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End Game - Tipping Point for Planet Earth
In 'End Game', world-renowned scientists Anthony Barnosky and Elizabeth Hadly draw on their work to explain the growing threats to humanity as the planet edges towards a resource war for remaining space, food, oil and water. And as they show, these wars are not the nightmares of a dystopian future but are already happening today.
They explore the origins of Ebola in densely populated areas of south-eastern Guinea, witness raging fires in Yellowstone and Colorado and explain how drought-induced food shortages are already causing problems in the Sudan, Gaza Strip and Iraq. Finally, they ask: at what point will inaction become the break-up of the intricate workings of the global society?
The planet is in danger now, but the solutions, as Barnosky and Hadly show, are still available. We still have the chance to avoid the tipping point and to make the future better. But this window of opportunity is closing fast and will shut within ten-to-twenty years. 'End Game' is the call we need.
They explore the origins of Ebola in densely populated areas of south-eastern Guinea, witness raging fires in Yellowstone and Colorado and explain how drought-induced food shortages are already causing problems in the Sudan, Gaza Strip and Iraq. Finally, they ask: at what point will inaction become the break-up of the intricate workings of the global society?
The planet is in danger now, but the solutions, as Barnosky and Hadly show, are still available. We still have the chance to avoid the tipping point and to make the future better. But this window of opportunity is closing fast and will shut within ten-to-twenty years. 'End Game' is the call we need.
264 pages, Paperback
First published July 1, 2015
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124 people want to read
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August 23, 2017
End Game is, by far, the most racist, elitist, anti-human, vile and dangerous book I have ever read. It is nothing but neo-Malthusian garbage.
In the 1700s the Reverend Thomas Malthus campaigned against improving the living standards of the poor because they would only have more children and thus require more investment in their quality of life. These ideas have proved popular with the ruling class and have inspired enforced famines, sterilisation programs and eugenics research. Malthus’s ideas were argued against strongly by Frederik Engels who summed them up thusly: “The earth is perennially overpopulated, whence poverty, misery, distress and immorality must prevail; that it is the lot, the eternal destiny of mankind, to exist in too great numbers, and therefore in diverse classes, of which some are rich, educated, and moral, and others more or less poor, distressed, ignorant and immoral.” These words could easily describe End Game.
The authors are explicit in their desire, not to eradicate inequality (in an echo of the logic of Malthus they note that improving the infrastructure in poor countries would simply raise the cost of living, so best let them just live in squalor), but simply to minimise the conflicts which arise from unequal distributed resources. Given that they repeatedly recount wearing pearls to exclusive parties and dining with powerful businesspeople, they clearly see themselves as the “rich, educated, and moral” and simply want to protect themselves from the “poor, distressed, ignorant and immoral.” They are clearly worried about the social order being upset by angry poor people wanting their fair share of Earth’s resources, repeatedly and at length quoting from US military and intelligence reports which equate inequality not with human suffering but with ‘national security’. They are also terrified of the Arab Spring, seeing it not as a powerful and inspiring example of class struggle overturning authoritarian regimes, but as a fateful warning: if there are not enough old, wise, (and preferable white) people, and too many poor, brown, thirsty, hungry, unemployed people, they will mess with the natural and legitimate order of society! Wouldn’t it be terrible if more young, working-class people “destabilise” society in other countries, such as the US or Australia!
If the fear mongering about ‘national security threats’ wasn’t already an indication, the authors of this book are extremely racist—jaw-droopingly racist, in fact. Just like Paul Erlich, who popularised the neo-Malthusian overpopulation myth in the 1960s and is quoted extensively in this book, the authors note they were first convinced that there are too many humans in the world when they first visited India and were overwhelmed and disgusted by the sheer number of brown people they saw. An explicit theme of the book is that, while the supposed impacts of ‘overpopulation’ are currently only being felt in far away lands populated by brown people who you don’t care about, these impacts will soon affect white people like you! Most chapters begins with the authors and their children—I like to think of them as The Racist Thornberries—traveling aboard to carry out scientific research. These vignettes all follow the same basic pattern. They begin by exoticising the location and the people who live there, before transforming into a tale of terror in which the local brown people are inhuman beasts. Crazed Nepalese villagers hack at each other with machetes, Indians with sinewy muscles point guns while uttering unintelligible sounds, South Africans with dead eyes reach through the bars of a take-away shop’s fence to grasp at fried chicken. And the message is always explicit—this is coming to your town. People in poor countries are described as ‘seething masses’ who will soon be ‘banging on the doors’ of rich nations. Population growth in Africa is described as a ‘tidal wave’ which will wash over Europe and North America. Muslim refugees, it warns, will soon be in your town, preying to Mecca, taking your job, and stealing your social security. One wonders if Australian Immigration Minister and Torturer-in-Chief hadn’t read this when he warned of ‘illiterate, innumerate’ refugees flooding Australia, taking our jobs while simultaneously languishing on the dole queue.
The authors are also profoundly anti-human. While they recognise that climate change, pollution, hunger and war are all problems, they view the root cause of all of these issues as arising from there simply being far too many humans. This is simply factually incorrect. Humans are not the problem. Instead, the problem is the system of capitalism which organises the world, enforcing the logic of profit which decides how the world’s productive capacity is used and how resources and wealth are distributed. It is not the vast majority of humanity which is destroying the planet, waging wars, and causing hunger and starvation, but instead a tiny minority of capitalists. The necessity for continued economic growth is not, as asserted by the authors, a myth, but is instead built into the system of capitalism. Looking for a second just at climate change, the authors themselves repeatedly acknowledge that the turning point for pollution and climate change was not around the dawn of humanity tens of thousands of years ago, but instead the Industrial Revolution a mere few hundred years ago, when the capitalist class had cemented their rule over the western world. They also mention that if the largest producers of consumer goods followed regulatory guidelines and used more sustainable technology they could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 50%. However, they do not see the problem here as the being the capitalist minority, but instead the fault of all of humanity. Did you know that environmental catastrophes during the mining of rare earth metals for use in mobile phones is not the fault of corporations cutting corners as they strive for greater and greater profits, but instead is because people are greedy and want too much stuff and have too many babies?
