This is a very demanding read, epic in scope and at times overwhelming. In The Deluge, economic historian Adam Tooze explores the unprecedented pace, scope, and violence of change experienced in world affairs from the late nineteenth century onwards. The defining feature of this change was the sudden emergence of the United States as a novel kind of super-state, exercising veto power over the financial and security concerns of the other major states of the world (6). It is common in books on international relations to speak of the United States as inheriting the mantle of British hegemony. Yet the author argues that this was not a succession but a paradigm shift (15). Great Britain had created an empire on which the sun never set but lacked the hegemonic capacity to preside over it (20). The United States alone had the diplomatic, economic, and military potential to anchor a new global order (21). According to the author, the central preoccupation of this book is tracing the ways in which the world came to terms with America’s new centrality during this restructuring of world order.
The chief value of this book (in my humble opinion) is not based on any bold new arguments, insightful interpretations, or original discoveries. Rather its true value lies in the light it shines on the extraordinary complexity of world affairs that shaped the decisions made during this turbulent time. People look back on the events of WWI and its aftermath and ask questions that presuppose nations are unified, rational actors: “why did France demand such harsh treatment of Germany at Versailles?” or “why did Great Britain draw new national boundaries (Poland, Middle East) that way?” This book, more than any other I’ve read on the period, reveals how so many important decisions were shaped not only by the contest between winners and losers, but by intense inter-Allied disagreements and fierce infighting amongst political factions of just about every country involved (U.S., Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Russia, Japan, China). The most famous of course is the U.S. Senate’s decision not to ratify the League of Nations agreement, even though it was championed by President Woodrow Wilson. This book is so voluminous and covers so many different areas that it would be futile to accurately summarize all the important points contained within. Nevertheless, I have tried to capture some of the key points that I found interesting or that demonstrate that interconnected, complex web of relationships and their impact on decisions following the war.
The author starts his book in 1916, the year when the economic output of the United States exceeded that of the British Empire. America’s economic ascendancy would have far reaching consequences during WWI and the inter-war period that followed. The author argues that America’s impending global dominance was so pervasive that Hitler and Trotsky both hoped the British Empire would rise up and challenge it lest they all become vassal states (26). Ironically, America had little interest in assuming this mantle. It would take the devastating Second World War before America’s massive power was married with a sense of providential purpose to become a truly transformative force in world affairs (27). While America’s economy had been rising for years, it did not become the center of global finance until WWI as the most powerful states in Europe became dependent on foreign creditors (36-38).
The vast majority of this foreign credit came from the United States. By late 1916, American investors had wagered two billion dollars on an Entente victory (48). The Central Powers had no comparable source of external credit to draw on. Consequently, they made their fateful decision to conduct unrestricted submarine warfare. Although they judged correctly that the United States was fully committed (economically) to the Entente, their decision would prove disastrous (48). Woodrow Wilson, desperately desired to play the role of peacemaker. Deeply influenced by Reconstruction in the South following the Civil War, he believed that lasting peace in Europe could only be established if it was accepted by all parties. The only way to produce such an outcome was through a “Peace without Victory” (53). Any peace forced upon the loser would only produce grievance to justify future conflict (54). Unfortunately, the Germans sabotaged the best opportunity for American arbitration by their unrestricted submarine warfare and the Zimmerman telegram seeking to draw Mexico into the war (66-67). In hindsight, these decisions were even more imprudent than they originally appeared. France and Russia were both physically exhausted and the British (in summer 1917) were within days of insolvency. The U.S. entry into the war removed that risk of disaster as it upended British reliance on private capital markets and opened up the politically driven government-to-government lending (78). The author also explores the counterfactual possibility of a democratic future for Russia. Russia was facing the challenges of civil war. Had the Allies responded positively to some of the peace initiatives floated by some voices from within Germany, Russia, and the Vatican, then Russia could have extricated themselves from the war and may never have fallen to the Bolsheviks (87).
In December 1917, the Bolshevik regime and the Central Powers began negotiations for peace. Four months later they signed the Brest-Litovsk Treaty (108). This treaty stripped Russia of territory containing 55 million people, a third of the empire’s pre-war population. The decision to sign these harsh terms were one of those decisions driven by complex interactions among participants. The Bolsheviks needed to consolidate power but did not want to suffer the embarrassment of surrender. Withdrawing from the war would also draw the ire of the rest of the Entente. Trotsky proposed a policy of “no peace, no war”…i.e. they were not quitting but would not fight either. Unfortunately, Germany refused to accept that decision, expanding military action to drive the Russians back to the negotiating table (132-136). By March, the Germans advancing unopposed had captured Kiev. Trotsky’s gamble backfired. Lenin however desperately pressed for Russia to sign the treaty without delay or qualification, despite the embarrassment and shame it brought, in order to save the communist movement (136). While Brest-Litovsk should have been considered a glorious peace of stupendous dimensions, it actually fractured German unity as some political parties labeled it a “peace of violation” (139). The very harsh terms for Russia would later be used against the Germans when discussing the Treaty of Versailles.
