Why Can't You Just Give Me The Number?: An Executive's Guide to Using Probabilistic Thinking to Manage Risk and to Make Better Decisions

by Patrick Leach

Executives routinely make major decisions in the face of high uncertainty. In fact, managing risk and uncertainty is one of the key functions of any senior manager. Techniques for estimating the probabilities of multiple scenarios (and the impact of those scenarios) have existed for years, yet many of the men and women in executive positions do not understand how to use the results of these analyses appropriately.This book supplies that understanding in language that non-statisticians can understand. The emphasis is on the practical; real-life examples illustrate the key points throughout the book. Example topics why major projects are so often late and over budget, when to spend money on more information (and when not to), the benefits of a risk-neutral approach, psychological weaknesses humans have when dealing with uncertainty, and tools to use and traps to avoid.

Genres: Mathematics

240 pages, Paperback

First published September 15, 2006

Reviews

[John Crippen · Rating 3 out of 5]

I've convinced myself I need to understand probabilistic risk assessment as part of my study of nuclear energy. This title has nothing to do with nuclear energy and not much to do with risk assessment, but it is a good introduction to Monte Carlo simulations, when to use them, and other decision analysis tools. Sort of made me miss the private sector.