Through convoluted twists of logic, the authors manage to use the supposed over-abundance of humans as the scape-goat for literally everything, from red pandas dying in the Himalayas, to terrorism, to school students being stressed when applying to tertiary educational institutions. They are adamant that humans are inherently awful people, believing ‘human nature’ encompasses everything from competition, over-consumption and obsession with status symbols to war, closed-mindedness, and intolerance. The Israel-Palestine conflict, it turns out, is not due to British and US imperialists colonising Palestine to gain influence in the oil-rich Middle East, but is somehow because there are too many people, and those people have intransigent religious and cultural beliefs (and also Palestinians are all suicide-bombing terrorists, just for some extra racist flavour). This leads to the authors having absolutely no plan to fix any of the very real problems they describe in their book. They do try to offer suggestions. First of all, they suggest that if rich people went on more holidays to poor countries, they will see they don’t need to buy so much stuff! Next, they are big proponents of green capitalism, suggesting that entrepreneurs stop selling things and instead sell experiences like wind surfing—genius!—and supporting the sorts of carbon pricing schemes which have totally failed in Europe and Australia (“more profits for the good guys”!) But most of all they put the onus on “people” and the “general populace” to “shift their attitudes”, acknowledge that “climate change is real”, overcome the “popular resistance to changing our ways”, stop craving after stuff, stop making babies, and stop having those pesky cultural differences that make us want to kill each other. But this isn’t even a solution going by the internal logic presented by the authors. Aren’t humans greedy monsters? Isn’t human nature inherently awful? By their own logic this is a dead end, and the earth is doomed.
Luckily, there is solution. Already, contrary to the authors’ assertions, most people recognise that climate change is real. It is not the intransigence of the working class which needs to be overcome, but the system of capitalism itself. In the US we have seen the heroic resistance of First Nations peoples and their supporters to the building of oil pipelines. In Australia there have been protests against the Adani Mine. It is direct, public, mass actions like these which can develop the class consciousness of working class people to recognise that it is the corporations, the governments and the police who are the ones destroying the planet. Similarly, while governments may be able to whip up patriotic fervour for a time, most people are generally against war. The historic demonstrations and mobilisations against the Iraq War show that the capitalist class are the ones who choose to go to war, and that it is the working class who oppose war, because it is in our interest to do so. The example of the Russian Revolution of 1917 is both illustrative and inspiring. The ruling class of Russia chose to go to war. They sent the workers and peasants of Russia to die in the trenches, and diverted the countries resources to the war effort leaving those on the home front starving and destitute. The workers and peasants raised the demand for Bread and Peace - they did not want the war, but instead wanted to be able to feed themselves. The Bolshevik Party recognised that neither the aristocracy nor the rising capitalist class was interested in these demands, and therefore could not be pleaded with but instead must be overthrown. Through months of protests and strikes the majority of the working class and peasantry, and thus the majority of the population of the Russian Empire, was won to this position, capitalism in Russia was overthrown, and Russia’s involvement in the war was ended. The Russian Revolution inspired a similar revolution in Germany which, while not successful, did end Germany’s involvement in the war and ended WWI. In Russia, now that the working class controlled production instead of a tiny minority of capitalists, resources could be distributed based on human need, not profit. Laws were passed to establish national parks, and technology was introduced to improve crop yields while minimising environmental degradation. It is this example that we need to follow if we want to see a world free from war, poverty, starvation, pollution and climate change.
This book is indescribably terrible. It lavishes praise on the Chinese One Child policy, implies that multiple waves of colonisation, slavery, and indentured servitude in Mauritius was a positive experience, and somehow thinks the US military and insurance industry are progressive because they acknowledge the existence of climate change. But it is right about one thing. At one point, the authors mention that wishy-washy liberal intellectuals and pro-military conservatives have more in common than they’d like to admit. After reading pages and pages of racist, pro-capitalist, liberal rubbish, all I could think was, “lol tru”.
Don’t read this book. Here are some things you could read instead:
- http://isreview.org/issue/68/are-ther...
- http://marxistleftreview.org/index.ph...
- http://marxistleftreview.org/index.ph...
- http://isj.org.uk/dispelling-the-malt...
- http://marxistleftreview.org/index.ph...
- http://marxistleftreview.org/index.ph...
In the 1700s the Reverend Thomas Malthus campaigned against improving the living standards of the poor because they would only have more children and thus require more investment in their quality of life. These ideas have proved popular with the ruling class and have inspired enforced famines, sterilisation programs and eugenics research. Malthus’s ideas were argued against strongly by Frederik Engels who summed them up thusly: “The earth is perennially overpopulated, whence poverty, misery, distress and immorality must prevail; that it is the lot, the eternal destiny of mankind, to exist in too great numbers, and therefore in diverse classes, of which some are rich, educated, and moral, and others more or less poor, distressed, ignorant and immoral.” These words could easily describe End Game.
