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Certain About Uncertainty: Build Resilience, Gain Confidence, and Thrive in a Chaotic World

Not yet published
Expected 22 Apr 26
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A Practical Guide to Confidence in Chaos

Uncertainty is not a passing phase. It’s the defining condition of modern work. For many mid-career professionals and leaders, the pace of change has accelerated beyond what their old playbooks can handle. These leaders are skilled, experienced, and relied upon by others, yet they still feel the strain of constant disruption and the pressure to make decisions in environments where the ground never stops shifting.

They’ve tried planning harder, working smarter, mastering productivity tools, and relying on the expertise that once guided them. But these familiar strategies often increase anxiety instead of easing it, leaving them frustrated, overloaded, and unsure how to lead themselves or their teams through the fog of uncertainty.

Certain About Uncertainty offers a new path forward—one built on a learnable set of capabilities John Austin calls uncertainty intelligence. Instead of treating unpredictability as a threat to control or avoid, Austin shows how to build true confidence by strengthening three core, learnable skills: anticipatory awareness, adaptability, and learning agility. These principles don’t eliminate uncertainty rather they teach you how to navigate it with clarity, competence, and steadiness.

Drawing on decades of research, teaching, and work with leaders in fast-changing fields, Austin introduces original tools that cannot be found in other books on decision-making or change, including uncertainty vectoring, situated expertise, and the three translation moments—practical frameworks designed to help you navigate complex situations with clarity and competence.

Inside, you’ll learn:
How to map uncertainty more accurately using uncertainty vectoring.
Why your past expertise may fail and how to update it effectively.
How teams can build collective resilience through situated expertise.
What causes good ideas to break down in practice and how to prevent it.
How to shift from anxiety to capability, even in fast-moving environments.

If you want to feel steady in chaos, lead with confidence, and build the skills needed for a constantly changing world, Certain About Uncertainty will show you how.

218 pages, Paperback

Expected publication April 22, 2026

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About the author

John Austin

2 books4 followers
John Austin is an educator and speaker known for helping individuals and organizations build capability and confidence in uncertain environments. He serves as the dean of the Honors College and the P.D. Merrill Endowed Chair of Business at the University of New England, where his work sits at the intersection of management, psychology, and foresight. For more than two decades, he has supported leaders in industries where change is constant and the future is often unexpected.

A former professor of management at Penn State University, John left academia to launch a company—an experience that shaped his lifelong interest in how people adapt, learn, and make decisions when the path ahead is unclear. After selling the company, he served as a principal at Decision Strategies International, a global firm recognized for its pioneering work in scenario planning. During this time he continued to work with graduate students at Fielding Graduate University. In 2020, he returned to higher education to build and lead new academic initiatives at UNE, including launching both the College of Business and the Honors College. Today, he combines academic leadership with active teaching in executive education programs at the Wharton School, Penn State, Duke Corporate Education, and Georgetown University.

John holds a PhD in organization studies from Boston College and a BA in economics from Johns Hopkins University. His research has earned five Best Paper Awards and has been cited more than 2,700 times. John’s new book is Certain about Uncertainty: Build Resilience, Gain Confidence, and Thrive in a Chaotic World. He is also the author of Unquestioned Brilliance: Navigating a Fundamental Leadership Trap. His writing has appeared in Fast Company, Chief Executive, Inc., and HR Magazine, and earlier in his career, he was recognized with a Best Business Blog award.

John now lives on Peaks Island in Maine with his wife of 30 years and their rescue dog, Lucy. When he’s not teaching or writing, he’s likely running in the fog, hiking coastal trails, or kayaking in Casco Bay.

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Displaying 1 - 6 of 6 reviews
Profile Image for Gerry Aclag.
10 reviews2 followers
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April 13, 2026
Before anything else, I’d like to thank BookSirens for providing me with an ARC of this book.

𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗶𝗲𝘄 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗸
Certain About Uncertainty is a thoughtful and methodically constructed exploration of how individuals and organizations can reframe their relationship with uncertainty. The author’s central strength lies in taking a concept that is often treated as abstract or philosophical and grounding it in a practical, structured framework—uncertainty intelligence. The writing is clear, purposeful, and consistently anchored in real cognitive and behavioral patterns, making the book both accessible and intellectually credible.

What distinguishes this work is its coherent progression. It does not merely describe uncertainty as inevitable; it builds a layered argument; first reframing uncertainty, then diagnosing why we struggle with it, and finally offering actionable capabilities to navigate it. The recurring contrast between childhood curiosity and adult aversion provides a unifying narrative thread that gives the book both emotional resonance and conceptual clarity. By the end, uncertainty is no longer positioned as a threat to eliminate, but as a domain to master.


𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗜 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗸
* 𝙐𝙣𝙘𝙚𝙧𝙩𝙖𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙮 𝙞𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙙𝙚𝙛𝙖𝙪𝙡𝙩 𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙙𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣, 𝙣𝙤𝙩 𝙖𝙣 𝙚𝙭𝙘𝙚𝙥𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣
The book makes a compelling case that uncertainty is not a temporary disruption but the baseline reality of life. This reframing is powerful because it challenges the deeply ingrained assumption that stability is normal and uncertainty is abnormal. By reversing this assumption, the reader is encouraged to rethink how they interpret change, ambiguity, and lack of control.

* 𝙊𝙪𝙧 𝙖𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙨𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙩𝙤 𝙪𝙣𝙘𝙚𝙧𝙩𝙖𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙮 𝙞𝙨 𝙡𝙚𝙖𝙧𝙣𝙚𝙙
A particularly insightful idea is that fear of uncertainty is not innate but developed over time. Children engage naturally with the unknown, while adults grow increasingly risk-averse due to cognitive biases and social conditioning. This insight is important because it implies that our current limitations are not fixed—they can be unlearned and reshaped.

* 𝙐𝙣𝙘𝙚𝙧𝙩𝙖𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙮 𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙡𝙡𝙞𝙜𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙚 𝙖𝙨 𝙖 𝙨𝙩𝙧𝙪𝙘𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙚𝙙 𝙘𝙖𝙥𝙖𝙗𝙞𝙡𝙞𝙩𝙮
The introduction of uncertainty intelligence is the book’s core contribution. Breaking it into three components—anticipatory awareness, adaptability, and learning agility—transforms a vague concept into a clear, actionable model. This structure makes it easier to understand how different skills interact and how they can be developed systematically.

* 𝙎𝙚𝙚𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙨𝙮𝙨𝙩𝙚𝙢𝙨 𝙞𝙣𝙨𝙩𝙚𝙖𝙙 𝙤𝙛 𝙞𝙨𝙤𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙙 𝙚𝙫𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙨
The emphasis on systems thinking highlights how most failures in uncertain environments stem from misinterpreting complexity. By learning to see patterns, feedback loops, and interdependencies, one gains a deeper and more accurate understanding of how change unfolds over time.

* 𝙂𝙧𝙤𝙬𝙩𝙝 𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙚𝙨 𝙛𝙧𝙤𝙢 𝙚𝙣𝙜𝙖𝙜𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙬𝙞𝙩𝙝 𝙪𝙣𝙘𝙚𝙧𝙩𝙖𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙮, 𝙣𝙤𝙩 𝙖𝙫𝙤𝙞𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙞𝙩
Perhaps the most practical takeaway is that progress depends on actively engaging with uncertainty. Avoidance leads to rigidity and missed opportunities, while deliberate exposure builds adaptability, resilience, and insight. The book consistently reinforces that improvement comes through practice, not theory alone.


𝗠𝘆 𝗳𝗮𝘃𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗲 𝟯 𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗸
1. “Uncertainty isn’t a temporary inconvenience we’ll eventually solve—it’s the permanent condition of being alive.”
2. “We mistake stability for safety, knowing for wisdom, control for competence.”
3. “The goal isn’t to eliminate the fog, but to learn how to move through it.”

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗜 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝗹𝗲𝘀𝘀
While the framework of uncertainty intelligence is clear and compelling, the book occasionally leans heavily on conceptual explanation over concrete, diverse examples. At times, additional real-world case variety could have strengthened the practical application of the ideas.

Additionally, the three core capabilities—while well-defined—can feel somewhat repetitive in their presentation across chapters, with similar themes revisited from slightly different angles. A tighter consolidation in later chapters might have improved pacing and reduced redundancy.

𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 (𝟱)
This is a high-quality, well-structured non-fiction work that succeeds in both reframing a fundamental concept and offering a usable framework for improvement. The clarity of thought, consistency of argument, and practical orientation justify a strong rating.

It falls just short of an outstanding score due to minor repetition and a desire for more varied real-world illustrations. However, these are relatively small limitations in an otherwise insightful and highly applicable book.

𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴: 𝟱/𝟱
1 review
Review of advance copy received from Author
March 29, 2026
A Framework for Thriving in the Fog

Dr. John Austin's Certain About Uncertainty arrives at exactly the right moment.

As a scholar-practitioner whose own work focuses on needfinding, human-centered design, and person-centered planning, I found myself nodding in affirmation throughout this book, not just as a reader, but as someone who has spent decades inside the very uncertainty Austin describes so clearly and so honestly.

