What If Reform Wins

by Peter Chappell

'Farage is Britain's new prime minister. Nirvana or nightmare? Whatever our reaction, we all need to take this scenario very seriously, as Peter Chappell's invigorating book does'
Anthony Seldon

'a dazzling imagined account of Nigel Farage's first year in Number hilarious, terrifying and totally believable... Spoiler it doesn't end well.' Ferdinand Mount

A compulsive, chilling nonfiction thriller that imagines what might happen if Reform win a majority at the next general election.

At 10pm on 28th June 2029, exit polls predict that Nigel Farage will be the 60th Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. This is the story of what could happen next.

What If Reform Wins is a chilling and deeply researched scenario that takes us day-by-day, minute-by-minute through a world in which Reform has the opportunity to put their policies into practice, from deporting 600,000 people to leaving the ECHR, abandoning net zero and ending the BBC's license fee. How will people fight back against mass deportations and fracking? And will this self-described 'ill-disciplined pirate ship' survive the rigors of government?

Drawing on dozens of new interviews, Peter Chappell, a reporter at The Times, explores a nation on a new and dystopian path.

Genres: Politics, Nonfiction, Audiobook, Speculative Fiction

240 pages, Kindle Edition

Published April 30, 2026

Reviews

[Paul Bryant · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book & this review are strictly for fans of the bizarre twists and turns of current British politics. I mean, where do you start? Gone are the days when we were a beacon of stability in a sea of seething dangers. We have a by-election coming up in 2 weeks which will elect a new MP for that area. If elected (he probably will be) this guy (Andy Burnham) will almost immediately challenge Kier Starmer for the leadership of the Labour Party, and will beat him, and will therefore immediately become our new Prime Minister, the seventh in ten years. And why is this happening when you have a government with a gigantic majority so they can pass any bills and govern happily until the next general election? Well, it’s happening because as soon as Kier Starmer was elected – less that two years ago – he instantly turned into King Midas In Reverse. One horrible mistake after another. And now everyone hates him and the rightwing Reform Party are miles ahead in the polls and everyone expects that the Labour Party will lose the next election and – clutch your pearls now! – Reform might/will/could be/surely not become the next government. The Apocalypse will then follow, according to some people.



The boss of reform is Nigel Farage and he has been without any doubt the most influential politician in Britain for maybe 30 years even though he only became an MP on the same day Kier Starmer became Prime Minister, i.e. not very long – July 2024. But in the early 1990s he began the campaign for Britain to leave the EU at a time when that idea seemed only slightly less marginal than those of the Flat Earth Society. But like a snowball rolling down the side of a snow-covered hill, as the Temptations sang in 1965, the idea got bigger and bigger until in 2016 Britain voted to leave the EU to every mainstream politician’s shock and horror.

Job done! Nigel can now pack up his Brexit Party, knock back a carafe of red and jump on a yacht. But instead he decided to form a new party full of people who, like him, thought that the two main Parties, one nominally left, one nominally right, were really an amorphous liberal blob who ignored the wishes of the majority of the people by importing vast numbers of immigrants into the country – from 2004 net migration has been between 200,000 and 350,000 each year. The famous small boats that have proved so very hard to stop only account for a fraction of this (2025 total : 41,000) but they get all the bad publicity.



That’s just one issue Reform are quite cross about - there's also net zero policies, too many able bodied people claiming benefits, etc. The usual right wing pick 'n' mix.

So this book imagines what happens when Reform win the next election in July 2029 – and they really might! Naturally, it’s a nerdily written, somewhat humorous hatchet job – no surprise, it all ends in tears. For me there was way too much detail about what committee does what, what cabinet secretary has what constitutional powers, blah blah; and there was surprisingly not enough about how Reform would actually stop the small boats and cut immigration.

Spoiler alert – in this scenario Farage and his boys have not fully understood what the EU will do if Britain unilaterally withdraws from the ECHR. The EU retaliates by cancelling the TCA and all hell is let loose. It’s a bit like Trump and his boys not realising the importance of the Strait of Hormuz before they started up that thing in Iran. Surely nobody in a position of power would drop a clanger like that?

Note : the ECHR is the European Convention on Human Rights which stops Britain from deporting illegal immigrants. I knew that. I never heard of the TCA but it turns out that you don’t wanna mess with it.

[Tom Boniface-Webb · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book should be required reading for anyone that thinks Reform’s small minded policies and overly generalised populism is in anyway the answer. They are playing to your insecurities. There is no simple way out of the mess other than small steps forward.

[Lily Gregory · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book was terrifying. But it was such an interesting read. I have become a massive lover of ‘a scenario’ books, and this might be my favourite. Full of so many insights into individuals and how governments work, this book made me even more aware of how delicate democracy is.

