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Baseball Prospectus 2015
The essential guide to the 2015 baseball season is on deck now, and whether you're a fan or fantasy player—or both—you won't be properly informed without it. Baseball Prospectus 2015 brings together an elite group of analysts to provide the definitive look at the upcoming season in critical essays and commentary on the thirty teams, their managers, and more than sixty players and prospects from each team. Baseball Prospectus 2015 contains critical essays on each of the thirty teams and player comments for some sixty players for each of those teams; projects each player's stats for the coming season using the groundbreaking PECOTA projection system, which has been called "perhaps the game's most accurate projection model" ( Sports Illustrated ). Now in its twentieth edition, this New York Times bestselling insider's guide from Baseball Prospectus, America's leading provider of statistical analysis for baseball, remains hands down the most authoritative and entertaining book of its kind.
- GenresBaseballSportsNonfiction
Kindle Edition
First published February 10, 2015
7 people are currently reading
32 people want to read
About the author
Baseball Prospectus
140 books16 followersBaseball Prospectus is an organization that publishes a website, BaseballProspectus.com, devoted to the sabermetric analysis of baseball. BP has a staff of regular columnists and provides advanced statistics as well as player and team performance projections on the site.
Since 1996 the BP staff has also published a Baseball Prospectus annual as well as several other books devoted to baseball analysis and history.
Since 1996 the BP staff has also published a Baseball Prospectus annual as well as several other books devoted to baseball analysis and history.
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Displaying 1 - 10 of 10 reviews
March 28, 2024
I've marked these "nonfiction" in the years I've read them but that's debatable. The marketing on the cover is littered with exaggerations and outright falsehoods. I get that it's marketing, which definitively takes the "this book predicts the future with deadly accuracy, and that's its whole purpose" angle, despite the actual content professing to do no such thing. I'm especially miffed this year on account of the 2014 edition's horrendous Corey Kluber whiff, which I trusted, and which gave me ammunition to commit the particularly disastrous fantasy baseball decision to release him after a bad first month. Only then did he reel off five months of Cy Young pitching to rub it in the face of me and the much-lauded PECOTA system. Which, of course that kind of thing happens, but then the 2015 cover dares to greet me with "Baseball Prospectus 2014 correctly predicted breakouts by Corey Kluber" etc. and I wondered why I read these things.
But it's not actually the predictions that matter.
It's still the best preseason baseball fix out there and I am a junkie and need it. The writing is smart and funny, featuring an all-star cast of the baseball writing universe. Russell Carleton's essay on the overlooked reality of analytics is outstanding and a long overdue admission in baseball nerd thinking that, yes, baseball players are humans and what's correct on paper doesn't always work in the wild.
So as to those predictions, I'll heed the lesson of Carleton's essay. What's correct on paper, that these are statistical mean predictions (no strikingly good or bad lines to be found), doesn't match the sensational marketing and player performance reality of the wild. Enjoy it for what it is, a fun, in-depth season preview and a much-needed February and March baseball fix, and not for what it isn't, which is a magical book of secrets about the future.
But it's not actually the predictions that matter.
It's still the best preseason baseball fix out there and I am a junkie and need it. The writing is smart and funny, featuring an all-star cast of the baseball writing universe. Russell Carleton's essay on the overlooked reality of analytics is outstanding and a long overdue admission in baseball nerd thinking that, yes, baseball players are humans and what's correct on paper doesn't always work in the wild.
So as to those predictions, I'll heed the lesson of Carleton's essay. What's correct on paper, that these are statistical mean predictions (no strikingly good or bad lines to be found), doesn't match the sensational marketing and player performance reality of the wild. Enjoy it for what it is, a fun, in-depth season preview and a much-needed February and March baseball fix, and not for what it isn't, which is a magical book of secrets about the future.
March 7, 2015
Another year, another Baseball Prospectus.
One of the elements in each volume is the PECOTA scores for baseball players. This is a projection of their performance for the upcoming baseball season. It is always enjoyable to see how well the projections perform after a season has concluded.
