Tomorrow Now: Envisioning the Next Fifty Years

by Bruce Sterling

“Nobody knows better than Bruce Sterling how thin the membrane between science fiction and real life has become, a state he correctly depicts as both thrilling and terrifying in this frisky, literate, clear-eyed sketch of the next half-century. Like all of the most interesting futurists, Sterling isn’t just talking about machines and what he really cares about are the interstices of technology with culture and human history.” -Kurt Andersen, author of Turn of the Century

Visionary author Bruce Sterling views the future like no other writer. In his first nonfiction book since his classic The Hacker Crackdown, Sterling describes the world our children might be living in over the next fifty years and what to expect next in culture, geopolitics, and business.

Time calls Bruce Sterling “one of America’s best-known science fiction writers and perhaps the sharpest observer of our media-choked culture working today in any genre.” Tomorrow Now is, as Sterling wryly describes it, “an ambitious, sprawling effort in thundering futurist punditry, in the pulsing vein of the futurists I’ve read and admired over the H. G. Wells, Arthur C. Clarke, and Alvin Toffler; Lewis Mumford, Reyner Banham, Peter Drucker, and Michael Dertouzos. This book asks the future two What does it mean? and How does it feel? ”

Taking a cue from one of William Shakespeare’s greatest soliloquies, Sterling devotes one chapter to each of the seven stages of birth, school, love, war, politics, business, and old age. As our children progress through Sterling’s Shakespearean life cycle, they will encounter new products; new weapons; new crimes; new moral conundrums, such as cloning and genetic alteration; and new political movements, which will augur the way wars of the future will be fought.

Here are some of the author’s

• Human clone babies will grow into the bitterest and surliest adolescents ever.
• Microbes will be more important than the family farm.
• Consumer items will look more and more like cuddly, squeezable pets.
• Tomorrow’s kids will learn more from randomly clicking the Internet than they ever will from their textbooks.
• Enemy governments will be nice to you and will badly want your tourist money, but global outlaws will scheme to kill you, loudly and publicly, on their Jihad TVs.
• The future of politics is blandness punctuated with insanity.
The future of activism belongs to a sophisticated, urbane global network that can make money—the Disney World version of Al Qaeda.

Tomorrow Now will change the way you think about the future and our place in it.

Genres: Nonfiction, Futurism, Science, Essays, Technology, Cyberpunk, History

352 pages, Hardcover

First published January 1, 2002

About the author

Bruce Sterling is an author, journalist, critic and a contributing editor of Wired magazine. Best known for his ten science fiction novels, he also writes short stories, book reviews, design criticism, opinion columns and introductions to books by authors ranging from Ernst Jünger to Jules Verne. His non-fiction works include The Hacker Crackdown: Law and Disorder on the Electronic Frontier (1992), Tomorrow Now: Envisioning the Next Fifty Years (2003) and Shaping Things (2005).

Reviews

[Майя Ставитская · Rating 4 out of 5]

Futurology is concerned with predicting the future, not to be confused with ufology, aimed at contacts with other worlds. With divination on coffee grounds, runes, tarot cards, lamb shoulder, too, little in common (although, sometimes it demonstrate amazing accuracy). The main, but not the only method of F. extrapolation is an attempt to predict the development by transferring a trend from the particular to the general. Since it is a science, statistical methods and mathematical analysis are equally not alien to it. As well as role-playing games and expert surveys.

Bruce Sterling is an expert, an intellectually advanced person who is not averse to acting, and also an undoubted master of extrapolation, so he is not bad for the role of a futurologist. He has the cards in his hands, along with the rest of the tools of applied futurology. In reality, scientifically based forecasts almost always fall into the sky, which is why I personally prefer to use horary astrology in everyday cases. However, for global predictions, it is not suitable, here you need a mundane, which operates with so many factors that for interpretation you would need a brain the size of a haystack.

Let's return to scientific methods. The futurological work "The future has already begun" was published in 2003, the distance of eighteen years is not enough for conclusions: it came true-it did not come true. Therefore, a brief review of the book. In the Introduction, it is stipulated that there are three main predictive styles: Pangloss - everything is for the best in this best of worlds; Cassandra - you will live badly, but not for long; insurance agent-calculate the risks. Sterling chooses the fourth-Jacques from Shakespeare's " How Do You Like It?", who feels like a fish in water in an environment of instability. His monologue about the seven ages of man will be the basis of the book.