The authors are explicit in their desire, not to eradicate inequality (in an echo of the logic of Malthus they note that improving the infrastructure in poor countries would simply raise the cost of living, so best let them just live in squalor), but simply to minimise the conflicts which arise from unequal distributed resources. Given that they repeatedly recount wearing pearls to exclusive parties and dining with powerful businesspeople, they clearly see themselves as the “rich, educated, and moral” and simply want to protect themselves from the “poor, distressed, ignorant and immoral.” They are clearly worried about the social order being upset by angry poor people wanting their fair share of Earth’s resources, repeatedly and at length quoting from US military and intelligence reports which equate inequality not with human suffering but with ‘national security’. They are also terrified of the Arab Spring, seeing it not as a powerful and inspiring example of class struggle overturning authoritarian regimes, but as a fateful warning: if there are not enough old, wise, (and preferable white) people, and too many poor, brown, thirsty, hungry, unemployed people, they will mess with the natural and legitimate order of society! Wouldn’t it be terrible if more young, working-class people “destabilise” society in other countries, such as the US or Australia!
If the fear mongering about ‘national security threats’ wasn’t already an indication, the authors of this book are extremely racist—jaw-droopingly racist, in fact. Just like Paul Erlich, who popularised the neo-Malthusian overpopulation myth in the 1960s and is quoted extensively in this book, the authors note they were first convinced that there are too many humans in the world when they first visited India and were overwhelmed and disgusted by the sheer number of brown people they saw. An explicit theme of the book is that, while the supposed impacts of ‘overpopulation’ are currently only being felt in far away lands populated by brown people who you don’t care about, these impacts will soon affect white people like you! Most chapters begins with the authors and their children—I like to think of them as The Racist Thornberries—traveling aboard to carry out scientific research. These vignettes all follow the same basic pattern. They begin by exoticising the location and the people who live there, before transforming into a tale of terror in which the local brown people are inhuman beasts. Crazed Nepalese villagers hack at each other with machetes, Indians with sinewy muscles point guns while uttering unintelligible sounds, South Africans with dead eyes reach through the bars of a take-away shop’s fence to grasp at fried chicken. And the message is always explicit—this is coming to your town. People in poor countries are described as ‘seething masses’ who will soon be ‘banging on the doors’ of rich nations. Population growth in Africa is described as a ‘tidal wave’ which will wash over Europe and North America. Muslim refugees, it warns, will soon be in your town, preying to Mecca, taking your job, and stealing your social security. One wonders if Australian Immigration Minister and Torturer-in-Chief hadn’t read this when he warned of ‘illiterate, innumerate’ refugees flooding Australia, taking our jobs while simultaneously languishing on the dole queue.
The authors are also profoundly anti-human. While they recognise that climate change, pollution, hunger and war are all problems, they view the root cause of all of these issues as arising from there simply being far too many humans. This is simply factually incorrect. Humans are not the problem. Instead, the problem is the system of capitalism which organises the world, enforcing the logic of profit which decides how the world’s productive capacity is used and how resources and wealth are distributed. It is not the vast majority of humanity which is destroying the planet, waging wars, and causing hunger and starvation, but instead a tiny minority of capitalists. The necessity for continued economic growth is not, as asserted by the authors, a myth, but is instead built into the system of capitalism. Looking for a second just at climate change, the authors themselves repeatedly acknowledge that the turning point for pollution and climate change was not around the dawn of humanity tens of thousands of years ago, but instead the Industrial Revolution a mere few hundred years ago, when the capitalist class had cemented their rule over the western world. They also mention that if the largest producers of consumer goods followed regulatory guidelines and used more sustainable technology they could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 50%. However, they do not see the problem here as the being the capitalist minority, but instead the fault of all of humanity. Did you know that environmental catastrophes during the mining of rare earth metals for use in mobile phones is not the fault of corporations cutting corners as they strive for greater and greater profits, but instead is because people are greedy and want too much stuff and have too many babies?
Through convoluted twists of logic, the authors manage to use the supposed over-abundance of humans as the scape-goat for literally everything, from red pandas dying in the Himalayas, to terrorism, to school students being stressed when applying to tertiary educational institutions. They are adamant that humans are inherently awful people, believing ‘human nature’ encompasses everything from competition, over-consumption and obsession with status symbols to war, closed-mindedness, and intolerance. The Israel-Palestine conflict, it turns out, is not due to British and US imperialists colonising Palestine to gain influence in the oil-rich Middle East, but is somehow because there are too many people, and those people have intransigent religious and cultural beliefs (and also Palestinians are all suicide-bombing terrorists, just for some extra racist flavour). This leads to the authors having absolutely no plan to fix any of the very real problems they describe in their book. They do try to offer suggestions. First of all, they suggest that if rich people went on more holidays to poor countries, they will see they don’t need to buy so much stuff! Next, they are big proponents of green capitalism, suggesting that entrepreneurs stop selling things and instead sell experiences like wind surfing—genius!—and supporting the sorts of carbon pricing schemes which have totally failed in Europe and Australia (“more profits for the good guys”!) But most of all they put the onus on “people” and the “general populace” to “shift their attitudes”, acknowledge that “climate change is real”, overcome the “popular resistance to changing our ways”, stop craving after stuff, stop making babies, and stop having those pesky cultural differences that make us want to kill each other. But this isn’t even a solution going by the internal logic presented by the authors. Aren’t humans greedy monsters? Isn’t human nature inherently awful? By their own logic this is a dead end, and the earth is doomed.
