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A Spy's Guide to #1

A Spy's Guide to Thinking

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"Head wounds bleed. All those vessels going to the brain. Carrying nutrients so you can think. Which I hadn’t . . . I was stunned. But I hadn’t lost yet. I still had the phone. And two options."

There are a select few people who get things done. Spies are first among them.

In a 45 minute read, a former spy introduces two simple tools for thinking. The first describes how we think. The second helps us think ahead. They are the essential tools for getting things done.

The tools are applied to an incident in a subway car in Europe where a spy faces a new enemy. Then, they're reapplied to Saddam Hussein's stockpiling (or not) of weapons of mass destruction.

John Braddock was a case officer at the CIA. He developed, recruited and handled sources on weapons proliferation, counter-terrorism and political-military issues. A former university research fellow, he is now a strategy consultant. He helps people and organizations think more effectively about their strategy, their customers and the competition.

51 pages, Kindle Edition

First published May 31, 2015

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John Braddock

7 books86 followers

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Displaying 1 - 30 of 495 reviews
Profile Image for Wil Wheaton.
Author 103 books231k followers
November 25, 2016
There's a moderately interesting story in here, about how the author handles a potentially violent encounter on a subway. He wants to show us how he uses a particular type of thinking to make his decisions during the encounter.

And then he spends a whole chapter of an already short book relitigating the goddamn bogus WMD claims that were used to justify the Iraq war. (Spoiler alert: It wasn't the CIA's fault! No! Really! USA! USA!)

This ... whatever this is because it isn't a book ... could be an interesting column in a magazine that you'd read on an airplane, but if you expect to actually learn anything, don't waste your time.
Profile Image for Amir Tesla.
163 reviews775 followers
July 6, 2021
The subject
Spy's Guide to thinking offers a framework for effective thinking which is based on experiences of a field spy "John Braddock". I guess this is the guy who convinced white house of Iraq's possession of weapons of mass destruction, hence igniting the war.

The book
The book is organized in four concise chapters:

I. How to think
II. What to think about
III. How others think
IV. How to think about others

How to think
Author teaches the structure of effective thinking which is the foundation of decision making from small levels as individuals to gigantic ones as goverments. He argues that thinking in its simplest form is as follows:
Data > Analysis > Decision > Action
If thinking doesn't end with action, it's useless. Taking action is why we thinking and without it, thinking is useless.


We collect data, analyze through them, come up with decisions and we take action. Based on the feedback we get from the taken action, we get new data to analyze and further refine our decisions. This is the big picture.

What to think about
Data + analysis is what we call intelligence, the info given to the government, cabinet or generals to make the decisions to be acted upon by diplomats, soldiers or spies.

Good analysis is the combination of old and new data which in turn leads to a good decision.


Thinking through the DADA model is very much similar to the scientific method:

The scientific method says: Develop a hypothesis, test it and observe the results. With results in hand, decide whether your hypothesis was correct.


The interesting thing is that scientists do not start with data collection, rather, the spark off from hypothesis. So to answer "what to think about" we must first come up with decisions we need to make. So for instance:

The intelligence agency is told an issue, the options and questions regarding the issue. Based on those, the analysts come up with what they call "requirements" which are questions again.


In essence, you must have a decision to make to begin with, hence, the thinking loop I mentioned above begins with decision and is like this:

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Intelligence agencies start with the decision. Like scientists start with hypothesis. That's how we know what we're looking for.


How others think
When dealing with other parties, the first question should always be, "What kind of game do they think we're playing?"

There are three kinds of games:
A. Zero-sum game: These are conflict games and happen when one player can only gain what the other player gives up.

B. Positive-sum game These are cooperative games and continue as long as both sides are gaining, or expect to. Like any good marriage or alliance or business partnership, benefits both sides is what keeps it together. When you add up the gains, the result is positive.

C. Negative-sum games: These games are rare, wars of attrition, Verdun, or labor strike. Both sides are losing while each side hopes it's losing less than the other. As soon as one side figures it's losing too much, the negative-sum game is over.

