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The Probability of Murder

Not yet published
Expected 2 Jun 26

Win a free kindle copy of this book!

3 days and 14:54:34

100 copies available
U.S. only
Rate this book
The wrong answer can cost everything.

When brilliant math professor Ivy Reeves receives a cryptic note bearing her name at a crime scene, she's drawn into a deadly game where probability becomes a matter of life and death.

Thirteen victims. Complex mathematical puzzles. A killer who understands that some games are designed to be lost.

As Detective Vaughn Ryan races against the clock, he needs Ivy's genius to decode the twisted logic behind each murder. But the closer they get to the truth, the more personal the game becomes. The killer knows Ivy's past—the fire that destroyed her family, the secrets she's buried, the father she visits wearing a mask over his melted skin.

Every number has meaning. Every equation points to the next victim. And time is running out.

From New York Times bestselling author J.D. Barker and Patrick Logan comes a pulse-pounding thriller where mathematics meets murder, and one wrong answer means death.

373 pages, Kindle Edition

Expected publication June 2, 2026

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1604 people want to read

About the author

J.D. Barker

45 books7,036 followers
J.D. Barker is the New York Times and international best-selling author of numerous novels, including DRACUL and the wildly popular 4MK series. He is currently collaborating with James Patterson. His books have been translated into two dozen languages, sold in more than 150 countries, and optioned for both film and television. Barker resides in coastal New Hampshire with his wife, Dayna, and their daughter, Ember.

A note from J.D.
As a child I was always told the dark could not hurt me, that the shadows creeping in the corners of my room were nothing more than just that, shadows. The sounds nothing more than the settling of our old home, creaking as it found comfort in the earth only to move again when it became restless, if ever so slightly. I would never sleep without closing the closet door, oh no; the door had to be shut tight. The darkness lurking inside needed to be held at bay, the whispers silenced. Rest would only come after I checked under the bed at least twice and quickly wrapped myself in the safety of the sheets (which no monster could penetrate), pulling them tight over my head.

I would never go down to the basement.

Never.

I had seen enough movies to know better, I had read enough stories to know what happens to little boys who wandered off into dark, dismal places alone. And there were stories, so many stories.

Reading was my sanctuary, a place where I could disappear for hours at a time, lost in the pages of a good book. It didn’t take long before I felt the urge to create my own.

I first began to write as a child, spinning tales of ghosts and gremlins, mystical places and people. For most of us, that’s where it begins—as children we have such wonderful imaginations, some of us have simply found it hard to grow up. I’ve spent countless hours trying to explain to friends and family why I enjoy it, why I would rather lock myself in a quiet little room and put pen to paper for hours at a time than throw around a baseball or simply watch television. Don’t get me wrong, sometimes I want to do just that, sometimes I wish for it, but even then the need to write is always there in the back of my mind, the characters are impatiently tapping their feet, waiting their turn, wanting to be heard. I wake in the middle of the night and reach for the pad beside my bed, sometimes scrawling page after page of their words, their lives. Then they’re quiet, if only for a little while. To stop would mean madness, or even worse—the calm, numbing sanity I see in others as they slip through the day without purpose. They don’t know what it’s like, they don’t understand. Something as simple as a pencil can open the door to a new world, can create life or experience death. Writing can take you to places you’ve never been, introduce you to people you’ve never met, take you back to when you first saw those shadows in your room, when you first heard the sounds mumbling ever so softly from your closet, and it can show you what uttered them. It can scare the hell out of you, and that’s when you know it’s good.

jd

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5 stars
9 (47%)
4 stars
6 (31%)
3 stars
2 (10%)
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2 (10%)
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Displaying 1 - 15 of 15 reviews
Profile Image for Laura Superczynski.
5 reviews
March 5, 2026
This review is of an advance reading copy from NetGalley

This is my first experience with this author, but I will be looking at their other works! The Probability of Murder is a grab you from the start, fast paced thriller that will keep you engaged until the last page.

