The Art of Uncertainty

by David Spiegelhalter

Paperback

About the author

Sir David Spiegelhalter has been Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at the University of Cambridge since October 2007. His background is in medical statistics, with an emphasis on Bayesian methods: his MRC team developed the BUGS software which has become the primary platform for applying modern Bayesian analysis using simulation technology. He has worked on clinical trials and drug safety and consulted and taught in a number of pharmaceutical companies, and also collaborates on developing methods for health technology assessment applicable to organisations such as NICE. His interest in performance monitoring led to his being asked to lead the statistical team in the Bristol Royal Infirmary Inquiry, and he also gave evidence to the Shipman Inquiry.

Reviews

[Amanda · Rating 3 out of 5]

Starts off well and has some easily digestible and relatable examples. As the content gets a little more "heavy" the writer does provide some warnings to let you skip ahead if you're not interested in "why the maths works". There are a number of thought provoking examples which I think will help me to question future headlines or statistics quoted in the media. There is also some interesting discussion on the psychological interpretation of messaging that arises from statistics.

However I found it became a bit of a slog to get through beyond the halfway point. The technical speak starts to creep in more and I found myself losing interest as I struggled to understand some points.