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The New Case for Gold
"They say" John Maynard Keynes called gold a "barbarous relic." "They say" there isn t enough gold to support finance and commerce. "They say" the gold supply can t increase fast enough to support world growth. "They re wrong. "In this bold manifesto, bestselling author and economic commentator James Rickards steps forward to defend gold as both an irreplaceable store of wealth and a standard for currency. Global political instability and market volatility are on the rise. Gold, always a prudent asset to own, has become the single most important wealth preservation tool for banks and individuals alike. Rickards draws on historical case studies, monetary theory, and personal experience as an investor to argue that: The next financial collapse will be exponentially bigger than the panic of 2008. The time will come, sooner rather than later, when there will be panic buying and only central banks, hedge funds, and other big players will be able to buy any gold at all. It s not too late to prepare ourselves as a nation: there s always enough gold for a gold standard if we specify a stable, nondeflationary price. Providing clear instructions on how much gold to buy and where to store it, the short, provocative argument in this book will change the way you look at this barbarous relic forever."
192 pages, Hardcover
First published April 5, 2016
200 people are currently reading
1288 people want to read
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 124 reviews
May 25, 2016
"Gold is intrinsically worthless or intrinsically priceless. You can build a financial model to value it, but every input is just going to be your imagination..." - Mark Levitt
I write as someone whose semester-long capstone course for the political science major was "Lessons of the Great Depression," in which I read all of the same major academic literature (Keynes, Friedman, Eichengreen, Bernanke, etc.) that this book alternates between citing from or dismissing. This author either misread– or deliberately misrepresents – the reasoned conclusions of this research into why having a gold-based monetary system is a very, very bad idea (e.g. Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919-1939). Nor does he mention gold's numerous public policy downsides for a modern economy, such as the inability of governments to finance popular social insurance programs... which on second thought, may not be downsides to this author (as I note the Ron Paul endorsement on the dust jacket). I just want to clear the air about that, because if you don't share this book's underlying "sky is falling" economic assumptions, his argument that an ounce of gold will inevitably be worth up to $10,000 – so you should stake a major chunk of your life savings speculating on these intrinsically worthless rocks, instead of investing in productive assets – doesn't make any sense, once the veneer of supportive peer-reviewed evidence falls away.
I write as someone whose semester-long capstone course for the political science major was "Lessons of the Great Depression," in which I read all of the same major academic literature (Keynes, Friedman, Eichengreen, Bernanke, etc.) that this book alternates between citing from or dismissing. This author either misread– or deliberately misrepresents – the reasoned conclusions of this research into why having a gold-based monetary system is a very, very bad idea (e.g. Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919-1939). Nor does he mention gold's numerous public policy downsides for a modern economy, such as the inability of governments to finance popular social insurance programs... which on second thought, may not be downsides to this author (as I note the Ron Paul endorsement on the dust jacket). I just want to clear the air about that, because if you don't share this book's underlying "sky is falling" economic assumptions, his argument that an ounce of gold will inevitably be worth up to $10,000 – so you should stake a major chunk of your life savings speculating on these intrinsically worthless rocks, instead of investing in productive assets – doesn't make any sense, once the veneer of supportive peer-reviewed evidence falls away.
April 6, 2016
A very good book that explains why the fiat currency system is doomed to fail at some point in the not too distant future. Most governments (most importantly to us, the U.S.) are running huge deficits and are printing money to pay their debt interest. They are only able to even come close to paying the debt payments because interest rates are near Zero. There is no actual asset backing the dollar except the trust that the government will make good on their promises to pay their debts. But, confidence could be shattered when the debt becomes too big to manage and the confidence in the worthless paper money becomes a reality for "Joe Average" citizen. Hyper inflation could result as people try to spend what money they have now while it still has some purchasing power. In the panic, banks could close to avoid a run in the bank (as happened in Greece and Cyprus already). Stores would run low on food and other items and it could spiral into a nasty level of unrest.
So if the fiat money is doomed this author points to many reasons why gold as a "Store of value" is the best substitute for paper currency. Gold can be as small as 1 oz coins or 1 KG bars and does not tarnish, rust or break down over time and for all of humanity it has always been welcomed as a rare and valuable asset that can be traded for other assets. He believes in a financial currency collapse that the major world powers would have to come up with a new currency that will have some backing on gold so that people can trust it. For this to work this currency would have to value Gold at near $10,000- $50,000 per ounce. Anything close to the present level would only result in hyper inflation even with a new currency.
His conclusion is to accumulate gold soon, as he believes once a financial crisis is obvious, most of the gold vendors that you can presently buy gold coins or bars from will have no supply left to sell (at any price) as the big Governments such as China, Germany, Russia and the Oil Rich middle east countries (which have already started accumulating gold in record quantities) will buy up everything the Miners can produce before the gold ever gets to the retail gold vendors.
A very interesting and short (4-5 hr) audio book that I highly suggest people read or listen to soon.
It may feel like a bit like of a doomsday scenario but logic dictates that a government can not go on indefinitely printing more and more money with nothing backing it, without having some nasty consequences when people lose faith in the currency.
So if the fiat money is doomed this author points to many reasons why gold as a "Store of value" is the best substitute for paper currency. Gold can be as small as 1 oz coins or 1 KG bars and does not tarnish, rust or break down over time and for all of humanity it has always been welcomed as a rare and valuable asset that can be traded for other assets. He believes in a financial currency collapse that the major world powers would have to come up with a new currency that will have some backing on gold so that people can trust it. For this to work this currency would have to value Gold at near $10,000- $50,000 per ounce. Anything close to the present level would only result in hyper inflation even with a new currency.
His conclusion is to accumulate gold soon, as he believes once a financial crisis is obvious, most of the gold vendors that you can presently buy gold coins or bars from will have no supply left to sell (at any price) as the big Governments such as China, Germany, Russia and the Oil Rich middle east countries (which have already started accumulating gold in record quantities) will buy up everything the Miners can produce before the gold ever gets to the retail gold vendors.
A very interesting and short (4-5 hr) audio book that I highly suggest people read or listen to soon.
It may feel like a bit like of a doomsday scenario but logic dictates that a government can not go on indefinitely printing more and more money with nothing backing it, without having some nasty consequences when people lose faith in the currency.
February 6, 2017
This book was constructed from a series of taped audio interviews, and it shows. There are repetitions, chapters overlap, parts of the argument are glossed over, it uses a spoken not a literary vocabulary.
If you are expecting this to be an impassioned plea to sell everything and buy gold, you would be quite wrong. Rickard recommends you don't touch your non-liquid assets - house, land, business, revenue streams - and only use 10% of your investment portfolio to buy gold bullion. Keep a balanced portfolio. This is nothing new. The word "new" should be dropped from the title.
On page 10, Rickard says "Inflation transfers wealth from rich to poor, from savers to debtors, and from citizens to government. Inflation is the preferred policy of socialists and progressives who favor income distribution. The objection to gold based on mining output is not that it stands in the way of growth, but that it stands in the way of theft." You can gather, from that, that Rickard doesn't like socialists, he wants small government that favor rich people, and, for him, there is nothing wrong with recession.
Later Rickard admits that severe recession will cause chaos, riots, demonstrations, political instability. On page 140 he writes "If an economy is in distress, riots over money will be breaking out, people will be demanding their money back, and social unrest will go from bad to worse. A neo-fascist response cannot be ruled out." It is no wonder that government don't like deflation when it can lead to negative growth, followed by riots and a neofascist response. But - according to Rickard - if you have gold bullion, you will be relatively unscathed by the unfolding disaster.
Near the end on page 169 he concludes that "fine art and land have many of the same wealth preservation properties as gold, but still add diversification to a portfolio." He concedes that gold is not the only way to protect your investments in troubled times.