Our FMC is Dr. Ivy Reeves, the youngest tenured math professor at Princeton, who is following in the footsteps of her brilliant mathemetician father, Dr. Eugene Reeves. Ivy is a brilliant young woman who gets pulled into a serial murder investigation that is stumping Detectives Vaughn and Darnell with, you guessed it, math riddles.

There are definitely a few elements of the story that could fall apart if you overthink them, but this thriller delivered on all of the thriller elements you would expect to find-suspense, fast pacing, tension, plot twists, short chapters, lots of action, and let's not forget murder...it is all here. I thought I had things figured out, and was happy to see that I did not. While the ending wrapped things up, it left the story open enough for the reader to fill in their own blanks.

4.5 stars, but I rounded up. If you like thrillers, I would recommend this one without hesitation!

Thank you NetGalley, J.D. Barker, Hampton Creek Press, and Simon and Schuster for the ARC
Profile Image for Mommacat.
615 reviews31 followers
Review of advance copy received from Publisher
March 3, 2026
Review Copy

Do you like murder mysteries? Then you will love THE PROBABILITY OF MURDER. The main character is a Princeton math professor whose father was also a math professor. He was trying to prove a theorem when he was killed in a fire.

Warning! This is a very fast book that will keep you going back for more, And it's not over until you run out of pages. There are revelations and turns twisted until the very last page.

I love me some J.D. Barker and am always anxious to read his next book, but this is worth a re-read, maybe taken a little slower next time.

You are sure to enjoy this.
Profile Image for Leanne.
919 reviews91 followers
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
March 3, 2026
The Probability of Murder is a sharp, unsettling thriller that blends intellect and emotion in a way that feels both fresh and deeply absorbing. From the moment Ivy Reeves receives that cryptic note at a crime scene, the story takes on a taut, almost electric energy. She’s brilliant, guarded, and carrying a past that still smoulders beneath the surface, and the novel uses that tension beautifully as the murders grow more intricate and the puzzles more chilling.

There’s something fascinating about watching Ivy navigate a world where numbers are her refuge, yet suddenly become the very thing that threatens her. Each equation feels like a breadcrumb, each pattern a warning, and the authors manage to make the mathematics feel eerie rather than abstract. As Detective Vaughn Ryan pulls her deeper into the investigation, the danger shifts from intellectual to painfully personal, and the emotional stakes rise in a way that feels organic and quietly devastating.

The glimpses into Ivy’s past — the fire, the scars, the father she visits behind a mask — add a haunting layer to the narrative. It’s not just a race against a killer; it’s a reckoning with the parts of herself she’s tried to bury. The killer’s knowledge of her history gives the whole story a claustrophobic edge, as though every step forward tightens the trap.

What stands out most is the pacing: relentless without ever feeling rushed, clever without losing its emotional core. The murders are chilling, but it’s the psychological game — the sense that one wrong answer could cost everything — that lingers long after the final chapter.

A gripping, cerebral thriller that balances heart and horror with impressive precision. Perfect for readers who love their mysteries layered, intelligent, and just a little bit haunting.

With thanks to JD Barker, the publisher and netgalley for the ARC
Profile Image for Mia 🌸.
450 reviews
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
March 2, 2026
This fast paced thriller follows a brilliant math professor, Ivy Reeves, who gets pulled into a serial killer investigation after her name shows up at a crime scene. The killer leaves behind complex mathematical clues tied to each murder, and as she teams up with a detective to decode them, it becomes clear this isn’t random — it’s personal.

The whole concept of math being tied into a deadly game felt different from your typical thriller, and it honestly kept me hooked. I’m not even a math person, but the puzzles didn’t feel overwhelming — they just made everything feel more intense and high-stakes.

Ivy was such an interesting main character — super smart but clearly carrying a lot from her past. I liked that her trauma (the fire, her dad, all of it) actually mattered to the story instead of just being there for drama. You could feel how much this case was digging into old wounds.

This was definitely twisty. I predicted one small plot twist, so I had my little “okayyy I see you” moment, but the big twist at the end? That one actually got me. I did not see it going that way at all, which I love in a thriller.

