The Hidden Game of Baseball: A Revolutionary Approach to Baseball and Its Statistics

by John Thorn, Pete Palmer (Introduction), Keith Law (Foreword)

The acclaimed classic on the statistical analysis of baseball records in order to evaluate players and win more games.Long before Moneyball became a sensation or Nate Silver turned the knowledge he’d honed on baseball into electoral gold, John Thorn and Pete Palmer were using statistics to shake the foundations of the game. First published in 1984, The Hidden Game of Baseball ushered in the sabermetric revolution by demonstrating that we were thinking about baseball stats—and thus the game itself—all wrong. Instead of praising sluggers for gaudy RBI totals or pitchers for wins, Thorn and Palmer argued in favor of more subtle measurements that correlated much more closely to the ultimate winning baseball games.The new gospel promulgated by Thorn and Palmer opened the door for a flood of new questions, such as how a ballpark’s layout helps or hinders offense or whether a strikeout really is worse than another kind of out. Taking questions like these seriously—and backing up the answers with data—launched a new era, showing fans, journalists, scouts, executives, and even players themselves a new, better way to look at the game.This brand-new edition retains the body of the original, with its rich, accessible analysis rooted in a deep love of baseball, while adding a new introduction by the authors tracing the book’s influence over the years. A foreword by ESPN’s lead baseball analyst, Keith Law, details The Hidden Game’s central role in the transformation of baseball coverage and team management and shows how teams continue to reap the benefits of Thorn and Palmer’s insights today. Thirty years after its original publication, The Hidden Game is still bringing the high heat—a true classic of baseball literature.Praise for The Hidden Game“As grateful as I was for the publication of The Hidden Game of Baseball when it first showed up on my bookshelf, I’m even more grateful now. It’s as insightful today as it was then. And it’s a reminder that we haven’t applauded Thorn and Palmer nearly loudly enough for their incredible contributions to the use and understanding of the awesome numbers of baseball.” —Jayson Stark, senior baseball writer, ESPN.com“Just as one cannot know the great American novel without Twain and Hemingway, one cannot know modern baseball analysis without Thorn and Palmer.” —Rob Neyer, FOX Sports

Genres: Baseball, Sports, Nonfiction

549 pages, Kindle Edition

First published January 1, 1984

About the author

John Thorn has been the official historian for Major League Baseball since 2011.

Reviews

[Steve · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is Bill James on steroids. Examples where James would take averages to test theories, Thorn and Palmer would run multivariate regressions. It was the scientific next step in Sabermetric research. I wished at the time I read this that it was my dissertation topic. It was well before Moneyball, Billy Beane and the man he dubbed “The Greek God of Walks”, Kevin Youkilis. Back then the precise value of a walk with one out and a man on first was not well known. But thanks to the authors with their Expected Runs Matrix giving us the average number of runs we’d anticipate from every situation (like 2 outs, runners on first and third), stats guys like me could bore people even longer between pitches and beers.

[Ron]

One of my favorite baseball books. It talks extensively about how the batting order doesn't really matter. They have proved this with a baseball simulation game. While I understand what they are getting at, I wonder about the validity of making conclusions based on a simulation game. I remember when the Yankees had Reggie Jackson and he was in a batting slump. It was thought that he was essentially pouting because they wanted him to bat in a different position instead of his usual clean up spot. When they finally acquiesced and put him in the clean up spot, Jackson broke out of his slump and proved to actually be "the straw that stirs the drink." To me, it meant that he actually was pouting until he got his way, indicating that to him, the batting order did indeed mean something. And, because of this, I question the validity of gaining conclusions based upon the outcome of a baseball simulation game. The "players" in a simulation game have no preconceived notion of where they are batting in the order. Real players often do.

[Clay Kallam · Rating 4 out of 5]

"The Hidden Game of Baseball" was written in 1984, one of the first truly analytic looks at the game and surprisingly, much that was revealed for the first time here is still relevant, and often not that well understood.

So for anyone whose familiarity with sabrmetrics (based on the name The Society for American Baseball Resarch, or SABR) begins and ends with "Moneyball," "The Hidden Game of Baseball" is an excellent starting point. The math is relatively easy to grasp, and though some of the formulas have changed dramatically, the concepts remain the same.

Today, unfortunately, much of the most advanced work is proprietary, developed and applied by Ivy Leaguers who work for baseball teams who have no desire to give up any advantage, no matter how small. Still, baseball fans who want to understand what's going on behind the obvious will find the curtain drawn back by the analysis in "The Hidden Game of Baseball."

[Don · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book, written in the 1980s, is kind of the beginning of advanced statistics in baseball, utilized to better measure player performance. Perhaps because I read a lot of baseball information and thus was more familiar with the statistics in question and how they were developed, the book didn't provide any profound insights into better understanding. That said, the book was well written, I found it interesting, if for nothing else, as a historical time capsule of sorts - to see how the debate over the statistics was framed thirty years ago, and not what has changed and what hasn't. The book is for people that love baseball and want to not only understand statistics better, but want to better understand the game itself, and how to measure and judge performance.

[Dick Hamilton · Rating 4 out of 5]

While I greatly enjoyed the book, the one complaint that I have, and the thing the made the Bill James Baseball Abstracts so enjoyable, was that James employed a rhetorical flourish that made the numbers come alive. Most would guess that Babe Ruth, if not the top player, would be near the top of any ranking. What I most enjoy is the vivid commentary that James employed in his books and I find this to be less evident from Thorn. I want the story with the numbers.

[Urito · Rating 5 out of 5]

One of my favorite books of all time. I read it when I was 15 or 16 and it changed my life. Very accessibly and engagingly written.

The book was my introduction to statistics and a motivator to study it. I set about trying to do similar analysis for my favorite sport, hockey, back before the internet or graphical interfaces, using notepads, LOTUS 1-2-3, and The Sporting News annual magazines.

[William · Rating 5 out of 5]

A treasure trove of facts on baseball.

Very much enjoyed reading about so many great MLB players, including our neighbor Ken Sanders.

[Cal Davenport · Rating 5 out of 5]

All time Sabermetrics classic that is well written.

[Kevin West · Rating 3 out of 5]

Insightful, yet dully presented.

[Elle Hayden · Rating 5 out of 5]

Amazing Analysis

I love baseball. This book was a complicated read but thoroughly enjoyable. Of course, it helps that I also love statistics in all of their glory.

[Greg · Rating 4 out of 5]

Thorough study of baseball players using statistical methods that remain uncommon over 30 years after the book was written. Ground-breaking at the time and still relatively unconventional today. I would have enjoyed my college statistics class much more with this as the textbook.

[Gary Geiger · Rating 4 out of 5]

One of the granddaddys of sabermetrics, this book is. The fielding formulas aren't useful, but the framework for Batting Runs in this book is one of the best things ever in baseball analytics.

[Harrison · Rating 5 out of 5]

Very good i like baseball books and this is one i liked. Read or else...

[John · Rating 3 out of 5]

Mind numbing math became irritating.