Устроены так люди, желают знать, что будет
Будущее предполагает органическое поведение внутри технологической матрицы.
Футурология занимается прогнозированием будущего, не путайте с уфологией, нацеленной на контакты с иными мирами. С гаданием на кофейной гуще, рунах, картах таро, бараньей лопатке тоже мало общего (хотя, порой они демонстрируют удивительную точность). Основной, но не единственный метод Ф. экстраполяция - попытка предсказать развитие переносом какой-то тенденции с частного на общее. Поскольку Ф наука, статистические методы и матанализ в равной степени ей не чужды. А также ролевые игры и опросы экспертов.

Брюс Стерлинг эксперт, человек интеллектуально продвинутый, который не прочь сыграть, а также несомненный мастер экстраполяции, потому недурно подходит на роль футуролога. Ему и карты в руки, вместе с остальным инструментарием прикладной футурологии. В реальности научно обоснованные прогнозы почти всегда попадают пальцем в небо, почему в бытовых случаях лично я предпочитаю пользоваться хорарной астрологией. Однако для глобальных предсказаний она не подходит, тут нужна мунданная, которая оперирует таким количеством факторов, что для интерпретации понадобился бы мозг, величиной со стог сена.

Вернемся к научным методам. Футурологический труд "Будущее уже началось" увидел свет в 2003-м, дистанция в восемнадцать лет недостаточна для выводов: сбылось-не сбылось. Потому, краткий обзор книги. Во Введении оговаривается, что есть три основных предсказательных стиля: Панглосс - все к лучшему в этом лучшем из миров; Кассандра - жить вы будете плохо, но недолго; страховой агент - просчитаем риски. Стерлинг выбирает четвертый - Жак из шекспировского "Как вам это понравится?", чувствующий себя в обстановке нестабильности как рыба в воде. Его монолог о семи возрастах человека станет основой книги.

Сцена первая, Младенец. Самая, на мой взгляд, интересная, яркая и привлекательная, хотя и наиболее фантастическая. Посвящена взаимодействию человека с бактериями, биотехнологиям и генной инженерии, которые в перспективе решат подавляющее большинство сегодняшних проблем: от голода и безопасной утилизации отходов до существования в гармонии с биосферой и практического бессмертия. Под мыслью о моральных ограничениях, реальных лишь до поры, пока действенный и доступный метод внедрения технологии изобретен, подпишусь двумя руками.

Сцена вторая, Школьник. посвящена принципиально новому подходу к образованию в зыбком и быстро меняющемся, в отличие от четко структурированного прежнего, современном мире. Собственно, с некоторыми изменениями мы уже столкнулись в 2020-м, получив вынужденную возможность оценить плюсы и минусы дистанционного обучения. Так что, здесь он оказался прав. Не в меньшей мере, эта глава о необходимости для взрослого человека перманентно учиться новому и переучиваться. Что в общем тоже правда.

Сцена третья, Любовник. Против ожиданий, это не про секс, но главным образом про наш бурный роман с гаджетами и сетями, так радикально изменивший расстановку сил прежнего патриархального бытования. Интересно, что писалось это в самом начале века, когда не только соцсети не стали частью действительности, но и об интернете большинство живущих имели смутное представление, само слово "гаджеты" тогда еще не было обиходным, вместо него Стерлинг пользуется забытым сегодня термином "блобджект", однако вот этот прогноз блистательно точен:
В XIX веке изготовляли механизмы. В XX веке – изделия. А в двадцать первом производят штуковины, которые любят маскироваться под орудия. Но начинают по-настоящему процветать, лишь когда становятся орудием и источником развлечения одновременно.

Сцена четвертая, Солдат. О способов урегулирования напряженности, которая неизменно существует там где сталкиваются интересы, что неизбежно в человеческом обществе. О том, что современные технологии и вооружение отменят глобальные войны, однако локальные конфликты останутся. Что ж, в целом так, хотя: "что там в Сирии, мой Постум, или где там? Неужели до сих пор еще воюем?" Гораздо более серьезной угрозой автору представлялся международный терроризм, что неудиаительно, учитывая время написания. Однако здесь, к счастью, государства проявили редкое единодушие и виват спецслужбам, сегодня неактуально. Приложением эссе о трех знаменитых душегубах конца ХХ века, которым народная молва приписывала робингудовские доблести. Достаточно сказать, что один из них Басаев.