As for gold mining shares, he gives very little advice. They are like physical gold on steroids. They go up faster than gold, and they plummet faster than gold. Gold mining shares are not generic but each mining company is idiosyncratic - based on their management, the quality of the ore, the historical performance and so on. You have to have a depth of knowledge in order to pick the right ones. "Basically, you have to be an equity analyst, which is what I'm trained to do, but I don't do that kind of analysis because it's not my area of expertise." (Page 160) There is very little advice there, and that is a huge gap in the book.
Finally it all comes down to timing. When do you buy gold and when do you sell gold?. If you bought in 2011 and sold in 2016 you would have lost 30% on your capital, and -remember this - there is no yield, no dividends, no interest on physical gold.
Finally I enjoyed reading about the location for your gold deposits and on page 155 he says "Australia is another good option, but of course, it's not close to anywhere. (Australia works fine if you live in Australia.)" I live in Australia, so I guess that's fine for me.
If you are expecting this to be an impassioned plea to sell everything and buy gold, you would be quite wrong. Rickard recommends you don't touch your non-liquid assets - house, land, business, revenue streams - and only use 10% of your investment portfolio to buy gold bullion. Keep a balanced portfolio. This is nothing new. The word "new" should be dropped from the title.
On page 10, Rickard says "Inflation transfers wealth from rich to poor, from savers to debtors, and from citizens to government. Inflation is the preferred policy of socialists and progressives who favor income distribution. The objection to gold based on mining output is not that it stands in the way of growth, but that it stands in the way of theft." You can gather, from that, that Rickard doesn't like socialists, he wants small government that favor rich people, and, for him, there is nothing wrong with recession.
Later Rickard admits that severe recession will cause chaos, riots, demonstrations, political instability. On page 140 he writes "If an economy is in distress, riots over money will be breaking out, people will be demanding their money back, and social unrest will go from bad to worse. A neo-fascist response cannot be ruled out." It is no wonder that government don't like deflation when it can lead to negative growth, followed by riots and a neofascist response. But - according to Rickard - if you have gold bullion, you will be relatively unscathed by the unfolding disaster.
Near the end on page 169 he concludes that "fine art and land have many of the same wealth preservation properties as gold, but still add diversification to a portfolio." He concedes that gold is not the only way to protect your investments in troubled times.
As for gold mining shares, he gives very little advice. They are like physical gold on steroids. They go up faster than gold, and they plummet faster than gold. Gold mining shares are not generic but each mining company is idiosyncratic - based on their management, the quality of the ore, the historical performance and so on. You have to have a depth of knowledge in order to pick the right ones. "Basically, you have to be an equity analyst, which is what I'm trained to do, but I don't do that kind of analysis because it's not my area of expertise." (Page 160) There is very little advice there, and that is a huge gap in the book.
Finally it all comes down to timing. When do you buy gold and when do you sell gold?. If you bought in 2011 and sold in 2016 you would have lost 30% on your capital, and -remember this - there is no yield, no dividends, no interest on physical gold.
Finally I enjoyed reading about the location for your gold deposits and on page 155 he says "Australia is another good option, but of course, it's not close to anywhere. (Australia works fine if you live in Australia.)" I live in Australia, so I guess that's fine for me.
November 7, 2022
Gold is good. And this gave me a few new reasons why
April 23, 2016
I think that the case, as it is, can't be better argued. The book is eminently quotable and it's argument solidly conducted.
"A bank deposit is not money; it’s a bank’s unsecured liability." "Bank depositors in Cyprus in 2013, and Greece in 2015, received a painful education in the difference between a bank deposit and money." "Money can be a medium of exchange, a store of value, and a unit of account, but true money is not a risk asset."
"My point was that the entire edifice of the Federal Reserve and the dollar rests on a single point of failure—confidence."
"As a practical matter, honest citizens cannot get access to large quantities of cash without being suspected of drug dealing, terrorism, or tax evasion." but "Digital wealth is subject to power outages, infrastructure and exchange collapses, hackers, and online theft."
Going on to our dyspotian future: "Finance was a little bit like grease on the gears—a necessary ingredient but not the engine itself. But in the last thirty years, finance has metastasized: it has become like a cancer. It acts as a parasite on productive activity." Michael Hudson wouldn't state the following any better: "Finance does not create wealth; it extracts wealth from other sectors of the economy using inside information and government subsidies to do so. It’s a parasitic or so-called rentier activity. Finance needs to be contained before it triggers the next crash. This involves breaking up big banks, banning most derivatives, and constraining the money supply."
The narrative ultimately flirts with full dystopia: "The State of Texas is building a state bullion depository outside the banking system. Texas will rely on state sovereignty and the Tenth Amendment of the U.S. Constitution to resist any efforts by the federal government to confiscate gold. That’s an option definitely worth looking into. It’s only a one- or two-day drive by car from most of the continental United States. In an extreme situation, you should be able to drive down to Texas, pick up your gold, and drive home before the highways are closed. If the highways are clogged, use a motorcycle."
So: A great read, some valuable practical lessons and advice, and very intelligent speculation on the more than likely dystopian future being built right now.
"A bank deposit is not money; it’s a bank’s unsecured liability." "Bank depositors in Cyprus in 2013, and Greece in 2015, received a painful education in the difference between a bank deposit and money." "Money can be a medium of exchange, a store of value, and a unit of account, but true money is not a risk asset."
"My point was that the entire edifice of the Federal Reserve and the dollar rests on a single point of failure—confidence."
"As a practical matter, honest citizens cannot get access to large quantities of cash without being suspected of drug dealing, terrorism, or tax evasion." but "Digital wealth is subject to power outages, infrastructure and exchange collapses, hackers, and online theft."
Going on to our dyspotian future: "Finance was a little bit like grease on the gears—a necessary ingredient but not the engine itself. But in the last thirty years, finance has metastasized: it has become like a cancer. It acts as a parasite on productive activity." Michael Hudson wouldn't state the following any better: "Finance does not create wealth; it extracts wealth from other sectors of the economy using inside information and government subsidies to do so. It’s a parasitic or so-called rentier activity. Finance needs to be contained before it triggers the next crash. This involves breaking up big banks, banning most derivatives, and constraining the money supply."
The narrative ultimately flirts with full dystopia: "The State of Texas is building a state bullion depository outside the banking system. Texas will rely on state sovereignty and the Tenth Amendment of the U.S. Constitution to resist any efforts by the federal government to confiscate gold. That’s an option definitely worth looking into. It’s only a one- or two-day drive by car from most of the continental United States. In an extreme situation, you should be able to drive down to Texas, pick up your gold, and drive home before the highways are closed. If the highways are clogged, use a motorcycle."
So: A great read, some valuable practical lessons and advice, and very intelligent speculation on the more than likely dystopian future being built right now.
April 15, 2016
I am giving it three stars because I am not sure what it adds and who the audience is. If you don't think gold should be an investment, I don't think the book is good enough to make you change your mind. If you are a "gold" bug, you probably won't read anything new, but will probably enjoy the book because it just affirms your view that fiat currencies and Fed monetary policy are worthless.
When I read his argument about Chinese gold purchases and their desire to be able to emerge with a gold backed currency after the next crisis, I just wonder why anyone would trust China even if they claimed to have a gold back currency. The United States is transparent and has some rule of law, and we have stolen gold from our citizens and left the gold standard before, why would anyone trust a Chinese government that has no qualms about manipulating its own stock market?
The author also hedges his positions and provides good advice about storing gold, but overall, I don't know if I would recommend this book.
When I read his argument about Chinese gold purchases and their desire to be able to emerge with a gold backed currency after the next crisis, I just wonder why anyone would trust China even if they claimed to have a gold back currency. The United States is transparent and has some rule of law, and we have stolen gold from our citizens and left the gold standard before, why would anyone trust a Chinese government that has no qualms about manipulating its own stock market?
The author also hedges his positions and provides good advice about storing gold, but overall, I don't know if I would recommend this book.
