characters were crisp (no pun intended) and efficient in their development. The reader learned just enough about them to care and push the characters forward, but no extraneous fluff that seems to make the pages drag on.
The story is creative and kept me guessing. I won't spoil the story, but if you are a J.D. Barker fan or a Patrick Logan fan who hasn't discovered J.D. Barker yet, this book is for you. It's a tidy, well developed, exciting collaboration that just works. Whatever formula these two developed together, please keep it going. I've never read Patrick Logan before, but that is about to change. Thanks J.D.!
Profile Image for Aleks.
18 reviews
April 8, 2026
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

This was such an addictive read! The whole idea of probability predicting something as dark as murder was super intriguing and different.
It’s fast, twisty, and really hard to put down—perfect if you love “just one more chapter” books.

Definitely recommend if you’re in the mood for a smart, fast-paced thriller!
Profile Image for Caroline.
80 reviews
March 20, 2026
As usual JD Barker hits it out of the park. If Barker writes it, gonna read it. This book started out with my curiosity peaked and ended with jaw on the floor. Thanks for advanced read.
Profile Image for Joyce.
1,858 reviews43 followers
Read
February 28, 2026
416 pages

4 stars

A thriller with a different twist. A young woman math professor from Princeton, with numerous honors gets drawn into a murder (many murders)investigation. Two police detectives who don’t get along.

The murders have a mathematical aspect to them. Detectives Ryan and his partner need Ivy’s help solving the confusing and twisted crimes.

The story is action-packed and the tension is high. The plot is tight and the book reads quickly. Ivy’s relationship with her father is described well. The “accident” that mutilated him is horrific. A very good read. I especially liked the odd relationship between the two detectives. For many reasons, they did not like each other. One seeked redemption and the other didn’t want to hear it.

I want to thank NetGalley and Hampton Creek Press - Simon and Schuster - IBPA Members’ Titles for forwarding this book to me. The opinions expressed in this review are solely my own.
Profile Image for Karly.
498 reviews180 followers
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
March 14, 2026
My Rating: 4⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ this is a generous rating but I do enjoy a bit of J.D Barker!!

The wrong answer can cost everything.

When brilliant math professor Ivy Reeves receives a cryptic note bearing her name at a crime scene, she's drawn into a deadly game where probability becomes a matter of life and death.

Thirteen victims. Complex mathematical puzzles. A killer who understands that some games are designed to be lost.

As Detective Vaughn Ryan races against the clock, he needs Ivy's genius to decode the twisted logic behind each murder. But the closer they get to the truth, the more personal the game becomes. The killer knows Ivy's past—the fire that destroyed her family, the secrets she's buried, the father she visits wearing a mask over his melted skin.

Every number has meaning. Every equation points to the next victim. And time is running out.


Ok so the minute I saw J.D Barker I hit request, I didn’t actually even have to request as such as I was emailed by the publisher offering me a copy of this which I was more than happy to take up!! I loved the 4MK Thrillers and while none of J.Ds books have ever reached those heights for me again he is on my list of I will give it a go.

This is another one where he has teamed up with an author I haven’t heard of and these duos have had various degrees of success for me. This one was pretty good… I liked the story it was unique and something different. Honestly though I think it was tame for J.D Barker. The thrills weren’t as violent as I am used to which is of course ok… but I reckon go hard!! That’s what we are here for 🤣

I enjoyed the FMC Ivy and her secret that I wasn’t entirely expecting so many twists about… that was cool and I did enjoy her little relationship with the copper Detective Vaughan Ryan. There was a lot going on in terms of backstories for the characters and I appreciate that we can get a feel for who they are and why they do what they do.

This was a pretty stock standard thriller, there’s a baddie and there’s a Detective and there is a FMC but the Ivy factor is where it get unique with the maths and the secrets… I liked it.

Will i read more of JDs books… hell yeah I will… I will almost always sign up for his books. The only time you see me sitting one out is when they are supernatural and I always appreciate that they are very clearly labelled no secret ghosts for this gal.

Overall, I don’t have anyone in mind to recommend this too… perhaps you Carol I think you might like it and Kristy… but otherwise if you like the sound of it and you are a fan then give it a go. Like I said they can be hit and miss but this one was mostly hit for me.