Luckily, there is solution. Already, contrary to the authors’ assertions, most people recognise that climate change is real. It is not the intransigence of the working class which needs to be overcome, but the system of capitalism itself. In the US we have seen the heroic resistance of First Nations peoples and their supporters to the building of oil pipelines. In Australia there have been protests against the Adani Mine. It is direct, public, mass actions like these which can develop the class consciousness of working class people to recognise that it is the corporations, the governments and the police who are the ones destroying the planet. Similarly, while governments may be able to whip up patriotic fervour for a time, most people are generally against war. The historic demonstrations and mobilisations against the Iraq War show that the capitalist class are the ones who choose to go to war, and that it is the working class who oppose war, because it is in our interest to do so. The example of the Russian Revolution of 1917 is both illustrative and inspiring. The ruling class of Russia chose to go to war. They sent the workers and peasants of Russia to die in the trenches, and diverted the countries resources to the war effort leaving those on the home front starving and destitute. The workers and peasants raised the demand for Bread and Peace - they did not want the war, but instead wanted to be able to feed themselves. The Bolshevik Party recognised that neither the aristocracy nor the rising capitalist class was interested in these demands, and therefore could not be pleaded with but instead must be overthrown. Through months of protests and strikes the majority of the working class and peasantry, and thus the majority of the population of the Russian Empire, was won to this position, capitalism in Russia was overthrown, and Russia’s involvement in the war was ended. The Russian Revolution inspired a similar revolution in Germany which, while not successful, did end Germany’s involvement in the war and ended WWI. In Russia, now that the working class controlled production instead of a tiny minority of capitalists, resources could be distributed based on human need, not profit. Laws were passed to establish national parks, and technology was introduced to improve crop yields while minimising environmental degradation. It is this example that we need to follow if we want to see a world free from war, poverty, starvation, pollution and climate change.
This book is indescribably terrible. It lavishes praise on the Chinese One Child policy, implies that multiple waves of colonisation, slavery, and indentured servitude in Mauritius was a positive experience, and somehow thinks the US military and insurance industry are progressive because they acknowledge the existence of climate change. But it is right about one thing. At one point, the authors mention that wishy-washy liberal intellectuals and pro-military conservatives have more in common than they’d like to admit. After reading pages and pages of racist, pro-capitalist, liberal rubbish, all I could think was, “lol tru”.
Don’t read this book. Here are some things you could read instead:
- http://isreview.org/issue/68/are-ther...
- http://marxistleftreview.org/index.ph...
- http://marxistleftreview.org/index.ph...
- http://isj.org.uk/dispelling-the-malt...
- http://marxistleftreview.org/index.ph...
- http://marxistleftreview.org/index.ph...
December 12, 2019
Anthony D Barnosky e Elizabeth A Hardy escreveram em este livro em 2015, e antes de outras considerações quero agradecer aos autores por o terem feito, tanto pela forma elegante, como pelo facto de o terem escrito de uma forma simples, directa e acessível ao mais incauto crente na capacidade humana em alterar o planeta. Gostei muito, e gostei em particular da forma como introduziram cada capítulo com um pouco da vivência pessoal e pala forma como ao longo dos anos foram constatando aquilo que se avizinha, o fim de linha – End Game, Tipping point for planet Earth. Um bom livro, um livro didático que deveria estar tanto nas escolas como na mesa de trabalho dos nossos políticos (ps acho que vou enviar um exemplar ao meu ministro do ambiente).
Ao lê-lo em 2019, verifico que aquilo que descreveram (escrito talvez em 2013 ou 2014) foi premonitório do que se tem vindo a assistir.
Efetivamente tudo o que que os autores referem no capítulo 9 “Guerra”, nomeadamente o que concerne ao ambiente explosivo criado pela pressão populacional que quase todos esquecem, a escassez de alimentos e de água, a energia mais cara e por isso menos acessível, as migrações de populações inteiras, as expectativas frustradas de uma classe média acabada de sair do limiar de pobreza e que agora anseia pelo pleno da sociedade de consumo, tudo isto temperado por lideres políticos locais pouco sérios quando não corruptos, e meios de comunicação social e redes sociais que amplificam e potenciam as fragilidades de cada um, tudo isto retrata o mundo em que vivo e explica, tal como previram os autores, o que se passa em países como Chile, Argentina, Bolívia, Equador, Venezuela, Israel, Palestina, Líbano, Síria, Iraque, Irão, só para citar aqueles que em 2019 estiveram em destaque.
Em tudo isto os autores acertaram, ainda que o não tenham feito de forma eficaz, pois a mensagem dos autores não é de forma alguma a narrativa politicamente correta dos nossos líderes ou daqueles com direito a voz. Digo isto porque é relativamente frequente ver comentadores interpretarem as notícias do dia e acharem que elas são secundárias a lutas pela(s) liberdade(s), sem nunca perceberem que o conceito de liberdade é secundário em relação à sobrevivência de cada um de nós, tanto individualmente mas também enquanto sociedade.
E é de sobrevivência que este livro fala.
Os autores percorrem riscos para a humanidade como as alterações climáticas e a ocorrência de acontecimentos extremos (períodos de seca e tempestades violentas), a escassez de recursos alimentares e de água potável, a poluição e o envenenamento do ar, solo e oceanos pelos químicos usados na produção de alimentos, as guerras germinadas em locais onde a escassez de recursos vai sendo cada vez mais pungente, uma sociedade de consumo com apelos constantes a um crescimento económico que só não é insustentável porque é impossível, e tudo isto sem vislumbre de qualquer limite ou custo ambiental devidamente calculado. E se o descrito já é bastante mau, é ainda potenciado por um denominador que não para de crescer, a população humana, tanto a actual como aquela que se acredita que venha a existir em décadas próximas. Qualquer um destes factores analisado individualmente é suficientemente negativo para nos dar um abanão e acordar para a realidade, mas em conjunto, todos eles actuam potenciando-se entre si, levando ao que David Wallace-Wells descreveu como uma realidade bem pior do que os cenários maus que alguma vez poderia imaginar.
Como referido, há um que enquanto denominador isolado merece uma reflexão mais profunda. Refiro-me ao número de seres humanos que habita o planeta terra – quase oito biliões de almas, e com uma tendência de crescimento em que se prevê que possa atingir 10 a 12 biliões em 2050 e 16 biliões para finais do século 21.