April 17, 2016
An excellent description of the world of gold and how the metal relates to international finance. The author recommends holding about 10% of one’s assets in gold. He is expecting a major collapse of the world’s financial system. One’s gold holdings will act as a “lifeboat” to that event. However, timing is problematic – could happen within weeks or a couple of years.
5 stars.
5 stars.
April 20, 2016
A great point of reference from a somewhat more believable voice in a sea of conspiracy theorists and preppers. Rickards has a better grasp than most on why the significance of gold is downplayed, and -- despite appearances -- how important gold truly is on the world stage and in the U.S. financial system. A solid book without fluff and filler, which I really appreciate too.
May 9, 2016
Succinct Status Report and Round-up
Simple arguments are often the best, and they are made well in this book. Jim's understanding of and work experience in "complex" financial systems enables him to cut through the bull.
Simple arguments are often the best, and they are made well in this book. Jim's understanding of and work experience in "complex" financial systems enables him to cut through the bull.
June 20, 2024
Having an all-weather portfolio is essential for investing. Apart from risk management, diversification can also offer superior returns in the event of a downturn. Gold, as an asset class, has provided us with a tool to diversify our portfolio, and historically, the price of the metal has given gigantic returns (in terms of rupees).
The benefits of holding gold as part of our portfolio are many.
1. Gold offers a hedge against inflation – that is, when the purchasing power of the rupee goes down, the value of gold increases. Let me explain this with an example: consider the time when our parents got married in the mid-1970s. They could have spent a sum of Rs. 2000 for the marriage and purchased gold worth Rs. 1000 for 10 grams. Today, we can barely buy a good shirt and jeans for the sum of Rs. 2000, but the price of the same 10 grams of gold has increased to Rs. 66,000.
2. Gold holds high liquidity compared to other asset classes. You cannot sell a piece of land or a house immediately whenever you want, while there are always takers for gold in the market.
3. Gold can also be easily pledged for a loan.
4. Gold has a substantial amount of negative correlation with equity and interest rates. That is, when interest rates and the equity market go down, the price of gold tends to increase. This provides enough room for healthy diversification in a portfolio.
5. Lastly, the trading volumes of gold are always higher, hence the gold market is inherently global.
This book delves into the geopolitics of gold. With China and other central banks acquiring gold at a faster rate, they are preparing for a day to safeguard their forex with gold when the dollar loses its value. Will the dollar ever lose its value? Weighing uncertainties and preparing for them is part of risk management. With the US-Saudi petrodollar agreement of 1973 coming to an end on its fiftieth year, and with countries developing their own exchange currencies for bilateral trade, we can clearly see the emergence of alternatives. Eventually, if there is a point when the tables would be turned, the country with the highest gold in its vault will have a louder voice at the negotiation table.
How much gold should one hold? The author suggests 10% in physical gold. However, for small investors who do not have the capital to buy physical gold, the best option is to buy Gold ETFs that can mimic the price of gold. However, I would recommend holding at least 25% in gold, especially if one is already exposed to global equity markets. For a country with a higher inflation rate like India, gold is a must-hold asset.
The benefits of holding gold as part of our portfolio are many.
1. Gold offers a hedge against inflation – that is, when the purchasing power of the rupee goes down, the value of gold increases. Let me explain this with an example: consider the time when our parents got married in the mid-1970s. They could have spent a sum of Rs. 2000 for the marriage and purchased gold worth Rs. 1000 for 10 grams. Today, we can barely buy a good shirt and jeans for the sum of Rs. 2000, but the price of the same 10 grams of gold has increased to Rs. 66,000.
2. Gold holds high liquidity compared to other asset classes. You cannot sell a piece of land or a house immediately whenever you want, while there are always takers for gold in the market.
3. Gold can also be easily pledged for a loan.
4. Gold has a substantial amount of negative correlation with equity and interest rates. That is, when interest rates and the equity market go down, the price of gold tends to increase. This provides enough room for healthy diversification in a portfolio.
5. Lastly, the trading volumes of gold are always higher, hence the gold market is inherently global.
This book delves into the geopolitics of gold. With China and other central banks acquiring gold at a faster rate, they are preparing for a day to safeguard their forex with gold when the dollar loses its value. Will the dollar ever lose its value? Weighing uncertainties and preparing for them is part of risk management. With the US-Saudi petrodollar agreement of 1973 coming to an end on its fiftieth year, and with countries developing their own exchange currencies for bilateral trade, we can clearly see the emergence of alternatives. Eventually, if there is a point when the tables would be turned, the country with the highest gold in its vault will have a louder voice at the negotiation table.
How much gold should one hold? The author suggests 10% in physical gold. However, for small investors who do not have the capital to buy physical gold, the best option is to buy Gold ETFs that can mimic the price of gold. However, I would recommend holding at least 25% in gold, especially if one is already exposed to global equity markets. For a country with a higher inflation rate like India, gold is a must-hold asset.
October 20, 2023
The New Case for Gold by James Rickards, বাংলা অনুবাদ: গোল্ড ইজ মানি
এই বইটিতে মানবসভ্যতায় মুদ্রার ইতিহাস থেকে শুরু করে বর্তমান বৈশ্বিক অর্থনীতির অনিবার্য পরিণতি নিয়ে আলোচনা করা হয়েছে। ইউরোপে ব্যাংকব্যবস্থার উত্থানের পর গোল্ডস্ট্যান্ডার্ড ভিত্তিক কাগুজে মুদ্রার প্রচলন শুরু হলেও দুটো বিশ্বযুদ্ধসহ বিভিন্ন কারণে ১৯৭১ এ মার্কিন প্রেসিডেন্ট রিচার্ড নিক্সন যখন ডলারের বিপরীতে থাকা গোল্ড স্ট্যান্ডার্ড বাতিল করার ঘোষণা দেয় তখন ডলারের প্রতি পৃথিবীবাসী আস্থা হারিয়ে ফেলে আর ডলারও পড়ে যায় হুমকির মুখে। ১৯৭৩ সালে কিসিঞ্জার যখন সৌদি আরবের বাদশাহ ফয়সালের সাথে গিয়ে ‘পেট্রো-ডলার চুক্তি’ করলো তখন ডলার তার হারানো গৌরব ফিরে পায়।
ইউক্রেনে আক্রমণের পর মার্কিন যুক্তরাষ্ট্রের নিষেধাজ্ঞা জারির পর রাশিয়ার মুদ্রা রুবলের দরপতন হলেও পুতিন সিদ্ধান্ত নেয় রাশিয়া থেকে গ্যাস-তেল কিনতে হলে রুবল দিয়ে কিনতে হবে, ডলার বা ইউরো দিয়ে নয়। এর ফলে রুবলের দামও বাড়তে থাকে। বর্তমানে পেট্রো ডলারের আধিপত্যকে রীতিমতো চ্যালেঞ্জ জানাচ্ছে চীনের পেট্রো-ইউয়ান। রাশিয়া,চীনের মতো বড় বড় দেশ দিন দিন পেট্রো-ডলারের প্রতি আস্থা হারাচ্ছে, আর পেট্রো-ডলারের পতন হলে তো মার্কিন যুক্তরাষ্ট্রের economic system এর যে বারোটা বেজে যাবে তা আর বলার অপেক্ষা রাখে না।
জেমস রিকার্ডস তিন দশকেরও বেশি সময় ধরে অর্থনীতির বড়ো বড়ো প্রতিষ্ঠান ও বিশ্ব অর্থনীতির প্রধান কেন্দ্র ওয়াল স্ট্রিটে কাজ করে যেসব অভিজ্ঞতা অর্জন করেছেন তার সার নির্যাস বইটিতে ফুটিয়ে তুলেছেন। বারবার সতর্ক করে দেখিয়েছেন যে, গত শতকে দুই-দুইবার বিশ্ব-অর্থনীতি কীভাবে ধ্বংসের মুখে পড়েছে এবং কেন এখন সেটা তৃতীয়বারের মতো ধ্বংসের দ্বারপ্রান্তে রয়েছে। এই ধ্বংসাত্নক পরিস্থিতি যাতে আর্থিকভাবে কিছুটা সামাল দেয়া যায় সেই উপায়ও তিনি বলে দিয়েছেন। আর বইয়ের অনুবাদকও বইটিতে বাংলাদেশের অর্থনীতির বিভিন্ন উদাহরণ টেনেছেন যাতে পাঠকরা ভালো করে বুঝতে পারে বিষয়গুলো ৷
এই ক্যাটাগরির বই আসলে পড়া উচিত সকলের। চোখ খুলে যাবে এতে। Mike Maloney তার 'Guide To Investing In Gold & Silver' বই সম্পর্কে বলেন, "Once you have read this book, you can recognize how the current economic system plays you, and you can take control of your financial future. You will never be able to look at these financial institutions in the same way. Your context will be changed, and a new horizon as bright as the morning sun will be before you."