As a Chicago White Sox fan, I enjoy checking out the PECOTA scores. For 2015? Jose Abreu, after a wonderful rookie year, is projected to hit .295, with 23 home runs and 73 RBIs. A downward tick from 2014. Newcomer Melky Cabrera: .291 with 10 homers and 52 RBIs. A decent year. Catcher Tyler Flowers: .216 batting average (ugh) with 13 homers and 44 RBIs. Pitching? Chris Sale, a pitching star with a throwing style that seems to suggest that his arm will blow out, is projected at 12-4 with an ERA of 2.65 and 182 strikeouts in 156 innings. Interesting to note that he is judged to have a 21% chance of a breakout season, 53% chance of improvement, and 19% chance of a collapse.
And so it goes. It is always interesting to check out, as noted above, the actual performance during a year with PECOTA.
Other interesting features: a listing of the top 101 prospects for the upcoming year (for your information, Byron Buxton of the Twins is listed as # 1). Then, the PECOTA leader boards. Jose Bautista is projected as the top home run hitter with 34, followed by Giancarlo Stanton with 33 and Miguel Cabrera with 31. Sounds a little low to me. Pitchers? Wins: Jared Weaver is predicted with 13, as are David Price, and Felix Hernandez. Perosnally, I can scarcely imagine that the top victory count will be a measly 13. But, we shall see!
All in all, another interesting entry in this series.
One of the elements in each volume is the PECOTA scores for baseball players. This is a projection of their performance for the upcoming baseball season. It is always enjoyable to see how well the projections perform after a season has concluded.
As a Chicago White Sox fan, I enjoy checking out the PECOTA scores. For 2015? Jose Abreu, after a wonderful rookie year, is projected to hit .295, with 23 home runs and 73 RBIs. A downward tick from 2014. Newcomer Melky Cabrera: .291 with 10 homers and 52 RBIs. A decent year. Catcher Tyler Flowers: .216 batting average (ugh) with 13 homers and 44 RBIs. Pitching? Chris Sale, a pitching star with a throwing style that seems to suggest that his arm will blow out, is projected at 12-4 with an ERA of 2.65 and 182 strikeouts in 156 innings. Interesting to note that he is judged to have a 21% chance of a breakout season, 53% chance of improvement, and 19% chance of a collapse.
And so it goes. It is always interesting to check out, as noted above, the actual performance during a year with PECOTA.
Other interesting features: a listing of the top 101 prospects for the upcoming year (for your information, Byron Buxton of the Twins is listed as # 1). Then, the PECOTA leader boards. Jose Bautista is projected as the top home run hitter with 34, followed by Giancarlo Stanton with 33 and Miguel Cabrera with 31. Sounds a little low to me. Pitchers? Wins: Jared Weaver is predicted with 13, as are David Price, and Felix Hernandez. Perosnally, I can scarcely imagine that the top victory count will be a measly 13. But, we shall see!
All in all, another interesting entry in this series.
April 3, 2015
Kicking this year's edition up a star from last year to encourage the movement back towards the diamond and away from the analytics department of the front office. Of course, anyone reading the Prospectus wants the geek part of it, but the reason that matters boils down to what happens on the field. One amusing note: Latroy Hawkins, who somehow or another maintains the closer role with my Colorado Rockies, is now the only player who's been profiled in every edition since it began twenty years ago.
August 25, 2020
yooooo im in 2020
July 15, 2015
We've hit the 20-year milestone in the publication history of the Baseball Prospectus. In that time, it has become a welcome sign of the approach of spring. Along the way, the series has taught us much about baseball, how it's played and what might happen in the months and years to come.
So what do people want to talk about when it comes to reviews on Amazon.com? The layout of this year's book. That's a new one, for this book and almost every other published volume.
Two points do come out rather quickly when taking the quickest of glances at this year's book. It's smaller than the 2014 edition by around 100 pages or so. When it comes to data, this is sort of like going from the Los Angeles phone book to the Dallas phone book. Huge to very big. There are a few players dropped from the sum total, but the 2015 version still has more than 2,000 players ranked. Someone who turns out to be significant might have slipped under the cracks, but the odds are against it. It's not a major problem for most.
Then there's the matter of design. The player capsules have been redone, so that there is less white space between lines and it might be a point of type size smaller. (OK, you try to tell the difference between 8 pt. and 9 pt.) It's a little bit more difficult to read. That's particular true because the line of type goes across almost seven inches of the page. It might work better to make each comments fit into two columns, with a little canyon of white space in between. Yes, it would expand the size of the book, but that could be attacked with slightly shorter comments or moving a few more players into the list of other players covered at the end of each team chapter.