[Laura Garcia Moreno · Rating 3 out of 5]

I loved Nuclear War: A Scenario and thought I would love this one too. While it’s in the same vein, there’s much more conjecture and guess work; less policy to be followed as rule and while it not might be off mark it is just a potential. I found the same in Nuclear War when for the sake of a more spicy scenario the President gets lost and can’t speak to his Russian counterpart. So, while I have found this book terrifying in its possibilities, Chapter 4 specifically and also when we actually zoom in on the fact of what might happen to UK-Europe relationships and immigration status if they follow through with the potential policies that they are promising!! I just wanted more of that and it felt too much fictionalising for the sake of a narrative to me like reading Paul Lynch again.

[GEORGE JAMES · Rating 1 out of 5]

Utterly devoid of imagination and dependent on political cliches

[Miles Welstead · Rating 4 out of 5]

Nightmare fuel UK edition. Let's hope this stays in the Fiction category

[Paul Snelling · Rating 3 out of 5]

Interesting in places, and there's some interesting information about what has happened to bring us to this point. But quite a bit of it is just a bit silly

[Curtis Clough · Rating 5 out of 5]

Very scary stuff

[Josh Flynn · Rating 2 out of 5]

There's a funny part where Chappell imagines a completely flooded Bristol. Battered by a storm, Bedminster has become a lagoon, submerged beneath a sewage-infused deluge. So, what's new?

[Oli Ashwood · Rating 3 out of 5]

A nice opportunity to leave our political hellscape, and spend time in a far worse universe.

Some interesting predictions in here, which seem well grounded. Not as alarmist as I expected.

- Dom Cummings advising Reform in Gov seemed implausible but then relatively convincing.
- Once the Reform base turns on Farage (this will happen before the election in my view) then it’ll all fall apart.
- The Reform cabinet candidates are too incompetent to make the change they’re actually intending to - so we’re basically all doomed.

[Mike · Rating 4 out of 5]

Bleak, but entertaining as well. I'm torn between getting out the sackcloth and ashes, and getting out the popcorn :/

[Mark Deas · Rating 5 out of 5]

A very enjoyable fun read and plenty of criticism to what Reform are proposing and the consequences of their actions.

Surprisingly funny too and insightful. At only 225 pages this is a quick and necessary read for anyone who is interested in very current UK politics

[Owen Durning · Rating 3 out of 5]

3 Stars

[Harrison Large ラージ • ハリソン · Rating 3 out of 5]

Reform wins the next election, but the one aspect everyone wants to read about - migration and deportation - gets one chapter and then never mentioned again. I think this book has been outmoded in just the last few weeks, with the scandal regarding the death of Henry Nowak, the attempted beheadings in Britain and ever-building resentment between hard workers and handout claimants (deserved from disability or no).

I found it very realistic, a great but obviously biased look into deeper Reform rhetoric, but other than that entirely unmemorable.

[Kay Westbury · Rating 4 out of 5]

An interesting and entertaining read. This is not a book for someone politically disengaged. You need at least some knowledge of politics and current affairs for the scenarios to resonate. A few of the situations seemed to lean more towards fiction than scenario but I think this helped to keep things engaging. The constitutional chaos that would result from a limpet prime minister raises many interesting questions.

[Isabel Webb Carey · Rating 4 out of 5]

I think this book was a little confused as to what it wanted to be when it grows up. Political dystopian? Academic essay? Biting commentary on the party (lowercase because I maintain that Reform is not a real Party) or critique of the system that got us here?

Either way, the themes were confirmation of my suspicions: vitriolic crackdown on immigration, market manipulation, erosion of press freedom, end to universal healthcare, resurgence of independence movements.

I enjoyed it to the extent that one can enjoy reading about the impending collapse of the country that one grew up in and loves dearly.

[Altus Nina · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is one of those political books where the premise alone creates immediate tension because it doesn’t feel impossible it feels uncomfortably plausible. What I found most interesting is that the book doesn’t seem written as simple political outrage or satire. It reads more like a speculative political thriller examining what rapid ideological change could actually look like in practice once campaign rhetoric collides with governing reality.
The day-by-day structure also gives the concept a strong sense of urgency, almost like watching a slow-motion constitutional crisis unfold in real time. Whether someone agrees politically or not, the idea itself is undeniably compelling because it forces readers to think through consequences instead of slogans.

The reason I settled on 4 stars instead of 5 honestly comes down more to the presentation than the concept itself. After reading the synopsis, the book feels much more intense, contemporary, and psychologically charged than what I initially expected. It has the atmosphere of a modern political thriller disguised as nonfiction, but I’m not sure the current visual presentation fully communicates that urgency or tension to potential readers browsing quickly online.
I almost assumed it would be a more straightforward political commentary book at first glance, which would’ve been a mistake because the concept actually feels much more immersive and cinematic.