Thank you to NetGalley, Hampton Creek Press and the authors for an advanced copy in exchange for my honest review.
Profile Image for Leanne.
1,170 reviews101 followers
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
March 3, 2026
The Probability of Murder is a sharp, unsettling thriller that blends intellect and emotion in a way that feels both fresh and deeply absorbing. From the moment Ivy Reeves receives that cryptic note at a crime scene, the story takes on a taut, almost electric energy. She’s brilliant, guarded, and carrying a past that still smoulders beneath the surface, and the novel uses that tension beautifully as the murders grow more intricate and the puzzles more chilling.

There’s something fascinating about watching Ivy navigate a world where numbers are her refuge, yet suddenly become the very thing that threatens her. Each equation feels like a breadcrumb, each pattern a warning, and the authors manage to make the mathematics feel eerie rather than abstract. As Detective Vaughn Ryan pulls her deeper into the investigation, the danger shifts from intellectual to painfully personal, and the emotional stakes rise in a way that feels organic and quietly devastating.

The glimpses into Ivy’s past — the fire, the scars, the father she visits behind a mask — add a haunting layer to the narrative. It’s not just a race against a killer; it’s a reckoning with the parts of herself she’s tried to bury. The killer’s knowledge of her history gives the whole story a claustrophobic edge, as though every step forward tightens the trap.

What stands out most is the pacing: relentless without ever feeling rushed, clever without losing its emotional core. The murders are chilling, but it’s the psychological game — the sense that one wrong answer could cost everything — that lingers long after the final chapter.

A gripping, cerebral thriller that balances heart and horror with impressive precision. Perfect for readers who love their mysteries layered, intelligent, and just a little bit haunting.

With thanks to JD Barker, the publisher and netgalley for the ARC
Profile Image for Mana.
927 reviews34 followers
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
March 14, 2026
I picked this up expecting a standard procedural, but Ivy Reeves isn't your typical "tortured genius" trope. She’s jagged and realistic, living in the shadow of a past that literally scarred her family. The partnership with Detective Vaughn Ryan works because it’s built on desperate necessity rather than instant chemistry. They are two people trying to solve a riddle that hates them, and the tension feels earned, not manufactured.

The mathematical puzzles are clever without being exclusionary. You don’t need a PhD to feel the walls closing in as the "thirteen victims" count starts to tick. What I appreciated most was the lack of easy outs. The authors understand that - in a high-stakes game, people actually lose. The pacing is relentless; it’s the kind of book that makes you resent your morning alarm because you stayed up until 3:00 AM chasing a variable.

There is a coldness to the killer’s logic that mirrors our own modern obsession with data and predictability. We like to think we can calculate our way out of tragedy, but this story suggests that some variables are simply chaotic. It’s an observational look at how trauma dictates our choices long after the initial event. If you want a thriller that treats your brain like an adult, this is the one.

The writing is lean and punchy, stripped of the usual genre bloat. Barker and Logan have a way of describing a crime scene that feels clinical yet horrifying, avoiding the "gore for the sake of gore" trap. It’s an intellectual exercise wrapped in a nightmare. My only minor complaint is that the secondary characters sometimes feel like they’re just there to hold the ladder for Ivy, but when the ladder is this interesting, I can live with it.
Profile Image for Paula.
1,343 reviews48 followers
Review of advance copy received from NetGalley
March 27, 2026
Wow, what an ending! The Probability of Murder was a really good story with very good twists and revelations. The story unfolds where every figure and formula could mean the difference between life and death. The premise was unique and intriguing. Math professor Ivy Reeves is unwittingly pulled into a perilous game that is as complex as the mathematical puzzles she teaches. The math puzzles were a bit difficult for me to follow, but they were a clever way to unfold the mystery. The interplay between Ivy and Detective Vaughn Ryan creates an effective dynamic as they work together to unravel the dark motivations behind each murder. The pacing is very good; just when I thought I had pieced together the clues, the authors throw in a twist that completely shifts my perspective on the story.

It was interesting to get snippets of Ivy's past, revealing her emotional scars and personal history. The memories of the fire that changed her family and the lingering impact of her father's trauma intensify the stakes as the killer seems to know exactly how to manipulate her vulnerabilities. I felt the characters were really good, even though some of them I hated (Zeke) and some were frustrating (Darnell).

Overall, The Probability of Murder is a well-constructed thriller that combines intellectual stimulation with emotional depth. With an intricate plot and well-developed characters, this book is a great read for fans of thrillers and murder mysteries. I would recommend this book.