এই বইটিতে মানবসভ্যতায় মুদ্রার ইতিহাস থেকে শুরু করে বর্তমান বৈশ্বিক অর্থনীতির অনিবার্য পরিণতি নিয়ে আলোচনা করা হয়েছে। ইউরোপে ব্যাংকব্যবস্থার উত্থানের পর গোল্ডস্ট্যান্ডার্ড ভিত্তিক কাগুজে মুদ্রার প্রচলন শুরু হলেও দুটো বিশ্বযুদ্ধসহ বিভিন্ন কারণে ১৯৭১ এ মার্কিন প্রেসিডেন্ট রিচার্ড নিক্সন যখন ডলারের বিপরীতে থাকা গোল্ড স্ট্যান্ডার্ড বাতিল করার ঘোষণা দেয় তখন ডলারের প্রতি পৃথিবীবাসী আস্থা হারিয়ে ফেলে আর ডলারও পড়ে যায় হুমকির মুখে। ১৯৭৩ সালে কিসিঞ্জার যখন সৌদি আরবের বাদশাহ ফয়সালের সাথে গিয়ে ‘পেট্রো-ডলার চুক্তি’ করলো তখন ডলার তার হারানো গৌরব ফিরে পায়।
ইউক্রেনে আক্রমণের পর মার্কিন যুক্তরাষ্ট্রের নিষেধাজ্ঞা জারির পর রাশিয়ার মুদ্রা রুবলের দরপতন হলেও পুতিন সিদ্ধান্ত নেয় রাশিয়া থেকে গ্যাস-তেল কিনতে হলে রুবল দিয়ে কিনতে হবে, ডলার বা ইউরো দিয়ে নয়। এর ফলে রুবলের দামও বাড়তে থাকে। বর্তমানে পেট্রো ডলারের আধিপত্যকে রীতিমতো চ্যালেঞ্জ জানাচ্ছে চীনের পেট্রো-ইউয়ান। রাশিয়া,চীনের মতো বড় বড় দেশ দিন দিন পেট্রো-ডলারের প্রতি আস্থা হারাচ্ছে, আর পেট্রো-ডলারের পতন হলে তো মার্কিন যুক্তরাষ্ট্রের economic system এর যে বারোটা বেজে যাবে তা আর বলার অপেক্ষা রাখে না।
জেমস রিকার্ডস তিন দশকেরও বেশি সময় ধরে অর্থনীতির বড়ো বড়ো প্রতিষ্ঠান ও বিশ্ব অর্থনীতির প্রধান কেন্দ্র ওয়াল স্ট্রিটে কাজ করে যেসব অভিজ্ঞতা অর্জন করেছেন তার সার নির্যাস বইটিতে ফুটিয়ে তুলেছেন। বারবার সতর্ক করে দেখিয়েছেন যে, গত শতকে দুই-দুইবার বিশ্ব-অর্থনীতি কীভাবে ধ্বংসের মুখে পড়েছে এবং কেন এখন সেটা তৃতীয়বারের মতো ধ্বংসের দ্বারপ্রান্তে রয়েছে। এই ধ্বংসাত্নক পরিস্থিতি যাতে আর্থিকভাবে কিছুটা সামাল দেয়া যায় সেই উপায়ও তিনি বলে দিয়েছেন। আর বইয়ের অনুবাদকও বইটিতে বাংলাদেশের অর্থনীতির বিভিন্ন উদাহরণ টেনেছেন যাতে পাঠকরা ভালো করে বুঝতে পারে বিষয়গুলো ৷
এই ক্যাটাগরির বই আসলে পড়া উচিত সকলের। চোখ খুলে যাবে এতে। Mike Maloney তার 'Guide To Investing In Gold & Silver' বই সম্পর্কে বলেন, "Once you have read this book, you can recognize how the current economic system plays you, and you can take control of your financial future. You will never be able to look at these financial institutions in the same way. Your context will be changed, and a new horizon as bright as the morning sun will be before you."
April 6, 2018
• Money = 1) medium of exchange 2) store of value 3) unit of account
• Gold (Au, 79) is money as physical gold and the most suitable of the elements. It has all requirements for money; scarcity, malleability, inertness, durability and uniformity. It has "golden" color and historically been very important. Gold is resistant to cyberattacks.
• Gold (in physical form) is not paper, not a commodity and not an investment (no return, similar to cash)
• Price for gold stays about the same, but can gain when other asset classes are depressed
• Only about 35000 tons of "official" gold. This does not include private gold like jewelry
• SDR = world money (special drawing rights) from the IMF
• Gold/GDP ratio important if meeting to discuss the rules of the game
• China's gold unknown but estimated at 4000 tons
• Russia and china increasing gold hordes
• When international monetary collapse happens countries will sit at the "poker" table to discuss the new rules and their influence can be measured in their stash of gold
• "Shadow gold standard" implications
• Gold = insurance
• Gold is simple
• The economy is complex
• Critical threshold and complexity theory
• 2008: "Conditional correlation" when hedge funds sell Japanese stocks to raise money for other positions (= emergent property in a complex system)
• "Extreme financialization almost destroyed the global economy in 2008." 71
• Annual output of gold about 1,6% per year
• Gold is not correlated with the stock market
• Allocation of 10% to gold is recommended. But physical which can be tricky.
• Claims of a possible 10000 dollar gold future. Maybe.
• Gold (Au, 79) is money as physical gold and the most suitable of the elements. It has all requirements for money; scarcity, malleability, inertness, durability and uniformity. It has "golden" color and historically been very important. Gold is resistant to cyberattacks.
• Gold (in physical form) is not paper, not a commodity and not an investment (no return, similar to cash)
• Price for gold stays about the same, but can gain when other asset classes are depressed
• Only about 35000 tons of "official" gold. This does not include private gold like jewelry
• SDR = world money (special drawing rights) from the IMF
• Gold/GDP ratio important if meeting to discuss the rules of the game
• China's gold unknown but estimated at 4000 tons
• Russia and china increasing gold hordes
• When international monetary collapse happens countries will sit at the "poker" table to discuss the new rules and their influence can be measured in their stash of gold
• "Shadow gold standard" implications
• Gold = insurance
• Gold is simple
• The economy is complex
• Critical threshold and complexity theory
• 2008: "Conditional correlation" when hedge funds sell Japanese stocks to raise money for other positions (= emergent property in a complex system)
• "Extreme financialization almost destroyed the global economy in 2008." 71
• Annual output of gold about 1,6% per year
• Gold is not correlated with the stock market
• Allocation of 10% to gold is recommended. But physical which can be tricky.
• Claims of a possible 10000 dollar gold future. Maybe.
August 5, 2018
3,5 stars
Rickards makes a good case that gold is not dead yet and soon people will end up wanting to have taken this opportunity to get it physical while they still can. The great international powers are all increasing their stash, waiting for the right time for a new international monetary reset. The question is: will it be ordered or chaotic? Gold is the only kind of money which stands as no one's liability and so Rickards expects it to have an important role at the negotiation table when China, USA, Russia and a few others decide for a new realignment. The IMF should serve as a moderator of the talks.