My only complaint is the ending felt a little too open-ended for me. I like closure lol — I need things wrapped up a bit more neatly. But overall, this was fast-paced, clever, and just different enough to stand out.

Thank you to netgalley & Hampton Creek Press / Simon & Schuster for this ARC!
48 reviews1 follower
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
March 4, 2026
Things I liked:
The book has short chapters, and the story keeps moving at frenetic pace. I liked reading about the math aspect behind the killings. The twists make sense and are good.

Things I didn't like:
<< Spoilers Below >>
The whole of Zeke's storyline doesn't make any sense. Yes, Zeke is an asshole, and he has uber rich father. Tristan has found Zeke cheating, and he uses this as leverage to steal the laptop?? He has no leverage in the first place. Remember, his father is Richie Rich. He can make simple allegation like cheating go away. But Zeke bends backwards because he was caught cheating thereby escalating to robbery and murder??

Tristan could lure people, steal the cylinders of H2S, orchestrate the whole barn setups, but couldn't steal a laptop??

Reading about 100 prisoners' problem, Penney's game, Monty Hall problem, Prisoner's dilemma was good. But these are all placed into story for "story's" sake. When all comes to end, Tristan kidnaps 3 people and asks Ivy to reveal where she hid the laptop. He could have done this at the start itself. But just because it's "math" thriller we as readers are made to follow these probability puzzles.

In other thrillers, the killer has a reason for killing or torturing people. Here it's simple, get info out of Ivy. So why don't you go after Ivy from the start??
Profile Image for Jeff.
343 reviews7 followers
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
February 23, 2026
This novel is so stinking good! READ THIS NOVEL!

Glad I could get that off my chest because I have been wanting to type that ever since about 25% of the way through this novel and my opinion never once changed.

This is very much a police procedural with a side of Squid Games. It is deliciously diabolical. One of the things that I loved about what the novel did was that everything made sense. None of this the cat was secretly acting like a dog to get close to the victims to kill them after getting them high on catnip. I shouldn’t have typed that because there are several authors that will think, “That is a twist I have never thought of! I’m gonna use it!”

There was a little hiccup at the beginning, to me. It was like reading the writings of a middle school boy (butt cracks and flatulence, excessive F bombs). Fortunately, that didn’t last long. So if that is a turn off to you, just hang tight and hold on because that rocket ship is about to take off.

Thank you to NetGalley and the Publisher for providing an ARC for an unbiased review.

Profile Image for Joyce.
1,842 reviews41 followers
Read
February 28, 2026
416 pages

4 stars

A thriller with a different twist. A young woman math professor from Princeton, with numerous honors gets drawn into a murder (many murders)investigation. Two police detectives who don’t get along.

The murders have a mathematical aspect to them. Detectives Ryan and his partner need Ivy’s help solving the confusing and twisted crimes.

The story is action-packed and the tension is high. The plot is tight and the book reads quickly. Ivy’s relationship with her father is described well. The “accident” that mutilated him is horrific. A very good read. I especially liked the odd relationship between the two detectives. For many reasons, they did not like each other. One seeked redemption and the other didn’t want to hear it.

I want to thank NetGalley and Hampton Creek Press - Simon and Schuster - IBPA Members’ Titles for forwarding this book to me. The opinions expressed in this review are solely my own.
2 reviews
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
March 2, 2026
This book has a very well thought out plot and interesting characters that keep the reader engaged and the action moving forward, but I am only giving it three stars because in my opinion it needed a better editor. There are several instances of small plot holes (e.g. the police finding out Tristan’s real name, the police who at the beginning of the book claim not to understand any of the sophisticated math problems/theories are able to note that 1009 is a prime number, etc.) I will note that these are easily overlooked and the reader is able to follow the story along and that the engagement of the reader is not deeply affected by this. I really enjoyed the main characters and the ending included a nice twist that I did not see coming, which is always enjoyable in the thriller genre. Overall, I would recommend this book to those looking to read a thriller with a lot of action and with a good twist ending.



