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Possible Futures Series
Japan: The Precarious Future
On March 11, 2011, a 9.0 earthquake off Japan’s northeast coast triggered a tsunami that killed more than 20,000 people, displaced 600,000, and caused billions of dollars in damage as well as a nuclear meltdown of three reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Japan, the world’s third largest economy, was already grappling with recovery from both its own economic recession of the 1990s and the global recession following the US-driven financial crisis of 2008 when the disaster hit, changing its fortunes yet again. This small, populous Asian nation—once thought to be a contender for the role of the world’s number one power—now faces a world of uncertainty. Japan’s economy has shrunk, China has challenged its borders, and it faces perilous demographic adjustments from decreased fertility and an aging populace, with the country’s population expected to drop to less than 100 million by 2048.
In The Precarious Future, a group of distinguished scholars of Japanese economics, politics, law, and society examine the various roads that might lie ahead. Will Japan face a continued erosion of global economic and political power, particularly as China’s outlook improves exponentially? Or will it find a way to protect its status as an important player in global affairs? Contributors explore issues such as national security, political leadership, manufacturing prowess, diplomacy, population decline, and gender equality in politics and the workforce, all in an effort to chart the possible futures for Japan. Both a roadmap for change and a look at how Japan arrived at its present situation, this collection of thought-provoking analyses will be essential for understanding the current landscape and future prospects of this world power.
In The Precarious Future, a group of distinguished scholars of Japanese economics, politics, law, and society examine the various roads that might lie ahead. Will Japan face a continued erosion of global economic and political power, particularly as China’s outlook improves exponentially? Or will it find a way to protect its status as an important player in global affairs? Contributors explore issues such as national security, political leadership, manufacturing prowess, diplomacy, population decline, and gender equality in politics and the workforce, all in an effort to chart the possible futures for Japan. Both a roadmap for change and a look at how Japan arrived at its present situation, this collection of thought-provoking analyses will be essential for understanding the current landscape and future prospects of this world power.
- GenresJapan
384 pages, Hardcover
First published December 15, 2015
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Displaying 1 - 5 of 5 reviews
October 2, 2018
Fascinating case study of modern Japan (up to 2015), broken into concise topics explored by knowledgeable writers with diverse backgrounds. Some notables:
Shirahase discusses a Japanese society that was never as egalitarian and homogenous as claimed or believed, riding an economic wave thought to last forever that bred complacency and an unwillingness to enact reforms and create plans needed for the future. The failure to address immigration reform threatens the future of the country, all while approaching an era of an aging population and low birth rate. The people struggle to protect their homogeneity, with extinction looming to their existing way of life.
Allison points out that connectivity to future roles creates anxiety in workers and citizens when it falls short of societal expectations, with such pressure intentionally and ideologically applied. Compounding the issue is the traditional role of the home and genders still holds powerful sway, even as the economy shifted more neoliberal, meaning the expectation for both parents to work and rely on themselves for success more than the state.
Osawa & Kingston discuss corporations seizing on new trends and government-backed policy changes using irregular workers as cost-cutting measures against sustaining or growing the regular workforce; particularly powerful for limiting the impact of women in the economy. This is something every company does, and will do, when the defining economic system of capitalism says the short-term profits outweigh long-term growth and sustained social responsibility.
Kano piece about how a legacy of state-sponsored feminism suffering for legitimacy due to the pre-WW2 history of women’s groups forced to ally with state and militaristic factions to survive and have any hope of influencing policies; outlier groups failed. Contrasting point shows men not seen as taking careers seriously even while encouraged to spend more time with the family. Women told a family focus was not enough to fulfill them while working outside the home judged to be destroying the family. All to protect a traditional view of the family and gender roles that was never a majority of families in the country.
Hymans discusses the dysfunctional nuclear energy policy system, already adversarial and convoluted before the 2011 Fukushima disaster: entrenched public and private players (plus the disparate anti-nuclear groups) with veto power over policy meant there was little agreement on reform, the future of the energy sector, and positive engagement with the public resulting in the people not only vehemently opposed to nuclear energy on often outdated information about the risks, but shaken in their respect for government to effectively manage the sector and deal with emergencies.
Siembieda and Hayashi stress the need for disaster management agencies and policies to remain flexible to the changing requirements on the ground, have the authority to act quickly and decisively without waiting for permission from a central power, and gather information and aid (physical, financial, etc.) from myriad sources such as other government entities, private groups, and non-profits.
Fujimoto and Baldwin: “In the interest of the next generation’s living standards, lower wages cannot be a long-term remedy.” – bad for the workers, bad for the company, bad for the industry, bad for society. Prescient to the current US position: “What a perverse irony if corporate leadership uses a tax break to build new factories abroad while closing domestic plants!” and “Lowering taxes for managements that have lost faith in manufacturing here may just allow them to retain more earnings and pay higher dividends.”
Meyer shows that modern Japan wants to be a strong civilian power, preferring dialog over military deterrence or conflict, hefting its economic might to help solve the world’s (or region’s) problems unfettered by any ideological message (any deeper than the accompanying prestige for being helpful), and the changing narrative involving providing for stronger military options outside its national borders.
Repeta and Jones thoroughly describe the dangers of the ruling LDP party’s long-term goal of revising the constitution from a universal human rights’ focus to one of nationalism, preferring public order over individual rights.