Understanding these three types of games is a shortcut to good thinking. it helps us understand the people we're working with or against. Best of all, the games shortcut gets us closer to Holy Grail of thinking: predicting what others will do next. The first step to winning a zero-sum game is to know it's coming. It's why spies work in peacetime, to give alert when peace is about to become war.

When involved in a zero-sum game, winning isn't just about being good at conflict. In fact, being good at conflict isn't the best way to win. The best way to win a zero-sum game is to be good at positive-sum games.


How to think about others
In this chapter the author elaborates a bit on Iraq war's and the whole thing about international community suspecting Iraq being in possession of Weapons of Mass Distruction (WMD). As it turns out, Saddam has been facing two major issues, internal rivals, and the main external one (IRAN). Saddam Wanted Iran to think he had WMD in order to deter attacks while he didn't want anyone inside Iraq to actually possess WMD. Because whoever had the WMD inside Iraq could use it to threaten the Saddam's grip on power.
So he created a perception of having massive stockpiles of WMD without actually having much.

The bottom line
Two major pieces of knowledge I grasped from the book is first, the thinking chain as I described above (Data > Analysis > Decision > Action). And the second one is to always start with a question regarding the issue at hand. Simple, yet valuable.

Final Word
All in all, this short book if consumed well has merits and due to its potential and conciseness I would definitely recommend it.
Good thinking means good decisions, good actions, good results, hopefully, but not always. We live in a fog of uncertainty. Good thinking removes some of the fog, Never all of it.
Profile Image for ☘Misericordia☘ ⚡ϟ⚡⛈⚡☁ ❇️❤❣.
2,526 reviews19.2k followers
June 28, 2018
Either it's me or it's too simplistic. Whatever... Lot's of obvious things, little depth.
Q:
Intelligence agencies start with the decision. Like scientists start with the hypothesis. (c) It's called cherry-picking.
Q:
Thinking is cheap. Action is expensive. (c)
Q:
The Data-Analysis-Decision-Action chain helps us focus on where we might have holes in our thinking. (c)
Q:
The best way to win a zero-sum game is to be good at positive-sum games. (c)
Profile Image for SheLove2Read.
3,093 reviews202 followers
February 7, 2017
Interesting reading. Free if you have Amazon Prime. Not a lot of actual spy information but it's obvious the author is knowledgeable on the subject either by study or by actual employment as a spy. What if found the most interesting is the critical thinking steps the author details. Easily something the average person could employ in everyday life.
Profile Image for Théo d'Or .
652 reviews300 followers
Read
January 29, 2024
How could you think of this, and defy gravity at the same time ?
1 review
January 7, 2017
Lacks depth, volume

Lessons and insights are shallow. Light content. Written as a stream of consciousness. Topic is intriguing however content is poor. Book is more of a chapter than it is a book
Profile Image for Mscout.
343 reviews25 followers
August 1, 2017
The 45 minute read could have been condensed to 45 words. Or less. A lot less. Most of the text was devoted to a self-congratulatory experience with a tweaker on a train trying to snag the author's phone. I think it was supposed to illustrate how well his DADA system of thinking works, except that it didn't. He was surprised several times when the druggie didn't conform to his expectations (go figure). This is the only work I've read by Braddock, so I don't know if any of the others hold any value, but I won't be running out to see.
Profile Image for Sarah Booth.
407 reviews44 followers
June 18, 2017
Repetitive

Could have been boiled down to 5 pages. The repetition of the data analysis decision action and the three types of games zero sum, positive and negative hardly needed to be broken down into such a way that made it understandable to a three year old. Had perhaps more of these ideas been strong together on a longer book with a good editor who knows how to tell a writer he's talking down to his audience would help. N
Profile Image for Jake Losh.
211 reviews24 followers
February 13, 2018
I liked it. Extra star for not being longer than it has to be. Best explanation of DADA/OODA loops I've seen so far that isn't packed with bloat.