Profile Image for Regina .
448 reviews13 followers
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
February 25, 2026
What a great read! I must admit to not being sure if I would enjoy this one. The story started out a little shaky with the use of choppy writing and some very confusing and complicated math statistics, but once the action kicked in it was a whole different ball game. I sailed through this novel at top speed, captivated by its high-octane energy and interesting game scenarios. And the twists!! I would have never guessed. The characters were somewhat lacking in depth; however, the excitement and suspense of the story made up for that. I also liked having the short chapters and switching between POVs. This left me on the edge of my seat, anticipating what would come next and wanting more. This book was fun and I really enjoyed it! Would definitely recommend.

Thank you to Hampton Creek Press / Simon & Schuster and NetGalley for granting me a digital ARC in exchange for my honest review!
Profile Image for Anniee Bee.
Author 54 books18 followers
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
March 4, 2026
Thank you to NetGalley for the gifted copy!
This was a sharp, fast-paced thriller that blends intelligence with danger in a really engaging way. The Probability of Murder leans into logic, patterns, and cause-and-effect, turning numbers into something genuinely unsettling. The concept alone pulled me in, but the execution kept me locked in.
The pacing is tight, the tension steadily builds, and the story constantly challenges you to think one step ahead. I especially appreciated how the plot balances its cerebral elements with emotional stakes, making it more than just a clever idea on paper.
If you enjoy thrillers that make you think while still delivering suspense, twists, and urgency, this one is absolutely worth the read.
Profile Image for Kelly Veit.
93 reviews74 followers
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
March 2, 2026
WOW! I tore through this book so fast my eyes were bleary.😵‍💫 I read it in one sitting, ignoring texts and emails, racing toward the final page. The plot is convoluted and twisty, leading the reader down one path then completely changing course to another. Several times I thought I had it figured out, but boy was I wrong. The final twist was WILD!🤯 I loved the short chapters with alternating points of view. This format added layers of suspicion with shifting perspectives and subtle clues dropped along the way. I was never really sure who to trust. The main protagonist, Ivy, was likable and I was completely on her side the entire time. If you enjoy psychological thrillers with police procedural drama then this one is definitely for you. I highly recommend that you read this one as soon as you can! A big thank you to Hampton Creek Press via NetGalley for the advance copy. All opinions are my own.
1,996 reviews51 followers
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
February 28, 2026

I will read anything Barker writes as he's just that good! In this one Ivy is a statistics teacher when she discovers an odd phenomenon where people are dying due to slow leaking hydrogen sulfade gases. But as a professor of numbers, she's even more curious when she realizes it's part of a "game" where each of the numbers--that should be clues--are prime numbers. How are these things linked and why? Prepare for an all-night read if necessary as you won't be able to put this one down!
Thanks to NetGalley for this ARC!
Profile Image for Irene.
1,156 reviews15 followers
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
March 3, 2026
The Probability of Murder by J.D. Barker and Patrick Logan. With convoluted twists, complex backstories and fast paced action, Detective Ryan and Mathematics professor, Ivy Reeves work together to solve the cryptic messages left with the murder victims to prevent further killings. Mr Barker and Mr Logan create a unique and innovative suspense thriller that combines mathematical theory with investigative skills to solve the serial killer's murders. Highly recommended.

Thank you to JD Barker and Patrick Logan, Hampton Creek Press and Netgalley for the opportunity to preview the book.
Profile Image for Brittany Wren.
38 reviews5 followers
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
March 4, 2026
This is an advance copy from NetGalley

This was a fast paced, fun thriller that was different than a lot of thrillers out there. It was just a little all over the place, with multiple side stories, so keeping them all straight was a little annoying. The ending also was unsatisfying, though that may have been on purpose if there are to be more in a series.
Overall, enjoyable read
Profile Image for Katie.
10 reviews
Review of advance copy received from Netgalley
March 4, 2026
Having read some of J D Barker's previous books I was very excited to get to read this and I really enjoyed it. It kept me hooked the whole way through and I was very eager to continue reading to find out what happened next

If you like fast paced, twisty thrillers then I would highly recommend this

Huge thank you to NetGalley, the publisher and the authors for the ARC
Displaying 1 - 15 of 15 reviews

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