E fizemos este crescimento de 10 milhões de Homeo Sapiens da era pré-histórica para 2 biliões em finais do século XIX e um crescimento de 6 biliões nos últimos 100 anos. É muita gente, são almas a mais.
Com o consumo do século XXI e à luz da tecnologia actual o planeta terra não tem recursos renováveis para enquadrar uma população mundial superior a dois biliões (se atendermos ao consumo do mundo ocidental - EUA). O equilíbrio até há bem pouco foi mantido à custa das assimetrias mundiais de consumo. Na era pré-globalização 1/8 da população consumia 7/8 dos recursos. Este mundo já terminou e 7/8 da população mundial entraram ou estão a entrar na “sociedade de consumo” e pretendem atingir padrões de vida semelhantes aos 1/8 da população mundial que à época da pré-globalização dominavam os recursos do planeta.
Como é bom de ver não há no planeta terra recursos que satisfação tantas expectativas, pelo que os conflitos referidos no início estão bem explicados, eram previsíveis e tendem a aumentar num futuro bem próximo.
Em 2019 a humanidade esgotou os recursos anuais renováveis do planeta em 29 de Julho (Portugal esgotou os seus em 26 de Maio). Desde essa data a humanidade vive das reservas não renováveis do planeta. Com os actuais padrões de consumo são necessários dois planetas terra para sustentar a nossa voracidade. As previsões são bem negras e a elas aplica-se a lei de Clark – “Murphy era um optimista”.
Mas voltemos ao livro. Ao desastre referido pelos autores, eu acrescentaria ainda dois. A perda de biodiversidade que os nossos padrões de consumo implicam como a quebra da harmonia planetária e o número exorbitante de espécies extintas no que sugere ser o Antropoceno o palco de mais uma extinção em massa, e um segundo, que é o número perfeitamente absurdo da proporção entre a vida selvagem e a restante vida animal no planeta. Nesta relação, os animais que consideramos selvagens representam 4% (em tonelagem) do conjunto dos existentes na terra, enquanto que humanos e animais de cultivo e domésticos correspondem a 96% da tonelagem de toda a vida animal existente no planeta. Acho que o ponto de rutura já foi ultrapassado há muito.
Pura e simplesmente não somos sustentáveis a curto/médio prazo, e muito provavelmente desde que deixamos de ser caçadores recolectores que este equilíbrio com o planeta (o equilíbrio que permite sermos uma espécie viável) começou a ser perdido.
Um outro aspecto importante é o facto do crescimento populacional ser exponencial enquanto que os recursos ou não crescem ou se o fazem é como uma escala aritmética. Já no século XVIII, Thomas Robert Malthus tinha observado que o crescimento da população tende a ser exponencial e se os recursos não acompanharem este crescimento algures no gráfico do tempo deixaram de existir recursos suficientes para a sobrevivência da população. Este ponto, e o cenário que se segue foi retratado por Paul Ehrlich em 1968 no seu livro “Population Bomb” onde previa que num mundo com um crescimento de 95 milhões de pessoas por ano, em finais do século XX, algures anos 2000, a pressão populacional num mundo de recursos limitados seria de tal ordem que esse mundo seria de caos e desordem absoluta, um mundo onde a sobrevivência se sobreporia a qualquer valor reconhecido como humana, um mundo algo semelhante ao retratado nos filmes Mad Max.
Este mundo infernal só não ocorreu, e de acordo com os autores, porque foram implementadas novas práticas agrícolas de biotecnologia propostas em finais da década de 1970 por Norman Borlaug , numa revolução agrícola comummente designada como revolução verde, e que levou a um muito significativo aumento na produção de cereais como milho, trigo e arroz um pouco por todo o mundo. Isto deu-nos algum tempo extra, e que agora chegados ao fim de linha parece esta folga estar a terminar.
À revolução verde, factor que balanceou as previsões de Paul Ehrlich, eu acrescentaria o aumento dos cuidados de saúde, o aumento dos níveis de escolaridade e melhoria da equidade entre géneros, que como referiu Hans Rosling foram factores muito importantes para a moderação do crescimento populacional.
De tudo isto, de uma forma ou outra, aqui, neste livro encontrei relatado ou sugerido, e muitas previsões tenho observado da minha bancada sobre os dias que passam. Um livro que em muitos aspectos foi, é premonitório, mas que noutros não soube avisar, não pode prever.
Refiro-me ao retrocesso civilizacional que foi a eleição nos EUA do presidente Trump em 2016, um rude golpe nas expectativas dum mundo melhor, um mundo com futuro.
Não quero contudo terminar esta nota sem fazer referência á esperança que a tenacidade de pessoas com Greta Thunberg, e resiliência de movimentos como o Extintion Rebelium, que com a sua voz vão gritando e agitando as consciências para que os políticos actuem e evitem aquilo que seguramente será o fim de linha para a nossa vida no planeta terra.
End Game. Tipping point for planet earth, um livro para ler e para meditar.
Ao lê-lo em 2019, verifico que aquilo que descreveram (escrito talvez em 2013 ou 2014) foi premonitório do que se tem vindo a assistir.
Efetivamente tudo o que que os autores referem no capítulo 9 “Guerra”, nomeadamente o que concerne ao ambiente explosivo criado pela pressão populacional que quase todos esquecem, a escassez de alimentos e de água, a energia mais cara e por isso menos acessível, as migrações de populações inteiras, as expectativas frustradas de uma classe média acabada de sair do limiar de pobreza e que agora anseia pelo pleno da sociedade de consumo, tudo isto temperado por lideres políticos locais pouco sérios quando não corruptos, e meios de comunicação social e redes sociais que amplificam e potenciam as fragilidades de cada um, tudo isto retrata o mundo em que vivo e explica, tal como previram os autores, o que se passa em países como Chile, Argentina, Bolívia, Equador, Venezuela, Israel, Palestina, Líbano, Síria, Iraque, Irão, só para citar aqueles que em 2019 estiveram em destaque.