Edit: I'd offer that reviewers hating on the "politics" tangentially offered by the author's personal/professional opinions on, e.g., the Iraq war, seem to be suffering from mood affiliation. They're not actually important to understanding the real messages of the book anyway. Feel free to ignore them, if it better suits your world view.
Profile Image for Dimple.
46 reviews1 follower
January 3, 2018
No wonder it is trending on Goodreads. Short and Sharp. A must read.
I guess what he has written is pretty obvious but it is the way he has chosen to write the book that keeps you hooked.
The DADA and the three games. Awesome.
Reading this book only confirmed my hypothesis that my thinking sucks and needs work :p
Profile Image for Karol Gajda.
Author 6 books22 followers
December 8, 2015
This was well-written (using an interesting back-and-forth literary device) and fun. A book about thinking, zero-sum, negative-sum, and positive-sum games, told through the eyes of a former CIA agent.

"How you play all the other games depends on what kind of game is the final game."
Author 6 books109 followers
February 6, 2017
Much more examples would have been nice, but it was a nice read for its length and price. I had previously heard about the concept of the OODA loop, and the idea that the person who goes through the loop faster wins, but been unsure of how to apply it. This helped clarify that.
Profile Image for Soheil.
153 reviews20 followers
November 20, 2017
A short book that offers you a simple framework for thinking with a story.
You could find both, better explained, on the internet.
No need to read this one.
Profile Image for Ryan Alsaihaty.
147 reviews36 followers
November 24, 2017
Guide to thinking:

collect DATA >> perform ANALYSIS >> make DECISION >> take ACTION

Only if this is not obvious to you, go ahead and read this book.
Profile Image for Conrad Zero.
Author 3 books143 followers
July 26, 2020
I was looking for some interesting spy-think for a story I'm writing. But this book is a blog post at best. It loosely and lightly covers the DADA process (Data->Analysis->Decision->Action) and the different game theories of zero, positive and negative sum games. And that's about it.

If this guy really was a spy, there would be a dozen situations/stories where his thinking would have saved the day. But there's only one example, and it does not reflect positively on our supposed spy-author's thought process, when a mugger asks for his cell phone on the subway.

If the author really was a spy, he would have considered obvious options of Stalling or Negotiating (changing the zero-sum game of fighting over cell phone into a lesser damaging zero sum game, where he gives the mugger money instead) Analyzing the other exists from the subway car, or any alarm or emergency buttons he might push. He could create a Diversion or create a compelling Lie. (If he's a spy, he should be good at this. "Oh, it's not a cell phone, it's a pez dispenser shaped like a cell phone!" or "Sorry, this cell phone belongs to the police officer standing behind you.") He could have just told the mugger. "No thanks" (I've done this myself and it has worked) or quoted Shakespeare to confuse him (it worked for Sting, LOL) But the only options the author comes up with are physical: enlist allies from the people in the subway car/Stand/Sit/Fight or go around the mugger.

What does the author get for his thinking process? He gets clocked. He gets several stitches. The mugger lets him keep his phone. In the end, his thinking didn't do him a lot of good. If any of it really happened. Making this situation the critical example in a book about thinking was not well thought out. You'll probably get more enjoyment and education out of watching the Bourne series.

Bonus points if you noticed that the authors initials lined up with the other fictional spies mentioned in the book. (James Bond, Jason Bourne, etc)
Profile Image for Kim.
239 reviews44 followers
October 20, 2017
Nice 45 minute (longer if you ponderize processes) Kindle Single nonfiction topic read on methods of thinking, decision making, and finding answers/information. Turns a very academic explanation of DADA, the OODA loop, scientific method, game sum theory, and etcetera, which other wise could possibly be intellectually dry and long and instead wraps the lessons around an exciting suspenseful dangerous real life CIA field work day anecdote in a Kindle Single size small package.