#TheProbabilityofMurder #NetGalley @ibpa
Profile Image for Mia 🌸.
523 reviews
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
March 2, 2026
This fast paced thriller follows a brilliant math professor, Ivy Reeves, who gets pulled into a serial killer investigation after her name shows up at a crime scene. The killer leaves behind complex mathematical clues tied to each murder, and as she teams up with a detective to decode them, it becomes clear this isn’t random — it’s personal.

The whole concept of math being tied into a deadly game felt different from your typical thriller, and it honestly kept me hooked. I’m not even a math person, but the puzzles didn’t feel overwhelming — they just made everything feel more intense and high-stakes.

Ivy was such an interesting main character — super smart but clearly carrying a lot from her past. I liked that her trauma (the fire, her dad, all of it) actually mattered to the story instead of just being there for drama. You could feel how much this case was digging into old wounds.

This was definitely twisty. I predicted one small plot twist, so I had my little “okayyy I see you” moment, but the big twist at the end? That one actually got me. I did not see it going that way at all, which I love in a thriller.

My only complaint is the ending felt a little too open-ended for me. I like closure lol — I need things wrapped up a bit more neatly. But overall, this was fast-paced, clever, and just different enough to stand out.

Thank you to netgalley & Hampton Creek Press / Simon & Schuster for this ARC!
Profile Image for Elisa.
4,502 reviews46 followers
Review of advance copy received from NetGalley
May 10, 2026
As usual, Barker wrote an insanely suspenseful page-turner, so impossible to put down that I read it in a day. Ivy, the youngest math professor in Princeton is drawn into a deadly game about numbers. A couple of police detectives are trying to find out who’s behind it. The solid plot throws twist after unpredictable twist. The protagonists are likable and smart. And there is non-stop action, the characters get into horrible situations that they resolve with their wits. There is also the math. When one of your leads is a mathematical prodigy, there is no way to get around the numbers. Ivy being a professor and the cops being normal laypeople helps with the exposition. The concepts are as complicated as they come, but the way Ivy explains them makes them make sense with regards to the plot. No dry, long-winded explanations here. At the same time, you really believe that Ivy is one of the smartest people in the world, which is a hard balance to find. In another book, Baker wrote how he doesn’t mind his novels being labeled “popcorn fiction.” They are fun and with no deep purpose other than to entertain. No dialogues about people’s feelings, no politics, no preachiness, just the pure goal of entertaining readers. I’d say mission accomplished. I loved it!
I chose to read this book and all opinions in this review are my own and completely unbiased. Thank you, NetGalley/Hampton Creek Press / Simon & Schuster.
49 reviews1 follower
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
March 4, 2026
Things I liked:
The book has short chapters, and the story keeps moving at frenetic pace. I liked reading about the math aspect behind the killings. The twists make sense and are good.

Things I didn't like:
<< Spoilers Below >>
The whole of Zeke's storyline doesn't make any sense. Yes, Zeke is an asshole, and he has uber rich father. Tristan has found Zeke cheating, and he uses this as leverage to steal the laptop?? He has no leverage in the first place. Remember, his father is Richie Rich. He can make simple allegation like cheating go away. But Zeke bends backwards because he was caught cheating thereby escalating to robbery and murder??

Tristan could lure people, steal the cylinders of H2S, orchestrate the whole barn setups, but couldn't steal a laptop??

Reading about 100 prisoners' problem, Penney's game, Monty Hall problem, Prisoner's dilemma was good. But these are all placed into story for "story's" sake. When all comes to end, Tristan kidnaps 3 people and asks Ivy to reveal where she hid the laptop. He could have done this at the start itself. But just because it's "math" thriller we as readers are made to follow these probability puzzles.

In other thrillers, the killer has a reason for killing or torturing people. Here it's simple, get info out of Ivy. So why don't you go after Ivy from the start??
Profile Image for Jannelies .
1,345 reviews201 followers
Review of advance copy received from NetGalley
May 1, 2026
Not my first J.D. Barker and it won’t be my last. And although I never read anything by Patrick Logan before, I think I’m going to check out his titles too.

What to do when you are a woman, a young woman, a tenured maths professor and still a rather insecure person? Ivy Reeves is the daughter of a famous math professor, and she promises to be equally good. She teaches math at Princeton where she has to deal with classrooms full of young man who frankly don’t give anything about what Ivy tries to teach them. Until the day she suddenly, hangover after a long night out, gets an idea how to engage them in a lesson about Bayesian statistics. And it works. Too well, actually, because a video of that class, recorded without Ivy knowing it, goes viral.