This is mainly a strategic/geopolitical case for gold, coupled with some hints at insurance in the face of cyber threats and digital repression. Don't expect this to be an economic analysis of why gold is the best choice. In fact, some superficial economic soundbites by the Author almost lead me to decrease the rating to 3 stars, but Rickards is a very well connected man, and the book is definitely valuable as a source of information on the minds of some important and obscure players of today's monetary system. That's why I think you should read it. And buy some bullion afterwards...
Rickards makes a good case that gold is not dead yet and soon people will end up wanting to have taken this opportunity to get it physical while they still can. The great international powers are all increasing their stash, waiting for the right time for a new international monetary reset. The question is: will it be ordered or chaotic? Gold is the only kind of money which stands as no one's liability and so Rickards expects it to have an important role at the negotiation table when China, USA, Russia and a few others decide for a new realignment. The IMF should serve as a moderator of the talks.
This is mainly a strategic/geopolitical case for gold, coupled with some hints at insurance in the face of cyber threats and digital repression. Don't expect this to be an economic analysis of why gold is the best choice. In fact, some superficial economic soundbites by the Author almost lead me to decrease the rating to 3 stars, but Rickards is a very well connected man, and the book is definitely valuable as a source of information on the minds of some important and obscure players of today's monetary system. That's why I think you should read it. And buy some bullion afterwards...
July 28, 2022
পরে দিমু
September 26, 2023
খুব বেশি অর্থনীতির ভাষা ব্যবহার করা হয়েছে। যা আমার বোধগম্যের বাইরে। হ্যাঁ, তবে মোটা মোটা বিষয়গুলো বারবার পড়ে বুঝে নিয়েছি।
April 14, 2024
I picked this up thinking “here we go again—standard goldbug talking points”. I was wrong.
May 28, 2021
In the new case for Gold, American Lawyer and Author James Rickards argue that gold is money, that monetary standards based on gold are possible, even desirable, and that in the absence of an official gold standard, individuals should go on a personal gold standard, by buying gold, to preserve wealth. James makes the case for gold as money in the twenty-first-century, gold’s role in cyber financial warfare, gold’s importance in economic sanctions on nations such as Iran, and gold’s future as a competitor to the world money called special drawing rights (SDRs) issued by the International Monetary Fund.
The Case against Gold
Gold is a “barbarous relic,” according to John Maynard Keynes.
There is not enough gold to support finance and commerce.
Gold supply does not grow fast enough to support world growth.
Gold caused the Great Depression.
Gold has no yield.
Gold has no intrinsic value.
James Rickards makes the case for Gold by clarifying the above statements.
“Gold Is a “Barbarous Relic,” According to John Maynard Keynes”
What he did say was more interesting. In his book Monetary Reform (1924), Keynes wrote, “In truth, the gold standard is already a barbarous relic.” Keynes was not discussing gold but rather a gold standard, and in the 1924 context he was right. The notoriously flawed gold exchange standard that prevailed in various forms from 1922 to 1939 should never have been adopted, and should have been abandoned long before it died with the outbreak of the Second World War.
“There Is Not Enough Gold to Support Finance and Commerce”
The amount of gold in the world is always fixed at a level, subject to an increase through mining. Currently, the world has about 170,000 metric tons in total, of which about 35,000 metric tons are official gold held by central banks, finance ministries, and sovereign wealth funds.
That gold can support any amount of world finance and commerce under a gold standard at a price. The price can be determined by calculating the simple ratio of physical gold to money supply.
When critics say “there’s not enough gold” what they really mean is that there isn’t enough gold at current prices. That is not an objection to a gold standard. It is an objection to a candid confrontation with the real value of paper money relative to physical gold.
“Gold Supply Does Not Grow Fast Enough to Support World Growth”
A critic who advances this argument fails to distinguish between stocks of official gold and total gold. Official gold is owned by the government and available to support a money supply. Total gold includes official gold plus all the gold held privately as bullion or used in jewelry or for decorative purposes.
Official gold is only about 20 percent of the total gold stock, which leaves ample room for governments to acquire gold.
There is no reason why a gold standard cannot be combined with discretionary monetary policy. A combination of gold and central bank money was the norm from 1815 to 1971 except during war. Central banks acted as a lender of last resort and expanded or contracted the money supply as they saw fit even under the gold standard. In fact, gold’s main purpose was to signal the proper monetary policy based on bullion inflows and outflows.
Gold Caused the Great Depression
Actually, the Great Depression was caused by incompetent discretionary monetary policy conducted by the U.S. Federal Reserve from 1927 to 1931, a fact documented by a long line of monetary scholars including Anna Schwartz, Milton Friedman, and more recently, Ben Bernanke. The Great Depression was then prolonged by experimental policy interventions launched by Herbert Hoover and Franklin Roosevelt.
Gold Has No Yield
“This statement is true, and it is one of the strongest arguments in favor of gold.”
Gold has no yield or return because it is not supposed to. Gold is money, and money has no yield because it has no risk. Money can be a medium of exchange, a store of value, and a unit of account, but true money is not a risk asset.
Yield comes from putting the dollar in the bank. But then it’s not money anymore; it’s a bank deposit.
A bank deposit is not money; it’s a bank’s unsecured liability. The largest banks in the United States would have collapsed in 2008 if not for government bailouts in the form of expanded deposit insurance, guaranteed money market funds, zero interest rates, quantitative easing, foreign central bank swap lines, and other monetary gymnastics.
A gold coin, a dollar bill, and bitcoin are three forms of money. One is metal, one is paper, and one is digital. None of them has a yield. They’re not supposed to—they’re money.
Gold Has No Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value theory is an extension of the labor theory of value first advanced by David Ricardo in 1811, and later adopted by Karl Marx in The Communist Manifesto (1848) and Das Kapital (1867, 1885, 1894), among other writings. The idea is that the value of a good derives from the combination of labor and capital that went into its production.
Of these six best-known objections to gold as money, five are empirically, analytically, or historically incorrect, and one—gold has no yield—is correct, yet it’s not a critique, it’s a truism, and consistent with the view that gold is money.
Money
A classic definition of money has three parts: medium of exchange, store of value, and unit of account. If all three of those criteria are met, you have money of a sort.
Noble Metals,
Once the process of elimination is complete, there are only eight candidates for use as money. These are the so-called noble metals, situated about in the center of the table, consisting of iridium, osmium, ruthenium, platinum, palladium, rhodium, silver, and gold. All of these are rare. Still, only silver and gold are available in sufficient quantities to comprise a practical money supply.
Gold
Gold is the only element that has all the requisite physical characteristics—scarcity, malleability, inertness, durability, and uniformity—to serve as a reliable and practical physical store of value. Wiser societies than ours knew what they were doing.
Digital Money
Just because money is “digital” doesn’t mean it’s not part of the physical world. There is no escape from the periodic table of the elements. Digital money exists as charged subatomic particles stored on silicon (Si) chips. Those charges can be hacked and erased. Gold atoms (atomic number 79) are stable and cannot be erased by Chinese and Russian cyberbrigades. Even in the cyber age, gold still stands out as money nonpareil.
Shadow Gold Standard
Countries around the world are acquiring gold at an accelerated rate in order to diversify their reserve positions. This trend, combined with the huge reserves held by the United States, the Eurozone, and the IMF, amounts to a shadow gold standard.
Gold Is Insurance
Gold is not an investment, it’s not a commodity, it’s not a paper contract, and it’s not digital. Gold is simple, an element, atomic number 79; it is the opposite of complex. It is robust in the face of international monetary collapse and financial market complexity. Owning gold is insurance against the current economic climate and unstable monetary system.
The Case against Gold
Gold is a “barbarous relic,” according to John Maynard Keynes.
There is not enough gold to support finance and commerce.
Gold supply does not grow fast enough to support world growth.
Gold caused the Great Depression.
Gold has no yield.
Gold has no intrinsic value.
