How long will South Africa survive?: The Looming Crisis

by R.W. Johnson

This is a new book published in 2015 - seperate from the 1977 Edition of the same name by the same author. The 1977 edition discussed how long Apartheid would last, while this edition looks at how long ANC rule will last.

Genres: South Africa, Africa, Nonfiction, Politics, History

266 pages, Paperback

First published April 17, 2015

About the author

R. W. Johnson is a British-South African journalist and historian. Born in England, he was educated at Natal University and Oxford University, as a Rhodes Scholar. He was a fellow in politics at Magdalen College, Oxford, for twenty-six years; he remains an emeritus fellow. He was formerly Director of the Helen Suzman Foundation in Johannesburg.

He is currently a South Africa correspondent for the London Sunday Times and also writes for the London Review of Books. His articles for the LRB generally cover South African and, to a lesser extent, Zimbabwean affairs.

~http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R._W._Jo...

Reviews

[Denzil De Klerk]

Not a fan of this guy's tone, and it stayed the same throughout the book, except for the final breath of optimism he was forced to exhale by critics. Facts aside, his method for argument is rather childlike. Hugely smart and informed the author no doubt is, but his monotonous whining often made we want to turn him off.

[UChicagoLaw]

In 1977, R.W. Johnson—South African native, Oxford don, sometime journalist—published a robust book foreseeing the demise of apartheid government in South Africa due to economic and moral pressure from the left and not from internal revolution. He was right, although it took 15 years for the regime to fall. Now, Johnson is retired from Oxford and back home with a similar argument by the same title, this time arguing that the ANC regime is risking the viability of the country as a unitary nation due to corruption and flagrant abuse of rule of law. Johnson is a lifetime contrarian, and his perspective on this critically important country is discerning. For those enticed by his powerful writing, he has also just published a keen account of his Oxford days, Look Back in Laughter: Oxford’s Postwar Golden Age. —Dennis J. Hutchinson

[Alasdair Craig]

Depressing, it really paints a bleak picture of SA heading towards being just another failed African state. Deeply critical of the ANC. Unrelenting descriptions of corruption and blind loyal patronage. Admittedly it's just one persons opinion but the facts and figures do speak for themselves.

[Andrew Tollemache]

40 years ago RW Johnson predicting that the Apartheid, white minority would not survive the the next decade and now has written a follow up book arguing that the ANC government has also reached a cross roads where its governance going forward is very much in doubt. Always a very challenging and perilous topic to broach, especially if one is a white South African (or like me is in the White South African diaspora).
Johnson approaches the topic as someone who opposed the white regime since he was a teen in the 1960s, but gives a clear eyed view of how things have gone very, very wrong since majority rule in 1994. Essentially Johnson sees the ANC as being a parochial regime largely unconcerned with governing. Decades before it would triumphantly come to power and topple white rule, the ANC had oriented itself around a guiding in the charter drawn up by Jewish communist in the intellectuals in the 1950s that was heavy on Soviet and Maoist admiration, but 40 years latter, at the moment of truth was woefully anachronistic and irrelevant for the world the ANC came to power.
So instead of nartionlaizing industries the ANC became more concerned with the trappings of wealth since nationalization would require the challenging work of governance if it was to have a chance.
RW Johnson also makes there compelling case that like its Apartheid predecessors, the ANC found itself ruling a largely geographically, politically and culturally isolated country that became largely resistant to international political norms and rule sets. Whereas the white govt used this status to maintain an oppressive state in contempt of international opinion, the ANC is able to run oversee a kleptocracy with little criticism from the outside world.
Oddly while South Africa still counts the EU and the US as its largest trading partners, the ANC has decided to throw its geopolitical leanings with the Russians and Chinese, who were very ideologically sympathetic during the Cold War, now see the world differently. SA now enters into alliances with Russia and China expecting they will be given enormous resources with no strings attached, but if recent any history guide will ruin what hope is left for my beloved country. A Chinese bailout will most likely require SA to mortgage its natural resource wealth for decades.