Сцена пятая, Судья. А вот это уже о методах и средствах законодательного регулирования жизни. О правительствах и международных организациях, которые в идеале должны бы становиться мудрее и справедливее день ото дня, на деле если и становятся - то век от века и исключительно в силу необходимости. Никакая система изначально не повернута к человеку, однако у нас есть все основания надеяться, что слияние технологий с контролируемой властью обеспечит более разумно и справедливо устроенный мир.

Сцена шестая. Панталоне. О деньгах, о них родимых. А как без финансового базиса. Хотя именно эта глава со слишком значительным креном в книгоиздание со сплошным маслом масляным, когда дело касается прочих аспектов материального.

Сцена седьмая, Полузабытье. Поскольку тема мрачная, знаменует приближение смерти, то здесь Жак (помните Введение?) уступает место Кассандре. Всевозможные способы, какими человечество может покончить с собой, если о том, чтобы покончить с ним не позаботятся космические угрозы, земные катаклизмы и внезапно ставшие токсичными обыденные вещи, прежде бывшие безопасными. Таки да, соглашусь с Еленой Соловей из "Рабы любви": "Господа, мы звери". Но пока живем, надеемся, а помрем - так помрем.
Я бы порекомендовал человеку XXI века два новых качества: гибкость и терпимость. Гибкость потому, что «затяжная» нестабильность будет в действительности постоянной. Терпимость – потому что она может пережить все это.

[Dennis Littrell · Rating 5 out of 5]

"Organic behavior in a technological matrix"

This is about today, of course. As every science fiction writer knows, any futuristic venture, either in fiction or nonfiction, is an extrapolation from the present. How prescient the writer is depends partly on how well he understands and observes the present and on how lucky he is. I don't know how lucky sci-fi novelist Bruce Sterling is going to be as a visionary, but he definitely has a keen insight into the present. To use his words, "the victorious futurist is not a prophet. He or she does not defeat the future but predicts the present." (p. xvii)

I have read recently, Pierre Baldi's The Shattered Self: The End of Natural Evolution (2001); Howard Bloom's Global Brain: The Evolution of Mass Mind from the Big Bang to the 21st Century (2000); The Next Fifty Years: Science in the First Half of the Twenty-First Century (2002), a collection of essays edited by John Brockman; Francis Fukuyama's Our Posthuman Future: Consequences of the Biotechnology Revolution (2002); Ray Kurzweil's The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence (1999), and others; and I can tell you this is as impressive (in its own way of course) as any of those very impressive books, and has the considerable virtue of being beautifully and compellingly written in a style that is polished, lively and sparkles with deft turns of phrase and a cornucopia of bon mots and apt neologisms. Furthermore, Sterling really is a visionary of the present in that he sees connections and developments that most of us miss. Here are some examples:

"The sense of wonder has a short shelf life." (p. xvii)

Speaking of SUVs and cross-training shoes: "Modern devices are overstuffed with functionality..." (p. 81)

"The right wing wants to leave the market alone but to regulate sex. The left...[tolerates] domestic license but wants to regulate private industry." (p. 160)

"...[F]oreign investors are entirely indifferent to...[the] phony-baloney national mythology" of any given country. "They may feel very ardent about their own country, but they won't tolerate any pretension from" someone else's country. (p. 162)

"Garage sales became Ebay." (p. 224)

Speaking of the abundance of "giant armadillos, sloths as big as hippos, three kinds of elephants," etc., and other fauna in North America before humans arrived: "A natural Texas would look like the Serengeti on steroids." (p. 270)

On what is causing the glaciers to melt: we are "digging up fossils...and setting fire to them." (p. 279)

"The actual likelihood of people...getting atomically bombed is much higher today than it was during the cold war." (p. 260)

On the human-caused "extinctions, and the sheer air-borne filth that comes from burning fossils": "It will...[transform] the whole Earth into something like a grim mining town in East Germany, only without frogs." (p. 281)

