The book’s central claim is that after the Cold War, the US is having an incoherent foreign policy and we ought to have a clear principle articulated so that both allies and adversaries know what the US would and would not do. Bremmer then sets out 3 different guiding principles and at the end revealed his own. At the very beginning, he asked 10 multiple choice questions with answers representing these 3 yet-to-be-discussed principles and invite you to answer them. These are not the best worded questions/choices, but it was a good exercise to clarify our own preference.
He first recapped what the international stage was like (back in 2015). There was considerable disagreement within the transatlantic alliance, cost issues within the EU, disagreement about how to treat Russia, and wide-spread anti-American sentiment. (Putin’s 2022 invasion, of course, changed the picture quite a bit.)
He then listed a number of cases to show our incoherent foreign policies after the Cold War: the stumbling in Somalia, the subsequent hasty retreat that emboldened al Qaeda, the pushing of NATO (and naïvely hoping Putin will understand); overestimating the power of economic development changing the nature of the Chinese regime; W’s enormously costly global war on terror; and Obama’s sound strategy is taken over by events. A very clear picture that emerges in this review was that all presidential candidates promised to focus domestically (probably all sincerely) but all face international events (and the pressure to do something as the leader of the free world) that force a reaction on these inexperienced presidents.
Next Bremmer lists 3 different philosophies/guiding principles of US foreign policies that he calls the independent, moneyball, and indispensable America. The arguments for each principle are roughly:
• Declaring independence from international commitments: military interventions make us vulnerable; US often demonstrates double standards, the people don’t always trust our own government, why should others trust their issues with the US; in any case, we have no right or hope to micromanage global politics and really should lead by example — perfect our democracy at home; the heavy involvement internationally robs us the resources to build at home, it also creates an apparatus that can even harm our democracy (what are the 17 intelligence agencies doing and who’s overseeing them?)
• To protect and promote US interests (Moneyball): our foreign policy should be a cold-blooded calculation of return of taxpayer investment.
• Indispensable America argues that we must lead and promote democracy because it is the right thing to do.
In the end, Bremmer reveals that he’s team “Independent” which kind of explains why the arguments for the other two positions to be quite a bit weaker. Maybe the 3 choices are not the correct or only choices. Maybe you don’t agree with Bremmer’s choice. But he asks that we should all choose. Given that the democratically elected government ultimately reflects (to some extent) what the populace supports, Mr. Bremmer at least has a point there.