[Chris]

OMG what a slog! I read this because it's cited in Gail Nattrass' A Short History of South Africa (2019). It was originally published in 1977 under the same title, so this is a major update. Johnson's major contention is that "South Africa can either choose to have an ANC government or a modern industrial economy", but not both. It's essentially a catalogue of fatal errors by the ANC party (corruption, mismanagement, etc) since Mandela up until 2015. It also gives insight into Zuma's presidency, exploring how his Zulu heritage effectively created a system of 'chiefly patronage' rather than a typical Western-style democracy. Of course, since the book's publication Zuma has been ousted (with over 300 deaths in the eventual fallout), running contemporaneously with Covid. No regime change just yet, but I think this will just strengthen Johnson's case that 'things have to go to get worse before they get better'. I haven't lived in SA since 2001 so of course this was going to be challenging, but Johnson makes it even harder with his writing, liberally peppering his dry lists of facts with names and references. Not a fun read, but I did learn some things (from the bits I didn't skip, anyway).

[Niels Bergervoet]

The book starts with sketching typical political situations in South Africa and all the involved actors. This is quite a hard read for somebody not familiar with the politics in SA, but it gives a good impression of the complexity. After the first few chapters the author paints a compelling picture of the situation in SA, and what a bleak picture that is. The book really strengthened my conviction that corruption is cancer to a state and that it should be prevented and rooted out. Otherwise it will rot away the system from inside out and only a happy few will be better off. I hope SA will find the way to the right track back in the coming years, before Zuma and the ANC lead it to ruins.

[Alex Rogers]

I had to read this, as a "sequel" to his master work, South Africa's Brave New World, which was an incredible history of the first years of free elections in South Africa. It was an interesting extension of that work, but felt like it could have been edited fiercely, and added as another chapter to an update of his original work. Much of the background and thesis itself had already been covered - so all that was required here was updating for the Zuma years. Still interesting - but not a great stand-alone book.

[Flynn Struckmann]

Utterly depressing and, at times, heartbreaking. Johnson details how post-Apartheid South Africa has been pillaged by a coalition of corrupt businessmen, communist functionaries and ethno-nationalists who have utilised the ANC as a means of enriching themselves at the expense of virtually every sector of South African life. If the ANC falls deeper into the throes of socialism and xenophobia through the accommodation of the EFF, then the prognosis is fatal. Yet, for Johnson, at least, there is hope. Reform is possible, but it must happen soon. Time is running out.

[Sarah]

This book is very easy to read and very interesting. I did not have a lot of background knowledge on South Africa, but was able to understand most the of the references. I guess time will tell how accurate his predications are; after last summer's chaos they seem to be coming true sooner rather than later.

[Austen Mance]

A very bawdy, tabloidesque description of modern South African politics. Lots of amusing anecdotes, but ultimately unsatisfying.

[Joyce Meijs]

Incredible negative. Was an interesting read, well written. But too dystopian in my taste. Till the end I was hoping for a spark of positivity, yet I was disappointed.

[Sid]

A compelling, even-handed analysis. A rare nonfiction page-turner.

[Tim]

Good book that talks about South African politics and corruption that happens. An eyeopener.

[Hanneke]

Packed with references. Depressing to read about the corruption, especially by the ANC. No political will to better the lives of the masses. Bleak outlook for South Africa. Not an easy read.

[Karl-Heinz Graf]

This book is not really good for a holiday read. It's rather like looking in a mirror and seeing a dark shadow hanging over oneself. South Africa is in trouble and it saddens me when I see how brazenly places like Kazakhstan, Eastern Europe are successfully emerging from the grips of communism. With South Africa's leaders still believing in the undemocratic democratic revolution, magic, witchcraft and a god-given right to rule forever (so much for a rational secular state) it is no wonder that we are now in decline. I'm no expat. I'm a global citizen and a South African at heart. I just ho around because I want to. I'm lucky to observe and compare South Africa in bigger framework of a global world. After I finish my journeys I'll probably go back, dig my hands in African soil and wait for time to pass. Zuma should step down. The ANC should look at the mirrors held up by the likes of Johnson and turn the tides. Equality should be a matter of principle and not one if ideology. BEE must go. We need to encourage competitive business (Asian style) so every one can have a chance to make a living. We need really equality. Not favours for friends. The greed has to end now. Zuma does not even deserve R1-00 a month. In Asian countries leaders with such poor performance will be shamed.