Austin's central argument, that uncertainty is not a problem to be solved but a capacity to be developed, resonates deeply with my own research and lived experience. His framework of Uncertainty Intelligence, built on anticipatory awareness, adaptability, and learning agility, gives language and structure to something I have observed repeatedly in my professional work: that the people and families who navigate complex systems most effectively are not the ones who have eliminated uncertainty from their lives. They are the ones who have learned to move within it.

The passage that stayed with me most: the gift hidden in uncertainty only becomes visible when we stop fighting it. That uncertainty is where life happens. That the most meaningful lives unfold through navigating the unknown together. That sentence captures something I have been trying to articulate in my own work, that becoming is not a solo act, and that the uncertainty we fear most is often the very terrain through which our most significant growth occurs and where opportunity lives.

Austin writes with the rare combination of scholarly rigor and personal warmth that makes complex ideas feel both credible and accessible. His exercises are practical without being prescriptive. His framework is grounded in research without feeling clinical. And his own voice — the ten-year-old exploring the woods, the lifeguard watching children build sandcastles — reminds the reader throughout that this is not just theory. It is lived.

I recommend this book to anyone navigating professional transitions, leading teams through change, or simply trying to find their footing in a world that refuses to hold still. It pairs beautifully with work in adult learning, organizational development, and person-centered practice, and it will find its way onto my recommended reading list for the Life by Design community I am building.
Certain About Uncertainty does not promise to eliminate the fog. It teaches you to move through it with confidence, curiosity, and community.

That is exactly what we need right now. (I received an advance copy and am voluntarily reviewing.)
1 review
Review of advance copy received from Author
April 10, 2026
I received a complimentary copy of this book and am voluntarily leaving an honest review.

In Certain About Uncertainty, John Austin offers a compelling reframe: uncertainty is not a temporary disruption to overcome, but a permanent condition we must learn to navigate.
What makes this book stand out is its focus on building capability rather than chasing control. The concept of “uncertainty intelligence” provides a practical and accessible way to think about decision-making when clarity is limited and outcomes are unknown. The frameworks—such as anticipatory awareness and adaptability—give language to experiences many of us are already having, especially in times of transition or complexity.
While some of the ideas may take time to fully absorb, the book rewards reflection. It doesn’t offer quick fixes or false certainty. Instead, it helps readers develop a more grounded and flexible way of engaging with the unknown.

This is a valuable read for professionals, leaders, and anyone navigating change. It shifts the question from “How do I eliminate uncertainty?” to something more useful: “How do I function well within it?”

Deb Bucci, PhD
1 review
Review of advance copy received from Author
April 1, 2026
This is an insightful and timely book for anyone trying to make sense of today’s rapidly shifting world. Dr. John Austin brings his deep expertise in strategy, leadership, and organizational change, shaped through his work with executives at The Wharton School and Duke Corporate Education, to introduce the powerful idea of Uncertainty Intelligence.

What makes this book stand out is its balance of thoughtful theory and practical tools. From recognizing weak signals of change to building adaptive teams and future-focused decision making, it provides readers with a clear framework for turning uncertainty from a source of anxiety into a strategic advantage.

Having had the privilege of working alongside the Dr. Austin, I have seen firsthand the depth of insight and curiosity he brings to his work. This book reflects that same wisdom and generosity, offering readers a compelling guide for navigating the fog of the future with confidence.
Profile Image for Michele Bianchi.
4 reviews2 followers
Review of advance copy
April 13, 2026
"Certain About Uncertainty" presents a clear and useful way to think about navigating change. The idea that uncertainty is something to work with—not avoid—comes through strongly, and the framework around building awareness, adaptability, and learning agility is practical and easy to grasp.

At times, the book leans a bit too heavily on reinforcing its core ideas. The repetition feels intentional, but it doesn’t always add new depth, and the overall argument could have been more tightly delivered.

That said, the message is grounded and worthwhile. It’s a solid, thoughtful read—especially for anyone looking for a steady, realistic approach to dealing with uncertainty.

I received an advance review copy for free, and I am leaving this review voluntarily. received an advance review copy for free, and I am leaving this review voluntarily.
Profile Image for Pranav Bhatnagar.
19 reviews
Review of advance copy received from Publisher
March 30, 2026
This book surprised me in a good way. I expected something heavy and theoretical, but it actually felt very real and relatable. The way it explains uncertainty through simple stories and examples made me reflect on how much we try to control things that were never meant to be controlled.

Nonetheless idea of “uncertainty intelligence” really stayed with me. It’s not just about dealing with problems, it’s about thinking differently and becoming more adaptable. Some parts felt a bit long, but the overall message is strong and useful.

Final Verdict…

Not just a book you read… one that quietly changes how you think.
Displaying 1 - 6 of 6 reviews