Source: Amazon Prime Reading Loan
Profile Image for R. F. Errant.
5 reviews
February 22, 2017
I got at least three useful points from reading this, which considering the cost and time to read it, is a good value.

My problem with the book is that his main example does not validate his teaching. In fact, they appear to invalidate them. If the example is the best of his personal experience, which is suggested, you have to wonder if he successfully applied his ideas in real life.

But before I am too hard on the author, I could make the same criticism of Plat0, Machiavelli and Sun Tzu, all of which had questionable success in applying their idea. That does not mean, however, others did not find their ideas useful, so the author is in good company.
Profile Image for Lukas Lovas.
1,392 reviews64 followers
September 22, 2017
Interesting point of view. The thing I most took from this book is, that some people overthink things. Not a bad thing, but if you're not trained to think fast, you'll end up being a passive observer in most situations, if you try to adapt this approach.
Profile Image for Mustakim.
375 reviews32 followers
January 29, 2021
বই : A Spy's Guide To Thinking
লেখক : John Braddock
পৃষ্ঠাসংখ্যা : ৪৩

বইয়ের লেখক সিআইএ'র একজন কেইস অফিসার ছিলেন। লেখক বইতে একজন স্পাই এর কিছু থিঙ্কিং প্রসেস নিয়ে আলোচনা করেছেন।আপনি যদি ভেবে থাকেন এটা পড়ে যদি আপনি সিআইএ এর গোপন বা খুব গুরুত্বপূর্ণ কোনো থিঙ্কিং প্রসেস সম্পর্কে জানতে পারবেন তাহলে আপনাকে অভিনন্দন আপনার ধারণা সম্পূর্ণ ভুল। লেখক বইয়ের শেষে উল্লেখ করে দিয়েছেন এটা সিআইএ অনুমোদিত বা আমার মনে হয় এডিটেডও হতে পারে(কাজেই কোনো গুরুত্বপূর্ণ তথ্য থাকলে নিশ্চয়ই সিআইএ সেটা অনুমোদন করতো না)। বইয়ের উল্লেখিত চিন্তাপদ্ধতি খুবই হালকাভাবে উপস্থাপন করা হয়েছে কোনো কিছুর খুব বেশি গভীরে গিয়ে আলোচনা করা হয়নি আর চিন্তাপদ্ধতিও আমার খুব একটা কার্যকরী মনে হয়নি।উক্ত বইতে লেখক ইউরোপের কোনো একটা দেশে একটা বাসে একটা মাদকাসক্ত লোকের সাথে তার সংঘর্ষের কাহিনীর মধ্য দিয়ে তার বইয়ে উল্লেখিত থিঙ্কিং প্রসেসগুলো ব্যাখ্যা করেছেন কিন্তু বই পড়ে আমার মনে হয়েছে তার থিঙ্কিং প্রসেস তার বইয়ের উল্লেখিত ইনসিডেন্টেই কাজ করেনি :3

যাইহোক নতুন কিছু তথ্য জানতে পেরেছি এজন্য রেটিং পাঁচের ভেতর দেড় দিলাম :)

রেটিং - ১.৫/৫


~ মোঃ মুস্তাকিম বি.
২৯ জানুয়ারি, ২০২১
Profile Image for Jamie Yu.
287 reviews44 followers
January 13, 2018
To me, this just felt like it was lacking in content??? Would have been an interesting short article in a magazine to read while waiting at the optometrist's, but I felt like I gained nothing from reading this. It was interesting in jumping back and forth between the scene on the train and the processes of thinking but it really did not engage me or give me insight to a spy's mind, as the blurb promised. Can't pinpoint anything particularly bad about this but it's very easily forgettable I doubt I'll think much of it in a few days.
Profile Image for Brittany.
487 reviews17 followers
March 25, 2017
Interesting

I like books that give me the inside look in how things work. I might be interested in reading the next one.
Profile Image for Tania.
58 reviews2 followers
October 18, 2017
Very short read, has an interesting story in-between the explanation of how one should think. I was already accustomed to Boyd’s OODA Loop, so it was refreshing to learn a different, albeit similar, process. The author explains the DADA process which means data, analysis, decision-making and action. Good thinking leads to good decision making and may or may not lead to actions. Sometimes the best decision is to do nothing.