[Charmaine Elliott]

A well integrated recent and current history of the disintegration of South Africa based largely on reported facts that have been published in the Mail and Guardian and newspapers that have not yet been completely muzzled by the omnipotent ANC. Many of the events and incidents are debated on 702 talk shows. However, the inner perspectives of the probable IMF position as SA fails to generate the salaries to feed the frenzied billowing Governmental recipients of future loyal support for the Zuma brigade - and just how close SA is to bankruptcy ( financial that is -since moral occurred way back in the Mandela Mbeki era's and is merely being perfected under Zuma) is starkly chilling. An improvement for me - or future work for this author lies in predictions for the rainbow group. He needs a large scenario planning perspective to translate macro trends to predictions for people on the ground. What can you expect as a Chief Director ( bearing in mind that you are nothing special by virtue of the high numbers of you) in your future under the ANC Government? What can you expect as the Jewish White man in your flat in Cape Town in your 60's. What can you expect as a Coloured person under an EFF-ANC alliance in Natal etcetera....

[Ian Badger Stewie]

A factual, non-fiction book that I think all South Africans interested in the current political and economical situation of the country should read. The book discusses the end of apartheid, the 'liberation' era, the rise of Jacob Zuma through an instilled tribal mentality of a large percentage of the rural black population and through corruption, how the current government is run like a chiefdom/mafia crime family and the current economic status of the country. A prediction is also given at the end as to what the author thinks is going to happen to SA. A good book, however it is certainly not a feel good book if you are a patriotic South African.

[Hector]

What a read! I recommend this book to anyone that wants insight into the current political events in South Africa. We could only hope for a Scenario 1 outcome. My take(s) from the book: The ANC has become an ideological and corrupt cancer eating itself from the inside out and void of any will to effectively govern SA. The upcoming municipal elections in 2016 are going to determine which path SA takes. A 2019 general election year where the opposition has taken over several metro-poles and improved service delivery in those areas will shake things up. If that does not transpire we are looking at an IMF bailout (not the worst thing I guess), China bailout or Zim-like collapse.

[Arno]

I could call this book pessimistic and depressing; but what makes it so is the reality of it. Johnson is a master of setting things out in a progressive manner and concluding with a well-rounded opinion. What I like most about reading it is Johnson's candid manner of saying things that we are almost to scared to utter. I am surprised that he has not been accused of the new "racism" that is doing the rounds. Nevertheless, I would recommend this book to any South African that loves his/her country and needs to realize that we are on a slippery slope to an uncertain future.

[The Contented]

Deep sigh. Where does one even start? While the book has some very valid analysis of the pitfalls of cronyism, and how it might have gripped South Africa, a lot of its merit is undone by its alarmist style and propensity to sweeping generalisations. Did you know that all 'Durban Indians' are essentially the same? No, me neither. Did you know that the rest of Africa is pretty much Zimbabwe and Swaziland? And that South Africa is heading that way? And that the country needs an IMF bailout? I didn't.

Time to sleep, I think.

[Antje]

A realistic account and revelation. I have long stopped reading all the newspaper accounts of yet another corruption story and tended to dig my head in the sand like an ostrich. This was a good summary of what has culminated over the last 20 years and possible projections for the near future. I found it interesting that the only government department that seems to be operating efficiently, is SARS.

[Danita]

I used to be really pessimistic about SA's future, expecting the worst. I still feel the same, but less lonely - the knowledge that other people also notice what is going on in our country and that racism (which we are always accused of) has nothing to do with it, is refreshing and inspiring. I would have liked the author to touch on the culture of violence in SA as well, but I suppose that is a subject on its own.

[Gerhardt]

An absolutely fascinating and educating read. The first part explains why the ANC is in it's current state and that's worth the asking price already. Johnson's writing is stellar and his knowledge of and insight into SA politics unrivaled. The most gripping non-fiction book I've ever read, and I've been through some good ones!
This book should be compulsory reading for all South Africans.

[Surita du Toit]

Very bleak, but well referenced and impartial. I think it helps that the author was a big ANC supporter in pre-1994 years. No one is more qualified to lay out the issues than one who supported them all through the liberation struggle and even after. Ultimately he has the survival of his country at heart and that is what makes this powerful.

[Rendier]

Gives a lot of insight on the story behind the news. Makes you worry more about the fools in charge, but says that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. But there's probably a bit of rusted track between here and there...

[Joe Beer]

A very pessimistic view of South Africa's future. Don't think there are factual errors, but some aspects may be seen in a different context if more elaborate or comprehensive facts and views were presented. A must read though,mighty recommended.

[Luke]

A must read for anyone interested in the extant South African political economy.

[Ruth Pieterse]

South Africans should read this well researched book.

[Gerda Laubscher]

Essential reading for anyone trying to understand SA socio-politics

[Eugene Lombard]

Intriguing and insightful. More than just doom and gloom, as the title might lead you to believe.

South Africa is one complex country.