Speaking of those catch-all sections, the type size and leading definitely has been reduced, making it somewhat intimidating to read. Personally, I glanced over the list looking for familiar names, and then moved on quickly. That's not the best idea in a book.
Otherwise, everything works out nicely. The writers obviously know what they are talking about, and there's a major effort to make the writing of each player capsule filled with fun and information. The team reviews, a couple of pages that serve as the introduction to the chapter, are for the most part well done.
The group at Baseball Prospectus have adopted the new statistics that have entered the game with zeal. There are all sorts of figures that come out here, and not just anagrams. There's good information on a variety of aspects of the game, and how that might affect future performance. In other words, there are such things as FIP and FRAA calculated, but they won't hurt your enjoyment of the book. If there's a lesson to be learned out of such work, it's that it's a reminder how athletically we all start declining in the mid-to-late 20s, and a typical player doesn't get very long to prove he should be or can stay a major leaguer.
As I've said before, "Baseball Prospectus" gets read here when it comes out, and then put away for reference during the course of a season. If there's a trade involving prospects, it's a primary resource for background information. It's a must-read for the major baseball enthusiast. Just make sure your glasses are clean before you start reading.
So what do people want to talk about when it comes to reviews on Amazon.com? The layout of this year's book. That's a new one, for this book and almost every other published volume.
Two points do come out rather quickly when taking the quickest of glances at this year's book. It's smaller than the 2014 edition by around 100 pages or so. When it comes to data, this is sort of like going from the Los Angeles phone book to the Dallas phone book. Huge to very big. There are a few players dropped from the sum total, but the 2015 version still has more than 2,000 players ranked. Someone who turns out to be significant might have slipped under the cracks, but the odds are against it. It's not a major problem for most.
Then there's the matter of design. The player capsules have been redone, so that there is less white space between lines and it might be a point of type size smaller. (OK, you try to tell the difference between 8 pt. and 9 pt.) It's a little bit more difficult to read. That's particular true because the line of type goes across almost seven inches of the page. It might work better to make each comments fit into two columns, with a little canyon of white space in between. Yes, it would expand the size of the book, but that could be attacked with slightly shorter comments or moving a few more players into the list of other players covered at the end of each team chapter.
Speaking of those catch-all sections, the type size and leading definitely has been reduced, making it somewhat intimidating to read. Personally, I glanced over the list looking for familiar names, and then moved on quickly. That's not the best idea in a book.
Otherwise, everything works out nicely. The writers obviously know what they are talking about, and there's a major effort to make the writing of each player capsule filled with fun and information. The team reviews, a couple of pages that serve as the introduction to the chapter, are for the most part well done.
The group at Baseball Prospectus have adopted the new statistics that have entered the game with zeal. There are all sorts of figures that come out here, and not just anagrams. There's good information on a variety of aspects of the game, and how that might affect future performance. In other words, there are such things as FIP and FRAA calculated, but they won't hurt your enjoyment of the book. If there's a lesson to be learned out of such work, it's that it's a reminder how athletically we all start declining in the mid-to-late 20s, and a typical player doesn't get very long to prove he should be or can stay a major leaguer.
As I've said before, "Baseball Prospectus" gets read here when it comes out, and then put away for reference during the course of a season. If there's a trade involving prospects, it's a primary resource for background information. It's a must-read for the major baseball enthusiast. Just make sure your glasses are clean before you start reading.
February 23, 2015
Ok, it's like going to a bar after work and hearing thirty angry mathematicians attending a business convention, arguing about statistics, and their local team not getting it and becoming increasingly angry while some guy from San Francisco sits in the background quietly eating peanuts and sipping his beer with a shit eating grin on his face.
I don't know why, but that’s the way it strikes me.
I don't know why, but that’s the way it strikes me.
March 24, 2015
This was about what I expected it to be. Most of the team essays were interesting, and the two general essays at the end were very interesting. The player notes got a little tedious, but they probably aren't really meant to read all at once. This does the job for hardcore nerdy baseball fans but wouldn't have much to offer anyone who is any less than fully dedicated to it.
March 29, 2015
Glad I actually finished it this year before the start of the season. This has been a problem in prior years.
March 15, 2018
Consistently provides high quality baseball analysis
April 4, 2016
I read the annual every year. Every year's addition seems like an improvement on the previous year.
Displaying 1 - 10 of 10 reviews