Em tudo isto os autores acertaram, ainda que o não tenham feito de forma eficaz, pois a mensagem dos autores não é de forma alguma a narrativa politicamente correta dos nossos líderes ou daqueles com direito a voz. Digo isto porque é relativamente frequente ver comentadores interpretarem as notícias do dia e acharem que elas são secundárias a lutas pela(s) liberdade(s), sem nunca perceberem que o conceito de liberdade é secundário em relação à sobrevivência de cada um de nós, tanto individualmente mas também enquanto sociedade.
E é de sobrevivência que este livro fala.
Os autores percorrem riscos para a humanidade como as alterações climáticas e a ocorrência de acontecimentos extremos (períodos de seca e tempestades violentas), a escassez de recursos alimentares e de água potável, a poluição e o envenenamento do ar, solo e oceanos pelos químicos usados na produção de alimentos, as guerras germinadas em locais onde a escassez de recursos vai sendo cada vez mais pungente, uma sociedade de consumo com apelos constantes a um crescimento económico que só não é insustentável porque é impossível, e tudo isto sem vislumbre de qualquer limite ou custo ambiental devidamente calculado. E se o descrito já é bastante mau, é ainda potenciado por um denominador que não para de crescer, a população humana, tanto a actual como aquela que se acredita que venha a existir em décadas próximas. Qualquer um destes factores analisado individualmente é suficientemente negativo para nos dar um abanão e acordar para a realidade, mas em conjunto, todos eles actuam potenciando-se entre si, levando ao que David Wallace-Wells descreveu como uma realidade bem pior do que os cenários maus que alguma vez poderia imaginar.
Como referido, há um que enquanto denominador isolado merece uma reflexão mais profunda. Refiro-me ao número de seres humanos que habita o planeta terra – quase oito biliões de almas, e com uma tendência de crescimento em que se prevê que possa atingir 10 a 12 biliões em 2050 e 16 biliões para finais do século 21.
E fizemos este crescimento de 10 milhões de Homeo Sapiens da era pré-histórica para 2 biliões em finais do século XIX e um crescimento de 6 biliões nos últimos 100 anos. É muita gente, são almas a mais.
Com o consumo do século XXI e à luz da tecnologia actual o planeta terra não tem recursos renováveis para enquadrar uma população mundial superior a dois biliões (se atendermos ao consumo do mundo ocidental - EUA). O equilíbrio até há bem pouco foi mantido à custa das assimetrias mundiais de consumo. Na era pré-globalização 1/8 da população consumia 7/8 dos recursos. Este mundo já terminou e 7/8 da população mundial entraram ou estão a entrar na “sociedade de consumo” e pretendem atingir padrões de vida semelhantes aos 1/8 da população mundial que à época da pré-globalização dominavam os recursos do planeta.
Como é bom de ver não há no planeta terra recursos que satisfação tantas expectativas, pelo que os conflitos referidos no início estão bem explicados, eram previsíveis e tendem a aumentar num futuro bem próximo.
Em 2019 a humanidade esgotou os recursos anuais renováveis do planeta em 29 de Julho (Portugal esgotou os seus em 26 de Maio). Desde essa data a humanidade vive das reservas não renováveis do planeta. Com os actuais padrões de consumo são necessários dois planetas terra para sustentar a nossa voracidade. As previsões são bem negras e a elas aplica-se a lei de Clark – “Murphy era um optimista”.
Mas voltemos ao livro. Ao desastre referido pelos autores, eu acrescentaria ainda dois. A perda de biodiversidade que os nossos padrões de consumo implicam como a quebra da harmonia planetária e o número exorbitante de espécies extintas no que sugere ser o Antropoceno o palco de mais uma extinção em massa, e um segundo, que é o número perfeitamente absurdo da proporção entre a vida selvagem e a restante vida animal no planeta. Nesta relação, os animais que consideramos selvagens representam 4% (em tonelagem) do conjunto dos existentes na terra, enquanto que humanos e animais de cultivo e domésticos correspondem a 96% da tonelagem de toda a vida animal existente no planeta. Acho que o ponto de rutura já foi ultrapassado há muito.
Pura e simplesmente não somos sustentáveis a curto/médio prazo, e muito provavelmente desde que deixamos de ser caçadores recolectores que este equilíbrio com o planeta (o equilíbrio que permite sermos uma espécie viável) começou a ser perdido.
Um outro aspecto importante é o facto do crescimento populacional ser exponencial enquanto que os recursos ou não crescem ou se o fazem é como uma escala aritmética. Já no século XVIII, Thomas Robert Malthus tinha observado que o crescimento da população tende a ser exponencial e se os recursos não acompanharem este crescimento algures no gráfico do tempo deixaram de existir recursos suficientes para a sobrevivência da população. Este ponto, e o cenário que se segue foi retratado por Paul Ehrlich em 1968 no seu livro “Population Bomb” onde previa que num mundo com um crescimento de 95 milhões de pessoas por ano, em finais do século XX, algures anos 2000, a pressão populacional num mundo de recursos limitados seria de tal ordem que esse mundo seria de caos e desordem absoluta, um mundo onde a sobrevivência se sobreporia a qualquer valor reconhecido como humana, um mundo algo semelhante ao retratado nos filmes Mad Max.
Este mundo infernal só não ocorreu, e de acordo com os autores, porque foram implementadas novas práticas agrícolas de biotecnologia propostas em finais da década de 1970 por Norman Borlaug , numa revolução agrícola comummente designada como revolução verde, e que levou a um muito significativo aumento na produção de cereais como milho, trigo e arroz um pouco por todo o mundo. Isto deu-nos algum tempo extra, e que agora chegados ao fim de linha parece esta folga estar a terminar.
