Ten Steps to Prevent World War Three

by Tobias Ellwood

An urgent call-to-action outlining how we can prevent a global conflict in the near-future from Tobias Ellwood, former Defence Minister and Chair of the House of Commons Defence Committee.

'An expert voice for troubled times' - JOHN KERRY

Thoughtful, thought-provoking and clear-eyed' - PETER FRANKOPAN

'Crucial reading on why our global order has come apart at the seams' - WILLIAM HAGUE

Every day, a new headline. War in the Middle East between Trump's America and Iran. Israel and Palestine in a never-ending conflict. Putin's Russia and Ukraine in a battle that threatens the autonomy of Europe. China on a mission to extend its global reach. The world is closer than it ever has been to midnight on the Doomsday Clock.

Tobias Ellwood is an expert in geopolitics and military strategy. As former Foreign Minister, Defence Minister, Chair of the House of Commons Defence Committee and an officer in the British Army's Royal Green Jackets, he is uniquely placed to offer solutions to the crises affecting our global order. In ten steps, he shows us exactly what is at stake, how we got here, and how we can build an exit plan to prevent regional conflict escalating into global war.

'Engaging and insightful, this book ... offers practical steps that world leaders and everyday citizens alike can take to navigate them with purpose' - GENERAL JIM MATTIS, USMC RTD

Genres: Nonfiction

448 pages, Hardcover

Expected publication January 18, 2027

Reviews

[Callum Campbell]

Stark, direct and honest. I found this book eye-opening in its discussions on it was about Britain’s lagging military capabilities, grey zone conflict and how it contextualised the changing world order. It is wide-ranging in the topics it covers and while uncomfortable to read in parts I believe it is a necessary wake-up message to the realities of the global order and Britain’s role in a changing world.

[Harrison Large ラージ • ハリソン]

Says a lot of things I've been trying to explain very succinctly, and well worth reading if you want a catch up on the way things are from a sensible mind.

I do think Ellwood is too optimistic, but I tried to explain my argument and it turned into a whole rant irrelevant to the book.

If you're the sort of person who was drawn to the cover and blurb, then you're exactly the type of person who would enjoy this book, even if you did disagree at parts like I did.

[David Margetts · Rating 5 out of 5]

Every Politician, Educator, student, in fact all adults should read this enlightening, yet terrifying book which details where we in the West (and specifically in the UK) find ourselves right now geo-politically, economically, militarily etc Its reading creates a stark awareness of how precarious the World is, and that we should not be surprised if the fragile and short period of relative peace (which has been exceptional in human history) evaporates leaving us in a state of war. The book skillfully reflects on the history which has contributed to the current situation, not least colonialism, and illustrates how we (specifically the Boomers) have failed to maximise the peace dividend following the collapse of the Soviet Union, preferring to splurge on welfare, benefits and triple lock pensions (UK & Europe) It shows how we have through complacency sleep walked into a 'grey war', appeasing Russia, China, N Korea, Iran etc as our soft and hard power has been compromised and undermined. The world has changed dramatically with the rise of Putin, Xi, Trump, allowing the 'world order' put together after WWII to avoid world war has been allowed to 'fall apart', UN, WTO, WHO, IMF, World Bank etc etc. In the UK the distraction and damage of Brexit and poor revolving door leadership, and weak economics has left us diminished, and bred a culture of 'compensation' vs 'responsibility'. Ellwood articulates all of this extremely well given his background and experience and sets out good well reasoned solutions and steps that we need/ must take to avoid a catastrophe. Steps that are much easier to say than to execute, and there lies the problem. The steps needed require leadership and statesmanship from the middling countries, UK, Europe, Canada, Australia, NZ, as well as convincing powers like India to engage, yet where are those statesmen? Where are the Reagan's, Thatchers, Churchills, Roosevelts, Mandelas? Instead we have autocrats and populists (Excepting Mark Carney who seems at least prepared to 'stand up' for deep rooted positive' values. Otherwise we have Burnham, Merz, exiting Macron and the prospect of populists such as Le Pen, AFD, Farage etc As such the book clearly outlines our vulnerability, our extreme weakness through lack of investment, which could leave us surrendering within weeks. We need Investment, Focus, Awareness but above all the Leaders to make it happen, but sadly most are more interested in short term 'wins' to keep a volatile electorate happy. The future does not bode well, and with ever greater frequency we see incursions from Russia, cyber attacks, proxy actions, political manipulations, testing our already weak and disunited resolve. That as China becomes ever stronger and influential and America less engaged. The advent of war is already upon us, yet like the 'frog in water' we barely notice the heat rising. Ironically at a time when the 'world order' is most needed and needs strengthening to create co-operation in the light of AI, Climate Change, Energy, Nuclear proliferation etc the major powers are distancing from one another and are combative and distrustful.

[Will Cooper · Rating 3 out of 5]

Not sure why it says pre-publication, it was literally in WHSmiths…
It’s an informative read across a range of issues and interesting personal anecdotes and beliefs. My only major criticism is that the writing style screams GenAI, to a distracting degree. Mostly sentences like “it’s not just X, it’s Y too” and similar.

[cp · Rating 5 out of 5]

Essential reading. Read it and tell your friends to read it.