This is why Ivy gets in trouble but also why detectives Ryan and Darnell come to her to help them with solving the murder of ten people who all participated, or so they thought, in a ‘game’ to win a Bitcoin. They all end up dead and Ryan and Darnell need Ivy to explain the ‘game’ to them.
Now, how to explain Bayesian statistics to your readers without them thinking this story is ‘too difficult’? Well, read the book and you know how! More mathematical problems come up in this story and I just loved how the authors found a way to explain all this in an easy and sometimes fun way.

Now, the murders are of course not easy and fun, but Ryan and Darnell are able to work it out eventually, with the help of Ivy and a lot of help from other police officers. Both Ryan and Darnell have their own problems to solve and this is also neatly woven into the story. The ending answers all questions and gives the reader an extra twist to enjoy.

Thanks to Hampton Creek Press and Netgalley for this review copy.

Profile Image for Debra .
3,353 reviews36.6k followers
Review of advance copy received from NetGalley
April 14, 2026
You may want to brush up on your math skills, because The Probability of Murder involves mathematical puzzles, a diabolical killer, thirteen victims, a math genius/professor, and detectives trying to solve the case! J.D. Barker and Patrick Logan teamed up to create this shocking and gripping tale which left me guessing.

The Probability of Murder was fast paced, well thought out, wonderfully written, and captivating. I enjoyed the tension, the suspense, the mystery, and the unfolding of the plot. I was shocked by the ending and thought it was very well done. The gist is that a killer has left thirteen victims, and the detectives turn to Ivy, a math professor, to help them solve this case involving complicated math equations/puzzles. As the investigation progresses, things become dire and dangerous!

Thank you to J.D. Barker, Hampton Creek Press, and NetGalley who provided me with a copy of this book in exchange for an honest review. All the thoughts and opinions are my own.

Profile Image for Carrie Gulledge.
232 reviews1 follower
Review of advance copy received from NetGalley
April 15, 2026
This is my first experience with JD Barker and it was fine. I know that Barker is well-loved and prolifent in the thriller/criminal story world so I did go in to this with higher expectations that the book just didn't quite meet.

Overall, fine is the only word I can really come up with to describe it. I didn't really connect with any of the characters and I often found the ways that they interacted and reacted to things to be unrealistic. And the entire story was based off of a series of coincidences and I don't love a story where things coincidentally fall in to place over and over and over again. If something wasn't coincidental, the way that it occurred was very forced and unbelievable (like the TikTok going viral, the way it went viral and how it affected the events afterwards). Some of the writing felt strangely juvenile.

That being said, I did find the story compelling enough to read from start to finish in just a few short hours. At no point did I feel like I didn't want to finish the story. I actively wanted to know how the story would end and for me, keeping me invested until the end is more than half of the story.

**I received an ARC of this book from Netgalley in exchange for an honest review.**
Profile Image for Jeff.
435 reviews8 followers
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
February 23, 2026
This novel is so stinking good! READ THIS NOVEL!

Glad I could get that off my chest because I have been wanting to type that ever since about 25% of the way through this novel and my opinion never once changed.

This is very much a police procedural with a side of Squid Games. It is deliciously diabolical. One of the things that I loved about what the novel did was that everything made sense. None of this the cat was secretly acting like a dog to get close to the victims to kill them after getting them high on catnip. I shouldn’t have typed that because there are several authors that will think, “That is a twist I have never thought of! I’m gonna use it!”

There was a little hiccup at the beginning, to me. It was like reading the writings of a middle school boy (butt cracks and flatulence, excessive F bombs). Fortunately, that didn’t last long. So if that is a turn off to you, just hang tight and hold on because that rocket ship is about to take off.

Thank you to NetGalley and the Publisher for providing an ARC for an unbiased review.

Profile Image for Kelly .
178 reviews5 followers
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
March 20, 2026
Probability of Death was a fast paced, twisty crime thriller that I could have read in one sitting if I had the time. The book starts out with a young man who signed up for a game show type experience where he could win a bitcoin worth about $75K and learns it was too good to be true as the contestants are gassed and killed. The book progresses as we meet the detectives and team that are assigned to this case. Intertwined with this, we meet Ivy, a math genius and professor at Princeton, whose father was terribly burned a few year prior, and is having some challenges with a student who appears to be cheating. As more murders occurs, these path cross as the game shows involve math problems and clues that are part of Ivy's expertise.