À revolução verde, factor que balanceou as previsões de Paul Ehrlich, eu acrescentaria o aumento dos cuidados de saúde, o aumento dos níveis de escolaridade e melhoria da equidade entre géneros, que como referiu Hans Rosling foram factores muito importantes para a moderação do crescimento populacional.
De tudo isto, de uma forma ou outra, aqui, neste livro encontrei relatado ou sugerido, e muitas previsões tenho observado da minha bancada sobre os dias que passam. Um livro que em muitos aspectos foi, é premonitório, mas que noutros não soube avisar, não pode prever.
Refiro-me ao retrocesso civilizacional que foi a eleição nos EUA do presidente Trump em 2016, um rude golpe nas expectativas dum mundo melhor, um mundo com futuro.
Não quero contudo terminar esta nota sem fazer referência á esperança que a tenacidade de pessoas com Greta Thunberg, e resiliência de movimentos como o Extintion Rebelium, que com a sua voz vão gritando e agitando as consciências para que os políticos actuem e evitem aquilo que seguramente será o fim de linha para a nossa vida no planeta terra.
End Game. Tipping point for planet earth, um livro para ler e para meditar.
March 30, 2016
If I was to recommend a book for anyone to read in 2016, it would be this one. Pretty depressing reading (i found myself only reading one chapter at a time to digest the info!)... but so important for opening our eyes to what the future potentially holds in these days of mass consumerism. Well written (the intro chapter is a bit flowery, but stick with it) Really enjoyed how each chapter was introduced with a first hand experience from the authors. Try to take home the message, it's not too late to implement change.
May 4, 2019
Olipa huono kirja. Aihepiiri oli tuttua lukuisista muista ilmastonmuutoskirjoista, mutta tämä oli vain joka suhteessa heikko. Teksti ei ollut kiinnostavaa, kirjoittajien omakohtaiset kokemukset lähinnä vaivaannuttavia ja jopa rasistisia, ja suomennoskin paikoin kehnonlaista.
April 13, 2018
This book has a tremendous effect on me and my life decisions.
Made me stick a note on my wall. A note that reminds me of the planet earth problems and how me as citizen of the world can try to contribute to a solution.
1. Overpopulation
Solutions:
- Educate women
- Provide women with economic opportunities
- Provide women access to health care
2. Overconsumption
- Spend money on experiences rather than things
- Design products with low environmental footprints
- Ramp up recycling or reuse efficiency worldwide
3. Climate Change
- Replace fossil fuel with carbon-neutral energy sources
4. Food
- Eat less meat
- Waste less food
- Increase efficiency in agriculture using environmentally sound methods.
- Improve food storage and distribution system
5. Water
- Waste less
- Contaminate less
- International water compacts
- More efficient agriculture
- Shift to wind and solar energy generation
6. Pollution
- Provide basic sanitation services to billions lacking
- Convert waste product to energy
- Utilize green chemistry in new product development
- Regulate and monitor the use of pesticides, herbicides and antibiotics.
7. Disease
- Keep track of vectors as they move across borders and through transportation system
- Anticipate disease from the tropics
- Hold deforestation to absolute minimum
- Don’t kill the bats, they are more significant ecosystem providers than they are disease distributors
8. War
- Hold population growth and climate change to lower level
- Ensure adequate food, water, basic health services, and education worldwide
Made me stick a note on my wall. A note that reminds me of the planet earth problems and how me as citizen of the world can try to contribute to a solution.
1. Overpopulation
Solutions:
- Educate women
- Provide women with economic opportunities
- Provide women access to health care
2. Overconsumption
- Spend money on experiences rather than things
- Design products with low environmental footprints
- Ramp up recycling or reuse efficiency worldwide
3. Climate Change
- Replace fossil fuel with carbon-neutral energy sources
4. Food
- Eat less meat
- Waste less food
- Increase efficiency in agriculture using environmentally sound methods.
- Improve food storage and distribution system
5. Water
- Waste less
- Contaminate less
- International water compacts
- More efficient agriculture
- Shift to wind and solar energy generation
6. Pollution
- Provide basic sanitation services to billions lacking
- Convert waste product to energy
- Utilize green chemistry in new product development
- Regulate and monitor the use of pesticides, herbicides and antibiotics.
7. Disease
- Keep track of vectors as they move across borders and through transportation system
- Anticipate disease from the tropics
- Hold deforestation to absolute minimum
- Don’t kill the bats, they are more significant ecosystem providers than they are disease distributors
8. War
- Hold population growth and climate change to lower level
- Ensure adequate food, water, basic health services, and education worldwide
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
May 10, 2016
Any literate person would be at least remotely familiar with the litany of problems discussed in this book. The majority (circa 60%) of us appear to be indifferent, perhaps resigned to the way things are, or too caught up with daily living to worry about global issues. Any combination of these problems could push us over the edge, with pressure building up such that the planet goes into a new and different state due to tipping points being breached. This is not difficult to imagine, the classic root causes of overpopulation and overconsumption already well known.
Still, this book provides a good summary of the key threats to humanity. However the very broad range covered makes it somewhat less useful as a practical guide, though the authors do identify population and climate change as the biggest threats. Personally I am still inclined to believe that resource shortage, specifically of fossil fuels would be the achilles heel that brings about the end of our industrial civilization.
In my review of Barnosky's other book Dodging Extinction: Power, Food, Money, and the Future of Life on Earth I remarked that the optimism at the end seemed rather uncalled for. Again in this book it is argued, without any substantiation, that it is not too late to change our course for the better. However nothing that has happened to date point towards a reversal of the negative trends outlined. I would even argue that nothing good has come out of our 'advancement' since the invention of agriculture!