I genuinely think a stronger cover direction could help position the book more effectively for readers interested in political thrillers, speculative nonfiction, and dystopian political scenarios.
Definitely one of the more thought-provoking political concepts I’ve seen recently.

[Gary · Rating 5 out of 5]

A Purgative for the Body Politic

As a lifelong Brit living across the Channel, I’ve watched the political evolution of my homeland with a mixture of pride and profound "Remainer" soul-searching. Now, nearly ten years after the Brexit referendum, I picked up Peter Chappell’s "If Reform Wins" after hearing about it on the "Oh God, What Now?" podcast. It is, quite frankly, a horror story—a visceral, phenomenal mapping of the "simple" solutions that lead straight to national disaster.

The book is an unflinching look at the unintended consequences of populism. Chappell masterfully illustrates how slashing environmental budgets or abruptly closing asylum hotels creates a domino effect of chaos. While the scenarios are harrowing, there is something deeply illuminating about seeing these populist threads pulled to their logical, destructive conclusions. It strips away the rhetoric and exposes the reality underneath.

Ultimately, I found the experience profoundly purgative. It cleared away the lingering dread of the unknown and replaced it with a braced, clear-eyed readiness for the future. Perhaps these "horror scenarios" are simply the necessary growing pains of a first-past-the-post system. By facing these dark possibilities now, we might finally find the momentum to evolve into a more representative, multi-party democracy. It’s a tough read, but an essential one for anyone hoping to see the UK emerge stronger on the other side.

Here's a link to an interview with the author, but beware, it has many spoilers included:

https://open.spotify.com/podcast-chap...

[Jake Hancock · Rating 4 out of 5]

I quite enjoyed this book. Obviously a lot of the book is conjectural in nature, such is the entire point of its writing, but it is grounded in well understood historical and political context. I think at the point of this book’s release, there are very few in British politics and on the British left who laugh at the prospect of a Reform government, so this book is to be understood more as a grim prediction of what could well be in store for Britain should there be no effective, organised, and credible alternative in 2029 (or before), than a fantastical and scarcely believable scenario (like the Libertarian Party candidate becoming US President, for instance); this book is far from political fantasy.

I also particularly enjoyed the tidbits of real-life information regarding the relationships between ministers, MPs and civils servants; chapter 5’s mentioning of Grant Shapps’ refusal to read policy submissions longer than two sides of A4 is a highlight. However, whilst often informative, the frequent expositions of civil service and parliamentary procedures do slow the book down somewhat, despite their necessary nature for understanding much of the book’s content and relevance.

Overall, I found the book to be intriguing, entertaining, quite frightening, and somewhat, but not thoroughly, informative. A worthy read for all who struggle to conceive what a Reform administration would look like, and how its potential tendency to cause, and inability to ameliorate crises of all kinds would manifest.

[William · Rating 3 out of 5]

Let me begin by saying I am broadly sympathetic to the view presented by Chappell. I abhor populism, and my personal politics (which you of course do not need to agree with) makes me agree with the idea that a Reform government in the UK would be a disaster.

However, this book is far too partisan for my taste, even if it supports my worldview. The caricaturising of a view that many people have in my country is not something that I believe will help the political discourse. This book feels far more like a supposed confirmation of what people who are already against reform already believe, rather than a persuasive piece meant to change minds. Perhaps I am the wrong audience for it.

The writing is good, Chappell is an engaging author and the scenario is somewhat believable, if hopeful in some ways. I definitely did learn things about UK parliamentary procedure and the checks and balances that we have here, but nothing much. Overall yeah, it’s good but it feels like a book meant to solidify an existing opinion, which is just something that I don’t feel contributes well to the debates being had. 3.3/5, rounded down.

[Mark Cornelius · Rating 1 out of 5]

This book sets out an unwelcome scenario of Reform UK winning a majority at a parliamentary election in 2029. Their anti-immigration policy and their withdrawal from the ECHR have calamitous consequences. Their attempts to reduce taxes and make savage cuts to public spending end in tears. Their reversal of the net-zero policies can’t have any immediate effects, climate change doesn’t work like that. But the reversal is introduced against the backdrop of an environmental disaster hitting Bristol. So it’s a story of bad government from start to finish.

Is it a useful or interesting book? Not really. There is too much on parliamentary and governmental procedure that is a bit boring. The book certainly won’t dissuade the havering voter from choosing Reform. I hated the author’s limp attempts at humour. The prospect of a Reform government is under no circumstance funny, so why introduce jokes. I didn’t feel I learnt much more about Reform’s polices, over and above what a casual glance at the newspapers and TV would tell you. I don’t expect it will spark many conversations down the pub. In case you hadn’t guessed it, overall it is a thumbs down from me.