James Rickards makes the case for Gold by clarifying the above statements.
“Gold Is a “Barbarous Relic,” According to John Maynard Keynes”
What he did say was more interesting. In his book Monetary Reform (1924), Keynes wrote, “In truth, the gold standard is already a barbarous relic.” Keynes was not discussing gold but rather a gold standard, and in the 1924 context he was right. The notoriously flawed gold exchange standard that prevailed in various forms from 1922 to 1939 should never have been adopted, and should have been abandoned long before it died with the outbreak of the Second World War.
“There Is Not Enough Gold to Support Finance and Commerce”
The amount of gold in the world is always fixed at a level, subject to an increase through mining. Currently, the world has about 170,000 metric tons in total, of which about 35,000 metric tons are official gold held by central banks, finance ministries, and sovereign wealth funds.
That gold can support any amount of world finance and commerce under a gold standard at a price. The price can be determined by calculating the simple ratio of physical gold to money supply.
When critics say “there’s not enough gold” what they really mean is that there isn’t enough gold at current prices. That is not an objection to a gold standard. It is an objection to a candid confrontation with the real value of paper money relative to physical gold.
“Gold Supply Does Not Grow Fast Enough to Support World Growth”
A critic who advances this argument fails to distinguish between stocks of official gold and total gold. Official gold is owned by the government and available to support a money supply. Total gold includes official gold plus all the gold held privately as bullion or used in jewelry or for decorative purposes.
Official gold is only about 20 percent of the total gold stock, which leaves ample room for governments to acquire gold.
There is no reason why a gold standard cannot be combined with discretionary monetary policy. A combination of gold and central bank money was the norm from 1815 to 1971 except during war. Central banks acted as a lender of last resort and expanded or contracted the money supply as they saw fit even under the gold standard. In fact, gold’s main purpose was to signal the proper monetary policy based on bullion inflows and outflows.
Gold Caused the Great Depression
Actually, the Great Depression was caused by incompetent discretionary monetary policy conducted by the U.S. Federal Reserve from 1927 to 1931, a fact documented by a long line of monetary scholars including Anna Schwartz, Milton Friedman, and more recently, Ben Bernanke. The Great Depression was then prolonged by experimental policy interventions launched by Herbert Hoover and Franklin Roosevelt.
Gold Has No Yield
“This statement is true, and it is one of the strongest arguments in favor of gold.”
Gold has no yield or return because it is not supposed to. Gold is money, and money has no yield because it has no risk. Money can be a medium of exchange, a store of value, and a unit of account, but true money is not a risk asset.
Yield comes from putting the dollar in the bank. But then it’s not money anymore; it’s a bank deposit.
A bank deposit is not money; it’s a bank’s unsecured liability. The largest banks in the United States would have collapsed in 2008 if not for government bailouts in the form of expanded deposit insurance, guaranteed money market funds, zero interest rates, quantitative easing, foreign central bank swap lines, and other monetary gymnastics.
A gold coin, a dollar bill, and bitcoin are three forms of money. One is metal, one is paper, and one is digital. None of them has a yield. They’re not supposed to—they’re money.
Gold Has No Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value theory is an extension of the labor theory of value first advanced by David Ricardo in 1811, and later adopted by Karl Marx in The Communist Manifesto (1848) and Das Kapital (1867, 1885, 1894), among other writings. The idea is that the value of a good derives from the combination of labor and capital that went into its production.
Of these six best-known objections to gold as money, five are empirically, analytically, or historically incorrect, and one—gold has no yield—is correct, yet it’s not a critique, it’s a truism, and consistent with the view that gold is money.
Money
A classic definition of money has three parts: medium of exchange, store of value, and unit of account. If all three of those criteria are met, you have money of a sort.
Noble Metals,
Once the process of elimination is complete, there are only eight candidates for use as money. These are the so-called noble metals, situated about in the center of the table, consisting of iridium, osmium, ruthenium, platinum, palladium, rhodium, silver, and gold. All of these are rare. Still, only silver and gold are available in sufficient quantities to comprise a practical money supply.
Gold
Gold is the only element that has all the requisite physical characteristics—scarcity, malleability, inertness, durability, and uniformity—to serve as a reliable and practical physical store of value. Wiser societies than ours knew what they were doing.
Digital Money
Just because money is “digital” doesn’t mean it’s not part of the physical world. There is no escape from the periodic table of the elements. Digital money exists as charged subatomic particles stored on silicon (Si) chips. Those charges can be hacked and erased. Gold atoms (atomic number 79) are stable and cannot be erased by Chinese and Russian cyberbrigades. Even in the cyber age, gold still stands out as money nonpareil.
Shadow Gold Standard
Countries around the world are acquiring gold at an accelerated rate in order to diversify their reserve positions. This trend, combined with the huge reserves held by the United States, the Eurozone, and the IMF, amounts to a shadow gold standard.
Gold Is Insurance
Gold is not an investment, it’s not a commodity, it’s not a paper contract, and it’s not digital. Gold is simple, an element, atomic number 79; it is the opposite of complex. It is robust in the face of international monetary collapse and financial market complexity. Owning gold is insurance against the current economic climate and unstable monetary system.
June 12, 2016
Rickards offers a practical overview of the dynamics of gold in today's currency markets.
I read the audiobook version of this book, so I wouldn't have access to any footnotes that are in the book, but I have a feeling that there aren't many if any. My main criticism of this book as well as his other book The Death of Money is that there are a lot of fact statements but not enough direct references to verifiable supporting evidence. Perhaps I'm just accustomed to academic conventions where statements must be directly supported by references, but at many points I end up feeling a lot like this xkcd post:
That said, if I take Rickards' fact statements as verifiable, then I find his general argument clear and compelling.
I read both this book and The Death of Money at the same time - and I'd recommend reading them together. The Death of Money systematically investigates the international currency situation region by region, which for me was an important buttress for Rickards' credibility in this book.
One unexpected thing that I enjoyed about this book was his description of the auditing the gold reserves for a gold-backed fund whose bouillon was kept in Switzerland. Rickards describes the security features of a private vault that means business when it comes to security.
I read the audiobook version of this book, so I wouldn't have access to any footnotes that are in the book, but I have a feeling that there aren't many if any. My main criticism of this book as well as his other book The Death of Money is that there are a lot of fact statements but not enough direct references to verifiable supporting evidence. Perhaps I'm just accustomed to academic conventions where statements must be directly supported by references, but at many points I end up feeling a lot like this xkcd post:
That said, if I take Rickards' fact statements as verifiable, then I find his general argument clear and compelling.
I read both this book and The Death of Money at the same time - and I'd recommend reading them together. The Death of Money systematically investigates the international currency situation region by region, which for me was an important buttress for Rickards' credibility in this book.
One unexpected thing that I enjoyed about this book was his description of the auditing the gold reserves for a gold-backed fund whose bouillon was kept in Switzerland. Rickards describes the security features of a private vault that means business when it comes to security.
April 10, 2019
This book outlines the importance of gold and tells you why you should slowly acquire it ASAP. The author proved that the five best-known objections to gold as money are empirically, analytically, or historically incorrect. The information provided in this book totally surprised me and my perspective on gold, the monetary system, and the central banks are not the same after I completed this book.
I would say that you will need to have a basic knowledge of finance and economics to be able to enjoy and digest the information in this book because as a finance undergrad myself, I had a tough time understanding the author's explanation (i.e., I am dumb).
It is not surprising to know that the Feds and government can easily manipulate the market and we all know that they have the ability to do it but knowing HOW THEY DO IT, is eye-opening and a new thing. I've learned a lot of new things considering this is the first book I've read about gold but even though this may not be your first book about gold, you will still learn something new because the author is not trying to rehearse the same old arguments, but rather to put the gold discussion in a twenty-first century context. Hence, the word "NEW" in the book title.
