Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System

by Brandon Valeriano, Ryan C. Maness

In 2011, the United States government declared a cyber attack as equal to an act of war, punishable with conventional military means. Cyber operations, cyber crime, and other forms of cyber activities directed by one state against another are now considered part of the normal relations range of combat and conflict, and the rising fear of cyber conflict has brought about a reorientation of military affairs. What is the reality of this threat? Is it actual or inflated, fear or fact-based?

Taking a bold stand against the mainstream wisdom, Valeriano and Maness argue that there is very little evidence that cyber war is, or is likely to become, a serious threat. Their claim is empirically grounded, involving a careful analysis of cyber incidents and disputes experienced by international states since 2001, and an examination of the processes leading to cyber conflict.

As the authors convincingly show, cyber incidents are a little-used tactic, with low-level intensity and few to no long-term effects. As well, cyber incidents are motivated by the same dynamics that prompt regional conflicts. Based on this evidence, Valeriano and Maness lay out a set of policy recommendations for proper defense against cyber threats that is built on restraint and regionalism.

Genres: International Relations

266 pages, Kindle Edition

First published April 14, 2015

Reviews

[Candra · Rating 3 out of 5]

I purchased this book in the Bras Basah area of Singapore, known for its several used bookstores. As a master of International Studies and continous learner in International Relations and Foreign Policy, I found this book to be quite decent, 3 out of 5. However, having read it in 2023, it's evident that there are several areas where it falls short and exudes a sense of overconfidence.

One significant criticism of this book is its apparent marginalization of the role played by the private sector, (we called it Big Tech companies now), in national cyber defense. In today's world, where the United States and China wield significant power and rivalry over technology and where AI is increasingly utilized in conflict zones, discussions around security must necessarily encompass non-traditional security issues.

[David Aitel · Rating 1 out of 5]

Not good

Ok, so I want to start by saying that the advantage of giving a book like this some time is that you can see if the predictions made by the authors came true or if the way they did NOT come true shows a flaw in the strategic argument made by the book. This book is from August 2015, and already the predictions made are demonstrably far off.

In many cases this book dips into advocacy instead of analysis. And the author's remain ignorant of some basic technical facts... Not acceptable in this subject matter.