Sterling sees the first "superbaby" as a very sad creature indeed because it will be superceded almost immediately by a superior version, and then by a super-superbaby, and will be superior only to its "moronic parents." (p. 30)

"Blobjects...are computer-modeled objects manufactured out of blown goo." They "tend to be fleshy, pseudo-alive, and seductive..." Some examples: "the Gillette Mach 3 razor. The Oral-B toothbrush... The Handspring Visor PDA. Gelatinous wrist rests. The curvy, slithery Microsoft Explorer mouse..." (p. 75)

In addition to "blobjects" there are also "gizmos" which are "small, faddish, buzzy machine[s] with a brief life span." A computer is a gizmo. There are also "blobject gizmos." (p. 89)

And on and on. What Sterling is really writing here is social criticism. He is revealing us to ourselves by highlighting our technology, our consumerism, and the way the various economic and political players--governments, corporations, terrorists, NGOs, etc.--are all out to manipulate us to their advantage. His take on what he calls the dichotomy between the New World Order (the technological haves who are able to effectively manage information) and the New World Disorder (blighted areas of the planet taken over by terrorists, drug dealers and other high risk takers) is especially interesting. He sees the weapons of the unconventional warfare that is now, and will continue to be, the norm in a revealing way. He notes, for example, that terrorist-induced plagues, sometimes called "the poor man's bomb," will only lead to the "poor man's doom" because "Areas with organized governments and public health systems will be the last to collapse from germs and viruses, not the first." (p. 262)

Sterling's vision is of the postmodern world giving way to the posthuman. He sees the disadvantage of our becoming part machine and part biologically-enhanced beings: we will "still have some kind of everyday treadmill" to negotiate, and we may even acquire a renewed respect for death. (pp. 299-300)

In the final chapter he touches on the notion of a "Vingean Singularity" (from Vernor Vinge) which is a place in the future "impossible to describe, simply because" we as human beings "cannot comprehend" such a posthuman environment. In other words, like the event horizon of a black hole, the singularity allows no communication between us and that future world, and that it why it is called a singularity. (pp. 295-296)

Bottom line: be not dissuaded by the nay-sayers about this book, who may not like the unnecessary use of the extended metaphor from Shakespeare's As You Like It, which Sterling uses to frame the text ("All the world's a stage..."), or who are put off by Sterling's sometimes paternal and self-centered expression. This is a terrific read. I enjoyed it from first page to last and found myself nodding in agreement and surprise with much of what he writes.

--Dennis Littrell, author of “The World Is Not as We Think It Is”

[Bill Ahern · Rating 3 out of 5]

It started out really strong, and particularly prophetic considering that it has been in print for 7 years now, which is an era or two in technology terms. Towards the end, beginning with the chapters about the middle east, I felt that it got off track; the three (real life) characters were definitely interesting, but I had no idea what they had to do with technology or even the contemporary culture of information (the events took place in the early 90's).

I did enjoy the book, but at a little over 200 pages the latter half started to feel more like observational ranting, which may have been revelatory in 2003 but, and perhaps impressively enough, is now commonplace. If anything, I'll give Sterling credit for clairvoyance.

[Eric Xia · Rating 5 out of 5]

A really great series of predictions from a visionary and surprisingly contemporary writer.

Why delete my review Goodreads ???!

1. the world is going to stay organic on a technological matrix 2. the fetishization of function in consumer goods as a reflection of the Arts and Crafts movement (like how people will buy ultramarathon shoes to walk to the office) 3. The impossibility for traditional institutions to regulate the internet and the flow of information

[Yates Buckley · Rating 5 out of 5]

Bruce Sterling offers an original perspective on future: there is more to learn about ideas for the next 50 years from this book than many countless others that look at converging trends without a vision of how they come together to a new balanced state.
Bruce is world building in his vision of futures, and while the book is not perfect information, it is unique and should be considered by any futurologist. His vision of a biologically integrated future world, where all our technologies are biological and surround us every day facilitating our function is a must read. While it may be more than 50 years ahead, the vision is something we might look to aim to.

[Derek · Rating 2 out of 5]

There seemed to be more history than any predictions of the future. Other than a brief but interesting view of biotechnology, I didn't find anything that brought forth ideas that might appear in the next 50 years.