So, who should read this book? Those who have trust issues with the Feds and central banks, those who have extra cash and looking for a long term investment, those who wanted to invest in gold but are still hesitating and in need of a solid reason to buy it, and generally anyone who wanted to increase his/her financial & economic knowledge.
I would say that you will need to have a basic knowledge of finance and economics to be able to enjoy and digest the information in this book because as a finance undergrad myself, I had a tough time understanding the author's explanation (i.e., I am dumb).
It is not surprising to know that the Feds and government can easily manipulate the market and we all know that they have the ability to do it but knowing HOW THEY DO IT, is eye-opening and a new thing. I've learned a lot of new things considering this is the first book I've read about gold but even though this may not be your first book about gold, you will still learn something new because the author is not trying to rehearse the same old arguments, but rather to put the gold discussion in a twenty-first century context. Hence, the word "NEW" in the book title.
So, who should read this book? Those who have trust issues with the Feds and central banks, those who have extra cash and looking for a long term investment, those who wanted to invest in gold but are still hesitating and in need of a solid reason to buy it, and generally anyone who wanted to increase his/her financial & economic knowledge.
July 26, 2016
Not much new but still interesting and worth the read for a Gold Broker. Inflation - Deflation, price manipulation, end of the $, the IMF and the next bailout (and last ) with special drawing rights, the Chinese ascension to a seat at the big table, 57 trillion in paper money printed out of thin air by the worlds central banks since 2009, brief history of gold , it's all there. The insight into Chinese vs our Fed is interesting and something you might be surprised to find they happen to be on the same side (for now). Still, You cant print gold and the amount of gold mined on a yearly basis is pretty regular, it hasn't increased or decreased by more than 5% since the 1849 gold rush, so as a world money base it's logical. Rickards pitches fear but in logical manor as the best fear mongers do, but he does have insight from his experience (though I somehow am waiting for that to turnout to be a fraud). If you are interested in Gold, money, world wealth manipulation, pick it up, it's an easy read. It just might scare you into buying some gold. If so contact me ---Full Disclosure I sell gold..............it sure did convince me to grab some more.
March 26, 2021
在這本書前看了作者另外兩本著作：《下一波全球貨幣大戰》、《下一波全球經濟浩劫：亂世中保存財富的七大祕訣》。這三本書中最推薦的是《下一波全球貨幣大戰》，該書中把貨幣本位制的歷史介紹得相當清楚，同時對於『2008年美國華爾街引起的全球金融風暴』及接下來『歐洲各國的主權債務危機』做了讓讀者易懂的講述（相對於另一本厚得相塊磚的《崩盤：金融海嘯十年後，從經濟危機到後真相政治的不穩定世界》看得我頭昏眼花）。
作者的幾個重要立論觀點——
●2008年的金融風暴事實上並沒有真正的被解決，目前美國銀行大幅增加了金融體系的規模，而監管機構卻對此睜一隻眼閉一隻眼。2008年「大到不能倒」（too big to fail）的銀行現在更大，它們的衍生品規模比2008年時要大很多。我們很容易看到下一次金融危機將會比2008年的恐慌要大得多，因為目前的系統規模已經大大增加了。
●過去30年來，經濟出現了極度的金融化。這表示我們更傾向於從金融交易，而非從製造業、建築業、農業和其他實體形式的生產中獲得財富。傳統上，金融被用來促進貿易、生產製造業和商業的發展，它支援其他業務活動的開展，但金融業本身並不是目的所在。如果你有實實在在的錢，就無法使經濟金融化，因為金融增長速度不及生產加創新。。。金融業本身並不能創造財富，它利用內部資訊和政府補貼從其他行業中獲取財富，這是一種寄生或所謂的「食利者」活動。在金融引發下一次經濟危機之前，應該控制它的無序發展，控制措施包括分拆大銀行、禁止大部分金融衍生品、限制貨幣供應等。
●不斷擴大的赤字預算及貨幣過度量化寬鬆，美元作為世界貨幣的資格愈來愈薄弱（目前美元仍是全球主要的儲備貨幣），全球在不久的將來會發生『貨幣系統崩潰』。（作者寫這幾本書時美國Fed資產負債表的規模為四兆多美元，作者大喊如果來到五、六兆時，人民將對美元失去信心，我查了一下目前美國Fed的資產負債表規模因疫情的關係已破七兆了！）
●目前的貨幣體系會崩潰，到時各國一定會坐下來談出一個新的本位制（像是1944年讓美元霸主地位被正式確立的『佈雷頓森林會議』），而黃金的存量將成為各國談判的籌碼（所以中國、俄羅斯政府正不斷大量地購入黃金中）。
●作者對於貨幣的本位制看得出來他是推崇被尼克森總統廢掉的金本位，他認為如果要恢復金本位制，要建立一個非通縮的金本位制，黃金合理的錨定價格應該在一萬到五萬美元之間。（所以前不久黃金因疫情漲到二千美元的價格還算是小case！）
●金融系統逐漸失靈下，買進黃金將是唯一明智的保險做法，作者建議我們的投資理財裡應有10%的黃金配置，購買實體黃金，避免槓桿，且不能放在銀行的保管箱裡（美國在1933年時小羅斯福總統曾下令没收民間的黃金；另外當發生金融風暴時銀行會最先倒下，存放在裡面的紙黃金或實體黃金都有拿不出來的危險）。
作者的幾個重要立論觀點——
●2008年的金融風暴事實上並沒有真正的被解決，目前美國銀行大幅增加了金融體系的規模，而監管機構卻對此睜一隻眼閉一隻眼。2008年「大到不能倒」（too big to fail）的銀行現在更大，它們的衍生品規模比2008年時要大很多。我們很容易看到下一次金融危機將會比2008年的恐慌要大得多，因為目前的系統規模已經大大增加了。
●過去30年來，經濟出現了極度的金融化。這表示我們更傾向於從金融交易，而非從製造業、建築業、農業和其他實體形式的生產中獲得財富。傳統上，金融被用來促進貿易、生產製造業和商業的發展，它支援其他業務活動的開展，但金融業本身並不是目的所在。如果你有實實在在的錢，就無法使經濟金融化，因為金融增長速度不及生產加創新。。。金融業本身並不能創造財富，它利用內部資訊和政府補貼從其他行業中獲取財富，這是一種寄生或所謂的「食利者」活動。在金融引發下一次經濟危機之前，應該控制它的無序發展，控制措施包括分拆大銀行、禁止大部分金融衍生品、限制貨幣供應等。
●不斷擴大的赤字預算及貨幣過度量化寬鬆，美元作為世界貨幣的資格愈來愈薄弱（目前美元仍是全球主要的儲備貨幣），全球在不久的將來會發生『貨幣系統崩潰』。（作者寫這幾本書時美國Fed資產負債表的規模為四兆多美元，作者大喊如果來到五、六兆時，人民將對美元失去信心，我查了一下目前美國Fed的資產負債表規模因疫情的關係已破七兆了！）
●目前的貨幣體系會崩潰，到時各國一定會坐下來談出一個新的本位制（像是1944年讓美元霸主地位被正式確立的『佈雷頓森林會議』），而黃金的存量將成為各國談判的籌碼（所以中國、俄羅斯政府正不斷大量地購入黃金中）。
●作者對於貨幣的本位制看得出來他是推崇被尼克森總統廢掉的金本位，他認為如果要恢復金本位制，要建立一個非通縮的金本位制，黃金合理的錨定價格應該在一萬到五萬美元之間。（所以前不久黃金因疫情漲到二千美元的價格還算是小case！）
●金融系統逐漸失靈下，買進黃金將是唯一明智的保險做法，作者建議我們的投資理財裡應有10%的黃金配置，購買實體黃金，避免槓桿，且不能放在銀行的保管箱裡（美國在1933年時小羅斯福總統曾下令没收民間的黃金；另外當發生金融風暴時銀行會最先倒下，存放在裡面的紙黃金或實體黃金都有拿不出來的危險）。
April 24, 2016
Overall not bad but a little sensationalist
There are a few factual inaccuracies in the book and some interesting new information. The author touched on the subject of debt levels and deflationary pressure but dismissed it. In the case of major defaults as mentioned by the book large amounts of debt would be wiped out of the system with a major deflationary impact similar to what happened in 1929. This would have the opposite effect to the one the author mentions.