Still, this book provides a good summary of the key threats to humanity. However the very broad range covered makes it somewhat less useful as a practical guide, though the authors do identify population and climate change as the biggest threats. Personally I am still inclined to believe that resource shortage, specifically of fossil fuels would be the achilles heel that brings about the end of our industrial civilization.
In my review of Barnosky's other book Dodging Extinction: Power, Food, Money, and the Future of Life on Earth I remarked that the optimism at the end seemed rather uncalled for. Again in this book it is argued, without any substantiation, that it is not too late to change our course for the better. However nothing that has happened to date point towards a reversal of the negative trends outlined. I would even argue that nothing good has come out of our 'advancement' since the invention of agriculture!
August 15, 2015
[cw: r*pe, murder, war, other terrible things]
This book is filled with things that I already knew (for the most part); things that I keep 'forgetting' so that I don't get too depressed. The world is headed for some bad times if we don't all start rallying together and doing what we can to make it better, to save it.
This is a great informative read, and really pushes the point that NOW is the time that we need to act (or yesterday really) and that we might be able to save ourselves, if we try really damn hard.
The book covers all the various ways that things are and can go wrong for the earth and talks about how we can stop things from falling over the cliff.
This book is filled with things that I already knew (for the most part); things that I keep 'forgetting' so that I don't get too depressed. The world is headed for some bad times if we don't all start rallying together and doing what we can to make it better, to save it.
This is a great informative read, and really pushes the point that NOW is the time that we need to act (or yesterday really) and that we might be able to save ourselves, if we try really damn hard.
The book covers all the various ways that things are and can go wrong for the earth and talks about how we can stop things from falling over the cliff.
November 1, 2017
Teoksessa on tiettyjä ärsyttäviä piirteitä, joita joku on toisaalla laveammin kritisoinut, mutta luin silti kokonaan, koska saahan tästä yhden näkökulman keskusteluun, olkoonkin etuoikeutetun ja monia yhteiskunnallisia ilmiöitä liian pinnallisesti tarkastelevan sellaisen. Suomennokseen on jäänyt aika paljon painovirheitä. Luultavasti nyt olisi hyvä lukea Naomi Kleinin Tämä muuttaa kaiken (2014) sekä tuorein Hyvän sään aikana (Nikkanen ym.), jossa näkökulma on suomalaisittain kotoisampi.
July 13, 2019
Whilst rather depressing at times, this book presents a no barred approach to presenting the various scenarios that have the potential to happen in the not so distance future.
It's easy reading in terms of how scientific it is - it's not like reading an academic journal which made it all the more refreshing to read as it simply lays out mankind's future challenges in rather plain english.
Everyone should read this at least once regardless of your stance on the issues covered in the book.
It's easy reading in terms of how scientific it is - it's not like reading an academic journal which made it all the more refreshing to read as it simply lays out mankind's future challenges in rather plain english.
Everyone should read this at least once regardless of your stance on the issues covered in the book.
June 13, 2022
Bit too negative book because only showed everything thats going wrong and no solutions to the problems, but if u read this first and Faktojen Maailma after that u shall have better view of whats going on
April 4, 2025
Well written. A good review on the various tipping points of our planet. Interesting, timely and captivating. Kinda predicted the Israeli-Palestinian conflict escalation 10 years before it happened (even though not all the details).
October 30, 2019
It was a decent read, maybe already a bit outdated.
October 8, 2016
This was an interesting read. The authors have attempted to show how various trends in modern life are bringing us all towards nearly irreversible global climate and resource changes within probably two human lifetimes as the world somewhat invisible settles into new less climate friendly 'normals'. Much of what they have to say is common sense and is reported in the media but are nevertheless things many of us do not like to think about too much or think 'other people' can deal with the problems.
The book is divided into the following sections. Each section is prefaced with a real world example of the issue the authors have themselves experienced:
* People (overpopulation)
* Stuff (the things we buy)
* Storms (weather and climate change)
* Hunger (food scarcity)
* Thirst (the destruction and overuse of fresh water resources)
* Toxins (pollution)
* Disease (new diseases as resources are used up)
* War (scarcity and overpopulation lead to war)
The book attempts to provide some solutions or at least a guide-line to the direction we need to move, though I have to say personally I see little proof our political/economic elites will do anything truly constructive until real disaster strikes. Its been obvious for some time one the greatest mistakes we can make is to think "climate" is separate from our other problems most of which start with overpopulation and aggressive resource use - something there seems to be little willingness to address these days. These sorts of books are important, if somewhat depressing, but I suspect they will not generate the change that they should. I found this copy in a discount pile which would indicate to me its not exactly a best seller.
The book is divided into the following sections. Each section is prefaced with a real world example of the issue the authors have themselves experienced:
* People (overpopulation)
* Stuff (the things we buy)
* Storms (weather and climate change)
* Hunger (food scarcity)
* Thirst (the destruction and overuse of fresh water resources)
* Toxins (pollution)
* Disease (new diseases as resources are used up)
* War (scarcity and overpopulation lead to war)
The book attempts to provide some solutions or at least a guide-line to the direction we need to move, though I have to say personally I see little proof our political/economic elites will do anything truly constructive until real disaster strikes. Its been obvious for some time one the greatest mistakes we can make is to think "climate" is separate from our other problems most of which start with overpopulation and aggressive resource use - something there seems to be little willingness to address these days. These sorts of books are important, if somewhat depressing, but I suspect they will not generate the change that they should. I found this copy in a discount pile which would indicate to me its not exactly a best seller.
May 18, 2016
While this book creates environmental awareness and has a bit of the authors personal stories tied together with the issues they discuss, it has the classic problem of environmental communication in my opinion: the apocalypse approach. Skip this if you already know all the chaos and negativity that might happen from other sources.
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