In the lead up to the signing of Brest-Litovsk, the British general staff feared that Germany would impose hegemony on all of Russia, forcing upwards of 2 million men into the war on behalf of the Central Powers (156). This could drag the war out for another year or longer. To avoid that fate, they pressed for intervention in Russia itself. A force of 50,000 Czech POWs (in Siberia) seemed like a core force to spearhead this effort. In the midst of Russian infighting, this force captured much of the transcontinental railway. In return for their efforts, they demanded a quid pro quo from Wilson, namely the death of the Hapsburg Empire (158). To screen the Czech withdraw, Wilson authorized U.S. and Japanese forces to enter Siberia (159). The British hoped to use this intervention to bring about a democratic Russia but Wilson refused to commit to such an audacious scheme. Lenin continued to press for signing the Brest-Litovsk treaty but infighting amongst Russian factions prevented it. Brutal waves of assassinations and repressions were carried out by the Bolsheviks (including the murder of the Romanov family) (165). Following this Red Terror, Lenin got the treaty signed averting a total collapse in the face of German advances.
U.S. funds loaned to London, Paris, and Rome gave the Entente their crucial margin of advantage over the Central Powers (206). Unfortunately, accumulating such debt put them at the mercy of the U.S. (207). The Allies could have fought without U.S. financial backing but it would have been a different kind of war. They chose a deliberately high-risk strategy as part of an all-out effort to deliver a knock-out blow (208). This would have ramifications that impacted the rest of the 20th century in dramatic ways. Realizing, their hopeless position, in October 1918, German Chancellor Max von Baden asked Wilson to negotiate a peace based on the principles laid out in his 14 Points. This opened the window back up for a chance at “Peace without Victory”. Wilson’s unilateral diplomacy outraged the Allies, creating a huge amount of friction within the Entente. After England, France, and Italy had gone into massive debt to win, Wilson was on the verge of letting Germany off the hook (224). Wilson pressed ahead, demanding proof of German moves toward democracy. This amounted to a demand for the Kaiser’s abdication which caused an incendiary mutiny amongst the German officers. Their failed attempt to bring about an apocalyptic final confrontation led to revolution within Germany and the breakdown of the Kaiser’s regime (225). The newly formed Reichstag revolutionary government would sign the armistice terms set by Wilson. Had the British and French known how close Germany was to total collapse due to the ongoing revolution, they could have derailed Wilson’s coup. Germany would not have been unable to resist any military advance (228). While Clemenceau (France) and Lloyd George (UK) couldn’t really challenge Wilson, his domestic opponents did. His decision to negotiate with the enemy while our boys were dying in the fields of France caused outrage back home (230).
For the Entente there was nothing that was more clear in the wake of the war than that it’s economic and financial position had changed forever. France future position of subordination was already more definitely marked out by 1919 than was that of Germany’s (289). France tried to rebalance the European economy at the expense of Germany. However, finding a realistic (how much could Germany actually pay) and politically acceptable solution amongst the Big Three (US, UK, France) proved to be divisive. France having suffered the worst of the war and needing to rebuild demanded 55% of all German reparations. While the UK had not been invaded they had suffered huge losses in shipping and had run down its stock of capital to finance France. They feared their less visible losses would go unacknowledged (292-3). Several nations, notably the UK, France, and Italy floated the proposal that Washington consider forgiveness of foreign debt (298). The Europeans argued that the U.S. could afford this seeing they were relatively unscathed and rich. The U.S. swiftly dismissed these proposals.
As the Allies haggled over these matters, the situation in Germany continued to deteriorate. Many of the military officers called for military action rather than submit to some of the more humiliating demands (especially those that gave swaths of Prussian heartland to the new state of Poland, especially since they had been victorious on the Eastern Front). These events would culminate in the Kapp Putsch that attempted to overthrow the Weimar Republic. The negotiations at Versailles would have impacts on the other side of the world as well. The refusal to insert a racial equality clause in the League of Nations had embarrassed the Japanese. To secure their signature, they essentially traded away Chinese territory (which resulted in China’s refusal to sign the charter) (322-329).