The discussion about the imf was interesting.
There are a few factual inaccuracies in the book and some interesting new information. The author touched on the subject of debt levels and deflationary pressure but dismissed it. In the case of major defaults as mentioned by the book large amounts of debt would be wiped out of the system with a major deflationary impact similar to what happened in 1929. This would have the opposite effect to the one the author mentions.
The discussion about the imf was interesting.
April 6, 2016
Though I'm somewhat skeptical of some of the book's more dramatic predictions James Richards still shows yet again his impressive knowledge of geopolitics with their implications into the monetary/currency fields. The book highlights a number of historical case studies along with deep insights into contemporary monetary and political issues. It's nice to hear an analyst with such a broad perspective and deep considerations.
May 15, 2016
Everyone should know more about the economic forces currently at play. This book offers practical advice on doing something about it
Great book for anyone looking to learn more about the macro forces in the global economy. There are potentially highly volatile times ahead and there are actions you can take to preserve and grow your wealth.
Great book for anyone looking to learn more about the macro forces in the global economy. There are potentially highly volatile times ahead and there are actions you can take to preserve and grow your wealth.
April 9, 2016
Much broader range than gold covered here! His earlier
Book currency wars should be read also! Scripture condemns coming monetary system. This book explores forerunner to that system. Excellent
Book currency wars should be read also! Scripture condemns coming monetary system. This book explores forerunner to that system. Excellent
April 20, 2016
The best investment book I have ever come across that truly gives a great overview of the fragile financial system and the role of gold in it. It is recommended for everyone who wants to preserve his wealth during adverse financial crisis in the future.
May 8, 2016
I'm a believer, and have put my money where my mouth is. IMO gold has a place in every investor's portolio, and there are more reasons than ever in today's unstable markets.
December 13, 2016
Engrossing, clear and insightful. I was able to read the whole book in a single sitting and took a lot of ideas away with me. Recommended.
January 13, 2022
Excellent book on why gold is a strong investment now and the future.
March 14, 2025
The Federal Reserve System ("The Fed") is composed of 12 regional banks and functions as the central bank of the United States. It is controlled by the U.S. government, though the regional banks have private ownership structures.
The Fed holds a "gold certificate account" worth approximately $11 billion, representing around 8,000 metric tons of gold valued at $42.2 per ounce (a historical fixed price). This is an accounting entry rather than a liquid asset, and the gold is owned by the U.S. Treasury, not the Fed. At current market rates, this gold would be valued at roughly $700 billion. The gold certificate account helps reduce the Fed's leverage and can offset potential losses from its bond portfolio.
U.S. Gold Reserves
U.S. gold reserves dropped from about 20,000 tons in 1950 to roughly 8,000 tons by 1980:
Approx. 11,000 tons were redeemed by foreign trading partners between 1950 and 1971 under the gold-backed dollar system.
Approx. 1,000 tons were sold between 1971 and 1980 (to suppress gold prices?)
Gold as Money
Professor Andrea Sella of University College London explains that gold is uniquely suited as money due to its scarcity, durability, malleability, and uniformity. Silver shares some similar traits but is less optimal for long-term monetary storage.
Gold has historically been viewed as both a commodity and a form of money, serving as a hedge against economic instability.
Global Gold Holdings and Economic Strategy
Central banks globally hold about 30,000 metric tons of gold. Countries are accelerating gold acquisitions to diversify reserves. Estimated gold-to-GDP ratio:
-Eurozone ~4%
-U.S.: ~2%
-Russia's: ~3%
China is steadily increasing its reserves, aiming to match Western levels.
Gold and Interest Rates
Real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation) strongly influence gold prices:
- Negative real rates tend to boost gold prices.
- Positive real rates tend to suppress gold prices.
Inflation and Deflation
Inflation is seen as the likely outcome due to ongoing debt accumulation in Western economies. Governments may prefer inflation to reduce the real value of debt.
Historically, governments have adjusted the dollar price of gold to create inflation during deflationary periods (e.g., U.S. in 1933, U.K. in 1931)
In extreme cases, gold prices could be raised dramatically to trigger controlled inflation.
Gold market manipulation
Allegations exist that gold prices have been suppressed through tactics such as massive shorting of futures markets.
Future disruptions in gold delivery could trigger sharp price increases.
China’s Gold Strategy
China’s gold accumulation aims to hedge against its large U.S. Treasury holdings, not necessarily to launch a gold-backed currency in the short term.
Theories that the U.S. and China may coordinate to stabilize gold prices once China amasses ~8,000 tons are speculative and unconfirmed.
Investor Guidance
Gold is often seen as the "anti-dollar," rising in value during economic instability or dollar weakness.
Investors are advised to focus on accumulating gold by weight rather than fixating on its dollar price.
Physical gold stored outside the banking system is considered secure from "bail-ins”
- The author recommends allocating around 10% of investable wealth in physical gold stored outside the banking system as a hedge.
The Fed holds a "gold certificate account" worth approximately $11 billion, representing around 8,000 metric tons of gold valued at $42.2 per ounce (a historical fixed price). This is an accounting entry rather than a liquid asset, and the gold is owned by the U.S. Treasury, not the Fed. At current market rates, this gold would be valued at roughly $700 billion. The gold certificate account helps reduce the Fed's leverage and can offset potential losses from its bond portfolio.
U.S. Gold Reserves
U.S. gold reserves dropped from about 20,000 tons in 1950 to roughly 8,000 tons by 1980:
Approx. 11,000 tons were redeemed by foreign trading partners between 1950 and 1971 under the gold-backed dollar system.
Approx. 1,000 tons were sold between 1971 and 1980 (to suppress gold prices?)
Gold as Money
Professor Andrea Sella of University College London explains that gold is uniquely suited as money due to its scarcity, durability, malleability, and uniformity. Silver shares some similar traits but is less optimal for long-term monetary storage.
Gold has historically been viewed as both a commodity and a form of money, serving as a hedge against economic instability.
Global Gold Holdings and Economic Strategy
Central banks globally hold about 30,000 metric tons of gold. Countries are accelerating gold acquisitions to diversify reserves. Estimated gold-to-GDP ratio:
-Eurozone ~4%
-U.S.: ~2%
-Russia's: ~3%
China is steadily increasing its reserves, aiming to match Western levels.
Gold and Interest Rates
Real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation) strongly influence gold prices:
- Negative real rates tend to boost gold prices.
- Positive real rates tend to suppress gold prices.
Inflation and Deflation
Inflation is seen as the likely outcome due to ongoing debt accumulation in Western economies. Governments may prefer inflation to reduce the real value of debt.
Historically, governments have adjusted the dollar price of gold to create inflation during deflationary periods (e.g., U.S. in 1933, U.K. in 1931)
In extreme cases, gold prices could be raised dramatically to trigger controlled inflation.
Gold market manipulation
Allegations exist that gold prices have been suppressed through tactics such as massive shorting of futures markets.
Future disruptions in gold delivery could trigger sharp price increases.
China’s Gold Strategy
China’s gold accumulation aims to hedge against its large U.S. Treasury holdings, not necessarily to launch a gold-backed currency in the short term.
Theories that the U.S. and China may coordinate to stabilize gold prices once China amasses ~8,000 tons are speculative and unconfirmed.
Investor Guidance
Gold is often seen as the "anti-dollar," rising in value during economic instability or dollar weakness.
Investors are advised to focus on accumulating gold by weight rather than fixating on its dollar price.
Physical gold stored outside the banking system is considered secure from "bail-ins”
- The author recommends allocating around 10% of investable wealth in physical gold stored outside the banking system as a hedge.
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