I loved the pace of the book as we learned more about Ivy and the police investigation. Both paths had good character development and substories that were engaging on their own. The stories eventually came together as we learned that there was a connection between Ivy's father's work and the motives of the killer. Ended with a bit of a twist and a cliffhanger of an ending which was just perfect for the story line.

I am a huge fan of JD Barker,and this did not disappoint. Book followed some of his common themes with flawed policemen, smart female leads, and clever villains. Thanks to NetGalley and Hampton Creek Press for the advance copy.
Profile Image for Becky Mowery.
410 reviews4 followers
Did Not Finish
March 18, 2026
Thank you to NetGalley for the ARC in exchange for my honest opinion

I made it through about 60 pages or so before I had to stop. I'm flabbergasted J. D. Barker's name is associated with the drivel written inside this book.

First it was:

"Damn you look terrible" Abby gave ivy a hug, crinkled her nose. "smell bad, too."
"Gee, thanks"
"Hey, if I can't tell it to you real, who can? Anyways, you only smell this way when you're stressed. What's going on?"

You only smell this way when you're stressed?!?! I'm sorry, I've had close girl friends in my life but never has my olfactory system been able to differentiate between their calm and stressed musks!! I don't know, maybe that makes me a bad friend!

Then it was:

Delaney had a way of doing that, just popping up without warning. Like herpes or gonorrhea

I'm not a prude or a pearl clutcher by any means but this sentence seems like it was put in for a laugh but it's just crass and unnecessary.

I gave it a few more pages after that for Mr. Barker's sake but eventually came to the conclusion for my own sanity I had to stop.
2 reviews
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
March 2, 2026
This book has a very well thought out plot and interesting characters that keep the reader engaged and the action moving forward, but I am only giving it three stars because in my opinion it needed a better editor. There are several instances of small plot holes (e.g. the police finding out Tristan’s real name, the police who at the beginning of the book claim not to understand any of the sophisticated math problems/theories are able to note that 1009 is a prime number, etc.) I will note that these are easily overlooked and the reader is able to follow the story along and that the engagement of the reader is not deeply affected by this. I really enjoyed the main characters and the ending included a nice twist that I did not see coming, which is always enjoyable in the thriller genre. Overall, I would recommend this book to those looking to read a thriller with a lot of action and with a good twist ending.



Profile Image for Rose.
322 reviews144 followers
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
March 19, 2026
The Probability of Murder by J.D. Barker and Patrick Logan

J.D. Barker is a very talented Author, who is one of my favourites. With this new thriller he teams up with Author Patrick Logan.

The story has thirteen victims, and the crimes all revolve around a mathematical game of sorts.

As with all of the J.D. Barker books that I have enjoyed, this one starts off with a fast pace story, that grips your attention from the early pages.

A math professor Ivy Reeves is brought into the fold of the investigation to help solve the crimes.

Ivy comes from a family of brilliant math experts, as her father was also in that field.

I did have a bit of a struggle keeping the multiple police characters straight at times, since there were several names beginning with the letter D. I had to pause often to keep them straight, but overall a great read

Thank You to NetGalley, Hampton Creek Press/Simon & Schuster, and Authors J.D. Barker, and Patrick Logan for my advanced copy to read and review

4 Stars for me

#netgalley
#TheProbabilityofMurder
Profile Image for Kaceey.
1,578 reviews4,660 followers
Review of advance copy received from Publisher
March 18, 2026
There is a killer on the loose. One who likes to play games…math games to be precise! (Wouldn’t exactly be my first choice of games.)😂
With the body count rising it’s a race against time to solve the puzzle!

What worked well:
Short chapters that kept me reading and suffering a severe case of ‘just one more chapter’ syndrome.
Lots of action, the tension never let up.

A few niggles:
The writing felt a bit different than JD Barker’s usual style. A missed opportunity to delve into the backstories of the main characters.
Also, had a bit of trouble with the names - almost all the male characters names starting with the letter ‘D’: Darnell, Delaney, Devon, Daniels. Seriously, I had to pause multiple times to question my short-term memory and make sure I knew who was who.

✍️ J.D. Barker & Patrick Logan
📄 410 pages
🗓️ Anticipated release date: June 2, 2026
📈 4/5🌟🌟🌟🌟
👉 Thriller, suspense,

Thank you to Hampton Creek Press and Simon & Schuster
Displaying 1 - 30 of 68 reviews