[Stephen · Rating 5 out of 5]

Once again proving that science fiction authors are the best futurists, Bruce Sterling delivers a book of cultural observations and ideas that today’s VCs and technologists are surely mining for the raw materials with which they will fashion tomorrow’s material reality.

[Ietrio · Rating 1 out of 5]

A book to read and laugh at some fifty years later. Or how occasionally another small mind rises to generate prophecies, because this time it would be different from the millions before him who did the same and failed.

[Connor · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is an excellent non-fiction book. I feel all futuristic and awesome now.

[Tova · Rating 2 out of 5]

For a book about "Envisioning the Next Fifty Years" there is a serious lack of envisioning the future in this book.

After an interesting bit about biotech, the book continues with a lengthy section about dead warlord Željko Ražnatović, whose relevance for the future completely escapes me. Then the book follows with some contemporary tales about the Internet, writing, books, software freedom, investment and a bit of climate change, Ötzi and life extension.

Little of it seems relevant for the future. Nothing is covered in enough of detail to make it interesting by itself. This is all just random stuff from the 90s and early 2000s with the thinnest veil of futurism.

[Erik · Rating 5 out of 5]

Sterling has always been more accurate with his predictions than most other professional futurists combined.

[Denys Medianick · Rating 2 out of 5]

It’s like “Microsoft home of the future” but a book.

[Michael Burnam-Fink · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is the Real Deal. Pure uncut Bruce Sterling without any of those messy complications of plot or character or setting. The Chairman just sits down and tells you what he thinks The Future is going to look like. If you don't have the right constitution for it, you might OD and throw the book across the room with a cry of "What pretentious shit!" But if your mind is open and flexible (and you've already drunk the kool-aid), this book will rock your socks.

Sterling structures this book around the soliloquy of the Melancholy Jacques from As You Like It, the one that begins "All the world's a stage, and all the men and women merely players." And goes on to discuss the seven stages of life. He covers topics from basic human biology, to education, to gadgets, war, government, business, and finally the fate of the planet, all with the Sterling-esque eyeballs kicks. This is a great book for polemical passages, curt sentences, looping elliptical paragraphs which describe our Present Reality so well that you know instantly that there is no other way to see it.

Now, as a genre futurism tends not to age well. Tomorrow Now is the exception. The book was published in 2002, and while the "predictions" are for 50 years out, we're far enough along to do some preliminary analysis, and despite the hyperactive paranoia of the early millenium Sterling gets it right. The War on Terror was a bust, because fanatical cultists/drug dealing mobs are lousy at governing. Speaking of governing, the contemporary political conflict is between people who want to keep the networks open and flowing and people who want to grandstand, which is a more apt description of the 2012 Presidential Election than anything else I've seen. Technology is not about solving your problems, but about locking you into a relationship with a company, frequently an abusive relationship (hello Facebook!). Sterling's insights are based around a depiction of human nature as messy, complicated, uncertain, torn between transcendence and banality. Everything shiny inevitably is covered in smudges and dust.

This isn't a description of The Future As a Place to Go To, or a blueprint for how to build A Future to Live In. This book is a raft for sailing the vast and chaotic sea of the present. I'm proud to call Bruce Sterling my captain, even if he would deny any such role.

[Chris Ziesler · Rating 5 out of 5]

Days of Future Past

Reading a book about the future that was written a decade ago is an interesting exercise in time travel. It turns out that many of the trends that Sterling perceived in the early 2000s are alive and growing ten years on.

Bruce Sterling has a well-deserved reputation as a futurist whose imaginative grasp is more eclectic and far-reaching than most. In Tomorrow Now Sterling sets out to delineate the outline of how the world might look in the next 50 years.

What sets Tomorrow Now apart from many other similar efforts is Sterling's keen perception of the pitfalls and traps awaiting the unwary prophet. He resists the temptation to predict the specific or the obvious, instead he sets out to uncover trends, "Successful futurism assembles evidence of trends to aim at paradigms."

Sterling adopts Shakespeare's Seven Ages of Man from As You Like It as the basis for his book. This proves to be a very successful map on which to base his exploration. Using these seven ages as a guide he continually returns to the related questions: "What does it mean? How does it feel?" as a lodestone to chart his progress.