[James Goodwin · Rating 4 out of 5]

An interesting read that imagines what would happen if Reform emerged as the largest party in the 2029 general election. The book builds from the day of the election and how this will play out based on policy and interviews with people from across the political spectrum.

This was a really quick and interesting read. I liked how the chapters focused on key policies of Reform and how this might be met by those inside and outside of the party. Many of the policies are worrying and the author does a good job to nuance these against perceived support of both Farage and Reform support. At the heart of the book I found it was questioning is it Reform or is it Farage and examines both of these scenarios.

I did find the timing and pacing of the book a bit hard to keep up with on times but overall a great read. Given today is the day Farage has announced he would resign as an MP but then also stand as a candidate it felt timely. A startling but important read that is both well imagined and researched.

[Alexandra Munro · Rating 4 out of 5]

this was a really great read and i suggest anyone even thinking about voting reform in 2029 reads this book. it is done in a way that is less opinion driven and more factual, which may resonate with reform supporters more. the way it is told day by day, & hour by hour, creates this sense of emergency that is absolutely accurate for the current rise in extremist right-wing ideology. i also liked that the leader of the labour party remains unnamed in this novel, as this is completely true to reality in which the future of labour is extremely unclear. it doesn’t get full stars from me however as I would have liked to have seen more of how this government would impact the average UK occupant, as opposed to a following of nigel farage & his minions through passing legislation, creating geopolitical conflicts, & sitting in parliament.

[Roger Morgan-Grenville · Rating 4 out of 5]

Whilst it's slightly full of confirmation bias and hyperbole, the book raises really important questions about the unfettered power of a UK PM (especially when you get one who is clearly not up to the job) and the weakness of the unwritten British constitution (especially when you get ministers who are activated by loud sections of a small crowd.) Whilst I personally think a Reform government would be grim, most of all for those voters they are targeting the most, I suspect that the wilder bits of this book need to be absorbed with a good pinch of salt. Having said all that, well worth the read.

[Ash Bebbington · Rating 4 out of 5]

A horrifying glimpse at what could be to come. Writing any book of this sort is obviously an inexact science (making it difficult to give it the highest rating), but the writer grounds it by focusing on things Reform have openly and loudly advocated for. (Their vague policies on healthcare and education aren't covered for this reason)

What emerges isn't exactly surprising but it is important. Reform are a party wholly unprepared for government and their policy platform would push the constitution to its very limits.

[Matt · Rating 5 out of 5]

Quick read. A fictionalised account projecting what might happen if Reform win in 2029 and how they might use the unwritten constitution to enact their policies. Clearly the author is no fan of Farage or his cohort of ex-Tories but he does paint a pretty horrifying picture of their first year + in office. The underlying theme is that they are deeply incompetent and manage to really screw up the country, even faster than the previous mobs. Puts you off politics really and yet darkly humorous and sort of fun!

[Louise · Rating 3 out of 5]

I don’t know if the book was fully effective as a warning of a Farage-led government. When it works, it works - I loved how the BBC was turned into a government mouthpiece with little in the way of a budget. But it ultimately led to Farage either calmly resigning after everything at best or simply being arrested at worst. Chaos, and maybe there is a point there that Farage is too incompetent to rule, but not chaos we have already seen. Probably would have helped to see a post-Farage Britain. Allow us to observe the long-term damage.

[Jamie Emerson · Rating 5 out of 5]

I listened to this as an audiobook (it’s pretty well delivered by the author, although he’s not brilliant with the accents). I enjoyed it immensely on various levels: it educated me on how the British state works, illuminated some bits of recent history i had missed, and explored its central scenario with wit but also rigor. Some bits were laugh out loud funny but never farcical, and overall it got me thinking more deeply than a straight forward polemic would have.

[Philip Talmage]

You can read, here, the Telegraph review published 23 April 2026 by Lucy Denyer: How a Reform victory could destroy Britain: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/5150...

Here are some of Denyer's remarks:
Chappell – as you might have gleaned – doesn’t attempt to mask his dislike of Reform. ... What he illustrates is definitely a worst-case scenario. ... What If Reform Wins? gives us one version of the future. Maybe it isn’t far from the truth.

[Karen Ross · Rating 4 out of 5]

Terrifying, yet hideously plausible. A well-researched dark fairytale, which takes some good guesses into the near future (eg Starmer not making it to the next election), thereby lending credibility to its Grimm predictions.

Includes the second coming of Dom Cummings, a major city paralysed by floods, another EU/UK meltdown, horrible scenarios of forced deportation, and a last-chance saloon offer of another Scottish referendum.

I feel slightly dirty for enjoying the book so much.