While the U.S. appeared to be best situated to escape the impacts of the war, the cost of living was rising dramatically (343). This economic dislocation created friction within the U.S. The Treasury and the Federal Reserve Board were at odds on how to respond. The Fed wanted to increase interest rates to attract investors but the Treasury resisted such calls as gold was draining out of the U.S. (because it was the last stable currency convertible to gold) (344). As the U.S. was dangerously close to leaving the Gold Standard the Treasury reversed course and agreed to jack rates up to 6%. The deflationary impact was drastic resulting in an abrupt tightening of credit and sending the US economy over a cliff (345). The author argues this event was probably the most underrated event in the twentieth century (354). This rippled across the world. France owed $3 billion to the US and $2 billion to the UK…all of which had to be repaid in dollars or gold. With the deflationary pressure brought on by the US, they could do nothing to promote a growth in exports to bridge the gap. So, they turned to the only source left to them…reparations from Germany (367).
While the UK was victorious in the war, their global empire came to be seen as a landscape of rebellion. The talk of rights and self-determination proposed by Wilson created a common political language exploited by smaller nations the world over (374). The UK quickly found themselves dealing with uprisings in Ireland, Egypt, and India at a time when they were trying desperately to reduce military expenditures. While the US had proven unwilling lead in Europe, having failed to ratify the League of Nations agreement, in 1921 the US surprisingly hosted a conference to discuss disarmament in the Pacific. This agreement fixed the ratio of battleships for the US, UK, and Japan at 5:5:3 (Japan agreed to the lower number because their very inclusion conferred on them the status as one of the great powers). The UK tried to build on this success with a conference in Genoa in 1922 in hopes of restoring the European economy. Lloyd George envisioned a grand (and convoluted) scheme whereby aid to Russia would allow them to rebuild (and return to the capitalist fold), this would open a market for German exports and increase their capability to make reparations payments to France. France in turn would be able to repay debts owed to the US (428). The conference would prove a failure.
The French, caught in the middle, threatened (and eventually did) use force to occupy the Ruhr region of Germany (440-441). In occupying the Ruhr, France could now extract coal to recoup $850 million gold francs a year. The Germans watched this invasion with growing resentment. The Germans responded with passive resistance refusing to work in the mines. When the government in Berlin declared official support for the strike the German economy tanked. Eventually, the German government gave in (448). However, Germany’s long-simmering civil war was coming back to boil. The German Communist Party claimed to have 113,000 men ready for to launch an uprising (449). When the uprising was put down, Hitler (himself serving 15 months in prison for revolutionary activity) concluded that the only way to topple the system was from within.
If economists agree on anything, it was that the deflationary consensus and collective austerity of the early 1930s was disastrous (487). The issue was larger than fear of Weimar-style inflation or conservative efforts to cut welfare. The Gold Standard was tied to visions of international cooperation...the “golden fetters” also constrained the militarists (487-8). A cyclical recession was a small price to pay to uphold international peace and order. The perverse consequence was that advocates of economic growth found themselves increasingly in the insurgent nationalist camp (488). The Germans began top secret negotiations with Vienna on forming a customs union (494). It was intended to widen Germany’s room to maneuver but in effect narrowed it as domestic and international pressure began to grow (495). Growing economic tensions led President Hoover to step in and announce a freeze on all debt payments. As this would benefit Germany at the expense of France they vetoed this proposal. During the ensuing debate, Germany’s financial system collapsed (497).
In Japan, participation in the various disarmament talks had angered Army and Navy lobbies (499). In the following months, prominent internationalists in the government were assassinated. Misery across industrial swaths of the Great Britain forced them to abandon the gold standard (500-501). This started a global event causing banks to fail in America and panic in Berlin. Britain had initiated a death spiral of protectionism and currency wars (501). This collapse unfettered the Japanese militarists. The Japanese defense budget doubled from 1930-1934. Politicians trying to slow the growth were gunned down. By 1937, military spending was five times what it was in 1930 (502). The consequences for Germany would become unbearable. Germany had no reserves to weather the storm and could not devalue their currency because their debt was denominated in dollars. Hitler’s Nazi party, promoting work-creation programs, swept to victory with 37% of the vote (503). By 1933, FDR announced that the US would be leaving the Gold Standard. This depreciation of the dollar made it hard to export to the US (505). By July, FDR stated that he would not stabilize the value of US currency, rather it would float to whatever level suited the US economy regardless of its impact on the rest of the world. Hitler took the hint, withdrew from the League of Nations and announced a default on all international obligations (506). Great Britain and France followed suit, suspending payment on billions of dollars of debt (507).
This failure of the Democratic alliance opened a strategic window of opportunity in the early 1930s. A window that nightmarish forces in Germany, Japan, Italy, and the Soviet Union would rush through (511).