I gave it 3 stars mostly because it was short and I didn’t really like the use of space to spell out if I bought the book then we have a positive sum outcome. Yes, it’s true but I would’ve much rather have him use another real-life example to break down the DADA process.

I would recommend this book to people who do not like to read a lot but still need to learn and or be made aware of the importance of thinking.
Profile Image for Nick Skelton.
Author 2 books4 followers
March 12, 2017
Very well executed

This book is simple, clear, useful and interesting. The structure is awesome, textbook writing style, I loved it. Looking forward to the next one
Profile Image for Bob.
53 reviews
February 22, 2017
Interesting little story and reflection on the conversion of information to action. Not particularly original. In the motorcycle course I took, they teach a process of riding: Scan-Identify-Predict-Decide-Execute, which is no different that DADA or OODA or whatever. The notion of BATNA (Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement) taught at Harvard's seminars on negotiation is related as well. If you have paid any attention to anything at all in your life, you would probably have encountered all of this information before. There is no secret method disclosed here. It's clever to write a book like this, because I'm certain that like me, many are curious if there IS some secret method to the art of spying. In the end, it is about mindfulness of the surroundings and understanding the nature of the problem you're negotiating.

That said, this process of connecting actions to data is something that might benefit Trump and his boneheaded minions.
Profile Image for Sleepless Dreamer.
895 reviews392 followers
January 5, 2019
Eh, more like 3.5 stars but it's my first read of the year so I'm gonna be generous.

Anyway, this is hardly a book, it's so short. On the other hand, I swear I'm going to finish my reading challenge so short books are acceptable.

So yeah, the writing style is very annoying. Writes like this. Every second. So many periods. You don't need to. Commas are your friends.

That said, he makes his point. He's condescending but it's there, this DADA type of thought. I'm so unanalytical, in situations I feel like I go by my gut, feel the energy and act through that. I'd like to analyze more. Maybe that'll be my New Years revolution.

Okay, math calls me. I guess I recommend this because is short and a little though inducing. I liked the part with Hossein.

what I'm taking with me
• Honestly, a game theory book would be better to read.
• not enough action for a spy book
• Ahh, I have no idea what I'd do in the situation described, and I'm going to be traveling alone in a month. Oh god.
Profile Image for Emily.
51 reviews14 followers
December 19, 2016
I was expecting this to be overbearing and was happy to find that it wasn't. I really enjoyed the audiobook on my commute to work. Not only was the writing clear, but it also drew comparisons to scientific and historical examples that made for an engaging and approachable read. It was incredibly interesting to hear how the "spy" mode of thinking developed and its necessity in the history of American espionage post-WW2.
Profile Image for Phyllis Stewart.
27 reviews1 follower
March 15, 2018
Yep, these are the guys I remember

I was just a 19-year-old girl when the blue shuttle pulled up to the CIA's main entrance. By the time I left, I met and worked with many fine people, even some real spies. This book is the real deal. This is the book I'm giving my grandkids to reach them the fine art of decision making. Highly recommended. You can't find a better use for an idle your
Profile Image for James.
1,506 reviews114 followers
December 27, 2016
Not much to it but it was a fun read. Braddock discusses the thought process and how a spy analyses situations using a confrontation with a druggy on a train as a frame of reference (which happened to him on the to a covert meeting). This is a Kindle single so it can be read easily in one sitting and in less than an hour.
Profile Image for Darren Loreni.
3 reviews3 followers
February 29, 2016
Holds your interest and does a great job breaking down thinking

I don't know why I picked up this book but it was a great way to kill time while learning how the DADA thought process works.
Displaying 1 - 30 of 495 reviews

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