What I enjoyed most about Tomorrow Now was the breadth of Sterling's vision across many different areas of human activity: biotech, IT, business, law, politics, even death put in an appearance. I felt that he managed to successfully avoid the monkey puzzle trap which he warned about in his Afterward whereby the unwary futurist allows themselves to become so dazzled by one particular area of advancement that they lose sight of the large trends turning into paradigms in the grand overview.

As he so often pointed out, today is yesterday's future and the clock keeps ticking. For Sterling's view of the future from ten years back, the clock has ticked kindly.

[Ryan · Rating 3 out of 5]

Tomorrow Now is an expansive look at the next fifty years by sci-fi novelist Bruce Sterling. The book's premise is intriguing, but the execution is hit-and-miss.

Sterling's writing style is reminiscent of Tom Friedman (Lexus and the Olive Tree, The World is Flat, etc.), which drove me mildly insane as I read the book. Both authors heavily rely on gimmicky initial caps to drive home Important Concepts, as if trademarking new terms mid-sentence. Far worse, these Important Concepts were mixed into sentences which frolicked and dabbled in ideas to the point of incoherent babbling:

As with the event horizon of a black hole, there seems to be no possible communication between us and a Singularity. Our merely human reality is swallowed in an Einsteinian warp, and not so much an informative photon can creep back to us. However, although the approach of a Vinegean Singularity is easy to dramatize, it's not really relevant to what might really happen in a real posthuman world.

Say what?

Despite frequent confusing passages, this book has some incredible moments which make it well worth struggling through the mucky parts. Oddly, there is even a lengthy description of the conflicts in Chechnya where Sterling writes clearly and vividly, making me wish he authored my high school World History textbook.

[Natalie]

What an interesting and informative book! It was not at all what I expected it to be, but I enjoyed it none the less. Bruce Sterling takes a break from science fiction to write a non-fiction book about the future. From genetics to blobjects to the New World Disorder to the infocalypse to the Sixth Mass Extinction, Sterling touches on so many different aspects of what the future will be like. It deserves the awards that it has won.

[Todd · Rating 3 out of 5]

Reasonably thought provoking, and prescient in a number of ways (this book is what, something like 14 years old now, so we're a good chunk of the way along that 50 year timeline), but very uneven and ultimately quite thin in places. The good parts are great, but there are a lot of areas that aren't really up to snuff.

[Brendan · Rating 3 out of 5]

It's almost like the future is writing itself to Sterling's specifications sometimes. He also specifically mentioned ' ... HIV in the blood supply ' as an indicator of ' a radical level of postindustrial instability
'

( Which is how , in the end , I look at it too now )

[Joe · Rating 2 out of 5]

Futurist writing just isn't my thing. I've never read this guy's fiction, but the writing style here was really frustrating. Many convoluted sentences that used a ton of words to say nothing. Not for me.

[Matt · Rating 4 out of 5]

A good book to read before writing science fiction, even though it's out of date

[Gerald Lucas · Rating 3 out of 5]

Some great stuff here, especially his introduction and chapter on germtech.

[Greg]

Accessible futurism

[Annie · Rating 3 out of 5]

Bruce Sterling is a fascinating futurist with interesting dazzling speculations about our world that gave pause

[Oliver Thylmann · Rating 2 out of 5]

Should read this again in 50 years ;)

[Nunya · Rating 4 out of 5]

A mixed book. Not sure I "get" or agree with most of it. But it's a view, and a worthy one, to hold in one's head with the others, as one figures out where we are and where we're going.

[A · Rating 4 out of 5]

Tomorrow is definitely now. This book was written 10 years ago and is still prescient.

[Dave Peticolas · Rating 3 out of 5]

Sterling is the best sort of futurist. Neither wide-eyed with wonder, nor sounding the drumbeat of doom, he just seems to geniunely want to figure out what is coming next. And he's funny, too.

[Ihor Kolesnyk · Rating 4 out of 5]

Цікава книга для тих, хто любить футурологію, фантастику та Стерлінга як письменника. І для тих, хто хоче порівняти прогноз із сучасною ситуацією.

[Wiley Combs · Rating 3 out of 5]

Meh.

[Bria · Rating 2 out of 5]

This book is a lot more about Bruce Sterling than I had hoped for.