Shirahase discusses a Japanese society that was never as egalitarian and homogenous as claimed or believed, riding an economic wave thought to last forever that bred complacency and an unwillingness to enact reforms and create plans needed for the future. The failure to address immigration reform threatens the future of the country, all while approaching an era of an aging population and low birth rate. The people struggle to protect their homogeneity, with extinction looming to their existing way of life.
Allison points out that connectivity to future roles creates anxiety in workers and citizens when it falls short of societal expectations, with such pressure intentionally and ideologically applied. Compounding the issue is the traditional role of the home and genders still holds powerful sway, even as the economy shifted more neoliberal, meaning the expectation for both parents to work and rely on themselves for success more than the state.
Osawa & Kingston discuss corporations seizing on new trends and government-backed policy changes using irregular workers as cost-cutting measures against sustaining or growing the regular workforce; particularly powerful for limiting the impact of women in the economy. This is something every company does, and will do, when the defining economic system of capitalism says the short-term profits outweigh long-term growth and sustained social responsibility.
Kano piece about how a legacy of state-sponsored feminism suffering for legitimacy due to the pre-WW2 history of women’s groups forced to ally with state and militaristic factions to survive and have any hope of influencing policies; outlier groups failed. Contrasting point shows men not seen as taking careers seriously even while encouraged to spend more time with the family. Women told a family focus was not enough to fulfill them while working outside the home judged to be destroying the family. All to protect a traditional view of the family and gender roles that was never a majority of families in the country.
Hymans discusses the dysfunctional nuclear energy policy system, already adversarial and convoluted before the 2011 Fukushima disaster: entrenched public and private players (plus the disparate anti-nuclear groups) with veto power over policy meant there was little agreement on reform, the future of the energy sector, and positive engagement with the public resulting in the people not only vehemently opposed to nuclear energy on often outdated information about the risks, but shaken in their respect for government to effectively manage the sector and deal with emergencies.
Siembieda and Hayashi stress the need for disaster management agencies and policies to remain flexible to the changing requirements on the ground, have the authority to act quickly and decisively without waiting for permission from a central power, and gather information and aid (physical, financial, etc.) from myriad sources such as other government entities, private groups, and non-profits.
Fujimoto and Baldwin: “In the interest of the next generation’s living standards, lower wages cannot be a long-term remedy.” – bad for the workers, bad for the company, bad for the industry, bad for society. Prescient to the current US position: “What a perverse irony if corporate leadership uses a tax break to build new factories abroad while closing domestic plants!” and “Lowering taxes for managements that have lost faith in manufacturing here may just allow them to retain more earnings and pay higher dividends.”
Meyer shows that modern Japan wants to be a strong civilian power, preferring dialog over military deterrence or conflict, hefting its economic might to help solve the world’s (or region’s) problems unfettered by any ideological message (any deeper than the accompanying prestige for being helpful), and the changing narrative involving providing for stronger military options outside its national borders.
Repeta and Jones thoroughly describe the dangers of the ruling LDP party’s long-term goal of revising the constitution from a universal human rights’ focus to one of nationalism, preferring public order over individual rights.
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December 18, 2020I won't keep you in suspense: this is a dry, academic text, rendered somewhat stale, no less, by events of the past few years. Obviously, I was hoping for more when I came across an essay highlighting some of the demographic findings in The Atlantic earlier this summer. In fact, I had high hopes of being able to assign many of the essays, if not the entire book, to my students next spring. Given the readability of such trade-centric volumes as Borderless Economies, this didn't seem unreasonable.
Unfortunately, most of the essays in Japan: The Precarious Future - particularly those that do not deal directly with demographics - were too dry to hold my attention, let alone that of my students. What's more, given the evolution of the geopolitical situation in the past year, from the Philippines and the South China Sea, to North Korea, to our own contributions to world instability, many of the essays read as woefully out-of-date. Although the topics remain timely - Japan will face future natural disasters; a visionary PM is still needed to shift the economy; questions of a Japanese military have perhaps never been more relevant - too much that has happened is not included for me to feel that there is real, ongoing value in the essays Frank Baldwin and Annie Allison have edited here.
Unless you are a scholar of all things Japanese, with an insatiable appetite for anything to do with Nihon, it's probably best to skip this one.
No stars. (But who gives stars to academic essays, anyway?)
Unfortunately, most of the essays in Japan: The Precarious Future - particularly those that do not deal directly with demographics - were too dry to hold my attention, let alone that of my students. What's more, given the evolution of the geopolitical situation in the past year, from the Philippines and the South China Sea, to North Korea, to our own contributions to world instability, many of the essays read as woefully out-of-date. Although the topics remain timely - Japan will face future natural disasters; a visionary PM is still needed to shift the economy; questions of a Japanese military have perhaps never been more relevant - too much that has happened is not included for me to feel that there is real, ongoing value in the essays Frank Baldwin and Annie Allison have edited here.
Unless you are a scholar of all things Japanese, with an insatiable appetite for anything to do with Nihon, it's probably best to skip this one.
No stars. (But who gives stars to academic essays, anyway?)
October 15, 2017
somewhat obsolete by now (2017)
June 14, 2023
In the beginning, it was good. Then it got bad. But still good.
March 1, 2017
What can you do for a potential demographic and social reform when the biggest obstacle for that is the very conservative culture and inward-looking society of your country?
Displaying 1 - 5 of 5 reviews